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Agent 326

The Tyrell Conspiracy

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What are the Tyrells trying to do? What is their overall goal?

First off what do they want?

They want Margery to be queen.

They want to control the Small Council, (Mace the Ace as Hand, Randyll Tarly as Master of War, Paxter Redwyne as master of ships, any maester as Grand Maester, any septon as High Septon, Loras Tyrell as Lord Commander of the Kingsgaurd, Mathis Rowan as Master of Law, and Garth Tyrell as Master of Coin.)

They also want to win over the small folk.

And be wanted so they can get everything else, note how they have the biggest army, fleet and produce the most food in Westeros.

They also give Florent lands (and Brightwater Keep) to Garlan Tyrell meaning they likely don't trust the Florents after all they are the second most powerful house in the Reach and there are a lot more reasons not to trust them.

Also some other things that they have done.

Trying to get Sansa to wed Willas.

Probably lying to Cersei about Loras's fate at Dragonstone, (evidence includes, the description being inaccurate, and honestly how on Planetos would anyone be able to do anything after taking two arrows to was it the stomach and the chest? I forgot, and then taking hammer to the ribs, and who deep fries people when dealing with an attack?_

So what is the order of the King's they would've backed in TWOFK.

1. Renly, not betrothed, good friends with Loras (maybe a little more than that but still), would have the Stormlords and has no one locked into his small council yet and is willing to give people who help him titles.

2. Joffrey, he is betrothed to Sansa but it does him no good and he has some locks on the small council.

3. Robb, is betrothed to one of Walder Frey's daughters and that marriage would be meaningful.

4. Stannis, wed to one of Mace's vassals, but he is better than Balon.

5. Balon, wed to a Harlaw, and yeah is overall not someone to make an alliance with, maybe Margery marring Theon but still.

And funnily enough that is almost the order in which they where crowned, which was Joffrey, Renly, Robb, Stannis and Balon.

Overall they want to make Margery wed to a king and give the king children. They also want control over the Small Council.

Now one must ask why Agent 326 are you not including the Purple Wedding? Was the Purple Wedding Olenna's doing? First conspiring with Littlefinger who was praising Joffrey at Bitterbridge and was Joffrey's Master of Coin is a dumb move, he has every reason to turn you in. Why put Loras on the Kingsguard if you're afraid of him killing Joffrey? Margery was drinking from the chalice, meaning she could die to. Wouldn't one put the poison in Joffrey's pie? Also wait was the poison in Joffrey's wine? No it wasn't as the effects between Joffrey and Cressen's consumption of the Strangler don't match. Cressen fell over immediately and died. While Joffrey's throat was working just fine after drinking the wine and he managed to eat two pieces of not just anyone's pie, but Tyrion's pie (not this isn't the first time either that Littlefinger tried to kill Tyrion, first with blaming the assassian to kill Bran, then the Battle of Blackwater Bay, then the Purple Wedding and most recently with Penny, I'm not going to go into much detail as that is for Littlefinger and this is about the Tyrells.) Stay focused me. And also spewed a line and drank some more wine.

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2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Cressen fell over immediately and died

Actually, he didn't:

The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. “He does have power here, my lord,” the woman said. “And fire cleanses.” At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.

Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck. As he sank to his knees, still he shook his head, denying her, denying her power, denying her magic, denying her god. And the cowbells peeled in his antlers, singing fool, fool, fool while the red woman looked down on him in pity, the candle flames dancing in her red red eyes.

There is even a short moment when nothing happens while Melisandre speaks. Then Cressen starts to cough, then there is stridor, he sinks to his knees, choking, but not dead yet. So, not an instantaneous death.

 

Now Joff:

Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. “My lord,” Margaery said, “we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us.”
“My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice onehanded, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want. ..” His words broke up in a fit of coughing.
Margaery looked at him with concern. “Your Grace?”
“It’s, kof, the pie, noth - kof, pie.” Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. “I, kof, I can’t, kof kof kof kof...” The chalice slipped from his hand and dark red wine went running across the dais.
“He’s choking,” Queen Margaery gasped.
Her grandmother moved to her side. “Help the poor boy!” the Queen of Thorns screeched, in a voice ten times her size. “Dolts! Will you all stand about gaping? Help your king!”
Ser Garlan shoved Tyrion aside and began to pound Joffrey on the back. Ser Osmund Kettleblack ripped open the king’s collar. A fearful high thin sound emerged from the boy’s throat, the sound of a man trying to suck a river through a reed; then it stopped, and that was more terrible still.

Joff drinks, Margaery says one sentence, Joff says one sentence, stuffs his mouth with a pie and starts to cough. The cough becomes more pronounced, there is stridor, and then he is choking. The difference between the onset of the effect is seconds, not more than a minute, and it goes on exactly the same way as with Cressen. It is the same poison, distributed in exactly the same way, dilluted in wine which hides the colour. If you want to disregard this, you need the disregard the whole scene of Olenna and Margaery questioning Sansa about Joffrey and Sansa's later worries about Margaery which Margaery handwaves and Sansa cannot understand why. If you make Tyrion the target and LF the culprit, these scenes become a completely meaningless waste of paper. However, if you do take them into account, they actually solve one of your objections: Margaery was not in danger because she had been on it. Perhaps not on the details but she knew what Joffrey was, she knew she didn't have to worry... it follows she knew not to drink at some point. 

 

 

 

 

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The Florents are not the 2nd strongest house in the reach, that's either the Tyrells, Redwyns, or Hightowers depending exactly how your measuring.  The Florents are one of the weakest great houses of the Reach, the reason the Tyrells are so scared of them is because they have the best claim to Highgarden in terms of their blood relationship to house Gardener, and because Selyse Florent is married to Stannis, so they figure if he becomes King the Florents may wind up with Highgarden as the Tyrells originally supported Renly then Joffrey and fought Stannis at the Blackwater and back in Roberts rebellion they besieged Stannis for months until he was eating rats, they assumed he would never forgive them for that.

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6 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The Florents are not the 2nd strongest house in the reach, that's either the Tyrells, Redwyns, or Hightowers

The Tyrells don't count as they are the most powerful. Something I forgot to mention is that they for some reason are enemy's of Littlefinger. After all Littlefinger alienates the Florents making them go to Stannis. And let's face it Randyll Tarly has debt problems and now he has no one to turn to for help. Yes Tycho Nestoris was at Maidenpool, and you might say well is it Randyll's debts or Lord Mooton's but it matters not for which Dickon Tarly is wed to Lord Mooton's daughter. He also has gotten the Hightowers on the Florent's side (I forgot how, but I do recall seeing this in another theory, A Tyrell controls the Oldtown City Watch which was part of it but I don't remember the rest), thus causing a big civil war in the Reach. Also it isn't they are the most powerful that makes them dangerous, it's that they have so many friends (Randyll Tarly, Leyton Hightower) and they are so ambitious. Also who are the Redwyns, did you mean Redwynes?

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10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Actually, he didn't:

The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. “He does have power here, my lord,” the woman said. “And fire cleanses.” At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.

Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck. As he sank to his knees, still he shook his head, denying her, denying her power, denying her magic, denying her god. And the cowbells peeled in his antlers, singing fool, fool, fool while the red woman looked down on him in pity, the candle flames dancing in her red red eyes.

There is even a short moment when nothing happens while Melisandre speaks. Then Cressen starts to cough, then there is stridor, he sinks to his knees, choking, but not dead yet. So, not an instantaneous death.

 

Now Joff:

Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. “My lord,” Margaery said, “we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us.”
“My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.” Holding the chalice onehanded, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion’s pie. “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. “See, it’s good.” Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.” Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. “I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want. ..” His words broke up in a fit of coughing.
Margaery looked at him with concern. “Your Grace?”
“It’s, kof, the pie, noth - kof, pie.” Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. “I, kof, I can’t, kof kof kof kof...” The chalice slipped from his hand and dark red wine went running across the dais.
“He’s choking,” Queen Margaery gasped.
Her grandmother moved to her side. “Help the poor boy!” the Queen of Thorns screeched, in a voice ten times her size. “Dolts! Will you all stand about gaping? Help your king!”
Ser Garlan shoved Tyrion aside and began to pound Joffrey on the back. Ser Osmund Kettleblack ripped open the king’s collar. A fearful high thin sound emerged from the boy’s throat, the sound of a man trying to suck a river through a reed; then it stopped, and that was more terrible still.

Joff drinks, Margaery says one sentence, Joff says one sentence, stuffs his mouth with a pie and starts to cough. The cough becomes more pronounced, there is stridor, and then he is choking. The difference between the onset of the effect is seconds, not more than a minute, and it goes on exactly the same way as with Cressen. It is the same poison, distributed in exactly the same way, dilluted in wine which hides the colour. If you want to disregard this, you need the disregard the whole scene of Olenna and Margaery questioning Sansa about Joffrey and Sansa's later worries about Margaery which Margaery handwaves and Sansa cannot understand why. If you make Tyrion the target and LF the culprit, these scenes become a completely meaningless waste of paper. However, if you do take them into account, they actually solve one of your objections: Margaery was not in danger because she had been on it. Perhaps not on the details but she knew what Joffrey was, she knew she didn't have to worry... it follows she knew not to drink at some point. 

 

 

 

 

Still Joffrey was able to eat two pieces of pie and spew two lines, hear Margery speak a line, and drink some more wine. Also how would the poison enter Joffrey's wine? Why kill Joffrey who made you the Lord of Harrenal, and kept you as his Master of Coin. Cressen started feeling theeffects right away as the wine tastes sour and then he tries to reply but he can't. Also Joffrey's first cough came after he ate the pie. Also the plan made no sense, first since when does Olenna do her own killing, second wouldn't they want Sansa to go to Highgarden for her to marry Willas, third let's look at where the poison will go, it will go from Littlefinger to Dontos to Sansa's hair net to Olenna, supposedly so she doesn't have to fumble around in her pocket despite that being exactly what she would have to do because otherwise she has been holding deadly poison in her had while sees eating for a really long time. It's clear Loras being on the Kingsguard is somewhat to protect Margery but for the most part so they can get Loras as the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. Also what if the wind had been at Sansa's hair. It makes a little more sense like this, Littlefinger gives Dontos the poisoned hair net, to make sure Sansa wears said hair net. Then Littlefinger used the jousting dwarves to create conflict between Joffrey and Tyrion to distract Tyrion and everyone else, while Sansa is distracted by the fact that Ser Ilyn not using Ice and the server who gave Sansa and Tyrion their pie grabs one of the stones in Sansa's hair net and puts it on Tyrions pie and then covers it with the lemon cream. Wouldn't this make more sense than the story we are given, which has holes like what if Oberyn does beat the Mountain? What if Olenna can't get close enough? Why use the hair net to prevent Olenna from fumbling in her pockets if that is exactly what she will have to do? Overall there are so many holes in this story. And also it is worth remembering Littlefinger is the biggest liar of ASOIAF.

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29 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

Still Joffrey was able to eat two pieces of pie and spew a line, hear Margery speak a line, and drink some more wine. .... Cressen started feeling theeffects right away as the wine tastes sour and then he tries to reply but he can't.

I don't think it is statistically possible for two people to exhibit the effects of poisoning at exactly the same time - health condition, susceptibility to the substance, body mass, the dose, dillution... there is a number of factors that affect how quickly poisoning goes. In both cases, very quickly.

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Also how would the poison enter Joffrey's wine?

Someone dropped or tossed it in it? Nobody knows because nobody was watching the chalice. Garlan and his wife were seated close by - one Margaery's brother, the other part of a closely knit group of Tyrell females. Butterbumps, who we have seen serve as a coverup for Olenna's scheming, walks all around the hall. That's at least three people who had a chance to put the poison in the chalice while everyone was watching Joff and Marge cutting the pie. Olenna, who took the poison from Sansa's hairnet, is also present for some time, and if she cannot do the deed herself due to being too short, she can pass the crystal on to an accomplice. There might even be a subtle hint for Margaery not to drink any more when Olenna mentions Rains of Castamere, which is really nothing unusual at a Lannister wedding.

Also how would the poison enter the slice of pie (i.e., a piece of a big pie from which several other guests eat) given to Tyrion and escape detection when neither the pie nor the lemon cream are purple?

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Why kill Joffrey who made you the Lord of Harrenal, and kept you as his Master of Coin.

Does bear shit in the woods? Why kill Lysa who did everything for you, why kill Jon Arryn who gave you the post which allowed your rise to power, and blame it on the Lannisters? 

Really, are you under an impression that LF harbors any feelings like gratitude? LF didn't need Joffrey, the power he has accumulated is already bringing its own fruit. Besides, Tyrion was now Master of Coin, remember? And he was onto something (and Jon Arryn actually might have, as well). LF thrives in chaos because he is such a small, harmless man, nobody suspects him while everyone else is busy cutting their throats. And he even wasn't the one who killed Joffrey, he just manipulated the Tyrells into wanting to do it. And, what a coincidence - he was the one who arranged for a situation that was bound to result in a very public conflict between Joffrey and Tyrion, so once Cersei's paranoia turned very foreseeably against Tyrion, everyone in the hall had known that Tyrion hated Joffrey.

ETA: Add to it that LF arranged for Sansa to disappear just on the night when her disappearance would make Tyrion look even more guilty. LF didn't need to bother poisoning Tyrion, he would have been the fall guy, and even if he managed to escape Cersei's "justice", she would have had him assassinated.

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5 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Does bear shit in the woods? Why kill Lysa who did everything for you, why kill Jon Arryn who gave you the post which allowed your rise to power, and blame it on the Lannisters? 

Really, are you under an impression that LF harbors any feelings like gratitude? LF didn't need Joffrey, the power he has accumulated is already bringing its own fruit. Besides, Tyrion was now Master of Coin, remember? And he was onto something (and Jon Arryn actually might have, as well). LF thrives in chaos because he is such a small, harmless man, nobody suspects him while everyone else is busy cutting their throats. And he even wasn't the one who killed Joffrey, he just manipulated the Tyrells into wanting to do it. And, what a coincidence - he was the one who arranged for a situation that was bound to result in a very public conflict between Joffrey and Tyrion, so once Cersei's paranoia turned very foreseeably against Tyrion, everyone in the hall had known that Tyrion hated Joffrey.

ETA: Add to it that LF arranged for Sansa to disappear just on the night when her disappearance would make Tyrion look even more guilty. LF didn't need to bother poisoning Tyrion, he would have been the fall guy, and even if he managed to escape Cersei's "justice", she would have had him assassinated.

Littlefinger killed Jon Arryn to bring Ned into the fold in King's Landing. All this is to set up the coup at the end of AGOT. After all what else could he be doing it for. If it was to kill Ned, then why save him when Jaime attacked. If it was to start a war, why blame the catspaw on Tyrion the one man of importance in the king's party not in King's Landing, after he had urged Cat and Ned to throw the Dagger into the sea. Goal get Cat out so he can get Ned to catch onto the incest rumors of which he spread (seriously how on Planetos would Stannis, Loras, Maester Coleman, Maester Pycelle, Varys and Renly all get the same rumor unless it was spread by a man who loves to spread rumors and easily has the means to). Also Littlefinger needed to kill Lysa to allow him to bring war into the Vale, (aiding the Rosby, Crakehall and Waynewood Freys though that is a subject for another day), and he knew that the Lords Declarent would likely win. So he starts buying up their debt and plans on returning to King's Landing. The only problem is that Tywin dies and Cersei essianntly give the finger to all previously established regimes. Also Tyrion likely would've gotten as far away from Cersei as possible. Also Littlefinger has a plan (not just war and chaos) and it involves several things and the following are the steps that he takes.

Step 1: Get Lysa to be in love with you.

Step 2: Have her get you several positions to impress Jon Arryn.

Step 3: Get Master of Coin position and begin beggaring the realm.

Step 4: Start making the Gold Cloaks your cronies as well as men like Lothur Brune, The Kettleblacks, Dontos, Mandon Moore, Janos Slynt.

Step 5: Spread the incest rumors.

Step 6: Have Lysa kill Jon Arryn to get Ned to become Hand.

Step 7: Get the coup to happen so you get Harrenhal.

Step 8: Set up the riot in King's Landing that happened when returning to the Red Keep from Myrcella's trip to Dorne.

Step 9: Marry Lysa.

Step 10: Kill Lysa.

Step 11: Give the Vale Lords financial support or titles to win them over (Anya Waynewood, Nestor Royce, etc;)

This is all the while trying to kill Tyrion, get rid of anyone else who can pay for the crowns debts, (such as the Stokeworths, Rosbys, Tyrells) collecting wards (Tyrek Lannister, Sansa Stark, Harry Hardyng, Robert Arryn). The Purple Wedding was just an attempt to kill Tyrion.

Also it is worth remembering that the Tyrells want Margery to be queen, killing her husband before they can consumate the marriage is stupid.

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14 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

The Tyrells don't count as they are the most powerful. Something I forgot to mention is that they for some reason are enemy's of Littlefinger. After all Littlefinger alienates the Florents making them go to Stannis. And let's face it Randyll Tarly has debt problems and now he has no one to turn to for help. Yes Tycho Nestoris was at Maidenpool, and you might say well is it Randyll's debts or Lord Mooton's but it matters not for which Dickon Tarly is wed to Lord Mooton's daughter. He also has gotten the Hightowers on the Florent's side (I forgot how, but I do recall seeing this in another theory, A Tyrell controls the Oldtown City Watch which was part of it but I don't remember the rest), thus causing a big civil war in the Reach. Also it isn't they are the most powerful that makes them dangerous, it's that they have so many friends (Randyll Tarly, Leyton Hightower) and they are so ambitious. Also who are the Redwyns, did you mean Redwynes?

Littlefinger had no part in the Hightowers taking in Alekyne Florent. The Tyrells, Redwynes, Hightowers, Tarlys and Florents are all close relatives. Samwell and Shireen are first cousins, are you aware of that? Until you understand the relationships between the different families in the Reach I would refrain from making too many theories about who is siding with whom and why. When the Tyrells got the Lannisters to give Brightwater Keep to Garlan, they also bypassed Randyl Tarly's wife's superior claim. Like I said, study up on the relationships between all the families in the Reach before you sign on to any flaky theories about what is going on in the Reach. As has been said, the Florents are one of the weaker families in the Reach. That is one of the reasons they haven't the political power to push forward their "superior" claim to Highgarden.

Also, the poison was meant for Joffrey. Sansa is the one who slipped the poison into the wine. The chalice was closest to her when the poison was slipped in. There is no way Sansa didn't see who put the poison in the chalice. The fact she can't remember who did it indicates it was her who put it in.

 

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8 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Littlefinger killed Jon Arryn to bring Ned into the fold in King's Landing. All this is to set up the coup at the end of AGOT. After all what else could he be doing it for. If it was to kill Ned, then why save him when Jaime attacked. If it was to start a war, why blame the catspaw on Tyrion the one man of importance in the king's party not in King's Landing, after he had urged Cat and Ned to throw the Dagger into the sea. Goal get Cat out so he can get Ned to catch onto the incest rumors of which he spread (seriously how on Planetos would Stannis, Loras, Maester Coleman, Maester Pycelle, Varys and Renly all get the same rumor unless it was spread by a man who loves to spread rumors and easily has the means to). Also Littlefinger needed to kill Lysa to allow him to bring war into the Vale, (aiding the Rosby, Crakehall and Waynewood Freys though that is a subject for another day), and he knew that the Lords Declarent would likely win. So he starts buying up their debt and plans on returning to King's Landing. The only problem is that Tywin dies and Cersei essianntly give the finger to all previously established regimes. Also Tyrion likely would've gotten as far away from Cersei as possible. Also Littlefinger has a plan (not just war and chaos) and it involves several things and the following are the steps that he takes.

Oh, yes, LF definitely had a plan - destruction of House Stark and his own eventual rise to power. Through war and chaos, and in a way that would keep his own hands clean. If he didn't bring the Goldcloaks to help Ned, he would have to do lots of explaining to Robert (and BTW, why was Ned even out there? Because LF delayed his departure from KL to show him the brothel he had known about since the get-go.)

8 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

This is all the while trying to kill Tyrion, get rid of anyone else who can pay for the crowns debts, (such as the Stokeworths, Rosbys, Tyrells) collecting wards (Tyrek Lannister, Sansa Stark, Harry Hardyng, Robert Arryn). The Purple Wedding was just an attempt to kill Tyrion.

So disregarding the scenes with Sansa, Margaery and Olenna it is, and having Marge marry a psycho. Right.

Anyway, the logistics of poisoning Tyrion's pie, please?

 

8 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Also it is worth remembering that the Tyrells want Margery to be queen, killing her husband before they can consumate the marriage is stupid.

You have this explained right in the books - Margaery still gets to be queen with Tommen, only Tommen is younger and more gullible, and if the Lannisters don't turn out to be the winning side, the Tyrells have a way out. Way more convenient

23 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Also, the poison was meant for Joffrey. Sansa is the one who slipped the poison into the wine. The chalice was closest to her when the poison was slipped in. There is no way Sansa didn't see who put the poison in the chalice. The fact she can't remember who did it indicates it was her who put it in.

Now, that would be taking the unreliable narrator way too far. She doesn't figure out that there might be something wrong with the "magic" hairnet strikes her only ex post, so she doesn't remember figuring out, taking the crystal out and putting it in the wine - that's too much of a memory lapse for my liking.

Besides, she is named as a prime suspect, which means it wasn't her :P

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1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Oh, yes, LF definitely had a plan - destruction of House Stark and his own eventual rise to power. Through war and chaos, and in a way that would keep his own hands clean. If he didn't bring the Goldcloaks to help Ned, he would have to do lots of explaining to Robert (and BTW, why was Ned even out there? Because LF delayed his departure from KL to show him the brothel he had known about since the get-go.)

Yes Littlefinger does have a plan but its not all chaos and war.

 

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

So disregarding the scenes with Sansa, Margaery and Olenna it is, and having Marge marry a psycho. Right.

Anyway, the logistics of poisoning Tyrion's pie, please?

The server takes a stone from Sansa's hairnet who is distracted by Ser Ilyn's non use of Ice and puts it on Tyrions pie and then covers it with lemon cream to hide it. It was just poor luck that Tyrion never ate his pie. Also the plans for the Purple Wedding where being made in ACOK, if you all ready know Joffrey is a psycho than why ask Sansa about it?

 

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

You have this explained right in the books - Margaery still gets to be queen with Tommen, only Tommen is younger and more gullible, and if the Lannisters don't turn out to be the winning side, the Tyrells have a way out. Way more convenient

Yes and with his paranoid mom as regent who will likely put an end to the marriage before it can be consummated. Also how on Earth are the Lannisters not supposed to be the winning side (at least from there eyes)? They have the biggest army in Westeros, The Lannisters are the richest family while the Tyrells are second. They have allies like the Freys and Boltons. The North, The Westernlands, The Riverlands and The Stormlands are all mostly spent. At this point they don't know what will happen with the Ironborn, Aegon or Dany. And Stannis has gone to the Wall to freeze and die and get his host smashed by the Boltons with a few Freys to support him (yum, oh wait oh God no that is disgusting).

 

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Now, that would be taking the unreliable narrator way too far. She doesn't figure out that there might be something wrong with the "magic" hairnet strikes her only ex post, so she doesn't remember figuring out, taking the crystal out and putting it in the wine - that's too much of a memory lapse for my liking.

Besides, she is named as a prime suspect, which means it wasn't her :P

Your narrator is a song obsessed 13-year old girl. It doesn't get much more unreliable than that (the only more unreliable ones are Cat, Cersei and Aeron). Also I'm not saying that Sansa did it. No that was the server and Dontos and Littlefinger, with Oswell Kettleblack to row, row his little boat, merrily, merrily down the shit tons of debris left behind by the wildfire explosion with Sansa and Dontos.

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2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Now, that would be taking the unreliable narrator way too far. She doesn't figure out that there might be something wrong with the "magic" hairnet strikes her only ex post, so she doesn't remember figuring out, taking the crystal out and putting it in the wine - that's too much of a memory lapse for my liking.

Besides, she is named as a prime suspect, which means it wasn't her :P

You may not like it, but it is Sansa who put the poison in the chalice. When GRRM was asked who put the poison in the chalice, he didn't say keep reading. He said he had given all the clues needed to figure out who did it and those clues led to only one person. Because it has become so set in stone that "one of the Tyrells" did it, I re-read Sansa three times in a row to truly understand that Sansa is the poisoner and, yes, she is in deep denial. One of the clues that it was Sansa is that the chalice was between Sansa and Tyrion. One of them would have had to notice if someone stepped between them to put something in the chalice. Since we know for certain Tyrion didn't, then Sansa must have. Since Sansa claims she didn't see anyone, then she must be the person who put the poison in the chalice. Since there were 26 Pawn to Player threads and not one of those people noticed that Sansa was the poisoner, I don't think I'm going to convince most people Sansa did it (Although, I did really try at one point by giving two SSM's and 7 or 8 quotes from the text). I just hope people aren't too furious once GRRM reveals it was Sansa. If the reveal goes like the Aegon reveal, then there will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth.

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56 minutes ago, bent branch said:

You may not like it, but it is Sansa who put the poison in the chalice. When GRRM was asked who put the poison in the chalice, he didn't say keep reading. He said he had given all the clues needed to figure out who did it and those clues led to only one person. Because it has become so set in stone that "one of the Tyrells" did it, I re-read Sansa three times in a row to truly understand that Sansa is the poisoner and, yes, she is in deep denial. One of the clues that it was Sansa is that the chalice was between Sansa and Tyrion. One of them would have had to notice if someone stepped between them to put something in the chalice. Since we know for certain Tyrion didn't, then Sansa must have. Since Sansa claims she didn't see anyone, then she must be the person who put the poison in the chalice. Since there were 26 Pawn to Player threads and not one of those people noticed that Sansa was the poisoner, I don't think I'm going to convince most people Sansa did it (Although, I did really try at one point by giving two SSM's and 7 or 8 quotes from the text). I just hope people aren't too furious once GRRM reveals it was Sansa. If the reveal goes like the Aegon reveal, then there will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth.

I can't tell if your being serious or not.  How would Sansa even know what was in the hair net?  Are you saying she is also blocking out Dontos telling her about it?  And if so why the hell did LF explain to her a false plan?

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2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Yes Littlefinger does have a plan but its not all chaos and war.

This is perhaps misunderstandin: I never claimed that he sowed chaos for the sake of chaos itself; rather that chaos is means for him to elevate his own status.

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

The server takes a stone from Sansa's hairnet who is distracted by Ser Ilyn's non use of Ice and puts it on Tyrions pie and then covers it with lemon cream to hide it. It was just poor luck that Tyrion never ate his pie. Also the plans for the Purple Wedding where being made in ACOK, if you all ready know Joffrey is a psycho than why ask Sansa about it?

Nonsense. Here's the whole passage:

Ser Ilyn bowed before the king and queen, reached back over his shoulder, and drew forth six feet of ornate silver bright with runes. He knelt to offer the huge blade to Joffrey, hilt first; points of red fire winked from ruby eyes on the pommel, a chunk of dragonglass carved in the shape of a grinning skull.
Sansa stirred in her seat. “What sword is that?”
Tyrion’s eyes still stung from the wine. He blinked and looked again. Ser Ilyn’s greatsword was as long and wide as Ice, but it was too silverybright; Valyrian steel had a darkness to it, a smokiness in its soul. Sansa clutched his arm. “What has Ser Ilyn done with my father’s sword?”
I should have sent Ice back to Robb Stark, Tyrion thought. He glanced at his father, but Lord Tywin was watching the king.
Joffrey and Margaery joined hands to lift the greatsword and swung it down together in a silvery arc. When the piecrust broke, the doves burst forth in a swirl of white feathers, scattering in every direction, flapping for the windows and the rafters. A roar of delight went up from the benches, and the fiddlers and pipers in the gallery began to play a sprightly tune. Joff took his bride in his arms, and whirled her around merrily.
A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream. The pigeons were well and truly cooked in this pie, but he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either. “You’re deathly pale, my lady,” Tyrion said. “You need a breath of cool air, and I need a fresh doublet.” He stood and offered her his hand.

Sansa is clearly stressed out here but nothing suggests that she is so distracted that she wouldn't notice someone - a servant! - pawing her hair. Furthermore, there are other nobles around, and if anyone else noticed, the guy would be in a huge deal of trouble (and thus potentially leading to LF, which is not something he would want to happen). Curiously, we do know of another person who would be totally inconspicuous handling Sansa's hair.

As for "hiding" the crystal with the lemon cream: ever eaten anything with blueberries? Or even better, handled a crystal of hypermanganium? There's no way you can "hide" these with cream which is not purple.

 

 

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Yes and with his paranoid mom as regent who will likely put an end to the marriage before it can be consummated.

As long as she needs the Tyrells (and she does, because it's not like the Lannisters win the Westerosi popularity contests), she cannot break the marriage, and the attempt at discrediting Marge has worked oh-so-well for her.

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Also how on Earth are the Lannisters not supposed to be the winning side (at least from there eyes)?

It's not the Lannister eyes but Tyrell eyes we are talking about here, and if not for the Tyrell involvement, things would have gone very dire for at least certain Lannisters in KL.

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

They have the biggest army in Westeros, The Lannisters are the richest family while the Tyrells are second. They have allies like the Freys and Boltons. The North, The Westernlands, The Riverlands and The Stormlands are all mostly spent.

You might be in for quite some surprise then.

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

At this point they don't know what will happen with the Ironborn, Aegon or Dany. And Stannis has gone to the Wall to freeze and die and get his host smashed by the Boltons with a few Freys to support him (yum, oh wait oh God no that is disgusting).

Really?

2 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

Your narrator is a song obsessed 13-year old girl. It doesn't get much more unreliable than that (the only more unreliable ones are Cat, Cersei and Aeron).

I guess we probably define "unreliable narrator" by different standards. When does Cat report about things that didn't happen? And the only time Sansa has some memory issues, or perhaps just wishful thinking, is the un-kiss.

43 minutes ago, bent branch said:

You may not like it, but it is Sansa who put the poison in the chalice. When GRRM was asked who put the poison in the chalice, he didn't say keep reading. He said he had given all the clues needed to figure out who did it and those clues led to only one person. Because it has become so set in stone that "one of the Tyrells" did it, I re-read Sansa three times in a row to truly understand that Sansa is the poisoner and, yes, she is in deep denial. One of the clues that it was Sansa is that the chalice was between Sansa and Tyrion. One of them would have had to notice if someone stepped between them to put something in the chalice. Since we know for certain Tyrion didn't, then Sansa must have. Since Sansa claims she didn't see anyone, then she must be the person who put the poison in the chalice. Since there were 26 Pawn to Player threads and not one of those people noticed that Sansa was the poisoner, I don't think I'm going to convince most people Sansa did it (Although, I did really try at one point by giving two SSM's and 7 or 8 quotes from the text). I just hope people aren't too furious once GRRM reveals it was Sansa. If the reveal goes like the Aegon reveal, then there will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth.

IIRC, the question was "who poisoned Joffrey", not "who put the poison in the chalice". 

The chalice is three feet tall and was placed at some distance from the edge of the table (Tyrion has to climb on his chair to reach it). I'm not sure if a seated Sansa could reach it without leaning towards it and not be noticed. It is not mentioned if Garlan and Leonette stood up during the cutting of the pie. Olenna is very short, so she should have a problem to reach it even when standing. The person to whom, IMHO, most clues point is Butterbumps, sleight of hand and skilled at manipulating small objects.

But, could you entertain me and link that case you made? I'd like to take a look for myself.

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The different "affects" of the poison can be attributed to the size of the chalice.  With Cressen, it was a normal size glass, but the Chalice was supposedly very large and therefore the poison would have been diluted to the point where it may not have taken as quickly to work.

 

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I love how everyone deconstructs this scene as if you need to be a forensic scientist to read a piece of literature. It's pretty open-and-close, especially given that we get a whole paragraph about Olenna yanking on the hairnet. Martin is kinda deliberate. Oh sorry, Sansa's clearly the poisoner and loves lying to herself in her own brain for fun. This checks out.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

The chalice is three feet tall and was placed at some distance from the edge of the table (Tyrion has to climb on his chair to reach it). I'm not sure if a seated Sansa could reach it without leaning towards it and not be noticed. It is not mentioned if Garlan and Leonette stood up during the cutting of the pie. Olenna is very short, so she should have a problem to reach it even when standing. The person to whom, IMHO, most clues point is Butterbumps, sleight of hand and skilled at manipulating small objects.

I actually never considered Bumps before this minute (I'm a fan of Team Leonette). He would have been at the Tyrell ladies' breakfast that morning, right? This is pure speculation but I like the idea that details where planned then. 

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7 hours ago, Agent 326 said:

snip

The poison was most definitely not in the wine, so the only other possible solution was the pie.

There is a huge time discrepancy between Cressen and Joffrey. Remember, we cannot compare the time from ingestion to death because we don't know how long it took for Cressen to die. The two measurable points are the moment the poison enters the throat and the moment "the words caught in his throat." In Cressen's case, this takes about five seconds -- long enough for Mel to get her one sentence out. In Joffrey's case, not only does he spend time chugging down multiple gulps of wine, encompassing Margaery's entire line about Lord Buckley, but then the whole sequence of Joffrey's first bite of pie, taunting of Tyrion, slight cough, second bite of pie, more taunting... Then, Joffrey drinks from the chalice, washing the pie down his throat. This is when the strangler first hits Joffrey's throat, and it is approximately five seconds after that when, just like Cressen, "the words caught in his throat."

There is also no evidence that Cressen's wine was more concentrated than Joffrey's. If anything, Joffrey's "deep purple" wine is the more concentrated because Cressen does not notice anything unusual about the color and/or consistency of his last half-swallow. And since Cressen succumbed five or six times faster than Joffrey, and Joffrey's wine was so concentrated that it turned deep purple, than Cressen's wine should have appeared almost black. Even if you think he wouldn't notice this, it all but rules out the notion that this poison can be effectively delivered in wine since it can be so easily noticed. So not only is Joffrey drinking more highly concentrated poison, he is drinking massive more quantity. And in any event, high potency of a contact poison like the strangler would not speed up the affect on the body, it would only increase the severity.

We can also rule out the chalice because there is absolutely no way anyone could predict that Joffrey would place it in exactly the right spot at exactly the right time for Garlan, the only possible poisoner, to do the deed. And since the plan also requires Tyrion to be accused (because without that, Sansa is of no value), he also has to know that Tyrion would be named cup-bearer and have his hands all over the chalice just before Joffrey drops -- and this is simply impossible to predict.

How did Lady O get the poison into the pie? We know from the text that the pie was served immediately after the cutting -- literally, within seconds. So it had to have already been cut and plated and located directly behind the head table during the ceremony, which is also Lady O's last known position. So either the server is holding it the whole time, or it is on a table somewhere out of site, perhaps behind a tapestry. Either way, it is well within reach of a short person like Lady O, and at best she needs to be sure that only one person is distracted by the pigeons -- unlike the chalice, which requires an outstretched arm to reach the rim and is in plain site of literally hundreds of people

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3 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

<snip>

Oh my god with this pet theory again. I know we've explained it to you, but the plan wasn't to have Tyrion framed; it was to claim Joffrey choked. The main focus wasn't about Sansa, but protecting Margaery from a situation in which she'd be hurt. Sansa would have been a nice side-benefit, sure, but she was actually there with that damn hairnet to be the Tyrells scapegoat if the choking excuse didn't pan. It's not a wild thought that "hey we're going to poison the cup we know Joff will drink out of, and because we're the fucking Tyrells who are standing right there, we'll probably be in a position to do so at some point" without having perfect cup logistics planned.

I'll admit there's elements of how it played out that are a bit Batman's Gambit-ish, what with Littlefinger trying to incite a fight between Tyrion and Joffrey, knowing how explosive that dynamic could be and how helpful it would personally be to him getting Sansa to safety, but I have to think it just worked far far better than he could have expected (basically got rid of her husband without him doing anything). 

Olenna had no way of knowing Joffrey would eat Tyrion's pie. If Tyrion was the target, surely they would have picked a more opportune time to poison him than a well-attended wedding, as has also been explained to you ad nauseam. Most importantly, this does absolutely nothing on a thematic or character level. It's just pedantry at this point, seriously.

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4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

This is perhaps misunderstandin: I never claimed that he sowed chaos for the sake of chaos itself; rather that chaos is means for him to elevate his own status.

Nonsense. Here's the whole passage:

Ser Ilyn bowed before the king and queen, reached back over his shoulder, and drew forth six feet of ornate silver bright with runes. He knelt to offer the huge blade to Joffrey, hilt first; points of red fire winked from ruby eyes on the pommel, a chunk of dragonglass carved in the shape of a grinning skull.
Sansa stirred in her seat. “What sword is that?”
Tyrion’s eyes still stung from the wine. He blinked and looked again. Ser Ilyn’s greatsword was as long and wide as Ice, but it was too silverybright; Valyrian steel had a darkness to it, a smokiness in its soul. Sansa clutched his arm. “What has Ser Ilyn done with my father’s sword?”
I should have sent Ice back to Robb Stark, Tyrion thought. He glanced at his father, but Lord Tywin was watching the king.
Joffrey and Margaery joined hands to lift the greatsword and swung it down together in a silvery arc. When the piecrust broke, the doves burst forth in a swirl of white feathers, scattering in every direction, flapping for the windows and the rafters. A roar of delight went up from the benches, and the fiddlers and pipers in the gallery began to play a sprightly tune. Joff took his bride in his arms, and whirled her around merrily.
A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream. The pigeons were well and truly cooked in this pie, but he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either. “You’re deathly pale, my lady,” Tyrion said. “You need a breath of cool air, and I need a fresh doublet.” He stood and offered her his hand.

Sansa is clearly stressed out here but nothing suggests that she is so distracted that she wouldn't notice someone - a servant! - pawing her hair. Furthermore, there are other nobles around, and if anyone else noticed, the guy would be in a huge deal of trouble (and thus potentially leading to LF, which is not something he would want to happen). Curiously, we do know of another person who would be totally inconspicuous handling Sansa's hair.

As for "hiding" the crystal with the lemon cream: ever eaten anything with blueberries? Or even better, handled a crystal of hypermanganium? There's no way you can "hide" these with cream which is not purple.

 

 

As long as she needs the Tyrells (and she does, because it's not like the Lannisters win the Westerosi popularity contests), she cannot break the marriage, and the attempt at discrediting Marge has worked oh-so-well for her.

It's not the Lannister eyes but Tyrell eyes we are talking about here, and if not for the Tyrell involvement, things would have gone very dire for at least certain Lannisters in KL.

You might be in for quite some surprise then.

Really?

I guess we probably define "unreliable narrator" by different standards. When does Cat report about things that didn't happen? And the only time Sansa has some memory issues, or perhaps just wishful thinking, is the un-kiss.

IIRC, the question was "who poisoned Joffrey", not "who put the poison in the chalice". 

The chalice is three feet tall and was placed at some distance from the edge of the table (Tyrion has to climb on his chair to reach it). I'm not sure if a seated Sansa could reach it without leaning towards it and not be noticed. It is not mentioned if Garlan and Leonette stood up during the cutting of the pie. Olenna is very short, so she should have a problem to reach it even when standing. The person to whom, IMHO, most clues point is Butterbumps, sleight of hand and skilled at manipulating small objects.

But, could you entertain me and link that case you made? I'd like to take a look for myself.

I was talking about things from Cersei's eyes. She sees that that they have one, I am well aware that Stannis will probably win the Battle of Ice. And yes the bit about the Freys was disgusting (Frey Pies, google it, it won't take much).

Cat is a lunatic that's what makes her an unreliable narrator. 

 I don't often agree with their theorys as most of them are just random concepts with little to know evidence. However I can't argue with them on this series. There is five parts to it but meh it's not too much of your life.

Keep in mind that during the Purple Wedding everyone is watching the pie, Tyrion and Joffrey and no one is paying attention to Sansa who is probably at the end of the table. Also I would expect that the stone may simply have been lose and was on the table or it wouldn't take any effort to take out.

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47 minutes ago, Chebyshov said:

I actually never considered Bumps before this minute (I'm a fan of Team Leonette). He would have been at the Tyrell ladies' breakfast that morning, right? This is pure speculation but I like the idea that details where planned then. 

Well, I'm on the fences here: Garlan the kind and perfect knight, could he have done something so deceitful? Sweet Leonette, could there be a Ladies' conspiracy she was a part of? I'm currently leaning more towards Bumps, due to his skilled manipulation of small object: if anyone could toss the crystal in the chalice without being noticed, it was him.

10 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

I was talking about things from Cersei's eyes. She sees that that they have one, I am well aware that Stannis will probably win the Battle of Ice. And yes the bit about the Freys was disgusting (Frey Pies, google it, it won't take much).

And I was talking about why the Tyrells might want to leave some options open should the Lannisters lose, so that's why

10 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

Cat is a lunatic that's what makes her an unreliable narrator. 

 I don't often agree with their theorys as most of them are just random concepts with little to know evidence. However I can't argue with them on this series. There is five parts to it but meh it's not too much of your life.

"LIttle to no evidence" is a correct assessment and I have no reason to believe that this one is any different. It may fit with your personal preferences but it definitely doesn't do justice to GRRM's writing of Cat. She makes mistakes like everyone else but she is neither stupid nor lunatic, and most of her actions which don't concern Jon Snow or lives of her children in imminent danger are pretty sound.

10 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

Keep in mind that during the Purple Wedding everyone is watching the pie, Tyrion and Joffrey

Which is why your scenario of poisoning the pie doesn't make sense - at the time when the pie is being served, the first round of Joffrey-Tyrion conflict is done, the cutting of the huge wedding pie is finished, and people are just being served food and starting to eat. That's really not the best moment to poison the portion that is on the table right before the supposedly intended victim. By the time the next round of conflict starts, it is clear that Tyrion is not about to eat the cake, so no use poisoning it then.

BTW, you haven't answered my question: ever eaten blueberries in cream, noticed what the juice does to the cream? Ever tried dissolving hypermanganium in a liquid?

 

10 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

and no one is paying attention to Sansa who is probably at the end of the table.

She is not, or else Tyrion would have mentioned that they were seated at the very end of the table, which would have been a huge insult. Since he does mention that they are seated farther away from the centre of the table than appropriate, he wouldn't fail to mention such an outrage.

10 minutes ago, Agent 326 said:

Also I would expect that the stone may simply have been lose and was on the table or it wouldn't take any effort to take out.

You might want to look up what a hairnet looks like. The stones couldn't have been particularly lose, or else they would start falling out as the hairnet was being handled, and then Sansa wouldn't wear it because, come on! a damaged accessory to the king's wedding? What a display of poor taste, and what a risk if it was noticed.

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1 minute ago, Ygrain said:

"LIttle to no evidence" is a correct assessment and I have no reason to believe that this one is any different. It may fit with your personal preferences but it definitely doesn't do justice to GRRM's writing of Cat. She makes mistakes like everyone else but she is neither stupid nor lunatic, and most of her actions which don't concern Jon Snow or lives of her children in imminent danger are pretty sound.

Sorry for the wrong no, also you have a typo to. Also watch the rest of the videos in the series, that is establishing that Catelyn has done some bad actions.

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