Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

A lot of the above is based on broad hand waving and not on a realistic interpretation of the evidence, I'm afraid.

Let me just say that you are right that there are powerful Landed Knights in Westeros. I am very well aware of that, as you will know from previous discussion on this issue. You might be surprised that I do rank the Tallharts and Glovers as very powerful Landed Knights. But the context we are given is that House Templeton, who are used as an example of a Landed Knight on the extreme end of the power scale, is described as such because he can raise a 1000 men, compared to some weak Lords who can raise barely 50 men.

Well, I fully give the Tallharts and Glovers at least 1000 men each. In fact, I reckon they can each likely raise 1500 men or more. That makes them perhaps the most powerful Landed Knights in all of Westeros. However, if you look at the description of Deepwood Motte, then my general assessment of the Glover wealth is not particularly high. Hence, I would say their heavy cavalry percentage is likely in the order of 300 men out of that 1500, or thereabouts. 20%. Which is still a very respectable ratio.

The Tallharts and Glovers aren't landed knights, though. They are equivalent to those or seem to be that. But they are scarcely the most powerful of those, either, considering that the Fossoways seem to be landed knights, too, and Ser Jon Fossoway was prestigious enough to marry Mace Tyrell's sister. I very much doubt that such a family can only raise 1,500 men.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Boltons, it is undeniable that they have the majority of 4000 men returning to the North. Logic dictates that they would have had even more when they originally headed South. So whichever way you look at it, they had at a minimum as many men as the Karstarks when they first gathered at Winterfell. So just from what we have seen onscreen, they have had around 3000 quality troops in action in the books thus far. And even the reserve troops consisted of a high quality garrison, compared to the Karstarks who according to Alys were very stretched to raise what they have thus far.

Two men out of ten isn't necessarily 4,000 men. Robb didn't have exactly 20,000 men and Theon didn't count the men who returned. It could be 4,500 or 3,300 for all we know.

More importantly, you have to keep in mind that all the men who returned with Roose would have to be Bolton men in a very real sense. They survived the Red Wedding only because they participated in it and were thus complicit in the murder of their king and his mother as well as their fellow Northmen. The idea that Roose would allow any men to return home with him who might later spread tales he did not want to hear or fuel rebellion isn't very likely.

The bulk of the men would have been Dreadfort men but there would have been others. Trusted freeriders, Ryswell levies and whatever few Dustin men Lady Barbrey sent down south, but the majority of the non-Bolton men would actually have been Karstark men because the majority of the men Roose brought to the Twins before the Red Wedding were Karstark men who were either fine with murdering Robb Stark (because the man beheaded their liege lord) or even actively participated in the Red Wedding one way or another.

Regardless how many men Roose brought home with him they would all be Bolton men in the sense that they are now with him to the end or dead. In that sense I'd not insist on the 4,000 men coming home with Roose because that would men that Roose has 4,000 men with him at Winterfell right now on whose loyalty he can be completely sure. The men surviving/participating in the Red Wedding would not be interesting in allowing their fellow Northmen to question them about their role in it.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the sizes of Northern territories. Your assertion is just not true. We know that the Umber lands border on the Bay of Seals, where they are exposed to wildling raids along the coast. At the same time Jon tells us that it borders on the Kingsroad. So that is about a 200 mile diameter from East to West. Then Jon also tells us that the Kingsroad runs next to their lands for about 300 miles from North to South. So right there we have a very clear indication of the extent of the Umber lands.

It gives us a good indication how the border line looks in the West. But not necessarily how it is in the east. Nobody said their lands extended 300 miles along the coast, not to mention that we don't know whether they control all the lands in between.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

A typical Northern lordship. Simlarly, the Mormonts rule all of Bear Island. The Mountain Clans rule all of the Northern Mountains.

The mountain clans aren't an political entity. They are different clans with different parcels of land who often quarrel with their neighbors.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Ryswells rule all of the Rills. The Reeds rule all of the Neck. The Dustins rule the Barrowlands. We know where the Hornwood lands are, and where the Umber lands end. And that between them are nestled the Bolton lands. So it is pretty obvious how large the Bolton lands are more or less.

We don't whether the Dustins rule all the Barrowlands or the Ryswells all the Rills. And even if we did, we have no idea about the borders of those regions. Was the place Robert and Ned had their conversation in AGoT on Dustin land? Do the Ryswells also rule Cape Kraken? We have no idea.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Boltons on a meta level fit the position of the Royces in the Vale, the Yronwoods in Dorne, the Freys in the Riverlands and the Reynes and Tarbecks in the West. Powerful secondary lords who breathe in the necks of their Lords Paramount. And have done so for centuries or even millennia.

The Boltons certainly aren't weak and they were a pain in the ass to the Starks in the past but we don't know how powerful they were in the past when they still wore crowns. But the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwoods seem to play in an entirely different league than the Boltons. While the Boltons were powerful petty kings back in their days the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwood came pretty close to actually rule the very kingdoms the Arryns, Lannisters, and Martells later conquered. But the Boltons never came even close to conquer the entire North, nor are they right now stronger than the other powerful Lords of the North like the Manderlys, Karstarks, and Dustins.

You should not make the mistakes that being a guy like Roose or Walder means you are much more powerful than your peers. It just means you are very ambitious. Even the Red Lion didn't really have the power to truly challenge the might of Casterly Rock. Not on his own. All he could do was hope that many of his peers would either join him against Tywin/Tytos or at least stay out of the conflict.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The North is not the 2nd least populated region. They are the least densely populated region. That is a very different statement.

 

 

 

That is your answer for such a long post? I do not claim it was filled with information and all of them very good but at least the part about land sizes and numbers of troops on them are rather useful to get an idea of how sparsely it is populated, and that was my intention at the first place. So forgive me wording a few sentencens not correctly and misremembering whether Dorne was the least populated or the most sparsely populated due to my severe lack of sleep past couple of days and please answer again instead of just scrapping all those information.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Tallharts and Glovers aren't landed knights, though. They are equivalent to those or seem to be that. But they are scarcely the most powerful of those, either, considering that the Fossoways seem to be landed knights, too, and Ser Jon Fossoway was prestigious enough to marry Mace Tyrell's sister. I very much doubt that such a family can only raise 1,500 men.

Two men out of ten isn't necessarily 4,000 men. Robb didn't have exactly 20,000 men and Theon didn't count the men who returned. It could be 4,500 or 3,300 for all we know.

More importantly, you have to keep in mind that all the men who returned with Roose would have to be Bolton men in a very real sense. They survived the Red Wedding only because they participated in it and were thus complicit in the murder of their king and his mother as well as their fellow Northmen. The idea that Roose would allow any men to return home with him who might later spread tales he did not want to hear or fuel rebellion isn't very likely.

The bulk of the men would have been Dreadfort men but there would have been others. Trusted freeriders, Ryswell levies and whatever few Dustin men Lady Barbrey sent down south, but the majority of the non-Bolton men would actually have been Karstark men because the majority of the men Roose brought to the Twins before the Red Wedding were Karstark men who were either fine with murdering Robb Stark (because the man beheaded their liege lord) or even actively participated in the Red Wedding one way or another.

Regardless how many men Roose brought home with him they would all be Bolton men in the sense that they are now with him to the end or dead. In that sense I'd not insist on the 4,000 men coming home with Roose because that would men that Roose has 4,000 men with him at Winterfell right now on whose loyalty he can be completely sure. The men surviving/participating in the Red Wedding would not be interesting in allowing their fellow Northmen to question them about their role in it.

It gives us a good indication how the border line looks in the West. But not necessarily how it is in the east. Nobody said their lands extended 300 miles along the coast, not to mention that we don't know whether they control all the lands in between.

The mountain clans aren't an political entity. They are different clans with different parcels of land who often quarrel with their neighbors.

We don't whether the Dustins rule all the Barrowlands or the Ryswells all the Rills. And even if we did, we have no idea about the borders of those regions. Was the place Robert and Ned had their conversation in AGoT on Dustin land? Do the Ryswells also rule Cape Kraken? We have no idea.

The Boltons certainly aren't weak and they were a pain in the ass to the Starks in the past but we don't know how powerful they were in the past when they still wore crowns. But the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwoods seem to play in an entirely different league than the Boltons. While the Boltons were powerful petty kings back in their days the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwood came pretty close to actually rule the very kingdoms the Arryns, Lannisters, and Martells later conquered. But the Boltons never came even close to conquer the entire North, nor are they right now stronger than the other powerful Lords of the North like the Manderlys, Karstarks, and Dustins.

You should not make the mistakes that being a guy like Roose or Walder means you are much more powerful than your peers. It just means you are very ambitious. Even the Red Lion didn't really have the power to truly challenge the might of Casterly Rock. Not on his own. All he could do was hope that many of his peers would either join him against Tywin/Tytos or at least stay out of the conflict.

Lord Varys

I agree with you that the men Roose brought to the Red Wedding consisted almost entirely of Boltons and Karstarks. Because they are the only two Houses he could trust to carry out his foul deed of betrayal against the Starks. But as was demonstrated on the other thread, the Karstark component of the 3500 has to be very small. It excludes the 300 cavalry, it excludes the 1000 Karstarks roaming the Riverlands in search of Jaime, it excludes the main remaining Karstark host that Roose sent with Harrion Karstark to die at Duskendale and it excludes the losses they suffered when the Mountain hit the Karstark flank at the Green Fork.

So it is incorrect that the majority of the host Roose brought to the Red Wedding were Karstarks. The majority- the vast majority it seems - were Dreadfort men. The Karstarks could not even have realistically numbered 500 of that total.

And we know the Ryswell and Dustin men were not part of this slaughtering force, as Lady Dustin says that her own men were part of those slaughtered by the Freys at the Red Wedding.

And this 3500 Bolton force would logically have picked up the 600 men left guarding the ford of the Trident, on the way back to Moat Cailin, indeed taking it back to 4000 - 4100 in fact - by the time Theon saw them marching past Moat Cailin.

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And this 3500 Bolton force would logically have picked up the 600 men left guarding the ford of the Trident, on the way back to Moat Cailin, indeed taking it back to 4000 - 4100 in fact - by the time Theon saw them marching past Moat Cailin.

Logically, he'd leave all that 600 men behind as they would ask questions about what happened to their liege lords and king. Remember that 100 of them are Hornwood men, whose lady has been forcibly married to Roose's bastard and left to die of hunger, eating her own fingers. other 500 hundred men are mountain clansmen, men from White knife, Ryswells, Cerwyns and Stouts and some freeriders. most of these men would be staunchly loyal to house Stark and even if we assume Ryswells and Stouts (Dustin bannermen) are more flexible with their loyalties, remember their friends have also died in RW. Only way Roose can hope to hold North in his hands is having the numbers. This is why he sent men off to die whenever he can, why he took his time going to Edmure's wedding, and why he took the Karstark men after Robb killed Rickard.

Lady Dustin knows what happened and stays silent, Manderly knows what happened and stays silent and obviously all the other lords know or at least suspect what happened. Yet they can't raise thier voices because none of them have any men left and putting Wyman and Barbrey aside, I doubt even if all of the rest combined together they could hope to match Roose's numbers.

Theon says near 20k or so men went south and only 2/10 returned. This would mean 4k returned if the number was exact but they are always rounded. 3,5/20 = 1,75/10, rounded up it is 2/10. Two more rounding examples from Theon himself:

- Robb gathered 18k men at Moat Cailin, maybe a few hundred more, add Manderlys and it is 19,5K or so. Robb leaves a garrison to defend MC, Eddard himself wanted it garrisoned with 200 archers for starters so Robb possibly left more. Theon says they have 5 times the number of Walder Frey, they have 19k or so men 19/4 = 4,75 rounded to 5.

-Theon says Rodrik has 5 times as meny men, Ramsay somewhat confirms by saying aye he did. Ramsay later tells he has promised 200, brought 3 times that. 2000/5 =400  200x3 =600, numbers don't add up one is half as many as the other. If 2000/500= 4 and 500/3 = 166, then, while still not ideal, it's a good enough compromise between the 5 times as agreed on by Theon and Ramsay and 3 times of what Ramsay promised.

As for the roaming 1k Karstarks(again rounded, possibly rounded down with a hundred or two more at most), I'm pretty sure they went North with Roose;  Karstarks had 2000 men at start and they have already lost men in Greenfork and Duskendale. (They encountered Tywin's van in Greenfork)

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Logically, he'd leave all that 600 men behind as they would ask questions about what happened to their liege lords and king. Remember that 100 of them are Hornwood men, whose lady has been forcibly married to Roose's bastard and left to die of hunger, eating her own fingers. other 500 hundred men are mountain clansmen, men from White knife, Ryswells, Cerwyns and Stouts and some freeriders. most of these men would be staunchly loyal to house Stark and even if we assume Ryswells and Stouts (Dustin bannermen) are more flexible with their loyalties, remember their friends have also died in RW. Only way Roose can hope to hold North in his hands is having the numbers. This is why he sent men off to die whenever he can, why he took his time going to Edmure's wedding, and why he took the Karstark men after Robb killed Rickard.

Lady Dustin knows what happened and stays silent, Manderly knows what happened and stays silent and obviously all the other lords know or at least suspect what happened. Yet they can't raise thier voices because none of them have any men left and putting Wyman and Barbrey aside, I doubt even if all of the rest combined together they could hope to match Roose's numbers.

Theon says near 20k or so men went south and only 2/10 returned. This would mean 4k returned if the number was exact but they are always rounded. 3,5/20 = 1,75/10, rounded up it is 2/10. Two more rounding examples from Theon himself:

- Robb gathered 18k men at Moat Cailin, maybe a few hundred more, add Manderlys and it is 19,5K or so. Robb leaves a garrison to defend MC, Eddard himself wanted it garrisoned with 200 archers for starters so Robb possibly left more. Theon says they have 5 times the number of Walder Frey, they have 19k or so men 19/4 = 4,75 rounded to 5.

-Theon says Rodrik has 5 times as meny men, Ramsay somewhat confirms by saying aye he did. Ramsay later tells he has promised 200, brought 3 times that. 2000/5 =400  200x3 =600, numbers don't add up one is half as many as the other. If 2000/500= 4 and 500/3 = 166, then, while still not ideal, it's a good enough compromise between the 5 times as agreed on by Theon and Ramsay and 3 times of what Ramsay promised.

As for the roaming 1k Karstarks(again rounded, possibly rounded down with a hundred or two more at most), I'm pretty sure they went North with Roose;  Karstarks had 2000 men at start and they have already lost men in Greenfork and Duskendale. (They encountered Tywin's van in Greenfork)

I don't respond to every bit because some of the calculations get too detailed for the broad strokes information we have available. And it becomes information overload.

Broadly, I'm afraid your explanation for what happened to the 600 men at the Trident doesn't make sense. And is not really relevant to the bigger issue either way. Theon says there are 20% of 20k men with Roose at Moat Cailin. Roose had 3500 men at the Twins. There are 600 men waiting directly on his route back to the North. It fits the evidence that he picked them up again.

Lady Dustin herself says that she had men die at the Twins. She refers to how the Hornwood men feel about what happened to their Lady. Same with how doubtful the Cerwyn loyalty is. So Roose clearly included those men despite their questionable loyalty, because he had the support of the Iron Throne, the Lannisters and the Freys at the time.

It just makes sense.

As for the Karstarks. Roose himself says he sent their remaining strength off to die at Duskendale, with their remaining liege lord, Harrion. None of those guys made it back to Roose's force. And this was after the Green Fork losses.  So which Karstarks could possibly be in his 3500 at the Twins? It has to be very small number.

The most simple solution is that he added the 600 ford guards to his 3500 on the way back. Why try and complicate it beyond that?

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And we know the Ryswell and Dustin men were not part of this slaughtering force, as Lady Dustin says that her own men were part of those slaughtered by the Freys at the Red Wedding.

That is not necessarily true. We only know that some Barrowton men died at the Twins. But we don't know if all of them died. Robb Stark did split up the armies at the Twins. If Barrowton and Ryswell men remained with Robb's cavalry then they wouldn't have been part of the Red Wedding. And neither would have been Roose's horsemen who remained with Robb throughout the entire war, by the way.

The idea that Roose took the men with him he rid himself before because he could not trust them makes little sense. It is much more likely he picked up some Karstark men on the way up to the Twins (from those men who abandoned Robb at Riverrun) if we assume he didn't have all that many left.

And again, if we go with 4,000 Bolton men returning then Theon's 5,000-6,000 men at Winterfell don't make all that much sense. Theon had more than enough time to get a pretty good picture of the men assembled at Barrowton and later Winterfell due to his long walks among the castle, the food they were eating, and so forth. The idea that he had the same good picture of the men that returned at Moat Cailin makes no sense.

Keep in mind that Roose would already have had about 5,000 men simply by adding the Frey contingent to his own men, not counting the men Lady Barbrey, Ramsay, and the Ryswells assembled in the North, and not counting the Umber levies and the Manderlys at Winterfell, either. And neither the Cerwyn, Tallhart, and Hornwood men that are later at Winterfell, too.

If Theon had said 6,000-7,000 men your reasoning would make sense. But he doesn't do that.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Broadly, I'm afraid your explanation for what happened to the 600 men at the Trident doesn't make sense. And is not really relevant to the bigger issue either way. Theon says there are 20% of 20k men with Roose at Moat Cailin. Roose had 3500 men at the Twins. There are 600 men waiting directly on his route back to the North. It fits the evidence that he picked them up again.

Some of his own might have died, though. And he may have given command to not kill any Bolton/Dustin/Ryswell men in Robb's army who weren't in on the plot. Some of them might have died anyway, defending their fellow Northmen from the Freys (who wouldn't have cared all that much) but we can be reasonably sue that Roose made it perfectly clear that he would not suffer it if anybody killed any of his mounted retainers who had remained with Robb.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lady Dustin herself says that she had men die at the Twins. She refers to how the Hornwood men feel about what happened to their Lady. Same with how doubtful the Cerwyn loyalty is. So Roose clearly included those men despite their questionable loyalty, because he had the support of the Iron Throne, the Lannisters and the Freys at the time.

That is talk about the men at Winterfell. Nobody said anything about them returning home with Roose. Later on he included them among him men, but that doesn't mean they were with him since the Twins.

Some few might have returned from there. Once the butchering was over they would have not continued to kill the men. However, it would have been very few men indeed. Not enough to ever dare to oppose Roose or become problems.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The most simple solution is that he added the 600 ford guards to his 3500 on the way back. Why try and complicate it beyond that?

Why would those loyal Stark men want to join the traitor who had killed their king? It makes little sense. It is much more likely that they dispersed.

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not necessarily true. We only know that some Barrowton men died at the Twins. But we don't know if all of them died. Robb Stark did split up the armies at the Twins. If Barrowton and Ryswell men remained with Robb's cavalry then they wouldn't have been part of the Red Wedding. And neither would have been Roose's horsemen who remained with Robb throughout the entire war, by the way.

The idea that Roose took the men with him he rid himself before because he could not trust them makes little sense. It is much more likely he picked up some Karstark men on the way up to the Twins (from those men who abandoned Robb at Riverrun) if we assume he didn't have all that many left.

And again, if we go with 4,000 Bolton men returning then Theon's 5,000-6,000 men at Winterfell don't make all that much sense. Theon had more than enough time to get a pretty good picture of the men assembled at Barrowton and later Winterfell due to his long walks among the castle, the food they were eating, and so forth. The idea that he had the same good picture of the men that returned at Moat Cailin makes no sense.

Keep in mind that Roose would already have had about 5,000 men simply by adding the Frey contingent to his own men, not counting the men Lady Barbrey, Ramsay, and the Ryswells assembled in the North, and not counting the Umber levies and the Manderlys at Winterfell, either. And neither the Cerwyn, Tallhart, and Hornwood men that are later at Winterfell, too.

If Theon had said 6,000-7,000 men your reasoning would make sense. But he doesn't do that.

Some of his own might have died, though. And he may have given command to not kill any Bolton/Dustin/Ryswell men in Robb's army who weren't in on the plot. Some of them might have died anyway, defending their fellow Northmen from the Freys (who wouldn't have cared all that much) but we can be reasonably sue that Roose made it perfectly clear that he would not suffer it if anybody killed any of his mounted retainers who had remained with Robb.

That is talk about the men at Winterfell. Nobody said anything about them returning home with Roose. Later on he included them among him men, but that doesn't mean they were with him since the Twins.

Some few might have returned from there. Once the butchering was over they would have not continued to kill the men. However, it would have been very few men indeed. Not enough to ever dare to oppose Roose or become problems.

Why would those loyal Stark men want to join the traitor who had killed their king? It makes little sense. It is much more likely that they dispersed.

Again, this is not relevant to what we are ultimately debating. It doesn't really matter where the additional 500 men came from who swelled Roose's force from 3500 to 4000. Whether they are the 600 from the ford, or remnants of other Northerners, makes no difference to the overall argument. Which is what exactly? Well, it is the following:

There were very few Karstarks in Roose's 3500.

In fact, it is difficult to see where he got any Karstarks from, after the Green Fork, and after sending the rest of their foot off with Harrion to Duskendale. If they are men who dispersed from Riverrun, well, those were cavalry only, so a maximum of 300 Karstarks could have dispersed from there to go search for Jaime, although it was likely less after the losses they must have suffered up to that point. And surely only a fraction of those would have joined up with Roose before the Twins, so you'd be hard pressed to get 100 of those in Roose's 3500. And yet, Roose mentions only Karstarks as a substantial portion of his 3500, other than Boltons. So if the Karstarks only numbered a couple of hundred at most, how small must any other forces have been? A few score each? If any?

And if Roose still had some of his cavalry with Robb, well, that would push his total surviving numbers even higher than 3000.

 

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

We don't have to buy your 4,000 men at Moat Cailin at face value. It could have been more but it could also have been much less men. If I tell you that two tenths of this or that is remaining then you should not assume that I did calculate things properly. I just made a guess. Just as Theon would have done. And he did not only not know how many men Robb actually had in the beginning nor did he actually count the men. If he had done so he would given us a proper number not just some estimation.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

We don't have to buy your 4,000 men at Moat Cailin at face value. It could have been more but it could also have been much less men. If I tell you that two tenths of this or that is remaining then you should not assume that I did calculate things properly. I just made a guess. Just as Theon would have done. And he did not only not know how many men Robb actually had in the beginning nor did he actually count the men. If he had done so he would given us a proper number not just some estimation.

I don't get this. I really don't.

You're not buying anything from me. We're taking a direct quote from an observer, who was present both when the host marched down the causeway and when it marched back up. The same observer who stated that the Northern host outnumbered Lord Frey's 4000 men 5-1 at the Twins. The same observer who states again in Dance that the host numbered 20k when it marched down, and only 20% of that number when it marched back up.

We know there were 3500 men with Bolton at the Twins. We know there are another 600 men left unaccounted  for, who were conveniently located exactly on their marching path back home, and who would make Theon's observation exactly on the money at Moat Cailin.

Why feel the need to try and dispute all of this evidence? Based on what justification and towards what purpose?

To try and marry it to Theon's statement in Dance that Roose has more than 6000 men? Well, it very easily matches that. Not that it has to in the first place. As we have no idea how many of the men gathered at Moat Cailin and thereafter at Barrowton, ended up continuing to Winterfell as opposed to returning to their home keeps.

You are trying to solve a problem that doesn't need solving. Instead, just go with the evidence and it all ties up perfectly.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't get this. I really don't.

You're not buying anything from me. We're taking a direct quote from an observer, who was present both when the host marched down the causeway and when it marched back up. The same observer who stated that the Northern host outnumbered Lord Frey's 4000 men 5-1 at the Twins. The same observer who states again in Dance that the host numbered 20k when it marched down, and only 20% of that number when it marched back up.

We know there were 3500 men with Bolton at the Twins. We know there are another 600 men left unaccounted  for, who were conveniently located exactly on their marching path back home, and who would make Theon's observation exactly on the money at Moat Cailin.

Why feel the need to try and dispute all of this evidence? Based on what justification and towards what purpose?

To try and marry it to Theon's statement in Dance that Roose has more than 6000 men? Well, it very easily matches that. Not that it has to in the first place. As we have no idea how many of the men gathered at Moat Cailin and thereafter at Barrowton, ended up continuing to Winterfell as opposed to returning to their home keeps.

You are trying to solve a problem that doesn't need solving. Instead, just go with the evidence and it all ties up perfectly.

No one is disputing any evidence, not me, not Varys. He simply points out given infos aren't exact figures, just as i have pointed out and tried to show with those extensive calculations.

For disputing evidence, again there is no evidence being disputed, but you are simply refusing to see the numbers aren't that correct, they are estimations and roundings.

For the 600 hundred men, they were not on his path back home, they were located way more south. They may have linked up later on or they may have stayed there or dispersed or simply planning what will they do next after Roose butchered their fellow northmen and king. And they'd obviously know something has happened, word reached north of moat cailin, why not south? Plenty of bodies floating in the river should make them suspect of something and for all we know they may have found Rollam Westerling just like BWB has found Catelyn.

Theon's account is very vague, judging by it, it's possible they are with Roose but also possible that they are not.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No one is disputing any evidence, not me, not Varys. He simply points out given infos aren't exact figures, just as i have pointed out and tried to show with those extensive calculations.

For disputing evidence, again there is no evidence being disputed, but you are simply refusing to see the numbers aren't that correct, they are estimations and roundings.

For the 600 hundred men, they were not on his path back home, they were located way more south. They may have linked up later on or they may have stayed there or dispersed or simply planning what will they do next after Roose butchered their fellow northmen and king. And they'd obviously know something has happened, word reached north of moat cailin, why not south? Plenty of bodies floating in the river should make them suspect of something and for all we know they may have found Rollam Westerling just like BWB has found Catelyn.

Theon's account is very vague, judging by it, it's possible they are with Roose but also possible that they are not.

Corvo

I don't think anyone disputes that figures are rounded. Every number in the books above a hundred is likely rounded. I just think that you seem to have a preference to see figures as rounded up rather than down.

The most likely scenario for Theon's reference to 2 in 10 out of 20k, is that Roose had the 3500 men from the Twins + whichever of his cavalry returned from the West with Robb + the 600 at the ford, resulting in a few hundred men above 4000 in total, and not a round 4000. For all we know it was 4219 or some such figure. But we use the rounded 4000 as the number given, because we have no way of knowing the exact number.

That is the reasonable way to assess it.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Corvo

I don't think anyone disputes that figures are rounded. Every number in the books above a hundred is likely rounded. I just think that you seem to have a preference to see figures as rounded up rather than down.

The most likely scenario for Theon's reference to 2 in 10 out of 20k, is that Roose had the 3500 men from the Twins + whichever of his cavalry returned from the West with Robb + the 600 at the ford, resulting in a few hundred men above 4000 in total, and not a round 4000. For all we know it was 4219 or some such figure. But we use the rounded 4000 as the number given, because we have no way of knowing the exact number.

That is the reasonable way to assess it.

Here are a few rounded up numbers just off the top of my head, I'll try to make the quotes word for word but do not have all the pages at hand so forgive some little mistakes but the important bit, the given numbers and the way they are given are the same.

"Twelve thousand men or near enough as makes no matter" Maester Luwin.

"How many men does your brother have? Twenty thousand? I have four times as many here." Renly to Catelyn.

"I'll call your numbers five thousand and it'd be generous" Renly to Stannis. "I have a hundred thousand men" Renly to Stannis.

"A hundred thousand Dothraki screamers." Pono is said to be 30k, Jhaqo 20k. Cohollo is dead.

All these are rounded up as you can see and there are many more like these. I do not deny there are instances of rounding down but rounding up is more prevelant.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

You cannot just take the numbers prior to the Red Wedding and then assume that Roose didn't lose any men during the butchery. They killed thousands of men in that night, and Lord Walder lost men, too. The idea that Roose didn't lose any doesn't make much sense.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

You cannot just take the numbers prior to the Red Wedding and then assume that Roose didn't lose any men during the butchery. They killed thousands of men in that night, and Lord Walder lost men, too. The idea that Roose didn't lose any doesn't make much sense.

Since we know how many Freys were lost, we have to guess a similar number of Boltons/Karstarks were lost. That's a "rough" incredibly high death total of 50.

[direpupy]

18 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Corvo

I don't think anyone disputes that figures are rounded. Every number in the books above a hundred is likely rounded. I just think that you seem to have a preference to see figures as rounded up rather than down.

The most likely scenario for Theon's reference to 2 in 10 out of 20k, is that Roose had the 3500 men from the Twins + whichever of his cavalry returned from the West with Robb + the 600 at the ford, resulting in a few hundred men above 4000 in total, and not a round 4000. For all we know it was 4219 or some such figure. But we use the rounded 4000 as the number given, because we have no way of knowing the exact number.

That is the reasonable way to assess it.

Roose his cavalary did not go with robb, 1/5 of the cavalary stayed with the foot for the purpose of scouting and covering the flanks of the battleline. since Roose was in charge the foot it was most likely his cavalary that stayed with him, supplemented by some freeriders and hedgeknights which we know he had because he left some of those with the 600 men at the ruby ford latter on.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, direpupy said:

Roose his cavalary did not go with robb, 1/5 of the cavalary stayed with the foot for the purpose of scouting and covering the flanks of the battleline. since Roose was in charge the foot it was most likely his cavalary that stayed with him, supplemented by some freeriders and hedgeknights which we know he had because he left some of those with the 600 men at the ruby ford latter on.

We don't know that. The wiki says only 1/10th of the Stark horse stayed with Roose. That equals about 600 cavalry, if the Frey cavalry is included in the total Stark host. If Roose had 3000 men of which 25% were cavalry, he had 750 cavalry, which is already more than the 600 that stayed with the Stark foot. Plus we know there were Manderly knights in that 1/10th too, as they were trapped by Gregor south of the ford.

So it seems likely that at least some Bolton horse might have accompanied Robb in the West.

[direpupy]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We don't know that. The wiki says only 1/10th of the Stark horse stayed with Roose. That equals about 600 cavalry, if the Frey cavalry is included in the total Stark host. If Roose had 3000 men of which 25% were cavalry, he had 750 cavalry, which is already more than the 600 that stayed with the Stark foot. Plus we know there were Manderly knights in that 1/10th too, as they were trapped by Gregor south of the ford.

So it seems likely that at least some Bolton horse might have accompanied Robb in the West.

The 1/5 was from the top of my hat so it could well be 1/10, but even if that is true then that still does not mean that there was bolton horse left to go with robb since we are never told how much of Roose Bolton's force was horse, we are actually never told how many men he brought at all.

But if we look at a house we do have such numbers for the karstarks bring 2000 foot and 300 horse that means that only 13% of there entire force is horse. So 13% of 3000 (If we assume Roose brought 3000 to begin with) is 390 horse less then number that stayed with the foot.

And then there is the fact that a large if not they entire force of 600 bolton men ramsay uses in the battle of winterfell are horse since they are described as, constantly weeling and charging Rodric's men to prevent them from forming up in a battleline. So a lot of Roose his horse seems to have stayed behind in the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, direpupy said:

The 1/5 was from the top of my hat so it could well be 1/10, but even if that is true then that still does not mean that there was bolton horse left to go with robb since we are never told how much of Roose Bolton's force was horse, we are actually never told how many men he brought at all.

But if we look at a house we do have such numbers for the karstarks bring 2000 foot and 300 horse that means that only 13% of there entire force is horse. So 13% of 3000 (If we assume Roose brought 3000 to begin with) is 390 horse less then number that stayed with the foot.

And then there is the fact that a large if not they entire force of 600 bolton men ramsay uses in the battle of winterfell are horse since they are described as, constantly weeling and charging Rodric's men to prevent them from forming up in a battleline. So a lot of Roose his horse seems to have stayed behind in the North.

This discussion is now going full circle.

We have spent a lot of time discussing how the overall 25% heavy cavalry ratio of the Winterfell force means that to compensate for the low Karstark cavalry, as well as the likely low Mountain Clan and Mormont heavy cavalry, the other Houses gathered there would likely have needed to contribute MORE than 25% heavy cavalry each.

So the cavalry argument leans more towards favouring an even LARGER Bolton strength than a smaller one. Especially considering the Bolton cavalry held back at the Dreadfort. Because if Bolton contributed 25% cavalry out of 3000 men at Winterfell, and if he still had close to 600 cavalry back at the Dreadfort, it takes his overall cavalry numbers well above 1000, closer to 1300. Which would take his overall strength to beyond 5000. Which is still not ruled out, by the way.

I just choose to be more conservative and limit him to 4000 in the absence of further information.

 

[direpupy]

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This discussion is now going full circle.

We have spent a lot of time discussing how the overall 25% heavy cavalry ratio of the Winterfell force means that to compensate for the low Karstark cavalry, as well as the likely low Mountain Clan and Mormont heavy cavalry, the other Houses gathered there would likely have needed to contribute MORE than 25% heavy cavalry each.

So the cavalry argument leans more towards favouring an even LARGER Bolton strength than a smaller one. Especially considering the Bolton cavalry held back at the Dreadfort. Because if Bolton contributed 25% cavalry out of 3000 men at Winterfell, and if he still had close to 600 cavalry back at the Dreadfort, it takes his overall cavalry numbers well above 1000, closer to 1300. Which would take his overall strength to beyond 5000. Which is still not ruled out, by the way.

I just choose to be more conservative and limit him to 4000 in the absence of further information.

 

as far as i know the ratio of cavalary in the northern forse was 20% not 25 and even if some houses had more then 20% of there force as horse the Boltons need not be one of them.

as a matter of fact it would make far more sence for the Ryswell's to contribute a higher amount of horse since they actually breed the damn animels, and with the barrowlands looking like good pasture it may be the same for house Dustin. Hell Lady Barbery Dustin would need an excuse for sending as little men as she could, and "i can not gather my foot fast enough to send them to you in time so i am only sending you my horse" is a pretty good excuse.

Having said that i do believe that about 3000 of the 3500 men he has with him at the twins are Bolton men, the point i was trying to make was that there probably was no Bolton horse with Robb to be part of the 500 or so men that fill it out to the ~4000 men theon speaks of as being brougth back to the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

39 minutes ago, direpupy said:

as far as i know the ratio of cavalary in the northern forse was 20% not 25 and even if some houses had more then 20% of there force as horse the Boltons need not be one of them.

as a matter of fact it would make far more sence for the Ryswell's to contribute a higher amount of horse since they actually breed the damn animels, and with the barrowlands looking like good pasture it may be the same for house Dustin. Hell Lady Barbery Dustin would need an excuse for sending as little men as she could, and "i can not gather my foot fast enough to send them to you in time so i am only sending you my horse" is a pretty good excuse.

Having said that i do believe that about 3000 of the 3500 men he has with him at the twins are Bolton men, the point i was trying to make was that there probably was no Bolton horse with Robb to be part of the 500 or so men that fill it out to the ~4000 men theon speaks of as being brougth back to the North.

Fair enough. I note your position.

Just to point out that the 25% heavy cavalry ratio was for the force gathered at Winterfell, before any of the more southerly Houses joined. So it was before the addition of the Ryswells, Dustins, Manderlys, Lockes, Slates, Flints of Widows Watch, Flints of Flints Finger and Reeds.

A realistic assessment of the Houses gathered at Winterfell makes it very difficult to give the powerful Boltons a lower than 25% heavy cavalry ratio.