military strengths in westeros, beyond shear numbers

[direpupy]

On 29-5-2017 at 6:48 PM, Lord Varys said:

1)Again, Alyn Velaryon's fleet did just that, and we can be pretty sure he must have gotten up the Greenblood as far as Godsgrace at least, since the Greenblood would have been as massive a river as both the Vaith and the Scourge combined, and if even these are navigable with boats far up the Greenblood should be both deeper and broader than both of these.

2)If there are droughts those don't seem to affect the regions alongside the main rivers - Torrentine, Brimstone, and Greenblood and its vassals - since they are not supposed to run dry.

3)That suggests that the lands alongside the Greenblood should be watered by the canals the Dornishmen dig and maintain as continuously as you can with the technology they have. And that should mean there constant harvests to be had in those regions. The fertile land along the Nile was never that broad. But if such land stretches for miles and miles the revenue can be enormous.

I tend to agree there, but the lands of the Daynes and Yronwoods might still be pretty fertile. The only really infertile places are the deep sands. The Greenblood is the lifeblood of Dorne because it is a river that crosses the sands and essentially brings life to it. Just as the Nile does in Egypt. You can live a pretty good life in the Dornish sands if you live in a village close to the Greenblood.

Life alongside the Brimstone should be much uglier, though.

Dorne does export wine and oranges. There have to places where both are grown. Grapes could be grown both alongside the Greenblood, perhaps close to the Planky Town, but just as well up in the valleys of the Red Mountains. We don't really know.

As I've said, the problem is that we don't really know how fertile the lands of the North is compared to other regions. The fact that the North is so vast doesn't really figure into the equation there. Not while we don't know how large the fields of a single family have to be to feed them. If the ground is not so fertile you need more of it make as good revenues as can be made, say, in the Reach.

And we know it is less fertile. If you check the descriptions of the Seven Kingdoms in TWoIaF it is clear that no region of the North is described as being fertile whereas the Reach, the West, the Riverlands, and the Vale are.

And the Reach, the West, the Vale, and the Riverlands all would produce massive quantities of food, outdoing the North in every possibly category. The fertility of the Vale is legendary, and this most likely means that you can grow much more quantities of, say, wheat on a single square mile in the Vale than anywhere else in Westeros.

The advantage Dorne would have over the North is the fact that it would have constant warm and sunny weather alongside the rivers. All the Dornishmen there need is enough water from the rivers, and they apparently always get that.

 

I only now saw that the OP would like us to return to the original subject of the tread so i wil not adress the many things wrong with wat you say here because of that.

apollogys to the OP for my previeus post i had not seen that you had asked to return to the original topic.

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I honestly don't know. Considering the low fertility of the islands there should be fewer men there than on many of the other islands of equal or similar size - Fair Isle, the Arbor, the Shield Islands, Tarth and Estermont, perhaps even the Three Sisters (although they also don't seem to be very fertile).

See above. Also note that Dany got a special dragonbone bow, just as she got a special whip and a special arakh. There might be cheaper weapons of that kind. Note that the dagger Joffrey gives that has a dragonbone hilt and a Valyrian steel blade yet it doesn't seem to be that costly. There certainly could be hundreds or thousands more common dragonbone bows among the Dothraki.

See I can't really get behind emptying the Iron Islands. If you mean emptying of men who can and do fight, then I'd agree. However we see no mention of anyone who wasn't at the kingsmoot. That still leaves all the old men, young boys, thralls, drowned men, craftsmen, women, salt wives, rock wives, and the castellan plus any men he needs to maintain law and order, garrison castles, and hunt down the drowned men.

Assuming the Iron fleet is roughly 100 men per ship and the other long ships are 30-50 per ship, Euron sailed with 50K-75K men. There's no way the Iron Islands hold so few people.

As to Dragonbone bows, they are described as "highly sought after" and it wasn't described as special, but splendid. Frankly either would apply to a rare weapon. Comparing it to the catspaw dagger makes that even less sensical. We see 3 non-sword VS weapons, there are allegedly ~200 (After losses) in Westeros and maybe thousands in the world. It's described as too good a weapon for a common man with more than a hint of classism. I don't doubt there could be hundreds more among all Dothraki. That's why I specified his Khalasar. You also have to have the wherewithal to work it (not that we know what that entails). Rakharo rode his horse through a skeletal dragon's maw. Nothing was stopping him from picking up a rib or something appropriate and taking it back to Dany's khalasar. 

[Corvo the Crow]

24 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

See I can't really get behind emptying the Iron Islands. If you mean emptying of men who can and do fight, then I'd agree. However we see no mention of anyone who wasn't at the kingsmoot. That still leaves all the old men, young boys, thralls, drowned men, craftsmen, women, salt wives, rock wives, and the castellan plus any men he needs to maintain law and order, garrison castles, and hunt down the drowned men.

Assuming the Iron fleet is roughly 100 men per ship and the other long ships are 30-50 per ship, Euron sailed with 50K-75K men. There's no way the Iron Islands hold so few people.

Ironfleet may have 100 men per boat, we do not know, but others aren't; Asha had 30 ships and "a thousand men" according to Theon, who had 8 ships. "A thousand" is four or five times the number Theon has according to Cleftjaw. Can check the military strengths thread for quotes. Also how did you get that 50-75k? Iron isles may be called "land of ten thousand kings" but they do not have even 500 longboats when all the captains gather.

Gorold Goodbrook of GreatWyk, who own mines and therefore would be better able to afford ships more than most has less than 40 ships, which are mostly crewed by greenboys by the way.

When all his fathers captain's have gathered theon sees "near four hundred", only two lords from Old Wyk hasn't arrived yet but I doubt they could afford 40 ships per lord, may be not even between themselves. Again, check the other thread, should be the latest post.

As for Euron vs Balon force; Euron may have taken the whole nation to war but Balon mobilized the entire island even if he didn't take all the ships he gathered to war.

Quote

Victarion rose. The wine had dulled the throbbing in his hand. Perhaps he would have Hewett's maester look at it, if the man had not been killed. He returned to deck as they came around a headland. The way Lord Hewett's castle sat above the harbor reminded him of Lordsport, though this town was twice as big. A score of longships prowled the waters beyond the port, the golden kraken writhing on their sails. Hundreds more were beached along the shingles and drawn up to the piers that lined the harbor. At a stone quay stood three great cogs and a dozen smaller ones, taking on plunder and provisions. Victarion gave orders for the Iron Victory to drop anchor. "Have a boat made ready."

Lordsport is the biggest town of Iron Isles according to TWOIAF, however Harlaw is the most populated. (p176) So not much to get an exact count but we at least know their biggest settlement is only around half the size of a small island settlement of the Reach. Also again, Gorold Goodbrothers crew of greenboys would show us there aren't enough "men in their prime" to crew those ships. Or this may only be the case for those lords who would keep more suitable men for their mines.

On another note, only time we got the description of a longboat, at least as far as I can recall, is when we see Theon's seabitch; hundred feet long, single mast, fifty oars and deck enough for a hundred.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

See I can't really get behind emptying the Iron Islands. If you mean emptying of men who can and do fight, then I'd agree. However we see no mention of anyone who wasn't at the kingsmoot. That still leaves all the old men, young boys, thralls, drowned men, craftsmen, women, salt wives, rock wives, and the castellan plus any men he needs to maintain law and order, garrison castles, and hunt down the drowned men.

That would be what I mean. Nine out of ten men on the islands seem to live off fishing, which means that an overwhelming majority of people either owns or works on the ships. Those men would now all be gone aside from a small minority of people who remained behind to feed and care for the people that couldn't go. Those would be women, very young male children (Wex Pyke went to war, after all), and men too old and weak to go to war. Considering the Ironborn culture those men would have to be pretty old and weak.

10 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Assuming the Iron fleet is roughly 100 men per ship and the other long ships are 30-50 per ship, Euron sailed with 50K-75K men. There's no way the Iron Islands hold so few people.

We don't know how many ships Euron has, only that it is hundreds. The Iron Fleet originally consisted of a hundred, but Victarion lost nearly half of them. We also do not really know how many usually are on a long ship. It would vary, one imagines, depending on size. Victarion has enough men, though, to man all the ships he captures in Slaver's Bay with Moqorro's help. 

10 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

As to Dragonbone bows, they are described as "highly sought after" and it wasn't described as special, but splendid. Frankly either would apply to a rare weapon. Comparing it to the catspaw dagger makes that even less sensical. We see 3 non-sword VS weapons, there are allegedly ~200 (After losses) in Westeros and maybe thousands in the world.

Dragonbone bows could be more common that Valyrian steel weapons. At least in Essos. We have to wait and see how it turns out. Dany is most likely going to unite all the Dothraki under her command and then she can pick and choose the men she wants to take to Westeros.

It is not clear that Thurgood's Inventories listed all Valyrian steel weapons known in Westeros but rather only all the swords or weapons bearing a name. It is pretty unlikely that any Valyrian steel eating knives the Targaryens may have brought to Dragonstone would show up on any list. Just as it is unlikely that the dagger was on that list. If it was it should have been much easier to track it down.

10 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's described as too good a weapon for a common man with more than a hint of classism. I don't doubt there could be hundreds more among all Dothraki. That's why I specified his Khalasar. You also have to have the wherewithal to work it (not that we know what that entails). Rakharo rode his horse through a skeletal dragon's maw. Nothing was stopping him from picking up a rib or something appropriate and taking it back to Dany's khalasar. 

See above. All the Dothraki could easily enough have thousands of dragonbone bows. And if that's the case we are going to see them in combat.

Even if they don't have any of those the ability of the Dothraki to use common longbows while riding in and of itself could become a huge problem for any Westerosi armor. Normal longbows can pierce arrows, too, and if you have the space to maneuver this kind of thing can have devastating effects on army that is less mobile than the Dothraki (which an army consisting mostly of infantry would inevitably be).

[Free Northman Reborn]

Regarding the Iron Isles, George does say that due to their warrior culture a much higher proportion of their population goes to war than in the mainland kingdoms, where there is a peasant agricultural class that supports the much smaller warrior class at the top.

However, this still needs to be seen in context.

If you take any typical medieval population, let's say 50% are women. So, of the 50% of men, perhaps a third will be children and perhaps 20% will be too old to go to war.

So let's say half of men are of fighting age. Of those, a certain portion will not be able bodied. I think it is quite realistic to put the able bodied, adult, fighting capable portion of the male population at around one third. So that means 16.5% of the total population is likely an able bodied male.

So the question really becomes, what portion of that 16.5% will go to war? That would be all the men who are not needed elsewhere, for whatever reason, be it for agriculture, trades, or whatever other purpose. George says that in the Iron Isles, this percentage is much higher than on the mainland, where a much larger peasant base supports the warrior class.

I would put the Ironborn mobilization percentage at around 10% of the total population, which is incedibly high for a medieval nation. So this is taking George's comment to its extreme.

So, if the Ironborn raise 25,000 men, then their total population is likely around 250k.

And then on the mainland, that percentage is between 1%-2%. 1% in the North, and maybe 2% in rich areas like the Reach and Westerlands.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be what I mean. Nine out of ten men on the islands seem to live off fishing, which means that an overwhelming majority of people either owns or works on the ships. Those men would now all be gone aside from a small minority of people who remained behind to feed and care for the people that couldn't go. Those would be women, very young male children (Wex Pyke went to war, after all), and men too old and weak to go to war. Considering the Ironborn culture those men would have to be pretty old and weak.

We don't know how many ships Euron has, only that it is hundreds. The Iron Fleet originally consisted of a hundred, but Victarion lost nearly half of them. We also do not really know how many usually are on a long ship. It would vary, one imagines, depending on size. Victarion has enough men, though, to man all the ships he captures in Slaver's Bay with Moqorro's help. 

Dragonbone bows could be more common that Valyrian steel weapons. At least in Essos. We have to wait and see how it turns out. Dany is most likely going to unite all the Dothraki under her command and then she can pick and choose the men she wants to take to Westeros.

It is not clear that Thurgood's Inventories listed all Valyrian steel weapons known in Westeros but rather only all the swords or weapons bearing a name. It is pretty unlikely that any Valyrian steel eating knives the Targaryens may have brought to Dragonstone would show up on any list. Just as it is unlikely that the dagger was on that list. If it was it should have been much easier to track it down.

See above. All the Dothraki could easily enough have thousands of dragonbone bows. And if that's the case we are going to see them in combat.

Even if they don't have any of those the ability of the Dothraki to use common longbows while riding in and of itself could become a huge problem for any Westerosi armor. Normal longbows can pierce arrows, too, and if you have the space to maneuver this kind of thing can have devastating effects on army that is less mobile than the Dothraki (which an army consisting mostly of infantry would inevitably be).

What is this about all the Dothraki having dragonbone bows? The World of Ice and Fire makes it clear that dragonbone bows are exceedingly rare. They are highly prized among the Dothraki for a reason. Because of their extreme  rarity.

Here is the quote:

"To this day, the bowmen (and women) of the Summer Isles are esteemed the finest in the world. Nor can their bows be matched by common bows, for the princes of the isles have forbidden the export of goldenheart wood since the Slavers' Wars; only bows of dragonbone are known to surpass them, and those are exceedingly rare."

[Universal Sword Donor]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be what I mean. Nine out of ten men on the islands seem to live off fishing, which means that an overwhelming majority of people either owns or works on the ships. Those men would now all be gone aside from a small minority of people who remained behind to feed and care for the people that couldn't go. Those would be women, very young male children (Wex Pyke went to war, after all), and men too old and weak to go to war. Considering the Ironborn culture those men would have to be pretty old and weak.

We don't know how many ships Euron has, only that it is hundreds. The Iron Fleet originally consisted of a hundred, but Victarion lost nearly half of them. We also do not really know how many usually are on a long ship. It would vary, one imagines, depending on size. Victarion has enough men, though, to man all the ships he captures in Slaver's Bay with Moqorro's help. 

Dragonbone bows could be more common that Valyrian steel weapons. At least in Essos. We have to wait and see how it turns out. Dany is most likely going to unite all the Dothraki under her command and then she can pick and choose the men she wants to take to Westeros.

It is not clear that Thurgood's Inventories listed all Valyrian steel weapons known in Westeros but rather only all the swords or weapons bearing a name. It is pretty unlikely that any Valyrian steel eating knives the Targaryens may have brought to Dragonstone would show up on any list. Just as it is unlikely that the dagger was on that list. If it was it should have been much easier to track it down.

See above. All the Dothraki could easily enough have thousands of dragonbone bows. And if that's the case we are going to see them in combat.

Even if they don't have any of those the ability of the Dothraki to use common longbows while riding in and of itself could become a huge problem for any Westerosi armor. Normal longbows can pierce arrows, too, and if you have the space to maneuver this kind of thing can have devastating effects on army that is less mobile than the Dothraki (which an army consisting mostly of infantry would inevitably be).

Fishing ships are not fighting ships, but even so they still have to feed everyone left behind, which is more than half the population. I mean, if more than a quarter of the IB are off the islands I'd be insanely surprised. Wex was also a squire and a highborn bastard. That's a sliver of a sliver of a population. They still are leaving behind every craftsman, farmer, miner, thrall, skeleton garrisons, and enough men to feed the the rest of the population. 

Thurgood's inventory is limited to swords (like I said), but the dagger is also not a common steal eating knife. We haven't even seen eating utensils and GRRM said it was used mostly for weapons. VS is exceedingly rare in Westeros. This was a knife worth enough that a king had to win a bet for it during a huge tournament. The fact we haven't seen its like since and Tywin gives us a pretty decent description of what kingly gifts would be:

“Robert left a hundred when he died. Gerion gave him a gilded dagger with an ivory grip and a sapphire pommel for a wedding gift, and half the envoys who came to court tried to curry favor by presenting His Grace with jewel-encrusted knives and silver inlay swords.”

Not one mention of VS daggers in a conversation about creating a VS dagger for Tyrion from Ice. And it looks like FNR beat me to the punch re the world book and dragonbone bows. Also what longbow can you use from horseback? Dany's longbow was not as large as normal longbows and the ones used IRL by anyone were neither recurved like horse bows nor shorter than a man. The former is an efficiency preference but you literally can't fire a 6' bow sitting down -- well maybe if you want to point nearly straight up.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Fishing ships are not fighting ships, but even so they still have to feed everyone left behind, which is more than half the population. I mean, if more than a quarter of the IB are off the islands I'd be insanely surprised. Wex was also a squire and a highborn bastard. That's a sliver of a sliver of a population. They still are leaving behind every craftsman, farmer, miner, thrall, skeleton garrisons, and enough men to feed the the rest of the population. 

The way George seems to paint it that the Ironborn use the same ships for fishing as for raiding. Sure, you have to be a richer captain to afford a larger ship but the basics would be the same. Pirating is not that hard. You just have to get close to a ship and kill the men aboard. There is a special group of ships made for actual warfare, and most of those would belong to the Iron Fleet since most of the normal 'captains and kings' are not likely to be able to afford and maintain such ships. But the long ships of the Ironborn in general seem to be very good, just as they are all very good sailors. They know their trade, and they know what they want to do.

In that sense I'm pretty sure that a rather large portion of the men left the islands. Especially in light of the plunder and spoils Euron offered them.

Quote

Thurgood's inventory is limited to swords (like I said), but the dagger is also not a common steal eating knife. We haven't even seen eating utensils and GRRM said it was used mostly for weapons. VS is exceedingly rare in Westeros. This was a knife worth enough that a king had to win a bet for it during a huge tournament.

Robert did win the dagger in a wager but that doesn't make it a kingly gift. It certainly was a worthy gift but nobody seems to care all that much about a Valyrian steel dagger with a dragonbone hilt.

Quote

And it looks like FNR beat me to the punch re the world book and dragonbone bows.

Yandel isn't an expert on the Dothraki Sea and Dothraki possession. We will have to wait and see how many dragonbone bows the Dothraki have when they finally show up again. George created those guys for a reason. They will invade Westeros, and it is not all that likely that we'll see them being crushed by some knights. 

Quote

Also what longbow can you use from horseback? Dany's longbow was not as large as normal longbows and the ones used IRL by anyone were neither recurved like horse bows nor shorter than a man. The former is an efficiency preference but you literally can't fire a 6' bow sitting down -- well maybe if you want to point nearly straight up.

I honestly don't know all that much about archery. Perhaps the bows the Dothraki would use aren't longbows? Still, if they can use their mobility to their advantage they should be a terrible foe. And they can be very effective tacticians in battle. Just read how they destroyed the Sarnori.

Once the Dothraki are in Westeros they are very likely to quickly dominate the territory there. Especially wide open plains like the Reach or the Riverlands, but also the North. The only thing that could make things difficult for them would be winter. But then, there is winter in the Dothraki Sea, too, and they live through that. It is not likely harder there than, say, in the Reach.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If you take any typical medieval population, let's say 50% are women. So, of the 50% of men, perhaps a third will be children and perhaps 20% will be too old to go to war.

Considering the mortality rate in a medieval society it is not that likely that we have 20% old men among the male population. It is more likely that only 5-10% of the old men would really be so old as being no longer able to work on a ship (and perhaps even fewer - the average Ironborn commoner is not likely to live the the age of sixty, perhaps not even fifty). Note that not all Ironborn would have to do the fighting and killing. A considerable portion of the men in Euron's armada could just do manual tasks on the ships.

And among the children, well, children should begin their careers as seamen and sailors at around ten, perhaps earlier. That's the culture of the Ironborn. Many Greyjoys started this early, just think of the Red Kraken or even Balon Greyjoy.

That seems to be the crucial part as to why the Old Way never died. Youths and young men like the idea to rise and win fame by taking what they want from weaker men.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So let's say half of men are of fighting age. Of those, a certain portion will not be able bodied. I think it is quite realistic to put the able bodied, adult, fighting capable portion of the male population at around one third. So that means 16.5% of the total population is likely an able bodied male.

Well, we don't know what the Ironborn do with their cripples and freaks. One assume they throw them into the sea. So they don't live to old age. And just because you lack some fingers (quite come if you play the finger dance, as the Ironborn are prone to do) doesn't mean you are not able-bodied. Again, all you have to do to be part of Euron's armada is to be a sailor or own a ship. And that should be true for quite a few Ironborn.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So the question really becomes, what portion of that 16.5% will go to war? That would be all the men who are not needed elsewhere, for whatever reason, be it for agriculture, trades, or whatever other purpose. George says that in the Iron Isles, this percentage is much higher than on the mainland, where a much larger peasant base supports the warrior class.

There are simply only very few peasants on the Iron Islands, period. The land is not fertile, and the people don't like to sow, anyway. The work on the field is done by thralls, as is most manual labor (including servant work in the castles).

[Corvo the Crow]

 

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That seems to be the crucial part as to why the Old Way never died. Youths and young men like the idea to rise and win fame by taking what they want from weaker men.

Old way is dead. or at least

 

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There are simply only very few peasants on the Iron Islands, period. The land is not fertile, and the people don't like to sow, anyway. The work on the field is done by thralls, as is most manual labor (including servant work in the castles).

Yes to first two statements and liekly yes for the third too but they still do it out of neccesity and a huge no for the last two parts. The quote below was on the last page but I'm putting it here again, this time relevant bits are bold.

 

Quote

"I have never seen the Iron Islands."
"Count yourself fortunate." Theon stroked her hair. it was fine and dark, though the wind had made a tangle of it. "The islands are stern and stony places, scant of comfort and bleak of prospect. Death is never far here, and life is mean and meager. Men spend their nights drinking ale and arguing over whose lot is worse, the fisherfolk who fight the sea or the farmers who try and scratch a crop from the poor thin soil. If truth be told, the miners have it worse than either, breaking their backs down in the dark, and for what? Iron, lead, tin, those are our treasures. Small wonder the ironmen of old turned to raiding."

"Once I might have carried you home as a prize, and kept you to wife whether you willed it or no. The ironmen of old did such things. A man had his rock wife, his true bride, ironborn like himself, but he had his salt wives too, women captured on raids."
The girl's eyes grew wide, and not because he had bared her breasts. "I would be your salt wife, milord."
"I fear those days are gone." Theon's finger circled one heavy teat, spiraling in toward the fat brown nipple. "No longer may we ride the wind with fire and sword, taking what we want. Now we scratch in the ground and toss lines in the sea like other men, and count ourselves lucky if we have salt cod and porridge enough to get us through a winter."

Once I would have kept her as a salt wife in truth, he thought to himself as he slid his fingers through her tangled hair. Once. When we still kept the Old Way, lived by the axe instead of the pick, taking what we would, be it wealth, women, or glory. In those days, the ironborn did not work mines; that was labor for the captives brought back from the hostings, and so too the sorry business of farming and tending goats and sheep. War was an ironman's proper trade. The Drowned God had made them to reave and rape, to carve out kingdoms and write their names in fire and blood and song.
Aegon the Dragon had destroyed the Old Way when he burned Black Harren, gave Harren's kingdom back to the weakling rivermen, and reduced the Iron Islands to an insignificant backwater of a much greater realm. Yet the old red tales were still told around driftwood fires and smoky hearths all across the islands, even behind the high stone halls of Pyke. Theon's father numbered among his titles the style of Lord Reaper, and the Greyjoy words boasted that We Do Not Sow.
It had been to bring back the Old Way more than for the empty vanity of a crown that Lord Balon had staged his great rebellion.

Old way is no more. There may be a thrall or two serving as a servant here or there, taken by the likes of Euron who venture as far as the free cities at least, but that's it. Not enough for mines and herds and farms. And there wouldn't be a market for it as thralls are not slaves to be bought and sold.

 

Quote

At a stone quay stood three great cogs and a dozen smaller ones, taking on plunder and provisions. Victarion gave orders for the Iron Victory to drop anchor. "Have a boat made ready."

...

he town seemed strangely still as they approached. Most of the shops and houses had been looted, as their smashed doors and broken shutters testified, but only the sept had been put to the torch. The streets were strewn with corpses, each with a small flock of carrion crows in attendance. A gang of sullen survivors moved amongst them, chasing off the black birds and tossing the dead into the back of a wagon for burial...

As they neared the shore, he noticed a line of women and children herded up onto the deck of one of the great cogs. Some had their hands bound behind their backs, and all wore loops of hempen rope about their necks. "Who are they?" he asked the men who helped tie up their boat.

"Widows and orphans. They're to be sold as slaves."

"Sold?" There were no slaves in the Iron Islands, only thralls. A thrall was bound to service, but he was not chattel. His children were born free, so long as they were given to the Drowned God. And thralls were never bought nor sold for gold. A man paid the iron price for thralls, or else had none. "They should be thralls, or salt wives," Victarion complained.

"It's by the king's decree," the man said.

"The strong have always taken from the weak," said Nute the Barber. "Thralls or slaves, it makes no matter. Their men could not defend them, so now they are ours, to do with as we will."

It is not the Old Way, he might have said, but there was no time.

 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Old way is dead. or at least

Well, I meant that it never died in the heart of the people. I know that there was done essentially no raiding along the shores of Westeros during the Targaryen reign but people continued to cling to that whole thing as their ideal. Else Balon would never have been able to get the support for his rebellion.

17 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Yes to first two statements and liekly yes for the third too but they still do it out of neccesity and a huge no for the last two parts. The quote below was on the last page but I'm putting it here again, this time relevant bits are bold.

Those are Theon's words. And Theon remembers the Iron Islands as they were when he was young. But that was after the long reign of Quellon Greyjoy. When they have no thralls and other servants then free Ironborn have to work the fields and mines, to be sure. And some those might actually have stayed back now. But we don't know how large the percentage there is. Since they new king seemed to go on a large adventure they may have decided to ignore their fields and mines and go with him.

Euron made it clear he does not exactly look kindly on those pragmatic and peace-loving Ironborn. He killed Baelor Blacktyde. And afterwards precious few lords would have dared to defy him. And their men would have been glad that they could do something else than work and die in those mines.

17 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Old way is no more. There may be a thrall or two serving as a servant here or there, taken by the likes of Euron who venture as far as the free cities at least, but that's it. Not enough for mines and herds and farms. And there wouldn't be a market for it as thralls are not slaves to be bought and sold.

There still a thralls on the Iron Islands, even in Pyke itself. Now, we don't know how Balon got these, but he may very well have taken quite a few during his last rebellion. Somehow I doubt that Robert bothered demanding that they return to their families.

And, sure, Euron doesn't give a shit about the Old Way. He doesn't give a shit about the Ironborn and the Iron Islands. He uses them to get what he wants. The Ironborn are not going to survive the coming wars. Euron will lead them to their destruction, and we can only hope that Aegon, Daenerys, and Jon Snow eradicate the entire Greyjoy line, and cleanse the islands with dragonfire as Aegon should have done.

Or at least install a non-Ironborn overlord there to ensure that their ways and beliefs finally die out.

[Corvo the Crow]

These were on the other thread but I'll post them here also.

Quote

Theon was more interested in ships than gods. Among the masts of countless fishing boats, he spied a Tyroshi trading galley off-loading beside a lumbering Ibbenese cog with her black-tarred hull. A great number of longships, fifty or sixty at the least, stood out to sea or lay beached on the pebbled shore to the north. Some of the sails bore devices from the other islands; the blood moon of Wynch, Lord Goodbrother's banded black warhorn, Harlaw's silver scythe. Theon searched for his uncle Euron's Silence. Of that lean and terrible red ship he saw no sign, but his father's Great Kraken was there, her bow ornamented with a grey iron ram in the shape of its namesake.
Had Lord Balon anticipated him and called the Greyjoy banners? His hand went inside his cloak again, to the oilskin pouch. No one knew of his letter but Robb Stark; they were no fools, to entrust their secrets to a bird. Still, Lord Balon was no fool either. He might well have guessed why his son was coming home at long last, and acted accordingly.

"As to Dagmer, the Cleftjaw is gone to Old Wyk at your father's behest, to roust the Stonehouses and the Drumms."

Your sister has taken Black Wind to Great Wyk, with messages from your lord father. She will return e'er long, you may be sure."

ACOK 11 A portion of Goodbrother strength is already here or maybe it could be a cadet.

 

Quote

Lord Goodbrother of Great Wyk had come in the night before with his main strength, near forty longships. His men were everywhere, conspicuous in their striped goat's hair sashes. It was said about the inn that Otter Gimpknee's whores were being fucked bowlegged by beardless boys in sashes. The boys were welcome to them so far as Theon was concerned

...

The long smoky hall was crowded with his father's lords and captains when Theon entered, near four hundred of them. Dagmer Cleftjaw had not yet returned from Old Wyk with the Stonehouses and Drumms, but all the rest were there—Harlaws from Harlaw, Blacktydes from Blacktyde, Sparrs, Merlyns, and Goodbrothers from Great Wyk, Saltcliffes and Sunderlies from Saltcliffe, and Botleys and Wynches from the other side of Pyke

ACOK 24, Theon Notice how the crew is described. 9 houses mentioned in the near 400, one has near 40 and Iron fleet is 100 if I'm not mistaken.

400-40-100 = 260,  260/8 ~= ~ 33 ship per house on average. There are, of course independent captains and smaller houses like farwynds and cadets with the same names so  most lords would barely have 20 ships, I believe.

Also according to Dagmer and Theon(8ships), Asha(30 ships) has a thousand men, four or five times their number.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There are simply only very few peasants on the Iron Islands, period. The land is not fertile, and the people don't like to sow, anyway. The work on the field is done by thralls, as is most manual labor (including servant work in the castles).

Look even if there aren't many peasants -- I think you're vastly overstating the lack since they need to be offset with thralls -- you're still just ignoring all the rest of the people. They are going to make up the lion's share the people living there, which means more men need to stay behind than you're allowing for. Unless Euron and Balon was benevolent and let them keep all their stores, they need people to feed them. If 9/10 of their food comes from the sea, then they would be dead in months otherwise. Balon and Euron mobilized a ton of men who require a lot of food to survive in an area or areas where they aren't going to be able to feed and defend themselves. The guys working the oars aren't exactly going to be able to fish either.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Look even if there aren't many peasants -- I think you're vastly overstating the lack since they need to be offset with thralls -- you're still just ignoring all the rest of the people. They are going to make up the lion's share the people living there, which means more men need to stay behind than you're allowing for. Unless Euron and Balon was benevolent and let them keep all their stores, they need people to feed them. If 9/10 of their food comes from the sea, then they would be dead in months otherwise. Balon and Euron mobilized a ton of men who require a lot of food to survive in an area or areas where they aren't going to be able to feed and defend themselves. The guys working the oars aren't exactly going to be able to fish either.

As far as I know most Iron Islands are not that big. You can get you ass to the sea and get you some fish yourself.

How Euron's fleet fed itself while they were sailing to the Shields I don't know. Perhaps they took food that was already stored, perhaps they had to fish themselves some provisions before they left? I don't know.

But, well, Euron most likely doesn't give a shit about the people who stayed behind. I could see him letting them there to die.

[Corvo the Crow]

19 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Look even if there aren't many peasants -- I think you're vastly overstating the lack since they need to be offset with thralls -- you're still just ignoring all the rest of the people. They are going to make up the lion's share the people living there, which means more men need to stay behind than you're allowing for. Unless Euron and Balon was benevolent and let them keep all their stores, they need people to feed them. If 9/10 of their food comes from the sea, then they would be dead in months otherwise. Balon and Euron mobilized a ton of men who require a lot of food to survive in an area or areas where they aren't going to be able to feed and defend themselves. The guys working the oars aren't exactly going to be able to fish either.

Women can fish too and they probably do that. I can't think women from the Isles would stay put at home, doing nothing. They would farm and fish even when the men aren't off fighting.

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As far as I know most Iron Islands are not that big. You can get you ass to the sea and get you some fish yourself.

How Euron's fleet fed itself while they were sailing to the Shields I don't know. Perhaps they took food that was already stored, perhaps they had to fish themselves some provisions before they left? I don't know.

But, well, Euron most likely doesn't give a shit about the people who stayed behind. I could see him letting them there to die.

Subsistence fishing without a boat is much, much less reliable than with a boat. You also need people to man the boat, so we're back to square one. And fishing villages are a thing for a reason. Walking 4 hours to go fishing and four hours back each day ( random number) is not a tenable situation.

Euron's fleets supplied themselves the same way the IF did on their way east. They either purchased provisions and fresh water or collected them from their vassals, peasants, thralls, et al.

I absolutely believe that Euron wouldn't care. I believe even more that's irrelevant. He's not a king with absolute power. He can drown Lord Botley when most of his friends and allies would be with Victarion or Asha. He had the right to have Blacktyde killed after he was elected as king and wasn't recognized. The second he wants to condemn everyone's families to death by denying them sources of food, yeah that's gonna be a huge problem. Harlaw calls him out about being to Valyria and the voyage east. You think he wouldn't mention that?

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As far as I know most Iron Islands are not that big. You can get you ass to the sea and get you some fish yourself.

How Euron's fleet fed itself while they were sailing to the Shields I don't know. Perhaps they took food that was already stored, perhaps they had to fish themselves some provisions before they left? I don't know.

But, well, Euron most likely doesn't give a shit about the people who stayed behind. I could see him letting them there to die.

Lord Varys

In general I think you vastly under estimate the number of people needed to keep a society going, if it is at anything above a hunter gatherer stage. You can't just send off all the men and expect a complex society to survive. Sure, the bulk of the able bodied men might be able to go off raiding for a very limited period, but even then, it won't be all of them, and the able bodied men at most only constitute  perhaps 15-20% of the total population.

There is a reason for the 1% mobilization rule of thumb for the mainland kingdoms. It more or less held true for the vast majority of real world medieval situations. For the Iron isles to raise 5 times that ratio  - meaning 5% - would make them special. To go as high as 10% would be extraordinary.

The wildlings are perhaps the only example where every able bodied man became a warrior, and that was because their entire population was on a migration to escape doomsday, and they did not care about maintaining a functioning society in the lands they left behind. The old and the weak just died off along the way, and the 40k or so who arrived at the wall were the remnants of that original nation of maybe 100k or more.

And of them, maybe 10,000 men and women were able bodied fighters in some shape or form.

A 10% mobilization ratio for the Ironborn would be an exceptional achievement in a medieval context.

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Women can fish too and they probably do that. I can't think women from the Isles would stay put at home, doing nothing. They would farm and fish even when the men aren't off fighting.

Every captain is a king. How many women are mentioned in any kingsmoot? Add them up. Women are expected to be salt wives and rock wives. We see Asha and the red hair chick fighting or in the Kingsmoot. The Mormont alone show us more warrior women in one book than all ASOIAF books do for the IB.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Subsistence fishing without a boat is much, much less reliable than with a boat. You also need people to man the boat, so we're back to square one. And fishing villages are a thing for a reason. Walking 4 hours to go fishing and four hours back each day ( random number) is not a tenable situation.

Well, I never said Euron did take all boats on the islands. He would only have taken the ships that can make a journey to Slaver's Bay.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Euron's fleets supplied themselves the same way the IF did on their way east. They either purchased provisions and fresh water or collected them from their vassals, peasants, thralls, et al.

Yeah, but one actually assumes that the way from the Iron Islands to the mouth of the Mander necessitates one or two stops on the way, perhaps even more. But wouldn't then the Reach have been warned of the imminent Ironborn attack in advance? That doesn't make it very likely they actually stopped on the way. But then, that could be a plot hole.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I absolutely believe that Euron wouldn't care. I believe even more that's irrelevant. He's not a king with absolute power. He can drown Lord Botley when most of his friends and allies would be with Victarion or Asha. He had the right to have Blacktyde killed after he was elected as king and wasn't recognized. The second he wants to condemn everyone's families to death by denying them sources of food, yeah that's gonna be a huge problem. Harlaw calls him out about being to Valyria and the voyage east. You think he wouldn't mention that?

Well, I don't think he took all the provisions. I'd agree that he couldn't have done if he wanted to. And it may be that Balon had already stored a lot of food in preparation of (the continuation of) his own war.

 

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lord Varys

In general I think you vastly under estimate the number of people needed to keep a society going, if it at anything above a hunter gatherer stage. You can't just send of all the men and expect a complex society to survive. Sure, the bulk of the able bodied men might be able to go off raiding for a very limited period, but even then, it won't be all of them, and the able bodied men at most only constitute  perhaps 15-20% of the total population.

So what? Women can work, too. And they might even be able-bodied. Now, if you are subsisting on some farm - which most Ironborn sowing would - then you just have to continue the work you are going with fewer men. But you also have to produce less food to survive. Similar things would go for fishing. If a man went fishing with his sons then he will now go fishing with his wife, daughter, or mother. And women who are left completely on their own will do the work all themselves. That's what Ironborn women most likely did, anyway, whenever there men went raiding.

14 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There is a reason for the 1% mobilization rule of thumb for the mainland kingdoms. It more or less held true for the vast majority of real world medieval situations. For the Iron isles to raise 5 times that ratio  - meaning 5% - would make them special. To go as high as 10% would be extraordinary.

Those approximations are mostly based on the fact that those societies didn't exactly have the government structures to mobilize a lot of men. In addition, if 90% or more of the people are a necessary workforce to produce food you simply can't recruit them into an army.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I never said Euron did take all boats on the islands. He would only have taken the ships that can make a journey to Slaver's Bay.

Yeah, but one actually assumes that the way from the Iron Islands to the mouth of the Mander necessitates one or two stops on the way, perhaps even more. But wouldn't then the Reach have been warned of the imminent Ironborn attack in advance? That doesn't make it very likely they actually stopped on the way. But then, that could be a plot hole.

Well, I don't think he took all the provisions. I'd agree that he couldn't have done if he wanted to. And it may be that Balon had already stored a lot of food in preparation of (the continuation of) his own war.

Euron took every war ship, including ones that wouldn't make the voyage. We see hundreds of ships at the kingsmoot and the Reach says 1000 ships are attacking them. Once again, that still leaves us at square one where the fishing boats are almost certainly still there and being used by .... the fishermen. WOIAF says 7 in 10 IB families are fisher folk.

The IB sailed out to sea and attacked from the west. If they had anywhere to stop, it isn't mentioned by the POV characters or anyone else like Paxter Redwyne. The voyage from the Shields/Arbor to the stepstones looks ballpark same than the II to the shields. I don't think they stopped, so they had to stock up for what looks to be a 700-1000 miles journey. That's gonna be about 2 weeks at sea based on Jorah's similarly distanced trip from Lannisport to Bear Island.

Balon had already been at war for over a year and sent 100 ships to hold where you literally can't maintain an army. If Balon had stored lots of food, it was feeding the gathered banners and the IF at MC. 

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Those approximations are mostly based on the fact that those societies didn't exactly have the government structures to mobilize a lot of men. In addition, if 90% or more of the people are a necessary workforce to produce food you simply can't recruit them into an army.

The Ironborn don't have government structures that allow them to mobilize a lot of men. 70% of the families on the Iron Islands are fishermen. How many do you think also have some farmland or are farmers? It might be lower than I'd guess, but his 10% estimate is exceedingly generous.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Euron took every war ship, including ones that wouldn't make the voyage. We see hundreds of ships at the kingsmoot and the Reach says 1000 ships are attacking them. Once again, that still leaves us at square one where the fishing boats are almost certainly still there and being used by .... the fishermen. WOIAF says 7 in 10 IB families are fisher folk.

Well, the idea is that all or most of that fishermen could leave. Who do you think the Ironborn are when they are not raiders? They are fishers. Raiding isn't something only a certain class does. Everybody does it, or at least wants do it.

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The IB sailed out to sea and attacked from the west. If they had anywhere to stop, it isn't mentioned by the POV characters or anyone else like Paxter Redwyne. The voyage from the Shields/Arbor to the stepstones looks ballpark same than the II to the shields. I don't think they stopped, so they had to stock up for what looks to be a 700-1000 miles journey. That's gonna be about 2 weeks at sea based on Jorah's similarly distanced trip from Lannisport to Bear Island.

The Redwyne fleet could have stopped at Pentos, Myr, Tyrosh, Tarth, Estermont, and elsewhere in the Stepstones.

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Balon had already been at war for over a year and sent 100 ships to hold where you literally can't maintain an army. If Balon had stored lots of food, it was feeding the gathered banners and the IF at MC.

He could have continued to store food while his men were away in the North. And who says you can't maintain an army at the banks of the Fever?

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Ironborn don't have government structures that allow them to mobilize a lot of men. 70% of the families on the Iron Islands are fishermen. How many do you think also have some farmland or are farmers? It might be lower than I'd guess, but his 10% estimate is exceedingly generous.

Those islands are not that big. It should be very easy to do that. And I'm pretty sure that most of the fishermen could go. They would leave their women, children, and old people to themselves. This is a hard world, and women on the islands should be able to fish.

This is not a society where people were all that much dependent on other people in the sense that they needed goods to come to them for them to survive.