Why would someone like Varys help someone like Aerys?

[The Fresh PtwP]

1.) Varys is not guaranteed survival with Tywin sacking the city

 

2.) (speculation) The baby-swap wasn't fully ready, maybe plans/concerns for Elia and Rhaenys

 

3.) (speculation) Varys said to close the gate in a way that would lead Aerys to open the gate

[bent branch]

 

Where does it say that the prophesized savior of the Rhlorrists ought to be Targaryens?

 

I don't know for sure. Where did Melisandre get her information? I am being a bit sarcastic here since everyone acts like these prophecies are secret knowledge when there is a whole large religion based upon them. If Varys wants to know about these prophecies there is no one who will tell him no. They are not protected knowledge. It is silly to think that a man like Varys (who can find out just about anything he wants to know) can't find out information that no one is even trying to keep secret.

[Woofless]

 

Why would someone like Varys help someone like Aerys?

 

Because their names rhyme?   (Sorta)

[Fire Eater]

 

First things first, long time no see, my friend :)

 

Now, I do believe that Varys intended Targs to go, but at the time of RR, I am not sure that was the game. Hear me for a moment. What we know about Varys? He "helped" Aerys in several occasions. He stopped the Harrenhal coup d'etat, he told Aerys not to open the gates when Tywin was coming. This indeed aligns with being loyal to Aerys, but in that moment, I think that is the game. Varys certainly played the game even that, prepping the terf for Blackfyres. But how to do it? By maintaining weak power of the Throne, even allowing some power blocks to be created in the meantime. He stopped Rhaegar from consolidating Targ power (the last one Targs had) and then the war started. It all led to the day of Sack. I am inclined to believe that Varys intentionally said Aerys to close the gates, not just to leave Tywin outside, but also to cause the battle outside the city. We know that Ned and Tywin were running to the city, we know Ned knew nothing about what to expect and that they were ready to fight. It only needed push in the right direction and Ned and Tywin would destroy each other. Aerys would remain on his Throne, weaker than ever, with voices for change constantly being louder and louder. So, I do believe that even that advice was nothing more but a calculated decision made in order to preserve Aerys' fainted reign.

Good to see you again too. 

 

I think Varys likely knew the Targaryen regime would be more stable under Rhaegar, and worked to undermine him, hence informing Aerys of Rhaegar's real plans at Harrenhal. I think Varys likely knew how to manipulate Aerys, and did tell him not to open the gates, but did it in a way he knew wouldn't convince Aerys making it look like he was interested in the Targaryens' survival to cover his bases. He also knew that Tywin would undoubtedly have Aegon killed, which he needed for his plan to be put into motion. 

[Mithras]

I don't know for sure. Where did Melisandre get her information? I am being a bit sarcastic here since everyone acts like these prophecies are secret knowledge when there is a whole large religion based upon them. If Varys wants to know about these prophecies there is no one who will tell him no. They are not protected knowledge. It is silly to think that a man like Varys (who can find out just about anything he wants to know) can't find out information that no one is even trying to keep secret.

 

What information does Mel have?

 

Prophecies are extremely vague and cryptic by nature. I don't think any prophecy mentioned so far in the text has any specific reference to Targaryens.

[Lord Varys]

Varys could easily have known about the Ghost's prophecy. That is really all you need to know that the promised prince would come from Aerys' line, right?

 

If Varys did indeed undermine reign of Aerys, helping to put father against son and all that, perhaps even nudging Aerys into executing Rickard and Brandon and calling for Robert and Ned's heads, then anyone advocating for this has to come up with an explanation what 'the plan' for the civil war (Dance between Rhaegar and Aerys; Robert's Rebellion) was, and how Varys and Illyrio intended to profit from that.

 

We know they later want to create a civil war to install their pretender (Aegon) on the Iron Throne. Yet there is not the slightest hint that a Blackfyre pretender or something similar was on the ready in 282 AC. If Varys and Illyrio were always working in favor of a Blackfyre restoration why didn't Varys slowly poison the Targaryen regime - first destroying Rhaegar, then getting rid of Aerys, and then further destabilizing and fracturing the Realm during the long regency of Viserys III?

 

I'm not convinced by the 'They first wanted to rid the Realm of the Targaryens before they began their Blackfyre restoration plan' explanation. That just sounds stupid. They are too smart to not combine those two plans, not to mention that they actually failed in their objective back during the Rebellion since Viserys and Daenerys survived. If revenge and/or the destruction of House Targaryen was an objective then Viserys and Dany would have been assassinated in Essos shortly after their exile began.

 

It sounds more likely to me that a lot of the bad stuff happening during Aerys' reign was actually due to Aerys' madness and paranoia rather than due to Varys' bad advice. I could be mistaken there, and while I'd agree with anyone suggesting that Yandel clearly downplays Varys' role during Aerys' last years, I don't think Pycelle's reports on the opinions of Aerys' other cronies are wrong. There were other players of the game active at this time, and their influence on Aerys shouldn't be underestimated. After all, Aerys made Chelsted and Rossart Hand, not Varys.

[Mithras]

Varys could easily have known about the Ghost's prophecy. That is really all you need to know that the promised prince would come from Aerys' line, right?

 

Nothing suggests that.

[Lord Varys]

Barristan Selmy knew. Varys could have talked to Barristan Selmy, right? Or to Aerys himself? To Rhaella? To Rhaegar? To Tywin? To anyone at court old enough to remember why Prince Jaehaerys forced Aerys to marry Rhaella? Even Yandel knows, which means that this isn't exactly a state secret.

[Mithras]

Barristan Selmy knew. Varys could have talked to Barristan Selmy, right? Or to Aerys himself? To Rhaella? To Rhaegar? To Tywin? To anyone at court old enough to remember why Prince Jaehaerys forced Aerys to marry Rhaella? Even Yandel knows, which means that this isn't exactly a state secret.

 

No, he could not.

 

Yandel does not specify the words of the woods witch.

[Lord Varys]

That doesn't mean he didn't know them, though. Besides, Yandel clearly wouldn't be Varys source on the matter - Yandel's sources would be. Yandel only illustrates that this wasn't exactly a state secret - not to mention that Varys had the means to uncover it even if it was a state secret. He had the ear of Aerys II, after all? Not to mention that the Ghost's prophecy would have been a vital part of Rhaegar's belief that he himself and later Aegon were the promised prince. It is not very likely that he was able to keep that a secret from Varys.

[Mithras]

That doesn't mean he didn't know them, though. Besides, Yandel clearly wouldn't be Varys source on the matter - Yandel's sources would be. Yandel only illustrates that this wasn't exactly a state secret - not to mention that Varys had the means to uncover it even if it was a state secret. He had the ear of Aerys II, after all? Not to mention that the Ghost's prophecy would have been a vital part of Rhaegar's belief that he himself and later Aegon were the promised prince. It is not very likely that he was able to keep that a secret from Varys.

 

Nothing suggests that Rhaegar shared his thoughts about prophecy and stuff with anyone other than his closest confidantes.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaegar didn't reach his conclusions on his own, though. Somebody would have told him about the Ghost's prophecy or else he wouldn't have had any reason to believe that either he or his son could be the promised prince. Aerys and Rhaella and other at court knew about that prophecy. Again, Varys could have spoken to Selmy who knew it for sure, or to Aerys himself. Surely you don't doubt that Aerys trusted Varys, right? And who knows, perhaps Varys even had Rhaegar's ear, not to mention Elia's (who knew about Rhaegar's belief in the prophecy).

 

Varys also knows a lot about Targaryen history he shouldn't actually be knowing unless he is in history and secret knowledge. Or do you think you learn that Aegon II fed Grand Maester Gerardys to his dragon on some street in Lys, Myr, or Pentos?

 

And one really wonders how Selmy could have known about the prophecy if it was 'a state secret' or something like that. Aerys and Rhaella were married to each other years before Barristan Selmy even joined the Kingsguard. That means that people talked about those things or else he wouldn't know.

[Mithras]

Rhaegar didn't reach his conclusions on his own, though. Somebody would have told him about the Ghost's prophecy or else he wouldn't have had any reason to believe that either he or his son could be the promised prince. Aerys and Rhaella and other at court knew about that prophecy. Again, Varys could have spoken to Selmy who knew it for sure, or to Aerys himself. Surely you don't doubt that Aerys trusted Varys, right? And who knows, perhaps Varys even had Rhaegar's ear, not to mention Elia's (who knew about Rhaegar's belief in the prophecy).

 

Varys also knows a lot about Targaryen history he shouldn't actually be knowing unless he is in history and secret knowledge. Or do you think you learn that Aegon II fed Grand Maester Gerardys to his dragon on some street in Lys, Myr, or Pentos?

 

And one really wonders how Selmy could have known about the prophecy if it was 'a state secret' or something like that. Aerys and Rhaella were married to each other years before Barristan Selmy even joined the Kingsguard. That means that people talked about those things or else he wouldn't know.

 

Selmy knows because he is a KG privy to every secret of the king. He didnot talk to random dudes in Meereen about GoHH. He talked to Dany as she inherited her father's secrets.

 

Rhaega communicated with Aemon but he might have used his own court at Dragonstone for that purpose. After all, we know that he didnot spend much time in KL.

 

Rhaegar might have learned it from Rhaella or even GoHH herself.

 

Anyone who read Gyldayn's records would know Targaryen history well enough. Varys should have done it no doubt.

[Lordsteve666]

Even if Varys is a Blackfyre or supporter, the Lannister's damn well weren't so if he got a hint of what Tywin was planning should he get into the city he'd have no guarantee of survival.
The Lannisters would likely kill everyone involved with the old regime and that would at the least put him out of a job or at worst leave him dead.

Helping Aerys would ensure his survival whilst his plans continued to be prepared.

Now that all assumes he is a Blackfyre. If he's not then it opens other options.
The fact Robert kept him on after the rebellion seems to suggest he's essentially in the same frame as the Maesters, an asset of the realm not the throne. So he could have just been doing whatever was needed to survive knowing his skills would be required after the dust settles.
And his "help" that was offered could be seen as putting ideas into the mind of Aerys who was both paranoid and unpredictable.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't know for sure. Where did Melisandre get her information? I am being a bit sarcastic here since everyone acts like these prophecies are secret knowledge when there is a whole large religion based upon them. If Varys wants to know about these prophecies there is no one who will tell him no. They are not protected knowledge. It is silly to think that a man like Varys (who can find out just about anything he wants to know) can't find out information that no one is even trying to keep secret.

is it accurate to say that R'hllorism is based on the belief that Azor Ahai will come again? And in the absence of the woods witch's prophecy that the prince that was promised would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella, do any characters have a reason to believe that Azor Ahai, who lived before the rise of Valyria, would be born again from the Targaryens after they had fallen from power? Bennero only became interested in Daenerys after he learned about her dragons and her penchant for freeing slaves, no?

[Lord Varys]

Mithras,

 

you don't know that Aerys ever spoke about the prophecy in front of Selmy, or do you? If he never did stating that he knows all the secrets of the king is irrelevant. And if he talked in front of Selmy about that, he could also have talked about in front of Varys.

 

The prophecy seems to have been a major issue during Aerys' reign since Aemon and Rhaegar didn't only confer about Aegon but also about Rhaegar being the promised prince. Which would have been before he moved to Dragonstone.

 

Rhaegar's own knowledge about the prophecy would come from his parents. There is no evidence as to whom showed him the original prophecy, but somebody must have told him about the Ghost's prophecy. The idea that she told him herself makes no sense since we have no reason to believe she continued to live at court after Summerhall. And during the first years after Summerhall would have been way too young to understand anything she said to him, anyway.

 

Gyldayn's manuscript in lost in-universe. Varys couldn't have read it since the remains Yandel has were found at the Citadel. Besides, if Varys had read a copy of the full manuscript that would most likely contain the prophecy of the Ghost of High Heart since Gyldayn's account would be much more detailed than Yandel's.

 

There is simply no reason to doubt that Varys could have known about the Targaryen obsession with prophecy and the details of the whole thing. The man is good at uncovering secrets, he has the ear and trust of King Aerys, and he believes in magic.

 

LM,

 

Mel believes Stannis is the reborn Azor Ahai as well as the promised prince, and the promised prince has Targaryen blood. She came to Dragonstone because Stannis Baratheon is a great-grandson of Aegon V.

[Mithras]

you don't know that Aerys ever spoke about the prophecy in front of Selmy, or do you? If he never did stating that he knows all the secrets of the king is irrelevant. And if he talked in front of Selmy about that, he could also have talked about in front of Varys.

 

Except Varys is not a KG and didnot swear the vows of the KG.

[Mithras]

There is no hint of Aerys speculating about prophecies. Tywin never mentioned it. Jaime never mentioned it.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Varys could easily have known about the Ghost's prophecy. That is really all you need to know that the promised prince would come from Aerys' line, right?
 
If Varys did indeed undermine reign of Aerys, helping to put father against son and all that, perhaps even nudging Aerys into executing Rickard and Brandon and calling for Robert and Ned's heads, then anyone advocating for this has to come up with an explanation what 'the plan' for the civil war (Dance between Rhaegar and Aerys; Robert's Rebellion) was, and how Varys and Illyrio intended to profit from that.
 
We know they later want to create a civil war to install their pretender (Aegon) on the Iron Throne. Yet there is not the slightest hint that a Blackfyre pretender or something similar was on the ready in 282 AC. If Varys and Illyrio were always working in favor of a Blackfyre restoration why didn't Varys slowly poison the Targaryen regime - first destroying Rhaegar, then getting rid of Aerys, and then further destabilizing and fracturing the Realm during the long regency of Viserys III?
 
I'm not convinced by the 'They first wanted to rid the Realm of the Targaryens before they began their Blackfyre restoration plan' explanation. That just sounds stupid. They are too smart to not combine those two plans, not to mention that they actually failed in their objective back during the Rebellion since Viserys and Daenerys survived. If revenge and/or the destruction of House Targaryen was an objective then Viserys and Dany would have been assassinated in Essos shortly after their exile began.
 
It sounds more likely to me that a lot of the bad stuff happening during Aerys' reign was actually due to Aerys' madness and paranoia rather than due to Varys' bad advice. I could be mistaken there, and while I'd agree with anyone suggesting that Yandel clearly downplays Varys' role during Aerys' last years, I don't think Pycelle's reports on the opinions of Aerys' other cronies are wrong. There were other players of the game active at this time, and their influence on Aerys shouldn't be underestimated. After all, Aerys made Chelsted and Rossart Hand, not Varys.

Pycelle was working to pave the way for Tywin...

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . . "

Assuming Illyrio was Daemon Blackfyre's heir, could Varys have been working to install Illyrio, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Mithras,
 
you don't know that Aerys ever spoke about the prophecy in front of Selmy, or do you? If he never did stating that he knows all the secrets of the king is irrelevant. And if he talked in front of Selmy about that, he could also have talked about in front of Varys.
 
The prophecy seems to have been a major issue during Aerys' reign since Aemon and Rhaegar didn't only confer about Aegon but also about Rhaegar being the promised prince. Which would have been before he moved to Dragonstone.
 
Rhaegar's own knowledge about the prophecy would come from his parents. There is no evidence as to whom showed him the original prophecy, but somebody must have told him about the Ghost's prophecy. The idea that she told him herself makes no sense since we have no reason to believe she continued to live at court after Summerhall. And during the first years after Summerhall would have been way too young to understand anything she said to him, anyway.
 
Gyldayn's manuscript in lost in-universe. Varys couldn't have read it since the remains Yandel has were found at the Citadel. Besides, if Varys had read a copy of the full manuscript that would most likely contain the prophecy of the Ghost of High Heart since Gyldayn's account would be much more detailed than Yandel's.
 
There is simply no reason to doubt that Varys could have known about the Targaryen obsession with prophecy and the details of the whole thing. The man is good at uncovering secrets, he has the ear and trust of King Aerys, and he believes in magic.
 
LM,
 
Mel believes Stannis is the reborn Azor Ahai as well as the promised prince, and the promised prince has Targaryen blood. She came to Dragonstone because Stannis Baratheon is a great-grandson of Aegon V.

But Melisandre is on her own. Did she come to that realization within the structure of the Red Temple, or after she'd gone off on her own?