Stannis's role in the death of King Robert Baratheon

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Richard III didn't take anyone hostage. He was legally and officially appointed their guardian and Protector of the Realm by his brother, Edward IV, for whom he had been the undisputed second in command for many years. 

After the Woodevilles tried to hide the fact that his brother had died and rush to crown a child King/pawn, sidestepping Richard's legal authority...whereupon he would certainly have been in mortal peril had they succeeded...he (justifiably or not) used the process of law to have their claim declared invalid (as bastards) and was crowned by Parliament. He may or may not have had them killed thereafter...great unknown, I personally think him capable of it but have real doubts he would go about it as this was done, and there are many with motive and means...but by then he already had the crown and everyone but their controllers greatly feared being ruled by a child...it had an almost universal record of abject disaster. 

I think in similar fashion Renly would have been morally fine with killing Joff, but for pragmatic reasons would probably have preferred to merely disinherit him...NW as most politically expedient solution. What I can't see him doing, for the same reasons I doubt Richard III's direct guilt...is killing the kids but keeping their deaths secret. Especially as rumours circulate. That's paying for the ticket but not getting the ride. The whole point of killing disinherited monarchs is to prevent them serving as figureheads for rebellion, which you don't do if you keep their deaths a secret. Much better to kill them and make it look natural...usually via starvation or smothering...or accidental, kill them and openly blame a rival, or not kill them at all.

Being Lord Protector didn't mean the same thing back in Yorkist England than it (may) mean in Westeros. Lord Protector doesn't make you the sole regent at this time, and after the coronation of Edward V the Lord Protector would have been dismissed and there would have been a proper regency government set up of the same type England had had during the (long) minority of Henry VI.

But that wouldn't have lasted all that long considering Edward V's age, and Henry VI being able to actually declare himself when he was fit to take the government on the kingdom in his own hands.

And as I've brought up once already here the English Parliament had never the right to assess the existence or validity of a marriage or a precontract. Those were churchly matters, and subsequently Richard would actually have been forced to go to the Pope to declare the marriage of his brother the late king posthumously invalid.

I'm pretty sure Richard III is also guilty of murdering his nephews. He controlled access to them, and he never punished anyone for the crime (which he could have done easily because he had Buckingham and others executed not long thereafter). If you go back to the deposition and murder of Richard II and the usurpation of Henry IV you'll find that actually murdering a king and publicly presenting his corpse doesn't necessarily help you convince your subjects in a medieval setting (where people scarcely travel and news travel via rumors) that this is really so. Therefore Richard III might have thought it best to never comment on the fate of the princes at all. That made it more difficult for both impostors, people trying to free them, and his own public image (he was not seen as the murderer of his young royal nephews). It didn't help all that much, but then - this guy was doomed from the start. You don't ascend a throne over the corpses of your nephews and enjoy a happy reign. At least not in Renaissance times.

Renly isn't a nice guy. He smiles, he japes, but he has no problems murdering or killing people. And he despises both Joffrey and Cersei. He has no reason to want to spare their lives, and sparing it would be dangerous. Just as Richard III's bastard-solution wasn't exactly bulletproof, sparing the lives of Cersei and her children would be risky, too.

If Renly's plan with Ned had succeeded I think they would have followed Littlefinger's suggestion. They would have ruled in Joff's name until they had dealt with Stannis and Tywin, either killing them or breaking their power. With Renly conveniently only having Joff, Tommen, and (possibly) Myrcella between him and the throne they would then have murdered them. Either via an accident or starvation/murder behind closed doors. By that time Renly and Littlefinger would also have had dealt with Ned - either by convincing him to step down, murdering him, too, or recruiting them to their cause.

And who knows what Renly actually planned that night. He offered Ned a hundred swords - would those swords have been used in the securing of Maegor's Holdfast? If so, is anyone willing to wager money that none of Renly's swords would have harmed either Cersei or her children during that attack? We can presume that Cersei's men-at-arms and the Kingsguard would have tried to protect the royal family, so it would have been rather easy to kill them all of them all and present it as an accident.

The Wall is a very bad idea to get rid of princes in the age of twelve and seven/eight, by the way. The Faith would be a better option, but neither of that would work as long as Tywin Lannister still controlled the West. The man would rise to defend the rights of his grandchildren - something he couldn't do all that easily if all of them were dead...

[Marcus Agrippa]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Being Lord Protector didn't mean the same thing back in Yorkist England than it (may) mean in Westeros. Lord Protector doesn't make you the sole regent at this time, and after the coronation of Edward V the Lord Protector would have been dismissed and there would have been a proper regency government set up of the same type England had had during the (long) minority of Henry VI.

But that wouldn't have lasted all that long considering Edward V's age, and Henry VI being able to actually declare himself when he was fit to take the government on the kingdom in his own hands.

And as I've brought up once already here the English Parliament had never the right to assess the existence or validity of a marriage or a precontract. Those were churchly matters, and subsequently Richard would actually have been forced to go to the Pope to declare the marriage of his brother the late king posthumously invalid.

I'm pretty sure Richard III is also guilty of murdering his nephews. He controlled access to them, and he never punished anyone for the crime (which he could have done easily because he had Buckingham and others executed not long thereafter). If you go back to the deposition and murder of Richard II and the usurpation of Henry IV you'll find that actually murdering a king and publicly presenting his corpse doesn't necessarily help you convince your subjects in a medieval setting (where people scarcely travel and news travel via rumors) that this is really so. Therefore Richard III might have thought it best to never comment on the fate of the princes at all. That made it more difficult for both impostors, people trying to free them, and his own public image (he was not seen as the murderer of his young royal nephews). It didn't help all that much, but then - this guy was doomed from the start. You don't ascend a throne over the corpses of your nephews and enjoy a happy reign. At least not in Renaissance times.

Renly isn't a nice guy. He smiles, he japes, but he has no problems murdering or killing people. And he despises both Joffrey and Cersei. He has no reason to want to spare their lives, and sparing it would be dangerous. Just as Richard III's bastard-solution wasn't exactly bulletproof, sparing the lives of Cersei and her children would be risky, too.

If Renly's plan with Ned had succeeded I think they would have followed Littlefinger's suggestion. They would have ruled in Joff's name until they had dealt with Stannis and Tywin, either killing them or breaking their power. With Renly conveniently only having Joff, Tommen, and (possibly) Myrcella between him and the throne they would then have murdered them. Either via an accident or starvation/murder behind closed doors. By that time Renly and Littlefinger would also have had dealt with Ned - either by convincing him to step down, murdering him, too, or recruiting them to their cause.

And who knows what Renly actually planned that night. He offered Ned a hundred swords - would those swords have been used in the securing of Maegor's Holdfast? If so, is anyone willing to wager money that none of Renly's swords would have harmed either Cersei or her children during that attack? We can presume that Cersei's men-at-arms and the Kingsguard would have tried to protect the royal family, so it would have been rather easy to kill them all of them all and present it as an accident.

The Wall is a very bad idea to get rid of princes in the age of twelve and seven/eight, by the way. The Faith would be a better option, but neither of that would work as long as Tywin Lannister still controlled the West. The man would rise to defend the rights of his grandchildren - something he couldn't do all that easily if all of them were dead...

Renly's move was dumb, and even ned knew that. Ned was aiming to attempt in avoiding another civil war. That beinging said, I think his best move would have been to head east to dragon stone. Stannis has the royal navy, Ned and Stannis could have planned their moves accordingly.

[Sullen]

8 minutes ago, Marcus Agrippa said:

Renly's move was dumb, and even ned knew that. Ned was aiming to attempt in avoiding another civil war. That beinging said, I think his best move would have been to head east to dragon stone. Stannis has the royal navy, Ned and Stannis could have planned their moves accordingly.

Ned was not attempting to avoid a civil war, he knew very well he was causing one, mate, by his own words.

Renly's move was the smartest one available considering the circumstances.

[Marcus Agrippa]

2 hours ago, Sullen said:

Ned was not attempting to avoid a civil war, he knew very well he was causing one, mate, by his own words.

Renly's move was the smartest one available considering the circumstances.

I am going to have to reread the first book, but I thought the motives for him to seize the throne like he did was to keep blood shed to mininium. Tywin was still going to rebel, but it could have been isolated. Also, I am not sure if he trusted renly because of the tyrells as lord varys said.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

13 minutes ago, Marcus Agrippa said:

I am going to have to reread the first book, but I thought the motives for him to seize the throne like he did was to keep blood shed to mininium. Tywin was still going to rebel, but it could have been isolated. Also, I am not sure if he trusted renly because of the tyrells as lord varys said.

No he was told exactly what would have happened should he made Stannis King, that Tywin, Balon and the Reach Lords would rebel.

"Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

War and the suffering or (hundreds of) thousands of peasants is just an unfortunate consequence of satisfying Ned's honor.

 

"So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

Unless of course Sansa is put at risk in which case he will abandon his claims.

[Marcus Agrippa]

8 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

No he was told exactly what would have happened should he made Stannis King, that Tywin, Balon and the Reach Lords would rebel.

"Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

War and the suffering or (hundreds of) thousands of peasants is just an unfortunate consequence of satisfying Ned's honor.

 

"So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

Unless of course Sansa is put at risk in which case he will abandon his claims.

It's been a while. I should feel ashamed I forgot that speech because it was amazing, but honestly this series is on hold currently as I engage in the star wars literature. Anyway, his best move would hae been going to dragon stone then and heading north with Stannis. Hell, book a marriage to rob or rickon.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

21 minutes ago, Marcus Agrippa said:

It's been a while. I should feel ashamed I forgot that speech because it was amazing, but honestly this series is on hold currently as I engage in the star wars literature. Anyway, his best move would hae been going to dragon stone then and heading north with Stannis. Hell, book a marriage to rob or rickon.

I think the only way to avoid war was to call a Grand Council (Cat was correct on this). A royal or even military coup was never going to be accepted. Ned should have probably sent a raven to Stannis, got his daughters home and retreat to either Riverrun or White Harbor.

Let the Lords decide who has the best claim and if the evidence is good enough against Cersei and her children.

[Lord_Ravenstone]

38 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

No he was told exactly what would have happened should he made Stannis King, that Tywin, Balon and the Reach Lords would rebel.

"Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

War and the suffering or (hundreds of) thousands of peasants is just an unfortunate consequence of satisfying Ned's honor.

 

"So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

Unless of course Sansa is put at risk in which case he will abandon his claims.

Littlefinger has pretty suspect motives as Stannis as King would hurt him 

[Lord_Ravenstone]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Being Lord Protector didn't mean the same thing back in Yorkist England than it (may) mean in Westeros. Lord Protector doesn't make you the sole regent at this time, and after the coronation of Edward V the Lord Protector would have been dismissed and there would have been a proper regency government set up of the same type England had had during the (long) minority of Henry VI.

But that wouldn't have lasted all that long considering Edward V's age, and Henry VI being able to actually declare himself when he was fit to take the government on the kingdom in his own hands.

And as I've brought up once already here the English Parliament had never the right to assess the existence or validity of a marriage or a precontract. Those were churchly matters, and subsequently Richard would actually have been forced to go to the Pope to declare the marriage of his brother the late king posthumously invalid.

I'm pretty sure Richard III is also guilty of murdering his nephews. He controlled access to them, and he never punished anyone for the crime (which he could have done easily because he had Buckingham and others executed not long thereafter). If you go back to the deposition and murder of Richard II and the usurpation of Henry IV you'll find that actually murdering a king and publicly presenting his corpse doesn't necessarily help you convince your subjects in a medieval setting (where people scarcely travel and news travel via rumors) that this is really so. Therefore Richard III might have thought it best to never comment on the fate of the princes at all. That made it more difficult for both impostors, people trying to free them, and his own public image (he was not seen as the murderer of his young royal nephews). It didn't help all that much, but then - this guy was doomed from the start. You don't ascend a throne over the corpses of your nephews and enjoy a happy reign. At least not in Renaissance times.

Renly isn't a nice guy. He smiles, he japes, but he has no problems murdering or killing people. And he despises both Joffrey and Cersei. He has no reason to want to spare their lives, and sparing it would be dangerous. Just as Richard III's bastard-solution wasn't exactly bulletproof, sparing the lives of Cersei and her children would be risky, too.

If Renly's plan with Ned had succeeded I think they would have followed Littlefinger's suggestion. They would have ruled in Joff's name until they had dealt with Stannis and Tywin, either killing them or breaking their power. With Renly conveniently only having Joff, Tommen, and (possibly) Myrcella between him and the throne they would then have murdered them. Either via an accident or starvation/murder behind closed doors. By that time Renly and Littlefinger would also have had dealt with Ned - either by convincing him to step down, murdering him, too, or recruiting them to their cause.

And who knows what Renly actually planned that night. He offered Ned a hundred swords - would those swords have been used in the securing of Maegor's Holdfast? If so, is anyone willing to wager money that none of Renly's swords would have harmed either Cersei or her children during that attack? We can presume that Cersei's men-at-arms and the Kingsguard would have tried to protect the royal family, so it would have been rather easy to kill them all of them all and present it as an accident.

The Wall is a very bad idea to get rid of princes in the age of twelve and seven/eight, by the way. The Faith would be a better option, but neither of that would work as long as Tywin Lannister still controlled the West. The man would rise to defend the rights of his grandchildren - something he couldn't do all that easily if all of them were dead...

I just wanna take this post to note that GRRM is actually a Ricardian and doesn't think it was Richard III who had them killed 

but I agree with you

[Marcus Agrippa]

3 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I think the only way to avoid war was to call a Grand Council (Cat was correct on this). A royal or even military coup was never going to be accepted. Ned should have probably sent a raven to Stannis, got his daughters home and retreat to either Riverrun or White Harbor.

Let the Lords decide who has the best claim and if the evidence is good enough against Cersei and her children.

100 percent true, but ned choose not to listen. WHite harbor would have been better, since the road to riverrun went through the west.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Just now, Lord_Ravenstone said:

Littlefinger has pretty suspect motives as Stannis as King would hurt him 

That is a pretty long speech by Littlefinger and all of it holds up.

Not that it is the point, Ned hears what Littlefinger had to say and does not deny any of it just accepts that war is an unfortunate consequence of satisfying his honor by crowning Stannis.

Ned when told that the realm will bleed accepts this as an outcome.

[The Drunkard]

Balon and the Tyrells rebelled against Joffrey, so even if they would rebel against Stannis the situation is no different. Aside from having a better king on the throne.

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

There were many players with their own different ambitions after Robert's death. There wasn't really a  way to avoid war, nor would the relevant players accept a grand council. Relevant players would be Renly and the Tyrells, Stannis, Cersei, Joffrey, Tywin, Ned, Littlefinger, Varys, hell at that point even Janos Slynt had some influence. Also the Ironborn were opportunistic and could take advantage of the situation.

[Sullen]

10 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Balon and the Tyrells rebelled against Joffrey, so even if they would rebel against Stannis the situation is no different. Aside from having a better king on the throne.

Tyrell rebelled against Joffrey along with Renly after Eddard was fucked up by the Lannisters, that obviously doesn't happen with Renly's plan, and arguably with Littlefinger's plan as well, considering that Cersei and all sort of influence Renly sensed as dangerous to himself has been ousted from King's Landing.

Balon only rebels because the Realm is fragmented, which isn't as much the case if Eddard goes with either Renly or Littlefinger.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Tyrell rebelled against Joffrey along with Renly after Eddard was fucked up by the Lannisters, that obviously doesn't happen with Renly's plan, and arguably with Littlefinger's plan as well, considering that Cersei and all sort of influence Renly sensed as dangerous to himself has been ousted from King's Landing.

Balon only rebels because the Realm is fragmented, which isn't as much the case if Eddard goes with either Renly or Littlefinger.

In that scenario Tywin and Stannis would both rebel. There would be war in either scenario - Littlefinger isn't necessarily against war, he is just against a scenario in which Stannis wages a war while sitting on the Iron Throne. That is his main problem.

[Sullen]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In that scenario Tywin and Stannis would both rebel. There would be war in either scenario - Littlefinger isn't necessarily against war, he is just against a scenario in which Stannis wages a war while sitting on the Iron Throne. That is his main problem.

Tywin won't rebel as long as Joffrey is still on the Throne.

Stannis would rebel, obviously, but war against Stannis alone is no big deal, his measly 4k troops is inconsequential.

Littlefinger isn't going to support war when peace gives him more power, as it would do it this situation.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Tywin won't rebel as long as Joffrey is still on the Throne.

Stannis would rebel, obviously, but war against Stannis alone is no big deal, his measly 4k troops is inconsequential.

Littlefinger isn't going to support war when peace gives him more power, as it would do it this situation.

Tywin would want the Regency and Handship for himself. And he would not look kindly on this 'regency regime' actually taking the Queen Dowager, his own daughter, the king, and his siblings hostages. That was what Renly suggested, after all.

Littlefinger urged Ned to support Joff's ascension for the time being (until they had dealt with Stannis) but it is difficult to imagine that Cersei would have believed in Ned's sudden change of heart (him supporting her and Joffrey) which means that Ned would essentially have been forced to do something along the lines Renly suggested earlier - seize the power at court, and take the new king and his family under his 'protection'.

Tywin wouldn't accept that, especially not in light of the fact that he was just warring with the Tullys on behalf of Tyrion anyway. He had two armies in the field already, and could easily use them to pressure Ned into stepping down as Lord Regent and Hand and offering those positions to him.

[Sullen]

Just now, Lord Varys said:

Tywin would want the Regency and Handship for himself. And he would not look kindly on this 'regency regime' actually taking the Queen Dowager, his own daughter, the king, and his siblings hostages. That was what Renly suggested, after all.

He would not look kindly on that, no, but Stannis is not going to rise up against the Throne, especially when his daughter and grandchildren are essentially hostages. If he tries to grab the regency, it'll be by intrigue, not by going to war.

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger urged Ned to support Joff's ascension for the time being (until they had dealt with Stannis) but it is difficult to imagine that Cersei would have believed in Ned's sudden change of heart (him supporting her and Joffrey) which means that Ned would essentially have been forced to do something along the lines Renly suggested earlier - seize the power at court, and take the new king and his family under his 'protection'.

The whole thing about dealing with Stannis is only in the case that Joffrey proves too unruly to control and ends up being dangerous, it's not Littlefinger's first plan. And yes, Littlefinger essentially wanted to seize power at court through force just like Renly wanted, they had essentially the same plan after all, the only difference is that Littlefinger has a contingency plan should Joff be worth too much trouble.

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin wouldn't accept that, especially not in light of the fact that he was just warring with the Tullys on behalf of Tyrion anyway. He had two armies in the field already, and could easily use them to pressure Ned into stepping down as Lord Regent and Hand and offering those positions to him.

Tywin isn't going to go to war with the combined might of the Iron Throne, he's a man that likes to play it as safe as possible.

If Eddard successfully installs himself as regent, then he has Renly's backing, if he has Renly's backing, then the Tyrells follow, if the Tyrells follow, then Tywin is severely fucked by a single giant enemy on all sides, which might even lead Balon to smell blood in the water.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Sullen said:

He would not look kindly on that, no, but Stannis is not going to rise up against the Throne, especially when his daughter and grandchildren are essentially hostages. If he tries to grab the regency, it'll be by intrigue, not by going to war.

The whole thing about dealing with Stannis is only in the case that Joffrey proves too unruly to control and ends up being dangerous, it's not Littlefinger's first plan. And yes, Littlefinger essentially wanted to seize power at court through force just like Renly wanted, they had essentially the same plan after all, the only difference is that Littlefinger has a contingency plan should Joff be worth too much trouble.

Tywin isn't going to go to war with the combined might of the Iron Throne, he's a man that likes to play it as safe as possible.

If Eddard successfully installs himself as regent, then he has Renly's backing, if he has Renly's backing, then the Tyrells follow, if the Tyrells follow, then Tywin is severely fucked by a single giant enemy on all sides, which might even lead Balon to smell blood in the water.

Well, if Ned has himself set up as Lord Regent of King Joffrey I Baratheon he cannot really treat him, Cersei, and his siblings as hostages. That would look very bad in the eyes of the public and directly play in Tywin's hands.

In addition, there is the problem that Tywin already had an army in the field - and with Ned not being incarcerated Robb wouldn't call the banners - an army, he could certainly bring to KL the same way Mace Tyrell brought his armies to the capital after Margaery was arrested.

And that would then mark the end of Eddard Stark's short regency. The Tyrells would most likely come too late to protect Ned from that.

You are confused about Littlefinger's plan. Littlefinger suggested Ned to support Joffrey's rise to the throne and marry Sansa to him and Myrcella to Robb. During the Regency they would then deal with Stannis, and subsequently they would eventually rid themselves of Joffrey and his siblings by revealing their true heritage. The endgame in both Renly's and Littlefinger's plan is to eventually seat Renly on the Iron Throne. Littlefinger's phrases his plan as a hypothetical scenario but it is quite obvious that Joff would prove to be too much trouble. After all, the fact that he later conspired to murder Joff proves that this was on his mind for quite some time. He sells Sansa the idea that he had no motive - but he did, Joffrey was a hothead with a temper and not particularly bright. As an adult it would difficult and dangerous to try to manipulate him, and assuming that Littlefinger is actually after the throne himself (at least in the sense that he wants to directly control it) then having a puppet boy king for the next eight years (Tommen) is a much better option than Joffrey who would have been a man grown in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Sullen]

Just now, Lord Varys said:

Well, if Ned has himself set up as Lord Regent of King Joffrey I Baratheon he cannot really treat him, Cersei, and his siblings as hostages. That would look very bad in the eyes of the public and directly play in Tywin's hands.

They would be hostages in everything but name, just like Theon.

If Eddard was legally named Regent (and he was) and Eddard acts before Cersei, then there is little she can do.

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, there is the problem that Tywin already had an army in the field - and with Ned not being incarcerated Robb wouldn't call the banners - an army, he could certainly bring to KL the same way Mace Tyrell brought his armies to the capital after Margaery was arrested.

Tywin is currently occupied in the Westerlands, and both the Tyrells and the Baratheon forces have the time to be mobilized.

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And that would then mark the end of Eddard Stark's short regency. The Tyrells would most likely come too late to protect Ned from that.

As I said, Tywin is tied up in the Riverlands, and the host he'll potentially move South won't be enough to take the city, not to mention that Cersei and her children are currently hostages. Tyrell and Renly both have time to act, as potentially can a freed Edmure.

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are confused about Littlefinger's plan. Littlefinger suggested Ned to support Joffrey's rise to the throne and marry Sansa to him and Myrcella to Robb. 

Yes, but he still suggests hiring the Goldcloaks to ensure all power goes to him smoothly. He seizes power through force, as Renly was suggesting.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

During the Regency they would then deal with Stannis, and subsequently they would eventually rid themselves of Joffrey and his siblings by revealing their true heritage

Only if Joffrey is unruly.

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The endgame in both Renly's and Littlefinger's plan is to eventually seat Renly on the Iron Throne.

Renly doesn't want the Throne in his own endgame, he simply wants Eddard to be in charge of Joffrey (and to influence Eddard in return, obviously).

Littlefinger only suggests Renly as a possibility, not as his endgame.

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger's phrases his plan as a hypothetical scenario but it is quite obvious that Joff would prove to be too much trouble.

Not necessarily, Joffrey's rotten behaviour mostly comes from having his mother coddle him and not having any authority figure whatsoever, which wouldn't be the case in the situation where Eddard installs himself as regent.

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

After all, the fact that he later conspired to murder Joff proves that this was on his mind for quite some time.

On the contrary, the fact that he waits for the Tyrells to do it shows that it's simply an opportunity to stir shit up that he jumped on as soon as he noticed that someone else had a reason to want Joffrey dead.

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He sells Sansa the idea that he had no motive - but he did, Joffrey was a hothead with a temper and not particularly bright. As an adult it would difficult and dangerous to try to manipulate him, and assuming that Littlefinger is actually after the throne himself (at least in the sense that he wants to directly control it) then having a puppet boy king for the next eight years (Tommen) is a much better option than Joffrey who would have been a man grown in the next 2-3 years.

Except that Littlefinger's explanation perfectly fits his M.O, he rolls the dice (stirs shit up) and reacts accordingly, the assassination of Joff is essentially the Dagger Plot 2.0. Joffrey is also extremely influenceable, in the context where he has more discipline (as would be the case with Eddard as regent) he could very well have made a very passable puppet king.

Tommen is more malleable though, I agree, but I don't think Littlefinger has any specific endgoal, he simply wants as much power as possible, his plans are too chaotic to have a single target in mind.