Why would someone like Varys help someone like Aerys?

[Ingelheim]

Like Carter hiring Zbigniew Brzezinski.

 

lol

[idio]

So, people who were killing Robert's men were safer than Varys? The thing is that Robert, by the time of Sack, already made clear that he will not be killing people for their past allegiance. This is plainly said in the books.

Yes, absolutely. Robert started a freaking rebellion against the crown, upending the natural order of the realm. It is completely understandable for the vassal lords who took up arms to defend the crown to be pardoned. For obvious political reasons. Robert needs to rule and to be accepted by his lower lords to forge a peace and begin to heal the realm after the Mad King. This is a "no shit" proposition versus simply executing or attempting to exterminate every house that simply "did its duty" to the crown, something he will hope they do for him in his own reign.

Secondly, Varys is the one whispering in the Mad King's ear as he burns people alive. I think Robert just -might- have a separate decision making process for the inner circle that enabled Aerys' insanity and depravity. A blanket pardon applying to every single person in Westeros is dumb and unlikely.

I stand by my point that Varys is very lucky to be alive and was in true peril of not being certain of his future position.

[Facebookless Man]

 

Nothing suggests that Rhaegar shared his thoughts about prophecy and stuff with anyone other than his closest confidantes.

 

Illyrio mentions that the dragon has three heads. Twice. While specifically talking about Aegon and Dany.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

 

Illyrio mentions that the dragon has three heads. Twice. While specifically talking about Aegon and Dany.

So you are saying that the phrase "The Dragon has Three Heads" came from Rhaegar?

Aemon says it as well when talking about Daenerys and how he wished he could go to her side.

[Facebookless Man]

I'm saying it comes from prophecy.

[Faydra]

Fueling his paranoia helped Aerys only to his death. 

[Kaibaman]

I sometimes wonder and I know this is a crackpot theory but I tend to believe that perhaps Varys is actually Aerys's bastard. We do know that Aerys did have a number of mistresses even before he was king so he could have sired Varys and sent his mother overseas when she was knocked up. And years later learnt that his bastard son has become a successful information broker and decided to recruit him because not only would he be a effective Master of Whispers but is someone he is inclined to trust because he is his blood.

[bent branch]

is it accurate to say that R'hllorism is based on the belief that Azor Ahai will come again? And in the absence of the woods witch's prophecy that the prince that was promised would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella, do any characters have a reason to believe that Azor Ahai, who lived before the rise of Valyria, would be born again from the Targaryens after they had fallen from power? Bennero only became interested in Daenerys after he learned about her dragons and her penchant for freeing slaves, no?

 

When we talk about the AA/PTWP prophecy we are actually talking about 4 prophecies made at different times.

 

The first prophecy is about AA. This prophecy was made ~5,000 years ago. In this prophecy it is stated that when the long night returns some guy will be AA reborn to save the world from the dark night. At this point the prophecy could be about anyone anywhere.

 

The second prophecy is the PTWP prophecy. This prophecy dates to ~1,000 years ago. We get this date from Aemon at the same time we find out that the word in the original prophecy was dragon, not prince. At this point in the story dragons are associated exclusively with the Targaryens. However, back when the prophecy was made there was 40 families of Dragonlords in Valyria. So the prophecy could have referred to anyone within those 40 families. Since there is only one Dragonlord family left, the prophecy must refer to the Targaryens.

 

The third prophecy is the 3HotD prophecy. We don't know when this prophecy was made. Some people think it was made after the Targaryens took a three-headed dragon as their sigil, perhaps by Daeron the Drunkard (~100 years ago). I think this prophecy was made by Daenys the Dreamer about the same time she foretold the Doom of Valyria (~400 years ago). I think we will find out exactly what this prophecy said when Marwyn reaches Dany.

 

The fourth prophecy is the Wood's Witch's prophecy (~60 years ago). Here the field of candidates is reduced even further. She stated that the PTWP would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella. There are only six people who descended from Aerys and Rhaella: Rhaegar, Viserys, Dany, Rhaenys, Aegon and Jon. Of these only two are definitely alive with Aegon being a possible third. Actually, I'm going to change this to only Dany being definitely alive. Maybe Jon and Aegon are alive.

 

So, who knows what? At one point I did an extensive analysis of the text to see if I could tell who knew about each of these prophecies by looking at who mentioned what. To answer your first question, yes, the R'hllor religion is based at least upon the first prophecy. It is a messianic slave religion about a savior who will free them all from their chains. The imagery they use is based upon a long night, long winter, etc. It is obvious that they are basing their theology off the first prophecy. There is some evidence that the red priest are also aware of the second prophecy, but nothing definitive. They definitely do not know about the third or fourth prophecy.

 

Moving on to Melisandre. There is no question that Melisandre knows about the first and second prophecies. Aemon makes it clear that she knows and understands these prophecies as well as anyone. Melisandre knows these prophecies refer to the Targaryens and that is why she fixated upon Stannis. His bloodline is right and he was living on Dragonstone, the place of smoke and salt. This is also the reason Melisandre is so confused about seeing Jon in her flames. Because she doesn't know that Jon is a Targaryen, she doesn't understand how he can be associated with the prophecy. It is obvious that Melisandre is unaware of the third and fourth prophecies, because she is looking for only one person and she also thinks that Stannis can fulfill the prophecy. When Melisandre went to Asshai, she learned shadowbinding and studied the ancient texts. One can assume that she learned about the connection between the prophecy and the Targaryens there. This means anyone with an interest in the subject could also find this information in Asshai.

 

So who knows about the 3HotD prophecy? Strangely enough the ONLY people in the story that refer to this prophecy are Aemon, Rhaegar and Illyrio(!). Because of this, I think this prophecy came from one of the Targaryen seers, either Daeron or Daenys, with my bet being on Daenys. The only thing we really know about this prophecy is that it appears to say that instead of only one Targaryen, there will be three Targaryens who save the world. What is most interesting about this is that Illyrio appears to be aware of this prophecy. How did he learn about it? My guess is that he learned about it from Varys. Who in turn learned about it from being in Aerys court. The Targaryens never made an attempt to keep these prophecies secret. Knowledge being obscure because most people don't care to go looking for it is not the same as knowledge that is secret. Therefore, if Varys had an interest in these prophecies he could research about them to his hearts content while serving Aerys. No one would even look at him twice for doing this.

 

So who knows about the Wood's Witch prophecy? Everyone who knows that Jaehaerys ordered Aerys and Rhaella to marry based upon the prophecy. My guess would be a whole lot of people. This had to have been the subject of gossip at the time (you know those crazy Targaryens). Again, this information was not secret. Varys wouldn't have had to even go looking for this information, imo.

 

So, returning to the OP, why would someone like Varys help someone like Aerys? My answer was to serve the family from which the savior would arise. How would Varys know the Targaryens were the family from which the savior would arise? Varys learned about the prophesied savior on the street corners of Essos. He may have learned that family was Targaryen from the R'hllorists (as I said there is some evidence, but nothing definitive that they know the prophecy refers to Targaryens) or he may have learned about it from the ancient texts of Asshai, like Melisandre. Either way, once he had found himself in Aerys court, he could learn about the third and fourth prophecies, which it appears he did since Illyrio could have only know about the third prophecy through Varys.

 

The only remaining question is, would Varys care enough about this savior to devote the last twenty years of his life to it? My answer is yes and that will have to be enough for now, because explaining why Varys cares about these prophecies at all is another long post (as well as being another topic).

[Facebookless Man]

So who knows about the 3HotD prophecy? Strangely enough the ONLY people in the story that refer to this prophecy are Aemon, Rhaegar and Illyrio(!). 

 

And the Undying Ones.

[bent branch]

 

And the Undying Ones.

 

Ah, you're right. I have a tendency to forget about them, because I assume they learned about the 3HotD through supernatural means rather than hearing or reading about it, but they do mention it. I suppose that Illyrio could have learned about the 3HotD through them, but Varys seems a more straight forward answer.

[Facebookless Man]

True, actually they may not even know what it is they are showing and talking about.