Balon Greyjoys master plan

[Shpati]

He is kind of stupid tbh. And I'm not just being biased because it was the Starks. If it was Stannis, yea, I'd be biased.

But there was no "master plan". He was just preying on the weak. The North was open, and he was an opportunist. But he never offered Tywin a deal, he was just giving him favors, assuming if he beat one of Tywin's biggest enemies, he would let the Iron Islands be its own kingdom with some of the North.

So that leaves 2 scenarios:

1) Tywin might have offered a deal. But that would require the Ironborn leaving the Northern castles so the Boltons can assume their roles as Warden of the North. I doubt Balon would have accepted, because if he did, what would be the point of his "rebellion"?

2) Defeat the Boltons, lose his Tywin "Alliance", and likely still have to fight off Stannis. I doubt Balon could have won this battle.

It would have been good for Stannis though. Winterfell would've been an easy win for him. He could've rallied the North and maybe kill Ramsey or siege the Dreadfort while Roose and his men were held at or near the Neck. Unless I'm missing something because I don't think Bolton has a good fleet to get around the Neck with his big army.

[Frey Pie]

Sorry didn't understand that part.

At the time of balons decision Tywin had robb and some 30000 men, renly and about 80000 and Stannis and 5000

[Lady Blackmont]

On paper. Reality was very different. Dorne and the Vale did not and would not supply men. The Stormlords had losses. Stannis was still at large. I completely agree that Robb was up against it at this stage but he's up against a much depleted west, the Stormlords who switched sides, and the hugely strong Tyrells. Balon siding with Robb evens the balance quite a bit here

I fully agree. Even so, I have doubts that enough could have been done in time. Balon was too unyielding.

[joluoto2]

The only good move the Ironborns had was doing nothing. The Ironborns declaring a rebellion would inevitably in the long run always mean them just being invaded by the mainland forces again.

[Hangover of the Morning]

I tried really hard to find some sort of mitigating circumstances for Balon, something that would make his actions at least understandable if not smart but it's really difficult. The only think I can come up with is that given the Ironborn culture, religion and respect for paying the iron price, it was a win win scenario for Balon, even though it would have been an eventual disaster for the Islands.

Balon's first rebellion was a complete clusterfuck on every front as the Ironborn were promptly defeated in a pretty humiliating way. Balon lost all his heirs but for a daughter, the IB suffered terrible loses and Balon was forced to bend the knee and lick the boots of his enemies. Despite all that, his fellow IB worship Balon for his bold, albeit idiotic, move, and where likely to do the same no matter the outcome of the second rebellion.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

Balon was an idiot. He's the guy who attacked the united continental Westeros in the First IB rebellion somehow not understanding that waging war against someone who out numbers you two dozen to 1 is plain suicide.

The only marginally smart option available was attacking the Westerlands and hoping the Seven Kingdoms completely fall apart or that Renly allows him to hold onto Casterly Rock. I say marginally because that's the only option that had a snowballs chance in hell of succeeding.

Any attack on the North means the united south rolls in after the war is done.

Edit: Well Balon could have done the smart thing and negotiated with Tywin and Renly for the North in which case the Greyjoys could have become Lord Paramounts of the North in Roose Bolton's place with all that entails.

But of course that would require Balon to fully understand the IB situation and thus abandon the Iron Price!!! nonsense.

[John Doe]

Well let's see how is plan worked out as long as he lived (afterwards, many of his men retreated which was why the Ironborn were kicked out of the North):

- He captured Moat Cailin, the gate to the North

- He took Torrhen's Square, seat of House Tallhart

- He took Deepwood Motte, seat of House Glover

- He pretty much owned the Stony Shore

- He probably could have taken Bear Island too, and who knows what else

- He had nothing to fear from the Northeners, the worst that could happen was him losing his gained castles, the Island were save

And now compare it to what he would have got by being Robb's ally:

-War with Tywin "too cunning" Lannister

- War with the Tyrells and the Redwyne fleet

- Robb would still have been killed, resulting in the Ironborn not having an ally left

- The risk of getting reyned

You cannot blame Balon for betting on Robb losing the war, he was right, after all.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

Well let's see how is plan worked out as long as he lived (afterwards, many of his men retreated which was why the Ironborn were kicked out of the North):

- He captured Moat Cailin, the gate to the North

- He took Torrhen's Square, seat of House Tallhart

- He took Deepwood Motte, seat of House Glover

- He pretty much owned the Stony Shore

- He probably could have taken Bear Island too, and who knows what else

- He had nothing to fear from the Northeners, the worst that could happen was him losing his gained castles, the Island were save

And now compare it to what he would have got by being Robb's ally:

-War with Tywin "too cunning" Lannister

- War with the Tyrells and the Redwyne fleet

- Robb would still have been killed, resulting in the Ironborn not having an ally left

- The risk of getting reyned

You cannot blame Balon for betting on Robb losing the war, he was right, after all.

The problem wasn't conquering the North- it was keeping it while being independent. If Balon would have negotiated with Tywin and/or Renly for the Lord Paramountship of the North in exchange for entering the war then Balon's plan would have been viable.

The whole independence stuff was grossly unrealistic and delusional- Balon couldn't keep the North and fight the south and without Robb Stark winning the Seven Kingdoms wouldn't fragment meaning the full might of the South would eventually kick his ass.

[John Doe]

The problem wasn't conquering the North- it was keeping it while being independent. If Balon would have negotiated with Tywin and/or Renly for the Lord Paramountship of the North in exchange for entering the war then Balon's plan would have been viable.

The whole independence stuff was grossly unrealistic and delusional- Balon couldn't keep the North and fight the south and without Robb Stark winning the Seven Kingdoms wouldn't fragment meaning the full might of the South would eventually kick his ass.

He still had better prospect of keeping conquests in the North than keeping any conquests in the Westerlands though. The only slim chance he would have had was betting on Robb Stark winning against the south, but he didn't, and he was right in the end, Robb Stark lost.

[Ser Eric]

And now compare it to what he would have got by being Robb's ally:

-War with the Tywin "too cunning" Lannister

- War with the Tyrells and the Redwyne fleet

- Robb would still have been killed, resulting in the Ironborn not having an ally left

- The risk of getting reyned

You cannot blame Balon for betting on Robb losing the war, he was right, after all.

1. The same cunning Tywin who's already 2 different battles with the even more cunning Robb. The same Tywin who's trapped between armies with a further impending threat from Stannis. The same Tywin who's son is captive with Robb. The same Tywin who Balon had no problem in attacking the first time round when Tywn had the entire realm behind compared to a realm in disarray this time around. Sorry, this is a very poor reasoning. He had nothing to fear from Tywin this time round.

2.War with the Tyrells and the Redwyne fleet is a given if he's to declare independence. Renly wasn't going to let Balon have the North.

3. What? How does Balon know Robb is getting killed?

4.He didn't get Reyned the first time round, did he? And the Lannister fleet is no great shakes and Stannis has the royal fleet.

Also, Robb losing the war =/=Robb losing the North. There's a big difference.

It's funny how everyone ignores that the reason the North becomes crippled is down to Theon, not Balon. If Balon's plan had been followed to the dot the results would have been nowhere near as good.

It's fairly simple,

1.Declare Independence = You make enemies of every other region.

2.Declare Independence + Temporarily Ally with Robb = You make enemies of every other region except the North and the Riverlands.

Of course, the basic premise of point 2 would have held true if he had allied with anyone else besides Robb as well. But he didn't do that either. He didn't ally with any of the kings, did their dirty work and then made demands of alliance. How fooking silly is that?!?

[John Doe]

1. The same cunning Tywin who's already 2 different battles with the even more cunning Robb. The same Tywin who's trapped between armies with a further impending threat from Stannis. The same Tywin who's son is captive with Robb. The same Tywin who Balon had no problem in attacking the first time round when Tywn had the entire realm behind compared to a realm in disarray this time around. Sorry, this is a very poor reasoning. He had nothing to fear from Tywin this time round.

2.War with the Tyrells and the Redwyne fleet is a given if he's to declare independence. Renly wasn't going to let Balon have the North.

3. What? How does Balon know Robb is getting killed?

4.He didn't get Reyned the first time round, did he? And the Lannister fleet is no great shakes and Stannis has the royal fleet.

Also, Robb losing the war =/=Robb losing the North. There's a big difference.

It's funny how everyone ignores that the reason the North becomes crippled is down to Theon, not Balon. If Balon's plan had been followed to the dot the results would have been nowhere near as good.

It's fairly simple,

1.Declare Independence = You make enemies of every other region.

2.Declare Independence + Temporarily Ally with Robb = You make enemies of every other region except the North and the Riverlands.

Of course, the basic premise of point 2 would have held true if he had allied with anyone else besides Robb as well. But he didn't do that either. He didn't ally with any of the kings, did their dirty work and then made demands of alliance. How fooking silly is that?!?

1. The same cunning Tywin who outsmarted Robb using Walder Frey and Roose Bolton as catspaw. He betted on the right horse, that's all.

2. Mace Tyrell disagress with you, he actually said he doesn't care about the North and would let him keep it. The farer away the lands Balon conquers are from the Reach, the more likely is the Reach to let him keep them.

3. He sees Robb was a boy who would eventually get outsmarted by Tywin, and he was right. He obviously didn't know about the RW, but he made the right bet. It was a gamble, but it would have been a gamble the other way around too.

4. The Royal fleet is on the other side of the continent. The first time around it was generous Robert who pardoned Balon, not Tywin, who is not likely to let Balon get away again. And the Lannisters at least have a fleet, compare that to the Northeners, who have no means to strike back at all.

[Ser Eric]

1. The same cunning Tywin who outsmarted Robb using Walder Frey and Roose Bolton as catspaw. He betted on the right horse, that's all.

2. Mace Tyrell disagress with you, he actually said he doesn't care about the North and would let him keep it. The farer away the lands Balon conquers are from the Reach, the more likely is the Reach to let him keep them.

3. He sees Robb was a boy who would eventually get outsmarted by Tywin, and he was right. He obviously didn't know about the RW, but he made the right bet. It was a gamble, but it would have been a gamble the other way around too.

4. The Royal fleet is on the other side of the continent. The first time around it was generous Robert who pardoned Balon, not Tywin, who is not likely to let Balon get away again. And the Lannisters at least have a fleet, compare that to the Northeners, who have no means to strike back at all.

1. How's that relevant in any way shape or form? We're talking about the point in the story when Balon declares independence not a 1000 pages beyond it. At that point, Robb had beaten Tywin twice and Tywin was in a real fix.

2. Again, irrelevant. Renly was king when Balon declared independence. He explicitly said he had no intention of giving up any part of the kingdom.

3. Despite Robb getting the better of Tywin twice and capturing his own son which is a huge plus. He wanted revenge against the Starks, that's quite plain enough from the books. That's why he attacked the North.

4.Lannister fleet might as well not exist when compared to the Iron Fleet. Besides, Tywin was in no position to 'reyne'. anyone at that point. If Renly had won the war, which looked very likely, then he could have freed the Redwyne Fleet to attack Balon. Considering how Stannis had no issues in disposing off Victarion with a smaller fleet, the Redwyne fleet would have done significant damage.

Allying with Renly and then attacking the North was the best option although them keeping the North would have been impossible no matter what.

Declaring independence was a brain dead move by both Balon and Robb.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

He still had better prospect of keeping conquests in the North than keeping any conquests in the Westerlands though. The only slim chance he would have had was betting on Robb Stark winning against the south, but he didn't, and he was right in the end, Robb Stark lost.

Except he had zero prospects of keeping the North if he declared independence. The Iron Throne would have to bring him to heel which would be made easy because keeping the North means having his armies spread out all over the place. Pursuing mutually contradictory objectives isn't a master plan.

Yeah if he negotiated for the role of LP with someone then taking the North would be smart. As it is he served the interests of Robb's enemies for free- no wonder Tywin was gleeful at not having to pay Balon for his services since Balon was doing what Tywin wanted anyways and was weakening his own power in the process.

[John Doe]

1. How's that relevant in any way shape or form? We're talking about the point in the story when Balon declares independence not a 1000 pages beyond it. At that point, Robb had beaten Tywin twice and Tywin was in a real fix.

2. Again, irrelevant. Renly was king when Balon declared independence. He explicitly said he had no intention of giving up any part of the kingdom.

3. Despite Robb getting the better of Tywin twice and capturing his own son which is a huge plus. He wanted revenge against the Starks, that's quite plain enough from the books. That's why he attacked the North.

4.Lannister fleet might as well not exist when compared to the Iron Fleet. Besides, Tywin was in no position to 'reyne'. anyone at that point. If Renly had won the war, which looked very likely, then he could have freed the Redwyne Fleet to attack Balon. Considering how Stannis had no issues in disposing off Victarion with a smaller fleet, the Redwyne fleet would have done significant damage.

Allying with Renly and then attacking the North was the best option although them keeping the North would have been impossible no matter what.

Declaring independence was a brain dead move by both Balon and Robb.

1. And still TYwin won because he was more cunning. Seems like Balon was smart enough to make the right bet..

2. Not sure about the timeline, and Renly was going to let Robb keep his title. He would have done the same for Balon.

3. That was a reason too, yes. The other reason was that he thought Tywin was going to win. Who won? Tywin. You can't blame him for making the right guess.

4. Robb was not going to kneel to Renly, as it seemed. Renly would not attack Balon. And we don't even know if Renly was still alive when Balon made his decision, he probably was not.

And a small fleet is still harder to beat than no fleet, the North was ripe for the taking, Balon saw that.

Except he had zero prospects of keeping the North if he declared independence. The Iron Throne would have to bring him to heel which would be made easy because keeping the North means having his armies spread out all over the place. Pursuing mutually contradictory objectives isn't a master plan.

Yeah if he negotiated for the role of LP with someone then taking the North would be smart. As it is he served the interests of Robb's enemies for free- no wonder Tywin was gleeful at not having to pay Balon for his services since Balon was doing what Tywin wanted anyways and was weakening his own power in the process.

Where are the armies of the Iron Throne marching on the North to retake Balons conquests? There aren't any. And the IT is much more likely to let Balon keep the North than to let him keep the Westerlands.

[Ser Eric]

1. And still TYwin won because he was more cunning. Seems like Balon was smart enough to make the right bet..

2. Not sure about the timeline, and Renly was going to let Robb keep his title. He would have done the same for Balon.

3. That was a reason too, yes. The reason was that he thought Tywin was going to win. Who won? Tywin. Robb had 12.000 men south, Tywin had still more man power than Robb.

4. Robb was not going to kneel to Renly, as it seemed. Renly would not attack Balon. And we don't even know if Renly was still alive when Balon made his decision, he probably was not.

And a small fleet is still harder to beat than no fleet, the North was ripe for the taking, Balon saw that.

1. Cannot believe you are still arguing this point. Robb losing and Tywin winning was down to all sorts shit happening that no one could have predicted let alone a knob like Balon. No one could have predicted Stannis had a snatch baby up his sleeve or that Tyreels would combne their strength Lannisters beyond that. What is relevant is Tywin's position at the time and it was shit.

2. The title in only name. Renly wanted Robb to swear fealty to him which is all that matters i.e no independence.

3. That was the only reason actually. The rest didn't make sense.

4. That makes no sense. Renly would have attacked both Robb and/or Balon in time after he had secured KL. And Renly had a massive fleet so holding Moat Calin was less than useless.

The North was impossible to take let alone keep. Probably the same for the Westerlands but on a lesser scale.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

And a small fleet is still harder to beat than no fleet, the North was ripe for the taking, Balon saw that.

Where are the armies of the Iron Throne marching on the North to retake Balons conquests? There aren't any. And the IT is much more likely to let Balon keep the North than to let him keep the Westerlands.

The Boltons and Freys dealt with most of the Ironborn still present in the north so there was no need to deploy Lannister and Tyrell men.

The IT will only let Balon keep something if he bends the knee. He didn't instead going for independence while at the same time attacking the only other party fighting for independence. The situation after the first attacks on the North can be summed up as such- if Tywin wins, Balon loses, if Robb wins, Balon loses, if Renly wins, Balon loses, if Stannis wins, Balon loses, if all of them somehow lose then there's still a great chance of Balon losing unless the realm completely falls apart.

Balon's master plan was suicide.

[Ser Eric]

if Tywin wins, Balon loses, if Robb wins, Balon loses, if Renly wins, Balon loses, if Stannis wins, Balon loses, if all of them somehow lose then there's still a great chance of Balon losing unless the realm completely falls apart.

Balon's master plan was suicide.

Well summed up!

If Balon somehow does the impossible (he couldn't) and take all the North then the winter would have done for him.

[John Doe]

Robbs master plan was suicide too.

If Tywin wins, Robb loses, if Balon wins, Robb loses, if Renly wins, Robb loses, if Stannis wins, Robb loses.

What a fool.

[joluoto2]

Yeah, I Think the only reason he chose the North was because the North lack naval power on the western coast, making a Northern counter invasion impossible.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

Well summed up!

If Balon somehow does the impossible (he couldn't) and take all the North then the winter would have done for him.

Well bending the knee and making a deal with Tywin would have brought him in a similar but better position to Roose Bolton- if Euron didn't FM him he didn't fall repeatedly from tall bridges. So yeah he might have been able to hold the North. Might. As long as he was smart enough to negotiate and bend the knee instead of screaming 'We do not sow.'