How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

[thelittledragonthatcould]

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Blount gave up Tommen without a fight. Look at what Tywin did to the innkeeper who let armed men take Tyrion. Martin shows us exactly what Tywin does to those who threaten the lives of Lannisters--even ones he hates. But we're supposed to believe Tywin would be cool with Blount protecting Joffrey and Tommen, Tywin's ruling Lannister puppets and his legacy?

So why keep him around at all. He now has cause to publicly kill him or he could have done it secretly and few would have cared.

What reason do you think he reinstated him?

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

There's a big difference between Barristan the Bold and Boros "I gave up the heir to the throne without a fight" Blount. 

And there is a further difference between Blount, long standing member of the Kingsguard sand the likes of the Hound and Kettleblack.

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

In that quote, it sounds like Jaime was the one that actually impressed Bran.

He was impressed with all three of them and their reputation just like most of Westeros would. Whether you are great or not the general public still believe that there is some prestige in being a member of that order.

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

And Ned doesn't think negatively of a number of people. But Bran does remember Ned's saying that the kingsguard is no longer what it used to be. No longer the greatest.

Yup due to Jaime Lannister who killed his King.

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

The key point would be what does Tywin think of Blount.

He obviously thinks very little of him as he makes no mention of him.

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Oh, no--my apologies for not being clear. I did not mean to imply that I think Blount is blackmailing Tywin. I think Tywin keeps the man around because he knows Blount is willing to do things for him and keep his mouth shut.

Isn't he just as likely to get rid of him? Permanently.

What use could he have been to Tywin once he was Hand and the war won?

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Like Tywin keeps the horror that is the Mountain around even after what he did to Elia and the Targ children. Why he keeps Amory Lorch around.

Why would he not keep either of them around? Robert or Jon did not want to punish them, why would Tywin do so?

Gregor Clegane was one of the greatest knights in the kingdom and utterly loyal to Tywin. There was no reason to get rid of him.

After the Blackwater what purpose do you think Blount had?

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

But Tywin would sell both of them out if necessary--he insists to Tyrion that Lorch killed Rhaenys to impress Robert and thus it's not Tywin's responsibility.

No he does not, he says that is what he will say to Oberyn and that Tyrion should say it as well.

Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. "The blood was in him."

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

 

And that he will tell Oberyn this and since Lorch died horribly, that should get the onus off of Tywin.

Sure, I'm not really seeing how this relates to Blount?

49 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

But then Tywin says he will not give up Gregor Clegane to Oberyn because he's too useful:

Which he is. Blount is not. Not as a warrior, not as a guard, not as a tactician and not even as a spy since Tywin is now in charge.

Blount has zero uses to Tywin outside of his name and the fact that Robert made him a Kingsguard.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Tywin will give up Lorch as "guilty" to Oberyn because that "beast" is already dead. But he won't give up a very useful living beast when he doesn't have to. 

Exactly. Clegane is one of the greatest warriors in the land, loyal to a fault and a good general in the field for Tywin. What does Blount offer?

 

[RoamingRonin]

 

4 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

He was about to invade the city when Barristan mucked it up by saving Aerys.

At that point, he needed another way to get Aerys dead, Rhaegar king, and himself plausible deniability so that he could be Hand without too much fuss.

He one prime opportunity right in front of him. He was Hand of the King. He could have easily dismissed Barristan's protestations and attacked. He might not get another chance like this ever again. Why waste it because Ser Barristan is fussing? 

In fact, Lord Denys said he would kill Aerys if it looked like Tywin was about to attack. All Tywin had to do was pretend to make a mistake by re-arranging his men in a formation that suggested an attack.

2 hours ago, DarkSister1001 said:

I think Barristan robbed him of that.  Tywin set Barristan up for failure and Barristan succeeded.  He gave him very little time to get Aerys out alive but had to appear to be doing something to save him.  

Tywin giving Barristan a chance to save Aerys is damning evidence against this theory. It shows Tywin actually wants to succeed. Why give anyone the chance to save Aerys if he wants him dead? 

Which brings up another point... why not just have Lyanna killed? 

[NutBurz]

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

In fact, Lord Denys said he would kill Aerys if it looked like Tywin was about to attack. All Tywin had to do was pretend to make a mistake by re-arranging his men in a formation that suggested an attack.

Sorry if I misunderstood this, but you´re saying that Denys makes a threat to kill Aerys if it looks like Tywin is going to attack, then Tywin makes it look like he´s going to attack (even if by mistake, which would be probably worse), then Denys kills Aerys and that´s somehow not clearly Tywin´s fault?

By sending Barristan, he´s doing the exact one thing that would get Aerys killed - attacking - in a way that it would look like he was at least trying. Every odd would be against Barristan, and both scenarios would be "profitable" to him - either Barristan fails and he gets what he wants undercover, or Barristan succeeds and thus Tywin succeeds at rescuing his King without looking like he was going to attack.

 

 

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

Which brings up another point... why not just have Lyanna killed? 

Again, to have both possibilities open.

Considering he´s playing both Robert and Rhaegar, keeping Lyanna alive gives Rhaegar the possibility of using her and the deposition of his father as bargaining chips to end the war through diplomacy. Robert, however, probably charged at him without any discussion of terms.

That´s why, in my opnion, Rhaegar died with a woman´s name in his lips - he must had be thinking "..but what about Lyanna? Don´t you want her back? I can give you Lyanna."

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

So why keep him around at all. He now has cause to publicly kill him or he could have done it secretly and few would have cared.

What reason do you think he reinstated him?

And there is a further difference between Blount, long standing member of the Kingsguard sand the likes of the Hound and Kettleblack.

He was impressed with all three of them and their reputation just like most of Westeros would. Whether you are great or not the general public still believe that there is some prestige in being a member of that order.

Yup due to Jaime Lannister who killed his King.

He obviously thinks very little of him as he makes no mention of him.

Isn't he just as likely to get rid of him? Permanently.

What use could he have been to Tywin once he was Hand and the war won?

Why would he not keep either of them around? Robert or Jon did not want to punish them, why would Tywin do so?

Gregor Clegane was one of the greatest knights in the kingdom and utterly loyal to Tywin. There was no reason to get rid of him.

After the Blackwater what purpose do you think Blount had?

No he does not, he says that is what he will say to Oberyn and that Tyrion should say it as well.

Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. "The blood was in him."

Sure, I'm not really seeing how this relates to Blount?

Which he is. Blount is not. Not as a warrior, not as a guard, not as a tactician and not even as a spy since Tywin is now in charge.

Blount has zero uses to Tywin outside of his name and the fact that Robert made him a Kingsguard.

Exactly. Clegane is one of the greatest warriors in the land, loyal to a fault and a good general in the field for Tywin. What does Blount offer?

I'm going to answer in one block because we agree on a lot of the details. But how we're each putting the details together seems to be where we disagree. So, here's how I put the above together.

1. Boros Blount is clearly a Lannister lackey on the Kingsguard--when he comes to take Sansa to Cersei after Ned's been imprisoned, Boros is wearing a lion pin. Plus, Baelish flat out tells Ned that Boros and Meryn are Cersei's men. 

2. But Cersei is furious when Boros gives Tommen up to Tyrion's men without a fight. And she says to leave him in Rosby dungeon. Which, as far as I can tell, is where he stays. So, he's in no danger of joining any other cause as Barristan does. Nor does he have anything close to Barristan's reputation.

3. But Tywin reinstates him. Tywin, who killed Masha Heddle and ordered the Mountain to shred the Riverlands over Tyrion's kidnapping, does not kill Blount, which as you say at the start of your post, he has grounds to do. He doesn't leave Boros in Rosby dungeon which would prevent him from joining another cause. He reinstates him.

4. As you said, Boros has done nothing on page anywhere near as impressive (and horrible) as what the Mountain has done for Tywin. But the only reason we have seen Tywin give for protecting brutal men is that they are useful to him.

5. Which means that Boros must be useful to Tywin. But he's a crap Kingsguard. So, why on earth keep him around? At least one very credible answer to that question has to be that Boros has done something that makes him seem useful to Tywin. Presumably something we have not yet seen. And thus he's a "beast" worth keeping around. Like Lorch--at least until Lorch dies.

6. Throw in that Martin includes the sigil of the knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree and that all three are from houses used by Tywin--something's up.

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

He one prime opportunity right in front of him. He was Hand of the King. He could have easily dismissed Barristan's protestations and attacked. He might not get another chance like this ever again. Why waste it because Ser Barristan is fussing? 

In fact, Lord Denys said he would kill Aerys if it looked like Tywin was about to attack. All Tywin had to do was pretend to make a mistake by re-arranging his men in a formation that suggested an attack.

I second what @NutBurz says below:

22 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

By sending Barristan, he´s doing the exact one thing that would get Aerys killed - atacking - in a way that it would look like he was at least trying. Every odd would be against Barristan, and both scenarios would be "profitable" to him - either Barristan fails and he gets what he wants undercover, or Barristan succeeds and thus Tywin succeeds at rescuing his King without looking like he was going to attack.

As you say, every odd is against Barristan. Look at what Barristan actually managed to do to get Aerys back:

Quote

The songs of Ser Barristan's daring rescue of the king are many, and, for a rarity, the singers hardly had to embroider it. Ser Barristan did indeed scale the walls unseen in the dark of the night, using nothing but his bare hands, and he did disguise himself as a hooded beggar as he made his way to the Dun Fort. It is true, as well, that he managed to scale the walls of the Dun Fort in turn, killing a guard on the wallwalk before he could raise the alarm. Then, by stealth and courage, he found his way to the dungeon where the king was being kept. By the time he had Aerys Targaryen out of the dungeon, however, the king's absence had been noted, and the hue and cry went up. And then the true breadth of Ser Barristan's heroism was revealed, for he stood and fought rather than surrender himself or his king.

And not only did he fight, but he struck first, taking Lord Darklyn's good-brother and master-at-arms, Ser Symon Hollard, and a pair of guards unawares, slaying them all—and so avenging the death of his Sworn Brother, Ser Gwayne Gaunt of the Kingsguard, who had been killed at Hollard's hand. He hurried with the king to the stables, fighting his way through those who tried to intervene, and the two were able to ride out of Dun Fort before the castle's gates could be closed. Then there was the wild ride through the streets of Duskendale, while horns and trumpets sounded the alarm, and the race up to the walls as Lord Tywin's archers attempted to clear it of defenders. World Book: The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II.

No wonder Tywin called this plan madness AND approved it. The chances were staggeringly high that Barristan would fail. But everyone would have seen Tywin approve the measure--plausible deniability. Barristan should have died a hero and all the onus would be on the Darklyns. 

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

Tywin giving Barristan a chance to save Aerys is damning evidence against this theory. It shows Tywin actually wants to succeed. Why give anyone the chance to save Aerys if he wants him dead? 

But look at what Barristan did to save Aerys. That plan seems guaranteed to fail. Approving a suicide mission seems like the perfect choice: he looks like he's trying to save the king. The chances are insanely hight that Aerys will die. But if by some miracle Barristan succeeds, Tywin's covered and the onus is still on the Darklyns.

1 hour ago, RoamingRonin said:

Which brings up another point... why not just have Lyanna killed? 

That might have been the plan, especially if we go with the "maybe Lyanna ran like Arya does" option. 

But as for why not kill her, again, @NutBurz beat me to it:

22 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

Again, to have both possibilities open.

Considering he´s playing both Robert and Rhaegar, keeping Lyanna alive gives Rhaegar the possibility of using her and the deposition of his father as bargaining chips to end the war through diplomacy. Robert, however, probably charged at him without any discussion of terms.

Though I would say Rhaegar needs to win the Trident before he asks for terms. His best bet to depose Aerys without more strife is to come out of the Trident a victor and hero. 

22 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

That´s why, in my opnion, Rhaegar died with a woman´s name in his lips - he must had be thinking "..but what about Lyanna? Don´t you want her back? I can give you Lyanna."

HA! I like it!

The one issue I have is that we know Dany knows Lyanna's name. She brings it up herself when discussing Harrenhal with Barristan. So in the House of the Undying, if she heard a name she could recognize well enough to know it was a woman's, wouldn't she recognize it well enough to know the actual name? Unless it was a woman's name she didn't know. And we know she knew Lyanna's and Elia's names very well.

[nanother]

5 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

I'm going to answer in one block because we agree on a lot of the details. But how we're each putting the details together seems to be where we disagree. So, here's how I put the above together.

1. Boros Blount is clearly a Lannister lackey on the Kingsguard--when he comes to take Sansa to Cersei after Ned's been imprisoned, Boros is wearing a lion pin. Plus, Baelish flat out tells Ned that Boros and Meryn are Cersei's men. 

2. But Cersei is furious when Boros gives Tommen up to Tyrion's men without a fight. And she says to leave him in Rosby dungeon. Which, as far as I can tell, is where he stays. So, he's in no danger of joining any other cause as Barristan does. Nor does he have anything close to Barristan's reputation.

3. But Tywin reinstates him. Tywin, who killed Masha Heddle and ordered the Mountain to shred the Riverlands over Tyrion's kidnapping, does not kill Blount, which as you say at the start of your post, he has grounds to do. He doesn't leave Boros in Rosby dungeon which would prevent him from joining another cause. He reinstates him.

4. As you said, Boros has done nothing on page anywhere near as impressive (and horrible) as what the Mountain has done for Tywin. But the only reason we have seen Tywin give for protecting brutal men is that they are useful to him.

5. Which means that Boros must be useful to Tywin. But he's a crap Kingsguard. So, why on earth keep him around? At least one very credible answer to that question has to be that Boros has done something that makes him seem useful to Tywin. Presumably something we have not yet seen. And thus he's a "beast" worth keeping around. Like Lorch--at least until Lorch dies.

6. Throw in that Martin includes the sigil of the knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree and that all three are from houses used by Tywin--something's up.

 

Also, the exchange Tyrion has with Varys about him:

Quote

So my father decided to nip the rose before it bloomed." He had to chuckle. "Pycelle is a toad. But better a Lannister toad than a Tyrell toad, no?"

"Grand Maester Pycelle has always been a good friend to your House," Varys said sweetly. "Perhaps it will console you to learn that Ser Boros Blount is also being restored."

Cersei had stripped Ser Boros of his white cloak for failing to die in the defense of Prince Tommen when Bronn had seized the boy on the Rosby road. The man was no friend of Tyrion's, but after that he likely hated Cersei almost as much. I suppose that's something. "Blount is a blustering coward," he said amiably.

"Is he? Oh dear. Still, the knights of the Kingsguard do serve for life, traditionally. Perhaps Ser Boros will prove braver in future. He will no doubt remain very loyal."

"To my father," said Tyrion pointedly.

No, I can't see what Tywin might hope to gain by having his own man as KG, when he's the Hand and his grandson is the King, butit seems that Tyrion might, and Varys. Perhaps he hopes to use him against the future Queen and the Tyrells. In any case, Tywin almost certainly does expect him to be useful, and that's almost certainly because he had been useful in the past.

[NutBurz]

9 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

The one issue I have is that we know Dany knows Lyanna's name. She brings it up herself when discussing Harrenhal with Barristan. So, if she heard a name she could recognize well enough to know it was a woman's, wouldn't she recognize it well enough to know the actual name? Unless it was a woman's name she didn't know. And we know she knew Lyanna's and Elia's names very well.

And I think that´s actually important, that she knows both names, because the words are " and with his last breath murmured a woman's name. ". Murmured makes it seem to me she couldn´t quite make out the word, and the phonems in Lyanna and Elia sound, again to me, confusing enough for a murmur in a dream.

[Nevets]

While I find the details of this theory unlikely, the thought that Tywin might have used catspaws to somehow arrange the disappearance of Lyanna is an intriguing one.  We certainly know he is willing to use them, and to take flyers in which, if they don't work, no harm is done (e.g., the Westerlings).   How would it work?

He arranges for Rhaegar to "find out" that the three knights are angry with Lyanna and intend to harm her.  This may or not be true.  Even if true, he could arrange for them where Lyanna isn't.  All that is required is that Rhaegar believes it's true.  He then does the abduction, Brandon overreacts, and the stage is set for conflict and hopefully war.  Danger to Lyanna has already been theorized as a motive, but it need not be a real danger to work.  If it doesn't work, and neither Rhaegar or Brandon react as hoped, no harm is done.  Even if it is traced back to him, he can just say "I had bad information.  My bad.  Sorry about that."  

By the way, I do not subscribe to this theory , but it makes more sense than the OP in that it doesn't contradict what is already in the text.

[Seams]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I'm going to answer in one block because we agree on a lot of the details. But how we're each putting the details together seems to be where we disagree. So, here's how I put the above together.

1. Boros Blount is clearly a Lannister lackey on the Kingsguard--when he comes to take Sansa to Cersei after Ned's been imprisoned, Boros is wearing a lion pin. Plus, Baelish flat out tells Ned that Boros and Meryn are Cersei's men. 

2. But Cersei is furious when Boros gives Tommen up to Tyrion's men without a fight. And she says to leave him in Rosby dungeon. Which, as far as I can tell, is where he stays. So, he's in no danger of joining any other cause as Barristan does. Nor does he have anything close to Barristan's reputation.

3. But Tywin reinstates him. Tywin, who killed Masha Heddle and ordered the Mountain to shred the Riverlands over Tyrion's kidnapping, does not kill Blount, which as you say at the start of your post, he has grounds to do. He doesn't leave Boros in Rosby dungeon which would prevent him from joining another cause. He reinstates him.

4. As you said, Boros has done nothing on page anywhere near as impressive (and horrible) as what the Mountain has done for Tywin. But the only reason we have seen Tywin give for protecting brutal men is that they are useful to him.

5. Which means that Boros must be useful to Tywin. But he's a crap Kingsguard. So, why on earth keep him around? At least one very credible answer to that question has to be that Boros has done something that makes him seem useful to Tywin. Presumably something we have not yet seen. And thus he's a "beast" worth keeping around. Like Lorch--at least until Lorch dies.

6. Throw in that Martin includes the sigil of the knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree and that all three are from houses used by Tywin--something's up.

We should also allow for the likelihood that Tywin told Blount and his other loyal men in key places to support Tyrion over Cersei. Blount appeared to be taking Tommen away, complying with Cersei's instructions, but he handed the kid to Bronn as soon as Tyrion said the word. Tywin sent Tyrion to be the Hand because he knew Cersei was not competent to run the kingdom. So Tywin has no problem with Blount's "failure" to protect Tommen, as long as he was delivering the boy to Tyrion. He would not have been so forgiving if Tommen had fallen into the hands of Robb Stark or Stannis Baratheon.

(I also suspect that Tywin heard Maggy the Frog's telling of Cersei's fortune. So Tywin knows that his three grandchildren will not live long, and his plans for a Lannister dynasty aren't built around them. He probably thinks early betrothals are the best use for these kids, but he won't be shocked if they are in perilous situations or if they die young.)

Blount may, in fact, be more useful to Tywin as a "forgiven" lackey than as a lackey who is simply paid to do Tywin's bidding. Tywin gives Joffrey a little sermon about the importance for a king of forgiving enemies who bend the knee. Joffrey rejects this advice, telling Tywin he is a weak coward, and Joffrey soon finds himself dead. Blount may be chastened by his spell in the dungeon and will be extra-loyal and extra-grateful to Tywin for setting him free.

[wolfmaid7]

11 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

.Wait--are you saying that most of the country didn't know about Lyanna's being missing, or Brandon and Rickard's executions in relation to that? That seems hard to buy.

But if you are saying most didn't care too much about Lyanna and the rebellion was more about rebelling against a bad king--then, yes, that works.

But I doubt very much Rhaegar at the point he was talking to Jaime didn't know Lyanna was missing. He may have correctly assessed that Lyanna was not the core problem--Aerys was the core problem in Rhaegar's head. Thus Aerys was his focus. But it's hard to see how Rhaegar wouldn't know by then that Lyanna was missing.

To your first query,yes with a bit of clarification:Brandon and Rickard's execution became known .Its more or less linked to Aerys calling for Ned and Robert's head.We can even use Lyanna's deathbed request of wanting to come home and rest beside them as indication that word on "that" incident was out.

However,putting aside what Ned said about why the reason for the rebellion- Went to win a crown and rose against the Targs to stop the murder of children those were the reason for the rebellion.You can even go to Ned's recollection of his arguement with Robert about Rhaegar's kids he said he left in a cold rage to fight the rest of the wars alone.Again no Lyanna.

Even more strange are accounts such as these:

“Be that as it may. My father sat where I sit now when Lord Eddard came to Sisterton. Our maester urged us to send Stark’s head to Aerys, to prove our loyalty. It would have meant a rich reward. The Mad King was open-handed with them as pleased him. By then we knew that Jon Arryn had taken Gulltown, though. Robert was the first man to gain the wall, and slew Marq Grafton with his own hand. ‘This Baratheon is fearless,’ I said. ‘He fights the way a king should fight.’ Our maester chuckled at me and told us that Prince Rhaegar was certain to defeat this rebel. That was when Stark said, ‘In this world only winter is certain. We may lose our heads, it’s true … but what if we prevail?’ My father sent him on his way with his head still on his shoulders. ‘If you lose,’ he told Lord Eddard, ‘you were never here.’ ”

 

“At the Trident, those brave men Viserys spoke of who died beneath our dragon banners - did they give their lives because they believed in Rhaegar's cause, or because they had been bought and paid for?" Dany turned to Mormont, crossed her arms, and waited for an answer.
"My queen," the big man said slowly, "all you say is true. But Rhaegar lost on the Trident. He lost the battle, he lost the war, he lost the kingdom, and he lost his life. His blood swirled downriver with the rubies from his breastplate, and Robert the Usurper rode over his corpse to steal the Iron Throne. Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died.”

I don't think these people knew Lyanna was missing and Rhaegar was said to have taken her.I would think that these highlords wouldn't be gungho supporting to taking of a highlords daughter just like that.It would be cause for concern.But look at the connotations for whch the refer to Robert and Ned...Rebels seemingly without a cause.

Next if it was well known that "Rhaegar took Lyanna another's bethrothed in that manner would he be seen as fighting nobly and honerably.

As i mentioned elsewhere 12yr old Petyr had the "cohones" to challenge Brandon to a duel for Cat's hand.That's honorable,that't nobly.

To these people Robert and they were in open rebellion and whatever the cause was at the time no one knew.After it was all said and done it seemed better for the songs that all this was done for a woman.Sounds better than the gruesome nature of what really happened.

Which was Aerys called for Ned and Robert's head,Jon Arryn wasn't having it and called his banners....Then it was essentially on.

[norwaywolf123]

7 hours ago, Seams said:

We should also allow for the likelihood that Tywin told Blount and his other loyal men in key places to support Tyrion over Cersei. Blount appeared to be taking Tommen away, complying with Cersei's instructions, but he handed the kid to Bronn as soon as Tyrion said the word. Tywin sent Tyrion to be the Hand because he knew Cersei was not competent to run the kingdom. So Tywin has no problem with Blount's "failure" to protect Tommen, as long as he was delivering the boy to Tyrion. He would not have been so forgiving if Tommen had fallen into the hands of Robb Stark or Stannis Baratheon.

Fair enough

7 hours ago, Seams said:

(I also suspect that Tywin heard Maggy the Frog's telling of Cersei's fortune. So Tywin knows that his three grandchildren will not live long, and his plans for a Lannister dynasty aren't built around them. He probably thinks early betrothals are the best use for these kids, but he won't be shocked if they are in perilous situations or if they die young.)

Even if Tywin heard Maggy the Frog's prophecy, would he believe it?

What are Tywin's plans for a lannister dynasty built around then? 

7 hours ago, Seams said:

Blount may, in fact, be more useful to Tywin as a "forgiven" lackey than as a lackey who is simply paid to do Tywin's bidding. Tywin gives Joffrey a little sermon about the importance for a king of forgiving enemies who bend the knee. Joffrey rejects this advice, telling Tywin he is a weak coward, and Joffrey soon finds himself dead. Blount may be chastened by his spell in the dungeon and will be extra-loyal and extra-grateful to Tywin for setting him free.

Seems likely. 

[Seams]

6 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Even if Tywin heard Maggy the Frog's prophecy, would he believe it?

What are Tywin's plans for a lannister dynasty built around then? 

This thread has provided pretty convincing documentation that Tywin tries to have alternative plans in place at all times. He might take the prophecy somewhat seriously, but have other irons in the fire (so to speak) at the same time.

I believe Tywin's plans for a Lannister dynasty are built around Tyrion. I suspect he was thrilled that Sansa became available for Tyrion instead of Joffrey.

[norwaywolf123]

10 minutes ago, Seams said:

This thread has provided pretty convincing documentation that Tywin tries to have alternative plans in place at all times. He might take the prophecy somewhat seriously, but have other irons in the fire (so to speak) at the same time.

I believe Tywin's plans for a Lannister dynasty are built around Tyrion. I suspect he was thrilled that Sansa became available for Tyrion instead of Joffrey.

I severly doubt that. I think that Tywin's plans were around Jaime and Cersei.

If not he has cousins that can take over the Lannister legacy. And maybe bastards?

[Sly Wren]

On May 18, 2016 at 2:20 PM, nanother said:

No, I can't see what Tywin might hope to gain by having his own man as KG, when he's the Hand and his grandson is the King, butit seems that Tyrion might, and Varys. Perhaps he hopes to use him against the future Queen and the Tyrells. In any case, Tywin almost certainly does expect him to be useful, and that's almost certainly because he had been useful in the past.

Yup! And given that the novels show us that Boros is no genius, the idea that Tywin ever used him for "intrigue" seems very unlikely. But an attack on a girl and her escort? That's just brute force. And that's what Boros does well.

On May 18, 2016 at 2:31 PM, NutBurz said:

And I think that´s actually important, that she knows both names, because the words are " and with his last breath murmured a woman's name. ". Murmured makes it seem to me she couldn´t quite make out the word, and the phonems in Lyanna and Elia sound, again to me, confusing enough for a murmur in a dream.

Completely fair. And the murmur could make it sound name-isa, but unrecognizable.

I just get caught up with the fact that she recognizes it well enough to know it's a woman's name, but not well enough to recognize it as a name important to her (like Lyanna or Elia). Especially since we see her hear and understand names and words in other visions and the voice that keeps saying all the "three" stuff. If it were just a mumble, why would Dany think it was a woman's name? Pure conjecture? 

But, as you say, the murmur might be enough to thread the needle between recognizable enough to be a woman's name, but not enough to recognize the specific name.

[Sly Wren]

On May 18, 2016 at 2:38 PM, Nevets said:

While I find the details of this theory unlikely, the thought that Tywin might have used catspaws to somehow arrange the disappearance of Lyanna is an intriguing one.  We certainly know he is willing to use them, and to take flyers in which, if they don't work, no harm is done (e.g., the Westerlings).   How would it work?

He arranges for Rhaegar to "find out" that the three knights are angry with Lyanna and intend to harm her.  This may or not be true.  Even if true, he could arrange for them where Lyanna isn't.  All that is required is that Rhaegar believes it's true.  He then does the abduction, Brandon overreacts, and the stage is set for conflict and hopefully war.  Danger to Lyanna has already been theorized as a motive, but it need not be a real danger to work.  If it doesn't work, and neither Rhaegar or Brandon react as hoped, no harm is done.  Even if it is traced back to him, he can just say "I had bad information.  My bad.  Sorry about that."

That could work, too. Though, why would Rhaegar take Lyanna instead of just alerting her guard when he finds her?

If she's running from attackers (as does Arya) or is stuck with an enemy (as is Sansa), then Rhaegar's "taking" her from that situation seems more likely. 

Or are you thinking of another scenario that I'm not seeing?

On May 18, 2016 at 2:38 PM, Nevets said:

By the way, I do not subscribe to this theory , but it makes more sense than the OP in that it doesn't contradict what is already in the text.

Any chance you'd be willing to say what in the OP contradicts the text?

[Sly Wren]

On May 19, 2016 at 11:41 PM, wolfmaid7 said:

I don't think these people knew Lyanna was missing and Rhaegar was said to have taken her.I would think that these highlords wouldn't be gungho supporting to taking of a highlords daughter just like that.It would be cause for concern.But look at the connotations for whch the refer to Robert and Ned...Rebels seemingly without a cause.

Perhaps--but they seem to forgive him afterwards. IE: Barristan calls Rhaegar a fine man AND thinks that is loved got everyone killed. Doesn't just blame Aerys, but also comes up with a reason to excuse Rhaegar. So, any reason that others who supported Rhaegar might not do similar "arithmetic" in their heads? That, "yes, he stole a highborn girl, and yes, that was bad. but he must really have loved her and he's really great so we'll fight for him."

On May 19, 2016 at 11:41 PM, wolfmaid7 said:

Next if it was well known that "Rhaegar took Lyanna another's bethrothed in that manner would he be seen as fighting nobly and honerably.

As i mentioned elsewhere 12yr old Petyr had the "cohones" to challenge Brandon to a duel for Cat's hand.That's honorable,that't nobly.

To these people Robert and they were in open rebellion and whatever the cause was at the time no one knew.After it was all said and done it seemed better for the songs that all this was done for a woman.Sounds better than the gruesome nature of what really happened.

Again, though--we see people rationalize all sorts of things for those they admire. And Rhaegar was very admired. So, given that many saw him crown Lyanna (reasons to be determined), is there any reason they couldn't rationalize what he did before he died instead of waiting until after? They all knew, but they rationalized it because they liked him.

Plus, I have a hard time seeing why or how the belief that Rhaegar took Lyanna would be kept quiet. Robert's hardly known for stealth and subtlety The Arryns, Tullys, and Starks are all in, too. Four great houses involved and word of Lyanna doesn't get out?

On May 19, 2016 at 11:41 PM, wolfmaid7 said:

Which was Aerys called for Ned and Robert's head,Jon Arryn wasn't having it and called his banners....Then it was essentially on.

Agreed--this is what got them to call the banners. But the Prince running off with a highborn lady that he'd earlier crowned at a huge tournament--that's a juicy story. Hard to see how that wouldn't get out.

[Sly Wren]

On May 18, 2016 at 5:00 PM, Seams said:

We should also allow for the likelihood that Tywin told Blount and his other loyal men in key places to support Tyrion over Cersei. Blount appeared to be taking Tommen away, complying with Cersei's instructions, but he handed the kid to Bronn as soon as Tyrion said the word. Tywin sent Tyrion to be the Hand because he knew Cersei was not competent to run the kingdom. So Tywin has no problem with Blount's "failure" to protect Tommen, as long as he was delivering the boy to Tyrion. He would not have been so forgiving if Tommen had fallen into the hands of Robb Stark or Stannis Baratheon.

This one seems possible, but hard to see: Tywin's at war when he sends Tyrion to be the Hand. Could he have sent word to Blount? Sure. But, as I said above, Blount is. . . . not remotely overburdened with intellect. So, he's a brute beast, not intrigue.

Plus, we see he's a coward in the riot at King's Landing when Tyrion is trying to get him to go back out and find Sansa. He really drags his heels. When the Hound comes back, Blount is relieved. So, if Blout is supposed to obey Tyrion, seems like he would have done so then.

Seems more like he's just a coward and a brute.

On May 18, 2016 at 5:00 PM, Seams said:

Blount may, in fact, be more useful to Tywin as a "forgiven" lackey than as a lackey who is simply paid to do Tywin's bidding. Tywin gives Joffrey a little sermon about the importance for a king of forgiving enemies who bend the knee. Joffrey rejects this advice, telling Tywin he is a weak coward, and Joffrey soon finds himself dead. Blount may be chastened by his spell in the dungeon and will be extra-loyal and extra-grateful to Tywin for setting him free.

Very true--but he'd be loyal to Tywin. Still, why forgive a man who's a coward and an idiot unless you already know his value in some way?

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

That could work, too. Though, why would Rhaegar take Lyanna instead of just alerting her guard when he finds her?

If she's running from attackers (as does Arya) or is stuck with an enemy (as is Sansa), then Rhaegar's "taking" her from that situation seems more likely. 

Or are you thinking of another scenario that I'm not seeing?

Any chance you'd be willing to say what in the OP contradicts the text?

It's likely that any guard she has would be primarily to deter opportunistic local outlaws and the like, and not people or groups intent on causing actual trouble.  It's quite possible that Rhaegar offered to escort her someplace safe, and things went wrong.  Or, maybe Tywin knew about Rhaegar's interest in involving Lyanna in fulfilling the prophecies (which I think Rhaegar had), and was hoping that Rhaegar would take this opportunity to try to convince Lyanna and either succeed or run off with her.  Ned's comments about her "wolf's blood" and about 15-year-olds not having sense lend some credence to this possibility.

GRRM likes to do "perfect storm" stories, where disparate events come together in the worst way possible to create the greatest amount of trouble.  If my idea is true, that could be the case here.  Maybe she decided to go along with the prophecy idea, or decided to take the opportunity to break her betrothal to Robert.  In this scenario, everything that could go wrong, would.

One reason I prefer this idea is that it makes Rhaegar's taking of Lyanna appear to be unprovoked.  If he is doing an actual rescue, there is too much chance of that fact getting out, in which case Rhaegar is the hero, not the goat.  

I am firmly of the belief that Rhaegar took Lyanna directly.  I think GRRM is not completely fooling us on this.  The motives might be in doubt, but I don't really doubt the bare facts that we are given.

Also, Blount's sigil is never mentioned in the text, despite opportunity to do so.  If GRRM intended the porcupine to be Blount, and it's a clue, as you suggest, then he would have mentioned it somewhere.  For example, in ASOS, Jaime is reading through the White Book, which includes the KG's sigils.  It would have been very easy for Martin to have him read about his fellow KG and notice the porcupine sigil in the corner.  Since he didn't, I'm skeptical that it matters.

[nanother]

I looked into the World Book for an Aerys& Tywin timeline. It doesn't have to do with the Porcupine Knight, but maybe helps to better understand what was going on between them, so I don't think it's too far off topic.

Note that the main source for all this is Pycelle, loyal to House Lannister and a huge Tywin fan.

pre-259:

Quote

Aerys and Tywin had known each other since childhood. As a boy, Tywin Lannister had served as a royal page at King's Landing. He and Prince Aerys, together with a younger page, the prince's cousin Steffon Baratheon of Storm's End, had become inseparable. 

Also, at some point, Aerys married Rhaella and Rhaegar was conceived. Seeing that Aerys was 18 when he ascended to the throne, he must have been 15 or younger when this happened. Hopefully Rhaella was his older sister.

259:

Summerhall, Rhaegar born, Jaehaerys becomes King. Joanna Lannister goes to court, rumour (unfounded, maester Pycelle assures us) is that Aerys deflowered her and made her his paramour.

260:

Quote

During the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the three friends had fought together, Tywin as a new-made knight, Steffon and Prince Aerys as squires. When Prince Aerys won his spurs at six-and-ten, it was to SerTywin he granted the signal honor of dubbing him a knight. 

261: Extinction of houses Reyne and Tarbeck

262: Aerys King, Tywin Hand

263: Tywin's wedding, where Aerys reportedly tooks some 'unwonted liberties'. Joanna is dismissed from court soon after.

Quote

The scurrilous rumor that Joanna Lannister gave up her maidenhead to Prince Aerys the night of his father's coronation and enjoyed a brief reign as his paramour after he ascended the Iron Throne can safely be discounted. As Pycelle insists in his letters, Tywin Lannister would scarce have taken his cousin to wife if that had been true, "for he was ever a proud man and not one accustomed to feasting upon another man's leavings."

It has been reliably reported, however, that King Aerys took unwonted liberties with Lady Joanna's person during her bedding ceremony, to Tywin's displeasure. Not long thereafter, Queen Rhaella dismissed Joanna Lannister from her service. No reason for this was ever given, but Lady Joanna departed at once for Casterly Rock and seldom visited King's Landing thereafter.

266: Cersei & Jaime born

Quote

This birth only exacerbated the tension between Aerys II Targaryen and his Hand. "I appear to have married the wrong woman," His Grace was reported to have said, when informed of the happy event. Nonetheless, he sent each child its weight in gold as a nameday gift and commanded Tywin to bring them to court when they were old enough to travel. "And bring their mother, too, for it has been too long since I gazed upon that fair face," he insisted.

267: Tywin's father dies

Quote

The following year, 267 AC, saw the death of Lord Tytos Lannister at the age of six-and forty. Reportedly, his lordship's heart burst as he was climbing a steep turnpike stair to the bedchambers of his mistress. With his passing, Ser Tywin Lannister became the Lord of Casterly Rock and Warden of the West. When he returned to the west to attend his father's funeral and set the westerlands in order, King Aerys decided to accompany him. Though His Grace left the queen behind in King's Landing (Her Grace was pregnant with the child who proved to be the stillborn Princess Shaena), he took their eight-year-old son Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, and more than half the court. For the better part of the next year, the Seven Kingdoms were ruled from Lannisport and Casterly Rock, where both the king and his Hand were in residence.

268:

Quote

The court returned to King's Landing in 268 AC, and governance resumed as before...but it was plain to all that the friendship between the king and his Hand was fraying. Where previously Aerys had sided with Tywin Lannister on most matters of substance, now the two men began to disagree. 

270-ish: Aerys begins to dismiss westernmen he suspects being 'Hand's men' from their positions. Appoints Darry as Master of Arms of the Red Keep, instead of Tygett Lannister.

Quote

By this time, King Aerys had become aware of the widespread belief that he himself was but a hollow figurehead and Tywin Lannister the true master of the Seven Kingdoms. These sentiments greatly angered the king, and His Grace became determined to disprove them and to humble his "overmighty servant" and "put him back into his place."

272: Tywin attempts to resign over an insult to Joanna, but Aerys refuses:

Quote

At the great Anniversary Tourney of 272 AC, held to commemorate Aerys's tenth year upon the Iron Throne, Joanna Lannister brought her six-year-old twins Jaime and Cersei from Casterly Rock to present before the court. The king (very much in his cups) asked her if giving suck to them had "ruined your breasts, which were so high and proud." The question greatly amused Lord Tywin's rivals, who were always pleased to see the Hand slighted or made mock of, but Lady Joanna was humiliated. Tywin Lannister attempted to return his chain of office the next morning, but the king refused to accept his resignation.

Aerys II could, of course, have dismissed Tywin Lannister at any time and named his own man as Hand of the King, but instead, for whatever reason, the king chose to keep his boyhood friend close by him, laboring on his behalf, even as he began to undermine him in ways both great and small. Slights and gibes became ever more numerous; courtiers hoping for advancement soon learned that the quickest way to catch the king's eye was by making mock of his solemn, humorless Hand. Yet through all this, Tywin Lannister suffered in silence.

273: Joanna dies giving birth to Tyrion. Oberyn and Elia visit with their mother, Tywin refuses the proposed matches. Ilyn Payne de-tongued for boasting that it's Tywin who really rules the realm.  In general, "the king grew ever more erratic, violent, and suspicious".

Quote

Upon hearing of [Tyrion's] birth, King Aerys infamously said, "The gods cannot abide such arrogance. They have plucked a fair flower from his hand and given him a monster in her place, to teach him some humility at last."

276: Viserys born, Tywin proposes to wed Cersei to Rhaegar and is refused

Quote

Perhaps seeking to gain advantage of His Grace's high spirits, Lord Tywin chose that very night to suggest that it was past time the king's heir wed and produced an heir of his own; he proposed his own daughter, Cersei, as wife for the crown prince. Aerys II rejected this proposal brusquely, informing LordTywin that he was a good and valuable servant, yet a servant nonetheless. Nor did His Grace agree to appoint Lord Tywin's son Jaime as squire to Prince Rhaegar; that honor he granted instead to the sons of several of his own favorites, men known to be no friends of House Lannister or the Hand.

277: Duskendale

278: Aerys grows madder and more paranoid

Quote

Prince Rhaegar, he was convinced, had conspired with Tywin Lannister to have him slain at Duskendale. They had planned to storm the town walls so that Lord Darklyn would put him to death, opening the way for Rhaegar to mount the Iron Throne and marry Lord Tywin's daughter.

 

Quote

The rumors were rife that Aerys meant to make Lord Steffon his new Hand upon the successful completion of this mission, thatTywin Lannister was about to be removed from office, arrested, and tried for high treason. And there was many a lord who took delight in that prospect.

but

Quote

When word of their deaths reached King's Landing, King Aerys flew into a rage and told Grand Maester Pycelle that Tywin Lannister had somehow divined his royal intentions and arranged for Lord Baratheon's murder. "If I dismiss him as Hand, he will kill me, too," the king told the grand maester.

279: Rhaegar betrothed to Elia; Tywin brings Cersei to court; Varys is imported from Pentos

280: Rhaenys born, Harrenhal tourney announced late in the year

281: Grandison dies, Jaime appointed, Harrenhal

283: Tywin shows up with an army at the gates of KL

----

A few things that stand out:

1. What reason did Tywin have to think Aerys was going to accept the marriage proposal? They had been at odds for several years by then and Aerys had been "undermining him in ways both great and small."

2. His comment about "having a better king" at Duskendale - I find it hard to believe that he really said that out loud and in front of witnessess.

3. Joanna. Did Aerys start antagonising Tywin because he was obsessed with Joanna, or was he obsessed with Joanna because she was his rival's wife?

4. It's repeated several times (in TWoIaF and the books) that "Tywin ruled the Seven Kingdoms, but was ruled at home by his lady wife". Indeed, it seems that the marriage plans for Cersei changed from Oberyn to Rhaegar as soon as Joanna died.

[nanother]

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Plus, I have a hard time seeing why or how the belief that Rhaegar took Lyanna would be kept quiet. Robert's hardly known for stealth and subtlety The Arryns, Tullys, and Starks are all in, too. Four great houses involved and word of Lyanna doesn't get out?

Agreed--this is what got them to call the banners. But the Prince running off with a highborn lady that he'd earlier crowned at a huge tournament--that's a juicy story. Hard to see how that wouldn't get out.

FWIW, Tywin remarks at some point that at the time of the sack, "Ser Amory acted on his own in the hope of winning favor from the new king. Robert's hatred for Rhaegar was scarcely a secret."

Quote

Ser Elys Westerling and Lord Crakehall and others of his father's knights burst into the hall in time to see the last of it, so there was no way for Jaime to vanish and let some braggart steal the praise or blame. It would be blame, he knew at once when he saw the way they looked at him . . . though perhaps that was fear. Lannister or no, he was one of Aerys's seven.

"The castle is ours, ser, and the city," Roland Crakehall told him, which was half true. Targaryen loyalists were still dying on the serpentine steps and in the armory, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast, and Ned Stark was leading his northmen through the King's Gate even then, but Crakehall could not have known that. 

Sounds like that Lorch had no way of knowing who the new king was yet. Unless it was an open secret, but then why did Crakehall ask Jaime who to proclaim?

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Yup! And given that the novels show us that Boros is no genius, the idea that Tywin ever used him for "intrigue" seems very unlikely. But an attack on a girl and her escort? That's just brute force. And that's what Boros does well.

Another puzzling tidbit is about restoring Pycelle:

Quote

Do I have my sweet sister to thank for that?" Pycelle had been his sister's creature; Tyrion had stripped the man of office, beard, and dignity, and flung him down into a black cell.

"Not at all, my lord. Thank the archmaesters of Oldtown, those who wished to insist on Pycelle's restoration on the grounds that only the Conclave may make or unmake a Grand Maester."

...

"Thankfully, wiser heads prevailed, and the Conclave accepted the fact of Pycelle's dismissal and set about choosing his successor. After giving due consideration to Maester Turquin the cordwainer's son and Maester Erreck the hedge knight's bastard, and thereby demonstrating to their own satisfaction that ability counts for more than birth in their order, the Conclave was on the verge of sending us Maester Gormon, a Tyrell of Highgarden. When I told your lord father, he acted at once."

Tyrion is quite wrong about Pycelle being his sister's creature. He's Tywin's, above all. He worked with him ever since he firts became a Hand, and he was the one advising Aerys to open the gates for Tywin:

Quote

Pycelle's breathing was rapid and shallow. "All I did, I did for House Lannister." A sheen of sweat covered the broad dome of the old man's brow, and wisps of white hair clung to his wrinkled skin. "Always . . . for years . . . your lord father, ask him, I was ever his true servant . . . 'twas I who bid Aerys open his gates . . ."

That took Tyrion by surprise. He had been no more than an ugly boy at Casterly Rock when the city fell. "So the Sack of King's Landing was your work as well?"

"For the realm! Once Rhaegar died, the war was done. Aerys was mad, Viserys too young, Prince Aegon a babe at the breast, but the realm needed a king . . . I prayed it should be your good father, but Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . ."

He sounds as loyal and useful as you can get, yet Tywin needed the threat of a Highgarden maester to restore him ...