who planned the Riot in Kings Landing?

[Hugorfonics]

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Of course. He is the master of whispers and is extremely good at his Job. He knows what is up 

OK cool

21 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

You are thinking too narrowly. The actions of Varys are to destabilize the Lannister rule, not specifically the riot. 

Ok. Are they? The actions of Varys destabilized Aerys' rule too. Varys wants Aegon, who has been waiting on Illyrios plans his whole life, I guess before then too. Varys doesn't want competent Stannis on the Throne or King Robb with powerful alliances.

 

28 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

. That was a byproduct of the war, Joffs rule and Cersei's incompetent regency.  Arya hears the convo between varys and Illyrio about how Varys is working to pit the wolves and Lions against each other, but events are moving out of his control as Ned will learn the truth about Bob's bastards and Cat has taken the imp prisoner. Varys needs to stall the war so Drogo can move across the narrow sea. 

So yes, flea bottom burned, Tyrek is missing/dead but the small folk now hat the king even more.  

Agreed. Joffrey and Cersei acted like themselves at the wrong time.

But Drogos dead. And this conversation of a game of two; they're in the midst of the war of five kings. If the crowd hurt Cersei or Joffrey or Tyrion then Varys' goal would be harder.

Fleasbottom burns, who cares? Tyrion burns it anyway.

Tyrek is missing. Where is he? He's not in uncharted land like Benjin, he's in the most populated area being looked for by countless men.

Small folk hate em, who cares? Fickle lot, and inconsequntial in politics.

37 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

 You are right, he is not a coward. But his spider persona is one of silks and perfumes and not a fighter. He never carries weapons in his spider persona so he would have no way to defend himself if the crows turned ugly. Everyone would protect the king and the Lannisters. the only reason why Sansa was rescued was her use as a bargaining chip against Robb, so they could keep Jaime alive. 

 

Word. Only a madman would choose to be in that situation, or Sandor. Like you say, even Sansa almost died, hence Jaime. This is just convincing me more Varys set it up, or if not had his agents among the crowd.

[Dorian Martell]

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ok. Are they? The actions of Varys destabilized Aerys' rule too. Varys wants Aegon, who has been waiting on Illyrios plans his whole life, I guess before then too. Varys doesn't want competent Stannis on the Throne or King Robb with powerful alliances.

Varys didn't destabilize Aerys' rule. He was quite effective at his Job. Varys doesn't want a competent ruler. He kills Kevan and Pycelle for a reason. And back to the convo Arya overheard, Varys didn't want war yet because if a victor was decided too early, they would be able to consolidate their power in the realm and fight off an invasion by the horse lords.
At this point, I do not think that Illyrio is Daemon's heir. I know it is a popular theory here but that's my opinion. 

7 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Agreed. Joffrey and Cersei acted like themselves at the wrong time.

But Drogos dead. And this conversation of a game of two; they're in the midst of the war of five kings. If the crowd hurt Cersei or Joffrey or Tyrion then Varys' goal would be harder.

Fleasbottom burns, who cares? Tyrion burns it anyway.

 

 Drogo is dead, but (f)Aegon is not, and while Joff is horrible, so is Cersei, and she has a few more heirs if Joff had died, like a pliant Tommen. 
Yes flea bottom burns, and that is important for a whole host of reasons
 

 

11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tyrek is missing. Where is he? He's not in uncharted land like Benjin, he's in the most populated area being looked for by countless men.

Where is he? We don't know. That is what missing means. People are not aware of his fate  or location. As your Jaime quote states, Nobody has found a trace of Tyrek. While Varys might have him, it is also a possibility that his corpse was tossed in the river. 

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Small folk hate em, who cares? Fickle lot, and inconsequntial in politics.

that is what every highborn in the books save Jorah believe. But in feast, we see how the small folk's suffering is something that they can bear for so long. That is why the sparrows took power in the faith. the small folk suffering under the yoke of the lions, the wolves and the storm will be far more likely to accept (f)Aegon.  

19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word. Only a madman would choose to be in that situation, or Sandor. Like you say, even Sansa almost died, hence Jaime. This is just convincing me more Varys set it up, or if not had his agents among the crowd.

Not everything can be a predetermined setup. The thing that makes Varys or Littlefinger so badass is that they can roll with the punches and make the best of situations, even if they don't work out like they wanted. 

[Hugorfonics]

31 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Varys didn't destabilize Aerys' rule. He was quite effective at his Job. Varys doesn't want a competent ruler. He kills Kevan and Pycelle for a reason. And back to the convo Arya overheard, Varys didn't want war yet because if a victor was decided too early, they would be able to consolidate their power in the realm and fight off an invasion by the horse lords.

Then why not warn the Crown? Joffrey Cersei Tyrion Tommen and Jaime could have died, this would quickly consolidate power.

 

34 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Where is he? We don't know. That is what missing means. People are not aware of his fate  or location. As your Jaime quote states, Nobody has found a trace of Tyrek. While Varys might have him, it is also a possibility that his corpse was tossed in the river. 

Then wouldn't his clothing be recovered? Something to trace him

38 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

that is what every highborn in the books save Jorah believe. But in feast, we see how the small folk's suffering is something that they can bear for so long. That is why the sparrows took power in the faith. the small folk suffering under the yoke of the lions, the wolves and the storm will be far more likely to accept (f)Aegon.  

When does Jorah see the benefits in small folk? He urges Dany to ditch them every time he can.

The faith took power because Cersei gave it to them.

41 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Not everything can be a predetermined setup. The thing that makes Varys or Littlefinger so badass is that they can roll with the punches and make the best of situations, even if they don't work out like they wanted. 

If you don't believe Varys took Tyrek, then how did he make the best of the situation?

[Dorian Martell]

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Then why not warn the Crown? Joffrey Cersei Tyrion Tommen and Jaime could have died, this would quickly consolidate power.

the whole point is to not let any one ruler consolidate power. At that point Tywin was the real power and he was in the riverlands.
And there was still Robb and Stannis. Having these three oppose each other keeps the realm unstable and more receptive to (f)Aegon. 

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Then wouldn't his clothing be recovered? Something to trace him

 Reread the Jaime quote. If his killers realized who he is he could have been disposed of. A body could be mutilated, weighed down and dumped in the rush, clothes can be burned. not a guarantee, but a possibility.

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

When does Jorah see the benefits in small folk? He urges Dany to ditch them every time he can.

Who said anything about benefits?  Jorah has a real understanding of the small folk and their lives. Something Joff does not. 
 After Viserys is killed, Dany asks Jorah if he thinks the common people secretly pray the dragon's return to westeros and he says 

“The common people pray for rain, healthy children and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace.”
Highborn ignoring the small folk and their suffering becomes a central theme in the Brienne chapters. 

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

The faith took power because Cersei gave it to them.

You misread what I said, the sparrows took power IN the faith after wandering septons bore witness to the horror and suffering of the small folk in the riverlands. Septon Mirabald tells Brienne that both maidens and septons were put to the sword. Septs were looted for valuables and then burned. whole villages were sacked two and three times depending on who was in power in the area, Wolf or Lion. When enough of them came to KL, they were able to sway the election of the High Septon and elected one of their own. The High Sparrow then set about purging wealth from the Great Sept of Balor. Only after the sparrows took power did Cersei think she could use them and agreed to allow the faith militant in return for the Crown's debt being forgiven

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

If you don't believe Varys took Tyrek, then how did he make the best of the situation?

 He stayed away and lived. Not every action is planned by a schemer/player. Also, this is all possibilities because the reader does not know what happened to him. 

[JonCon's Red Beard]

10 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

Where is he? We don't know. That is what missing means. People are not aware of his fate  or location. As your Jaime quote states, Nobody has found a trace of Tyrek. While Varys might have him, it is also a possibility that his corpse was tossed in the river.

I think he has been mentioned too much for that.

WHATSOEVER, I think people are thinking this backwards. Varys TAKES chances on the way. So, he probably took Tyrek after the boy could have gone missing during the riots. Why? That's the mystery.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

22 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

“The common people pray for rain, healthy children and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace.”

 

I agree with this quote, but, I also think that people overestimate it too much, and I see that precisely be what makes people believe Varys had to do with this.

It's true that the people don't care whose ass is on the Throne as long as is an ass that protect them (that's why many want Aerys back), but at the same time, to pretend they don't care about their leaders at all, it's a bit dismissive of the common folk's opinion.

People from King's Landing had heard the rumours, they know what the Lannisters did in the past and now, they saw them behead Ned in front of a Sept, and they saw how they were being starved. King's Landing didn't need Varys to tell them that the Lannister were a mess: they knew it. They reacted because their leaders were not being what they expected them to be.

The same happened when people say that Varys is behind the High Sparrow. The HS and his movement is something that sprouted after, as you said, the people started to realise that their rulers were more busy fighting each other than protecting them. Considering that one of the basis of a feudal society such as Westeros is the Lord protecting his lands and men, I'd say that they had any right to react. Again, no need for Varys to tell them so. They aren't idiots.

[Ruhail]

Wasnt it because of Renly's plan to starve the city of Tyrell provisions?

[Hugorfonics]

8 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

the whole point is to not let any one ruler consolidate power. At that point Tywin was the real power and he was in the riverlands.
And there was still Robb and Stannis. Having these three oppose each other keeps the realm unstable and more receptive to (f)Aegon. 

Exactly. If the riot got out of hand which it did, the crown would be in danger. And while I agree Tywins powerful, he owes lots of thanks to serving the crown. Hence, if anyone got hurt it would hurt Aegons plans

 

8 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

 Reread the Jaime quote. If his killers realized who he is he could have been disposed of. A body could be mutilated, weighed down and dumped in the rush, clothes can be burned. not a guarantee, but a possibility. 

Granted, its a possibility. I guess so is Drogon disposing of Tyrek, but it's not likely. The dude was on a horse far from the water. 

Why would a bunch of rioters wat to cover theyre tracks?

8 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

Who said anything about benefits?  Jorah has a real understanding of the small folk and their lives. Something Joff does not. 

 After Viserys is killed, Dany asks Jorah if he thinks the common people secretly pray the dragon's return to westeros and he says 

“The common people pray for rain, healthy children and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace.”
Highborn ignoring the small folk and their suffering becomes a central theme in the Brienne chapters. 

I thought you did. I said small folk are inconsequential in politics, you said Jorah disagrees.

I've always thought Highborn ignoring smallfolks was the central theme to asoiaf.

8 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

 

You misread what I said, the sparrows took power IN the faith after wandering septons bore witness to the horror and suffering of the small folk in the riverlands. Septon Mirabald tells Brienne that both maidens and septons were put to the sword. Septs were looted for valuables and then burned. whole villages were sacked two and three times depending on who was in power in the area, Wolf or Lion. When enough of them came to KL, they were able to sway the election of the High Septon and elected one of their own. The High Sparrow then set about purging wealth from the Great Sept of Balor. Only after the sparrows took power did Cersei think she could use them and agreed to allow the faith militant in return for the Crown's debt being forgiven

And I still blame Cersei. She murdered the HS, thus a Sparrow could take office. She allowed the Sparrows to seek shelter in KL, making money off the tolls.

 

8 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

He stayed away and lived. Not every action is planned by a schemer/player. Also, this is all possibilities because the reader does not know what happened to him. 

I feel like we're going in circles.

 

8 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

 

[Dorian Martell]

19 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

I think he has been mentioned too much for that.

WHATSOEVER, I think people are thinking this backwards. Varys TAKES chances on the way. So, he probably took Tyrek after the boy could have gone missing during the riots. Why? That's the mystery.

I agree that he has been mentioned a lot, but he has been gone for three books. I have a feeling he will be like Hiroko in the mars books. Just a mystery

19 hours ago, JCRB's Honeypot said:

I agree with this quote, but, I also think that people overestimate it too much, and I see that precisely be what makes people believe Varys had to do with this.

It's true that the people don't care whose ass is on the Throne as long as is an ass that protect them (that's why many want Aerys back), but at the same time, to pretend they don't care about their leaders at all, it's a bit dismissive of the common folk's opinion.

People from King's Landing had heard the rumours, they know what the Lannisters did in the past and now, they saw them behead Ned in front of a Sept, and they saw how they were being starved. King's Landing didn't need Varys to tell them that the Lannister were a mess: they knew it. They reacted because their leaders were not being what they expected them to be.

The same happened when people say that Varys is behind the High Sparrow. The HS and his movement is something that sprouted after, as you said, the people started to realise that their rulers were more busy fighting each other than protecting them. Considering that one of the basis of a feudal society such as Westeros is the Lord protecting his lands and men, I'd say that they had any right to react. Again, no need for Varys to tell them so. They aren't idiots.

The quote is there to illustrate the disconnect between the highborn and lowborn. It isn't that varys "told them" in a literal sense, but he was banking on the kingdom wide strife having the effect it had, and that was driving the small folk to actively want for different rulers.  

[Dorian Martell]

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Granted, its a possibility. I guess so is Drogon disposing of Tyrek, but it's not likely. The dude was on a horse far from the water. 

Why would a bunch of rioters wat to cover theyre tracks?

People still remember the last time Tywin rolled into KL in a bad mood. 

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I thought you did. I said small folk are inconsequential in politics, you said Jorah disagrees.

I've always thought Highborn ignoring smallfolks was the central theme to asoiaf.

It is a central theme, and it is starting to play out, That is why there is a Sparrow as the high septon

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

And I still blame Cersei. She murdered the HS, thus a Sparrow could take office. She allowed the Sparrows to seek shelter in KL, making money off the tolls.

I can see that. She did set the stage for the Sparrows election, but the root cause that the sparrows are mobilizing around began with the war of the 5 king. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

Bernie and/or the Mexicans, obviously. They're pulling the strings whenever protesters are involved, even fictional ones. 

[Hugorfonics]

7 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

People still remember the last time Tywin rolled into KL in a bad mood. 

I guess. But Tywin was not near KL during the aftermath of the riot.

7 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

It is a central theme, and it is starting to play out, That is why there is a Sparrow as the high septon

I suppose

7 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

I can see that. She did set the stage for the Sparrows election, but the root cause that the sparrows are mobilizing around began with the war of the 5 king. 

Or Hugor Hill doing something racist. The Sparrows are not good people. Broken Men, akin to outlaws, only difference is they have a boss.

 

7 hours ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Bernie and/or the Mexicans, obviously. They're pulling the strings whenever protesters are involved, even fictional ones. 

Some people just don't want to make Kingslanding great again

[forod]

LF planned it, but by that I mean he made sure a riot that was bound to happen at some point happened at a time that suited him. This fits two common themes in ASOIAF; the underrated power and significance of the smallfolk, and the hidden power-players, controlling everything from a far. There's a lot of evidence for LF being responsible, not Varys. 

Firstly, Santigar is killed, which was an important loose end for LF to tie up because of what he knew. More importantly, Preston Greenfield is killed. His death opens up a spot for Loras, which makes the Tyrell-Baratheon-Lannister alliance more probable and secure, which means LF gets more credit and is more likely to be given Harrenhal, which allows him to marry Lysa and so on and so forth. 

What is more, is that when LF goes to Highgarden, the men he takes discuss the details of the riot with the Tyrell men at arms. LF and his men were out of the city when it happened, and chronologically these discussion happened quite a short time after the riot. Under the fairly safe assumption LF was not made aware by royal raven - Tyrion et al went to various lengths to stop information of the conditions in KL leaving the city - this shows us LF must have known at least some of what was going to happen, and implies at the least knowledge of the riot itself. 

Having said all of that, I feel that is all that was planned by LF. Even though he, and Varys, have links to some of the other events that occurred, I believe they are evidence of the importance of the smallfolk. The fates of Tyrek and Lollys demonstrate the power of the lowborn over the high, and the death of the High Septon is an early piece of foreboding of how important the gods are to the smallfolk. That may sound contradictory, as they killed him, but he was viewed as corrupt, privileged and as betraying the gods, rather than serving them. While he was an appointment of Tyrion, and therefore a potential target of LF's, he was ripped apart by a mob, not murdered by one or two men. This really implies his death was the result of public outrage and spontaneous violence, not a planned assassination. 

As for Sansa, I would say mostly the same, though it is hard to be sure. LF would have nowhere to take her at that time, and was preoccupied so could not deal with things himself. So it would seem, especially due to the near-rape, that he did not orchestrate that detail either.