Ygrain Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: 1. Yes, I've had to admit that looking closely at the timeline is a recipe for disaster... 2. It is incredibly unclear to me what these men at the ToJ knew, and when they knew it... I guess it could be as simple as Rheagar told them to stay so they just did... But like I said, this doesn't sit right with me 3. There is clearly enough time for Lyanna to get pregnant twice, however you cut the timeline... We don't know exactly when she disappeared, but very early in 282... And the ToJ showdown was at the end of 283... Elia (with Rheagar) had two kids in almost the same timeline... And that is waiting for Lyanna to get pregnant until after she disappears... If she ran away because she was already pregnant then there is even more time. As for when the Tourney of Harrenhall was, I still don't know when to place it in 281... As you say some of the details seem to conflict... the false spring was only two turns at the end of the year... But Elia would have been really pregnant then... So I don't know how anyone can be so sure about this unless I missed something. And sorry if I was unclear, the extra baby is Dany... Everything makes so much more sense and works better if she is a Stark and Targ... Also, Jon's little sister... but that's a whole other discussion Well, if Dany is the other baby, then her and Jon are NOT siblings. With the normal length of human pregnancy as well as a recovery period after the delivery, siblings don't get to be born 8-9 months apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Ygrain said: Well, if Dany is the other baby, then her and Jon are NOT siblings. With the normal length of human pregnancy as well as a recovery period after the delivery, siblings don't get to be born 8-9 months apart. Again the quote is closer to 8-9 months than a year... Despite how this forum likes to treat it... Also, this isn't real life... But even if it was, as someone who works in an inner city hospital, I can tell you that siblings most certainly do get born 9-10 months apart, and not even that infrequently... It probably happened even more frequently back in the day. But, more importantly look at Elia getring married and having two kids in this same amount of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Again the quote is closer to 8-9 months than a year... Despite how this forum likes to treat it... Pray, how does the forum treat it? 20 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Also, this isn't real life... But even if it was, as someone who works in an inner city hospital, I can tell you that siblings most certainly do get born 9-10 months apart, and not even that infrequently... It probably happened even more frequently back in the day. Please, do share with us the statistics. 9 months pregnancy, 4-6 weeks puerperium, + X weeks to months when ovulation restarts after lactation is stopped or decreased. 20 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: But, more importantly look at Elia getring married and having two kids in this same amount of time... You mean, Elia who was bedridden for half a year after the birth of Rhaenys? That's definitely not what I'd call the same timeframe, or do you claim that Rhaegar impregnated her while she was still recovering? Quote, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ygrain said: Pray, how does the forum treat it? Please, do share with us the statistics. 9 months pregnancy, 4-6 weeks puerperium, + X weeks to months when ovulation restarts after lactation is stopped or decreased. You mean, Elia who was bedridden for half a year after the birth of Rhaenys? That's definitely not what I'd call the same timeframe, or do you claim that Rhaegar impregnated her while she was still recovering? Quote, please. Many in the forum treat the one George quote like an iron clad 9 months from Jon to Dany... Which is awfully hard to explain if you think Jon was born at the ToJ and Dany was conceived the night Aery's burned Chelstead. Really he said it was closer to 8-9 months than a year or thereabouts... Context and all that rot... I don't have statistics but a very nice woman just went home today with two kids both born in 2015... And the real time for pregnancies, as well as recovery time, very wildly... Especially if one child was born prematurely, as is often the case when something goes wrong, resulting in... Well... A nice euphemism would be "bed of blood"... As a matter of fact, you'd have to put a few quotes together, and I'm on a phone, but one can be fairly certain that Rheagar married Elia in 280... And Aegon (second kid) was born by the end of 281... So if there really was six months of bed rest along with 2 9-month pregnancies... That's already the entire 24 months we were working with... As a parallel Lyanna went missing at the start of 282 and the ToJ is at the end of 283... And no 6-month frailty bed rest... So yes, same timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Many in the forum treat the one George quote like an iron clad 9 months from Jon to Dany... Which is awfully hard to explain if you think Jon was born at the ToJ and Dany was conceived the night Aery's burned Chelstead. Not 9 months, but 8-9, which means even less than the normal gestation period. And I really don't see what's so hard to explain, knowing that Dany's conception, the Trident and the Sack happened during a short time frame. It makes Jon born some time after the Sack. 36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Really he said it was closer to 8-9 months than a year or thereabouts... Context and all that rot... And how he, Mr me-and-numbers-nope-nope-nope knew so exactly how much time there was between the birth? He must have been able to relate them to some important event. In Dany's case, that event is known: the Sack + 9 months. How peculiar that the post-Sack timing relates to Jon. 36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: I don't have statistics but a very nice woman just went home today with two kids both born in 2015... And the real time for pregnancies, as well as recovery time, very wildly... Being born in the same year doesn't make them 8-9 months apart, though. What is the statistics for almost zero spacing between two pregnancies which result in two life and viable birth in medieval conditions? Besides, Rhaegar had sex with fifteen-year-old Lyanna, got her pregnant, and then got her pregnant immediately after childbirth? Seriously? 36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Especially if one child was born prematurely, as is often the case when something goes wrong, resulting in... Well... A nice euphemism would be "bed of blood"... It would be nice but it is not the way GRRM uses it. He uses it as an euphemism for every childbirth, not just a problematic one. 36 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: As a matter of fact, you'd have to put a few quotes together, and I'm on a phone, but one can be fairly certain that Rheagar married Elia in 280... And Aegon (second kid) was born by the end of 281... So if there really was six months of bed rest along with 2 9-month pregnancies... That's already the entire 24 months we were working with... As a parallel Lyanna went missing at the start of 282 and the ToJ is at the end of 283... And no 6-month frailty bed rest... So yes, same timeframe... The wiki states that Rhaegar and Elia married in 280 and Rhaenys was born in the same year. Aegon was born at the turn of 281-282. That makes for at least 12 months between the births (not sure where the "half-year bedridden" got lost in GRRM's shuffling with the dates. Also, to my best knowledge, Lyanna didn't go missing at the start of 282, that's when Rhaegar left Dragonstone to eventually return to the Riverlands. Also, where does the information of ToJ being at the end of 283 come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 40 minutes ago, Ygrain said: Not 9 months, but 8-9, which means even less than the normal gestation period. And I really don't see what's so hard to explain, knowing that Dany's conception, the Trident and the Sack happened during a short time frame. It makes Jon born some time after the Sack. And how he, Mr me-and-numbers-nope-nope-nope knew so exactly how much time there was between the birth? He must have been able to relate them to some important event. In Dany's case, that event is known: the Sack + 9 months. How peculiar that the post-Sack timing relates to Jon. Being born in the same year doesn't make them 8-9 months apart, though. What is the statistics for almost zero spacing between two pregnancies which result in two life and viable birth in medieval conditions? Besides, Rhaegar had sex with fifteen-year-old Lyanna, got her pregnant, and then got her pregnant immediately after childbirth? Seriously? It would be nice but it is not the way GRRM uses it. He uses it as an euphemism for every childbirth, not just a problematic one. The wiki states that Rhaegar and Elia married in 280 and Rhaenys was born in the same year. Aegon was born at the turn of 281-282. That makes for at least 12 months between the births (not sure where the "half-year bedridden" got lost in GRRM's shuffling with the dates. Also, to my best knowledge, Lyanna didn't go missing at the start of 282, that's when Rhaegar left Dragonstone to eventually return to the Riverlands. Also, where does the information of ToJ being at the end of 283 come from? First let me say I enjoy the argument... And I know we've gotten pretty far off the OP, but... What part of "closer to 8-9 months or thereabouts" in relation to a year is so hard? 10 months maybe 10 and a half easily fit this... The point is it all isn't clear, but the details we have received conflict with one another. On this forum , and I'd assume generally, everyone jumps on that meaning Jon was born during (approx) the sack of kings landing since that was nine months before Rhaella dies giving birth in a storm. That was my first thought... But I truly think there is a better explanation... Lyanna having two kids. The Wiki can say whatever it wants, do you think the Worldbook is valid? The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city. As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides. So, it doesn't give us a good timeframe on Lyanna disappearing, but it seems to say Elia's son was born before the new year, right? So she was married and had two kids all inside of two years... And if the false spring was only 2 turns (I assume moon turns) long... Elia was really pregnant at the Tourney of Harrenhall. but whatever, the point is it is a mess and Lyanna having two kids isn't any less likely timeline wise than trying to get the "classic" timeline to fit. On the other hand I've never heard a good explanation for a number of things that point toward Dany being a Stark... Ned resigns over sending assassins after Dany... And that's when he thinks of Lyanna. where did the ship come from that Darry escaped Dragonstone on after the "Stormborn" birth? The whole Targaryen fleet was sunk in the storm remember... Why is there a giant wolf along with the burning man in MMD's tent? Oddly Dany's a natural at riding her silver after a lifetime of boats and cities... Do you think she saw the Red Wedding in the House of the Undying? Why would she see that or care? (Clearly I don't think it was the red wedding) Can you explain the "cup of ice" part? Lemon trees and Braavos. Dany has "wake the dragon" dreams where she is running barefoot through a long stone corridor lined by dead kings... Sound familiar? Stark crypt dreams anyone? Not to mention she see's herself as Rhaegar... There are many more but I'll just end with this quote... From Ned's POV in Game: Yet last night he had dreamt of Rhaegar's children. Lord Tywin had laid the bodies beneath the Iron Throne, wrapped in the crimson cloaks of his house guard. That was clever of him; the blood did not show so badly against the red cloth. The little princess had been barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown, and the boy … the boy … Ned could not let that happen again. The realm could not withstand a second mad king, another dance of blood and vengeance. He must find some way to save the children. Oh hell while I'm at it a few more from Dany's early chapters... All Daenerys wanted back was the big house with the red door, the lemon tree outside her window, the childhood she had never known. -Dany 1 Even the big house with the red door had not been home for him. (Viserys) -Dany 1 Home? The word made her feel sad. Ser Jorah had his Bear Island, but what was home to her? A few tales, names recited as solemnly as the words of a prayer, the fading memory of a red door… -Dany 6 She did take a dozen flasks of scented oils, the perfume of her childhood; she had only to close her eyes and sniff them and she could see the big house with the red door once more. -Dany 6 (Braavos smells like fish not roses) She could smell home, she could see it, there, just beyond the door, green fields and great stone houses and arms to keep her warm, there. She threw open the door. Dany Game 9 Somewhere beyond the sunset, across the narrow sea, lay a land of green hills and flowered plains and great rushing rivers, where towers of dark stones rose amidst magnificent blue-grey mountains, and armored knights rode to battle beneath the banners of their lords. Danny 1 Banners of lords=Arms... and if Dany is really Rhaella's Stormborn, then she has never been to Westeros... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Too long and too late over here, I'm afraid, but I'll get back to you tomorrow. Just quickly one thing: did you mean this vision? Ghosts lined the hallway, dressed in the faded raiment of kings. In their hands were swords of pale fire. They had hair of silver and hair of gold and hair of platinum white, and their eyes were opal and amethyst, tourmaline and jade. Doesn't sound much like the Starks, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ygrain said: Too long and too late over here, I'm afraid, but I'll get back to you tomorrow. Just quickly one thing: did you mean this vision? Ghosts lined the hallway, dressed in the faded raiment of kings. In their hands were swords of pale fire. They had hair of silver and hair of gold and hair of platinum white, and their eyes were opal and amethyst, tourmaline and jade. Doesn't sound much like the Starks, does it? First, fair... Sweet dreams... But how many other Targ dreams are of anything other than fire and dragons? And if she has different ancestors, maybe her dreams of them are different... Because I agree it doesn't sound like Starks... But it sure sounds like a crypt Song of Ice and Fire, after all... Speaking of which, I think the HotU vision with Rheagar, and the only time the series title is used... Is Jon and Lyanna... Not Aegon and Elia... But that's whatever... The selling point for me is that he looks at Dany... If that's Aegon and the other head is Rhaenys, so he goes out and knocks up Lyanna with Jon as the last one... besides being totally wrong (unless we have a piss water princess too) it has nothing to do with Dany... And the return of Dragons... anyway we can continue if and when you like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Dany being Lyanna's daughter would make Ned a terrible uncle. Seriously? He takes one child home with him to be raised as his son and kept safe, but sends the other to Essos to wander, impoverished and frightened? He couldn't think of anything better to do? Like have Howland raise Dany at Greywater Watch (it's not like they're holding tourneys there every other week)? And his response to Robert ordering his niece's assasination is to... resign? And nothing else? Yeah, seems like a shit uncle to me. Ned's the man who demanded justice for Elia and her children and took home his sister's child and claimed it as his own to protect him. I feel like Ned would do a bit more for Dany if she really was his niece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: First let me say I enjoy the argument... And I know we've gotten pretty far off the OP, but... What part of "closer to 8-9 months or thereabouts" in relation to a year is so hard? 10 months maybe 10 and a half easily fit this... The point is it all isn't clear, but the details we have received conflict with one another. Yes, the original statement does allow for some leeway but it is interesting how closely GRRM pinned it - not "somewhat less than a year", "a couple of months less than a full year", "more than half a year"... He has pinned it down in months, and that in a number corresponding closely to a length of pregnancy counted from a certain event. Plus, if you estimate something as 9-8, you can be wrong and it can be 10, but if you know it's 10, you wouldn't say 9-8. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: On this forum , and I'd assume generally, everyone jumps on that meaning Jon was born during (approx) the sack of kings landing since that was nine months before Rhaella dies giving birth in a storm. That was my first thought... But I truly think there is a better explanation... Lyanna having two kids. The Wiki can say whatever it wants, do you think the Worldbook is valid? The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city. As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides. So, it doesn't give us a good timeframe on Lyanna disappearing, but it seems to say Elia's son was born before the new year, right? So she was married and had two kids all inside of two years... And if the false spring was only 2 turns (I assume moon turns) long... Elia was really pregnant at the Tourney of Harrenhall. Wiki is a secondary source, compiled from the books, SSMs and the like. The Worldbook is semi-canon, i.e. its information may not be correct. Plus, I can't get rid of the feeling that as GRRM sat down and tried to make a more precise timeline,he found out he had to squeeze the events. Originally, he stated that there was about a year between HH and Lyanna's abduction and that Lyanna was missing for a year (and it fitted: Jaime was 15 at HH and 17 at the Sack), but now it seems that the period became shorter, or the original SSM about Aegon beeing about a year old at the Sack is no longer valid. Elia's 6 months' bedrest seems to have evaporated... the timeline has become a mess. If Lyanna was missing for a year (or slightly over a year), she would have had to be far into her first pregnancy to manage another, and there has been no indication that she was preggers before her disappearance 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: it is a mess 100% agree. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: On the other hand I've never heard a good explanation for a number of things that point toward Dany being a Stark... Ned resigns over sending assassins after Dany... And that's when he thinks of Lyanna. If my BF ordered a murder of a fourteen years old girl and I was holding an office for him, I would resign, too, as I wouldn't want to be involved with such a person any more. I'll have to take a look at the exact quote but given that Ned harbours Lyanna's baby who would be subject to the same blind hatred from Robert, I don't find anything suspicious about this connection. On the other hand, as pointed out below, I would expect Ned to do way more. WAY more. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: where did the ship come from that Darry escaped Dragonstone on after the "Stormborn" birth? The whole Targaryen fleet was sunk in the storm remember... A fishing boat? A merchant's/smuggler's ship, i.e. not part of the fleet? If 1-2 ships out of, say, 50 remained usable, I guess it would be still possible to say that the "whole" fleet was sunk, as well. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Why is there a giant wolf along with the burning man in MMD's tent? Something looming over Dany's future? Some harmful forces at play over Dany's fate, one represented by the wolf and the other by the burning man? There is nothing pointing towards them as manifestations of her past or of what she is. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Oddly Dany's a natural at riding her silver after a lifetime of boats and cities... IIRC, it is said that the filly was her teacher and that she was an exceptionally good horse. Plus, on her silver, the first time in her life Dany ceased to be afraid, and that is also important at horseriding. So to sum, prior she had little experience, with who knows what kinds of horses, and was afraid. Now she has a superb horse and one hell of a self-confidence. It never struck me as weird that she learned to ride so well so quickly. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Do you think she saw the Red Wedding in the House of the Undying? Why would she see that or care? (Clearly I don't think it was the red wedding) Yes, I think it was the Red Wedding, and that it might have something to do with her being, or aspiring to be, a queen - "the mute appeal" with which the king with the wolf head is looking at her might be an appeal for justice. There is a lot that Dany doesn't know about the Starks, she still thinks about them as "Usurper's dogs", and if there is going to be a Dance of Dragons 2.0. between her and Aegon (true or false), her decision in the matter of the Red Wedding may win or lose her the Starks and the North. I suppose it is the same, or similar, reason why she sees Westeros as a beautiful woman being ravaged by the claimants for the IT. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Can you explain the "cup of ice" part? I won't pretend to know what exactly was meant in the vision but the whole phrase goes " drink from a cup of ice, drink from a cup of fire". It is apparently quite metaphorical, but drinking from a cup is definitely not a metaphor related to someone's origin. Perhaps obtaining knowledge, tapping into a source of power... there might be a parallel between the drink she takes before entering HotU and the weirwood paste that induced Bran's visions, perhaps at some point, Dany will eat it, as well? Or perhaps she needs to learn about both fire and ice, to make the right decisions? Quite recently, there was an interesting thread about the occurence of "ice and fire" phrasing, you might want to take a look. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Lemon trees and Braavos. Several possibilities here but none I can see as pointing at her being half Stark: - Dany is mixing up her early childhood memories - GRRM messed up and Braavos originally had a warmer climate than he later wrote - Darry rented a house in a noble's compounds where a lemon tree could easily grow with a little extra care (Radio Westeros has a good and plausible theory that the house may have been the Sealord's property - the Sealord own a large area of greenery in Braavos. His signature on the pact with Dorne suggests that he was friendly towards the Targaryens, but there was also a change of Sealord some time after that. Perhaps the new one was not sympathetic to the Targaryen cause and after Darry's death, the servants kicked out Dany and Vis at his orders) 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Dany has "wake the dragon" dreams where she is running barefoot through a long stone corridor lined by dead kings... Sound familiar? Stark crypt dreams anyone? She's running through long stone corridors in the HotU, as well. There are also corridors in castles, and the whole corridor thing may even be just a metaphor for a long journey towards a distant goal, with no other way possible. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Not to mention she see's herself as Rhaegar... She has been fed stories about Rhaegar the hero since childhood, and has been compared to him. Definitely doesn't mean that she has to be his daughter. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: There are many more but I'll just end with this quote... From Ned's POV in Game: Yet last night he had dreamt of Rhaegar's children. Lord Tywin had laid the bodies beneath the Iron Throne, wrapped in the crimson cloaks of his house guard. That was clever of him; the blood did not show so badly against the red cloth. The little princess had been barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown, and the boy … the boy … Ned could not let that happen again. The realm could not withstand a second mad king, another dance of blood and vengeance. He must find some way to save the children. I'm afraid I don't understand what you think the quote signifies. He thinks about the atrocity commited on Rhaegar's children, and that Cersei's children would meet a similar fate. How is this supposed to imply that he had saved a girl and a boy previously? 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: All Daenerys wanted back was the big house with the red door, the lemon tree outside her window, the childhood she had never known. -Dany 1 Even the big house with the red door had not been home for him. (Viserys) -Dany 1 Home? The word made her feel sad. Ser Jorah had his Bear Island, but what was home to her? A few tales, names recited as solemnly as the words of a prayer, the fading memory of a red door… -Dany 6 She did take a dozen flasks of scented oils, the perfume of her childhood; she had only to close her eyes and sniff them and she could see the big house with the red door once more. -Dany 6 (Braavos smells like fish not roses) Braavos certainly smells like fish in the streets among the canals where Arya's, or Samwell's, PoVs are placed. A noble's house with a garden could easily smell of roses. 14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: She could smell home, she could see it, there, just beyond the door, green fields and great stone houses and arms to keep her warm, there. She threw open the door. Dany Game 9 Somewhere beyond the sunset, across the narrow sea, lay a land of green hills and flowered plains and great rushing rivers, where towers of dark stones rose amidst magnificent blue-grey mountains, and armored knights rode to battle beneath the banners of their lords. Danny 1 Banners of lords=Arms... and if Dany is really Rhaella's Stormborn, then she has never been to Westeros... Well, yes, she has never been to Westeros, but undoubtedly, Viserys described it to her. 13 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: First, fair... Sweet dreams... But how many other Targ dreams are of anything other than fire and dragons? And if she has different ancestors, maybe her dreams of them are different... Because I agree it doesn't sound like Starks... But it sure sounds like a crypt Of course that Targ dreams are not only about fire and dragons. The point is, there is nothing that would make this one a Stark dream, and as I wrote above, crypts are definitely not the only option. 13 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Song of Ice and Fire, after all... Which doesn't mean that Dany gets to be both when we already have a person who is both. His is a song of ice and fire, not "theirs". 13 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Speaking of which, I think the HotU vision with Rheagar, and the only time the series title is used... Is Jon and Lyanna... Not Aegon and Elia... GRRM has confirmed that the woman is Elia with newborn Aegon. Plus, it doesn't necessarily make Rhaegar right in whose this song is. 13 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: But that's whatever... The selling point for me is that he looks at Dany... If that's Aegon and the other head is Rhaenys, so he goes out and knocks up Lyanna with Jon as the last one... besides being totally wrong (unless we have a piss water princess too) it has nothing to do with Dany... And the return of Dragons... At the time when Rhaegar was saying this, the two heads were Aegon and Rhaenys and he needed one more, which was to become Jon. With Rhaenys dead, there would have to be yet one more (and if Aegon is not the real deal, then yet another). Also, it is not clear why Dany gets to see this scene - is Rhaegar telling her that she is one of the three heads, or is he explaining her why he thought he needed to do what he did? 12 hours ago, WSmith84 said: Dany being Lyanna's daughter would make Ned a terrible uncle. Seriously? He takes one child home with him to be raised as his son and kept safe, but sends the other to Essos to wander, impoverished and frightened? He couldn't think of anything better to do? Like have Howland raise Dany at Greywater Watch (it's not like they're holding tourneys there every other week)? And his response to Robert ordering his niece's assasination is to... resign? And nothing else? Yeah, seems like a shit uncle to me. Ned's the man who demanded justice for Elia and her children and took home his sister's child and claimed it as his own to protect him. I feel like Ned would do a bit more for Dany if she really was his niece. Very much this. he sends his sister's child away, doesn't bother to think about her, doesn't think anyone to look after her and support her after Darry dies.... and thinks that his promises to Lyanna are kept? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 4 hours ago, Ygrain said: Well said, and I'll be the first to say that you put forward what I would call the classic explanation of these things... But given all the odd bits (and maybe I'm gust grasping at straws) it becomes harder for me to explain why they were included than to explain them away... Now to the details, sorry for the formatting. Yes, the original statement does allow for some leeway but it is interesting how closely GRRM pinned it - not "somewhat less than a year", "a couple of months less than a full year", "more than half a year"... He has pinned it down in months, and that in a number corresponding closely to a length of pregnancy counted from a certain event. Plus, if you estimate something as 9-8, you can be wrong and it can be 10, but if you know it's 10, you wouldn't say 9-8. Unless that starts giving things away right? That's why you would be vague... And we agree it is vague Wiki is a secondary source, compiled from the books, SSMs and the like. The Worldbook is semi-canon, i.e. its information may not be correct. Plus, I can't get rid of the feeling that as GRRM sat down and tried to make a more precise timeline,he found out he had to squeeze the events. Originally, he stated that there was about a year between HH and Lyanna's abduction and that Lyanna was missing for a year (and it fitted: Jaime was 15 at HH and 17 at the Sack), but now it seems that the period became shorter, or the original SSM about Aegon beeing about a year old at the Sack is no longer valid. Elia's 6 months' bedrest seems to have evaporated... the timeline has become a mess. If Lyanna was missing for a year (or slightly over a year), she would have had to be far into her first pregnancy to manage another, and there has been no indication that she was preggers before her disappearance 100% agree. Yes we agree If my BF ordered a murder of a fourteen years old girl and I was holding an office for him, I would resign, too, as I wouldn't want to be involved with such a person any more. True, Honorable Ned has every reason to object on basic moral grounds, I just get the feeling it was personal, I'd have to go back to quotes too here... I'll have to take a look at the exact quote but given that Ned harbours Lyanna's baby who would be subject to the same blind hatred from Robert, I don't find anything suspicious about this connection. On the other hand, as pointed out below, I would expect Ned to do way more. WAY more. So my theory would be that he took home dark haired Jon and sent blond baby Dany off by ship to meet up with Darry and flee Dragonstone... So he would have done a lot, and potentially given Robert a reason to turn on him if he knew. Explains where the ship to cross the ocean comes from too... The one Dany remembers with green sails... Darry's ship likely came from some combination of Varys/Illyrio/Braavos, but the original story stinks to high hell. A fishing boat? A merchant's/smuggler's ship, i.e. not part of the fleet? If 1-2 ships out of, say, 50 remained usable, I guess it would be still possible to say that the "whole" fleet was sunk, as well. Maybe... Just seems like an odd contradiction to write in. Something looming over Dany's future? Some harmful forces at play over Dany's fate, one represented by the wolf and the other by the burning man? There is nothing pointing towards them as manifestations of her past or of what she is. Now there are many shadows dancing in the tent, and it seems unclear what other characters saw, it's the wolf and he burning man that Dany makes out... Could be nothing, just another odd thing... IIRC, it is said that the filly was her teacher and that she was an exceptionally good horse. Plus, on her silver, the first time in her life Dany ceased to be afraid, and that is also important at horseriding. So to sum, prior she had little experience, with who knows what kinds of horses, and was afraid. Now she has a superb horse and one hell of a self-confidence. It never struck me as weird that she learned to ride so well so quickly. this actually always jumped out to me since it's such a skill to be good with horses, and Dany makes such a display, she impressed dothraki... Not by any means a trait exclusive to Lyanna, but she's the big female example. Yes, I think it was the Red Wedding, and that it might have something to do with her being, or aspiring to be, a queen - "the mute appeal" with which the king with the wolf head is looking at her might be an appeal for justice. There is a lot that Dany doesn't know about the Starks, she still thinks about them as "Usurper's dogs", and if there is going to be a Dance of Dragons 2.0. between her and Aegon (true or false), her decision in the matter of the Red Wedding may win or lose her the Starks and the North. I suppose it is the same, or similar, reason why she sees Westeros as a beautiful woman being ravaged by the claimants for the IT. So I would argue that it doesn't make much sense for her to see the Red Wedding... And the line "mute appeal" jumps out at me, since it is a wolf head we are talking about, and we have one notoriously silent wolf... Ghost. Given Jon's current predicament I would suggest that maybe it's Jon she sees here and not Rob... I won't pretend to know what exactly was meant in the vision but the whole phrase goes " drink from a cup of ice, drink from a cup of fire". It is apparently quite metaphorical, but drinking from a cup is definitely not a metaphor related to someone's origin. Perhaps obtaining knowledge, tapping into a source of power... there might be a parallel between the drink she takes before entering HotU and the weirwood paste that induced Bran's visions, perhaps at some point, Dany will eat it, as well? Or perhaps she needs to learn about both fire and ice, to make the right decisions? so it probably deserves more explanation but I'm of the opinion that those lines match up with the visions she saw on the way in, she was asking about what she saw... The cup of ice lines up with the vision of he house with the red door, and the cup of fire lines up with the vision of Aerys on the throne... I'm suggesting these are the two legacies left her by the two sides of her family. Also the fact that she never recognized Aerys seemed worth noticing at the least (though easily explainable) Got to run but I'll be back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSmith84 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Sorry, but why would Ned send Dany off to Dragonstone where she'd risk being killed or captured, then spend the rest of her life in exile potentially fleeing assassins and one day might return to Westeros to claim the throne (as she indeed intends to do)? Why not just send her off with Howland Reed to be raised in the Neck? No one's going to find out about her there. It's just overly convoluted and silly for Ned to send her to Dragonstone when he had far better options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 19 hours ago, Ygrain said: You mean, Elia who was bedridden for half a year after the birth of Rhaenys? That's definitely not what I'd call the same timeframe, or do you claim that Rhaegar impregnated her while she was still recovering? Quote, please. Just a passing remark (/fun fact) in the middle of this very interesting exchange... - Rhaegar and Elia married in 280 and Rhaenys was born in 280. - Elia had already given birth to Aegon when Rhaegar left Dragonstone in January 282AC (or was about to, but this is another debate). So if one believes JonCon (that Elia was bedridden for six months), then Rhaegar did impregnate her while she was still recovering. The math is indisputable. Of course, even if Rhaenys's birth exhausted Elia (strength-wise), her body had enough time to recover for a second pregnancy (biologically-wise). So I'm not saying this proves anything either way (save perhaps that Rhaegar liked sex -like most humans do ) Of course, it seems possible that: 1) Martin made a mistake. 2) JonCon isn't that reliable. 1) is highly likely, but 2) is far more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Rippounet said: Just a passing remark (/fun fact) in the middle of this very interesting exchange... - Rhaegar and Elia married in 280 and Rhaenys was born in 280. - Elia had already given birth to Aegon when Rhaegar left Dragonstone in January 282AC (or was about to, but this is another debate). So if one believes JonCon (that Elia was bedridden for six months), then Rhaegar did impregnate her while she was still recovering. The math is indisputable. Of course, even if Rhaenys's birth exhausted Elia (strength-wise), her body had enough time to recover for a second pregnancy (biologically-wise). So I'm not saying this proves anything either way (save perhaps that Rhaegar liked sex -like most humans do ) Of course, it seems possible that: 1) Martin made a mistake. 2) JonCon isn't that reliable. 1) is highly likely, but 2) is far more interesting... The usual take on that is that there is a very short time frame after Elia had recovered when Rhaegar impregnated her with Aegon. That works. And it makes also sense considering that we Rhaegar apparently knew the exact date Aegon was conceived, suggesting that he and Elia didn't exactly have sex all that often - possibly only once after the birth of Rhaenys (after all, we know they weren't in love so there sex would have been a matter of duty rather than passion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HexMachina Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Rippounet said: Just a passing remark (/fun fact) in the middle of this very interesting exchange... - Rhaegar and Elia married in 280 and Rhaenys was born in 280. - Elia had already given birth to Aegon when Rhaegar left Dragonstone in January 282AC (or was about to, but this is another debate). So if one believes JonCon (that Elia was bedridden for six months), then Rhaegar did impregnate her while she was still recovering. The math is indisputable. Of course, even if Rhaenys's birth exhausted Elia (strength-wise), her body had enough time to recover for a second pregnancy (biologically-wise). So I'm not saying this proves anything either way (save perhaps that Rhaegar liked sex -like most humans do ) Of course, it seems possible that: 1) Martin made a mistake. 2) JonCon isn't that reliable. 1) is highly likely, but 2) is far more interesting... Or option 3) that "half a year" is an imprecise measurement meaning a heck of a long time much like people say "I've not seen you in weeks/months!" To mean they haven't seen each other in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveFirstDieLater Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 1 hour ago, WSmith84 said: Sorry, but why would Ned send Dany off to Dragonstone where she'd risk being killed or captured, then spend the rest of her life in exile potentially fleeing assassins and one day might return to Westeros to claim the throne (as she indeed intends to do)? Why not just send her off with Howland Reed to be raised in the Neck? No one's going to find out about her there. It's just overly convoluted and silly for Ned to send her to Dragonstone when he had far better options. So the argument for me would be that he made promises to Lyanna to "save the children". So he lies about Jon and fakes him as a bastard... That's harder with blond little Dany, so he has to find something else to do with her... For fear that if Robert finds out he's axe the little dragon spawn. So he gives her to someone he'd trust... Let's say Lord Dustin (who in this theory was likely wounded at the ToJ and couldn't ride away), after all Dany remembers Ser Willem had a limp... And we only learned that Lord Dustin's first name is William from the appendix of Dance with Dragons... Of course Ashara Dayne is another good possibility, since she's unaccounted for, besides the questionable stillborn girl and suicide by diving into the ocean. The reason to send them by ship is because it takes the clearly Targaryen across the narrow sea, out of Roberts reach... This is exactly what Ned suggests to Cersei when he's exercising that notorious mercy of his, to save her children... But you're missing a point here, the idea is that she didn't grow up in Braavos with Viserys... In fact she has a memory of sailing into Braavos (still waiting to see another ship with green sails), but no evidence that she ever returned there after the Sealord died. It is this event, the death of the Sealord of Braavos, about five years after Robert's Rebellion that ought to draw more attention. It also seems like the same time Jon Con was recruited to raise "Aegon". This is also when Dany and Viserys started their "flight" from the Usurper's Dogs and end up in Illyrio's Manse... Of course we now know there were no assassins before Ned resigns over it... So wether or not Viserys was duped or in on the lie is kind of immaterial at this point... But it sure seems to me like the two kids, or Dany at least, were manipulated... Likely by Illyrio... Who is in league with Varys... Who claims to have made the baby swap with "Aegon"... Now there is also the matter of the wedding pact between Dorn and Viserys. Of course here is no mention of Dany, and Darry was presumably there to sign, in addition to the Sealord. I would propose that this is when Dany met up with Viserys... Delivered by Oberin Martel, who signed for Dorn. Doran didn't want a war with Robert over the child, he was content to bide his time while Dany and Viserys wander Essos... It would also explain why she wasn't included in any sort of pact. Now dragons being born changes the equation... And as we see, while Quentin wanted Dany's hand, he was more interested in the Dragons themselves. As an aside, I think Darkstar knows about this and that's what makes him so dangerous... As well as why Doran is immediately suspicious of "Aegon". Is any of this clear or certain, of course not... But it's my working theory, I've got a bunch of quotes and I would like to make a whole thread with it later out in its entirety with more detail, but that takes time and effort, both things I have in short supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Well said, and I'll be the first to say that you put forward what I would call the classic explanation of these things... But given all the odd bits (and maybe I'm gust grasping at straws) it becomes harder for me to explain why they were included than to explain them away... Now to the details, sorry for the formatting. Nvm, I'll reformat easily. 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: Unless that starts giving things away right? That's why you would be vague... And we agree it is vague I'm afraid I find very little vagueness in a situation when someone is asked whether the time span X is about a year long and he replies with "no, 8-9 months or thereabouts". It depends on the context - if he was asked about exact dates, it would be vague. 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: True, Honorable Ned has every reason to object on basic moral grounds, I just get the feeling it was personal, I'd have to go back to quotes too here... I have read the chapter where they quarrel about the assassination, and I cannot find any mention of Lyanna right there. Ned is reminded about Rhaegar, and later on about secrets too dangerous to share, but no Lyanna. Or did you mean a different part of text? 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: So my theory would be that he took home dark haired Jon and sent blond baby Dany off by ship to meet up with Darry and flee Dragonstone... So he would have done a lot, and potentially given Robert a reason to turn on him if he knew. Explains where the ship to cross the ocean comes from too. Doesn't explain, though, why send the child to DS at all. That makes Dany's existence known, basically paints a target on her craddle. What if Jon Arryn was unable to convince Robert not to send assassins? What if Tywin Lannister decided to tie the loose ends? Or someone else sought to ingratiate himself with Robert? To keep the hypothetical sibling safe, the best thing would be to do what Ned did with Jon: keep her secret. Either ask HR to raise her in the Neck, or involve the Daynes and let them raise her there, or, if Ashara, whose reputation is ruined beyond repair, fakes suicide, then she can be the baby's guardian and move for Essoss where a Valyrian-looking baby won't be so obvious. It makes absolutely no sense to ship her to Viserys. Also, I am a bit at a loss here. The Targ fleet was destroyed by a storm, right? But that was 9 months after the Sack, why wait so long before transporting the baby to her family? And again, while the Targ fleet (anchored before Dragonstone) was destroyed by the storm, it doesn't mean that there wasn't a number of other ships (civilian ships, not part of the fleet) which remained available for passage to Essos. 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: this actually always jumped out to me since it's such a skill to be good with horses, and Dany makes such a display, she impressed dothraki... Not by any means a trait exclusive to Lyanna, but she's the big female example. I can see where you are coming from but as I re-read the passage, it is made clear that silver is the best mare in the khalasar, a truly exceptional animal, superbly trained and responding to the slightest touch. It is highlighted that the first time in her life, Dany felt no fear, and she even felt daring. Also, the Dothraki who are hooting, laughing and shouting at her, seem more approving than impressed. It stands out that it is a remarkable horse and a remarkable moment for Dany, not that there is anything remarkable about her horsemanship. 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: So I would argue that it doesn't make much sense for her to see the Red Wedding... And the line "mute appeal" jumps out at me, since it is a wolf head we are talking about, and we have one notoriously silent wolf... Ghost. Given Jon's current predicament I would suggest that maybe it's Jon she sees here and not Rob... The vision of the feast of the dead comes directly after the vision of the beautiful woman/Westeros being raped and savaged, so we might also conclude that this is all about the state of Westeros - even the most sacred values like guestright are being savaged. However, I do not dispute that your idea has merit. Ages ago, there was even a thread which focused on the inconsistencies between the vision and RW but it is probably long lost in the archives. I don't recall if the connection to Jon was made there, though. 2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: so it probably deserves more explanation but I'm of the opinion that those lines match up with the visions she saw on the way in, she was asking about what she saw... The cup of ice lines up with the vision of he house with the red door, and the cup of fire lines up with the vision of Aerys on the throne... I'm suggesting these are the two legacies left her by the two sides of her family. Also the fact that she never recognized Aerys seemed worth noticing at the least (though easily explainable) There are more vision than just those two, though, and I don't think it is correct to choose which ones to pair them with a statement that comes only afterwards: “I have come for the gift of truth,” Dany said. “In the long hall, the things I saw . . . were they true visions, or lies? Past things, or things to come? What did they mean?” . . . the shape of shadows . . . morrows not yet made . . . drink from the cup of ice . . . drink from the cup of fire . . . The answer comes in dichotomies - the shape of shadows seem things past which affect the future, morrows not yet made are the possible future. Ice and fire are then presented as another pair, as if possible sources, or aspects, that form or affect the visions. I don't think that the context of the question and answer seem to suggest anything about Dany's origin. Yes, I think it is very easy to explain why she never recognized Aerys - she thinks that "Mad king" is merely the rebels' fabrication and knows nothing about his plan to burn KL, thus she has no basis to think that this deteriorated mad figure might be her own father. I've read the description of the crypt at Winterfell, and there are supposed to be pair of granite pillars along it, and the kings of winter are seated on their thrones, with a direwolf curled at their feet and a sword laid across their lap. On the other hand, Dany's fever dream has ghost of kings in faded rainments and swords like pale fire in their hands. A completely different image. The only similarity I can see is that both the crypts as well as her dream suggest at passing between one's ancestors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ygrain Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 24 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said: I would propose that this is when Dany met up with Viserys... Delivered by Oberin Martel, who signed for Dorn. Doran didn't want a war with Robert over the child, he was content to bide his time while Dany and Viserys wander Essos... It would also explain why she wasn't included in any sort of pact. Why would Viserys accept Dany as his sister, though? That is rather inconceivable. Also, Dany's absence in the pact doesn't really point to anything. The heir of House Targaryen and the heiress of House Martell. Quentyn is not mentioned, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 1 hour ago, HelenaExMachina said: Or option 3) that "half a year" is an imprecise measurement meaning a heck of a long time much like people say "I've not seen you in weeks/months!" To mean they haven't seen each other in a while Yeah, that too. Actually it's probably the best explanation. It also fits Martin's tendency to think of time in rough terms (months or years) rather than being precise (weeks) like the fans. 1 hour ago, Lord Varys said: The usual take on that is that there is a very short time frame after Elia had recovered when Rhaegar impregnated her with Aegon. That works. And it makes also sense considering that we Rhaegar apparently knew the exact date Aegon was conceived, suggesting that he and Elia didn't exactly have sex all that often - possibly only once after the birth of Rhaenys (after all, we know they weren't in love so there sex would have been a matter of duty rather than passion). If you take six months at face value, that time frame is almost non-existant (9+6+9= 24 months = 2 years). But yes, given the other minor oddities we have in the books as far as time periods are concerned, it works. Of course this supposes Rhaenys was conceived immediately after the marriage (pretty much on the wedding night) and was born in October 280AC. But this minor oddity with Elia made me wonder how Martin viewed pregnancies exactly... Because this means Elia was very fertile... And lucky. Given her frailty, I find that to be a minor oddity of its own (though I know that fertility and good health aren't always related). This is of course made far far worse if you think that Rhaegar did not love Elia and didn't have a lot of sex with her (a view I don't share tbh, but this is ot). At any rate, it's not surprising that such minor oddities have spawned theories, or are used to support some. Sometimes you just have to wonder whether such oddities are there for a reason or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redtree Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 It was mentioned that when Willem Darry fled DS he brought Viserys, baby Danny and a wet nurse so the idea that Dany was delivered to Viserys is quite baseless unless that statement was incorrect. Beside,Viserys who wasn't a very good actor had never called Dany anything but his sister. It's possible that she was raised not in Braavos because of the lemongate but i think she had always been with Viserys and truly his sister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.