Its clear that Loras went to an empty Dragon Stone

[Jadakiss]

Again just cause he said he would, does not mean he ever would. He just wanted to appease Cersei. There is no reason for him to go do that and risk his life or his mens life for a meaningless cause. Mace or any of the Tyrells wouldnt do that. Loras and them do not benefit at all from getting dragon stone....... I asked to give one legit reason as to why Loras or the Tyrells would go to dragon stone and risk losing any of their forces, while their home land is getting attacked by iron born, and all that you came up with is that he volunteered to

 

@targloyalist2       that actually is an interesting point I can get on board with. I do feel that if a siege actually did happen that there would have least been a chapter on it. Or at least one eye witness account in detail. There was two books (which had some very slow pace) where it still wasn't shown. Like you said that is a weak defense for the theory in general but it still adds something

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

47 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

Again just cause he said he would, does not mean he ever would.

Correct. 

48 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

I asked to give one legit reason as to why Loras or the Tyrells would go to dragon stone and risk losing any of their forces, while their home land is getting attacked by iron born, and all that you came up with is that he volunteered to

You asked for a reason why Loras would go to Dragonstone. I gave you the reason that George gives us in Feast. Recall I wrote this:

On 12/30/2016 at 8:17 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

In A Feast for Crows the reason is that if Loras were able to end the siege by taking Dragonstone then Redwyne's fleet could then leave to meet the Ironborn. 

This post was in response to your question asking "Please give me one logical reason as to why Loras would do Dragon Stone like he is Cerseis work dog."

So I gave you the reason George gives us in Feast. This is not, of course, saying he actually went. This is simply a logical reason from the text to why he would go.

 

 

56 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

and all that you came up with is that he volunteered to

This has nothing to do with the reason why Loras would go. You'll recall I wrote this:

"Where are you reading that this was Cersei's bidding? When I read this:

Quote

Cersei cut him off. “Storm’s End is a hundred times more valuable than the Shields, and Dragonstone … so long as Dragonstone remains in the hands of Stannis Baratheon, it is a knife at my son’s throat. We will release Lord Redwyne and his fleet when the castle falls.” The queen pushed herself to her feet. “This audience is at an end. Grand Maester Pycelle, a word.”

The old man started, as if her voice had woken him from some dream of youth, but before he could answer, Loras Tyrell strode forward, so swiftly that the queen drew back in alarm. She was about to shout for Ser Osmund to defend her when the Knight of Flowers sank to one knee. “Your Grace, let me take Dragonstone.”

Loras volunteered to go. Cersei never told him to.

Debating whether he went or not is great. There are a lot if reasons to believe he never went. But in the text we are given a logical reason and this reason was Loras' doing, not Cersei's."

I asked you why you feel he was "doing Cersei's bidding" because from the text it is clear that Cersei never asked him to go. Loras asked if he could go. 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

They weren't Tyrell men for the most part either. The Redwyne men were already there. The host he leads is 2000 westermen, the composition and size of which had been adjudged by one Cersei Lannister. Paxter wants to starve (maybe mine I can't recall) dragonstone, which ties up the Redwynes indefinitely. Loras wants to expedite the process by storming the castle, which is exactly the same thing we see Jaime and his war council talk about at length with similar duration preferences (lack of food and fodder for Jaime). 

So the motivation of Loras is pretty airtight as far as I can tell. He's throwing Lannister loyalists and manpower at a problem that is indirectly weakening his own powerbase and family prestige. Assuming he doesn't get mortally hurt and DS is seized, then it's pretty much a best case scenario. His brothers can only react to IB reaving until Paxter gets back, and they can utterly destroy (ostensibly) the IB when the fleet returns.

[Jadakiss]

Use your head tho. Why would he volunteer to go rush a meaningless castle to get in the good graces of someone that is in a dungeon and has no power. Why would he risk losing any men for something of no value. While his home land is being attacked.

If you tie everything together with Aurane Waters giving that bs story its pretty easy to see. grrm picked a bullshitter to tell cersei for a reason. There is no reason the tyrells would send men to rush a castle when they are getting raped and pillaged on their home land. Kind of just repeating some of the stuff that many people already went over that have had no explantion

Another use brought up how Miranda made a comment that dragon stone still held for stannis... add that with stannis telling rolland storm to mine the dg. He will mine it and then go to the wall where its needed, stannis has no use of dragon stone, neither does loras or any of the tyrells

Numerous people have brought up about 10 diff things about Mace Tyrell that if put all together it is laid out pretty easy. He knows Loras is fine and that he wouldnt go do some idiot mission for no reason at all... other then he said he would.. why would he agree to do that for cersei? she has nothing of value to give him in return, she is currently stripped of all power. he told her what she wanted to hear to appease her

I will settle with at least knowing a good chunk of the people in this thread have their blinders off

[maudisdottir]

Loras volunteered in Cersei's chapter.  Are you saying that didn't happen?

You really need to stop insulting other posters for disagreeing with you, particularly as your only "evidence" is to ignore quotes from the books and to keep telling everyone else they can't read/comprehend.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

3 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

Use your head tho. Why would he volunteer to go rush a meaningless castle to get in the good graces of someone that is in a dungeon and has no power. Why would he risk losing any men for something of no value. While his home land is being attacked.

If you tie everything together with Aurane Waters giving that bs story its pretty easy to see. grrm picked a bullshitter to tell cersei for a reason. There is no reason the tyrells would send men to rush a castle when they are getting raped and pillaged on their home land. Kind of just repeating some of the stuff that many people already went over that have had no explantion

Another use brought up how Miranda made a comment that dragon stone still held for stannis... add that with stannis telling rolland storm to mine the dg. He will mine it and then go to the wall where its needed, stannis has no use of dragon stone, neither does loras or any of the tyrells

Numerous people have brought up about 10 diff things about Mace Tyrell that if put all together it is laid out pretty easy. He knows Loras is fine and that he wouldnt go do some idiot mission for no reason at all... other then he said he would.. why would he agree to do that for cersei? she has nothing of value to give him in return, she is currently stripped of all power. he told her what she wanted to hear to appease her

I will settle with at least knowing a good chunk of the people in this thread have their blinders off

Serious question... Do you read what other people post?

I'm not arguing that he went to Dragonstone. I was only pointing out the logical reason (you asked for) that George gives us in Feast for IF Loras did go. Then I pointed out to you that Loras volunteered to go, it was not "Cersei's bidding" as you call it. 

[sweetsunray]

About Loras volunteering: the scene itself is not a parallel to that of Loras volunteering to arrest Gregor. An argument is brewing between Margaery and Cersei right there and then.

First Cersei and her lickspittle council parroting her respond to Margaery's announcement of Willas's words openly with doubt to the truth of the message.

Next they're parotting Cersei's ridiculous idea that Stannis is behind it, that it is meant as a diversion of the "real" prize, Dragonstone. And she insults them by calling the Shield Islands mere "rocks", refusing to relieve Mace Tyrell's forces from ceasng their siege on Storm's End. Dragonstone and Storm's End can be dealt with any time, only garisonned by reserves, mere symbols, not even holding Stannis. She talks contemptuously about Margaery's brothers, telling they should roust the Ironborn of those "rocks" while denying them forces and ships, saying they ought to fight the Ironborn with pleasure barges, ferries and skiffs. She calls the Mander a "stretch of little water". And then she ends the meeting, giving them nothing.

Now there's a shift in this scene originally from Margaery trying to rouse the council about the news, speaking like a queen, while this hardens Cersei. Meanwhile Cersei clearly insults common sense and the queen's homelands and family, provoking Margaery. Loras intervenes, not just verbally but physically. He lays his hand on Margaery's shoulder and starts to reason with Cersei, also talking less entitled than Margaery. It's clear that Loras has grown up a notch and realizes that Margaery's queenly manners to the council and especially Cersei can only backfire. And he takes a different approach. But to no avail. Cersei keeps insulting the Reach, his family and basically mocks them with her "I give you leave to hire sellships/pirates" and then ends further discussion, declaring Dragonstone and Storm's End far more important, and totally behaving as if she's actually a queen on the throne.

That's when Loras volunteers to take Dragonstone. This is the response of a man able to adapt to different strategies to accomplish his goal, though here he had his back against the wall by Cersei's stonewalling the issue. And the reason why Cersei accepts is because Margaery goes pale with fright over it.

Loras's wording is very interesting though. "The castle will be yours within a fortnight if I have to tear it down with my bare hands." Nowhere does he actually "say" that's his plan. He's using hyperbole here. But Pycelle then presents it as Loras's plan to storm the walls to Cersei to wn glory and fame, which Cersei also takes as meaning because she wants it to happen, wants it to come true.

But in light of Loras' courteous reasoning while not overlooking Cersei's slighting of the Reach and his brothers and intervention between the row growing between Margaery and Cersei, it's quite clear that Loras has learned to use his words far more wisely and is quick to realize he might achieve more by flattering Cersei. That's not a scene of a young man volunteering for glory and fame as Pycelle presents it, but volunteering and knowing how to achieve his end - free the Redwyne Fleet ASAP to fight the Ironborn. Rather it should be taken as "I'll use whatever strategy that frees the Redwyne fleet", and the fastest way to achieve that would be a negotiation of surrender but allowed Stannis's garrison and castellan to take the mined obsidian North with them.

Logistics: the troops are already on Dragonstone at this point. No extra troops or ships are sent. Cersei only commands Aurane to send Loras to Dragonstone on the galley Sweet Cersei. So, while an issue can be raised over Aurane's whole fleet not able to keep silent in KL, we're actually only talking about one crew of Sweet Cersei. Aurane hired new young men for his fleet, most who are likely unknown to the people that matter at King's Landing. It would be no biggie whatsoever to switch crews. The crew on Sweet Cersei might just as well be Redwyne's. Heck they might be Dragonstone men. These men would certainly be motivated to keep silent. Who in KL would know or tell the difference? Nobody, not when Aurane also comes with the news that 1000 of the Lannister forces at Dragonstone are dead, a very convenient bit of news if you wish to avoid Lannister troops being recalled and tell another story. And according to Aurane those aren't common men, but the knights and young lords.

So, we're talking about

• the crew of only 1 ship, that was originally newly hired by Aurane from unknown men, who could have been transferred or exchanged between Redwyne and Aurane, or switched with Velaryon men.
• a 1000 Lannisters that won't be recalled, most of them knights and young lords.

Where did the other thousand go? And if those 1000 knights and lords weren't killed in battle where are they? Well, it seems to me that Loras as commander could have split the forces in half and telling half of them to sail with Paxter Redwyne to fight the Ironborn, especially since Cersei deprived the Reach also from Mace's troops that besiege Storm's End. What we have here is a tit-for-that. "If you won't allow Reach forces to defend their homelands, then I'll send Westerlands' finest to war the Ironborn instead". Those knights and lords won't have any reason to second guess such a command, since after all Cersei made Loras commander at Dragonstone after Paxter Redwyne (also of the Reach) AND sent Loras along with her naval Admiral, who could corroborate Loras' claim if he wished it. So, basically those 1000 of the finest Westerland knights and young lords are imo sailing for the Arbor and Oldtown, having no inkling that Cersei wouldn't like that at all and believing themselves to be following Tommen's wishes and their queen's (Margaery). The rest of them are levied common men and they remain at Dragonstone. Aurane takes all of his crew, including the sole witnesses of Sweet Cersei away from KL before the return of Mace and Randall.

Finally, Margaery also sent her maester to Dragonstone after learning about Loras's supposed fate. This places a maester loyal to the Tyrells at Dragonstone, and thus a Tyrell loyal communicator.

Aurane's piracy: it's rather quaint that Cersei gives Loras's brothers leave to hire sellships, which Loras calls "pirates". And then somehow Aurane sails off with the entire KL fleet to install himself as a pirate at the Stepstones. Is he looking to be "hired"?

The mining of obsidian: Aurane mentions how Paxter had men dig tunnels to get beneath the walls of Dragonstone. Meanwhile we know that Stannis ordered his castellan to mine for obsidian. It seems to me that Aurane just made up the tunneling story to provide for an explanation why Dragonstone has been tunneled, if anyone is sent by the crown to go and have a look. Mace's later story that the troops at Dragonstone have been "digging for treasure" beneath Dragonstone only is an extra cover up of the true reason why there was any sort of mining activity at Dragonstone. By the time that Mace is at the council, he seems to be in on the ruse, because the "there's no treasure to be found at Dragonstone" seems a very convenient "so don't send anyone there to snoop around, and without using the same term, Mace basically makes Dragonstone out to be nothing more than a wet, dreary "rock". But then Kevan himself calls her a "daughter of the Rock" and says he means to send her back there. Mace can have been informed through Margaery's maester sent to Dragonstone long before.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Snipped

Yes.

Well written.

[Protagoras]

Sometime a cigar is just a cigar.

Loras is a very emotional man, who isn´t scheming that much (apart from a switched rider) and acted on impulse when he took the task. He was transported to Dragonstone to lead the troops already there, who most likely saw his bravery (or can witness that its a lie). And he hasn´t been really well since the death of Renly, I think he went into it thinking that he had nothing to lose and took huge risks to himself, resulting in the result and description Cersei is told.

Aurane waters might not be loyal to Cersei but why lie on something that he has no benefit of and which can lead back to him? Alliance with the Tyrells? Naah, personally I think he will join Aegon.

Spoiler

And he has declared himself a pirate king in WoW. Why do that if he is in cahoots with the Tyrells?

And I am not surprised that Stannis hasn´t recieved any news. The North seems to be the place that get all news the latest. And considering the weather, there are less travel and less possible sources than normal. And Kevan repeats the wounded Loras story, and he clearly havn´t gotten his news from Aurane, who was at sea when Kevan returned. And there are loads with soldiers and sailers who could have told us if Dragonstone hadn´t been captured or if Loras is really unhurt, yet no one have come forward.

I mean, it sounds repetitive if everyone lies to Cersei in creative ways. And if the Knight of Flowers is secretly kept alive, what's the point? What exactly are the advantage of screwing with Cersei, saying that he is worse hurt than he is? What do the Tyrells gain? When Kevan took power they basically got everything they wanted. And if the idea is to mess with the kingsguard, then why not say that he is dead? Or if he want to defend Margaerys trial then why didn´t she pick combat instead of being tried by the judges. This conspiracy (Both the Loras is unharmed-conspiracy and the Dragonstone was never taken-conspiracy) makes no sense.

[sweetsunray]

32 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Loras is a very emotional man, who isn´t scheming that much (apart from a switched rider) and acted on impulse when he took the task.

Making a decision quickly is not the same as actong on impulse. The previous conversation with Cersei shows he's not in an impulsive state at all. He's the sole one who manages to keep his emotions under control and reason.

32 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

He was transported to Dragonstone to lead the troops already there, who most likely saw his bravery (or can witness that its a lie).

Of whom we have not received any witness reports at all, only Aurane's and hearsay. And supposedly all the Westerland witnesses of some status are dead.

 

32 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Aurane waters might not be loyal to Cersei but why lie on something that he has no benefit of and which can lead back to him?

Aurane who had an entire fleet built and manned by his own choice of men and took the whole fleet away with him. And this man you suppose to care of being scared that he might be exposed to have lied to Cersei? Cersei has weakened herself: she believes flattery and what she wants to see, and the council around her are cowards who lick ass, nor are they the brightest bulbs either. Jaime's not in KL, Kevan's MIA, Devan's in the Riverlands. 

[bent branch]

1 hour ago, Protagoras said:

Sometime a cigar is just a cigar.

Loras is a very emotional man, who isn´t scheming that much (apart from a switched rider) and acted on impulse when he took the task. He was transported to Dragonstone to lead the troops already there, who most likely saw his bravery (or can witness that its a lie). And he hasn´t been really well since the death of Renly, I think he went into it thinking that he had nothing to lose and took huge risks to himself, resulting in the result and description Cersei is told.

Aurane waters might not be loyal to Cersei but why lie on something that he has no benefit of and which can lead back to him? Alliance with the Tyrells? Naah, personally I think he will join Aegon.

  Hide contents

And he has declared himself a pirate king in WoW. Why do that if he is in cahoots with the Tyrells?

And I am not surprised that Stannis hasn´t recieved any news. The North seems to be the place that get all news the latest. And considering the weather, there are less travel and less possible sources than normal. And Kevan repeats the wounded Loras story, and he clearly havn´t gotten his news from Aurane, who was at sea when Kevan returned. And there are loads with soldiers and sailers who could have told us if Dragonstone hadn´t been captured or if Loras is really unhurt, yet no one have come forward.

I mean, it sounds repetitive if everyone lies to Cersei in creative ways. And if the Knight of Flowers is secretly kept alive, what's the point? What exactly are the advantage of screwing with Cersei, saying that he is worse hurt than he is? What do the Tyrells gain? When Kevan took power they basically got everything they wanted. And if the idea is to mess with the kingsguard, then why not say that he is dead? Or if he want to defend Margaerys trial then why didn´t she pick combat instead of being tried by the judges. This conspiracy (Both the Loras is unharmed-conspiracy and the Dragonstone was never taken-conspiracy) makes no sense.

I want to point out that you have said that Aurane is not in cahoots with Tyrells while at the same time saying that Aurane's lie is the same as the Tyrells lying to Cersei. I will agree with you that Aurane did what he did for his own reasons. However, his lie does not mean the Tyrells (any of them) are lying to Cersei. I think it is really important to separate what Aurane told Cersei from what the Tyrells are telling. It may actually be the same thing, but we don't know that yet.

At this point we don't even know that Aurane actually lied. That is merely the speculation of some people (including me). I think one of the reasons that discussion on this topic is all over the place is that Aurane's story is treated as both the truth and a lie by most people. I think everyone needs to pull back a little and ask themselves if they think Aurane told the truth or not. If they think Aurane lied, why do they believe any part of his story. I'm not saying that none of what Aurane said was true, but if you think he lied, then you need to logically justify each part of his story that you are going to accept as true. I hope this makes sense.

 

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, bent branch said:

For example, there may not be 1,000 missing men. All of the men may still be alive on Dragonstone.

Well they can be missing AND alive.

But IF Aurane lied about 1000 men (mostly knights and young lords and most of those Westerlands), then what is the most logical use of that lie? It seems to me that such a lie serves Aurane and others in that neither Cersei nor Kevan can recall them from Dragonstone anymore. So, why wouldn't you want to have them recalled? You cuold argue "just to keep them on Dragonstone", but then those knights and young lords themselves would begin to feel like prisoners if they have nothing to do. Why refrain from using close to 1000 knights and lords agains the Ironborn. It's no secret that Paxter sailed for the Reach and had the crown's permission to do so. It was however very unlikely that Cersei would have allowed the use of Westerland troops for this, especially since those knights and lords haven't gotten a clue that Cersei is working against the Tyrells with first Paxter and then Loras as commander at Dragonstone.

[bent branch]

58 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well they can be missing AND alive.

But IF Aurane lied about 1000 men (mostly knights and young lords and most of those Westerlands), then what is the most logical use of that lie? It seems to me that such a lie serves Aurane and others in that neither Cersei nor Kevan can recall them from Dragonstone anymore. So, why wouldn't you want to have them recalled? You cuold argue "just to keep them on Dragonstone", but then those knights and young lords themselves would begin to feel like prisoners if they have nothing to do. Why refrain from using close to 1000 knights and lords agains the Ironborn. It's no secret that Paxter sailed for the Reach and had the crown's permission to do so. It was however very unlikely that Cersei would have allowed the use of Westerland troops for this, especially since those knights and lords haven't gotten a clue that Cersei is working against the Tyrells with first Paxter and then Loras as commander at Dragonstone.

One reason Aurane may have thrown in that about half the men dying is that if you have a battle there has to casualties, right? Aurane may have said 1000 men died for nothing more than making a better story. Although I do believe Aurane was lying, it is impossible to know what parts of the story were true or false until we get independent verification.

[sweetsunray]

19 minutes ago, bent branch said:

One reason Aurane may have thrown in that about half the men dying is that if you have a battle there has to casualties, right? Aurane may have said 1000 men died for nothing more than making a better story. Although I do believe Aurane was lying, it is impossible to know what parts of the story were true or false until we get independent verification.

That's half the Westerlands troops that were sent to Dragonstone to besiege it. You're not just going to tell the queen half the troops she sent are dead as an embellishment lie, especially if you also stipulate that it were the knights and young lords of the Westerlands.

They're not just an amalgam of Crownlands, Stormlands and Reach that once were Stannis's or Renly's. He's talking about the noblemen and trained fighters of the Westerlands in particular. Men that Cersei could especially rely on to be loyal to Tommen and her both in battle and politically.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 1/3/2017 at 8:10 PM, Jadakiss said:

Use your head tho. Why would he volunteer to go rush a meaningless castle to get in the good graces of someone that is in a dungeon and has no power. Why would he risk losing any men for something of no value. While his home land is being attacked.

If you tie everything together with Aurane Waters giving that bs story its pretty easy to see. grrm picked a bullshitter to tell cersei for a reason. There is no reason the tyrells would send men to rush a castle when they are getting raped and pillaged on their home land. Kind of just repeating some of the stuff that many people already went over that have had no explantion

Another use brought up how Miranda made a comment that dragon stone still held for stannis... add that with stannis telling rolland storm to mine the dg. He will mine it and then go to the wall where its needed, stannis has no use of dragon stone, neither does loras or any of the tyrells

Numerous people have brought up about 10 diff things about Mace Tyrell that if put all together it is laid out pretty easy. He knows Loras is fine and that he wouldnt go do some idiot mission for no reason at all... other then he said he would.. why would he agree to do that for cersei? she has nothing of value to give him in return, she is currently stripped of all power. he told her what she wanted to hear to appease her

I will settle with at least knowing a good chunk of the people in this thread have their blinders off

Look, I'll be honest, everything you're insulting me with, please look in the mirror. This is so overwrought on your part it's getting embarrassing.

1) Why would he rush a meaningless castle? Well once again, it's not meaningless. His home is being threatened. His uncle's land is completely overrun by the IB. Oldtown itself is being threatened, and he's worried about his immediate family. You can tell because he says 

“From strongholds on the Shields, raiders can sail up the Mander into the very heart of the Reach, as they did of old. With enough men they might even threaten Highgarden.”

He's not risking any of his men. They are Lannister men. We know this because Jaime tells us this:

“As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne’s fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone.”

He doesn't care if he wastes them, and once again we have no idea if Loras actually led the assault. I mean, where would he get the idea to dress up in someone in his armor. In fact you assertion that Aurane is a shyster -- agreed on by all in this thread -- merely underlines exactly why Loras didn't lead the assault. The only matter of debate is whether Loras could keep the story of an empty DS from thousands of soldiers and sailors or merely dress up someone else in secret as himself and let "himself" be sacrificed. One is virtually impossible (yours). The other isn't (conventional theory). Loras being actually injured but not as severely is of course a very likely option, in fact even more likely than the decoy (imo).

2)  Sigh. See above. The Tyrells have every reason to send other men to die for their benefit, especially if the Tyrells don't particularly want to be allies with those men.

3) Why is Stannis mining the obsidian? Oh is it because of the WW? Yes yes it is. Is Stannis going to be able to arm the realm with one shipment of obsidian? Is that a no? Oh okay it makes perfect sense to abandon the only known source of obsidian then!

It makes perfect sense for Stannis to want DS and perfect sense for the Tyrells to seize it (to save their home and incomes).

4) Numerous people have also said that the moon landings didn't happen -- spoiler they did. Their points neither make complete sense nor make a coherent storyline. Loras in KG. He's not his father's to command absolutely, and if anything Loras' status as his favorite son gives him leeway in decision making. Factor that in with Mace being 500 miles away, well you can see why Mace's opinion was neither sought after nor listened to.

You keep arguing in circles with arguments that make little sense. I don't particularly care about your beliefs, but don't use circular logic to reinforce your points. It doesn't work. You keep ignoring perfectly valid reasons laid out by both the books and other users. You don't have to believe them personally just acknowledge that, yeah maybe they have some wait. The basic book narrative is actually highly functional. The ideas brought forth in this thread are heavily plausible for the most part. I do not include yours in my assessment.

[bent branch]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That's half the Westerlands troops that were sent to Dragonstone to besiege it. You're not just going to tell the queen half the troops she sent are dead as an embellishment lie, especially if you also stipulate that it were the knights and young lords of the Westerlands.

They're not just an amalgam of Crownlands, Stormlands and Reach that once were Stannis's or Renly's. He's talking about the noblemen and trained fighters of the Westerlands in particular. Men that Cersei could especially rely on to be loyal to Tommen and her both in battle and politically.

You could be right. However, I think Aurane was already planning to scarper and even the dense Cersei had a moment's hesitation about Aurane. AFFC-Chapter 36:

Quote

"Your Grace is kind," said Waters with a smile. A wicked smile, the queen thought. Aurane did not resemble Prince Rhaegar as much as she had thought. He has the hair, but so do half the whores in Lys, if the tales are true. Rhaegar is a man. This is a sly boy, no more. Useful in his way, though.

It was at this point I suspected what Aurane was telling Cersei. He let slip enough of his disdain that even Cersei felt the edges of it. Unfortunately, we haven't actually heard anyone else's story yet so there is no way to know how close to the truth Aurane's story was.

And it also seems clear to me that Loras in in direct communication with his father, not Kevan. That seems a bit weird to me, but plausible. Anyway, it is hard for me to argue the details since the only thing I feel strongly about is that there was no battle. All of the details around that are wide open since we only have Aurane's story at this point.

[sweetsunray]

40 minutes ago, bent branch said:

And it also seems clear to me that Loras in in direct communication with his father, not Kevan. That seems a bit weird to me, but plausible.

Margaery sent her maester to Dragonstone after Cersei told her the "happy" news (Taena mentions this to Cersei, and so it's probably afterwards that Margaery can be set up to ask for Moon Tea with Pycelle. And even then the first time he mentions it, he's not allowed to complete his sentence).

It's doubtful that ravens are sent from Dragonstone to KL by Margaery's maester, but there are several castles nearby in the crownlands that could be set up as a communication post with a courier. Two castles we know are now in the hands of someone not befriended to Cersei - Rosby and Stokeworth.

[sweetsunray]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Oh okay it makes perfect sense to abandon the only known source of obsidian then!

It makes perfect sense for Stannis to want DS and perfect sense for the Tyrells to seize it (to save their home and incomes).

And yet, Stannis claims DS will fall soon. He expresses the sentiment that he doesn't believe that he could keep DS. He ordered his castellan to mind "as much" as possibel before it "falls". That implies the readiness to abandon the castle. This is textual evidence from Stannis's own lips that he is not motivated to keep DS at all cost. You are ascribing a motivation to Stannis he already revealed not to have. 

1 shipment of obsidian is still better than 0 shipments of obsidian.

[black_hart]

While this is an intriguing idea, and Aurane is indeed a liar, what about the character of the protagonist of this unlikely story:

 

Jaime, who lost a battle and his whole host due to being impetuous in his 30s, is comparing Loras to his younger (even more self-assured, impetuous) self.

When Renly was dead, Loras slew some of his peers in the Rainbow guard in blind rage.

When he meets Brienne bloodshed is only averted by Jaime, afair.

His sister, who may know a little about him and his temper, is visibly afraid by the prospect of Loras leading an assault.

When we see him deceptive, choice of mounts in the Tourney of the Hand, he does so in a particularly careless manner provoking the most dangerous man present into an attack that might as well maim or kill him.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, black_hart said:

While this is an intriguing idea, and Aurane is indeed a liar, what about the character of the protagonist of this unlikely story:

 

Jaime, who lost a battle and his whole host due to being impetuous in his 30s, is comparing Loras to his younger (even more self-assured, impetuous) self.

When Renly was dead, Loras slew some of his peers in the Rainbow guard in blind rage.

When he meets Brienne bloodshed is only averted by Jaime, afair.

His sister, who may know a little about him and his temper, is visibly afraid by the prospect of Loras leading an assault.

When we see him deceptive, choice of mounts in the Tourney of the Hand, he does so in a particularly careless manner provoking the most dangerous man present into an attack that might as well maim or kill him.

And yet this impetuous man manages to calmy reason with Cersei while she throws insult after insult about his brothers and lands of the Reach.

I agree that we are originally given the image of an impulsive teen as Loras's character. The restraint and calm reasoning he does in front of Cersei - while to him Margaery would be queen, not the mother of the king - could easily be waved off as OOC if we hadn't been a witness to it. But we do witness it. He acts and talks neither impetuous nor arrogantly in that scene at all. Something changed.

What could have brought that about? First, there is the loss of the love of his life. Tragedy, grief and loss does things to us. It can destroy us and make us more wreckless, or it can do the opposite. Then Loras meets with Brienne and faces the fact that the one he blamed didn't do it and how he's poersonally responsible of slaying his fellow Rainbow Guards. The scene between Loras and Cersei makes clear that Loras learned something from it all. He is not the glory seeking young man in the throne room anymore as he was before Ned Stark. He has become a man who may be quick on his feet, but also far more insightful and realistic than he was before. He behaves far more responsible, not for his own glory, but to protect his sister, to make a king and man out of Tommen, and possibly to make a new king altogether (He probably read up on Cole in the White Book as Jaime advized him to, and if he is beginning to take him as his new example, then we can easily deduce Loras would end up paralleling Cersei to Rhaenyra Targaryen).

George also hints at a change of Loras through Jaime, who on the one hand recognizes his young self in Loras but also that he could be a great man worthy of the book and tells Cersei that the white cloak changes a man.

You're not allowng a teen to grow up through his mistakes and experiences. How fast did young JonCon change after the Battle of the Bells and learning of Rhaegar's death? Within a few years he pretended to be dead (from drink) and chose to raise a toddler on a boat.

I taught teens of 15 that pulled the blood from under my nails and were a constant source of conflict and aggrevation, but who I had marvelous adult conversations with at 18 when they graduated. They're actually the ones who keep in contact with me and let me know what they're up to in life. Teens become adults and between 15 and 18 they change a lot.