2015 ASOIAF Theory Poll RESULTS, Part 1 (Identity & Conspiracy Theories)

[UnmaskedLurker]

2 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Whether their marriage is accepted as legit will all depend upon what suits those with the power to decide so when it comes to the end. Basically if the forces with the most influence over things do not want Jon to be a legitimate Targaryen, they will refute the marriage, and if those with the most power at the time want him to be legit, they will declare it so. 

A lot of people get so wrapped up in what they think Westeros at the time of the marriage would have accepted, and they forget that that is irrelevant to what Westeros or what is left of it may wish to accept in the end. Also what Westeros may or may not have accepted at the time does not reflect what Rhaegar may have thought he could pull off. We know from Barristan that he was very single minded, it seems to me what ultimately matters is was he the sort of man who might have done such a thing. I'd place money on yes being the answer to that. 

The twist in the tail could be that Jon is a legitimate Targaryen, and so Not a Bastard, but enough people don't want to acknowledge him as such because of the threat that could have to a slim peace brokered after Dany and fAegon rip the realm to shreds. And whilst he doesn't want the IT, the fear that some factors could use him to wage further war prevent him from being able to claim his true name. 

All sorts of possibilities could arise, but please do not assume everyone who thinks they were married just wants it for some fairy tail ending for Jon, because they Luvs him, and he's their special snowflake. 

 

I agree with most of what you said. I agree that -- assuming Rhaegar and Lyanna were married in some fashion (which I think is likely) -- and assuming some evidence of this marriage exists (which I think is possible) -- people's acceptance of the marriage as a "real" marriage largely will be based on self-interest at the time. Clearly some polygamous marriages in Westeros have been accepted -- but at other times it has been suggested that polygamy is not an option. So whether an exception would be applied here is not entirely clear.

I also agree that there is reasonable evidence that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, and Rhaegar thought he could get his polygamous marriage to be accepted. Rhaegar might have been correct or might have been mistaken -- but he seemed to believe his marriage to Lyanna was legit -- and the 3 KG at ToJ seemed to agree.

Where I have somewhat of a disagreement is that I don't think Jon's status will be relevant in the fall out of the battle between Dany and fAegon. I think that battle -- while interesting (DoD 2.0) -- ultimately will be a side show. Rather -- as GRRM has repeatedly said in interviews -- while people Westeros are focused on the game of thrones, the real threat is from the North (i.e., the Others). So Jon's status likely will be relevant -- if it ever become relevant -- only after Westeros has been even more devastated by the War for the Dawn 2.0 involving the invasion from the North by the Others. Jon likely will be instrumental in winning that battle -- but as Tyrion has learned, being an important factor in winning a battle does not ensure recognition for such a role. 

So while I think it highly likely Rhaegar and Lyanna were married, and Jon is the product of that union -- how the rest of these issues play out is quite unclear. I don't think Jon's parentage will become widely known in the immediate aftermath of Dany's invasion and battle against fAegon -- but rather will become an issue throughout Westeros (if ever) only in the aftermath of the battle against the Others.

GRRM has set up different precedents pointing in different directions to how Jon's situation might play out in the end, and I would not be so bold as to assert that I know which alternative GRRM plans to take.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I'm sorry, I thought I'd been clear that I was simply giving one possible way in which things could work out. I thought the words "All sorts of possibilities could arise" covered that this is not what I think will happen, but rather just an off hand thought as to a way in which R+L=J doesn't have to be about wanting Jon on the IT. 

As so many who are against R+L=J or indeed believe it but won't countenance him being legitimate assume that those who disagree are basically only doing so as they want Jon to be a special hero who gets the throne and the beautiful princess and lives happily ever after. Which is bollocks. 

i literally just thought that scenario up in that exact moment, and threw it out there as a possible example. 

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

I am genuinely puzzled how "Rhaegar wed Lyanna in the tradition of the Free Folk" is not universally accepted.

By all means, debate whether or not that marriage would be considered legitimate in the 7K. Question whether that marriage will have significant repercussions for Jon's future. Argue about whether R+L also said vows in front of a Heart Tree or Septon.

But how can anyone question whether Jon is legitimate when Rhaegar obviously married Lyanna by stealing her?

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I think Weirwood with witnesses myself. I think at least one of those witnesses survived.  We know he took a half dozen companions with him to the RL. And one presumes Lyanna was not travelling alone either. 

[LmL]

56 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

I am genuinely puzzled how "Rhaegar wed Lyanna in the tradition of the Free Folk" is not universally accepted.

By all means, debate whether or not that marriage would be considered legitimate in the 7K. Question whether that marriage will have significant repercussions for Jon's future. Argue about whether R+L also said vows in front of a Heart Tree or Septon.

But how can anyone question whether Jon is legitimate when Rhaegar obviously married Lyanna by stealing her?

Because that's a wildlings custom which is never practiced by those who live south of it? And because stealing is not recognized as legitimate in the eyes of anyone in the seven kingdoms? I mean it's a good echo of Bael and all, but stealing Lyanna does not in any way have anything to do with Jon's legitimacy. 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1 minute ago, LmL said:

Because that's a wildlings custom which is never practiced by those who live south of it? And because stealing is not recognized as legitimate in the eyes of anyone in the seven kingdoms? I mean it's a good echo of Bael and all, but stealing Lyanna does not in any way have anything to do with Jon's legitimacy. 

Well to be fair, that does rather depend upon what the ruling people of Westeros believe in when the relevant portion of the story occurs. For all we know the 7 may be annihilated, and the Wildlings having populated South of the wall may be more numerous, able to find common ground with fellow Old Gods worshippers the Northerners and have the more influential say in what religions and rules are observed in Westeros. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 minute ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Well to be fair, that does rather depend upon what the ruling people of Westeros believe in when the relevant portion of the story occurs. For all we know the 7 may be annihilated, and the Wildlings having populated South of the wall may be more numerous, able to find common ground with fellow Old Gods worshippers the Northerners and have the more influential say in what religions and rules are observed in Westeros. 

I think that scenario is stretching things quite a bit. Rhaegar certainly would not have believed that he had a valid marriage to Lyanna by means of "stealing" her. If Rhaegar and Lyanna intended to have their relationship recognized as a marriage -- they would have gotten married in one or both of their traditions (i.e., weirwood ceremony and Septon officiating).

The idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna never intended to be considered to be married but a wilding take over of Westeros will retroactively consider them to be married because Rhaegar "stole" Lyanna is a bit far fetched -- and unnecessary. The clues that Rhaegar and Lyanna engaged in some formal ceremony to mark their marriage are persuasive enough to me that I think such a wedding occurred. But again, I have no idea how wide knowledge of the wedding will become or how widely the validity of the marriage will be accepted.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I think you missed my point. 

Basically that it really does ALL come down to what those with power and influence want to say in regards to if Jon is legitimate or not. And yes sometimes people have gone to very bizarre and far fetched lengths in real life to secure a persons rule. So IF and as I already said I'm not really a fan of the idea, so only if Jon was to rule in the end, it will all come down to how much people want to back him to do so, and what influential parties are around who need to be appeased for that to happen. 

My point is think outside the box. Stop assuming that things will stay the same. Or that what was once deemed important will be strictly adhered to at the end.

The 7 may well be done, a minor sect clinging on in Westeros by the series end. There is considerable build up to a huge war with the faith militant and the current ruling factions. that would considerably weaken them as a religion. 

Add in the R'hllor factor, what if Dany takes the Red God? and once she arrives those who support her convert? again this shakes shit up. 

And yes I think you do have to take the fact the wildlings have moved from one side of the wall to the other into account. Firstly they are very numerous, secondly as the Winter progresses there is a good chance their numbers will be dispersed into the kingdom, moving southwards as the snow deepens, add in the Mountain clans already there, who could perhaps come out to play once the normal social constructs have all been dismantled by wars and wights and dragons. Factor in that these two parties both worship the Old gods as do the Northerners who whilst battered by TWoT5K are by no means destroyed, and they are better able to cope infrastructure wise with the harsh winter than the southern houses so it is easy to see that actually there is opportunity for huge cultural shifts to occur. 

I'm not saying this will happen, again I am pointing out that these things could happen.

And yes I think they married and yes I think there is proof of that, in the form of witnesses, or maybe a contract, or what not. 

[J. Stargaryen]

On 1/25/2016 at 0:06 AM, Phillip Frye said:

You, J. Star, and LmL should be aware at this point that the main Heresy theories do not concern R+L=J at all.  The subject is only lightly touched upon in the threads, and I think that only about five threads (somewhat recently) even addressed the issue of Jon Snow's parentage as the chief topic.  That's a pretty small percentage of the total posts.  Yes, yes, I am aware that some other Heretics began some threads outside of Heresy regarding Jon Snow's parentage.

Which "main Heresy theories" are you talking about? Because it seems to be a pretty popular idea among Heretics, and only among Heretics, that Lyanna wasn't at the ToJ, for example. And let's be honest, there's a certain subset of Heretics that have focused lots of energy on RLJ and RLJers for the past year or so. Further, I'm pretty sure a few Heretics joined up with you guys specifically because they didn't agree with RLJ.

Maybe it's not your experience, and it doesn't apply to all of you, but it seems hard to deny that the terms Heresy and Heretic have become at least partially associated with R+L=/=J.

On 1/25/2016 at 0:06 AM, Phillip Frye said:

To the extent that Heresy has an official position on the parentage of Jon Snow, it would be that his descent from Lyanna Stark--as well as being raised by Deaddard--is greatly more important to his character and fate than the fact that some other dude below The Neck donated sperm towards his conception, even if that dude was the Crown Prince.  Jon Snow is a true son of Winterfell, as noted by another prominent Targaryen.

I know that's the official party line, often spouted by BC, but I'm gonna let you in on a secret: it's not that different from what plenty of RLJers think. I guess it's just that RLJers tend to be a lot more open minded about the possible implications of Rhaegar being Jon's father. Whether they be magical, political, or some combination of both.

On 1/25/2016 at 0:06 AM, Phillip Frye said:

What the "eight" of us find extremely amusing is the effort put into inventing details to make Jon Targaryen, First of His Name, seem more plausible, such as harps kept in basements, middle-aged vagabonds wandering out of The Neck with moldy wills held in their teeth, debates over which dragon Jon Snow will prefer to ride, etc.

Heretics finding speculation from other groups of fans "extremely amusing" is extremely amusing to me.