Who is the True Targaryen Heir?

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

As Lord Varys has mentioned Danaerys is indeed the Targaryen heir if you would count it from that direction, with Aerys II naming Viserys and Viserys naming Danaerys heir. To that also comes, as Protagoras pointed out, that Danaerys has three dragons so should be able to "prove" divine providence in regards to her right to be seen as the foremost Targaryen around. All in all legitimacy and symbolism would be on Danaerys' side. Now this has seldom been enough to win the throne but its a rather clear boost to the propaganda machine of the Mother of Dragons in regards to those people looking for a Targaryen to support. Naturally provided that Danaerys does arrive soon. If Aegon can win victories an potentially claim the Iron Throne itself, that will make wonders in building a name for himself, regardless of legitimacy.

Well, it is quite obvious that Aegon is going to take the Iron Throne first, and he has been set up to be adored by the masses. So when Daenerys arrives, she is going to be up against all of Targaryen-supporting Westeros. I don't see any reason why any Tararyen sympathists will switch sides from the noble, likeable and heroic Aegon, to join Daenerys, especially if she arrives with hordes of Dothraki and slave soldier Unsullied freaks in her retinue.

So she will be up against Aegon, who will have Westerosi support pretty much united under him. And then we will have the second Dance of the Dragons. Which Daenerys will win of course, thus taking the throne by force.

And one can't help but think of the old saying, two dogs fighting over a bone and a third walking away with it. As it so happens, there is a third Targaryen heir, and his identity is likely to only be revealed after the first two have finished squabbling over the Throne.

It just seems very probably that he will then leapfrog both the previous claimaints to the Throne. The detail of how this happens is what will be so interesting to read about, of course.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My assessment is that the War for the South is going to be messy, bloody and devastating for all concerned. Since the West and Riverlands are largely viewed as subdued/leaderless at the moment, I don't see them significantly involved - if at all - in Aegon's campaign. Neither the Vale, who has been kept aside for a purpose when the time is right, and not to expend their carefully preserved strength in a useless campaign to briefly install Aegon as King.

I don't know when the West is going to enter the game again - could be sooner (if some of the Lannisters back in the West decide to do something) or later (if Cersei doesn't get back there all that quickly) - however, the Riverlands are about to explode right now, and there are two POVs there right now. And again, there still are Targaryen loyalists in the Riverlands, and not just among the lords but among the smallfolk as well. Remember what murders the Brotherhood laid at Sandor's feet back in ASoS? The deaths of Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys.

If I were taking my lands and castles back from the Lannisters and Freys with rather brutal tactics of murder and slaughter (to be expected at Riverrun, Darry, the Twins, etc.) I would be looking for allies who would support me in this. Because the West isn't spent at all. If Cat and company brutally butcher Genna and her children (and possibly Daven and his armies, too) then this is going to provoke a reaction in the West. They won't let that stand.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So Aegon's war will involve Dorne, the Stormlands, the Reach and the Crownlands. Of course, it will be a threefold war, also involving Euron's campaign in the distant South. The eventual winner will of course be Aegon, with Euron either being defeated by him, or still hanging around as a threat by the time Dany arrives.

I don't think Aegon is set as the winner there. Aegon certainly will play an important role but - again - I don't predict anything. Just look how Stannis lost on the Blackwater or Robb got gutted at the Twins. Aegon certainly could lose against Euron - then Dany would have to fight only Euron if she arrives rather late.

I see little reason for Aegon's campaign to involve the Reach in any meaningful way. He takes Storm's End, and there he will face the Tyrell army descending on him. That will decide his fate. If he wins, he will take KL thereafter, if he loses he is most likely going to die. But he has no reason to actually go into the Reach, at least not until he has the Iron Throne. And when he has then his campaign will essentially be over. Once Tommen and Myrcella are dead the Tyrells will fall in line. After all, they can need Aegon's help against the Ironborn.

The Riverlords and the Vale will have to decide whether they will acknowledge the new Targaryen king or oppose him - and why on earth would they oppose him? Honestly, why shouldn't Sansa or Edmure, or anybody in the Riverlands or the Vale oppose Aegon? They have no good reason to do this.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Then, when Daenerys arrives, it will be Aegon, with the full support of Dorne, the new rulers of the Reach, the Stormlands and whatever forces the Crownlands can raise, against Daenerys's foreign hordes. I estimate that Aegon will easily be able to raise 20k men from Dorne, 50k from the Reach and say 20k from the Stormlands, giving him a force approaching 100k just from those regions. This will be one side of the Dance, with Dany and her foreigners representing the other side.

That doesn't make much sense. Euron is certainly going to reduce the strength of the Reach, or occupy forces in various places, greatly reducing the strength the Reach could muster to counter a foreign invasion. Dany is not going to land at the coast of Reach.

The Stormlands certainly don't have a 20,000 men left, at least not after Aegon's battles on their soil.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If the Starks are back in power by this time, along with their vassals the Tullys, and their allies in the Vale, they can keep their Northern Alliance out of this petty dynastic squabble. I don't expect Jon's identity to be revealed at this point. Instead, the Northern Alliance will band together out of mutual familial and loyalty ties, and stay out of the Dance of the Dragons.

The Riverlords can't do that. They are far too close KL. They will have to show their colors long before Dany arrives or any form of order is established in the North. Not to mention, again, they won't be able to marshal an army to do defend themselves against either Dany or Aegon. In fact, they will need the help of the Crownlands and the Reach soon enough to get through winter. That alone should convince to bend the knee to Aegon.

In addition, we have the fact that Harrenhal is right now in the hands of Ser Bonifer Hasty and his Holy Hundred. He was in love with Princess Rhaella once, and is likely to follow both his Targaryen loyalty and the High Septon (I'm pretty sure he will soon join the Warrior's Sons with his Holy Hundred, greatly strengthening the power of the Faith Militant in the Riverlands), leading the Riverlands into Aegon's camp.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Then, when Dany and Aegon have devastated the South, Dany will gain supremacy of the southernmost part of Westeros, leaving the Northern faction as a powerblock facing her now relatively devastated southron block. Most likely, the two factions will be fairly evenly balanced, at which point Tyrion - the obvious link between Daenerys and Jon, will play matchmaker to unify the two regions.

It is just not likely that the South will ever get as devastated and powerless as the Riverlands and the North are right now. They did not only use a lot of manpower but also a lot of provisions - while similar things might happen in the other regions, the people there will simply not starve as long as the people in the North and the Riverlands, leading to them remaining much stronger in comparison to the North and the Riverlands.

Not to mention that Dany is likely going to bring a huge army of her own with her to Westeros, something that's only going to work if she also captured a lot of food in the Free Cities/Essos (else they would not survive the journey), completely changing the balance of power in Westeros. Dany will have her own men, the men that arrive with her in Westeros, and whatever people declare for her or are subdued by her.

Even if the North, the Riverlands, and the Vale would 'unite' against her, they would be a pitiful bunch.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By this time, the Others will be raising corpses all across Westeros, meaning that unity comes already too late, but at least humanity will finally awaken to the existential threat facing it. And then the final battle, and the bittersweet ending, with Dany dying and Jon taking over as the Targaryen on the Iron Throne - a role he will accept out of duty, and not out of choice.

If the corpses were raising all over the place then the Others will win in a few days. That's not going to work.

14 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

As Lord Varys has mentioned Danaerys is indeed the Targaryen heir if you would count it from that direction, with Aerys II naming Viserys and Viserys naming Danaerys heir. To that also comes, as Protagoras pointed out, that Danaerys has three dragons so should be able to "prove" divine providence in regards to her right to be seen as the foremost Targaryen around. All in all legitimacy and symbolism would be on Danaerys' side. Now this has seldom been enough to win the throne but its a rather clear boost to the propaganda machine of the Mother of Dragons in regards to those people looking for a Targaryen to support. Naturally provided that Danaerys does arrive soon. If Aegon can win victories an potentially claim the Iron Throne itself, that will make wonders in building a name for himself, regardless of legitimacy.

Dragons certainly were seen as signs. Aenys becoming a dragonrider quieted the rumors that he wasn't the Conqueror's seed, two dragons hatching when Aenys I made Maegor his Hand was seen as sign of good fortune, Rhaenyra's sons claiming three dragons of their own helped quench those Strong rumors (although they never quieted completely, of course). The fact that the egg of Viserys II never hatched was also seen as a bad omen, and so on.

But, of course, such signs never win wars. But if Dany shows up and is the first to present living fire-breathing dragons to Westeros then people most certainly will be inclined to worship. Dragons are very much associated with the ruling dynasty of Westeros, and a symbol of power and strength. Who, if not the Mother of Dragons, will restore peace and prosperity to this war-torn kingdom?

[Chaircat Meow]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Aegon is set as the winner there. Aegon certainly will play an important role but - again - I don't predict anything. Just look how Stannis lost on the Blackwater or Robb got gutted at the Twins. Aegon certainly could lose against Euron - then Dany would have to fight only Euron if she arrives rather late.

Dany might marry Euron actually. One of her bride of fire visions(corpse smiling sadly on the ship's prow) seems to pertain to him

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, it is quite obvious that Aegon is going to take the Iron Throne first, and he has been set up to be adored by the masses.So when Daenerys arrives, she is going to be up against all of Targaryen-supporting Westeros. I don't see any reason why any Tararyen sympathists will switch sides from the noble, likeable and heroic Aegon, to join Daenerys, especially if she arrives with hordes of Dothraki and slave soldier Unsullied freaks in her retinue.

You forget that Aegon is a false savior. He might not remain the golden boy of Westeros for long. And he does not have to be killed or defeated by Daenerys. Just as Stannis is most likely not going to be killed/defeated by her (although one should never say never in this series).

I agree that he will take the Iron Throne but how long he can hold it - and whether he can hold it long enough for Dany to take it from him - remains to be seen.

And you should keep in mind that the prophecies you are reciting refer to Daenerys. She is the Slayer of Lies, she is the one who is going to end the squabbling over her throne, not Jon Snow. Especially if you go with the symbolic interpretations of the dwarfs abusing the women as it being Westeros and the would-be kings.

2 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Dany might marry Euron actually. One of her bride of fire visions(corpse smiling sadly on the ship's prow) seems to pertain to him

With ADwD establishing Euron as the greatest threat to Daenerys and him actually not being in Slaver's Bay at this point (and Dany out in the Dothraki Sea where she could actually find herself another consort) I find this a rather unlikely scenario. Not completely impossible, of course, but pretty unlikely.

Euron already has a bride waiting from him in KL - Cersei. If they team up, they really could set the world afire. And once Euron learns that Dany is either dead or gone - as all people in west will learn in time - he will have to settle for the second best option. Cersei is not going to give him dragons but instead all the gold of Casterly Rock and Lannisport, and (possibly) the might of the Lords of the West as an army on land.

[Chaircat Meow]

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

With ADwD establishing Euron as the greatest threat to Daenerys and him actually not being in Slaver's Bay at this point (and Dany out in the Dothraki Sea where she could actually find herself another consort) I find this a rather unlikely scenario. Not completely impossible, of course, but pretty unlikely.

Euron already has a bride waiting from him in KL - Cersei. If they team up, they really could set the world afire. And once Euron learns that Dany is either dead or gone - as all people in west will learn in time - he will have to settle for the second best option. Cersei is not going to give him dragons but instead all the gold of Casterly Rock and Lannisport, and (possibly) the might of the Lords of the West as an army on land.

I imagine they will marry when Dany comes closer to Westeros, perhaps meeting on Dragonstone.  So, it is not going to happen in the first half of Winds.

However, on account of the Aeron gift-chapter, we have good reason to believe

Spoiler

Aeron represents the corpse on the ship's prow.

I find that very strong evidence some kind of marriage will happen. Dany might be forced into it, to a degree, or it might be a more genuine alliance (Euron might control a dragon at the time). The prophecies suggest Dany will find Aegon and Stannis ruling the south and north respectively when she comes to westeros, and hint that she will defeat them both (slayer of lies). If a theory I have seen just recently is true, and the stone beast breathing shadow fire (the final lie) is Bran, she might play some role in discovering he is still alive. This may hint at a potential Stark-Targ alliance.

So, my brief sketch of events is that:

Aegon + Arianne defeat Cersei and win over the south.

Dany makes an alliance with the Ironborn, marrying Euron.

Dany and Euron defeat Aegon + Arianne (slayer of lies 1)

Dany and Euron defeat Stannis (slayer of lies 2)

At some point, Dany defeats Euron (maybe with Bran's help - Bloodraven might want a reckoning with him if he is a failed pupil of some kind).

Dany and the Starks end up working together (slayer of lies 3) to defeat the Others.

This means Dany's husbands are Drogo, Euron, Jon and mounts are Silver, Drogon, unknown (maybe an elk ...)

[Lord Varys]

Not sure if Aeron is the corpse. He doesn't stand, he isn't dead, and he doesn't smile sadly as of yet. And I also don't get any Euron vibe in connection to Dany's mounts. She has three mounts to ride - one to bed (Drogo?), one to dread (Drogon?), and one to love (Jon?).

She has three fires to light - one for life (Drogo's pyre, to wake the dragons?), one for death (some fire to kill her enemies among the Dothraki?), and one to love (something she does with dragonfire to save Jon from the Others when they meet?). The later prophecies where she gets the visions only identifies her as 'mother of dragons, daughter of death' (conceived amidst the death caused by Robert's Rebellion and Aerys' madness, and born by her dying mother), 'mother of dragons, slayer of lies (the visions symbolizing Stannis, Aegon, and the stone beast breathing shadow fire - which might be Euron), and then 'mother of dragons, bride of fire' (the first seems to be vision of her first night with Drogo; the corpse really doesn't resemble Euron but he also does not not resemble either Hizdahr nor Daario or even Victarion - I have no idea, really; the blue flower is clearly Jon, and the sweet flower indicating a lot of fun, most likely including the lord's kiss).

But the problematic portion really is the 'bride of fire' thing. Only Jon can reasonably claim to be a consort of fire. Drogo was only devoured by fire, he wasn't fiery himself. The only fiery consort I could see for Dany would be Tyrion. Is he the corpse in the ship? He stood a lot on the ship he was on on the way to Meereen, and he was pretty sad (and might still be dead, in a sense) during the journey. But he doesn't have bright eyes, of course (and neither does Euron).

That is hard nut to crack.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure if Aeron is the corpse. He doesn't stand, he isn't dead, and he doesn't smile sadly as of yet. And I also don't get any Euron vibe in connection to Dany's mounts. She has three mounts to ride - one to bed (Drogo?), one to dread (Drogon?), and one to love (Jon?).

She has three fires to light - one for life (Drogo's pyre, to wake the dragons?), one for death (some fire to kill her enemies among the Dothraki?), and one to love (something she does with dragonfire to save Jon from the Others when they meet?). The later prophecies where she gets the visions only identifies her as 'mother of dragons, daughter of death' (conceived amidst the death caused by Robert's Rebellion and Aerys' madness, and born by her dying mother), 'mother of dragons, slayer of lies (the visions symbolizing Stannis, Aegon, and the stone beast breathing shadow fire - which might be Euron), and then 'mother of dragons, bride of fire' (the first seems to be vision of her first night with Drogo; the corpse really doesn't resemble Euron but he also does not not resemble either Hizdahr nor Daario or even Victarion - I have no idea, really; the blue flower is clearly Jon, and the sweet flower indicating a lot of fun, most likely including the lord's kiss).

But the problematic portion really is the 'bride of fire' thing. Only Jon can reasonably claim to be a consort of fire. Drogo was only devoured by fire, he wasn't fiery himself. The only fiery consort I could see for Dany would be Tyrion. Is he the corpse in the ship? He stood a lot on the ship he was on on the way to Meereen, and he was pretty sad (and might still be dead, in a sense) during the journey. But he doesn't have bright eyes, of course (and neither does Euron).

That is hard nut to crack.

He's lashed to the figurehead, so he'll be presumably standing upright.* So he's standing. I expect he will be dead soon, because the priests/mages lashed to the prows are likely a sacrifice. Greyjoy could equate to grey lips smiling as well, assuming we don't hear Aeron does a kind of death smile. I don't think the vision has to resemble the person themselves, just a thing or event closely associated with the person. Jon doesn't look like a blue flower growing out of a wall of ice, and Drogo doesn't look like a grey horse etc. For Euron, Dany sees the prow of the Silence, his flagship, with his dead brother on it.

I interpret mounts more literally. The silver carried her to 'bed' metaphorically speaking, on her wedding night. A mount to dread will be a dragon, because it spreads fear. Mount to love I would guess is something she will ride when she goes near to Jon (why I suggested an elk). The fire for love could be a pyre for Jon, especially if he is a wight and needs to be burnt or something.

Daughter of death pertains to Rhaegar and Viserys too, so daughter is not literal. I guess it just means she arrived at the position she is in because family died. I think it is a mistake to assume the bride of fire's groom needs to have anything to do with fire himself. 'bride of fire' might mean something more akin to 'fiery bride.' So she will be a bride three (significant times). Drogo must be the vision of the silver anyway, and as you say, he is not fiery. If there does have to be a fire element, and for Drogo it comes from being burnt, Euron has a dragonhorn and dragons breathe fire ...

* well, or nearly upright, depending on how slanted the figurehead is.

 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

He's lashed to the figurehead, so he'll be presumably standing upright. So he's standing. I expect he will be dead soon, because the priests/mages lashed to the prows are likely a sacrifice. 

That certainly is the case but I doubt Aeron will die. They might kill the girl first, and we already got the means how he will escape. They used leather straps to bind him and leather widens when it gets wet - which Aeron and the straps are already getting at the end of the chapter. By the time Euron is going to kill him he might already be mobile enough wiggle free and disappear into the sea. And the Drowned God has protected him once already...

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Greyjoy could equate to grey lips smiling as well, assuming we don't hear Aeron does a kind of death smile. I don't think the vision has to resemble the person themselves, just a thing or event closely associated with the person. Jon doesn't look like a blue flower growing out of a wall of ice, and Drogo doesn't look like a grey horse etc. For Euron, Dany sees the prow of the Silence, his flagship, with his dead brother on it.

But what about the bright eyes? Aeron doesn't have bright eyes. And a man standing isn't a man tied to a prow. And the first and third vision there clearly point to something very closely linked to the person Dany is interacting with. The first was her first night, the third essentially embodies Jon Snow. Aeron as a person would have no direct connecting to Euron whatsoever, and we get a lot of information on the corpse nothing about the ship or the prow. Shouldn't it have at least been red if it was the Silence? And shouldn't we have gotten a description of the prow of the ship?

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I interpret mounts more literally. The silver carried her to 'bed' metaphorically speaking, on her wedding night. A mount to dread will be a dragon, because it spreads fear. Mount to love I would guess is something she will ride when she goes near to Jon (why I suggested an elk). The fire for love could be a pyre for Jon, especially if he is a wight and needs to be burnt or something.

Not sure about that. But the Silver and Drogon certainly to qualify as mounts. The problem with all that is that we really can't be sure that the prophecies actually also refer to stuff that has already happened in ACoK. Could very well be, but it is far from clear. That's why I hardly speculate about the treasons.

And the men she marries certainly also qualify as mounts. She rode Drogo quite publicly, and we certainly have that kind of thing with Daario, too.

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Daughter of death pertains to Rhaegar and Viserys too, so daughter is not literal.

The visions have Viserys, Rhaego, and Rhaegar, so yeah, it is not necessarily. But it is also true in a very literal sense. Men had to die for Aerys to get hard and aroused enough to rape Rhaella and conceive Dany. And then her mother died in childbirth.

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I guess it just means she arrived at the position she is in because family died. I think it is a mistake to assume the bride of fire's groom needs to have anything to do with fire himself. 'bride of fire' might mean something more akin to 'fiery bride.' So she will be a bride three (significant times). Drogo must be the vision of the silver anyway, and as you say, he is not fiery. If there does have to be a fire element, and for Drogo it comes from being burnt, Euron has a dragonhorn and dragons breathe fire ...

There can be many aspects to this but if you take the mounts literally one can also take the bride of fire literally in a sense which means she is going to marry fire. That can also have a lot of different meanings. 

Euron has lost his dragonhorn. Now Victarion and Moqorro play with it, and it might not do what Euron wants it to do. And afterwards it most likely will be seized by Dany's people, eventually ending up in her possession.

And I think the best argument against Dany becoming Euron's bride is 

Spoiler

the shadow-woman from 'The Forsaken.

She is tall. Dany is not tall. Whatever she symbolizes, if she symbolizes more than Aeron's fear of this 'dragon queen' Euron was talking about, it is not Daenerys.

[Chaircat Meow]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That certainly is the case but I doubt Aeron will die. They might kill the girl first, and we already got the means how he will escape. They used leather straps to bind him and leather widens when it gets wet - which Aeron and the straps are already getting at the end of the chapter. By the time Euron is going to kill him he might already be mobile enough wiggle free and disappear into the sea. And the Drowned God has protected him once already...

But what about the bright eyes? Aeron doesn't have bright eyes. And a man standing isn't a man tied to a prow. And the first and third vision there clearly point to something very closely linked to the person Dany is interacting with. The first was her first night, the third essentially embodies Jon Snow. Aeron as a person would have no direct connecting to Euron whatsoever, and we get a lot of information on the corpse nothing about the ship or the prow. Shouldn't it have at least been red if it was the Silence? And shouldn't we have gotten a description of the prow of the ship?

Not sure about that. But the Silver and Drogon certainly to qualify as mounts. The problem with all that is that we really can't be sure that the prophecies actually also refer to stuff that has already happened in ACoK. Could very well be, but it is far from clear. That's why I hardly speculate about the treasons.

And the men she marries certainly also qualify as mounts. She rode Drogo quite publicly, and we certainly have that kind of thing with Daario, too.

The visions have Viserys, Rhaego, and Rhaegar, so yeah, it is not necessarily. But it is also true in a very literal sense. Men had to die for Aerys to get hard and aroused enough to rape Rhaella and conceive Dany. And then her mother died in childbirth.

There can be many aspects to this but if you take the mounts literally one can also take the bride of fire literally in a sense which means she is going to marry fire. That can also have a lot of different meanings. 

Euron has lost his dragonhorn. Now Victarion and Moqorro play with it, and it might not do what Euron wants it to do. And afterwards it most likely will be seized by Dany's people, eventually ending up in her possession.

And I think the best argument against Dany becoming Euron's bride is 

  Hide contents

the shadow-woman from 'The Forsaken.

She is tall. Dany is not tall. Whatever she symbolizes, if she symbolizes more than Aeron's fear of this 'dragon queen' Euron was talking about, it is not Daenerys.

Aeron is by far and away the best candidate for the corpse on the prow we've had. Nothing else comes close. I don't think there is much point debating whether he counts as standing because he's tied. I forgot to mention, Aeron's lips are possibly also discoloured from shade of the evening. You are right, we don't know about the bright eyes: it is hard to report that in your own POV. I don't agree Aeron has nothing connecting him to Euron. Aeron is Euron's brother. He may be one of the first people Euron skinchanged. He's being tortured and likely killed as part of magical sacrifice to bring Euron victory (along with lots of others). He's on the prow of Euron's flagship. So Greyjoy family - skin-changing - blood-magic - The Silence: that's plenty of stuff to sum up Euron. GrrM does each bit of the vision in a line, so it is not reasonable to expect an in depth description of The Silence. The leather stuff I will give you, that may pave the way for an escape, or it may not.

The men she marry could count as mounts, but we already have a 'bride' prophecy, and mounts do not necessarily refer to sexual partners obviously. They could be literal mounts. And mount to dread does seem to point very strongly to a dragon, so ... On the 'bride of fire' business; we actually know one of the husbands is Drogo because the vision of the silver can't mean anything else. So a big connection to fire does not really seem necessary.

We don't know if Euron has lost his horn. And if he has he may get it back. As for the vision of the woman, come on! 

Spoiler

Euron appears as a being more squid than man in the preceding lines, with a face full of tentacles and fathered by a sea monster.

 So if the vision is Dany I think her dream stature can be different to her real height!

 

[Lion of the West]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, it is quite obvious that Aegon is going to take the Iron Throne first, and he has been set up to be adored by the masses. So when Daenerys arrives, she is going to be up against all of Targaryen-supporting Westeros. I don't see any reason why any Tararyen sympathists will switch sides from the noble, likeable and heroic Aegon, to join Daenerys, especially if she arrives with hordes of Dothraki and slave soldier Unsullied freaks in her retinue.

So she will be up against Aegon, who will have Westerosi support pretty much united under him. And then we will have the second Dance of the Dragons. Which Daenerys will win of course, thus taking the throne by force.

And one can't help but think of the old saying, two dogs fighting over a bone and a third walking away with it. As it so happens, there is a third Targaryen heir, and his identity is likely to only be revealed after the first two have finished squabbling over the Throne.

It just seems very probably that he will then leapfrog both the previous claimaints to the Throne. The detail of how this happens is what will be so interesting to read about, of course.

Well, I think that while Aegon certainly has alot of stuff working for him his allies also includes stuff with a good chance to turn people against him. For example his mentor's beef with the Lannisters could work against him given that the Westerlands do seem to hold onto the Lannisters and I would think those guys in the Golden Company wants stuff based on their names. If everyone just surrenders to Aegon, he'll still have to break some eggs.

But like you mention Jon is left, but then again, Jon Snow is known as a bastard and is also been known as a Stark bastard for many years. When you've got two Valyrian looking people known to be identified Targaryens, I don't see Jon Snow getting Targaryen supporter's love. Not to mention that the Others will be a complete joke if Jon can actually first wait out a new Dance, then go south, and still be in place to face the Others. And the main problem with waiting things out is of course that the winner will be known as, well, the winner who can win stuff while the waiting part will be known as, well, sitting things out. Which of these will inspire more confidence should be obvious.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragons certainly were seen as signs. Aenys becoming a dragonrider quieted the rumors that he wasn't the Conqueror's seed, two dragons hatching when Aenys I made Maegor his Hand was seen as sign of good fortune, Rhaenyra's sons claiming three dragons of their own helped quench those Strong rumors (although they never quieted completely, of course). The fact that the egg of Viserys II never hatched was also seen as a bad omen, and so on.

But, of course, such signs never win wars. But if Dany shows up and is the first to present living fire-breathing dragons to Westeros then people most certainly will be inclined to worship. Dragons are very much associated with the ruling dynasty of Westeros, and a symbol of power and strength. Who, if not the Mother of Dragons, will restore peace and prosperity to this war-torn kingdom?

Pretty much so.

Although I do believe that you are wrong in that only Danaerys can restore peace and prosperity. What is needed is for someone, almost anyone who isn't Cersei, to consolidate power and things will slowly turn back to normal. They turned back to normal after every war, even after ;Maegor the Cruel had like six years to torment Westeros, and under King Tommen with Tywin or Kevan as Lord Regent, peace would have returned.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Aeron is by far and away the best candidate for the corpse on the prow we've had. Nothing else comes close. I don't think there is much point debating whether he counts as standing because he's tied. I forgot to mention, Aeron's lips are possibly also discoloured from shade of the evening. You are right, we don't know about the bright eyes: it is hard to report that in your own POV.

But we know that Aeron Greyjoy has black eyes.

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I don't agree Aeron has nothing connecting him to Euron. Aeron is Euron's brother. He may be one of the first people Euron skinchanged. He's being tortured and likely killed as part of magical sacrifice to bring Euron victory (along with lots of others). He's on the prow of Euron's flagship. So Greyjoy family - skin-changing - blood-magic - The Silence: that's plenty of stuff to sum up Euron. GrrM does each bit of the vision in a line, so it is not reasonable to expect an in depth description of The Silence.

Still, the problem there is that Aeron does not symbolize Euron. And a corpse is not a living man. Aeron is still alive at this point. And until we don't know he is going to die it is difficult to say anything more. If he were to live the whole thing would break down completely.

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The men she marry could count as mounts, but we already have a 'bride' prophecy, and mounts do not necessarily refer to sexual partners obviously. They could be literal mounts. And mount to dread does seem to point very strongly to a dragon, so ... On the 'bride of fire' business; we actually know one of the husbands is Drogo because the vision of the silver can't mean anything else. So a big connection to fire does not really seem necessary.

Well, there are so many aspects to this whole 'bride of fire' thing. A fiery bride, a woman eventually going to marry at least one Targaryen (Jon Snow who, as such, would also qualify as a fire guy), a woman whose destiny is being married to fire in metaphoric sense since her fate is blood and fire, as the Targaryen words say.

And with the mounts, well, the meanings there certainly also bleed into each other. Dany rides both her mounts and her men, and there is certainly a sexual undertone to her relationship with Drogon.

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We don't know if Euron has lost his horn. And if he has he may get it back. As for the vision of the woman, come on! 

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Euron appears as a being more squid than man in the preceding lines, with a face full of tentacles and fathered by a sea monster.

 So if the vision is Dany I think her dream stature can be different to her real height!

We actually have no reason to take Aeron's mad dreams as prophecy. The man is forced to drink shade of the evening and Euron plays with his mind. Aeron knows his brother wants the Iron Throne and he is blaspheming against the God (and other gods), and he very afraid of the man. The dreams he has of Euron on the throne, the gods pierced on the throne, and the shadow-woman could actually just be nightmares. Aeron has no idea about Daenerys. She doesn't come up at the Kingsmoot, only thereafter when Euron talks to Victarion. In his talk with Aeron Euron just mentions the dragon queen, so Aeron has essentially no idea what he is talking about.

If the visions were genuine visions of the future one would expect the magic causing them giving pretty accurate portrayals of the people (i.e. an accurate image of Dany).

8 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Well, I think that while Aegon certainly has alot of stuff working for him his allies also includes stuff with a good chance to turn people against him. For example his mentor's beef with the Lannisters could work against him given that the Westerlands do seem to hold onto the Lannisters and I would think those guys in the Golden Company wants stuff based on their names. If everyone just surrenders to Aegon, he'll still have to break some eggs.

Connington wants to end the line of the usurper, not the line of House Lannister. And we will have to wait and see how many Lannisters and Lords of the West actually still care about Cersei or her children.

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Although I do believe that you are wrong in that only Danaerys can restore peace and prosperity. What is needed is for someone, almost anyone who isn't Cersei, to consolidate power and things will slowly turn back to normal. They turned back to normal after every war, even after ;Maegor the Cruel had like six years to torment Westeros, and under King Tommen with Tywin or Kevan as Lord Regent, peace would have returned.

I was speaking about when she finally arrives. Presumably war will continue between the various factions and some dragon queen showing up with living dragons certainly is going to be a sight you don't see all that often. It certainly will be seen as a sign. It is one thing to hear rumors about Dany, and quite another to actually see the dragons. Especially if they have grown much larger by then.

[Chaircat Meow]

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But we know that Aerion Greyjoy has black eyes.

Still, the problem there is that Aeron does not symbolize Euron. And a corpse is not a living man. Aeron is still alive at this point. And until we don't know he is going to die it is difficult to say anything more. If he were to live the whole thing would break down completely.

Well, there are so many aspects to this whole 'bride of fire' thing. A fiery bride, a woman eventually going to marry at least one Targaryen (Jon Snow who, as such, would also qualify as a fire guy), a woman whose destiny is being married to fire in metaphoric sense since her fate is blood and fire, as the Targaryen words say.

And with the mounts, well, the meanings there certainly also bleed into each other. Dany rides both her mounts and her men, and there is certainly a sexual undertone to her relationship with Drogon.

We actually have no reason to take Aeron's mad dreams as prophecy. The man is forced to drink shade of the evening and Euron plays with his mind. Aeron knows his brother wants the Iron Throne and he is blaspheming against the God (and other gods), and he very afraid of the man. The dreams he has of Euron on the throne, the gods pierced on the throne, and the shadow-woman could actually just be nightmares. Aeron has no idea about Daenerys. She doesn't come up at the Kingsmoot, only thereafter when Euron talks to Victarion. In his talk with Aeron Euron just mentions the dragon queen, so Aeron has essentially no idea what he is talking about.

If the visions were genuine visions of the future one would expect the magic causing them giving pretty accurate portrayals of the people (i.e. an accurate image of Dany).

Are you sure they're not grey? GrrM describes grey eyes as black sometimes (which I find odd). Jon's eyes are, iirc, so grey they appear almost black.

I'm pretty happy with Aeron's corpse 'symbolizing' Euron. He doesn't symbolize Euron in the way a blue flower in a wall of ice symbolizes Jon, true. However, the silver under a sea of stars does not necessarily symbolize Drogo in that way either, but it still represents him. The visions are all a bit different.

As for the corpse aspect, I think we can be confident Aeron is not long for the world. The only real question I suppose is whether he escapes and finally drowns, in which case he won't be a corpse on the prow. GrrM seems to give the impression the leather straps will actually tighten as they get wet as well, although that could be a misdirection. I think GrrM has enough POVs in the south for the battle with the Redwyne fleet to be reported, so I don't think we will necessarily have 2 Aeron POVs.

I didn't take Aeron's visions as prophecy myself. However, I disagree we would expect them to accurately represent the future in terms of appearances if they were. Is Euron going to grow facial tentacles? Anyway

Spoiler

Beside him stood a shadow in woman’s form, long and tall and terrible, her hands alive with pale white fire.

It is clear that he actually sees a shadow, and describes it as long. Shadows are obviously deceptive as to the true height of the being that throws them, so I don't think we need to assume the person it represents is actually tall.

[COYStars]

On ‎13‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 5:06 PM, Rippounet said:

Jon is a bastard and shouldn't even be in the line of succession. Rhaegar had no authority to make a second marriage, and he had absolutely no reason to name Jon his heir.

 

On ‎13‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 6:16 PM, Rippounet said:

I think it's an interesting theory, but I find it incredibly annoying when people start talking about it as fact. At this point in time, according to the text, Dany is the legitimate Targaryen ruler. There are several theories that suggest this may not be the case, but absolutely none of them can, or should, be presented as fact.

I find this all very funny. What you're basically saying is, until we know what the scene at the Tower of Joy was all about, we're going to pretend that it didn't happen.

A fact is something that is known to be, or can be proven to be, true. Jon's claim is not yet proven and cannot be stated to be factual - people can believe, and have opinions, but cannot say with certainty that Jon is trueborn. But the text gives us enough clues that we cannot say with certainty that he is not trueborn, either.  And you are therefore peddling theories as fact.  You must find that incredibly annoying.

[Lord Varys]

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Are you sure they're not grey? GrrM describes grey eyes as black sometimes (which I find odd). Jon's eyes are, iirc, so grey they appear almost black.

I just checked Aeron's page on the wiki for reference. The source is ACoK which describes Aeron the following way:

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Tall and thin, with fierce black eyes and a beak of a nose, the priest was garbed in mottled robes of green and grey and blue, the swirling colors of the Drowned God. A waterskin hung under his arm on a leather strap, and ropes of dried seaweed were braided through his waist-long black hair and untrimmed beard.

I see no reason to believe this is any way comparable to the mystery of Jon's eyes (who could very well be revealed to be a very dark purple under certain light conditions just as Aegon's and Daemon II's eyes look different under different conditions) nor do I think George would have described Aeron in this manner if he was supposed to be the corpse on the ship. It is the same book we are talking about here.

And in any case, it is a long shot to assume George had Aeron's story in detail in his head when he wrote the House of the Undying. Stannis is pretty clear, the Mhysa scene, too. But Aegon is just a symbol, just as Jon is. And pretty much nobody knows what the stone beast or the corpse on the ship are supposed to represent if they are symbols, too, comparable to the cloth dragon rather than an actual person. Or the lion in the grass (just the lion from which Dany's fur comes from, or something else).

In fact, one could assume the corpse may have been Aemon. He died on a ship, his eyes were white, and he was very sad that he could not live to reach Daenerys.

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I'm pretty happy with Aeron's corpse 'symbolizing' Euron. He doesn't symbolize Euron in the way a blue flower in a wall of ice symbolizes Jon, true. However, the silver under a sea of stars does not necessarily symbolize Drogo in that way either, but it still represents him. The visions are all a bit different.

Well, even if Aeron was the guy there this still doesn't mean that Euron will be Dany's husband. In fact, it would then more likely that Aeron was the guy. The flower represents Jon, and we would assume that he is meant there, not so much people associated with him - in such a scenario we could speculate that Dany might marry Bran, Rickon, or even Samwell.

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

As for the corpse aspect, I think we can be confident Aeron is not long for the world. The only real question I suppose is whether he escapes and finally drowns, in which case he won't be a corpse on the prow. GrrM seems to give the impression the leather straps will actually tighten as they get wet as well, although that could be a misdirection.

That would make leather behave rather different in Martinworld than it is in our world.

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I think GrrM has enough POVs in the south for the battle with the Redwyne fleet to be reported, so I don't think we will necessarily have 2 Aeron POVs.

If there is no Aeron 2 then the naval battle is not going to shown via POV. The only other POV in the area is Samwell and he is not likely to participate in the battle. There is a small chance that he could be on one of the Hightower ships joining the battle but if so he would not get a pretty good picture of the action.

Only Aeron 2 could give us the buildup for the coming chaos, and that is far from over. Aeron has just been tied to the prow, we are not yet out there in the sea nor are any Redwyne ships yet visible. One expects Aeron 2 to cover events up until the fighting/spell begins, ending either with Aeron being killed (less likely in my opinion) or him getting away. Then Aeron 3 could cover whatever he witnessed of the battle from amidst the sea. 

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I didn't take Aeron's visions as prophecy myself. However, I disagree we would expect them to accurately represent the future in terms of appearances if they were. Is Euron going to grow facial tentacles? Anyway

  Hide contents

Beside him stood a shadow in woman’s form, long and tall and terrible, her hands alive with pale white fire.

It is clear that he actually sees a shadow, and describes it as long. Shadows are obviously deceptive as to the true height of the being that throws them, so I don't think we need to assume the person it represents is actually tall.

It is also a tall shadow. And Dany is not tall. And it doesn't seem to be a literal shadow (i.e. a shadow across the floor or the wall) but rather a shadowy figure. It is also pretty unlikely that Dany would laugh along evilly while Euron kills a lot of gods and people.

Some people seem to think Euron is actually going to transform himself into some sort of supernatural monster by the whole blood sacrifice of holy men spell. I think it will just destroy the Redwyne fleet.

If we see some prophetic aspects in Aeron's visions the chances that he will actually sit the Iron Throne for a time went considerably higher, though. But in such a scenario it doesn't seem likely he is getting there with Dany's help because he doesn't have any dragons in those visions. If he and Dany were working together one would expect to see an echo of that in some genuine visions.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I just checked Aeron's page on the wiki for reference. The source is ACoK which describes Aeron the following way:

I see no reason to believe this is any way comparable to the mystery of Jon's eyes (who could very well be revealed to be a very dark purple under certain light conditions just as Aegon's and Daemon II's eyes look different under different conditions) nor do I think George would have described Aeron in this manner if he was supposed to be the corpse on the ship. It is the same book we are talking about here.

Bright does not have to refer to colour. It can mean flashing, intense, glittering or something like that. The eyes could be bright with reflections of something. I don't think Aeron's eyes are actually black, because that would mean he has no irises. They will be dark brown or grey, and could shine or glisten under the right circumstances.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And in any case, it is a long shot to assume George had Aeron's story in detail in his head when he wrote the House of the Undying. Stannis is pretty clear, the Mhysa scene, too. But Aegon is just a symbol, just as Jon is. And pretty much nobody knows what the stone beast or the corpse on the ship are supposed to represent if they are symbols, too, comparable to the cloth dragon rather than an actual person. Or the lion in the grass (just the lion from which Dany's fur comes from, or something else).

In fact, one could assume the corpse may have been Aemon. He died on a ship, his eyes were white, and he was very sad that he could not live to reach Daenerys.

Well, even if Aeron was the guy there this still doesn't mean that Euron will be Dany's husband. In fact, it would then more likely that Aeron was the guy. The flower represents Jon, and we would assume that he is meant there, not so much people associated with him - in such a scenario we could speculate that Dany might marry Bran, Rickon, or even Samwell.

GrrM won't have known a lot of the details but I believe he will have known who the vision represented and what it was. He knows who the stone beast is too, and the way in which the vision evokes them.

The only reason to assume the corpse is Aemon is if you want to run with the idea that the three visions do not represent three different husbands. And that is something of a stretch. And bright is not synonymous with white.

Look, I get this isn't 100% certain at this stage. However, I think it is very likely. I think you are really reaching with the claim that Aeron can't represent Euron, when we have other people represented in a variety of ways: Drogo by a horse, Aegon by a cloth dragon, Jon by a flower etc. According to your logic we should assume Dany will marry a flower stuck in a wall.

To sum it up. We know each vision is a husband. We know Aeron is quite likely to die soon (becoming a corpse) and that he has been tied to a prow. And the vision is very specific on that: the corpse is at the prow of a ship. And we know marrying Dany is Euron's plan. And Euron is the type of man Dany likes (providing he is on his best behaviour).  This seems pretty strong to me.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If there is no Aeron 2 then the naval battle is not going to shown via POV. The only other POV in the area is Samwell and he is not likely to participate in the battle. There is a small chance that he could be on one of the Hightower ships joining the battle but if so he would not get a pretty good picture of the action.

Only Aeron 2 could give us the buildup for the coming chaos, and that is far from over. Aeron has just been tied to the prow, we are not yet out there in the sea nor are any Redwyne ships yet visible. One expects Aeron 2 to cover events up until the fighting/spell begins, ending either with Aeron being killed (less likely in my opinion) or him getting away. Then Aeron 3 could cover whatever he witnessed of the battle from amidst the sea. 

Yea, I meant the battle could be reported on in a Sam POV (i.e. someone tells him what happened). I agree Aeron is the only POV we could have in the battle itself. I'm not sure GrrM can do a whole chapter with Aeron lashed to the prow of a ship. And Euron seems to intend to sacrifice him, so he'll likely be dead before the action starts, assuming thing go according to Euron's plan (which they probably will).

I think, given we will be seeing battle in front of Meereen, at Winterfell, at the Wall, and potentially at SE, GrrM will probably omit Euron's defeat of the Redwyne fleet. I think this is especially likely because magic will be involved, and I think he may want to keep Euron's powers mysterious.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is also a tall shadow. And Dany is not tall. And it doesn't seem to be a literal shadow (i.e. a shadow across the floor or the wall) but rather a shadowy figure. It is also pretty unlikely that Dany would laugh along evilly while Euron kills a lot of gods and people.

Some people seem to think Euron is actually going to transform himself into some sort of supernatural monster by the whole blood sacrifice of holy men spell. I think it will just destroy the Redwyne fleet.

If we see some prophetic aspects in Aeron's visions the chances that he will actually sit the Iron Throne for a time went considerably higher, though. But in such a scenario it doesn't seem likely he is getting there with Dany's help because he doesn't have any dragons in those visions. If he and Dany were working together one would expect to see an echo of that in some genuine visions.

It is a little confusing I agree, although it is described primarily as a shadow in the form of a woman, not a woman cloaked in shadow. I don't really have an opinion about whether it is prophetic or not. I don't find the absence of dragons in the vision particularly telling myself. It is hard to say what should and should not appear in visions/prophetic dreams.

You have probably written about this somewhere, but what are you views on Jon's future storyline. You clearly disagree with Northman on the subject (as do I) but what do you see at the alternative to Jon going south and taking up a political role?

 

 

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Bright does not have to refer to colour. It can mean flashing, intense, glittering or something like that. The eyes could be bright with reflections of something. I don't think Aeron's eyes are actually black, because that would mean he has no irises. They will be dark brown or grey, and could shine or glisten under the right circumstances.

I know that there are no black eyes in reality, but George uses them. He also has the very weird Bolton eyes and those haunting purple eyes of the Daynes and the Valyrians.

My first association with Aeron simply is not that his black eyes would be all that bright. Especially in connection to a corpse. In fact, the whole corpse scenario puts the bright eyes into wight territory. The only thing against that would be the fact that corpse smiles sadly. The wights usually don't smile.

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

GrrM won't have known a lot of the details but I believe he will have known who the vision represented and what it was. He knows who the stone beast is too, and the way in which the vision evokes them.

Sure, but it might actually be that some of those visions do not come true. Prophecies don't have to come true all times. Dany was nearly killed by those locusts and could have been killed by Drogon, and might still die. And the very people making all those prophecies, the Undying, were trying to do their best to prevent them from coming true while making them.

We have to keep that in mind. And some cryptic things in the prophecies/visions could also refer to events or situations symbolized by persons/creatures rather than refer to actual people. 

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

The only reason to assume the corpse is Aemon is if you want to run with the idea that the three visions do not represent three different husbands. And that is something of a stretch. And bright is not synonymous with white.

All true. What I'm trying to say there is that we don't have to go with the possibility that all the visions represented her husbands. Hizdahr wasn't among the visions, and Daario neither. If we go along with the three lies - Stannis, Aegon, the stone beast - we don't really know if she actually has to slay these people literally or even figuratively. There is a good chance that they will take care of each other, or others will kill them before she arrives. It might be that merely her very existence as the true savior is going to make these other people liars.

And I'd not be surprised if Euron became the stone beast taking wing. That could refer to him eventually becoming some sort of evil greenseer with the help of the shade of the evening and other magics.

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Look, I get this isn't 100% certain at this stage. However, I think it is very likely. I think you are really reaching with the claim that Aeron can't represent Euron, when we have other people represented in a variety of ways: Drogo by a horse, Aegon by a cloth dragon, Jon by a flower etc. According to your logic we should assume Dany will marry a flower stuck in a wall.

To sum it up. We know each vision is a husband. We know Aeron is quite likely to die soon (becoming a corpse) and that he has been tied to a prow. And the vision is very specific on that: the corpse is at the prow of a ship. And we know marrying Dany is Euron's plan. And Euron is the type of man Dany likes (providing he is on his best behaviour).  This seems pretty strong to me.

You can make a pretty good case for that on the prophecy level, I agree. The problem I see with this on the level of the narrative is that I have strong problems to ever see Dany and Euron meet in an environment where they could hook up. There are thousands of leagues between these two, and they are not likely to see each other very soon.

But I'm not in principle opposed to the idea that it could happen. But that would mean that Dany is likely going to reject both the advice and the help of a lot of the people gathering around her right now - Tyrion, Moqorro, Marwyn, Barristan, Daario, etc. Not sure if that's going to happen.

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Yea, I meant the battle could be reported in a Sam POV. I agree Aeron is the only POV we could have in the battle itself. I'm not sure GrrM can do a whole chapter with Aeron lashed to the prow of a ship. And Euron seems to intend to sacrifice him, so he'll likely be dead before the action starts, assuming thing go according to Euron's plan (which they probably will).

I'd expect Aeron 2 to be a rather short chapter. In such a fashion it would doable, and I also expect that Euron is not going to begin the blood sacrifice to make the spell while the Redwyne ships are still far away. He is not a god or something, and whatever he intends to unleash might have a limited range.

I still think it will be a magical storm of some sort. Melisandre conjured up a very effective wind with the sacrifice of Alester Florent, so some dozen blood sacrifices one of which is carrying Euron's own child might be somewhat more effective, strong enough to destroy a lot ships, and disperse the surviving ones.

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I think, given we will be seeing battle in front of Meereen, at Winterfell, at the Wall, and potentially at SE, GrrM will probably omit Euron's defeat of the Redwyne fleet. I think this is especially likely because magic will be involved, and I think he may want to keep Euron's powers mysterious.

The way he dialed up the man in the last chapter I actually doubt that. I agree that we won't be there, with Euron, during the entire battle but I think both Aeron and Sam (if he is on one of the Hightower ships) could paint as a pretty detailed and gruesome picture. But we will most likely not see what is going to happen 'in the eye of the storm' directly. On that people will have to guess.

If Aeron survive his inside knowledge on Euron will be what keeps him alive as a Hightower prisoner. Somebody has to tell the people of Westeros that Euron Greyjoy is actually dreaming pretty big dreams...

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

It is a little confusing I agree, although it is described primarily as a shadow in the form of a woman, not a woman cloaked in shadow. I don't really have an opinion about whether it is prophetic or not. I don't find the absence of dragons in the vision particularly telling myself. It is hard to say what should and should not appear in visions/prophetic dreams.

One can make guesses, though

21 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

You have probably written about this somewhere, but what are you views on Jon's future storyline. You clearly disagree with Northman on the subject (as do I) but what do you see at the alternative to Jon going south and taking up a political role?

Jon's future path will first be determined by the manner of his resurrection. As long as we don't know anything about that it is very difficult to guess in what direction he is going to go after that.

My general outline would be that he stays at the Wall/in the North, and continues to prepare the NW/people opposing the Others for the inevitable attack of the Others. I expect there to be some disagreement how to prepare the Seven Kingdoms for the Others and how to carry the war to them (which should soon become an objective) before they attack the Wall. There should also be some fallout in the wake of the Hardhome catastrophe (we don't know whether anyone is going to go there to try to save the wildlings or not) and then there is the Weeper to deal with (who could become another military problem in the North if he actually crosses the Bridge of Skulls and destroys the Shadow Tower in the process).

I expect the Stannis-Bolton situation to be resolved in Stannis' favor, and I think he will then return to the Wall.

I expect Jon to be the one to realize that the Wall is doomed when it is doomed, and I think he and some of his friends will escape the Others bring it crushing down (probably with the Horn of Winter causing a huge magical earthquake, bringing down not only the Wall but also all the castles at the Wall (at least those who are not destroyed by the tons of ice coming down on their heads).

Thereafter/before that Jon will fall back to Winterfell and eventually the Neck (where he could hook up with Howland Reed and get important news about his parentage if he doesn't have them already, and from there he will eventually hook up with Dany and Tyrion to form the savior trinity - the dragon has three heads, after all).

How that's going to work out then I've no idea. I actually don't know how the good guys are going to defeat the Others. But it seems pretty clear to me that Dany, Jon, and Tyrion are going to lead the good guys in that war. Whether they or all of them are going to do the hard work is difficult to say. Bran should be very important, too, as should Arya and Brienne. Possibly even Jaime, if he survives this long.

Stannis is going to die at some point after he has burned Shireen alive. Perhaps he finds a dragon egg at Winterfell and thinks he has to burn his daughter to hatch it. Or that is part of some desperate attempt to prevent the fall of the Wall.

I don't expect the Others to bring down the Wall all that quickly. There might be a race who finds the Horn of Winter first, and the Others might already sent wights across the Bridge of Skulls, through the Gorge, or across the the Bay of Ice long before they actually take on the Wall itself.

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, COYStars said:

But the text gives us enough clues that we cannot say with certainty that he is not trueborn, either.

Well, since no one bothered to list/give these clues, we/I can only act as if they don't exist.

2 hours ago, COYStars said:

I find this all very funny. What you're basically saying is, until we know what the scene at the Tower of Joy was all about, we're going to pretend that it didn't happen.

Not necessarily. I think it's fine to say something like "there's a possibility that Jon is trueborn, based on this and that... " and then proceed to some kind of discussion from there. At the end you'll find people disagreeing, but others (people reading the thread, the OP) will know why.
Instead we have several people presenting the idea that Jon is trueborn as fact, without bothering to explain how they came to this remarkable conclusion. What this tactic seems to be meant to do (in my eyes) is preclude any kind of discussion whatsoever ; you either believe it, or you don't.
When people resort to such tactics it generally means their case is really weak and they don't want to discuss it because on some level they're aware that they'll find it difficult to convince others (also, they've generally tried before). It's often the case for theories that have a lot of thematic purpose but little textual support.

I'm familiar with the ToJ argument, and though I personally don't buy it, I'm willing to admit it's an interesting take on that particular episode. Now I'm waiting for the other clues. On its own, the ToJ is hardly enough. If there are indeed more clues, even minor ones, then the case become must more compelling. Not enough that I would present it as fact I reckon, but at least enough for me to understand why others do so.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I always took the corpse in the prow of the ship to be a clear reference to a Greyjoy. The whole grey lips smiling sadly seems like a clear play on Grey- and -Joy.

As for the bright eyes in dead face - I always took that to mean the bright blue eyes of a wight.

As for which Greyjoy. Back when it first came out we really just knew Theon, so that's who I took it to be.

 

[The Bastards Giant Friend]

57 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Well, since no one bothered to list/give these clues, we/I can only act as if they don't exist.

Not necessarily. I think it's fine to say something like "there's a possibility that Jon is trueborn, based on this and that... " and then proceed to some kind of discussion from there. At the end you'll find people disagreeing, but others (people reading the thread, the OP) will know why.
Instead we have several people presenting the idea that Jon is trueborn as fact, without bothering to explain how they came to this remarkable conclusion. What this tactic seems to be meant to do (in my eyes) is preclude any kind of discussion whatsoever ; you either believe it, or you don't.
When people resort to such tactics it generally means their case is really weak and they don't want to discuss it because on some level they're aware that they'll find it difficult to convince others (also, they've generally tried before). It's often the case for theories that have a lot of thematic purpose but little textual support.

I'm familiar with the ToJ argument, and though I personally don't buy it, I'm willing to admit it's an interesting take on that particular episode. Now I'm waiting for the other clues. On its own, the ToJ is hardly enough. If there are indeed more clues, even minor ones, then the case become must more compelling. Not enough that I would present it as fact I reckon, but at least enough for me to understand why others do so.

I agree with this. It is reasonable to doubt that Jon is trueborn, and in fact I like the idea of him still being a bastard after finding out his true lineage. He might say something like "it doesn't matter who my father was, I'm still a bastard. What can a bastard do?" And then Sam or someone would give him a sack-up speech about him being most capable of unifying mankind in the only fight that matters.

Because ultimately I do not expect the legitimacy of any of our candidates to be the deciding factor. It will be the steel (and scales) supporting their assertion. The throne is very much up for grabs.

Also, I have a tinfoil theory that fAegon will be used as a cautionary tale for Dany, he will strike his claim and the reactions will not be what a naive young Targ would expect. He may even die before she meets him. But if he doesn't, a dragon is my favorite to kill him and "prove" peoples doubts were justified.

[The Twinslayer]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Well, since no one bothered to list/give these clues, we/I can only act as if they don't exist.

Not necessarily. I think it's fine to say something like "there's a possibility that Jon is trueborn, based on this and that... " and then proceed to some kind of discussion from there. At the end you'll find people disagreeing, but others (people reading the thread, the OP) will know why.
Instead we have several people presenting the idea that Jon is trueborn as fact, without bothering to explain how they came to this remarkable conclusion. What this tactic seems to be meant to do (in my eyes) is preclude any kind of discussion whatsoever ; you either believe it, or you don't.
When people resort to such tactics it generally means their case is really weak and they don't want to discuss it because on some level they're aware that they'll find it difficult to convince others (also, they've generally tried before). It's often the case for theories that have a lot of thematic purpose but little textual support.

I'm familiar with the ToJ argument, and though I personally don't buy it, I'm willing to admit it's an interesting take on that particular episode. Now I'm waiting for the other clues. On its own, the ToJ is hardly enough. If there are indeed more clues, even minor ones, then the case become must more compelling. Not enough that I would present it as fact I reckon, but at least enough for me to understand why others do so.

The arguments for Jon's legitimacy are all very weak and based more on wishful thinking than anything else.  Since you are familiar with the toj argument I won't repeat it here other than to say that it depends on the premise that there can be no explanation for the KG presence at the toj if they are not protecting a trueborn king.  That theory was never very strong, but it really fell apart when The Princess and the Queen showed the last two KGs (Fell and Thorne) being ordered to leave King Aegon II in the care of a nameless bastard knight while the KGs went to go do something else.  

The starting point for the supposed "other clues" is usually the scene in ACOK where Mormont tells Jon the story about Aemon turning down the iron throne.  Mormont says that Robb is now a king, and the raven says "King."  The argument was that the raven was looking at Jon when it said "King" and that that means that Jon is the rightful king of Westeros because he is a legitimate son of Rhaegar and therefore came before Viserys and Dany in the Targaryen succession.  Of course, the argument falls apart when it is pointed out the raven was actually looking at Mormont when it said "King."  Or when it is pointed out that the world book makes clear that Viserys was the heir to the Iron Throne after Rhaegar died.  

This led to a scramble to find an "earlier clue."  So one was found, in AGOT:  "Kings are a rare sight in the north."  Robert snorted.  "More likely they were hiding under the snow.  Snow, Ned!"

That led to the theory that Jon was a "king" who was "hiding under the name Snow."  Of course, that one fell apart, too, when it was pointed out that the discussion was actually about common people hiding from kings.  For that, you just need the full context: 

"Robert snorted.  'Bogs and forests and fields, and scarcely a decent inn north of the Neck.  I've never seen such a vast emptiness.  Where are all your people?'

'Likely they were too shy to come out,' Ned jested.  He could feel the chill coming up the stairs, a cold breath from deep within the earth.  'Kings are a rare sight in the north.'

Robert snorted.  'More likely, they were hiding under the snow.  Snow, Ned!'"

So the "they" who may have been hiding under the snow were Ned's "people" who might have been too shy to come out into the presence of King Robert.  Not kings who are hiding under fake names.

There are some more examples, but you get the picture.