KG at the ToJ mean Lyanna didn't die birthing Jon...

[finger]

I'm not sure I fancy defend my case but,...

There wasn't anything or anyone at ToJ. The KG,s had gone there to use it as what it was: a watchtower commanding the Prince's Pass. But let's move on.

What happens when a prince is in danger? For one, listen to Tyrion talking of his sister with his cousin:

Lancel: "The queen intends to send Prince Tommen away. Lord Gyles will take him to Rosby, and conceal him there in the guise of a page. They plan to darken his hair and tell everyone that he is the son of a hedge knight."

Till now, it rather hints at Aurane Waters possibly being Viserys, even tough this seems a red herring. But later Tyrion address Bronn: "My sister will send one of the Kingsguard with the prince."

I can't help to still getting astonished at how gladly people accept that poor Aegon was left at KL to be slaughtered by the first brute who dared. HE WASN'T. He was sent to his father with the Lord Commander of the KG. When his father left, three KG remained to keep Prince Aegon safe, and also to look after Lyanna. When KL fell, the KG,s didn't go to Prince Viserys, but stayed with King Aegon. And when it was decided that the king had better flee, they went to the Pass to make their last stance: their lives for heir king's. They planned to keep coming forces from entering Dorne and give other loyals more time. (The same as the black brother left at Skirling Pass, btw, or Leonidas at the Termopilae.)

Take it or leave it, but I don't think I'll argue.

[Rippounet]

1 minute ago, Ygrain said:

GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope.

Plus, people who are better with numbers made a count that he could have reached ToJ within 6-8 weeks.

6-8 weeks from King's Landing I suppose. But when Ned left King's Landing, Rhaella had already been gone for several weeks herself... And since she was already pregnant when she left, it adds at least another month... Making Jon about 7 months older than Daenerys if he was born at the ToJ.

Of course, there's always the possibility that it took her many weeks to die after giving birth... But the "scent of blood" make that unlikely.

Anyway your point is well taken.
Crazy crackpot: Martin made a mistake somewhere. Not a huge one, but just enough for the stuff not to add up if you look too closely. Which breads countless theories over the years we're waiting for the next book.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

4 minutes ago, finger said:

I'm not sure I fancy defend my case but,...

There wasn't anything or anyone at ToJ. The KG,s had gone there to use it as what it was: a watchtower commanding the Prince's Pass. But let's move on.

What happens when a prince is in danger? For one, listen to Tyrion talking of his sister with his cousin:

Lancel: "The queen intends to send Prince Tommen away. Lord Gyles will take him to Rosby, and conceal him there in the guise of a page. They plan to darken his hair and tell everyone that he is the son of a hedge knight."

Till now, it rather hints at Aurane Waters possibly being Viserys, even tough this seems a red herring. But later Tyrion address Bronn: "My sister will send one of the Kingsguard with the prince."

I can't help to still getting astonished at how gladly people accept that poor Aegon was left at KL to be slaughtered by the first brute who dared. HE WASN'T. He was sent to his father with the Lord Commander of the KG. When his father left, three KG remained to keep Prince Aegon safe, and also to look after Lyanna. When KL fell, the KG,s didn't go to Prince Viserys, but stayed with King Aegon. And when it was decided that the king had better flee, they went to the Pass to make their last stance: their lives for heir king's. They planned to keep coming forces from entering Dorne and give other loyals more time. (The same as the black brother left at Skirling Pass, btw, or Leonidas at the Termopilae.)

Take it or leave it, but I don't think I'll argue.

So, if the supposed baby swap happened so early, how did they keep it a secret? All it takes is one servant to run to Robert and tell him that the dead baby is not the prince/king.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

6 minutes ago, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

They dont use month names, they just use dates. Daenerys name day is listed in European style 1/6/298. I added the month name to make it easier because the Euro date set up makes me look at as January.

Got ya, I'll have to inspect more closely when I'm not on a phone... But I suspect that it acts like things are more certain than they are... I had to draw a number of timelines that could all be possible just to look at the different possibilities... But again it's not fair of me to complain before I give it a real read...

[The Ned's Little Girl]

41 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

What's fact is the likelihood.

However, "likelihood" of times and distances are definitely subordinate to the needs of the story. If GRRM decides, for instance, that the story requires that the 3 KG hear the news of the battle of the Trident the day after it happens, he'll do it that way. Real-world calculations be damned.

That caveat needs to be kept in mind with every calculation of time or distance possibilities, meaning that relying on these sorts of calculations to buttress a theory could be problematic.

[finger]

18 minutes ago, FreyPiesForSkagos said:

So, if the supposed baby swap happened so early, how did they keep it a secret? All it takes is one servant to run to Robert and tell him that the dead baby is not the prince/king.

Most probably, Tywin knew, and made sure that no one would tell Robert. Never forget that Robert had no real reason to trust Tywin, so he presented him with that bloody gift, as a token of loyalty. In fact, Tywin found KL's gates open since Aerys thought he was coming to join him against Robert.

Anyway, no wonder Elia was most careful. To find more clues about this, watch Val.

[Ygrain]

24 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

6-8 weeks from King's Landing I suppose. But when Ned left King's Landing, Rhaella had already been gone for several weeks herself... And since she was already pregnant when she left, it adds at least another month... Making Jon about 7 months older than Daenerys if he was born at the ToJ.

I don't think that Ned stayed in KL very long - Robert must have arrived soon after him, to be presented the rather fresh bodies of Rhaegar's family, and there was no reason for Ned to linger.

Also, GRRM's statement contained that "thereabouts" part allowing a leeway, and Lyanna may have battled puerperal fever longer than the average, which, all in all, do not make the timeframe that impossible.

24 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Of course, there's always the possibility that it took her many weeks to die after giving birth... But the "scent of blood" make that unlikely.

Actually, it doesn't. Women continue bleeding 4-6 weeks after the delivery, and one of the symptoms of puerperal fever is excessive bleeding.

24 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Crazy crackpot: Martin made a mistake somewhere. Not a huge one, but just enough for the stuff not to add up if you look too closely. Which breads countless theories over the years we're waiting for the next book.

He definitely did - he admitted that he made the continent too big, and that he never counted the travel times and distances :-)

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

10 minutes ago, finger said:

Most probably, Tywin knew, and made sure that no one would tell Robert. Never forget that Robert had no real reason to trust Tywin, so he presented him with that bloody gift, as a token of loyalty. In fact, Tywin found KL's gates open since Aerys thought he was coming to join him against Robert.

Anyway, no wonder Elia was most careful. To find more clues about this, watch Val.

I guess I am not really convinced that that would have worked. With such an early swap, there would have been dozens of people who would have known, right? How does Tywin find them all and make sure they should up for ever?

[Rippounet]

23 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

However, "likelihood" of times and distances are definitely subordinate to the needs of the story. If GRRM decides, for instance, that the story requires that the 3 KG hear the news of the battle of the Trident the day after it happens, he'll do it that way. Real-world calculations be damned.

That caveat needs to be kept in mind with every calculation of time or distance possibilities, meaning that relying on these sorts of calculations to buttress a theory could be problematic.

Yes, I'm starting ro realise just how bad Martin may have been with time or distance and what this might mean.

Some "basic" assumptions may be wrong here or there... I just hope no plot twist will be based on a wrong estimate somewhere.

19 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Actually, it doesn't. Women continue bleeding 4-6 weeks after the delivery, and one of the symptoms of puerperal fever is excessive bleeding.

All right. Having Jon born several weeks before Ned arrives does solve several small issues.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Yes, I'm starting ro realise just how bad Martin may have been with time or distance and what this might mean.

Some "basic" assumptions may be wrong here or there... I just hope no plot twist will be based on a wrong estimate somewhere.

All right. Having Jon born several weeks before Ned arrives does solve several small issues.

I'll be the first one to say that the timeline is a mess and we shouldn't be clocking travel times to use as evidence for our tinfoil theories...

but I find it hard to believe GRRM didn't account for pregnancy times... 9 months being an easy estimate.

One problem I have is that from Rhaegar leaving the Tower of Joy, to Lyanna's coming to term is one pregnancy... And Rhaella's impregnation (when Chelstead was burned), and Rhaegar was present, is another pregnancy... For the two kids to be nine months apart is literally no travel time and still doesn't address why Hightower would be waiting around at the Tower of Joy once he found out Rheagar was dead (which happened after the burning but before the sack of kings landing)...

but ok let's just say it's a mess timeline wise, that doesn't support or take away from either theory...

That still leaves some big questions, among them why did the KG stay at the Tower of Joy if they didn't know the gender of the child... And how can Rhaegar be present when both Lyanna and Rhaella get pregnant, and have the kids born 9 months apart...while still leaving room in the timeline for things like the siege of stormsend lasting about a year, and not even being sent for until at least into the year 283...

[LiveFirstDieLater]

4 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

There's no evidence that Catelyn is a bad source of information on Jon, especially regarding his age. Sure, she's biased against him but that doesn't preclude her being accurate about his age and development.

She believed him to be Ned's bastard conceived after their marriage and she believed that until she died. As the mother of five children herself, there's no cause to consider that she could be mistaken about the age of a baby.

In addition, if she could have believed that Jon was older than Robb - and therefore not a product of infidelity by her husband - don't you think she would have grabbed onto that belief and held onto it for dear life, thereby saving herself a great deal of grief and bitterness?

 

Ok so I'll start by saying I never liked Cat, so maybe I'm being unfair, but...

I don't see any evidence for or against her ability to guess children's age (as opposed to Tyrion) but I do think she shows a general bias against Jon.

Also, there is a huge reason she wouldn't want to believe that Jon is older than Rob... And she addresses it directly when talking to Rob about his will.

Inheritance.

In context it is about who would be Rob's heir... But... If Jon were to be legitimized as a Stark, and he was older than Rob, he would have a claim on Winterfell (a claim, mind you, was no guarantee, as one can see in the series and real life medieval history, of ever holding the title).

So she has every interest as a mother (a role she seems to play at a lot) in not having Jon be older than Rob, or legitimated. In fact might that not be a good reason to hate the kid.

Given that they were both infants (note: Elia's son Aegon was killed as "an infant at the breast" at over a year old - born end of 281 died 283) when Cat first saw Rob and Jon side by side and not newborns, I believe there is quite enough room for error.

In addition, keep in mind that for Dany to have been born in 284 and that to be 9 months after the sack of kings landing, Elia's Aegon would have to have made it at least 3 months into 283 before meeting the mountain and the wall.

[Rippounet]

10 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but ok let's just say it's a mess timeline wise, that doesn't support or take away from either theory...

I think that's the gist of it. It doesn't mean your theory about Lyanna having two pregnancies is impossible at all. It just means that some elements like travel distances can't be safely relied upon to support such theories.
Samewise, the SSM stating that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany (that is so so often quoted) should actually be taken with a pinch of salt, given the context of the statement (Martin was answering a question about whether Jon was one year older than Dany and said "closer to 8-9 months or thereabouts", so maybe he gave an estimate that is slightly off one way or the other).
And there's more: when an information comes from a single character, one must seriously consider the possibility that the character is wrong or biased. Take Barristan's thought about Ashara's pregnancy or JonCon's thoughts about Elia's pregnancies for example. Even Ned isn't 100% reliable, since his judgment may have been clouded by his love for Lyanna.
Not to mention the fact that some visions and prophecies are vague at best, and bulls**t at worst.

I'm pretty sure there's still a big reveal waiting for us in the next books. No doubt some assumptions will have to be questioned when we get fresh elements.

 

[MtnLion]

4 hours ago, Rippounet said:

6-8 weeks from King's Landing I suppose. But when Ned left King's Landing, Rhaella had already been gone for several weeks herself... And since she was already pregnant when she left, it adds at least another month... Making Jon about 7 months older than Daenerys if he was born at the ToJ.

Actually, when you consider that GRRM has Rhaegar and his army go to the Trident and lose a battle, AND Ned capable of driving the winning army to King's Landing in a fortnight, TOTAL, you need to throw all of your rulers and stopwatches out the window.  There is no way that an army is going to travel faster than a wheelhouse, but it is clear that he did it. 

Why is it clear?  Chelsted is roasted, Rhaella raped, and likely Rossart appointed Hand within a 24 hour period.  Rossart is killed by Jaime as he reflects that he had been hand for only a fortnight.  More, Jonothor Darry died at the Trident, with Rhaegar, but he is present for the raping of Rhaella.  More, Jaime sees the marks on Rhaella's flesh as she leaves King's Landing the day of news of the Trident arriving, which has to be a week after the raping, if it is a fortnight there would be no marks.  So, we have one week to the Trident, actually less because there is a battle, too.  And, one week back, for an army. 

Ned selects a small party, very interesting that he selects Ethan Glover, who has been imprisoned by the Mad King for the duration of the war.  And, it appears that he goes directly to the tower.  He left King's Landing the day of the sack, or at the latest, the day after.  He went to Storm's End and lifted the siege.  Then he turned toward recovering Lyanna.  It is easy for GRRM to have him do all of that in a week, if he wants.  I believe GRRM's intention was a fortnight.

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Yes, I'm starting ro realise just how bad Martin may have been with time or distance and what this might mean.

Some "basic" assumptions may be wrong here or there... I just hope no plot twist will be based on a wrong estimate somewhere.

Ah, there we go . . .

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

All right. Having Jon born several weeks before Ned arrives does solve several small issues

With puerperal fever, mortality is 3-10 days after birth.  (There are some (very small percentage points) extreme cases, but GRRM has given us an example of three days.)  So, Sack to TOJ, Jon being 8 months (four week months) older than Daenerys, is 17-24 days, Jon being 9 months older than Daenerys, is negative numbers, but GRRM has done that in the past. 

[corbon]

6 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I'll be the first one to say that the timeline is a mess and we shouldn't be clocking travel times to use as evidence for our tinfoil theories...

but I find it hard to believe GRRM didn't account for pregnancy times... 9 months being an easy estimate.

One problem I have is that from Rhaegar leaving the Tower of Joy, to Lyanna's coming to term is one pregnancy... And Rhaella's impregnation (when Chelstead was burned), and Rhaegar was present, is another pregnancy... For the two kids to be nine months apart is literally no travel time

8-9 months apart. Or Thereabouts. But travel time is not a direct issue. They are in different times and places and no one is present for both the first birth and second conception. So no one is having to do near instantaneous travel. The nearest is Ned, who arrives at KL some time after the second conception and also arrives at ToJ some time after the first birth. So he has to get from KL to ToJ (with SE in between) but there are four uncertainties to factor in - how long after the conception (U1), how long after the birth (U2)) and 8-9 months of thereabouts (U3) difference between them plus the actual length of Dany's gestation (not always exactly 9 months, (U4). Throw in GRRMs roughness with travel times and distances (call that U5 if you like) and its all so vague that there's no way to clearly show any problem here.

Quote

and still doesn't address why Hightower would be waiting around at the Tower of Joy once he found out Rheagar was dead (which happened after the burning but before the sack of kings landing)...

Rhaegar's death happened between the burning and the sack, but news would have reached ToJ in packets. Its very clear that they already know of the Sack, so the packet they received must be after the Sack and its likely they received all that news in one packet (they are not on the raven network so news is difficult).

So its likely Hightower wasn't waiting around 'after the news of Rhaegars death but before the news of the sack'.
And even if he was, he might think he should go to king Aerys at that stage, but his Oath does not require it. The King is still protected by KG (Jaime), so the other KG don't necessarily have license to abandon their current orders. Only after the sack, after Viserys apparently becomes king and is not protected by any KG, only then does their Oath (as best we can tell) require some of them at least to abandon their current missions in favour of returning to the King.

Quote

That still leaves some big questions, among them why did the KG stay at the Tower of Joy if they didn't know the gender of the child...

Well first, its quite possible that the child was already born before they got news of the sack.
Second, setting aside Aerys' proclamation of Viserys as his heir, which the KG don't appear to have heard of (and logically are unlikely to have heard of) with Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon dead then if Lyanna's legitimate child is a boy, he's the king. If a girl, Viserys is (should be) their King.
In the real world monarchies that use the same or very similar system as the Targaryens, if there is an unborn child who would potentially be king there is an Interregnum with no King until the child is born. This has happened at least twice in european history, both in france and spain, once for only a few days or so and once for over 5 months. Its very likely that this would be the situation facing Hightower and so if the child is unborn when he hears the news its likely he'd stay to find out. Viserys is not the king so Hightower is no required to go to him.
It seems sensible in that case for Hightower to send one at least of the others to Viserys, but its a maybe case on a maybe case, so its not really a flaw that he didn't do that, it just means the other cases are more likely.

Quote

And how can Rhaegar be present when both Lyanna and Rhaella get pregnant, and have the kids born 9 months apart...

Er, duh, because first he was in place A with girl A, and nine-ish months later he was in place B where girl B was? There is no issue here at all.

Quote

while still leaving room in the timeline for things like the siege of stormsend lasting about a year, and not even being sent for until at least into the year 283...

The siege of SE starts a little bit into the war (Robert has to rush home and lasts a little bit past the war (Ned has to get to SE to end it). Thats about a year with plenty of wiggle room for other 'abouts' etc.
If Jon is born 0-1 months (+/- some wiggle room) after the Sack, then he was conceived around 3-4 months into the war. Which is about the same time, maybe a fraction after, as the BotBells appears to be. So at that point Rhaegar is still hiding with Lyanna and getting her pregnant. Then after BoBells Hightower is sent to find Rhaegar. 8-9 months later Rhaegar is leaving KL with the royal army heading to the Trident and a few weeks later Dany is conceived after the Trident. It all fits, no problems.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

I think that the easiest explanation is that the 3 King's Guard had no idea that Aerys made Viserys his heir. It does not seem to be a widely talked about or known fact.

Well, this is the usual way to try to explain this away but there are a number of problems with that.

1. Ned could have told them. I mean, it is quite clear that if the Kingsguard considered Lyanna's son their king and were fighting for him against Eddard Stark and his men then they would have told that to Ned. Ned's dream version of events - which do not reflect accurately what actually happened (which is confirmed by George) - omits that, of course. The fact that Ned only took six trustworthy friends with him also suggests that he expected to find Lyanna either pregnant from Rhaegar or with a child, and he may also have expected the missing KG to be with her, so there would be a rather good reason for him to dissuade them from dying for 'their king' by pointing out that 'their king' wasn't 'their king' in their late king's eyes. I mean, that would easily have kicked Gerold Hightower off his high horse who was just rambling on about how Aerys would still sit the Iron Throne if he had learned that his late king had actually chosen his successor. And an apparently Aerys loyalist like dream-Hightower wouldn't presumably have supported the king who had been anointed by Aerys. It would not have been the place of the Kingsguard to counter that by proclaiming that King Aerys II would have chosen Lyanna's son as his heir had he known that he existed (perhaps Aerys even knew - from Rhaegar - that Lyanna had been pregnant?). What matters is that Aerys II chose Prince Viserys as his successor - the reason why or how he reached that conclusion is irrelevant to a loyal servant like a KG. You do not second-guess or reinterpret your king so that you can do what you want rather than what you are supposed to be doing (at least not if you are considering yourself to be 'loyal' to your king).

Since we have a good reason to assume that Ned found somebody who could point him to the tower - a person he may have chanced upon in KL - he would also have had a chance to talk to the survivors of Aerys' Small Council (Pycelle, Varys, whoever else survived) and he could easily have learned about Aerys' decision to name Viserys his heir from them. After all, for Robert the whereabouts of the Queen Dowager and the only surviving Targaryen prince would have been of vital importance. Ned and the other rebels would have learned from people at court that Rhaella and Viserys had been sent to Dragonstone, and would subsequently also heard from them about the circumstances surrounding this (that Aerys II had named Viserys his heir). There would have been no reason to not mention this.

2. Second the there is the problem of the accuracy of information. Even if we assume (or rather: presuppose) that the Kingsguard had received information on events in KL and at the Trident this wouldn't necessarily have been good information. They could not know for a certainty that Aerys II, Prince Aegon, and even Prince Rhaegar were dead beyond the shadow of a doubt. If the war hadn't been lost at this point you could, perhaps, find some rationale as why they would have to crown a new king to keep the war going (just as the Blacks continued to fight against Aegon II in the name of Aegon III) but the war had been lost. Crowning or proclaiming a king would have been an utterly stupid move. It would not only draw attention to Lyanna's son but eventually also fracture the Targaryen cause if Queen Rhaella crowned another king (Viserys III) in the meantime. Presumably you cannot change your king as you change your clothes so technically the knights couldn't easily have abandoned their king in favor of Viserys III - who most certainly would have been the pretender who would have prevailed among the Targaryen loyalists considering that he was Aerys' chosen heir, crowned and supported by the Queen Dowager, and - most importantly - actually a confirmed Targaryen with Valyrian looks (whereas the status of Lyanna's son was complicated at best).

3. Another thing is the fact that you would simply not expect a Kingsguard to ever proclaim, anoint, or crown a king. That's the kind of thing a despised man like the Kingmaker did. As it turns out the succession wasn't as clear/mechanical as many people seem to assume in their ignorance. It is by no means clear that the child of the Prince of Dragonstone is confirmed as heir by a monarch in the wake of said prince's death. We see this happening multiple times - Jaehaerys I does not name Princess Rhaenys, undoubtedly the heiress of her late father, Prince Aemon, Princess of Dragonstone. And the succession of King Maekar I was apparently completely unclear in the wake of Prince Aerion's death in 232 AC (he may or may not have been Prince of Dragonstone at that point). If the Kingsguard is expected to proclaim or crown a king upon the death of the previous king then the Kingsguard closest to Princess Vaella or Prince Maegor would have been expected to do so after the news about Maekar's unfortunate death reached KL, Dragonstone, or Summerhall (or wherever those people were at that time).

In connection to that we also see that heirs usually aren't kings until their are crowned. The cabal who stages the coup against Rhaenyra's ascension in 129 AC only refers to Prince Aegon as King Aegon II after his coronation weeks after the death of Viserys I. That means that even if Lyanna's son had been the Prince of Dragonstone and the anointed heir of his grandfather by the time Ned arrived at the tower - he would still not have been 'the king'. He would have been 'the future king' or the 'the king to be crowned soon'. All this makes it clear that nobody in-universe actually expects the Kingsguard to consider some prince their king before he actually is crowned (and even then they are, technically, free to abandon or reject him as the Kingsguard who abandoned Maegor the Cruel or Aegon II confirm). They are free to have a private opinion as human beings who should or shouldn't be king, but they are not expected to crown or proclaim kings.

And there would be no incentive for the knights of the tower to change that pattern and suddenly make themselves the champions of some doomed pretender (Lyanna's son would have been nothing else).

4. The unreal nature of the dream setting may testify more to Ned's belief that Lyanna's son/Jon Snow is actually the rightful king or his belief that the knights at the tower thought he may be the rightful king than to the actual beliefs/convictions of the knights. All the symbolism in the scene is created in Ned's head. It may have been completely different in reality. Not to mention that the dream sequence could actually be used as a means to foreshadow the eventual fate of Jon Snow. If he becomes King (at Daenerys' side) then some symbolism in the dream that the knights at the tower already may have believed that in Ned's mind would nicely tie into all that. But that doesn't mean that the knights at the tower actually believed Lyanna's son was 'the king'.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

9 hours ago, corbon said:

8-9 months apart. Or Thereabouts. But travel time is not a direct issue. They are in different times and places and no one is present for both the first birth and second conception. So no one is having to do near instantaneous travel. The nearest is Ned, who arrives at KL some time after the second conception and also arrives at ToJ some time after the first birth. So he has to get from KL to ToJ (with SE in between) but there are four uncertainties to factor in - how long after the conception (U1), how long after the birth (U2)) and 8-9 months of thereabouts (U3) difference between them plus the actual length of Dany's gestation (not always exactly 9 months, (U4). Throw in GRRMs roughness with travel times and distances (call that U5 if you like) and its all so vague that there's no way to clearly show any problem here.

Rhaegar's death happened between the burning and the sack, but news would have reached ToJ in packets. Its very clear that they already know of the Sack, so the packet they received must be after the Sack and its likely they received all that news in one packet (they are not on the raven network so news is difficult).

So its likely Hightower wasn't waiting around 'after the news of Rhaegars death but before the news of the sack'.
And even if he was, he might think he should go to king Aerys at that stage, but his Oath does not require it. The King is still protected by KG (Jaime), so the other KG don't necessarily have license to abandon their current orders. Only after the sack, after Viserys apparently becomes king and is not protected by any KG, only then does their Oath (as best we can tell) require some of them at least to abandon their current missions in favour of returning to the King.

Well first, its quite possible that the child was already born before they got news of the sack.
Second, setting aside Aerys' proclamation of Viserys as his heir, which the KG don't appear to have heard of (and logically are unlikely to have heard of) with Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon dead then if Lyanna's legitimate child is a boy, he's the king. If a girl, Viserys is (should be) their King.
In the real world monarchies that use the same or very similar system as the Targaryens, if there is an unborn child who would potentially be king there is an Interregnum with no King until the child is born. This has happened at least twice in european history, both in france and spain, once for only a few days or so and once for over 5 months. Its very likely that this would be the situation facing Hightower and so if the child is unborn when he hears the news its likely he'd stay to find out. Viserys is not the king so Hightower is no required to go to him.
It seems sensible in that case for Hightower to send one at least of the others to Viserys, but its a maybe case on a maybe case, so its not really a flaw that he didn't do that, it just means the other cases are more likely.

Er, duh, because first he was in place A with girl A, and nine-ish months later he was in place B where girl B was? There is no issue here at all.

The siege of SE starts a little bit into the war (Robert has to rush home and lasts a little bit past the war (Ned has to get to SE to end it). Thats about a year with plenty of wiggle room for other 'abouts' etc.
If Jon is born 0-1 months (+/- some wiggle room) after the Sack, then he was conceived around 3-4 months into the war. Which is about the same time, maybe a fraction after, as the BotBells appears to be. So at that point Rhaegar is still hiding with Lyanna and getting her pregnant. Then after BoBells Hightower is sent to find Rhaegar. 8-9 months later Rhaegar is leaving KL with the royal army heading to the Trident and a few weeks later Dany is conceived after the Trident. It all fits, no problems.

Some nice points here, but let me try and explain what I'm having trouble with a little better...

Also, the GRRM quote is closer to 8-9 months than a year, which while certainly vague does provide some basis for speculation...

If Lyanna and Rhaella died in childbirth roughly 9 months apart... The conceptions should be roughly 9 months apart too...

Rhaegar had to be there for Lyanna getting pregnant right? And we assume he at least knew she was pregnant before he left (thus the kingsguard) right? (Unless there was already a baby!)

Rhaegar was present for the burning of Chelstead (which was the night Rhaella got pregnant). It also likely prompted him to tell Jaime that there would be changes when he returns from war... 

Then it seems like in almost no time at all there is the battle of the Trident, Rhaegar dies, Rhaella flees with Viserys, and the Sack of Kings Landing.

Keep in mind, these events are all in 283AC after the Battle of the Bells...

Also, in 283AC Ned marries Cat and gets her pregnant...  Let's just pretend the battle, wedding, and conception were all on day one of the year...

So forgetting travel time for Ned or armies... After 283 starts... And no time passes between then, going to river run, getting married, getting Cat pregnant, and hanging out for two weeks. So still counting from day one of 283 we are looking at nine months before Rob is born.

If Rob is older than Jon (big if) then the ToJ showdown was in the last three months of the year...

Ok now bring in the third baby... Dany finds she is pregnant on her 14th birthday, no not that baby... This helps us place Dany's birthday.

Ned discusses it after the Tourney of the Hand (at least six months into the year) and she is still 14 when she sees the comet the next year... So her birthday is in the first half of the year... Or thereabouts

If the showdown at the ToJ has to be in the last three months of the year, and nine months later Stormborn is in the first six months... (Because if we include time for things like travel and weddings it simply isn't possible)

Then looks like there isn't much wiggle room there. Count backwards to when Jon would be conceived and its day one of the year... Again not much time for Rob to be conceived first.

but hell, let's say it's a matter of a day or a few minutes... Or just there are timeline problems...

It still doesn't explain why nearly half the Kingsguard remain at the Tower of Joy... Even if they knew Lyanna was pregnant they wouldn't know it was a boy...

You can try and explain this by following orders and just waiting to see what the kid is going to be... 

But in the middle of a war I find it hard to believe these heroes of the monarchy sit on their hands at some tower in the south on a hunch or some dead prince's order...

but I'll be the first to admit the whole timeline is murky at best... Still, it is way easier to fit Lyanna getting pregnant twice, than it is to make this classic one work (even with teleportation).

It also provides a much better explanation for why 3 of the greatest knights in the realm sit in the booneys for the entirety of a war that overthrew their monarchy...

And we know Rhaegar isn't above getting married then having two kids all inside of two years... Since that's what he did with Elia.

 

 

If you really want a timeline question, when was the Tourney at Harrenhall?

Because the world book says that the false spring only lasted two turns at the end of the year... But that wold have made Elia, who was in attendance, really pregnant... Since Aegon was born before the end of the year. 

So besides that it seems at the very least highly irresponsible to be traveling with a woman so pregnant... Especially one who needed six months of bed rest after the last kid... It also means Rhaegar rode by his, at least 7 month pregnant, wife to crown Lyanna... Dick...

[anotherstagbastard]

When I first read of Danys birth and the way the storm tore the rocks from the walls, I thought of Ned and taking down the TOJ. Like you I believe R+L=J&D

[RedShirt47]

It's pretty futile to try and narrow down the dates of these events. GRRM has deliberately left the timeline vague. Only when forced into addressing a question about the books apparently showing Dany being a full year younger than Jon as her 14th birthday happens after Jon's 15th in the books, did GRRM try to clarify it a bit by saying itwasn't a full year. He did this probably off the top of his head without notes etc. This is the type of discussion and question why he hates giving specific dates to events because then he has to justify every event around the same time which might be impossible.  GRRM has said that his chapters are not in chronological order (when comparing Dany's chapters to Jon's or Tyrion's to Arya's). We can sync up many events and timelines when they intersect with each other. But Dany's wedding might have been weeks or months before Robert and Cersei visited Winterfell, just because these were chapters were close together in the books doesn't mean it's the exact same time.

The best we can do is a rough estimate of when events happened. We can't base any theories on these dates as they are not specific enough.

[corbon]

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Some nice points here, but let me try and explain what I'm having trouble with a little better...

Umm, not sure that worked very well, but I'll try.

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Also, the GRRM quote is closer to 8-9 months than a year, which while certainly vague does provide some basis for speculation...

If Lyanna and Rhaella died in childbirth roughly 9 months apart... The conceptions should be roughly 9 months apart too...

With you so far.

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Rhaegar had to be there for Lyanna getting pregnant right? And we assume he at least knew she was pregnant before he left (thus the kingsguard) right? (Unless there was already a baby!)

Rhaegar was present for the burning of Chelstead (which was the night Rhaella got pregnant). It also likely prompted him to tell Jaime that there would be changes when he returns from war... 

Well thats not clear. Rossart was Hand for 2 weeks - from Chelsted's burning to the Sack. Its dubious that Rhaegar could march his army from KL to the Trident, then have the battle of the BotTrident, then have Ned bring the Vanguard to KL all in two weeks. Given GRRMs issues with times and distances, and years apart in which the various details were actually written, I think that the most likely solution is that GRRM forgot that Darry must have already left with the army before that night and has effectively written Darry into being in two places at once. Note also that Rhaella and Viserys leave fairly soon after this - Rhaella maids are still talking about her injuries from some beast (Aerys), for Dragonstone, which is triggered by news of the defeat at the Trident. 

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Then it seems like in almost no time at all there is the battle of the Trident, Rhaegar dies, Rhaella flees with Viserys, and the Sack of Kings Landing.

Yes, all these things happen very quickly, but thats to be expected.

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Keep in mind, these events are all in 283AC after the Battle of the Bells...

Also, in 283AC Ned marries Cat and gets her pregnant...  Let's just pretend the battle, wedding, and conception were all on day one of the year...

So forgetting travel time for Ned or armies... After 283 starts... And no time passes between then, going to river run, getting married, getting Cat pregnant, and hanging out for two weeks. So still counting from day one of 283 we are looking at nine months before Rob is born.

If Rob is older than Jon (big if) then the ToJ showdown was in the last three months of the year...

Ok now bring in the third baby... Dany finds she is pregnant on her 14th birthday, no not that baby... This helps us place Dany's birthday.

Ned discusses it after the Tourney of the Hand (at least six months into the year) and she is still 14 when she sees the comet the next year... So her birthday is in the first half of the year... Or thereabouts

If the showdown at the ToJ has to be in the last three months of the year, and nine months later Stormborn is in the first six months... (Because if we include time for things like travel and weddings it simply isn't possible)

Then looks like there isn't much wiggle room there. Count backwards to when Jon would be conceived and its day one of the year... Again not much time for Rob to be conceived first.

but hell, let's say it's a matter of a day or a few minutes... Or just there are timeline problems...

Well we know there are timeline problems. GRRM has said, (paraphrasing) "don't look to closely and times and distances because I wasn't very careful about them..."

I think it simplifies if you take the 'dates' out of it. Generally speaking they've been added in much later and I think thats the problem - they don't necessarily fit with what was written much earlier.

We know the war lasted 'about a year'. We know that things happened in a rush at the start - Robert is in the Vale, fights a battle there to claim a port, rushes back to SE, fights some small internal battles, then consolidates internally, then heads toward the Reach and loses to Mace Tyrell and retreats north. Mace head to SE and starts  a year long siege there. JonCon chases Robert down at Stoney Sept but Ned, John Arryn and Hoster Tully beat off JonCon and afterward Ned gets married, impregnates Catelyn and then leaves her side for a year.
All of that seems to fit right within about 3-4 months after the war starts.

Then we have a big nothing for quite a while. The rebels are consolidating in the Riverlands and probably still waiting for the bulk of their forces to arrive. No doubt their are skirmishes, loyalist holdouts to be eliminated or turned, etc. The Westlands have not declared for either side yet, making it strategically difficult for the rebels to leave the riverlands. The loyalists are rebuilding their army, looking for Rhaegar, and sieging SE.
Some time during this quiet period Hightower finds Rhaegar and Rhaegar returns to KL.

We are now at 11-12 months into the war. Rhaegar marches out of KL to the Trident. Aerys burns Chelsted, either before or after Rhaegar leaves, but in this period. Rhaegar loses at the Trident and dies, Aerys sends away Rhaella and Viserys, the Sack happens.Ned and Robert fall out over the Targ kiddies and Ned rides for SE and points south.

The war is now over (about a year). During the next month or so Ned accepts the Tyrell submission at SE (siege lasts nearly a year, probably a bit less), Jon is born, and ToJ happens.

7-8 months later Dany is born.

There are no major logistical problems here other than perhaps some people or armies moving a little bit faster than we would expect them too - but GRRM admits this is a flaw of his)

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It still doesn't explain why nearly half the Kingsguard remain at the Tower of Joy... Even if they knew Lyanna was pregnant they wouldn't know it was a boy...

You can try and explain this by following orders and just waiting to see what the kid is going to be... 

But in the middle of a war I find it hard to believe these heroes of the monarchy sit on their hands at some tower in the south on a hunch or some dead prince's order...

Bear in mind that up until the BotBells no one really took the rebellion as a  serious threat. Then after BoBells the plan was to get Rhaegar back to sort it out, but Rhaegar is clearly confident of winning without the 3 missing KG. Up until the Trident its all 'under control'. Rhaegar is back, in charge and confident (there will be changes when I return), the Dornish contingent has arrived, KL is still secure, the loyalist army is bigger than the rebel army and that doesn't include the Tyrell army at SE, or Tywin's non-rebel army. There simply isn't any need for the missing 3 KG. If Rhaegar wants them at ToJ, no problem.
Then it all goes pear-shaped extremely fast, much faster than anyone expected and Rhaegar, who almost certainly controlled knowledge of their whereabouts, is gone.
But until the KG at the ToJ get news, they don;t know of any of this. As far as they know Rhaegar is in control and doesn't need them anywhere but where they are.

Once they get the news, its too late to do anything about it. Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon are dead. The KG have new priorities, a new King, somewhere, who isn't being protected. That King is either Viserys or someone ahead of Viserys. At that stage, Lyanna's child is either very very close to being born or already born, and based on the interregnum situation in real life, if Lyanna and Ra=haegar married, Viserys is not yet their rightful King. So they don't go to him.

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but I'll be the first to admit the whole timeline is murky at best... Still, it is way easier to fit Lyanna getting pregnant twice, than it is to make this classic one work (even with teleportation).

Its not way easier, its impossible. There is not 18 months between Lyanna going missing and dying and there is no hint or evidence she was pregnant before she went missing, nor that Rhaegar had any contact with her between Harrenhal and the abduction. There is also no extra baby to sort out.

 

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but I'll be the first to admit the whole timeline is murky at best... Still, it is way easier to fit Lyanna getting pregnant twice, than it is to make this classic one work (even with teleportation).

It also provides a much better explanation for why 3 of the greatest knights in the realm sit in the booneys for the entirety of a war that overthrew their monarchy...

I can't see any explanation there at all?

On 24/03/2016 at 9:46 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And we know Rhaegar isn't above getting married then having two kids all inside of two years... Since that's what he did with Elia.

If you really want a timeline question, when was the Tourney at Harrenhall?

Because the world book says that the false spring only lasted two turns at the end of the year... But that wold have made Elia, who was in attendance, really pregnant... Since Aegon was born before the end of the year. 

So besides that it seems at the very least highly irresponsible to be traveling with a woman so pregnant... Especially one who needed six months of bed rest after the last kid... It also means Rhaegar rode by his, at least 7 month pregnant, wife to crown Lyanna... Dick...

Well the older sources (still GRRM) indicated about a year before the Rebellion. That fitted quite well with Aegon not yet being born then (perhaps Elia being in early stages of pregnancy or just recovered enough from Rhaenys' birth to travel and not yet conceived Aegon) and Aegon being about a year old (which would cover about 10-18 months of age) when he died at the end of the rebellion. You then have Harrenhal, 9-12 months later Aegon is born and Dany's vision is placed, then Rhaegar leaves, Lyanna is kidnapped, the fallout happens and the war begins. It all worked fairly well, including things like Jaime's age.

But the added details later are all of a mess. Nothing works out quite right and lots of things appear to be squeezed here or there because they are pinned by this event/date one way and that event/date another way. We were much better off without that level of detail IMO. Which funnily enough, is exactly what GRRM said would happen!.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

On March 25, 2016 at 0:21 PM, corbon said:

 

1.Well we know there are timeline problems. GRRM has said, (paraphrasing) "don't look to closely and times and distances because I wasn't very careful about them..."

...
2. But until the KG at the ToJ get news, they don;t know of any of this. As far as they know Rhaegar is in control and doesn't need them anywhere but where they are.

...

3. Its not way easier, its impossible. There is not 18 months between Lyanna going missing and dying and there is no hint or evidence she was pregnant before she went missing, nor that Rhaegar had any contact with her between Harrenhal and the abduction. There is also no extra baby to sort out.

1. Yes, I've had to admit that looking closely at the timeline is a recipe for disaster...

2. It is incredibly unclear to me what these men at the ToJ knew, and when they knew it... I guess it could be as simple as Rheagar told them to stay so they just did... But like I said, this doesn't sit right with me

3. There is clearly enough time for Lyanna to get pregnant twice, however you cut the timeline... We don't know exactly when she disappeared, but very early in 282... And the ToJ showdown was at the end of 283... Elia (with Rheagar) had two kids in almost the same timeline... And that is waiting for Lyanna to get pregnant until after she disappears... If she ran away because she was already pregnant then there is even more time.

As for when the Tourney of Harrenhall was, I still don't know when to place it in 281... As you say some of the details seem to conflict... the false spring was only two turns at the end of the year... But Elia would have been really pregnant then... So I don't know how anyone can be so sure about this unless I missed something.

And sorry if I was unclear, the extra baby is Dany... Everything makes so much more sense and works better if she is a Stark and Targ... Also, Jon's little sister...

but that's a whole other discussion