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UnmaskedLurker

A+J=T v.8

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But see, Aemon thought he was too old, so he thinks that if he were young, he could have been "one of the three heads" - I had forgotten Aemon said that. So the three heads don't need to be siblings, and it would be natural for a Targaryen to think only people with their blood could ride a dragon. What I mean is, Tyrion has knowledge, this can be very helpful when dealing with dragons. Many Targaryens had tried to ride, or become, a dragon, with disastrious consequences. Targaryen blood or Valyrian blood might not be so essential as the targs were taught to be.

I always thought Jon's name would be Aemon too, not sure why, maybe because Rhaegar had a strong connection with the maester.

 

The point is that Rhaegar and Aemon believed that 3 Targs needed to be the 3 heads -- not that there would be 1 head with 3 dragons (as you suggested above). I agree that they don't need to be siblings (jon, dany and tyrion are not siblings). Whether Rhaegar thought they needed to be -- I am not 100% sure but his HotU speech suggested that Rhaegar felt a personal responsibility to produce 3 children who would be the 3 heads. Of course, we can be pretty sure now that Rhaegar had a big part of this interpretation wrong. But the idea from Rhaegar and Aemon that 3 people from House Targ are the 3 heads of the dragon seems almost certainly correct to me.

BTW, a bit off topic, but there are other little clues that Jon's name really was to be Aemon (and arguably real "is" Aemon in that his "real" parents actually gave him that name). I will try to remember them -- Jon used to pretend to be Aemon the Dragonknight as a kid while Robb was a different Westeros hero. And I think the best clue is a quote from Jon, himself -- when Jon is contemplating the price of honor and states that he is no Aemon Targaryen (which would be quite ironic if he actually is Aemon Targaryen). Now don't tell any of this to King Viserys Targaryen IV -- he is quite invested in the idea of Viserys (or other male form of Visenya) as Jon's real name.

I totally agree with Tyrion being a Targaryen.  So IMO the 3 would be Dany, Jon and Tyrion also.  I posted something very similar to this over a year ago but it was dismissed out of hand because I said that it was written in another book and this was almost a retelling almost like it was based in one of the parallel worlds that is spoken of constantly in TWOT.

 

http://howthegameofthronesends.blogspot.com/2015/01/symbolically-is-taveren-equal-to.html

  

I doubt that GRRM is copying his ideas from Robert Jordan. I have not read Wheel of Time, but ASOIAF was basically mapped out in the early 90s by "the george" and I doubt he was focusing on the new series (at that time) from RJ while doing it. There are only so many themes that can be written in literature (some argue that the ancient epic poem Gilgamesh, written over 3000 years ago, touched on nearly every possible theme and writers have merely been creating variations on those themes ever since), and I am not that surprised that two well-read fantasy writers independently came up with ideas that have some similarities. But we certainly agree that the 3 heads are Jon, Dany and Tyrion.

Hmm.. I'd say either all should appear in the vision as an animal (dragons, in this case), or none.. especially since we don't know when Moqorro saw his vision. I'd suspect that he (or Benerro, even) saw whatever they saw before the Selaesori Qhoran ever left Volantis (as the Widow at the Waterfront seems to have known Tyrion at sight).

 

I think we do know when he has the vision -- right then and there. He is asked what he sees in the flames by Tyrion and then looks and states the famous quote we keep discussing. We have no reason to assume he saw that particular vision before.

 

Eehm.. I seem to recall I made a couple larger ones, so I'm not sure which one you're talking about? I can recall that we were promising each other to save our longer posts and the replies we were sending because the forum was supposed to be upgraded  (which should place it around july, or june or something, I think?).

 

Since then, I've been able (for myself) to reform my arguments, so if you're ever up to simply restarting the discussion, just say the word :) 

You made a print-out? :) 

 

 

You wrote one very long analysis (it went on for quite a bit) -- and at that time I did not have time to read is carefully, let alone reply. I also, as you note, did not want to write a long reply just to have it lost in the change-over to the new platform. I committed to replying, so yes, of course I printed it out and put it aside (knowing I would have a hard time finding it again on the forum). I just seem to be unable to find it. If you think you have refined your thinking, then yes, go ahead and write a new version, and I will stop trying to find the print-out. Therefore -- Word (I just said -- "the word"). :) 

 

But even so.. The passage from Moqorro could easily have been written without specifically calling Tyrion a "man". Yet GRRM clearly wanted that word there.

 

I think you are making way too much of this fact. I think what is more important than the reference to Tyrion as a man is that Tyrion is NOT referred to as a LION. If the Targs are all appearing as Dragons -- why doesn't Tyrion appear as a Lion? GRRM needs to keep certain things hidden from the reader longer -- so he chooses to have Tyrion be a man (neither a dragon nor a lion) in order to keep the mystery going -- and he refers to him as a man because he wants to emphasize his size. He could have avoided using the word man -- but only if he also gave up on using the word small (which is then contrasted with his big shadow). So GRRM wanted to emphasize that despite Tyrion's size (a small man) -- he is going to be in the middle of the action and will have great power ("with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all").

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These are very interesting clues. Tyrion used to read a lot and all children in Westeros dreamt, at least once, of riding a dragon. He knows a lot about dragons too, I remember he mentions a book that is lost forever, that had more information about dragons? Not sure now. He certainly is fascinated by them, like the old Targaryens were. But remember he can't walk properly without having a lot of pain in his legs, wouldn't it be natural for a boy like him to dream of riding a dragon? Remember when Bran "lost" his legs, his sadness about not being able to ride a horse. I'm sure that if Brandon had heard more dragon stories he would have wanted to ride a dragon too.

And the quote from Moqorro, to me, is more of a hint that he knows who Tyrion is, and the "big shadow" is his past (after all, he's an assassin, right?).

Sorry about my English, it's hard to explain things in English, it might sound like I don't like the theory, I just don't think that Tyrion needs to have Targaryen blood to ride a dragon.

 

Hi, welcome aboard!

I think you should look for instances in the text of the children of Westeros desiring to ride a dragon, rather than assuming that they all do. Because in this context, it's not important what we think the children want, but instead, what does the text explicitly tell us they want? It seems to me that the boys in the story often dream of being knights, not dragon riders. Bran is no exception; it's what he wanted more than anything. We also have cases of boys playing with toy knights. If you think that all children in Westeros dream of riding a dragon, it would help to have some examples from the text to support that.

It seems to me that Tyrion is pretty unique for wanting that, if you consider only the text.

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The Moqorro thing really is a non-issue in this discussion. Moqorro doesn't tell Tyrion anything about his fate, but lets him actually believe he would reach Meereen by ship and not end up as a slave. Why should anyone believe the character of Moqorro as George imagines him would actually want to tell Tyrion the truth about what he saw?

More importantly, people usually forget that it is still a huge mystery why the hell Benerro/Moqorro and the Widow of the Waterfront relented and allowed Jorah and Tyrion to join Moqorro after the Widow had recognized Tyrion. What possible reason could Benerro/Moqorro have to drag Tyrion along with them to Meereen?

And what reason do Varys and Illyrio have to use Tyrion for their plans? Getting information on dragonlore could be acquired much more easily, especially in light of the fact that Tyrion is mostly forced to work from memory. Illyrio and Varys (and Connington and Haldon) can read, too, after all, so the real trouble is getting the right books, not getting the right dwarf.

One can argue that Varys/Illyrio think they could use Tyrion as a pawn in the eventual conquest of Westeros, and install him as new Lord of Casterly Rock. But this would be actually counterproductive to either Aegon's or Dany's cause because of Tyrion's reputation as kingslayer and kinslayer. He is not going to win Dany or Aegon any sympathy in Westeros even among the people hating the Lannisters. Not to mention that Varys still has Tyrek Lannister as a potential pawn, he doesn't need Tyrion at all for this.

In Benerro/Moqorro's case the motivation is even harder to guess since we have no reason to assume that they (or the Widow) have any interest in the Iron Throne of Westeros. They have their own plans for Dany, just as they have their own interpretation what the prophecy means. Plans that most likely involve the end of slavery and Volantis and not Westeros. Pairing Dany with a guy who might steer her towards Westeros and possibly even convince her to ignore Volantis wouldn't make any sense for them.

In that sense, one really has to ask where the importance of Tyrion lies if it is not his Lannister heritage or his knowledge. Many people think it is about his insight into Westerosi politics, but Varys and Illyrio would both know more about that than Tyrion ever could, and any knowledge Tyrion might have about the Lords of Westeros would only come into play when Dany/Aegon invade.

If you think about all that Tyrion could easily have remained a prisoner in Illyrio's manse until such time as the invasion began and Illyrio joined the gang there. There was no reason to send Tyrion to Dany in person.

But if both Varys/Illyrio and Benerro/Moqorro knew that Tyrion could (or would) become a dragonrider, then both may have had a reason to send him to the dragons. And pretty much no one would believe Tyrion could become a dragonrider - most certainly not Tyrion himself, eventually - if he had no Targaryen blood. Tyrion will never try to mount a dragon if he is not convinced that he has Targaryen blood. He has way too much knowledge about dragonlore to ever believe that you don't need dragonlord blood to claim a dragon.

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LV--

Happy New Year, friend.

I have never seen this particular analysis before -- interesting. It leads me to conclude -- based on what you have written -- that perhaps Moqorro has seen Tyrion become a dragonrider -- but also perhaps has seen that it has to come about "by accident" without Tyrion knowing he can ride a dragon. So giving Tyrion subtle hints and pointing him toward the dragons is the way to get him to be a dragonrider. Telling Tyrion he is a Targ bastard will just cause Moqorro to lose all credibility in Tyrion's eyes. Tyrion would never believe that -- not until he actually bonds with a dragon.

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LV--

Happy New Year, friend.

I have never seen this particular analysis before -- interesting. It leads me to conclude -- based on what you have written -- that perhaps Moqorro has seen Tyrion become a dragonrider -- but also perhaps has seen that it has to come about "by accident" without Tyrion knowing he can ride a dragon. So giving Tyrion subtle hints and pointing him toward the dragons is the way to get him to be a dragonrider. Telling Tyrion he is a Targ bastard will just cause Moqorro to lose all credibility in Tyrion's eyes. Tyrion would never believe that -- not until he actually bonds with a dragon.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. The hints indicating that Tyrion might become Viserion's rider could suggest that Tyrion accidentally claims him, say, because there is a situation during the battle in which Tyrion has to choose between (trying to) jump on Viserion's back and certain death. Another scenario could be that he has one of his heroic moments - say, Viserion is about to kill Penny, and he ends up confronting the beast in spite of himself. He has such mad fits of courage on occasion.

The idea that anyone is going to feed Tyrion the idea that he is Aerys' son (say, Selmy) and that then results in Tyrion trying to mount a dragon is less likely because Tyrion would be very much in denial about this claim/not be willing to believe it, and subsequently be very much in doubt about his capability to claim a dragon - but showing that you are not afraid is a major part of becoming a dragonrider, at least if Prince Aemond is any indication.

In my opinion, the story will unfold in a way that the suggestion/idea that Tyrion may be of Targaryen descent will come up after he has claimed a dragon, and thereafter Selmy or eventually Varys/Illyrio or perhaps even Jon Connington will reveal the truth to him.

A question people seem to ignore/not give much thought is the content of the letter Illyrio sent to Connington alongside Tyrion. It could be news about Tyrion's deeds in KL, but there would be no need to hide them in a letter Tyrion is not allowed to read. Connington is skeptical of Tyrion's commitment to their cause but one would assume that Illyrio would not try to convince him to take Tyrion with him as an ally with an argument as stupid as 'He has killed his father, Lord Tywin, and possibly also his own nephew, King Joffrey therefore we have to trust him and he is obviously on our side and a die-hard Targaryen loyalist like you yourself are.' Yet Connington takes Tyrion under his wing anyway, and there has to be some explanation for that, too. 'He knows stuff about dragons' certainly cannot be nothing but a superficial explanation, especially in light of the fact that Connington and Illyrio have no way of knowing what Dany might figure out about the dragons on her own or whether she might consult some books on dragonlore by herself in Volantis.

In that sense, I think it is easily imaginable that Varys, Illyrio, and Connington considered Tyrion a potential additional or spare dragonrider.

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LV, I think you underestimate the value to Aegon's cause of Tyrion's knowledge of dragonlore. As Tyrion, and to a certain extent Daenerys, suggests in his musings the books, containing such knowledge are rare, and the Targaryens likely prevented such knowledge from being widely circulated. 

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Yeah, that's pretty much it. The hints indicating that Tyrion might become Viserion's rider could suggests that Tyrion accidentally claims him, say, because there is a situation during the battle in which Tyrion has to choose between (trying to) jump on Viserion's back and certain death. Another scenario could be that he has one of his heroic moments - say, Viserion is about to kill Penny, and he ends up confronting the beast in spite of himself. He has such mad fits of courage on occasion.

The idea that anyone is going to feed Tyrion the idea that he is Aerys' son (say, Selmy) and that then results in Tyrion trying to mount a dragon is less likely because Tyrion would be very much in denial about this claim/not be willing to believe it, and subsequently be very much in doubt about his capability to claim a dragon - but showing that you are not afraid is a major part of becoming a dragonrider, at least if Prince Aemond is any indication.

In my opinion, the story will unfold in a way that the suggestion/idea that Tyrion may be of Targaryen descent will come up after he has claimed a dragon, and thereafter Selmy or eventually Varys/Illyrio or perhaps even Jon Connington will reveal the truth to him.

A question people seem to ignore/not give much thought is the content of the letter Illyrio sent to Connington alongside Tyrion. It could be news about Tyrion's deeds in KL, but there would be no need to hide them in a letter Tyrion is not allowed to read. Connington is skeptical of Tyrion's commitment to their cause but one would assume that Illyrio would not try to convince him to take Tyrion with him as an ally with an argument as stupid as 'He has killed his father, Lord Tywin, and possibly also his own nephew, King Joffrey therefore we have to trust him and he is obviously on our side and a die-hard Targaryen loyalists like you yourself are.' Yet Connington takes Tyrion under his wing anyway, and there has to be some explanation for that, too. 'He knows stuff about dragons' certainly cannot be nothing but a superficial explanation, especially in light of the fact that Connington and Illyrio have no way of knowing what Dany might figure out about the dragons on her own or whether she might consult some books on dragonlore by herself in Volantis.

In that sense, I think it is easily imaginable that Varys, Illyrio, and Connington considered Tyrion a potential additional or spare dragonrider.

Wow -- where have you been keeping this analysis hidden? I have never seen anyone point out this stuff -- and it has been relevant to many conversations about how Tyrion will be revealed as a Targ. The idea that this information is in that letter is quite intriguing (and seems like a real possibility to me). Tyrion's knowledge of dragons also would not need to be in a secret letter. What else would need to be kept secret from Tyrion?

BTW, I have always thought it more likely that the reveal of Tyrion as son of Aerys would come only after he jumped on Viserion. Just from a dramatic stand-point, it works so much better that way.

P.S. I think this is the first time that I have seen you direct-quote another post -- and it was mine -- I feel honored.

LV, I think you underestimate the value to Aegon's cause of Tyrion's knowledge of dragonlore. As Tyrion, and to a certain extent Daenerys, suggests in his musings the books, containing such knowledge are rare, and the Targaryens likely prevented such knowledge from being widely circulated. 

As I noted above, knowledge of dragonlore would not need to be explained in a hidden letter. What information is being kept from Tyrion intentionally?

 

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UL,

well, I do that now in the new board because it gives the quoted person a notification whereas in the old board you had just to check 'Your Content' to find out whether a thread you posted in had new content (or check the symbols indicating that there was new content).

Previously I felt that unnecessary because quoting blows up postings and is seldom necessary. And then it is much more work to actually filter the important stuff you want address.

LV, I think you underestimate the value to Aegon's cause of Tyrion's knowledge of dragonlore. As Tyrion, and to a certain extent Daenerys, suggests in his musings the books, containing such knowledge are rare, and the Targaryens likely prevented such knowledge from being widely circulated.

What the Targaryens did is actually irrelevant to the availability of books on dragonlore in Essos. Illyrio lives in Essos and has connections throughout the known world. We know that Aegon V looked for books on dragonlore in places as far as Asshai, most likely containing knowledge about dragonbreeding and/or magically hatching dragon eggs. Books/lore or dragonbonding (the core piece of knowledge Varys/Illyrio would need) should be relatively easy to come by considering that other dragonlord lines survive to this day in both Volantis and Lys. Illyrio would just have to buy books.

As far as we know Volantis never had a mad zealot like Baelor as a triarch, so arcane and obscure books and magic and dragons should still exist in Westeros. The scholars in Westeros - not even Septon Barth - would never have known as much about dragons as the actual Valyrians.

Wow -- where have you been keeping this analysis hidden? I have never seen anyone point out this stuff -- and it has been relevant to many conversations about how Tyrion will be revealed as a Targ. The idea that this information is in that letter is quite intriguing (and seems like a real possibility to me). Tyrion's knowledge of dragons also would not need to be in a secret letter. What else would need to be kept secret from Tyrion?

I guess Illyrio could have written about how Varys manipulated Tyrion into murdering Tywin, giving him the full details on the Shae affair and Varys' involvement therein. That could have helped to convince Connington that Tyrion was not just a murdering madman - something he would have to be sure about if he allowed him to interact with Aegon. But I find that less likely because I don't think Illyrio and Varys tell Connington any details about how good and subtle they are at manipulating people.

I don't remember bringing this whole thing up recently, but I think I argued along those lines quite early after ADwD came out. And it actually makes sense that Illyrio/Varys don't tell Tyrion who he is, either. Illyrio doesn't even tell Tyrion who 'the lad' actually is, but gives him enough hints to figure it out himself. Tyrion proves his worth for Varys and Illyrio by figuring stuff out himself. Eventually Connington and the gang would have to tell him who 'Young Griff' is anyway.

Even more subtle is the whole thing about 'the savior' in the first Tyrion chapter. Who is the savior Illyrio is talking about - Dany or Aegon? Or is he talking about three person - the dragon has three heads, after all - which would then be Dany, Aegon, and Tyrion.

But this whole thing actually goes back to ACoK. Why is Varys interested in Tyrion in the first place? Using him against his family is well and good, but why drag him into your own plans? Tyrion could easily have been quietly killed after he took the blame for Joffrey's death and murdered Tywin. Not to mention that Varys sort of opens up to Tyrion and tells him, apparently, the true story about his castration. That's nothing he would tell anyone he does not like or respect to a certain degree.

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Wow -- where have you been keeping this analysis hidden? I never seen anyone point out this stuff -- and it has been relevant to many conversations about how Tyrion will be revealed as a Targ. The idea that this information is in that letter is quite intriguing (and seems like a real possibility to me). Tyrion's knowledge of dragons also would not need to be in a secret letter. What else would need to be kept secret from Tyrion?

BTW, I have always thought it more likely that the reveal of Tyrion as son of Aerys would come only after he jumped on Viserion. Just from a dramatic stand-point, it works so much better that way.

P.S. I think this is the first time that I have seen you direct-quote another post -- and it was mine -- I feel honored.

As I noted above, knowledge of dragonlore would not need to be explained in a hidden letter. What information is being kept from Tyrion intentionally?

 

The contents of Illyrio's letter to Jon Connington weren't necessarily intended to be hidden from Tyrion. How else was Illyrio to transmit information to Jon? 

LV, perhaps the books Aegon V managed to find got burned up at Summerhall. 

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The contents of Illyrio's letter to Jon Connington weren't necessarily intended to be hidden from Tyrion. How else was Illyrio to transmit information to Jon? 

LV, perhaps the books Aegon V managed to find got burned up at Summerhall. 

Connington burning the letter suggests something like that, though. Illyrio could have told Haldon and Duck whatever he wanted Connington to know if it wasn't sensible information. The contents of that letter were kept not only from Tyrion but also from the others as far as we know.

Aegon's books may have been burned, but that doesn't mean that Aegon had collected multiple copies of all the dragonlore books available in Westeros, the Free Cities, and other regions of Essos. Illyrio can bribe a triarch of Volantis. He certainly can buy Valyrian scrolls from them, too.

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"the light from within threw his shadow clear across the yard, and for just a moment Tyrion Lannister stood tall as a king"

Whoevers son he is, Tyrion is no king. His shadow is as tall as a King, but he himself is not. Being the king's shadow, sounds, to me, a lot like being the Hand of the King.. As close to being the king as you can be without actually being the king.

Which goes back to "“So power is a mummer’s trick?” “A shadow on the wall,” Varys murmured, “yet shadows can kill. And ofttimes a very small man can cast a very large shadow.”".

Similarly, the giant comment from Aemon, "A giant come amongst us, at the end of the world", giants have a rather large shadow, wouldn't you agree.

"a small man with a big with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all"... in the midst of all the dragons, that is. With his big shadow referring to the "power" comment made by Varys, and the observation made by Jon.

And is Tyrion not in the midst of all? Jon, Aegon, Dany.. Even Aemon.. And in the future, perhaps Brynden as well. Not to forget the actual dragons. 

Yes that is all the exact assessment I would give the quotes about Tyrion, thank you for writing it out like that.  To me, it all points to him being a dragon.  He is something bigger than he seems, this is really the simplest answer.  Hand of the King is not enough, and it already sort of happened, it's not very interesting to bring him back to KL and make him hand again. Since he already was hand it is no surprise or reveal, which is what these quotes suggest, that he has a secret--something we cannot see, bigger than his dwarf statue.  That's how I see it anyway :)

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UL,

well, I do that now in the new board because it gives the quoted person a notification whereas in the old board you had just to check 'Your Content' to find out whether a thread you posted in had new content (or check the symbols indicating that there was new content).

Previously I felt that unnecessary because quoting blows up postings and is seldom necessary. And then it is much more work to actually filter the important stuff you want address.

 

I guess Illyrio could have written about how Varys manipulated Tyrion into murdering Tywin, giving him the full details on the Shae affair and Varys' involvement therein. That could have helped to convince Connington that Tyrion was not just a murdering madman - something he would have to be sure about if he allowed him to interact with Aegon. But I find that less likely because I don't think Illyrio and Varys tell Connington any details about how good and subtle they are at manipulating people.

I don't remember bringing this whole thing up recently, but I think I argued along those lines quite early after ADwD came out. And it actually makes sense that Illyrio/Varys don't tell Tyrion who he is, either. Illyrio doesn't even tell Tyrion who 'the lad' actually is, but gives him enough hints to figure it out himself. Tyrion proves his worth for Varys and Illyrio by figuring stuff out himself. Eventually Connington and the gang would have to tell him who 'Young Griff' is anyway.

Even more subtle is the whole thing about 'the savior' in the first Tyrion chapter. Who is the savior Illyrio is talking about - Dany or Aegon? Or is he talking about three person - the dragon has three heads, after all - which would then be Dany, Aegon, and Tyrion.

But this whole thing actually goes back to ACoK. Why is Varys interested in Tyrion in the first place? Using him against his family is well and good, but why drag him into your own plans? Tyrion could easily have been quietly killed after he took the blame for Joffrey's death and murdered Tywin. Not to mention that Varys sort of opens up to Tyrion and tells him, apparently, the true story about his castration. That's nothing he would tell anyone he does not like or respect to a certain degree.

I actually suspected that the reason you quoted was for the notification purpose. I was just feigning the honor (lol).

As to the rest of your analysis -- you are really on a roll. I was a lurker on the board at the time of the release of ASwD (found the board a litte before that book came out), I was not on that much so I either missed your posts or was too limited in my own analysis to fully appreciate what you were getting at (I only started really thinking hard about ASOIAF a little before I decided to join the boards about 1-1/2 years ago).

I certainly agree that we cannot be sure what is in the letter and of course there might be other possibilities -- it seems that it has to be a big reveal of some kind or what is the point? And I think your point that Illyrio really needs to have a good reason to keep using Tyrion is important -- as it is hard to come up with any other reason -- but of course, we don't have GRRM's imagination.

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Yes that is all the exact assessment I would give the quotes about Tyrion, thank you for writing it out like that.  To me, it all points to him being a dragon.  He is something bigger than he seems, this is really the simplest answer.  Hand of the King is not enough, and it already sort of happened, it's not very interesting to bring him back to KL and make him hand again. Since he already was hand it is no surprise or reveal, which is what these quotes suggest, that he has a secret--something we cannot see, bigger than his dwarf statue.  That's how I see it anyway :)

Hey SS -- hope your new year is going well. You might have noticed above that RT has agreed to re-do her full analysis objecting to this theory - which I have committed to responding to (the last attempt got side tracked--but she says she has refined her thoughts so maybe for the best). Quibbling with her over individual clues is kind of pointless after all this time debating with her. We all know there are possible alternative explanations for each clue -- that is the way GRRM writes -- he does not want to definitively give anything away. And we have debated these issues with RT long enough to know that arguing clue-by-clue will go nowhere. We believe that the totality of the clues are persuasive -- she does not -- and no amount of evidence will change her mind. Similarly -- no amount of pointing out the alternative explanation for each clue with change our mind. For new readers, I suppose this back-and-forth is useful -- but it is not really advancing any discussion between us and her.

But I think that a more thorough explanation of her analysis might allow us to really understand what her underlying objections are and maybe respond to them in a comprehensive way that might move the discussion along.

RT--If you read this post -- let me know if I have misrepresented anything.

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The Moqorro thing really is a non-issue in this discussion. Moqorro doesn't tell Tyrion anything about his fate, but lets him actually believe he would reach Meereen by ship and not end up as a slave. Why should anyone believe the character of Moqorro as George imagines him would actually want to tell Tyrion the truth about what he saw?

More importantly, people usually forget that it is still a huge mystery why the hell Benerro/Moqorro and the Widow of the Waterfront relented and allowed Jorah and Tyrion to join Moqorro after the Widow had recognized Tyrion. What possible reason could Benerro/Moqorro have to drag Tyrion along with them to Meereen?

And what reason do Varys and Illyrio have to use Tyrion for their plans? Getting information on dragonlore could be acquired much more easily, especially in light of the fact that Tyrion is mostly forced to work from memory. Illyrio and Varys (and Connington and Haldon) can read, too, after all, so the real trouble is getting the right books, not getting the right dwarf.

One can argue that Varys/Illyrio think they could use Tyrion as a pawn in the eventual conquest of Westeros, and install him as new Lord of Casterly Rock. But this would be actually counterproductive to either Aegon's or Dany's cause because of Tyrion's reputation as kingslayer and kinslayer. He is not going to win Dany or Aegon any sympathy in Westeros even among the people hating the Lannisters. Not to mention that Varys still has Tyrek Lannister as a potential pawn, he doesn't need Tyrion at all for this.

In Benerro/Moqorro's case the motivation is even harder to guess since we have no reason to assume that they (or the Widow) have any interest in the Iron Throne of Westeros. They have their own plans for Dany, just as they have their own interpretation what the prophecy means. Plans that most likely involve the end of slavery and Volantis and not Westeros. Pairing Dany with a guy who might steer her towards Westeros and possibly even convince her to ignore Volantis wouldn't make any sense for them.

In that sense, one really has to ask where the importance of Tyrion lies if it is not his Lannister heritage or his knowledge. Many people think it is about his insight into Westerosi politics, but Varys and Illyrio would both know more about that than Tyrion ever could, and any knowledge Tyrion might have about the Lords of Westeros would only come into play when Dany/Aegon invade.

If you think about all that Tyrion could easily have remained a prisoner in Illyrio's manse until such time as the invasion began and Illyrio joined the gang there. There was no reason to send Tyrion to Dany in person.

But if both Varys/Illyrio and Benerro/Moqorro knew that Tyrion could (or would) become a dragonrider, then both may have had a reason to send him to the dragons. And pretty much no one would believe Tyrion could become a dragonrider - most certainly not Tyrion himself, eventually - if he had no Targaryen blood. Tyrion will never try to mount a dragon if he is not convinced that he has Targaryen blood. He has way too much knowledge about dragonlore to ever believe that you don't need dragonlord blood to claim a dragon.

I have been asking the same questions for a while, what is so great about Tyrion?  Illyrio definitely knows something about him with the 'we can change that" quote in DwD.  There IS something special about Tyrion that Tyrion doesnt know himself.  In other words 'little did he know he was a dragon lord inside.'  

That is exactly what I was getting at with the quotes from random important people about how Tyrion is more than he seems, Aemon, Jon Snow, Moquorro, Illyrio and Vagharro's Whore all see it within a few minutes to a few days of knowing him.

 And sure he has vast knowledge of dragons and all things that pertain to them, but he's not a maester, it's not like his business card would say 'Tyrion Lannister Dragon Expert".  What I mean is, the fact that he knows a lot about dragons is hardly common knowledge or something that Illyrio knew before spending days with him inside the litter. That is something they found out about him after they decided to help him.

 

 

Hi, welcome aboard!

I think you should look for instances in the text of the children of Westeros desiring to ride a dragon, rather than assuming that they all do. Because in this context, it's not important what we think the children want, but instead, what does the text explicitly tell us they want? It seems to me that the boys in the story often dream of being knights, not dragon riders. Bran is no exception; it's what he wanted more than anything. We also have cases of boys playing with toy knights. If you think that all children in Westeros dream of riding a dragon, it would help to have some examples from the text to support that.

It seems to me that Tyrion is pretty unique for wanting that, if you consider only the text.

Yes exactly!! 

Yeah, that's pretty much it. The hints indicating that Tyrion might become Viserion's rider could suggest that Tyrion accidentally claims him, say, because there is a situation during the battle in which Tyrion has to choose between (trying to) jump on Viserion's back and certain death. Another scenario could be that he has one of his heroic moments - say, Viserion is about to kill Penny, and he ends up confronting the beast in spite of himself. He has such mad fits of courage on occasion.

The idea that anyone is going to feed Tyrion the idea that he is Aerys' son (say, Selmy) and that then results in Tyrion trying to mount a dragon is less likely because Tyrion would be very much in denial about this claim/not be willing to believe it, and subsequently be very much in doubt about his capability to claim a dragon - but showing that you are not afraid is a major part of becoming a dragonrider, at least if Prince Aemond is any indication.

In my opinion, the story will unfold in a way that the suggestion/idea that Tyrion may be of Targaryen descent will come up after he has claimed a dragon, and thereafter Selmy or eventually Varys/Illyrio or perhaps even Jon Connington will reveal the truth to him.

A question people seem to ignore/not give much thought is the content of the letter Illyrio sent to Connington alongside Tyrion. It could be news about Tyrion's deeds in KL, but there would be no need to hide them in a letter Tyrion is not allowed to read. Connington is skeptical of Tyrion's commitment to their cause but one would assume that Illyrio would not try to convince him to take Tyrion with him as an ally with an argument as stupid as 'He has killed his father, Lord Tywin, and possibly also his own nephew, King Joffrey therefore we have to trust him and he is obviously on our side and a die-hard Targaryen loyalist like you yourself are.' Yet Connington takes Tyrion under his wing anyway, and there has to be some explanation for that, too. 'He knows stuff about dragons' certainly cannot be nothing but a superficial explanation, especially in light of the fact that Connington and Illyrio have no way of knowing what Dany might figure out about the dragons on her own or whether she might consult some books on dragonlore by herself in Volantis.

In that sense, I think it is easily imaginable that Varys, Illyrio, and Connington considered Tyrion a potential additional or spare dragonrider.

Those are probable ways in which he will discover that Aerys is his father.  I think the bravery scenario with Penny the most likely, and the funniest, which would fit perfectly for Tyrion.

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I guess Illyrio could have written about how Varys manipulated Tyrion into murdering Tywin, giving him the full details on the Shae affair and Varys' involvement therein. That could have helped to convince Connington that Tyrion was not just a murdering madman - something he would have to be sure about if he allowed him to interact with Aegon. But I find that less likely because I don't think Illyrio and Varys tell Connington any details about how good and subtle they are at manipulating people.

I don't remember bringing this whole thing up recently, but I think I argued along those lines quite early after ADwD came out. And it actually makes sense that Illyrio/Varys don't tell Tyrion who he is, either. Illyrio doesn't even tell Tyrion who 'the lad' actually is, but gives him enough hints to figure it out himself. Tyrion proves his worth for Varys and Illyrio by figuring stuff out himself. Eventually Connington and the gang would have to tell him who 'Young Griff' is anyway.

Even more subtle is the whole thing about 'the savior' in the first Tyrion chapter. Who is the savior Illyrio is talking about - Dany or Aegon? Or is he talking about three person - the dragon has three heads, after all - which would then be Dany, Aegon, and Tyrion.

But this whole thing actually goes back to ACoK. Why is Varys interested in Tyrion in the first place? Using him against his family is well and good, but why drag him into your own plans? Tyrion could easily have been quietly killed after he took the blame for Joffrey's death and murdered Tywin. Not to mention that Varys sort of opens up to Tyrion and tells him, apparently, the true story about his castration. That's nothing he would tell anyone he does not like or respect to a certain degree.

I was also just thinking that, to be fair, there is no way for us to be sure that Illyrio must needs coax JonCon into anything.  Illyrio and Varys planned and paid for everything, at this point JC is just taking orders.  As he makes it clear he does not like TYrion and disagrees with bringing him at all, but does it anyway.  He was most likely just doing what he was told by the Cheesmonger boss.

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Hey SS -- hope your new year is going well. You might have noticed above that RT has agreed to re-do her full analysis objecting to this theory - which I have committed to responding to (the last attempt got side tracked--but she says she has refined her thoughts so maybe for the best). Quibbling with her over individual clues is kind of pointless after all this time debating with her. We all know there are possible alternative explanations for each clue -- that is the way GRRM writes -- he does not want to definitively give anything away. And we have debated these issues with RT long enough to know that arguing clue-by-clue will go nowhere. We believe that the totality of the clues are persuasive -- she does not -- and no amount of evidence will change her mind. Similarly -- no amount of pointing out the alternative explanation for each clue with change our mind. For new readers, I suppose this back-and-forth is useful -- but it is not really advancing any discussion between us and her.

But I think that a more thorough explanation of her analysis might allow us to really understand what her underlying objections are and maybe respond to them in a comprehensive way that might move the discussion along.

RT--If you read this post -- let me know if I have misrepresented anything.

Hey Happy New Year!!

I can't wait to read it.  RT, don't you think that your resolve has lessened slightly? I mean we must have convinced you a little bit by now, more so than before UL started these AJT threads no doubt.  I mean Tyrion did see Drogon on the river when no one else did, that's got to mean something :D

but also, just the sheer number of clues that all pointed to one thing.  Even if you can find an alternate explanation for all them, the fact that there are sooooo many clues now means that by the laws of statistics we must be right about some of them. Know what I mean?

 

Tyrion Identifies himself as Hugor Hill, as a Westerosi bastard from his part of the country which is exactly what he is.  Often GRRM hides things and future events in VERY plain sight, like this line when Tyrion is aboard the Shy Maid before Volantis; 

"Slave-catchers would be a welcome change from turtles."  Not being an escaped slave, Tyrion need not fear being caught.

 

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Connington burning them suggests something like that, though. Illyrio could have told Haldon and Duck whatever he wanted Connington to know if it wasn't sensible information. The contents of that letter were kept not only from Tyrion but also from the others as far as we know.

Aegon's books may have been burned, but that doesn't mean that Aegon had collected multiple copies of all the dragonlore books available in Westeros, the Free Cities, and other regions of Essos. Illyrio can bribe a triarch of Volantis. He certainly can buy Valyrian scrolls from them, too.

 Jon has  read the information about Tyrion - and then he had his own ideas. For example never to reveal Tyrion's paternity so Tyrion could not be a competition to Aegon. Theat's why Connington burned the letter, he was never going to play the game of Varys and Illyrio, he intended to betray them, necessary for Aegon's sake so he believed.

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I actually suspected that the reason you quoted was for the notification purpose. I was just feigning the honor (lol).

As to the rest of your analysis -- you are really on a roll. I was a lurker on the board at the time of the release of ASwD (found the board a litte before that book came out), I was not on that much so I either missed your posts or was too limited in my own analysis to fully appreciate what you were getting at (I only started really thinking hard about ASOIAF a little before I decided to join the boards about 1-1/2 years ago).

I certainly agree that we cannot be sure what is in the letter and of course there might be other possibilities -- it seems that it has to be a big reveal of some kind or what is the point? And I think your point that Illyrio really needs to have a good reason to keep using Tyrion is important -- as it is hard to come up with any other reason -- but of course, we don't have GRRM's imagination.

Well, I remember not liking the Tyrion-Targaryen theory all that much prior to ADwD since it was at this part largely without really good evidence - it was mostly subtle hints - and the first three books and AFfC, too, in a sense (with Genna's talk) really hammered home the fact that Tyrion is seen as a Lannister and wants to be seen as a Lannister.

But the whole Joanna-Aerys thing in ADwD clearly changed that all for me. The only potential child of Aerys and Joanna is Tyrion if you are realistic, and the only reason why George would add the whole Aerys-Joanna thing is if it has real consequences (that is, a living child, that plays a role in the story). There would be no reason to add yet another reason why the relationship between Tywin and Aerys soured. We already had had enough of that (Jaime, the rejection of Cersei as Rhaegar's bride, the treatment of Ilyn Payne, the jokes about Tywin himself, etc.).

I doubt that Tyrion's ancestry has anything to do with that recent twist he talked about, the one that seemed to grow naturally out of the story. If Aerys is Tyrion's father than George planted deliberate clues to that as early as AGoT, but most certainly very concrete clues in ADwD and TWoIaF. If this theory is true, then it was planned all along, and did not grow out of the whole thing naturally.

In regards to the Varys/Illyrio thing an important part of their whole plan is that they don't seem to be actually opposed to the Targaryens. At least not after Aerys and his dynasty fell. Effectively the Targaryens in exile now share the fate of their Blackfyre cousins, and if Varys/Illyrio are connected to them they obviously have no trouble with the fact that they appear as Targaryen supporters to the public (to the degree that Illyrio even sends Selmy to Dany, which was no small feature).

Tyrion could actually be set up even as a spare claimant to the throne. After all, if Aegon and Dany were to die, Tyrion could reasonably present himself as the next in line as Aerys' natural son. Especially if he becomes a dragonrider. And somehow ACoK gives off the vibe as if Varys is very happy with the way Tyrion runs the government.

I was also just thinking that, to be fair, there is no way for us to be sure that Illyrio must needs coax JonCon into anything.  Illyrio and Varys planned and paid for everything, at this point JC is just taking orders.  As he makes it clear he does not like TYrion and disagrees with bringing him at all, but does it anyway.  He was most likely just doing what he was told by the Cheesmonger boss.

That is not really true. Connington has leeway to decide stuff since Illyrio and Varys aren't there, Illyrio says as much to Tyrion before they depart. And Connington makes it very clear that he is in charge of the whole operation. He may be mistaken there, of course, since now Aegon himself is taking control, and one wonders if/when Harry Strickland is dropping his mask of being indecisive and reluctant and finally taking charge of things (or other officers of the Golden Company).

 Jon has  read the information about Tyrion - and then he had his own ideas. For example never to reveal Tyrion's paternity so Tyrion could not be a competition to Aegon. Theat's why Connington burned the letter, he was never going to play the game of Varys and Illyrio, he intended to betray them, necessary for Aegon's sake so he believed.

That makes not much sense since Connington himself says, most likely in accordance with the letter, that Tyrion can accompany them as far as Volantis where they will then decide his eventual fate. They thought they would wait for Daenerys at Volantis, suggesting that Aegon's true identity would have been revealed to Tyrion around the same time as it would have been to Dany. Dany bringing three dragons with her would have meant that Dany, Aegon, and Tyrion might have been Varys/Illyrio's candidates to become dragonriders.

If Illyrio or Varys had plans to claim a dragon for themselves one or both of them would have accompanied Tyrion and Aegon.

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