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Did Varys hint that only one of Rhaegars children died?


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12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio actually subtly mocks Viserys in AGoT. He doesn't care whether he lives or dies because he has Aegon. And he knows that Drogo will do as he, Illyrio, want his to do because he and Varys have the means to do so. They prove that later on with the wine seller attempt. Viserys was dead, yet Drogo was still Illyrio's puppet.

Wrong - Illyrio weeps when he learns of Viserys' death.

Wrong - The moment Drogo "gifted Viserys his crown" (he melted his gold belt for it), the first thing Drogo tells Dany later is that he won't cross the sea and doesn't care about the chair. Drogo had given Viserys his return-gift and that would have been the end of the matter, if not for the assassination attempt on Dany.

Wrong - Illyrio and Varys did not yet know that Viserys was dead when they sent the assassin. Jorah got a message from Illyrio saying that Robert awarded a lordship to a man who killed either Viserys or Dany. Dany even points out that they don't know yet about Viserys, because Drogo is owed a lordship and sobs. Illyrio learns of Viserys's death sometime after, when Drogo has already decided to take the throne for his unborn son, because someone dared to assassinate his wife.

 

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2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Wrong - Illyrio weeps when he learns of Viserys' death.

You actually believe that? If Illyrio ever wept then, most likely, when he heard that Khal Drogo was dead. But not for Viserys the Fool.

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“I shall kill the Usurper myself,” he promised, who had never killed anyone, “as he killed my brother Rhaegar. And Lannister too, the Kingslayer, for what he did to my father.”
“That would be most fitting,” Magister Illyrio said. Dany saw the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips, but her brother did not notice.

That is Illyrio mocking Viserys. He doesn't think that this man who has to borrow a sword from him will kill anyone. He is his pawn. And he will use and discard him how he sees fit.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Wrong - The moment Drogo "gifted Viserys his crown" (he melted his gold belt for it), the first thing Drogo tells Dany later is that he won't cross the sea and doesn't care about the chair. Drogo had given Viserys his return-gift and that would have been the end of the matter, if not for the assassination attempt on Dany.

I know that. This is irrelevant. Varys and Illyrio were planning to arrange an assassination attempt on the Targaryens at Vaes Dothraki, and they knew this would inevitably motivate Drogo to go along with the matter. The mightly Khal Drogo was Varys and Illyrio's pawn, too.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Wrong - Illyrio and Varys did not yet know that Viserys was dead when they sent the assassin. Jorah got a message from Illyrio saying that Robert awarded a lordship to a man who killed either Viserys or Dany. Dany even points out that they don't know yet about Viserys, because Drogo is owed a lordship and sobs. Illyrio learns of Viserys's death sometime after, when Drogo has already decided to take the throne for his unborn son, because someone dared to assassinate his wife.

I know that, too. But that's also irrelevant. Varys and Illyrio didn't need Viserys while they still had Daenerys and Drogo. And they did have them. The important thing is that the Dothraki would invade Westeros. And that they would do that is Varys and Illyrio's doing because they arranged the assassination attempt.

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12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon Connington and Lemore never discuss Viserys with anyone.

You mistook my meaning, JonCon and Lemore discussed "Viserys with Dothraki and GC" as a concept between the two of them

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This is why you have to keep in mind that whatever Tristan Rivers believes Illyrio's plan wasn't doesn't mean he knew the real plan. Viserys also believed Illyrio wanted to help him take his throne. He is mistaken there. Illyrio may have told Strickland (through some agents) that they are supposed to team up with Viserys Targaryen in the near future because that's what he wanted them to believe at that point. After all, the fact that he arranged the marriage between Viserys' sister and Khal Drogo was publicly known.

The fact that Viserys apparently had no idea that the Golden Company would join him and his Dothraki makes it somewhat unlikely that this was actually 'the plan'. The idea that a man like Tristan Rivers is privy to Varys and Illyrio's innermost thoughts is pretty far-fetched. Myles Toyne may have known more, but he is dead.

Until two weeks ago I supposed the same things about Illyrio's attitude towards Viserys as you do. Heck, I assumed he had applied reverse-psychology on Viserys. It was my initial opinion when I started to gather all the quotes and circumstances regarding Illyrio for my essay on him. But the number of sources and circumstances saying otherwise have become too numerous to ignore. And either I could wave all those behaviors and accounts away as "lies" or I could accept that I assumed wrong for a very long time and accept what George is repeatedly telling us about Illyrio - that he is a soft-hearted, sentimental crook. That yes, he's working in the interest of his son, but he isn't callous. That Illyrio isn't LIttlefinger 2.0.

  1. Illyrio trying to convince Viserys to remain, confirmed by 2 sources (Dany and Jorah), including a "blinking reaction" (befuddled, surprised) when Viserys doesn't listen.
  2. Illyrio does not expect Dany to survive, but gives her 3 dragon eggs nonetheless. It's the type of wealth to live easily for the rest of her life.
  3. Viserys dies after Varys and Illyrio organize for an assassination attempt in Robert's name, but before both Illyrio's warning to Jorah AND the poisoner arrives.
  4. The simple man Belwas claims Illyrio wept when he learned of the news that Viserys had died. And Belwas nearly died for Dany. He's fortunate to be alive.
  5. Jorah does what Illyrio wants and reports Illyio's recommendations, until Dany is widowed. The more he reveals he's attracted to Dany, the more he starts to cast doubts about Illyrio, which he does about any other male helper with her, even men who're true to her (like Selmy).
  6. Illyrio sends 3 ships full of merchandize (which according to Jorah in aGoT would be equal in value as 3 dragon eggs) to Dany to sail her to Pentos, but does not begrudge her selling his stuff and conquering Slaver's Bay.
  7. Illyrio has servants at his home who can understand the common tongue and report to Illyrio about Tyrion, but do not speak themselves. Note that the boy on the ship acts similarly. Are these grown-up birds, and hence they aren't killed, but hired for life by Illyrio on his ships and at his manse.
  8. Illyrio does not poison Tyrion and tries to talk him out of suicidal operations.
  9. Illyrio acts and behaves surprisingly sentimental, and not just about Aegon. But grateful that Varys chose him to protect him, and gives him whatever he asks for. He praises Varys as "doing his magic".
  10. He chose to have the Prince's doors closed on him to marry the bedwarmer in his possession already. He keeps her locket and her stone hands.
  11. While he has Aegon raised into believing he's another man's son, a dead man, Illyrio also expresses emotional sadness over it.
  12. And while Aegon has tutors that we think are likelty the best (most sincere) of their profession, they're actually some of the cheapest to hire
  13. JonCon and Lemore know about Viserys and Drogo, and talk of Illyrio not expecting them to die that young.
  14. Tristan Rivers argues about Illyrio's failed plans in front of every other captain who clearly have the same info by their non-reaction, saying that the Golden Company was to join the Dothraki and Viserys [upon the moment of conquest], then Dany with her 3 dragons on her way to Pentos, and finally to Volantis.
  15. Harry Strickland argues they need Dany otherwise Westeros will regard Aegon an imposter.
  16. The contract with the Golden Company is writ in blood, and wasn't paid for
  17. The Golden Company believes Aegon to be Rhaegar's son, a Tagaryen
  18. The Golden Company doesn't care about Blackfyres anymore and just want to go back home and install their Targaryen
  19. Only Harry Strickland shows disinterest in going home and both Dany and Aegon, whom he believes both to be Targaryens
  20. Harry Strickland is more upset about breaking a contract to Myr and perhaps the Yunkai, than breaking the contract with Illyrio

We have no evidence whatsoever that Illyrio intends to actually harm anyone, and a lot of the circumstantial evidence (and there's lots of it) pointing to Illyrio either wanting to help people or act to prevent true harm to come to someone, and accounts of grief when someone did come to harm. Compare that to mastermind Littlefinger - we know how much and how often he intended and has harmed people. We saw him kill someone.

I can only conclude that any assumption that Illyrio wants to harm and intends someone to come to harm is just that - an assumption with no evidence whatsoever backing it up, but that we cling to, expecting one day to have it confirmed.

Add then the sudden and often time mentioned deal to give the Tattered Prince Pentos, the cleaver image once in direct tie to Illyrio, a second time at the start of a character's journey that we witness leading to that deal, who basically tries to do what Tyrion dissuaded Aegon from doing (proposing marriage to Dany)... that's a lot of doom for Pentos and Ilyrio suggestions all of a sudden in the last book, repeatedly. And add George telling us twice over in the same chapter that all of Illyrio's expectations have failed. And that's when one at least should consider - what if Illyrio turns up dead in the next book (towards the end) and we never get more inside info on Illyrio than what we've been given? Is then what we have enough to make a coherent hypothesis on Illyrio's plan? Yes, though it requires us to chuck out year-long held assumptions about lllyrio.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a reasonable assumption on the basis of the knowledge that he has. And in fact the whole 'west instead of east' routine doesn't work the way it is supposed to where George put it in the end. Neither Tyrion nor Aegon know or even suspect that Dany is not coming west. So any conversation with Aegon about Dany being a queen in the east makes no sense. They both still expect Dany to come to Volantis and thus that she is going to come to Aegon, not the other way around. Aegon has no intention to go visit his aunt at that point. That isn't the plan.

Beside the point. My argument wasn't that Illyrio's expectation was unreasonable. My argument is that his expectations consistently end up not coming about

  • Expects Viserys and Dothraki to be able to join with the Golden Company : Viserys and Drogo die, khalasar disperses
  • Expects Dany not to survive the Dothraki: she survives the Dothraki, a pyre, the red waste, the HotU, oh and hatches 3 dragons
  • Expects Dany to sail for Pentos: she sacks Astapor, Yunkai and Mereen
  • Expects Dany to march/sail for Volantis to conquer Westeros: she stays in Mereen
  • Expects Dany and Aegon to marry: she marries a smuck like Hizdar for peace
  • Expects Tyrion to be of great, smart service to his dragon: advizes him to start conquering castles in Westeros with 10000 soldiers, but ends up in Mereen

Illyrio's track record is well bad.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not in accordance with the text.

I suspect you mistook my meaning of "Why even bother?" That wasn't about leaving Mereen, but marrying Aegon.

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She would be quite likely to have lost many men on a march on the demon road (or lost some ships at sea), and gladly welcome the help her nephew Aegon and the 10,000 men of the Golden Company could give her. Her Unsullied and sellsword companies would be well and good, but not enough. And the price for the support of the Golden Company would be Aegon's hand. She would pay it. Just as she would have married Quentyn had he showed up with 10,000 Dornish spears. She even implies as much in ADwD.

 

You think she would have married Quentyn if he had showed up with 10,000 Dornish spears? Dany wanted Mereen, wanted peace. Quentyn offered her at least the backing of a whole kingdom in Westeros. She wasn't interested.

Regardless, Tyrion's whole point to Aegon and to the readers is that a girl who has just conquered and sacked three cities, acquired her own army of Unsullied, has the loyalty of sellsword companies without having to make any deal for it whatsoever, and 3 dragons will believe she has earned the right to do as she pleases, and marrying an untested young man (even with 10000 soldiers, and better looks than Quentyn) just because he's her nephew, has a company and Illyrio's help might not figure in her calculations. Tyrion's the one who recognizes that Dany is on her own plan and acting on her own desires and whims, and feels she earned that right and power to do so. He's the one to recognize that twice before she defied Illyrio's expectations - she survives, she veers east to Slaver's Bay.

And this is something that Illyrio fails to recognize about her character and her development. I don't blame him for that, but his expectations have a poor track record, because his insight into both Viserys and Dany is flawed. Which means that his (original) plans were based on that flawed insight from the get go, both in 297 AC as they are in 300 AC.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon Connington and Lemore never discuss Viserys with anyone. I think you are confusing Tristan Rivers mentioning the Dothraki and Viserys during the war council. But Lemore isn't there then. And Jon Connington doesn't comment or think about the stuff Rivers says. We don't know if the things the man said were known to him before or not.

They discuss Viserys with each other. You misread my sentence, but I grant you that it was poorly worded and the misreading is to be expected.

When I said, "That JonCon and Lemore discuss Viserys with Dothraki and Golden Company implies that", I don't mean "Viserys" is the sole subject, but "Viserys with Dothraki and Golden Company" is the subject. JonCon mentions Viserys and Drogo dying in one sentence. Furthermore their discussion is born out of JonCon's intention to go meet the Golden Company and introduce Aegon to them. And his personal thoughts are about being tired of waiting and hiding.

We can infer that JonCon and Lemore discuss what Tristan Flowers openly discusses later - that the Golden Company was supposed to meet up with Viserys and Dothraki - because Tristan is also expressing the same impatience and being sick of Illyrio's plans. That is my "Viserys with Dothraki and Golden Company" about. 

But it was poorly worded and after rereading I saw that you could read it as 'JonCon and Lemore discuss "Viserys" with the Dothraki and the GC'.  I should have written it as Viserys + Dothraki + GC.

Why can we infer that JonCon knows about the plan having been "Viserys + Dothraki + GC + him and Aegon"? His impatience. JonCon wants to come out (about Aegon) and wants to go home to Westeros. That coming out has been delayed to an estimated 2 years now, exactly because Illyrio's plans never work out as Illyrio expects them to. JonCon cites the death of Viserys, Drogo, and then Dany not going to Pentos and staying in Mereen. Of course for JonCon there is the additional time pressure for he has Greyscale. Now it turns out several pages later in the same chapter that the GC has been waiting for 2 years now as well, each time being told "Be ready for when Viserys has his Dothraki! You're going home". And then "Oh no, wait, sorry, Viserys and Drogo died." Followed by, "We are still in go ahead mode! Be ready for when Dany arrives in Pentos with 3 dragons. You're going home." And then that sizzles out. The boys might as well take on a contract with Myr. "Hi guys! It's a go! She'll be in Volantis we estimate then! You're going home!!!!" The GC breaks their contract with Myr, they go to Volantis, no Dany, and they're tepid in their first response to JonCon about Aegon. Only when Aegon and JonCon sound like having their own plans too, and not merely following Illyrio's plans and directions anymore, they all jump to the chance. JonCon and the GC share the feeling that Illyio has been tugging at their desire to go home too much the past 2 years without following through, so now they'll do it, whether it's exactly as Illyrio wants it or not.

No, we don't get JonCon's specific thoughts on Tristan's words. Now if JonCon KNEW for two years already that the GC was to meet up with Viserys and Dothraki, JonCon has no reason whatsoever to linger on it in words or thoughts. If what Tristan says falls exactly in line with JonCon's information about what was planned 2 years ago, it would be very odd and just bad writing if George was to add him thinking, "Ah, check the box of confirmation that the GC were to meet up with Visery as I was told 2 years ago. Illyrio wans't lying to me then." Duh! That's the type of writing of a 7 year old. 7 year olds tend to cover all their bases in storytelling like that. Adult authors expect their adult readers to make some conclusions on their own. It's cute when a 7 year old writes such a thing. It's awful if an adult author does it. 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know where the Shy Maid was before they collected Tyrion. Nor do we know what previous plans of theirs were. That's all unclear.

It's not spelled out. That doesn't mean it's "all unclear". We can use the discussion between Lemore and JonCon to conclude they were put on alert for something since the start of 298 AC.

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That isn't clear at all. In fact, we don't even know why on earth he and Varys did include Tyrion into their plans. The dwarf is now soiled goods. He is a kinslayer and kingslayer. Neither Aegon's nor Dany's cause could profit from them being associated with him. And they must know that. There might be an ulterior motive to all that.

It is clear once you look at all the evidence we have (see my list at the start).

As for including Tyrion: Careful reading shows that Varys initially did not include Tyrion in his plans. Jaime forced Varys in rescuing him, when it's obvious that Varys had no intention initially to do such a thing. More, while I agree with the speculation that Varys was way too specific about the way to get into the Hand's tower, I don't agree that Varys wanted Tyrion to kill Tywin. Tywin assures Tyrion he still plans to send him to the Wall and that it required Mace's agreement. Cersei's second chapter in aFfC reveals that Mace and Tywin talked often and made several agreements. I'd say that Mace made a bargain with Tywin: Tyrion gets a chance to take the black if my uncle Garth gets a position on the small council. I think Varys knew of this deal, and didn't protest too much to Tyrion going to his father, hoping that Tywin and Tyrion would see eye to eye. Instead, Tyrion ends up killing his father and Varys has no other option to go in hiding himself. Hence he reproaches Tyrion. But having made himself a mortal enemy to Lannisters, and in Varys's mind likely having learned his lessons about whores, they might as well use Tyrion's smarts. So, Tyrion is sent to Pentos with Varys informing Illyrio the dwarf is clever.

Meanwhile JonCon isn't happy with Tyrion as recruit on the boat, but accepts him reluctantly, and puts him to work - to write down all he knows about dragons. If Illyrio had ulterior motives though, he completely failed to inform JonCon about it though, which would serve what? If say they handed JonCon Tyrion to give him to Dany to kill for example, as a prisoner, then JonCon would need to be informed about that, no?

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"Please her? Has Illyrio taken leave of his senses? Why does he imagine that Her Grace would welcome the service of a self-confessed kingslayer and betrayer?"

Obviously Illyrio wrote about Tyrion having killed Tywin, but by JonCon's above comment the letter lacks any particular instructions on what to do with Tyrion.

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"Spare me your irony. I will take you as far as Volantis. If you show yourself to be obedient and useful, you may remain with us, to serve the queen as best you can. Prove yourself more trouble than you are worth, and you can go your own way."

Oh, and JonCon ends up jumping after Tyrion to save him from drowning.

Nope,no ulterior motive there.

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

But you made the claim that Illyrio didn't give the eggs to Dany to sell. And that is simply not the case. He gave them to her as a wedding gift, and she sure as hell can do whatever the hell she wants with her wedding gifts. There is no hint whatsoever that Illyrio urged or told her not to sell them, give them to her handmaidens, throw them away, misplace them, etc.

And that's why it makes no sense to assume he intended her to save at least one of them for somebody else (Aegon, in your opinion).

Dany could hypothetically have done with those eggs whatever she wished to do with them. And I never claimed that Illyrio urged or told her anything about them. That still doesn't mean that Illyrio could not have hoped she would one day give an egg to Aegon.

He's giving a "gift", a very pricy and highly symbolic "gift" to a woman who's about to learn the Dothraki ways. And the Dothraki ways are "if someone gifts you something, then one day you'll gift them something in return". While Dany is Viserys's gift to Drogo, Illyrio gives her 3 dragon eggs. This implies that Dany is beholden to do something for him some time in the future. After learning enough of the value of those eggs, and after adapting to the Dothraki ways, Dany comes to the intuitive realisation that Illyrio didn't give her those eggs to sell. She also comprehends at the start of aSoS that she owes Illyrio something, when Jorah tries to persuade her to buy the Unsullied with the merchandize and ships of Illyrio.

Illyrio knows enough of the Dothraki to use the eggs in this way.

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

No, because Dany only considers to give the eggs to Viserys, her brother and true king, who seems to need them for his war. She has no such connection to this Aegon person, and no need to support this person in any way, shape, or form. Nor does she has any reason to give him gifts to support his claim that he is her nephew.

At the time she doesn't know Aegon :rolleyes:

 

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is a completely invalid argument. You are conflating things.

That is not invalid at all. It's adding everything up.

 

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

And can you give me any example where your way of interpreting clues to future developments in the books is actually pointing towards an event that already happened? Did George foreshadow the deaths of Lysa, Tywin, Joffrey, Jeor, Catelyn, etc. in such a convoluted manner. I'm not talking about blatantly obvious clues like Sansa's irrational fear of Ilyn Payne or all the prophetic hints, I'm talking about stuff as convoluted as your 'golden goose' story there. 

The Red Wedding. Plenty of symbolic foreshadowing for it as well as imagery as well as hints of plans by those who planned it

 

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense. Illyrio has a vast net of informers and contacts. If Daenerys Targaryen is taken to Vaes Dothrak by Khal Jhaqo he will learn that before she comes knocking at his door. Anything else would be ridiculous.

It still takes time for that vast net of informers and contacts to pass the info to Illyrio. There's no telephone, not even ravens in Essos. It all has to be done by ship or overland by caravan and horse. And well ships are a whole mess by the end of aDwD. Ironborn empounding every ship they can in Slaver's Bay. Volantis blocking ships to go east. Ironborn at Westeros. Pirates at the Stepstones. That sort of hampers trade and news getting to Pentos by ship, other than the random ship that managed to survive it all if coming from the south.

Overland? Vaes Dothrak to Pentos takes several months, especially with a caravan.

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense, either. George has begun an intricate Meereenese story there, a story that will have to be resolved. The Pale Mare is going to kill people but it has done so throughout the last book, too. Dany's Ghiscari people - reformed Ghiscari and freedmen - are in the majority now. They won't leave Slaver's Bay without their queen, and neither will the Unsullied or Daario's people (assuming he survives).

They will flee if hundreds of bodies have been flung across the wall into the city. Yes, there was Pale Mare for a while, with everyone attempting to try and keep it out of the city. There have been people infected inside nevertheless, but people have tried to keep it isolated and burned the bodies. But the last act by the Yunkai is of another degree. Most believe their queen is dead. Even Selmy begins to believe she died. But hey, if you think George had those bodies thrown across the walls of Mereen without any plot purpose, without giving the peope of Mereen the most primary reason to abandon Mereen and treat it is as salted ground, then I have a very nice Valyrian villa for sale.

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

I meant 'taking the war to Daenerys' in the sense that they are going to try to kill her before there is a war. By trying to assassinate her. If Dany knows who is behind that sure as hell could be seen as an act of war. And if it is nearly successful she sure as hell would be very angry.

I know what you meant. Still, don't see how Illyrio is going to accomplish that on time, given the issues that you do not want to recognize.

 

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but that doesn't mean they couldn't have assassinated her and Drogo if they had wanted to. They could have.

But they didn't. Also they knew exactly where she was going, the moment she married Drogo (he'd go to Vaes Dothrak). Now she's reported dead, has means of untrackable transport (Drogon), and they are reliant on word reaching them of her whereabouts before they can send word or someone back to assassinate her, while there's a whole blockade in the southern seas.

On 31/5/2017 at 6:29 PM, Lord Varys said:

Why don't you think that fat guy could not also have a real role to play? But even if he isn't

He had a real role to play - he saved Dany's life. It's a miracl ehe survived it at all.

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, it is not that difficult for Varys and Illyrio to arrange an assassination.

It is under the current circumstances.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You actually believe that? If Illyrio ever wept then, most likely, when he heard that Khal Drogo was dead. But not for Viserys the Fool.

I do now, yes. Although I do think it was more because of seeing his plans and work of years go up in smoke.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is Illyrio mocking Viserys. He doesn't think that this man who has to borrow a sword from him will kill anyone. He is his pawn. And he will use and discard him how he sees fit.

Yes and no. Yes, he mocks Viserys. Yes, Viserys is a pawn. Yes, he will eventually discard him. But no, he's not a callous man like Littlefinger. The mistake imo that we (and I include myself with that for a long while) make is to regard ulterior motives solely as an either/or proposition, black and white, rather than consider that it's possible that it's far more grey. Because Illyrio is planning to get Aegon recognized as Rhaegar's son and in King's Landing in power, we automatically assume that he means to do so in a parasitic way, but I now consider this to have been far more a symbiotic plan. Both a parasite as a symbiot take something from someone else. Except a parasite never gives something back, a symbiot does, and a symbiot is not out to do harm. If however, the partner in the symbiotic cooperative drops dead, the symbiot will look for a new partner or new host to do the same thing for him as the previous one. Considering the information we're given years later in aDwD about Illyrio wishing no ill on Viserys I think we are looking at someone aiming for a symbiotic relationship.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know that, too. But that's also irrelevant.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know that. This is irrelevant.

Well then why bring it up and make false claims about it?

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5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

You mistook my meaning, JonCon and Lemore discussed "Viserys with Dothraki and GC" as a concept between the two of them.

They only discussed the Golden Company. Back in 'The Lost Lord'. Viserys never comes up then.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Until two weeks ago I supposed the same things about Illyrio's attitude towards Viserys as you do. Heck, I assumed he had applied reverse-psychology on Viserys. It was my initial opinion when I started to gather all the quotes and circumstances regarding Illyrio for my essay on him. But the number of sources and circumstances saying otherwise have become too numerous to ignore. And either I could wave all those behaviors and accounts away as "lies" or I could accept that I assumed wrong for a very long time and accept what George is repeatedly telling us about Illyrio - that he is a soft-hearted, sentimental crook. That yes, he's working in the interest of his son, but he isn't callous. That Illyrio isn't LIttlefinger 2.0.

Nobody ever said he was. And I'm not sure that Illyrio really wanted Viserys dead. At least not at that point. But he doesn't consider him a real asset. He is a pawn. We simply don't know yet what the original plan for Aegon was in relation to Viserys. It might be revealed in the future. But the idea that we already have all the pieces to determine that is silly in my opinion. This series is not yet complete. And we might get crucial information until the last page is completed.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio trying to convince Viserys to remain, confirmed by 2 sources (Dany and Jorah), including a "blinking reaction" (befuddled, surprised) when Viserys doesn't listen.

I think he was genuine when he wanted to convince him to stay. But that doesn't mean he wanted to introduce Viserys to Aegon. Or cared all that much about his life outside the plans he had for him.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio does not expect Dany to survive, but gives her 3 dragon eggs nonetheless. It's the type of wealth to live easily for the rest of her life.

We don't know why Illyrio gave Dany the dragon eggs. Nor do we know whether he was genuine when he talked about Dany not surviving the Dothraki Sea. We don't know how Illyrio reacted when he heard about the hatched dragon eggs. We don't know if he was surprised.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Viserys dies after Varys and Illyrio organize for an assassination attempt in Robert's name, but before both Illyrio's warning to Jorah AND the poisoner arrives.

I know. Why are you telling me this?

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. The simple man Belwas claims Illyrio wept when he learned of the news that Viserys had died. And Belwas nearly died for Dany. He's fortunate to be alive.

So what? We don't know what motivates Belwas. Or how simple he is. Varys is an actor. Illyrio's various servants are actors and spies. Can't Belwas be an actor, spy, and assassin, too?

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio sends 3 ships full of merchandize (which according to Jorah in aGoT would be equal in value as 3 dragon eggs) to Dany to sail her to Pentos, but does not begrudge her selling his stuff and conquering Slaver's Bay.

Doesn't he? We don't know how he feels about Dany not returning to Pentos. I'm inclined to believe that he was pissed about that.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio has servants at his home who can understand the common tongue and report to Illyrio about Tyrion, but do not speak themselves. Note that the boy on the ship acts similarly. Are these grown-up birds, and hence they aren't killed, but hired for life by Illyrio on his ships and at his manse.

I've long been suggesting this. At least for the cabin boy (Tyrion shows how much of a moron he is when he imagines the cabin boy will talk). The fat women most likely are different, the red-head might be a former mouse or bird. And the mice still kept their tongues, anyway. 

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio does not poison Tyrion and tries to talk him out of suicidal operations.

Sure. Because he intends to use him for his own ends. Ends we don't yet completely understand. And it may even be that the tale of his true love Serra and her sad end is a lie designed to bond with Tyrion. Varys would have briefed Illyrio on Tyrion, especially about the murders of Tywin and Shae.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Illyrio acts and behaves surprisingly sentimental, and not just about Aegon. But grateful that Varys chose him to protect him, and gives him whatever he asks for. He praises Varys as "doing his magic".

We don't yet know who the driving force in the partnership is. Did Varys or Illyrio come up with the Aegon plan? We don't know. However, Illyrio certainly has a good reason to be grateful to Varys since he made him a magister of Pentos. The magic comment might have been more a funny remark than a compliment, especially in light of Varys' castration.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. He chose to have the Prince's doors closed on him to marry the bedwarmer in his possession already. He keeps her locket and her stone hands.

That's what he says. And if that bedwarmer was who he had to marry to create the son he needed for the plan he would marry her. Never mind the Prince. The plan is apparently more important than good relations with a powerless figurehead.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. While he has Aegon raised into believing he's another man's son, a dead man, Illyrio also expresses emotional sadness over it.

Sure, why shouldn't he? Even more so if he truly was in love with Serra and the boy reminded him of her. Assuming she even existed.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. And while Aegon has tutors that we think are likelty the best (most sincere) of their profession, they're actually some of the cheapest to hire.

Are they? Duck, perhaps. But I doubt Connington, Haldon, and Lemore are working for free.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Tristan Rivers argues about Illyrio's failed plans in front of every other captain who clearly have the same info by their non-reaction, saying that the Golden Company was to join the Dothraki and Viserys [upon the moment of conquest], then Dany with her 3 dragons on her way to Pentos, and finally to Volantis.

Sure, Rivers is likely not having any special knowledge the other captains don't have. Illyrio's people would have talked to Strickland, and Strickland - as he himself admits - would have then told the plan to the captains. But we don't know whether the officers had known anything about the plan prior to that. Could be. Or not. We don't know. It took the Golden Company quite some time to get from the Disputed Lands to Volon Therys.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. Harry Strickland argues they need Dany otherwise Westeros will regard Aegon an imposter.

Sure. Because Strickland isn't exactly eager to go through with the plan. And because he is right there. Dragons and a Targaryen marriage look a lot better than what they end up doing. But this doesn't mean giving Aegon legitimacy through Dany or Viserys was part of the original. Varys and Illyrio aren't as reluctant as Strickland.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. The contract with the Golden Company is writ in blood, and wasn't paid for.

I know that. That most likely means Illyrio owns the Golden Company because he is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and Aegor Rivers.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  1. The Golden Company believes Aegon to be Rhaegar's son, a Tagaryen.
  2. The Golden Company doesn't care about Blackfyres anymore and just want to go back home and install their Targaryen
  3. Only Harry Strickland shows disinterest in going home and both Dany and Aegon, whom he believes both to be Targaryens
  4. Harry Strickland is more upset about breaking a contract to Myr and perhaps the Yunkai, than breaking the contract with Illyrio

Strickland's behavior indicates that he wasn't on board with the plan in the beginning.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

We have no evidence whatsoever that Illyrio intends to actually harm anyone, and a lot of the circumstantial evidence (and there's lots of it) pointing to Illyrio either wanting to help people or act to prevent true harm to come to someone, and accounts of grief when someone did come to harm. Compare that to mastermind Littlefinger - we know how much and how often he intended and has harmed people. We saw him kill someone.

We also hear Illyrio talk about Varys having killed people in the past. And we know that Dany has heard rumors about him selling anyone for the right price. And Tyrion is very aware of the fact that Illyrio is going to kill him should he conclude he was of no use.

And Illyrio caring about himself and his friends is no surprise. Pretty much everyone does. Even Littlefinger care about people. Not so many but a few. And I doubt he would have murdered Lysa had she not threatened Sansa.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Add then the sudden and often time mentioned deal to give the Tattered Prince Pentos, the cleaver image once in direct tie to Illyrio, a second time at the start of a character's journey that we witness leading to that deal, who basically tries to do what Tyrion dissuaded Aegon from doing (proposing marriage to Dany)... that's a lot of doom for Pentos and Ilyrio suggestions all of a sudden in the last book, repeatedly. And add George telling us twice over in the same chapter that all of Illyrio's expectations have failed. And that's when one at least should consider - what if Illyrio turns up dead in the next book (towards the end) and we never get more inside info on Illyrio than what we've been given? Is then what we have enough to make a coherent hypothesis on Illyrio's plan? Yes, though it requires us to chuck out year-long held assumptions about lllyrio.

That isn't the way George writes his stories. Illyrio and Varys are at heart of the Aegon story, and that's not going to go away soon. There is potential for more conflict there, not less. Illyrio might finally want to be with his son once the boy has become king. He might no longer care about secrecy and stuff. And that could give things a very interesting spin.

Pentos may fall but if Illyrio does not see that coming he would have to be as stupid as Lollys Stokeworth.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Beside the point. My argument wasn't that Illyrio's expectation was unreasonable. My argument is that his expectations consistently end up not coming about

  • Expects Viserys and Dothraki to be able to join with the Golden Company : Viserys and Drogo die, khalasar disperses
  • Expects Dany not to survive the Dothraki: she survives the Dothraki, a pyre, the red waste, the HotU, oh and hatches 3 dragons
  • Expects Dany to sail for Pentos: she sacks Astapor, Yunkai and Mereen
  • Expects Dany to march/sail for Volantis to conquer Westeros: she stays in Mereen
  • Expects Dany and Aegon to marry: she marries a smuck like Hizdar for peace
  • Expects Tyrion to be of great, smart service to his dragon: advizes him to start conquering castles in Westeros with 10000 soldiers, but ends up in Mereen

Illyrio's track record is well bad.

That is completely irrelevant. A lot of people don't get what they want. They can continue to try. And Aegon will be king, never mind all the changed plans.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

You think she would have married Quentyn if he had showed up with 10,000 Dornish spears? Dany wanted Mereen, wanted peace. Quentyn offered her at least the backing of a whole kingdom in Westeros. She wasn't interested.

Again, you don't seem to know the books all that well:

Quote

“It would please me if he [Quentyn] had turned up with these fifty thousand swords he speaks of. Instead he brings two knights and a parchment. Will a parchment shield my people from the Yunkai’i? If he had come with a fleet …”

That makes it clear that Quentyn's chances would have been much better had he brought the men Dany needed to deal with her enemies.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Regardless, Tyrion's whole point to Aegon and to the readers is that a girl who has just conquered and sacked three cities, acquired her own army of Unsullied, has the loyalty of sellsword companies without having to make any deal for it whatsoever, and 3 dragons will believe she has earned the right to do as she pleases, and marrying an untested young man (even with 10000 soldiers, and better looks than Quentyn) just because he's her nephew, has a company and Illyrio's help might not figure in her calculations. Tyrion's the one who recognizes that Dany is on her own plan and acting on her own desires and whims, and feels she earned that right and power to do so. He's the one to recognize that twice before she defied Illyrio's expectations - she survives, she veers east to Slaver's Bay.

Aegon would have had such chances, too, with the Golden Company and the fact that he was a member of her family.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And this is something that Illyrio fails to recognize about her character and her development. I don't blame him for that, but his expectations have a poor track record, because his insight into both Viserys and Dany is flawed. Which means that his (original) plans were based on that flawed insight from the get go, both in 297 AC as they are in 300 AC.

Tyrion just guesses stuff about Daenerys. He is greatly mistaken about his ridiculous idea that Dany will come to Aegon's help. She will come to destroy him.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Why can we infer that JonCon knows about the plan having been "Viserys + Dothraki + GC + him and Aegon"? His impatience. JonCon wants to come out (about Aegon) and wants to go home to Westeros. That coming out has been delayed to an estimated 2 years now, exactly because Illyrio's plans never work out as Illyrio expects them to. JonCon cites the death of Viserys, Drogo, and then Dany not going to Pentos and staying in Mereen. Of course for JonCon there is the additional time pressure for he has Greyscale. Now it turns out several pages later in the same chapter that the GC has been waiting for 2 years now as well, each time being told "Be ready for when Viserys has his Dothraki! You're going home". And then "Oh no, wait, sorry, Viserys and Drogo died." Followed by, "We are still in go ahead mode! Be ready for when Dany arrives in Pentos with 3 dragons. You're going home." And then that sizzles out. The boys might as well take on a contract with Myr. "Hi guys! It's a go! She'll be in Volantis we estimate then! You're going home!!!!" The GC breaks their contract with Myr, they go to Volantis, no Dany, and they're tepid in their first response to JonCon about Aegon. Only when Aegon and JonCon sound like having their own plans too, and not merely following Illyrio's plans and directions anymore, they all jump to the chance. JonCon and the GC share the feeling that Illyio has been tugging at their desire to go home too much the past 2 years without following through, so now they'll do it, whether it's exactly as Illyrio wants it or not.

So what? Connington can go without allies if he wants to. But that would be stupid or doomed to failure. If he could arrange a deal with the Dothraki are conjure up another army he would have done so. Connington only has enough when he realizes he no longer has time because of the greyscale. That's the deciding factor there, nothing else.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

No, we don't get JonCon's specific thoughts on Tristan's words. Now if JonCon KNEW for two years already that the GC was to meet up with Viserys and Dothraki, JonCon has no reason whatsoever to linger on it in words or thoughts. If what Tristan says falls exactly in line with JonCon's information about what was planned 2 years ago, it would be very odd and just bad writing if George was to add him thinking, "Ah, check the box of confirmation that the GC were to meet up with Visery as I was told 2 years ago. Illyrio wans't lying to me then." Duh! That's the type of writing of a 7 year old. 7 year olds tend to cover all their bases in storytelling like that. Adult authors expect their adult readers to make some conclusions on their own. It's cute when a 7 year old writes such a thing. It's awful if an adult author does it. 

That is a ridiculous scenario. What is a fact is that we don't know whether Connington and the Golden Company were on the same page there. We simply don't. George very often has his characters not think thoughts they should have thought or share information with the reader they actually do have. The conclusion that them not doing so means they don't know stuff, don't want to share stuff, or agree with the people they are talking to simply isn't the case.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It's not spelled out. That doesn't mean it's "all unclear". We can use the discussion between Lemore and JonCon to conclude they were put on alert for something since the start of 298 AC.

They sure were. They were on the alert since they were given Aegon.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As for including Tyrion: Careful reading shows that Varys initially did not include Tyrion in his plans. Jaime forced Varys in rescuing him, when it's obvious that Varys had no intention initially to do such a thing.

It is very unlikely that Varys was surprised by Jaime, or that Varys let himself being blackmailed by that cripple. He could have killed Jaime. He could have betrayed Jaime. He could have handed Jaime to Tywin and Cersei on a silver plate, as a traitor and criminal. He was under no pressure to do what he wanted of him.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

More, while I agree with the speculation that Varys was way too specific about the way to get into the Hand's tower, I don't agree that Varys wanted Tyrion to kill Tywin. Tywin assures Tyrion he still plans to send him to the Wall and that it required Mace's agreement.

Tywin is a liar. And Tyrion was sentenced to death at the end of the trial-by-combat. This matter was settled. The Seven declared him guilty and Tywin delivered the sentence. If Tywin had wanted him to go to the Wall he would offered him that choice after the trial.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Cersei's second chapter in aFfC reveals that Mace and Tywin talked often and made several agreements. I'd say that Mace made a bargain with Tywin: Tyrion gets a chance to take the black if my uncle Garth gets a position on the small council.

Tywin had no reason to make a deal with Mace over that. You are conflating things. Mace had power as one of the three judges when there was still a conventional trial. But Mace had no say in the trial-by-combat. The gods (or rather Oberyn and Gregor) decided Tyrion's fate. And it was Tywin who condemned Tyrion to death. And perhaps he had no other choice. We don't know whether a pardon is possible in a trial-by-combat.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I think Varys knew of this deal, and didn't protest too much to Tyrion going to his father, hoping that Tywin and Tyrion would see eye to eye. Instead, Tyrion ends up killing his father and Varys has no other option to go in hiding himself. Hence he reproaches Tyrion. But having made himself a mortal enemy to Lannisters, and in Varys's mind likely having learned his lessons about whores, they might as well use Tyrion's smarts. So, Tyrion is sent to Pentos with Varys informing Illyrio the dwarf is clever.

That doesn't make any sense. For one, Varys has a ship ready to deliver Tyrion to Pentos. How likely is it that he arranged all that just because Jaime forced him? Then there is the fact that Varys needed Tywin gone and the Lannisters weakened to prevent them from interfering with the Dany-Aegon plan.

They don't really need Tyrion. Varys and Illyrio are smarter and more politically savvy than Tyrion. And their reputation is not as fucked up nor are there as ugly as he is.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Meanwhile JonCon isn't happy with Tyrion as recruit on the boat, but accepts him reluctantly, and puts him to work - to write down all he knows about dragons. If Illyrio had ulterior motives though, he completely failed to inform JonCon about it though, which would serve what? If say they handed JonCon Tyrion to give him to Dany to kill for example, as a prisoner, then JonCon would need to be informed about that, no?

Jon Connington received a letter from Illyrio. Tyrion and we don't know what was in there. It may have contained important information we have no idea about.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Obviously Illyrio wrote about Tyrion having killed Tywin, but by JonCon's above comment the letter lacks any particular instructions on what to do with Tyrion.

Connington gives the impression that he is going to decide what to do with Tyrion but it might be that he has gotten precise orders by Illyrio. If so, there is no reason why he should give Tyrion any hint in that direction. And I never said Illyrio and Varys would have told Connington everything. They don't. That's a pattern.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Dany could hypothetically have done with those eggs whatever she wished to do with them. And I never claimed that Illyrio urged or told her anything about them. That still doesn't mean that Illyrio could not have hoped she would one day give an egg to Aegon.

It just doesn't make any sense to assume something like that. Illyrio could also have hoped that Dany would eat those eggs. Or crush them to make some sort aphrodisiac. Pointing out that I (or anyone) hasn't proven a negative is a fallacy. You made a positive claim here. You gave the impression you knew what Illyrio intended Daenerys to do with those eggs and you can't prove that this is the case.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He's giving a "gift", a very pricy and highly symbolic "gift" to a woman who's about to learn the Dothraki ways. And the Dothraki ways are "if someone gifts you something, then one day you'll gift them something in return". While Dany is Viserys's gift to Drogo, Illyrio gives her 3 dragon eggs. This implies that Dany is beholden to do something for him some time in the future. After learning enough of the value of those eggs, and after adapting to the Dothraki ways, Dany comes to the intuitive realisation that Illyrio didn't give her those eggs to sell. She also comprehends at the start of aSoS that she owes Illyrio something, when Jorah tries to persuade her to buy the Unsullied with the merchandize and ships of Illyrio.

Daenerys Targaryen is married to a khal but that doesn't mean Illyrio or anybody expects her to become a Dothraki or follow her ways. Even if they did he can only expect her to make a gift to him, in return, not this Aegon chap. And such a gift would not include returning one of the gifts Illyrio gave to Dany or presuming that he could demand of her to hand one of those gifts to somebody else. That would be presumptuous in the extreme.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Illyrio knows enough of the Dothraki to use the eggs in this way.

He would be a complete fool if he tried something like that. No rational or sane person would behave in such a manner. Certainly not a man like Illyrio who actually knows how to manipulate people.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

At the time she doesn't know Aegon :rolleyes:

Again, why should she care to get to know him? She is Drogo's wife now, and she and her children are the heirs of Viserys III, not this boy.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The Red Wedding. Plenty of symbolic foreshadowing for it as well as imagery as well as hints of plans by those who planned it

Back in AGoT and ACoK? Nope. ACoK has one vision about it, and there are hints that Roose is not to be trusted and Walder a potential danger but the Red Wedding is nowhere to be seen in AGoT and ACoK in the actions of those people because the ground for it is only laid in ASoS.

I asked for you to provide something like this 'golden goose' story of yours for an event that already took place being foreshadowed in this way in an earlier book. If you can give me this for any of those characters - Lysa, Tywin, Jeor, Oberyn, Catelyn, Robert, Ned, Viserys, Joffrey, etc - then I will buy the idea that we can, perhaps, make detailed predictions on plot developments and the manner of death of secondary and tertiary characters the way you make for Illyrio.

But while I don't see any evidence for that I don't think I have to take such ideas all that seriously.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It still takes time for that vast net of informers and contacts to pass the info to Illyrio. There's no telephone, not even ravens in Essos. It all has to be done by ship or overland by caravan and horse. And well ships are a whole mess by the end of aDwD. Ironborn empounding every ship they can in Slaver's Bay. Volantis blocking ships to go east. Ironborn at Westeros. Pirates at the Stepstones. That sort of hampers trade and news getting to Pentos by ship, other than the random ship that managed to survive it all if coming from the south.

News travel still. Varys and Illyrio learned about Dany's whereabouts in ACoK, long before the news reached Westeros.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Overland? Vaes Dothrak to Pentos takes several months, especially with a caravan.

So what? Those caravans are still moving back and forth. And if any such meet Daenerys Targaryen in Khal Jhaqo's khalasar or at Vaes Dothrak they will spread the tale. The idea that Dany can win the allegiance of all the Dothraki in just a fortnight is ridiculous, as is the idea that she would target Pentos of all places at first. Qohor and Norvos are on the way first, and she, personally, has no reason to turn against Pentos and Illyrio yet. 

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

They will flee if hundreds of bodies have been flung across the wall into the city. Yes, there was Pale Mare for a while, with everyone attempting to try and keep it out of the city. There have been people infected inside nevertheless, but people have tried to keep it isolated and burned the bodies. But the last act by the Yunkai is of another degree. Most believe their queen is dead. Even Selmy begins to believe she died. But hey, if you think George had those bodies thrown across the walls of Mereen without any plot purpose, without giving the peope of Mereen the most primary reason to abandon Mereen and treat it is as salted ground, then I have a very nice Valyrian villa for sale.

So what? Even if you were right, they would only need to abandon Meereen, not leave Slaver's Bay. But then, you can shut down those pyramids. Who cares if the common rabble dies? Not to mention that they could also continue to camp outside the city as they are right now doing.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I know what you meant. Still, don't see how Illyrio is going to accomplish that on time, given the issues that you do not want to recognize.

As I've said, he could pass word to Belwas who could then try to murder Daenerys and her inner circle - Tyrion, Selmy, etc. Or they send a Faceless Man after her. If the Iron Bank doesn't do that first, to ensure Stannis' victory.

Large armies move slowly. The idea that Dany could beat the news about her coming is ridiculous.

And we actually don't know whether Varys and Illyrio have glass candles or whether there are other means to communicating quickly around Essos. There are no ravens there, true, but there might be other means. Other messages sent by birds, etc. Illyrio had the time and the means to bribe a triarch after he learned Daenerys had landed in Slaver's Bay and would most likely march or sail to Volantis with a considerable army. How did he he accomplish that if he doesn't have means to communicate quickly. He ever had the means to inform Jon Connington about that.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

But they didn't. Also they knew exactly where she was going, the moment she married Drogo (he'd go to Vaes Dothrak). Now she's reported dead, has means of untrackable transport (Drogon), and they are reliant on word reaching them of her whereabouts before they can send word or someone back to assassinate her, while there's a whole blockade in the southern seas.

There is no blockade. You are confusing things. You couldn't book a passage to Slaver's Bay in Volantis while Quentyn and Jorah were trying. But Illyrio and Victarion own ships. They can go wherever the hell they want. And nobody is stopping ships from Slaver's Bay to sail west. They will do so and news about Daenerys will travel with them.

Dany might actually be forced to fight a war against the Three Daughters. She might be able to take Volantis quickly and easily enough, but Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr will most likely fight. They have no slave soldiers and fewer slaves that Volantis. They are working with free companies and sellsails.

Pentos is not as important to Daenerys as the ending of slavery. And for that the slaver cities have to go. All of them.

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He had a real role to play - he saved Dany's life. It's a miracl ehe survived it at all.

And what is his purpose now? Any other character could have eaten those locusts. And they could have all died. Yet Belwas survived. He might have yet a role to play. A real role, not the role of some extra.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I do now, yes. Although I do think it was more because of seeing his plans and work of years go up in smoke.

In fact, it is quite likely that Illyrio learned about Viserys and Drogo's death in the same letter/news. The Pentoshi caravan just arrived when the wineseller made his attempt, and then they quickly left. The news about Drogo's demise might have traveled back to Vaes Dothrak before the caravan began its journey back to Pentos.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Yes and no. Yes, he mocks Viserys. Yes, Viserys is a pawn. Yes, he will eventually discard him. But no, he's not a callous man like Littlefinger. The mistake imo that we (and I include myself with that for a long while) make is to regard ulterior motives solely as an either/or proposition, black and white, rather than consider that it's possible that it's far more grey. Because Illyrio is planning to get Aegon recognized as Rhaegar's son and in King's Landing in power, we automatically assume that he means to do so in a parasitic way, but I now consider this to have been far more a symbiotic plan. Both a parasite as a symbiot take something from someone else. Except a parasite never gives something back, a symbiot does, and a symbiot is not out to do harm. If however, the partner in the symbiotic cooperative drops dead, the symbiot will look for a new partner or new host to do the same thing for him as the previous one. Considering the information we're given years later in aDwD about Illyrio wishing no ill on Viserys I think we are looking at someone aiming for a symbiotic relationship.

I don't compare Illyrio to Littlefinger and see little reason in doing so. They have pretty much nothing in common. I also see no reason to talk about parasites and symbionts. We still don't know what the ultimate plan was but it is clear that Viserys III had to go for Aegon to be king. And Aegon is supposed to be king.

If Viserys III was supposed to meet and interact with Aegon it is strange that he never did. There were more than enough chances. Viserys III lived in Illyrio's manse for months.

And, again, we have no reason to believe Aegon and Connington were supposed to join Viserys or the Dothraki. Could be. But perhaps not.

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29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They only discussed the Golden Company. Back in 'The Lost Lord'. Viserys never comes up then.

Wrong:

Lemore: "Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."
Joncon: "No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass." Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. "I have danced to the fat man's pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? The prince is a man grown. His time is—" (aDwD, The Lost Lord)
 
There you go. You only did a search on Viserys, not Beggar King to check.
 
34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I know. Why are you telling me this?

I'm not making a bullet list of 21 facts to discuss each one separately or to "inform" you, but to make a total sum of pieces. You're ignoring the full picture.

 

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio and Varys are at heart of the Aegon story, and that's not going to go away soon.

Aegon is becoming the heart of his own story.

 

38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is a liar. And Tyrion was sentenced to death at the end of the trial-by-combat. This matter was settled. The Seven declared him guilty and Tywin delivered the sentence. If Tywin had wanted him to go to the Wall he would offered him that choice after the trial.

Are you so sure he was lying about it? He mentions needing Mace's agreement, and Tywin wouldn't have accepted Garth on the small council for no tit-for-that. Tywin wanted to send him to the Wall, for Tyrion pleading uitly at the trial. But then Tyrion demanded trial by combat, basically wanting to get out of the deal, and loses again. After that, if Tywin still wanted to send Tyrion to the Wall, wouldn't he want to wait until Tyrion's actually at the chopping block and gets the choice - Ilyn's sword or the Black- rather than offer him a choice again right after the trial?

We'll never know for sure whether Tywin was lying or not, unless Mace reveals something, because he never got a chance to prove whether he meant it or not, right?

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We also hear Illyrio talk about Varys having killed people in the past.

I only said we have no evidence of Illyrio killing anyone or trying to kill someone. I didn't say anything about Varys, who we actually witness murder Kevan.

 

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin had no reason to make a deal with Mace over that. You are conflating things

I'm not conflating anything. I'm mentioning Tywin's remark -

 
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"Will you punish me if I refuse, Father?"
"This escape is folly. You are not to be killed, if that is what you fear. It's still my intent to send you to the Wall, but I could not do it without Lord Tyrell's consent. Put down the crossbow and we will go back to my chambers and talk of it."

 

 
This is not about judging during trials or not. Tywin's referring to a deal, between himself and Mace, which is not abnormal since they claim the poison was in the cup from which Marg was expected to drink as well. If Tywin intended to make a public offer for the Black to Tyrion at the chopping block, then he better have Mace backing him too, especially because Cersei will try to make a scene over it.
 
And then it turns out that there was an agreement about Garth, who's already on his way to Oldtown. Again something that Cersei knew nothing of.
52 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

For one, Varys has a ship ready to deliver Tyrion to Pentos.

Varys has a ship in the Bay ready to go to Pentos. It's not clear it was there to save Tyrion. It might have been there for other reasons, and he just put Tyrion along on it.

Jaime holds a dagger to Varys's throat, who was still walking around in lavender. His disguise lacks the fake stubble beard. It's something hastily done. Varys lies to Jaime on how many turnkeys he drugged to sleep. He tells Jaime he made 3 turnkeys sleep. But in fact only 2 slept, because the 3rd is Rugen. If Varys intended to rescue Tyrion all along and had every intenton to make his getaway, then why even lie about the number of turnkeys? Unless Varys still hoped to maintain his small council position and still wanted to preserve the Rugen identity. 

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Connington gives the impression that he is going to decide what to do with Tyrion but it might be that he has gotten precise orders by Illyrio. If so, there is no reason why he should give Tyrion any hint in that direction. And I never said Illyrio and Varys would have told Connington everything. They don't. That's a pattern.

Well, for one the ulterior motives you assume, woudl require JonCon's cooperation. And thus if they have them, then JonCon would know something. And though we haven't read the letter, JonCon isn't a good liar, and his words make clear that he's unaware of ulterior plots, and his later private thoughts don't mention "I should have done what Illyrio wrote me to do with him." 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio could also have hoped that Dany would eat those eggs. Or crush them to make some sort aphrodisiac.

Don't be absurd

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He would be a complete fool if he tried something like that. No rational or sane person would behave in such a manner. Certainly not a man like Illyrio who actually knows how to manipulate people.

That's your opinion and we disagree.

He failed to manipulate Viserys. So, I wouldn't boast on his manipulating abilities.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, why should she care to get to know him? She is Drogo's wife now, and she and her children are the heirs of Viserys III, not this boy.

And if her alleged nephew were to have shown up in 298 AC you don't think she would have cared at all? I'd say she wouldn't care now, in 300 AC (exactly for the reasons that Tyrion cites), but in 298? You reason that Dany would marry him if he had shown up in 300 AC, but you find it absurd for her to care about getting to know family in 298?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Daenerys Targaryen is married to a khal but that doesn't mean Illyrio or anybody expects her to become a Dothraki or follow her ways. Even if they did he can only expect her to make a gift to him, in return, not this Aegon chap.

Of course he can expect her to adapt to Dothraki culture. She's a khaleesi, and Jorah's partly there to instruct her on their ways.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Back in AGoT and ACoK? Nope. ACoK has one vision about it, and there are hints that Roose is not to be trusted and Walder a potential danger but the Red Wedding is nowhere to be seen in AGoT and ACoK in the actions of those people because the ground for it is only laid in ASoS.

Actually there are hints for it in Bran's chapter when Tyrion visits WF after the Wall and Robb is in the seat, sitting like the statues in the crypts, getting up and making space for Bran and then Rickon letting the wolves in, but remaining at the door. Not to mention Osha's warnings about Robb going the wrong way.

For Robert? The Hand's tourney - joust between Gregor and the Hound, and let's not forget the plenty of mentions about murder plots, including one against Robert.

Ned - certainly the Hand's tourney. The beheading of Gregor's horse is a template for his own beheading scene, with Sansa screaming, while LF and Renly bet on the wrong horse, just as Ned bets on his favorite 'wrong' horse to go to the brothel, falls and crashes his leg, just as Gregor bets to win the joust on his favorite stallion, which is horney after the dancing "grey" mare with "blue forget me nots". It's a callback to Lyanna or Robert, and Ned hoping to gain control over Robert, but failing, and falling, etc.

Haven't gone into depth foreshadowing analysis for the others.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is completely irrelevant. A lot of people don't get what they want. They can continue to try. And Aegon will be king, never mind all the changed plans.

It's not irrelevant. Not when George has 2 people, including a POV repeat the same point twice in one and the same chapter.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But while I don't see any evidence for that I don't think I have to take such ideas all that seriously.

I don't care if you don't take it seriously. I do. Take it or leave it.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

News travel still. Varys and Illyrio learned about Dany's whereabouts in ACoK, long before the news reached Westeros.

And Dany flies and her fleet will sail faster.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? Those caravans are still moving back and forth.

Slower than she or the Dothraki will move, than the IB will move, etc.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? Even if you were right, they would only need to abandon Meereen, not leave Slaver's Bay. But then, you can shut down those pyramids. Who cares if the common rabble dies? Not to mention that they could also continue to camp outside the city as they are right now doing.

The common rabble are Dany's people, more than the nobility in the pyramids. Selmy and Dany would care.

Outside? Where the water is tainted and everythign has turned to dust, also rampage with the Pale Mare. It's nuts to try and stay there, inside and outside the walls.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

As I've said, he could pass word to Belwas who could then try to murder Daenerys and her inner circle - Tyrion, Selmy, etc. Or they send a Faceless Man after her. If the Iron Bank doesn't do that first, to ensure Stannis' victory.

You're just grasping here. Belwas isn't gong to assassinate anyone. :rolleyes:

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Large armies move slowly. The idea that Dany could beat the news about her coming is ridiculous.

Not by ship.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no blockade. You are confusing things. You couldn't book a passage to Slaver's Bay in Volantis while Quentyn and Jorah were trying. But Illyrio and Victarion own ships. They can go wherever the hell they want. And nobody is stopping ships from Slaver's Bay to sail west. They will do so and news about Daenerys will travel with them.

No, I'm not confusing things. There was a blockade by Volantis, by Yunkai. Nothing could or would be allowed to go east, and those that did were taken by the Ironborn. And any ship arriving near east, will no doubt also end up being empounded. In order to sail west from Slaver's Bay, you need to get east first. The blockage was halted for a short window period, enough for any of Illyrio's potential ships to get word to Illyrio that Dany's reported to be dead. But that window has closed again, both by Volantis sailing for Mereen and the Ironborn already there. 

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9 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Wrong:

Lemore: "Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."
Joncon: "No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass." Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. "I have danced to the fat man's pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? The prince is a man grown. His time is—" (aDwD, The Lost Lord)
 
There you go. You only did a search on Viserys, not Beggar King to check.

You are right there. But this is not a discussion of Viserys, just him being mentioned. And nothing there indicates Viserys and Drogo were supposed to work together with Aegon and Connington. That is the thing we are talking about. There is no evidence for that.

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Aegon is becoming the heart of his own story.

Aegon is a pawn. A shining pawn, but still a pawn.

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Are you so sure he was lying about it? He mentions needing Mace's agreement, and Tywin wouldn't have accepted Garth on the small council for no tit-for-that. Tywin wanted to send him to the Wall, for Tyrion pleading uitly at the trial. But then Tyrion demanded trial by combat, basically wanting to get out of the deal, and loses again. After that, if Tywin still wanted to send Tyrion to the Wall, wouldn't he want to wait until Tyrion's actually at the chopping block and gets the choice - Ilyn's sword or the Black- rather than offer him a choice again right after the trial?

First - do we know Tywin actually agreed to the Garth thing? Or did Mace just pretend he did so that Cersei would accept Garth as the new Master of Coin? That's what I would do. Lord Tywin is rotting and can't call Mace a liar, or can he?

Even if Tywin agreed to Garth becoming the new Master of Coin there is no hint that this had anything to do with Tyrion's execution. They might have talked about that immediately after Tyrion's arrest, before the trial even begun. Just as the new King Tommen was crowned before that.

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We'll never know for sure whether Tywin was lying or not, unless Mace reveals something, because he never got a chance to prove whether he meant it or not, right?

Tywin was fucking Tyrion's whore mistress in the very night before Tyrion's planned execution. He is done with the dwarf. No normal person having fatherly affections for a son would ever do something as twisted as this. And we know from George that Varys actually played an as of yet not revealed role in the events leading up the murders of Shae and Tywin. George said so, himself. I recall how to find that interview if you don't know it. It is an online interview discussing the show episode of Tywin's murder.

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I only said we have no evidence of Illyrio killing anyone or trying to kill someone. I didn't say anything about Varys, who we actually witness murder Kevan.

It wouldn't have been Varys who arranged the attempts on Daenerys, Viserys, and Drogo via the wineseller. Illyrio was in Pentos. Varys in KL.

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I'm not conflating anything. I'm mentioning Tywin's remark -

Tywin is grasping for straws there. And he doesn't say that he did send Tyrion to the Wall. Just that it is still his intention. He obviously didn't Mace's support on that, no? Else he would have said so. And why should Mace care so much whether Tyrion lives or dies? The important thing is that he is found guilty. He pushed for that, and then Tyrion himself ensured he would via the trial-by-combat. Cersei also pushed the judges to sentence Tyrion to death (at least that's what Oberyn says).

Tywin is the Hand of the King. He speaks with the King's Voice. If he wants to send his son to the Wall he can do so. He does not have to make a deal. And if Mace wants to make a fuzz over this Tywin can show him what it means to anger the Lion of the Rock. Do you think Tywin would have cared about Mace's opinion if they were sitting in judgment over Jaime?

Cersei has already been effectively neutralized by Tywin. He owns her and controls her and nothing she did during the trial was done without his consent or knowledge. If Shae's appearance had surprised or irritated Tywin, if he had cared that her talk is shaming and dishonoring House Lannister through the fact that Tyrion was a Lannister he would have severely chastised Cersei thereafter. Yet he did nothing of this sort.

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Well, for one the ulterior motives you assume, woudl require JonCon's cooperation. And thus if they have them, then JonCon would know something. And though we haven't read the letter, JonCon isn't a good liar, and his words make clear that he's unaware of ulterior plots, and his later private thoughts don't mention "I should have done what Illyrio wrote me to do with him." 
 

Well, we don't know what Jon Connington knows. Nor do we know what Varys and Illyrio told him about anything. They give him leeway to make certain decisions because they know he is their pawn. He acts in their best interest.

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Don't be absurd.

I find it absurd that Illyrio would want to give Aegon a dragon egg through Dany. That's just silly.

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He failed to manipulate Viserys. So, I wouldn't boast on his manipulating abilities.

Did he? Or did he just not care whether Viserys would go to Vaes Dothrak or not? Note that Viserys only met the end that he did because Dany grew stronger and he weaker. That is his problem, not Drogo. It is his jealousy of Daenerys realizing she has now a life and future of her own and he is no longer at the center of her universe. 

But Illyrio could not foresee that Dany would adopt so well to Dothraki culture. Drogo nearly raped her to death in the first weeks. Only when the dreams and dragon eggs helped her to adjust did she get the strength to accept her fate and new role in life. That was nothing anybody could foresee back in Pentos.

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And if her alleged nephew were to have shown up in 298 AC you don't think she would have cared at all? I'd say she wouldn't care now, in 300 AC (exactly for the reasons that Tyrion cites), but in 298? You reason that Dany would marry him if he had shown up in 300 AC, but you find it absurd for her to care about getting to know family in 298?

You are not making sense there. She only got the dragon eggs when she married Drogo. Aegon did not show up at her wedding or before she left. Had she come back with Drogo and Viserys she wouldn't have given a shit about this Aegon person. She would have had a son, her heir and Viserys' until Viserys had a son of his own, and neither of them would have had any use for this Aegon person.

She may have cared about Aegon before the Drogo marriage. But not thereafter while being with Drogo. At Meereen she might have cared, too.

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Of course he can expect her to adapt to Dothraki culture. She's a khaleesi, and Jorah's partly there to instruct her on their ways.

A khaleesi is nothing. Telling somebody something about a new culture doesn't mean you make it your own. Dany did this on her own, and the girl she was in Pentos wasn't likely to do this to degree she did. Assuming people then expected her to do this the way she did doesn't make much sense.

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Actually there are hints for it in Bran's chapter when Tyrion visits WF after the Wall and Robb is in the seat, sitting like the statues in the crypts, getting up and making space for Bran and then Rickon letting the wolves in, but remaining at the door. Not to mention Osha's warnings about Robb going the wrong way.

This doesn't foreshadow the Red Wedding. It may foreshadow Robb's death or failure in the South but those aren't the same things.

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For Robert? The Hand's tourney - joust between Gregor and the Hound, and let's not forget the plenty of mentions about murder plots, including one against Robert.

Robert's death is very likely from the start of the books. I was not talking about general things. Where is the foreshadowing that Robert will be killed by a boar?

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Ned - certainly the Hand's tourney. The beheading of Gregor's horse is a template for his own beheading scene, with Sansa screaming, while LF and Renly bet on the wrong horse, just as Ned bets on his favorite 'wrong' horse to go to the brothel, falls and crashes his leg, just as Gregor bets to win the joust on his favorite stallion, which is horney after the dancing "grey" mare with "blue forget me nots". It's a callback to Lyanna or Robert, and Ned hoping to gain control over Robert, but failing, and falling, etc.

Ned's death is also very likely from the get go, with there being many hints of doom and death, especially in relation to Ser Ilyn. But there is no foreshadowing from the beginning that Littlefinger will betray Ned or that Joffrey will sentence him to death. Where is concrete foreshadowing for that?

That is what you claim to have for Illyrio on the basis of putting meaning into text passages that seem to have nothing to do with the actual hints we get. 

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It's not irrelevant. Not when George has 2 people, including a POV repeat the same point twice in one and the same chapter.

So what? That just doesn't mean anything. Many characters in those books make plans that go wrong but they still don't have to fail in everything. They can still have success.

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And Dany flies and her fleet will sail faster.

Dany on a dragon in Pentos won't kill Illyrio if she isn't there with a khalasar. And the Dothraki don't have dragons.

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Slower than she or the Dothraki will move, than the IB will move, etc.

That is just a claim you can't prove. You don't even know that Dany won't return to Slaver's Bay or won't go to Qarth first. Xaro and the Pureborn and the warlocks have to pay for their treason, too. Dany won't forget them. She is going back now, first to Vaes Dothrak, then to Qarth, then to Slaver's Bay, and then on to Volantis. 

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The common rabble are Dany's people, more than the nobility in the pyramids. Selmy and Dany would care.

Selmy won't leave his queen's city. He wants to keep it for her. And if Meereen is no longer habitable they could just move to Yunkai. There is no Pale Mare there.

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Outside? Where the water is tainted and everythign has turned to dust, also rampage with the Pale Mare. It's nuts to try and stay there, inside and outside the walls.

Again, even if they have to leave, why should they want to go to Volantis without Daenerys?

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You're just grasping here. Belwas isn't gong to assassinate anyone. :rolleyes:

I'm not.

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Not by ship.

Ships sail all the time. Dany won't get all her fleet to Westeros. Then there won't be a Second Dance there. She could just sail in and take KL which is a harbor city. Euron is going to crush her armada long before she reaches Westeros.

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No, I'm not confusing things. There was a blockade by Volantis, by Yunkai. Nothing could or would be allowed to go east, and those that did were taken by the Ironborn. And any ship arriving near east, will no doubt also end up being empounded. In order to sail west from Slaver's Bay, you need to get east first. The blockage was halted for a short window period, enough for any of Illyrio's potential ships to get word to Illyrio that Dany's reported to be dead. But that window has closed again, both by Volantis sailing for Mereen and the Ironborn already there. 

Illyrio won't get news on Daenerys from Slaver's Bay. He will reach word about her whereabouts from Vaes Dothrak or the Dothraki Sea. News travel through the Dothraki Sea. Jon Connington also has news about the movements of various khalasars while he is on the Rhoyne. News do travel. It is not going to be a huge plot element in that story that they suddenly don't.

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Varys has a ship in the Bay ready to go to Pentos. It's not clear it was there to save Tyrion. It might have been there for other reasons, and he just put Tyrion along on it.

That might be the case but if he had no interest in using Tyrion for his own ends why not just cut his throat and get rid of the body? Jaime is never going to know the truth?

And again - if Varys had wanted he could have sold Jaime to Tywin or Cersei. He could have revealed his plan to free Tyrion to them, causing even more trouble in the heart of House Lannister. Neither Tywin nor Cersei would have been happy with that.

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Jaime holds a dagger to Varys's throat, who was still walking around in lavender.

So what? Do you think Varys is as careless as walking whistling into a chamber that isn't even his chamber but just a front? Do you think Varys actually plays the role of the soft eunuch while there is nobody around? He was playing it for Jaime. If he had truly expecting to be alone Varys would have behaved as he does when he is alone. And then he isn't playing a role.

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His disguise lacks the fake stubble beard. It's something hastily done.

What are you talking about? Varys isn't disguised as Rugen when he frees Tyrion from his cell. He is a begging brother.

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Varys lies to Jaime on how many turnkeys he drugged to sleep. He tells Jaime he made 3 turnkeys sleep. But in fact only 2 slept, because the 3rd is Rugen. If Varys intended to rescue Tyrion all along and had every intenton to make his getaway, then why even lie about the number of turnkeys? Unless Varys still hoped to maintain his small council position and still wanted to preserve the Rugen identity. 

What are you talking about? Jaime tells Tyrion that Varys has put four turnkeys to sleep:

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The corridor was so poorly lit that Tyrion almost stumbled on the turnkey, sprawled across the cold stone floor. He prodded him with a toe. “Is he dead?”
“Asleep. The other three as well. The eunuch dosed their wine with sweetsleep, but not enough to kill them. Or so he swears. He is waiting back at the stair, dressed up in a septon’s robe.

I don't know what it means that Cersei only has two and not four turnkeys killed in AFfC. Possibly a mistake in the books. Or the two others woke up early and saved their lives this way.

Jaime knows that Rugen is Varys. He does not conclude this later on because Rugen is gone, he knows that this is the case. How he knows we don't know. Perhaps because Varys told Jaime he would put the turnkeys to sleep in his identity as Rugen. Or Jaime knew that Rugen was Varys since the days of Aerys II.

In addition, you should be well aware that Rugen wasn't a turnkey. He was an undergoaler. If you don't know the difference go and ask the chief undergoaloer Rennifer Longwaters about the details.

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23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

First - do we know Tywin actually agreed to the Garth thing? Or did Mace just pretend he did so that Cersei would accept Garth as the new Master of Coin? That's what I would do. Lord Tywin is rotting and can't call Mace a liar, or can he?

Mace Tyrell is very surprised and speechless and fumbling for words when Cersei lies about having appointed Rosby instead. His reactionis genuine. You aren't Mace, and Mace isn't you. On top of that, Mace relays the news about Garth's coming as if he believes Cersei is aware of this appointment - "Good news, Garth is on his way to Oldtown."

If we follow your reasoning on most textual evidence in the books, we should throw out at least half of the pieces of infromation we're given in the text because of the assumption that they're a lie. Tristan Flowers - according to you lied to about the GC's job. Jon Connington - lied to (aside from Aegon) about Illyrio's plans for Viserys. Tywin - all lies. Mace Tyrell - now he's lying too. Ain't that convenient to say about characters who had off-page dealings with the people that might shed a light on everything. Just throw out half the text, because "hey, x might be lying," AND "because it disagrees with my assumptions on Y" and just make up your own fanfic.

When a character lies about a certain piece of information, George tends to give us actual hints of it being a lie, by either having the character unwittingly coy with the truth there and then or in another scene. LF lies about Tyrion betting against Jaime, but in the Tourney of the Hand we have a Renly-LF bet in front of Ned and Tyrion arguing to Cat about him never betting against Jaime which reveals that LF's claim cannot be true. Twice we and Cat are warned that Sweetrobin was to be fostered with Stannis, not Tywin. We have hints about Aegon being a lie (as in actually Illyrio's son rather than Rhaegar's) before we meet him, and we get those hints from Illyrio himself. George gives us verifiable clues to the lies, via other witnesses. He does not put in lies without evidence for them being lies. So, when someone claims or says something, especially when it's consistent with prior claims of other people, without any actual evidence that this tidbit is a lie, then George is giving a truthful piece of the puzzles. Lies work with a good deal of truth: this is a true tactic for actual known liars (and our Queen of Thorns often makes clear that she keeps Mace out of the loop of her conspiring) as well as George's own writing.

Tywin's words to Tyrion could be a lie, but dropping Mace's name should at least make us pause, especially when in the next book in the POV of Cersei, it seems that Tywin and Mace had another agreement. Tywin kept Cersei out of the loop of a lot of things. While she gloats in aSoS at learning that Tyrion is to wed Sansa, she's sprung with the news that she is to wed as well. It is later also shown when she talks with Kevan and learns that Tywin meant to send her to the Rock regardless. Hell, she was in complete denial over Shae. 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But this is not a discussion of Viserys, just him being mentioned. And nothing there indicates Viserys and Drogo were supposed to work together with Aegon and Connington. That is the thing we are talking about. There is no evidence for that.

It is a discussion of all of Illyrio's expectations being wrong. Which we did discuss, which you deny is a plot point about Illyrio, which you wave off as not important making generalizations about everybody being disappointed in life about something once.

No, nobody says "Oh, I was supposed to meet the Golden Company, Drogo and Viserys with Aegon two years ago." It's inferred. Instead one character has a discussion on a certain topic (Illyrio's expectations and plans that at some point in time included Viserys, until he died before his time), and then another character of the Golden Company refers to the same plan. And both display equal impatience and being fed up with Illyrio's plans. Cry high and low that's not George's MO, but well just look at the theories about "the catspaw that was to kill Bran", and "was it the lemon pie, the pigeon or cup". So, YES that chapter indicates Viserys and Drogo were supposed to work together with the Golden Company as well as JonCon (and thus Aegon). You are free to disregard the indication for it, by all means. But you claiming that there isn't an indication for it is wrong, certainly when you have to resort to "well it's lies". 

I will agree that it is not a full blown confirmation of it. But it not being a full blown confirmation is not the same thing as there being no indication for it.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin was fucking Tyrion's whore mistress in the very night before Tyrion's planned execution. He is done with the dwarf. No normal person having fatherly affections for a son would ever do something as twisted as this. And we know from George that Varys actually played an as of yet not revealed role in the events leading up the murders of Shae and Tywin. George said so, himself. I recall how to find that interview if you don't know it. It is an online interview discussing the show episode of Tywin's murder.

Again, give me the quote. Search for it and provide the link. A not-yet-revealed role can mean lots of things, including the possibility that Varys led Tyrion to Tywin's room not to kill him, but have Tywin convince Tyrion to take the black the next day. Even in such circumstances, Tyrion would have been put on a ship, that Varys never planned to sail for Eastwatch but Essos.

I'm not saying Tywin has "fatherly affections". I don't think Roose has "fatherly affections" for Ramsay either, but he is not keen on murdering Ramsay, not keen to taint himself with "kinslaying". The same sentiment has stayed Tywin's hand since Tyrion's birth. Tywin tries to make such a deal with Tyrion before. And thus there is longtime precedent that Tywin wishes to avoid killing Tyrion, even if he abhors him.

Yes, Tywin fucking his son's whore is twisted. And making his once teen son rape his own wife believing her to be a whore and witnessing a whole garrison rape her is even worse. I would never propose Tywin as "father of the year". But that confrontational chapter between Tywin and Tyrion is more one of truths than lies. A summary of truths in that chapter -

  1. the truth that Tywin beds whores himself
  2. the truth that Tywin beds the whore he forbade his son to take to KL
  3. the truth that Tywin truly is convinced that Tysha was a whore
  4. the truth that Tywin doesn't shit gold
  5. the truth that Tywin never beleived Tyrion would shoot him

Now also remark that Tywin says, "You're no son of mine" just after Tyrion shot an arrow in his gut. In relation to Tywin trying to avoid kinslaying, even if he hates Tyrion, for such a long time, Tywin's remark can be taken in the "kinslaying" light. If even the black hearted hypocrite Tywin avoided kinslaying his son, then Tyrion shows himself to be of a different nature by performing "kinslaying".... Then it becomes "You're no son of mine when you can slay your father, when I would never have actually slain you." And it may be an unwitting truth on top of it, IF Tyrion is confirmed to be Aerys's son instead.

With all the truth lying about our ears in that chapter, then I think considering Tywin spoke truthfully about still wanting Tyrion to take the black the next day, instead of chopping his head off, is warranted.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It wouldn't have been Varys who arranged the attempts on Daenerys, Viserys, and Drogo via the wineseller. Illyrio was in Pentos. Varys in KL.

And as I already said, and which you acknoweldged to "know", Illyrio's arrangement was not even meant to succeed by Illyrio. It's like Illyrio for a moment making Tyrion believe that the mushrooms he's being offered are poisoned, except they're not. "Trust a little".

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is grasping for straws there. And he doesn't say that he did send Tyrion to the Wall.

Tywin's not grasping for straws. Men grasping for straws don't talk flippant, dismissive and unconcerned.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And he doesn't say that he did send Tyrion to the Wall.

Of course Tyrion WASN'T sent to the Wall. That's obvious.

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Just that it is still his intention.

That's what I said!

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He obviously didn't Mace's support on that, no? Else he would have said so.

Well he SAYS SO!!!! He says he needed Mace's consent. I'll put it in red, bold and supersize so you can read it. 

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"This escape is folly. You are not to be killed, if that is what you fear. It's still my intent to send you to the Wall, but I could not do it without Lord Tyrell's consent. Put down the crossbow and we will go back to my chambers and talk of it."

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And why should Mace care so much whether Tyrion lives or dies?

Because they judged Tyrion guilty of poisoning the cup, and thus is pictured to the court and realm as not just wanting to kill Joffrey but Mace's daughter too. Of course Mace would care whether his daughter's would-be-murderer lives or dies.

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is the Hand of the King. He speaks with the King's Voice. If he wants to send his son to the Wall he can do so. He does not have to make a deal.

He does have to make a deal if he does not wish to risk an outrage fom the Tyrells about letting the would-be-murderer of Margaery live - Hand or no Hand. Tywin wants peace in the realm and stability at court, and Tywin does need the Tyrells for that. Heck, even Kevan makes clear to Cersei how much Tywin beleived this, warning her against offending them or worse.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Mace wants to make a fuzz over this Tywin can show him what it means to anger the Lion of the Rock.

:lmao:  

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do you think Tywin would have cared about Mace's opinion if they were sitting in judgment over Jaime?

It all depends on what Jaime did, and whether Mace can push personal grievances, yes.

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei has already been effectively neutralized by Tywin. He owns her and controls her and nothing she did during the trial was done without his consent or knowledge. If Shae's appearance had surprised or irritated Tywin, if he had cared that her talk is shaming and dishonoring House Lannister through the fact that Tyrion was a Lannister he would have severely chastised Cersei thereafter. Yet he did nothing of this sort.

What has that go to do with it?

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I find it absurd that Illyrio would want to give Aegon a dragon egg through Dany. That's just silly.

Less silly than the purposefulness absurdness you proposed abotu eating them.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Or did he just not care whether Viserys would go to Vaes Dothrak or not?

He tries to convince Viserys to stay in Pentos. Jorah confirms and reminds us that Illyrio tried to several chapters later. Yes, he cared whether Viserys went to Vaes Dothrak or not. He didn't want him to go.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Note that Viserys only met the end that he did because Dany grew stronger and he weaker. That is his problem, not Drogo. It is his jealousy of Daenerys realizing she has now a life and future of her own and he is no longer at the center of her universe.

Don't see what that has gotten anything to do with these non-existent but fabulous abilities to manipulate people that you tout for Illyrio.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are not making sense there. She only got the dragon eggs when she married Drogo. Aegon did not show up at her wedding or before she left. Had she come back with Drogo and Viserys she wouldn't have given a shit about this Aegon person. She would have had a son, her heir and Viserys' until Viserys had a son of his own, and neither of them would have had any use for this Aegon person.

I'm not saying anything about Aegon showing up at her wedding or before she left.

I disagree that she wouldn't have given a shit about Aegon's the son of Rhaegar (as far as she knows) and she's a fan of Rhaegar, thinking of him a lot in aGoT while WITH Drogo. She thinks of Rhaegar's son when she's near due too. And she thinks of Aegon the Conquerer as many times as she thinks of Rhaegar. In her development in the timer period of aGoT or aCoK she would have been overjoyed to learn that Rhaegar's son had survived after all. Especially after Viserys's, she'd have family again. Heck, she saw a vision of Rhaegar with Aegon and pronoucing him the PtwP. And she wasn't as suspicous of people back then either.

It's in Mereen that she becomes markedly distrustful of people, wondering this or that person is gonna betray her, because then she learns that the knight who argued to distrust this or that person had been Varys's spy all along.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This doesn't foreshadow the Red Wedding. It may foreshadow Robb's death or failure in the South but those aren't the same things.

splitting hairs are you? You asked for references about foreshadowed death, wanted hints of it as far back as aGot, and something similar as the "golden goose concept". The first hints of Robb's death are in aGoT, though vague ones. George's editor confirmed that is how he foreshadows - vague, illustrative, the plan. The vague hints are dropped in unrelated setting/scene and usually metaphorical and symbolical (for Robb the scene in Bran's chapter with Tyrion's visit), then illustrative imagery of the death (a mute king with a wolf's head, Theon's dream), and then the how-plot.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert's death is very likely from the start of the books. I was not talking about general things. Where is the foreshadowing that Robert will be killed by a boar?

Well then why ask about Robert and Ned foreshadowing? There is no specific foreshadowing image that it will be a boar in Robert's case (haven't looked of rit), but that it would be hunting or forest related is hinted by the heavy Dionysus connections for Robert the negative connotations of drinking and his wenching) together with the sacrifical stag sigil. Those cursed by Dionysus (alcoholics) end up being torn to shreds in forests.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ned's death is also very likely from the get go, with there being many hints of doom and death, especially in relation to Ser Ilyn. But there is no foreshadowing from the beginning that Littlefinger will betray Ned or that Joffrey will sentence him to death. Where is concrete foreshadowing for that?

Now you're changing the goalposts. The hints that Ned will be beheaded are prominent. I made no claim who actually will butcher Illyrio

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? That just doesn't mean anything.

Actually it does. When George repeats something twiceor thrice this closely together it is meaningful. Repeating something is "stressing". Other ways are bringing in the color "red" (like a marker). George doesn't want us to forget it or just read across it. He does it,because he wants us to notice it. These are literary wirting tricks. 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany on a dragon in Pentos won't kill Illyrio if she isn't there with a khalasar. And the Dothraki don't have dragons.

That's not what I tried to claim. What it means is that Dany and her army can move faster than Illyrio can locate her.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is just a claim you can't prove. You don't even know that Dany won't return to Slaver's Bay or won't go to Qarth first. Xaro and the Pureborn and the warlocks have to pay for their treason, too. Dany won't forget them. She is going back now, first to Vaes Dothrak, then to Qarth, then to Slaver's Bay, and then on to Volantis. 

I do not have to prove that caravans move slower than dragons and ships. That's a fact, and well established in the series, starting with Robert's caravan returning to KL from WF taking months, while Cat who leaves later can reach KL well ahead of them by ship.

And first you say I don't know, but apparently you know exactly every city she will hit. Double standard? 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Selmy won't leave his queen's city. He wants to keep it for her. And if Meereen is no longer habitable they could just move to Yunkai. There is no Pale Mare there.

Again, even if they have to leave, why should they want to go to Volantis without Daenerys?

This is pure denial of the plot where George makes sure that even if Selmy wants to keep it for her, it's not worth keeping. To keep it is suicide. Does Selmy choose suicide to keep stones or life to save her people? Heart-wrenching choice for Selmy, because yes in a way he will feel he's abandoning Dany's wishes AND Dany herself. That Selmy is forced to go against Dany's prior wishes is already shown with the Pentos deal. Selmy knows what the Tattered Prince wants and relays it to Dany, who says "no" at the time. Instead Quinten makes the deal, but he dies. In order to save Dany's lover and bloodbrothers he ends up making the deal while she's absent. 

If Dany wanted to rule Yunkai she would have done so. She chose Mereen instead. Mereen will be death to all, and the Yunkai circus is at and end at the start of tWoW. But Volantis is the real threat. Going to Yunkai to be attacked there repeatedly by Volantis is pointless. Defeat Volantis and you control the Summer Sea and Slaver's Bay.

I think you proposed that Dany will first conquer Tyrosh, Lys and Myr... I expect them to be smarter than that. I expect some envoy dispatched by them ASAP after Volantis falls where they voluntarily denounce slavery to save their skin, especially because of Waters with his fleet that he stole from Cersei west of them. Without sellsword companies for hire anymore those three cities cannot hope to put up any resistance against those forces, especially if the slave trade in Slaver's Bay and Volantis is at an end as well.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio won't get news on Daenerys from Slaver's Bay. He will reach word about her whereabouts from Vaes Dothrak or the Dothraki Sea. News travel through the Dothraki Sea. Jon Connington also has news about the movements of various khalasars while he is on the Rhoyne. News do travel. It is not going to be a huge plot element in that story that they suddenly don't.

News from Vaes Dothrak takes months. By the time that Illyrio has news of Dany in Vaes Dothrak, she's gone. The various khalasars JonCon hears about on the Rhoyne are khalasars not in Vaes Dothrak, but moving nearby the area.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That might be the case but if he had no interest in using Tyrion for his own ends why not just cut his throat and get rid of the body? Jaime is never going to know the truth?

The principle of not wasting resources.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What are you talking about? Varys isn't disguised as Rugen when he frees Tyrion from his cell. He is a begging brother.

He was a begging brother once before, much better disguised then (props, gait, etc), because Tyrion then admitted that he wouldn't have recognized him as easily, with Shae being the one who saw through the disguise even embarassing Varys. Twice we are reminded by Tyrion though during his escape that Varys's face is smooth and soft and bald, and that the sole form of disguise is a rapdily thrown begging robe with a cowl to hide his face. Varys wasn't prepared to personally rescue Tyrion, because he put on the bare minimum for disguise. The way that Tyrion sees a soft white face actually hints that Varys didn't even wash of the powder from his face. 

 
Quote

 

A whiff of something rank made him turn his head. Shae stood in the door behind him, dressed in the silvery robe he'd given her. I loved a maid as white as winter, with moonglow in her hair. Behind her stood one of the begging brothers, a portly man in filthy patched robes, his bare feet crusty with dirt, a bowl hung about his neck on a leather thong where a septon would have worn a crystal. The smell of him would have gagged a rat.
"Lord Varys has come to see you," Shae announced.
The begging brother blinked at her, astonished. Tyrion laughed. "To be sure. How is it you knew him when I did not?"
She shrugged. "It's still him. Only dressed different."

"A different look, a different smell, a different way of walking," said Tyrion. "Most men would be deceived."

"And most women, maybe. But not whores. A whore learns to see the man, not his garb, or she turns up dead in an alley."

Varys looked pained, and not because of the false scabs on his feet. Tyrion chuckled. (aCoK, Tyrion X)

The eunuch was lurking in the dark of a twisting turnpike stair, garbed in a moth-eaten brown robe with a hood that hid the paleness of his face. (aSoS, Tyrion XI)

The master of whisperers had been dressed as a begging brother, in a moth-eaten robe of brown roughspun with a cowl that shadowed his smooth fat cheeks and bald round head.  (aDwD, Tyrion I)

 

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, you should be well aware that Rugen wasn't a turnkey. He was an undergoaler. If you don't know the difference go and ask the chief undergoaloer Rennifer Longwaters about the details.

I know the difference. Jaime doesn't care about Longwaters or the difference between turnkeys and undergoalers.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaime knows that Rugen is Varys. He does not conclude this later on because Rugen is gone, he knows that this is the case. How he knows we don't know.

If we don't know "how", then we don't know "when" Jaime came to know it, and indeed he might have concluded it because of evidence during the search, and because of his own involvement in the rescue.

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2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Mace Tyrell is very surprised and speechless and fumbling for words when Cersei lies about having appointed Rosby instead. His reactionis genuine. You aren't Mace, and Mace isn't you. On top of that, Mace relays the news about Garth's coming as if he believes Cersei is aware of this appointment - "Good news, Garth is on his way to Oldtown."

We don't know how good an actor Mace is, do we?

But this wasn't my main point. The main point is that we have no reason to believe the appointment of the new Master of Coin and the sentence of Tyrion Lannister are connected.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If we follow your reasoning on most textual evidence in the books, we should throw out at least half of the pieces of infromation we're given in the text because of the assumption that they're a lie. Tristan Flowers - according to you lied to about the GC's job. Jon Connington - lied to (aside from Aegon) about Illyrio's plans for Viserys. Tywin - all lies. Mace Tyrell - now he's lying too. Ain't that convenient to say about characters who had off-page dealings with the people that might shed a light on everything. Just throw out half the text, because "hey, x might be lying," AND "because it disagrees with my assumptions on Y" and just make up your own fanfic.

That is not the case.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It is a discussion of all of Illyrio's expectations being wrong. Which we did discuss, which you deny is a plot point about Illyrio, which you wave off as not important making generalizations about everybody being disappointed in life about something once.

LOL, it is a plot point about every character that his or her expectations were wrong. That is nothing special about Illyrio Mopatis. 

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

No, nobody says "Oh, I was supposed to meet the Golden Company, Drogo and Viserys with Aegon two years ago." It's inferred. Instead one character has a discussion on a certain topic (Illyrio's expectations and plans that at some point in time included Viserys, until he died before his time), and then another character of the Golden Company refers to the same plan. And both display equal impatience and being fed up with Illyrio's plans. Cry high and low that's not George's MO, but well just look at the theories about "the catspaw that was to kill Bran", and "was it the lemon pie, the pigeon or cup". So, YES that chapter indicates Viserys and Drogo were supposed to work together with the Golden Company as well as JonCon (and thus Aegon). You are free to disregard the indication for it, by all means. But you claiming that there isn't an indication for it is wrong, certainly when you have to resort to "well it's lies". 

You don't understand. It is quite clear that they are impatient. The Viserys-Dotrahki-Golden-Company plan is supposed to precede the Aegon plan. And the fact that this part of the 'grand plan' Connington is involved in got postponed and changed again and again irritates him. It also irritates the men of the Golden Company.

But that is all no proof that Aegon and Connington were to join the Golden Company and Viserys and the Dothraki.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Again, give me the quote. Search for it and provide the link. A not-yet-revealed role can mean lots of things, including the possibility that Varys led Tyrion to Tywin's room not to kill him, but have Tywin convince Tyrion to take the black the next day. Even in such circumstances, Tyrion would have been put on a ship, that Varys never planned to sail for Eastwatch but Essos.

I'm here to provide you with stuff you could have found and read yourself. If you want to keep track of things you have to do that yourself.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I'm not saying Tywin has "fatherly affections". I don't think Roose has "fatherly affections" for Ramsay either, but he is not keen on murdering Ramsay, not keen to taint himself with "kinslaying". The same sentiment has stayed Tywin's hand since Tyrion's birth. Tywin tries to make such a deal with Tyrion before. And thus there is longtime precedent that Tywin wishes to avoid killing Tyrion, even if he abhors him.

Tywin sits in judgment over a son who is accused of regicide and kinslaying. He believes he is guilty. And if he is guilty he should be executed. That is the proper punishment. If Tywin cannot do that he is the wrong place.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I would never propose Tywin as "father of the year". But that confrontational chapter between Tywin and Tyrion is more one of truths than lies. A summary of truths in that chapter -

  1. the truth that Tywin beds whores himself
  2. the truth that Tywin beds the whore he forbade his son to take to KL
  3. the truth that Tywin truly is convinced that Tysha was a whore
  4. the truth that Tywin doesn't shit gold
  5. the truth that Tywin never beleived Tyrion would shoot him

You can phrase anything you want as 'the truth that...'. What is the point of that? And you are grasping at things with that ridiculous gold-shitting thing. Nobody actually believed Tywin Lannister did shit gold.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

With all the truth lying about our ears in that chapter, then I think considering Tywin spoke truthfully about still wanting Tyrion to take the black the next day, instead of chopping his head off, is warranted.

This is only about 'truths' because you made it about that. This is just as much about lies. About Tywin lying about not knowing Tysha's name or where she went, about Varys lying that he doesn't want Tyrion to go up that ladder, about Tyrion lying to Jaime about murdering Joffrey, about Tyrion lying to Jaime about Cersei.

I agree that Tywin didn't believe Tyrion would shoot him. That's why he is in control of the situation until he is shot dead. If he had been afraid he would not have been able to hide his fear. However, the idea that Tywin would allow his son to go to the Wall after his threatened him with a crossbow on the privy and killed the whore in his bed is very unlikely.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And as I already said, and which you acknoweldged to "know", Illyrio's arrangement was not even meant to succeed by Illyrio. It's like Illyrio for a moment making Tyrion believe that the mushrooms he's being offered are poisoned, except they're not. "Trust a little".

That is completely irrelevant to the point. Illyrio can arrange assassination attempts. Such that are set up to fail and such that will succeed.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Tywin's not grasping for straws. Men grasping for straws don't talk flippant, dismissive and unconcerned.

He is in the sense that he tries to calm Tyrion down with a prospect that is now certainly not going to be realized - that he will be sent to the Wall.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That's what I said!

Well he SAYS SO!!!! He says he needed Mace's consent. I'll put it in red, bold and supersize so you can read it. 

It doesn't say he got that consent, though. He says he couldn't do it without Lord Tyrell's consent but he never clarified he got that consent.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Because they judged Tyrion guilty of poisoning the cup, and thus is pictured to the court and realm as not just wanting to kill Joffrey but Mace's daughter too. Of course Mace would care whether his daughter's would-be-murderer lives or dies.

Tywin Lannister also judges Tyrion Lannister guilty of poisoning the cup his royal grandson drank from. Why should Tywin not have even a stronger desire to see Tyrion dead for that? He does everything in his power to ensure Tyrion is humiliated during the trial and he allows Cersei and Shae to completely destroy his reputation.

He is also the one who invites Oberyn and Mace to join him on the trial. He did not have to do that. He was the King's Hand. He could have chosen anyone he wanted. He may have done that to have pretext to sentence Tyrion to death, knowing that Mace wanted Tyrion's head, too. 

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He does have to make a deal if he does not wish to risk an outrage fom the Tyrells about letting the would-be-murderer of Margaery live - Hand or no Hand. Tywin wants peace in the realm and stability at court, and Tywin does need the Tyrells for that. Heck, even Kevan makes clear to Cersei how much Tywin beleived this, warning her against offending them or worse.

The would-be murder of Margaery pales in relation to the actual murder of King Joffrey. And Tywin is the one who has the upper hand here, anyway. He will decide whether King Tommen is going to marry Margaery or not. You may recall that he intended to marry Jaime to Margaery instead of Tommen. He is in the much stronger position, anyway. 

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It all depends on what Jaime did, and whether Mace can push personal grievances, yes.

Mace has to suck up to the Lannisters still. The Lannisters still do need the Tyrells but the Tyrells have to ask for Tommen's hand. They can't demand it.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Less silly than the purposefulness absurdness you proposed abotu eating them.

Honestly, I don't think so. People don't eat dragon eggs, yes, but people also don't think they can decide what people do with wedding gifts they give them.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He tries to convince Viserys to stay in Pentos. Jorah confirms and reminds us that Illyrio tried to several chapters later. Yes, he cared whether Viserys went to Vaes Dothrak or not. He didn't want him to go.

But he doesn't go as far as could have to convince him to stay. Again, why didn't he tell him about Aegon? Why didn't he call Aegon and Connington to Pentos to meet him?

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I'm not saying anything about Aegon showing up at her wedding or before she left.

But you claim that Illyrio intended that Daenerys as Drogo's wife was supposed to meet Aegon. So why didn't they introduce Aegon to Dany before the wedding, so that she could already bond with him?

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I disagree that she wouldn't have given a shit about Aegon's the son of Rhaegar (as far as she knows) and she's a fan of Rhaegar, thinking of him a lot in aGoT while WITH Drogo. She thinks of Rhaegar's son when she's near due too. And she thinks of Aegon the Conquerer as many times as she thinks of Rhaegar. In her development in the timer period of aGoT or aCoK she would have been overjoyed to learn that Rhaegar's son had survived after all. Especially after Viserys's, she'd have family again. Heck, she saw a vision of Rhaegar with Aegon and pronoucing him the PtwP. And she wasn't as suspicous of people back then either.

She is suspicious as hell of Illyrio and his motivations. The Dany of AGoT wouldn't have trusted Aegon had he been introduced to her by Illyrio. She only changes her view on Illyrio after her dragon eggs hatch. And she still owes Illyrio for the eggs. She won't turn against him unless she has a very good reason.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It's in Mereen that she becomes markedly distrustful of people, wondering this or that person is gonna betray her, because then she learns that the knight who argued to distrust this or that person had been Varys's spy all along.

That already begins in AGoT with Mirri Maz Duur and continues in Qarth, for obvious reasons. In Slaver's Bay she betrays people. They betray her, too, of course, but she is pretty much suspicious of everyone.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

splitting hairs are you? You asked for references about foreshadowed death, wanted hints of it as far back as aGot, and something similar as the "golden goose concept". The first hints of Robb's death are in aGoT, though vague ones. George's editor confirmed that is how he foreshadows - vague, illustrative, the plan. The vague hints are dropped in unrelated setting/scene and usually metaphorical and symbolical (for Robb the scene in Bran's chapter with Tyrion's visit), then illustrative imagery of the death (a mute king with a wolf's head, Theon's dream), and then the how-plot.

That has nothing to do with your golden goose story. There you know when something is happens and before or after what other plot development it happens. You know it will be an uprising in Pentos and that Illyrio will die, and people will claim his rings for some reason.

That is much more concrete than vague hints for death. Those are there for Daenerys, too, in AGoT.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Well then why ask about Robert and Ned foreshadowing? There is no specific foreshadowing image that it will be a boar in Robert's case (haven't looked of rit), but that it would be hunting or forest related is hinted by the heavy Dionysus connections for Robert the negative connotations of drinking and his wenching) together with the sacrifical stag sigil. Those cursed by Dionysus (alcoholics) end up being torn to shreds in forests.

Now you're changing the goalposts. The hints that Ned will be beheaded are prominent. I made no claim who actually will butcher Illyrio.

You claim when and how Illyrio will die. The stag-direwolf imagery actually foreshadows that Robert will kill Ned. He is the stag, not Joffrey.

You also claim that your golden goose story is how George writes his series. Now, if that was the case then there would have been similar concrete things in the first two books about the specific death scenes of Lysa, Tywin, Jeor, Joffrey, Robb, Catelyn, etc.

And those are simply not there. There are concrete hints that are easy to figure out. You don't need something like your golden goose story to do that.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Actually it does. When George repeats something twiceor thrice this closely together it is meaningful. Repeating something is "stressing". Other ways are bringing in the color "red" (like a marker). George doesn't want us to forget it or just read across it. He does it,because he wants us to notice it. These are literary wirting tricks. 

I know that, but they don't necessarily along to spin concrete scenario how the plot is going to develop. Those things also are often used to create a certain atmosphere or create parallels between characters and stories.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That's not what I tried to claim. What it means is that Dany and her army can move faster than Illyrio can locate her.

You can't know that right now. It goes completely against the story as it has been presented right now. The grey sheep also don't know where Dany is right now but we have gotten a reasonably good hint that they might try to kill her-

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I do not have to prove that caravans move slower than dragons and ships. That's a fact, and well established in the series, starting with Robert's caravan returning to KL from WF taking months, while Cat who leaves later can reach KL well ahead of them by ship.

That is a single ship. Not an armada. And again, Dany might return to Slaver's Bay before she moves east. People will learn where she is and people will tell Illyrio.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And first you say I don't know, but apparently you know exactly every city she will hit. Double standard?

Those are unresolved plot threads. The warlocks tried to murder her. Xaro and the Pureborn declared war on her. Do you think she is going to allow them to get away with that?

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

This is pure denial of the plot where George makes sure that even if Selmy wants to keep it for her, it's not worth keeping. To keep it is suicide. Does Selmy choose suicide to keep stones or life to save her people? Heart-wrenching choice for Selmy, because yes in a way he will feel he's abandoning Dany's wishes AND Dany herself. That Selmy is forced to go against Dany's prior wishes is already shown with the Pentos deal. Selmy knows what the Tattered Prince wants and relays it to Dany, who says "no" at the time. Instead Quinten makes the deal, but he dies. In order to save Dany's lover and bloodbrothers he ends up making the deal while she's absent. 

That is all irrelevant. Daenerys' freedmen and reformed Ghiscari don't want to leave. And they have no reason to go to Volantis, either. What should they do there?

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If Dany wanted to rule Yunkai she would have done so. She chose Mereen instead. Mereen will be death to all, and the Yunkai circus is at and end at the start of tWoW. But Volantis is the real threat. Going to Yunkai to be attacked there repeatedly by Volantis is pointless. Defeat Volantis and you control the Summer Sea and Slaver's Bay.

Volantis is no threat at all. The Volantenes are coming to them and will kill them all unless the tiger soldiers rebel. But they are not likely to do that while they believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead and gone. Perhaps they will besiege Dany's people in Meereen and only change colors after Dany's return. We don't know as of yet. Dany is the Breaker of Shackles, not her lieutenants and advisers.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I think you proposed that Dany will first conquer Tyrosh, Lys and Myr... I expect them to be smarter than that. I expect some envoy dispatched by them ASAP after Volantis falls where they voluntarily denounce slavery to save their skin, especially because of Waters with his fleet that he stole from Cersei west of them. Without sellsword companies for hire anymore those three cities cannot hope to put up any resistance against those forces, especially if the slave trade in Slaver's Bay and Volantis is at an end as well.

There are two score of free companies in the Disputed Lands. The Three Daughters and Stannis have both more than enough left to hire.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

News from Vaes Dothrak takes months. By the time that Illyrio has news of Dany in Vaes Dothrak, she's gone. The various khalasars JonCon hears about on the Rhoyne are khalasars not in Vaes Dothrak, but moving nearby the area.

But people constantly travel in those regions. And it is obviously the case that people can get an advance warning if some enemy force is approaching. People see this happening. And they flee. And then they tell others. And those people flee, too. And they spread the tale. That is not that difficult to understand.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The principle of not wasting resources.

But if Varys was never grooming Tyrion to become his asset he would have not taken him in. He wouldn't have been a resource. He would have been a potential danger.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He was a begging brother once before, much better disguised then (props, gait, etc), because Tyrion then admitted that he wouldn't have recognized him as easily, with Shae being the one who saw through the disguise even embarassing Varys. Twice we are reminded by Tyrion though during his escape that Varys's face is smooth and soft and bald, and that the sole form of disguise is a rapdily thrown begging robe with a cowl to hide his face. Varys wasn't prepared to personally rescue Tyrion, because he put on the bare minimum for disguise. The way that Tyrion sees a soft white face actually hints that Varys didn't even wash of the powder from his face. 

Those things are completely unconnected. Varys was actually hanging out in the city when he disguised himself as a begging brother in ACoK. In ASoS he just disguised himself to accompany Tyrion to his ship. We have no reason to assume he hid in the city later on.

It is also possible that those are two different disguises.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
I know the difference. Jaime doesn't care about Longwaters or the difference between turnkeys and undergoalers.

If we don't know "how", then we don't know "when" Jaime came to know it, and indeed he might have concluded it because of evidence during the search, and because of his own involvement in the rescue.

Jaime knows. He does not conclude anything. He knows Varys is Rugen and he thinks questioning Longwaters is nonsense. He couldn't be certain Varys was Rugen if he didn't know. After all, perhaps Varys had killed Rugen or Rugen was one of Varys' buddies?

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On 5/30/2017 at 6:34 AM, kissdbyfire said:

According to Martin the eggs hatching was a unique magical event.

from an online chat back in 1999:

Granny Do Targaryens become immune to fire once they "bond" to their dragons? 
 
George_RR_Martin Granny, thanks for asking that. It gives me a chance to clear up a common misconception. TARGARYENS ARE NOT IMMUNE TO FIRE! The birth of Dany's dragons was unique, magical, wonderous, a miracle. She is called The Unburnt because she walked into the flames and lived. But her brother sure as hell wasn't immune to that molten gold. 
Revanshe So she won't be able to do it again?
George_RR_Martin Probably not.

AND George has the right to change his mind and did.  Reread the scene at Daznak's Pit.  One of the best chapters in the whole story.  You can't burn someone's hair and not suffer extensive burns.  While it may be a unique event, it doesn't mean that anybody else could have done it.  Daenerys is very special. 

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On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm here to provide you with stuff you could have found and read yourself. If you want to keep track of things you have to do that yourself.

If you want to argue it, then provide it. It's not my responsibility to find the evidence for your claims.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

The main point is that we have no reason to believe the appointment of the new Master of Coin and the sentence of Tyrion Lannister are connected.

Actually there is enough reason to believe it - Tywin had to get Mace to agree, a slot was open for the master of coin, Tywin agreed to give another small council position to a Tyrell man, and Cersei knows nothing about it (Tywin sure as hell wouldn't have told Cersei the deal for Tyrion's life), just like she knows nothing about Shae being her father's whore, murdered on the night when Tywin insists to Tyrion he's still going to the Wall.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, it is a plot point about every character that his or her expectations were wrong. That is nothing special about Illyrio Mopatis. 

None so stressed as about Illyrio, just like it's stressed that Margaery ends up a widow time after time

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin sits in judgment over a son who is accused of regicide and kinslaying. He believes he is guilty. And if he is guilty he should be executed. That is the proper punishment. If Tywin cannot do that he is the wrong place.

irrelevant to the topic of discussion

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

You can phrase anything you want as 'the truth that...'. What is the point of that?

A literary thematic point about Tywin in the chapter

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

About Tywin lying about not knowing Tysha's name or where she went, about Varys lying that he doesn't want Tyrion to go up that ladder, about Tyrion lying to Jaime about murdering Joffrey, about Tyrion lying to Jaime about Cersei.

Is Tywin lying thet he forgot her name? Forgotting people's names that are irrelevant in someone's eyes is quite common.

That Tyrion lies, while Tywin is being truthful only serves the contrast.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is completely irrelevant to the point. Illyrio can arrange assassination attempts. Such that are set up to fail and such that will succeed.

When Dany stays in the same location for months, waiting to deliver. Only reason that Drogo left Vaes Dothrak was to suddenly invade ASAP ater the failed assassination.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin Lannister also judges Tyrion Lannister guilty of poisoning the cup his royal grandson drank from. Why should Tywin not have even a stronger desire to see Tyrion dead for that? He does everything in his power to ensure Tyrion is humiliated during the trial and he allows Cersei and Shae to completely destroy his reputation.

For the same reason that Roose Bolton does not kill Ramsay - Tywin doesn't want to kill his own kin. That he finds him guilty and allows him to be humiliated is irrelevant, because it ain't kinslaying.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Honestly, I don't think so. People don't eat dragon eggs, yes, but people also don't think they can decide what people do with wedding gifts they give them.

Straw man. Never said that Illyrio decided what Dany has to do with them. It's more something he trusted she would end up doing.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

But he doesn't go as far as could have to convince him to stay. Again, why didn't he tell him about Aegon? Why didn't he call Aegon and Connington to Pentos to meet him?

I'd say for one, because Aegon likely wasn't an official adult yet, and secondly, it risked Viserys wanting to marry Dany to Aegon and losing out on the Dothraki army, when Illyrio wrongly supposes that Dany is but a fragile, frightened, weak minded thing under the power of her domineering brother.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

She is suspicious as hell of Illyrio and his motivations. The Dany of AGoT wouldn't have trusted Aegon had he been introduced to her by Illyrio. She only changes her view on Illyrio after her dragon eggs hatch. And she still owes Illyrio for the eggs. She won't turn against him unless she has a very good reason.

She isn't suspicious of Illyrio once she falls in love with Drogo and feels empowered.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

That has nothing to do with your golden goose story. There you know when something is happens and before or after what other plot development it happens. You know it will be an uprising in Pentos and that Illyrio will die, and people will claim his rings for some reason.

The golden goose hints are the vague part. It's not until we get the butchery image that the death possibility is actually suggested, and then GRRM gives thrice over a plan to take Pentos. Just because the hints in aDwD become clearer and more pronounced, does not mean there isn't a vague allusion - and the golden goose story is a vague allusion, because it doesn't say precisely how or in what event.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

The stag-direwolf imagery actually foreshadows that Robert will kill Ned. He is the stag, not Joffrey.

I wasn't referring to the stag-direwolf imagery. I was referring to the Hand of the Tourney scene of the beheading of Gregor's stallion.

As for the dead direwolf mother - officially Joffrey is a Baratheon, though he isn't in truth.

But the Ned-Robert story in aGoT is how Ned's faith in Robert to control and war against his in-laws out of "love for Ned (and his dead sister)" is wrong, and that it is this faith in Robert that will be his downfall and ultimately the death of him. And thus in a metaphorical way, Robert is the death of Ned, even if not a literal way. Meanwhile Stannis is unresponsive to any of Ned's messages. And Renly runs out on Ned. So yeah, the stag was the deah of him.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

You also claim that your golden goose story is how George writes his series. Now, if that was the case then there would have been similar concrete things in the first two books about the specific death scenes of Lysa, Tywin, Jeor, Joffrey, Robb, Catelyn, etc.

Jeor is the sacrifical bear, and he ain't the only one.

I haven't looked into Lysa, Tywin and Joffrey yet. I gave you the hints for Robb, but symbolically he's an Anubis, as is Rickon. For Catelyn the catspaw attack definitely makes her the embodiment of Night itself already. Haven't checked in faiyrtales yet. It's not because of lack of symbolism present. It's because it requires some time and focus on one character.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

There are concrete hints that are easy to figure out. You don't need something like your golden goose story to do that.

I didn't say you need to the golden goose story for that. The butcher imagery and the thirce repeated "conquer Pentos" is plenty enough. It only adds to it.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

It goes completely against the story as it has been presented right now.

Well you and I disagree on where this story is going. And your opinion is just your opinion, just as mine is only mine. And yes I can definitely know that Dany move faster than Illyrio. Plain logistics.

Spoiler

Dany may not set sail for Westeros befoe the end of tWoW according to George, but that doesn't mean she's stuck in Vaes Dothrak for the whole book. It just means she'll be in Essos, somwhere. And her army doesn't have to wait for her either. But I suspect you're going by S6 of the show on this. Well you know what we have to say about the show, right?

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is a single ship. Not an armada. And again, Dany might return to Slaver's Bay before she moves east. People will learn where she is and people will tell Illyrio.

And an armada still journeys faster than overland caravans. Supposedly this would even be an armady with a magician who's even more skilled than Mel. How fast did Stannis get from Dragonstone to Eastwatch again? Those people who will learn where she is still have to travel to Illyrio, unless he acquired himself a glass candle. Evidently he doesn't, or there wouldn't have been a lag on his knowledge of Viserys' death.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Those are unresolved plot threads. The warlocks tried to murder her. Xaro and the Pureborn declared war on her. Do you think she is going to allow them to get away with that?

Her armies can move and act without her being there. That's why we have Selmy. He's making decisions in her absence.

 

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Daenerys' freedmen and reformed Ghiscari don't want to leave.

They sure as hell will want to leave with the Pale Mare inside the city

will reply to the rest later... off to work

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The baby prince was actually a doll when the Mountain got there IMHO. Poor Elia and her daughter (I think her baby son lives, because he was smuggled out.) The girl was found hiding under her dad's bed, and I have panic attacks thinking of this. When was the last time Rhaegar saw his kids that he had with Elia?

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7 hours ago, Targaryen Restoration said:

AND George has the right to change his mind and did.  Reread the scene at Daznak's Pit.  One of the best chapters in the whole story.  You can't burn someone's hair and not suffer extensive burns.  While it may be a unique event, it doesn't mean that anybody else could have done it.  Daenerys is very special. 

I don't think he changed his mind. And sure, Dany is very special (where did I say otherwise?), as are a bunch of other characters. 

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On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Volantis is no threat at all. The Volantenes are coming to them and will kill them all unless the tiger soldiers rebel. But they are not likely to do that while they believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead and gone. Perhaps they will besiege Dany's people in Meereen and only change colors after Dany's return. We don't know as of yet. Dany is the Breaker of Shackles, not her lieutenants and advisers.

The fleet is already on their way. They won't turn back again. So, after the Yunkai are done early on in tWoW, they'll face the Volantene fleet. Pointless plot otherwise. But there's no reason to believe they will kill all. They've got 3 major sellsword companies: Storm Crows, Windblow, Second Sons, an army of Unsullied, and an Ironborn fleet, and people without a home anymore because of the pale mare and thus willing to fight to the death, and two dragons. I very much doubt that the Volantene fleet will be anything worth against Ironborn.

Why the heck would the tiger soldiers rebel? You do know that the tigers are the most aggressive and always wish to go on war right? That it are the Elephants who usually wish to prefer diplomacy. You do know that the tigers won the election right?

George made it so that Dany is NOT in Mereen and even her own people beleive she's dead. He had the dragons freed from their prison so they can follow and fly with Dany's people wherever they go. And he gave us 3 POVs in the same location at present, and not to twiddle their thumbs for the off chance she reappears months later out of the Dothraki Sea when they believe her dead, especially now that hundred bodies of pale male have been flung in every  part of the city (including the better areas).

They won't go east again to Qarth. They'll strike west in order to get to Pentos, and deliver it as promised, with or without Dany. And along the way east, Volantis is the first big city they'll hit. And without a fleet and without significant sellsword companies they'll be sitting ducks. And it's the likeliest place for Dany to catch up. Because news travels to Vaes Dothrak as do khalasars, so she'll find out that Volantis sent a fleet to Mereen, and that the Yunkai were defeated, and Mereen was abandoned because of the pale mare. Once Volantis falls, and no significant sellsword companies to be hired, Lys, Tyrosh and Myr will choose diplomacy, because they don't have an army of their own, and they'll swear off slave trade, just so their cities won't get sacked.

Having everyone wait in Mereen for Dany does nothing. The only way for George to still have Dany go to Vaes Dothrak without neglecting or delaying the conquering and liberating would be by splitting it up. And he already showed he will let others handle Slaver's Bay while Dany is off in the Dothraki Sea by having Selmy lock up Hizdar, plan an attack against Yunkai outside the walls and agree to the Pentos deal. Oh, and you have Tyrion there who can tell Selmy that Aegon Targaryen sailed West with the Golden Company and is conquering Westeros. All it takes for Selmy to believe she died, to move west. It's time Dany's "children" to grow up.

Sounds to me you're basing your fanfic and assertions that only Dany may do something in Essos on S6 of the show which was utterly pointless and well does it differently: no pale mare bodies flung over the walls, no ridiculous circus army on stilts and dragging chains, no Volantene fleet.

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

There are two score of free companies in the Disputed Lands. The Three Daughters and Stannis have both more than enough left to hire.

Stannis hires the remainder. A lot of the free companies are but small in numbers. The Bloody Mummers were a free company. They weren't hundreds in size though, let alone thousands. The largest are taken already. Sellsword companies also prefer most of all to be on the winning side. So, against bundled forces with a raider fleet who sacked Volantis, those 16 others will either say "let's join 'em" or "let's seek our fortune with Stannis. We're sure to be paid there, because the Iron Bank backs him."

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

But people constantly travel in those regions. And it is obviously the case that people can get an advance warning if some enemy force is approaching. People see this happening. And they flee. And then they tell others. And those people flee, too. And they spread the tale. That is not that difficult to understand.

Yes, but they can't run faster than ships sail and dragons fly. The only way some news can travel somewhat fast is along the Rhoyne, except it has to go upriver, which is slower than downriver. 

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

But if Varys was never grooming Tyrion to become his asset he would have not taken him in. He wouldn't have been a resource. He would have been a potential danger.

Tyrion always had potential. There's little grooming needed. Duck and Haldon weren't chosen by Varys. They were already with the Golden Company. JonCon asked for a man at arms to train Aegon and Strickland sent Duck. Something similar happened with Haldon because he was known in the Golden Company and greeted by people. Rolly and Haldon both know Young Griff is Aegon. If these exiles can be recruited without Varys's help, then I'm sure that an otherwise smart dwarf who cannot return to Westeros without losing his head, unless he helps a Targaryen conquer Westeros will do fine too.

 

On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Those things are completely unconnected. Varys was actually hanging out in the city when he disguised himself as a begging brother in ACoK. In ASoS he just disguised himself to accompany Tyrion to his ship. We have no reason to assume he hid in the city later on.

It is also possible that those are two different disguises.

It is related, because Varys didn't remain in the Red Keep. He went somewhere for months, and it wasn't the keep. And after Tywin was shot, while there are guards in front of his rooms, Varys couldn't risk going to and fro, because everybody would be on the alert. 

Begging brother and begging brother aren't two disguises at all. They're supposed to look the same. However, the first time it was with all the mummery. The second time it was only the robe, and nothing extra. The disguise was likely ok for only accompanying Tyrion below the red keep, without the intent to flee. But it was ill-prepared for mummery afterwards. That's one of the reasons that I think Varys didn't send Tyrion up there to kill Tywin. 

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On 3/6/2017 at 11:56 PM, Lord Varys said:

Jaime knows. He does not conclude anything. He knows Varys is Rugen and he thinks questioning Longwaters is nonsense. He couldn't be certain Varys was Rugen if he didn't know. After all, perhaps Varys had killed Rugen or Rugen was one of Varys' buddies?

Jaime wouldn't have interviewed Longwaters first.

First, Jaime pretended to search beneath the keep immediately after the alert of Tywin's death. Meanwhile two of the sleeping guards are killed. Within hours Jaime would have had to search the undergoaler cells of the others, the ones that weren't killed, especially of the 3rd level witht he dark cells. One he would find empty, and he'll put 2 and 2 together. Only afterwards he would speak with Longwaters to go through the motions of inquiring after Rugen and pretending it's someone else than Varys.

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10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If you want to argue it, then provide it. It's not my responsibility to find the evidence for your claims.

Well, I have better things to do than to look for stuff you can find on your own if you actual cared about new information.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Actually there is enough reason to believe it - Tywin had to get Mace to agree, a slot was open for the master of coin, Tywin agreed to give another small council position to a Tyrell man, and Cersei knows nothing about it (Tywin sure as hell wouldn't have told Cersei the deal for Tyrion's life), just like she knows nothing about Shae being her father's whore, murdered on the night when Tywin insists to Tyrion he's still going to the Wall.

The idea that Mace was the driving force in trying to get Tyrion killed is just silly. Tywin himself was a witness to Joffrey's murder. Had he refused to even arrest his son the man wouldn't have been arrested, never mind what Cersei said. Tywin was the one charge. And Tywin allowed Cersei to continue. Tywin also chose the judges and decided to conduct a trial. If he didn't want Tyrion dead he sure as hell did anything in his power to prevent the reader and Tyrion himself from realizing this.

Kevan makes it clear that he believes Tyrion is guilty. And Kevan usually speaks for Tywin. The idea that Tywin would allow the murderer of his royal grandson to save his life is not very likely.

But even if he did there is no reason to believe this story about the Master of Coin figuring into all that. The Tyrells and Tywin had much more important agreements to reach. 

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

None so stressed as about Illyrio, just like it's stressed that Margaery ends up a widow time after time.

I guess you reread the books again.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Is Tywin lying thet he forgot her name? Forgotting people's names that are irrelevant in someone's eyes is quite common.

The man has just been fucking Tyrion's other whore and mistress. Tyrion's sex life is very much on his mind. He doesn't admit that but no man doing that can tell me he doesn't remember the name of a woman he had gang-raped by his men, his own son among them. Tywin knows who Tysha is and he also knows who Shae is. He just pretends he doesn't.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That Tyrion lies, while Tywin is being truthful only serves the contrast.

This chapter isn't only about Tyrion and Tywin. It includes a lot of other people as well you are ignoring to make things fit your view. Did Shae lie, too, before she was strangled? I don't think so.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

For the same reason that Roose Bolton does not kill Ramsay - Tywin doesn't want to kill his own kin. That he finds him guilty and allows him to be humiliated is irrelevant, because it ain't kinslaying.

Tywin doesn't sees Tyrion as his son. And Joffrey was Joanna's grandson, too. He deserves to die. She would approve. Or that's what Tywin may tell himself.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Straw man. Never said that Illyrio decided what Dany has to do with them. It's more something he trusted she would end up doing.

That is just a ridiculous idea. No realistic literary character acts in such a convoluted manner.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I'd say for one, because Aegon likely wasn't an official adult yet, and secondly, it risked Viserys wanting to marry Dany to Aegon and losing out on the Dothraki army, when Illyrio wrongly supposes that Dany is but a fragile, frightened, weak minded thing under the power of her domineering brother.

Viserys III wanted to marry Daenerys to Khal Drogo. It was a deal between him and Drogo. Illyrio only helped him with that. And no, we don't know whether this was originally Illyrio's idea or not. And there is also no reason to assume Viserys III would have ever considered marrying Dany to Aegon. If he had not decided to marry her to Drogo he would have married her himself, as he originally intended to. That's the Targaryen way. A marriage between siblings is ideal. You only marry an aunt or a cousin if there is no sister to marry.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

She isn't suspicious of Illyrio once she falls in love with Drogo and feels empowered.

Reread the relevant Daenerys chapters of AGoT. You clearly don't know the books well enough.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The golden goose hints are the vague part. It's not until we get the butchery image that the death possibility is actually suggested, and then GRRM gives thrice over a plan to take Pentos. Just because the hints in aDwD become clearer and more pronounced, does not mean there isn't a vague allusion - and the golden goose story is a vague allusion, because it doesn't say precisely how or in what event.

The fact that George does give us hints that people will take Pentos isn't a hint that this is actually going to happen. A lot of things that were hinted at in those books didn't yet happen and some can no longer happen. If the Tattered Prince dies in battle nobody will take Pentos. And he is a pretty old man already. He may even mount the Pale Mare.

And even if Pentos is taken - Illyrio might long be gone. The idea that he remains there is just not very likely.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I wasn't referring to the stag-direwolf imagery. I was referring to the Hand of the Tourney scene of the beheading of Gregor's stallion.

I know that. But that isn't connected to Ned's execution.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As for the dead direwolf mother - officially Joffrey is a Baratheon, though he isn't in truth.

Indeed. Which means that proper magical prophetic hints should reflect things as they are not as they appear. It is Robert who gets Ned killed in a very real sense. Robert's stupidity and carelessness. And his selfish 'friendship' with Ned.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

But the Ned-Robert story in aGoT is how Ned's faith in Robert to control and war against his in-laws out of "love for Ned (and his dead sister)" is wrong, and that it is this faith in Robert that will be his downfall and ultimately the death of him. And thus in a metaphorical way, Robert is the death of Ned, even if not a literal way. Meanwhile Stannis is unresponsive to any of Ned's messages. And Renly runs out on Ned. So yeah, the stag was the deah of him.

Yeah.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I haven't looked into Lysa, Tywin and Joffrey yet. I gave you the hints for Robb, but symbolically he's an Anubis, as is Rickon. For Catelyn the catspaw attack definitely makes her the embodiment of Night itself already. Haven't checked in faiyrtales yet. It's not because of lack of symbolism present. It's because it requires some time and focus on one character.

Well, those are meaningless associations on your part. You can take any line in the books, blow it out of proportion, imbue it with some special meaning, and then declare the author meant it your way without having any evidence beside your claim. That is what you seem to be doing most of the time. 

George puts a lot of real hints in those stories. But he also wants to surprise the reader as well as himself. He hasn't planned everything and he won't foreshadow everything he has planned. 

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I didn't say you need to the golden goose story for that. The butcher imagery and the thirce repeated "conquer Pentos" is plenty enough. It only adds to it.

Again, Illyrio isn't Pentos. Just as Winterfell isn't the Starks. It fell, but the Starks survived. And the fact that the Targaryens lost the Iron Throne doesn't mean they can't regain it.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Well you and I disagree on where this story is going. And your opinion is just your opinion, just as mine is only mine. And yes I can definitely know that Dany move faster than Illyrio. Plain logistics.

I don't like the idea that Dany will go to Vaes Dothrak. At all. I don't like the Dothraki. But the House of the Undying is pretty clear on the fact that the dosh khaleen will bow down to her at the Womb of the World. For that Daenerys has to go back to Vaes Dothrak. And if she does the sole purpose of this will be that she is going to take over all the khalasars of the Dothraki as the Stallion that Mounts the World.

This development was even hinted at in the original outline. Daenerys Targaryen will conquer Westeros (also) with an army of Dothraki. You don't have to look for the show to know that this will happen.

And I've written rather extensively about the fact that this very plot in itself isn't going to happen in few short chapters. There are vast distances to be traveled, a lot of people going to be involved in, and a lot of challenges to be overcome. Many Dothraki won't look forward to be ruled by a former khalessi as their god-empress. There will be resistance. Resistance Daenerys has to overcome. Nothing would be more boring if her chapters in TWoW read like a synopsis of a story, not an actual story with details.

Considering that we also know that TWoW is going to have all the POVs back in one book we are not likely to get more than 5-7 Daenerys chapters at the most. Her story is not going to progress very far in those chapters. Especially in light of the fact that her chapters in the beginning won't show her in Vaes Dothrak at all considering that George first has to depict and wrap up the battles.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:
  Reveal hidden contents

Dany may not set sail for Westeros befoe the end of tWoW according to George, but that doesn't mean she's stuck in Vaes Dothrak for the whole book. It just means she'll be in Essos, somwhere. And her army doesn't have to wait for her either. But I suspect you're going by S6 of the show on this. Well you know what we have to say about the show, right?

And an armada still journeys faster than overland caravans. Supposedly this would even be an armady with a magician who's even more skilled than Mel. How fast did Stannis get from Dragonstone to Eastwatch again? Those people who will learn where she is still have to travel to Illyrio, unless he acquired himself a glass candle. Evidently he doesn't, or there wouldn't have been a lag on his knowledge of Viserys' death.

The news about Daenerys' whereabouts will reach Illyrio long before her armada moves west. 

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Her armies can move and act without her being there. That's why we have Selmy. He's making decisions in her absence.

Daenerys isn't bound by Selmy's decisions. She didn't make him her Hand.

10 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

They sure as hell will want to leave with the Pale Mare inside the city.

But they have no reason to go to Volantis. Why should they? Why should anyone? While they don't know that Dany is still alive they also have no reason to continue her crusade against slavery or try to conquer Westeros.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

The fleet is already on their way. They won't turn back again. So, after the Yunkai are done early on in tWoW, they'll face the Volantene fleet. Pointless plot otherwise. But there's no reason to believe they will kill all. They've got 3 major sellsword companies: Storm Crows, Windblow, Second Sons, an army of Unsullied, and an Ironborn fleet, and people without a home anymore because of the pale mare and thus willing to fight to the death, and two dragons. I very much doubt that the Volantene fleet will be anything worth against Ironborn.

Again, you don't seem to know the books all that well. Victarion is very afraid of the Volantene fleet because it greatly outnumbers his own ships. The Volantene fleet consists of hundreds of strong war galleys. The Iron Fleet and whatever meager ships the Ghiscari have are no match for them. That is why Victarion races to Meereen as quickly as he does. He wants to be there first to claim his price (Daenerys and the dragons) and then leave as quickly as he can. It is also the reason why the Yunkish allies want to conquer Meereen as quickly as they can after the deaths of Yurkhaz and Yezzan. They know the Volantenes are coming, and when they are there they will take all the spoils, sharing nothing with them.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Why the heck would the tiger soldiers rebel? You do know that the tigers are the most aggressive and always wish to go on war right? That it are the Elephants who usually wish to prefer diplomacy. You do know that the tigers won the election right?

Actually, no. The Elephants show stripes, the Tigers did not win. Malaquo Maegyr, the Tiger triarch, is likely to be reelected but the other two seem to be Elephants, as always since the Century of Blood. But we have to wait and see how the elections actually turned out.

The Elephants have no mind to use diplomacy with a person as mad and dangerous as Daenerys.

The reason why the tiger soldiers will rebel is that if they don't Dany's people will all be crucified. There is no chance that they defeat the army of Volantis. Those are professional soldiers. But we do know most are devout followers of R'hllor and the High Priest Benerro is preaching that Daenerys Targaryen is the reborn Azor Ahai. Now, if she was there by the time they come they might rebel. Perhaps they will also rebel if Moqorro is there (as he is) doing some stuff. But perhaps not. Perhaps our gang is going to be crushed by the Volantenes if Daenerys Targaryen is still considered to be dead or missing by the time the Volantenes arrive. We'll have to wait and see. Perhaps they will all be driven into the Dothraki Sea, running for their lives...

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

George made it so that Dany is NOT in Mereen and even her own people beleive she's dead. He had the dragons freed from their prison so they can follow and fly with Dany's people wherever they go. And he gave us 3 POVs in the same location at present, and not to twiddle their thumbs for the off chance she reappears months later out of the Dothraki Sea when they believe her dead, especially now that hundred bodies of pale male have been flung in every  part of the city (including the better areas).

The Pale Mare is not going to motivate anyone to go to Volantis.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They won't go east again to Qarth. They'll strike west in order to get to Pentos, and deliver it as promised, with or without Dany.

Dany's people won't go to Qarth. But Daenerys will. She will go to Vaes Dothrak and there she will decide what she does based on the information she has at that point. 

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And along the way east, Volantis is the first big city they'll hit. And without a fleet and without significant sellsword companies they'll be sitting ducks.

You seem to not know that Volantis' power is based on the standing army of slave soldiers they have. Volantis isn't dependent on sellsword companies.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And it's the likeliest place for Dany to catch up. Because news travels to Vaes Dothrak as do khalasars, so she'll find out that Volantis sent a fleet to Mereen, and that the Yunkai were defeated, and Mereen was abandoned because of the pale mare. Once Volantis falls, and no significant sellsword companies to be hired, Lys, Tyrosh and Myr will choose diplomacy, because they don't have an army of their own, and they'll swear off slave trade, just so their cities won't get sacked.

Dany herself might sent a khalasar to Volantis to crush it. She doesn't need the meager forces she has left in Slaver's Bay for that. If she has the Dothraki she will have hundreds of thousands of warriors.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Having everyone wait in Mereen for Dany does nothing. The only way for George to still have Dany go to Vaes Dothrak without neglecting or delaying the conquering and liberating would be by splitting it up. And he already showed he will let others handle Slaver's Bay while Dany is off in the Dothraki Sea by having Selmy lock up Hizdar, plan an attack against Yunkai outside the walls and agree to the Pentos deal. Oh, and you have Tyrion there who can tell Selmy that Aegon Targaryen sailed West with the Golden Company and is conquering Westeros. All it takes for Selmy to believe she died, to move west. It's time Dany's "children" to grow up.

Selmy is not a child. And Dany's people won't abandon her. They don't know she still lives and they will want to know whether she does. And if they know they will wait until she comes back. They might conquer and destroy her enemies in Slaver's Bay and, perhaps, if the Volantene slave soldiers join her they might decide to go there to free Volantis in her name. But if that happens it will only happen in the second half or very end of TWoW.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Sounds to me you're basing your fanfic and assertions that only Dany may do something in Essos on S6 of the show which was utterly pointless and well does it differently: no pale mare bodies flung over the walls, no ridiculous circus army on stilts and dragging chains, no Volantene fleet.

The show has nothing to do with that.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Stannis hires the remainder. A lot of the free companies are but small in numbers. The Bloody Mummers were a free company. They weren't hundreds in size though, let alone thousands. The largest are taken already. Sellsword companies also prefer most of all to be on the winning side. So, against bundled forces with a raider fleet who sacked Volantis, those 16 others will either say "let's join 'em" or "let's seek our fortune with Stannis. We're sure to be paid there, because the Iron Bank backs him."

That is fan fiction. And you are aware that 'twoscore' actually translates to forty not twenty, right? There is no indication that we already have seen the largest free companies aside from the Golden Company. In fact, the Yunkai'i never got as far as the Disputed Lands where most of them usually hang out. And neither will Stannis' people. They will go to Braavos which isn't exactly close to the Disputed Lands, either. The free companies in the Disputed Lands will fight, as they usually do, for Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr. Especially if they have a common enemy. As they will in Daenerys.

TWoIaF mentions the name of quite a few free companies we never heard of in the books as of yet. All or some of them might still show up. Especially the Company of the Rose and the Stormbreakers could be interesting.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Yes, but they can't run faster than ships sail and dragons fly. The only way some news can travel somewhat fast is along the Rhoyne, except it has to go upriver, which is slower than downriver. 

Sigh. You really don't seem to get it. If your idea had any merit you could just as well say Dany will kill Aegon before he learns that she lives and comes for him. Because she will just fly to Westeros on her dragon and roast him. But then there won't be a Second Dance.

56 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

It is related, because Varys didn't remain in the Red Keep. He went somewhere for months, and it wasn't the keep.

He was in the Red Keep, just as the little birds were. He hid beneath it in his real base of operations, the hidden well Arya saw him and Illyrio ascend from in AGoT. That is not that difficult to figure out.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I have better things to do than to look for stuff you can find on your own if you actual cared about new information.

Pfftt!! :rolleyes:

Same ol', same ol' from you. Constantly making arguments and claims that you can't back up. Do you think your're the only one that's busy, and has better things to do? 

Sorry, that's not how this works. It's on YOU to support your own argument. Why in Seven Hells should somebody you are debating look for the evidence to back YOUR argument? Everyone on this forum, who wants to be taken seriously, provides quotes and text to support their assertions. You think you're special, and there is an exception for you? We're all just supposed to do your leg work for you, or just take your word for it?

I don't think so my friend!!

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2 minutes ago, Darkstream said:

Pfftt!! :rolleyes:

Same ol', same ol' from you. Constantly making arguments and claims that you can't back up. Do you think your're the only one that's busy, and has better things to do? 

Sorry, that's not how this works. It's on YOU to support your own argument. Why in Seven Hells should somebody you are debating look for the evidence to back your argument? Everyone on this forum, who wants to be taken seriously, provides quotes and text to support their assertions. You think your're special, and there is an exception for you? We're all just supposed to do your leg work for you, or just take your word for it?

I don't think so my friend!!

I have a pretty good memory but I don't memorize URLs. 

Both topics were actually discussed to the death on those boards. If you want to be on the same page as another person you can search the internet, too, you know. It is not that hard.

But the reason why I don't felt obliged to do the work here for @sweetsunray is that she is very reluctant to acknowledge when she has made an oversight or a mistake. You can read that above when she uses my point that there were four and not three turnkeys Rugen poisoned without ever conceding the point that she only knows that because I told her before.

It was a test to find out whether she actually cared about learning something new about the series or whether she just wants to confirm, stick to, or defend her preconceived notions.

And the first link in the list is that one, the one about Varys' role in the murder of Tywin:

http://ew.com/article/2014/06/16/game-of-thrones-finale-martin/

The crucial thing here is that George has revealed there that he will go back to that scene and reveal more about, most likely when Tyrion and Varys meet again. Nobody else cares about Shae. But it is pretty clear from Tyrion's memory of Varys' reaction after he came down the ladder again that he knew Shae was up there and wasn't surprised at all that Tyrion killed both Tywin and Shae.

If Varys hadn't wanted that he would have reacted much differently. And he would have never told Tyrion how to get into Tywin's bedchamber in the first place. Tyrion is an unarmed dwarf. He is no threat to a man like Varys and his birds. The man killed both Pycelle and Kevan without much thought. Overpowering Tyrion or even Jaime should have been a very easy task. Varys and Illyrio both most likely killed dozens of people in their youth. Illyrio was a bravo, a profession that is essentially about killing, and Varys was a gutter rat who climbed to the highest of places. You don't do that if you don't know how to kill people quickly and efficiently, nor do you stay alive in that business if you don't actually do it when you have to.

The other thing is in the SSMs for everyone to search and see. If you want information you actually have to go look for it.

It is right here:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Interview_in_Barcelona/

This is actually an interview everybody interested in the matter should read.

Quote

 

Were Varys and Illyrio aware of the betrothal contract that Prince Doran and Ser Willem Darry had made? And why didn't Darry or someone tell Viserys about this agreement before his death?

To the first question: no. As to the second, Viserys was an immature child when it was decided, and he wasn't ready for the information.

 

 

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Jaime wouldn't have interviewed Longwaters first.

First, Jaime pretended to search beneath the keep immediately after the alert of Tywin's death.

He wasn't pretending. He did search for Tyrion and Varys. He did not want his father to die. And I'm pretty sure he would have avenged him had he found them. The fact that he didn't reveal his own involvement in Tyrion's escape is understandable.

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Meanwhile two of the sleeping guards are killed. Within hours Jaime would have had to search the undergoaler cells of the others, the ones that weren't killed, especially of the 3rd level witht he dark cells. One he would find empty, and he'll put 2 and 2 together. Only afterwards he would speak with Longwaters to go through the motions of inquiring after Rugen and pretending it's someone else than Varys.

That is just your fan fiction. If Jaime had never met Rugen in person he simply wouldn't know that the man was an alter ego of Varys. He could have been just his accomplice, as Cersei believes. Why should Jaime jump to the conclusion that Rugen is Varys if even Longwaters does not know?

And the fact that Jaime doesn't tell Cersei that Rugen is Varys despite the fact that he believes this is the case makes it very likely he did not figure this out simply because both Rugen and Vary were missing (then he could have told her) but he actually did know it for a fact because Varys told him in preparation for the Tyrion escape (assuming Jaime didn't know all along, back from time together at Aerys' court).

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On 7/6/2017 at 10:59 PM, Lord Varys said:

But the reason why I don't felt obliged to do the work here for @sweetsunray is that she is very reluctant to acknowledge when she has made an oversight or a mistake. You can read that above when she uses my point that there were four and not three turnkeys Rugen poisoned without ever conceding the point that she only knows that because I told her before.

It was a test to find out whether she actually cared about learning something new about the series or whether she just wants to confirm, stick to, or defend her preconceived notions.

That's childish and just more excuses to never back up your claims with a quote. It's always something with anybody asking you to back up your claims, the result is that you shift blame and responsibility and never do. If you have all the time to argue endlessly from your bias, you have the time to search for quotes.

You're correct I overlooked the turnkey Tyrion stumbled over + the 3 (of which one would be Rugen) mentioned by Jaime. So, what. 3/4 real or 2/3 real. I still think that Varys added one number to make it Rugen.

These ideas of mine are actually VERY recent. I hated Pentos sacking idea. I thought Varys and Illyrio were evil frauds for years. I thought that Varys wanted Tywin killed. I couldn't conceive why Dany's army would head for Volantis. But I basically skim-read Selmy and fast read Dany and most of the Essos stuff (I'm not a Tyrion fan), never having cared much for the whole arc. I never argued or debated it, let alone wrote essays about it, because I knew I wasn't as well read on that arc and that my assumptions were more impressions rather than actually coming from understanding.

But over the last month I read and reread the chapters and the tWoW chapters, and actually questioning my own notions before. I hoped to find more clues and hints for Illyrio making it to Westeros. Instead to my own initial annoyance I find more clues for his death. The Selmy chapters, especially after Dany leaves, all point to Dany's team gettign to stand on their own legs for a while and having to make their own decisions. And it's how George can deal with both Vaes Dothrak and the continued ending of slavery simultaneously. I barely took note of Selmy being told the Yunkai are throwing dead corpses over the Wall when I skim-read his chapters originally, but I did this time, after he decides to imprison Hizdar and agree to the Pentos deal, and then I read his chapter for tWoW at the square. 

I used to belive that Varys killed his little birds. Now I realize that the older and grown up birds are employed on Illyrio's ships, in his mansion, etc. They're not killed. They just don't work in crawl spaces anymore.

So, to hell with this assertion that I'm biased and can't change my mind. I'm defending actual new insights acquried the past month, where I questioned my own initial ideas to begin with. And yes, I might make mistakes, and I might have an oversight. And yes, I know a score is 20 since last Novbember, but I also forget at times (it being a rather recent term for me). But at times I simply skip such minor things, with my silence being my acknowledgement because it takes 3-4 hours to write a reply on what I do reply. That said, I'm done with this discussion, and my non reply to your answer is not to be confused with any acknowledgement. I haven't even read it. You have shown yourself to be of malicious and petty intent in debate - both in the refusal to give quotes, and both with this "test". Thank you for having totally make me regret for even spending  5 minutes in replying to you. I see I wasted several days in hours replying to you. I wil not make that mistake again.And what did I learn? That 3 is 4 and that I'm being tested. Great! I learned so much from the books through you... NOT.

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