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Black Crow

Heresy 203 and growing suspicions anent the Starks

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32 minutes ago, LynnS said:

LOL!  The matter of the number of points on a star comes to mind.  However, is it laziness that Cotter and Rattleshirt also have the same temperment?

Possibly, but as Rattleshirt is now the late and unlamented Rattleshirt its pretty moot

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

A lost Blackfyre makes sense, because otherwise the question ciu bono comes up with a blank.

When we step back and look at what's happening in real time, the Lannisters have the throne, but its an uncertain hold because their claim rests on the assumption that Joffery and Tommen were the lawful sons of Robert Baratheon, whose own claim rested on his forcibly seizing the throne from the last crowned Targaryen king.

The threats all revolve around a whole string of Targaryen claimants, in no particular order:

Viserys Targaryen - once supported by Dorne, but he has died

Danaerys Targaryen - offered an alliance with Dorne but the suitor got fried

Jon Snow - claimed by some as Rhaegar Targaryen's son, but as a Stark likely to completely screw the game of thrones

Young Griff - claimed to be Aegon and supported by an army formerly in Blackfyre service

Anybody else?

Well... Mance Blackfyre would fit into this chaos pretty well, Mance Qorgyle is nobody

 

The ultimate threat isn't the game of iron thrones, and who is the "rightful" claimant to the Iron Throne, the ultimate threat is the darkness and conflict that exists within the human heart.

So George needs to create a motivation for Mance and for his actions.  And he creates one by creating a Lord Commander Qorgyle in ASOS.  (after all what is the need for even having a lord commander that exists this recently before Mormont?)

So Qorgyle is first mentioned in the ASOS chapter where Jon meets Mance.

Quote

“The king laughed. “Your Mance! Why not? I promised you a tale before, of how I knew you. Have you puzzled it out yet?”

Jon shook his head. “Did Rattleshirt send word ahead?”

“By wing? We have no trained ravens. No, I knew your face. I’ve seen it before. Twice.”

It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. “When you were a brother of the Watch …”

“Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell. I was walking the wall around the yard when I came on you and your brother Robb. It had snowed the night before, and the two of you had built a great mountain above the gate and were waiting for someone likely to pass underneath.”

“I remember,” said Jon with a startled laugh. A young black brother on the wallwalk, yes … “You swore not to tell.”

“And kept my vow. That one, at least.”

Then we learn of the tipping point for Mance deciding to leave the Night's Watch:

Quote

“The black wool cloak of a Sworn Brother of the Night’s Watch,” said the King-beyond-the-Wall. “One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow-cat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?” ...

“And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me.”  

“He swept the cloak back over his shoulders. “But at the Shadow Tower, I was given a new wool cloak from stores, black and black, and trimmed with black, to go with my black breeches and black boots, my black doublet and black mail. The new cloak had no frays nor rips nor tears … and most of all, no red. The men of the Night’s Watch dressed in black, Ser Denys Mallister reminded me sternly, as if I had forgotten.”

“I left the next morning … for a place where a kiss was not a crime, and a man could wear any cloak he chose.” He closed the clasp and sat back down again.”

Then conveniently enough, we learn of the sigil of House Qorgyle as Tyrion has Pod name the Houses based on Bronn's description of their sigils:

Quote

"Three black spiders?"

"They're scorpions, ser.  House Qorgyle of Sandstone, three scorpions black on red."

We later learn through House Blackfyre and Bastard Walder that a royal bastard might adopt a sigil, the reverse of his father's.  

Now go back to Mance's meeting with Jon and see what Jon said that convinced Mance to take him in:

Quote

Jon took another swallow of mead. There is only one tale that he might believe. “You say you were at Winterfell, the night my father feasted King Robert.”

“I did say it, for I was.”

“Then you saw us all. Prince Joffrey and Prince Tommen, Princess Myrcella, my brothers Robb and Bran and Rickon, my sisters Arya and Sansa. You saw them walk the center aisle with every eye upon them and take their seats at the table just below the dais where the king and queen were seated.”

“I remember.”

“And did you see where I was seated, Mance?” He leaned forward. “Did you see where they put the bastard?”

Mance Rayder looked at Jon’s face for a long moment. “I think we had best find you a new cloak,” the king said, holding out his hand.

So perhaps Mance is brought into the Night's Watch mainly because he is Lord Commander Qorgyle's bastard.  If so, it has to be kept a closely held secret because a kiss is a crime.

Quote

“I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children.”

Yet the Lord Commander does father a child.  And perhaps consciously or not he brings his son with him when he meets Lord Eddard and Eddard's sons.  And Mance sees first hand how the sons, even the royal bastards are treated in the "south".  My guess is that if Mance became aware of his relationship to the Lord Commander, then Mance starts to feel special.  He's not one of the brothers any more, he's the Lord Commander's son.  And when his cloak is torn and repaired, basically becoming an inverse sigil of his father's former house, his cloak starts to reflect how he sees himself.  But unfortunately for Mance, not only is being the Lord Commander's son not entitle him to anything in the Night's watch, it is also a dark secret out of necessity, because the Lord Commander is not supposed to father any sons.  

So Mance can sympathize with Jon at this moment.  Jon is Eddard's son, he knows he's special, but on the other hand his bastard birth casts him out of the head table.

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46 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The ultimate threat isn't the game of iron thrones, and who is the "rightful" claimant to the Iron Throne, the ultimate threat is the darkness and conflict that exists within the human heart.

So George needs to create a motivation for Mance and for his actions.  And he creates one by creating a Lord Commander Qorgyle in ASOS.  (after all what is the need for even having a lord commander that exists this recently before Mormont?)

So Qorgyle is first mentioned in the ASOS chapter where Jon meets Mance.

Then we learn of the tipping point for Mance deciding to leave the Night's Watch:

Then conveniently enough, we learn of the sigil of House Qorgyle as Tyrion has Pod name the Houses based on Bronn's description of their sigils:

We later learn through House Blackfyre and Bastard Walder that a royal bastard might adopt a sigil, the reverse of his father's.  

Now go back to Mance's meeting with Jon and see what Jon said that convinced Mance to take him in:

So perhaps Mance is brought into the Night's Watch mainly because he is Lord Commander Qorgyle's bastard.  If so, it has to be kept a closely held secret because a kiss is a crime.

Yet the Lord Commander does father a child.  And perhaps consciously or not he brings his son with him when he meets Lord Eddard and Eddard's sons.  And Mance sees first hand how the sons, even the royal bastards are treated in the "south".  My guess is that if Mance became aware of his relationship to the Lord Commander, then Mance starts to feel special.  He's not one of the brothers any more, he's the Lord Commander's son.  And when his cloak is torn and repaired, basically becoming an inverse sigil of his father's former house, his cloak starts to reflect how he sees himself.  But unfortunately for Mance, not only is being the Lord Commander's son not entitle him to anything in the Night's watch, it is also a dark secret out of necessity, because the Lord Commander is not supposed to father any sons.  

So Mance can sympathize with Jon at this moment.  Jon is Eddard's son, he knows he's special, but on the other hand his bastard birth casts him out of the head table.

That's very persuasive.  Mance's birth is the lowest it can get, even for a bastard.

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Did Mance visit Winterfell the same year that Qorgyle died in 288?  Rob and Jon would have been around 5 years old at the time.  I can't see him going any earlier.

Waymar is a boy no longer:

Quote

He lifted his sword high over his head, defiant. His hands trembled from the weight of it, or perhaps from the cold. Yet in that moment, Will thought, he was a boy no longer, but a man of the Night's Watch.

Waymar is 18 or 19 when he died.  Is this the age when someone becomes a young crow or young man of the Watch?  Is Mance closer to Ned Stark in age? Thirty-something? 

Edited by LynnS

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On 1/14/2018 at 5:07 PM, Frey family reunion said:

The ultimate threat isn't the game of iron thrones, and who is the "rightful" claimant to the Iron Throne, the ultimate threat is the darkness and conflict that exists within the human heart.

So George needs to create a motivation for Mance and for his actions.  And he creates one by creating a Lord Commander Qorgyle in ASOS.  (after all what is the need for even having a lord commander that exists this recently before Mormont?)

So Qorgyle is first mentioned in the ASOS chapter where Jon meets Mance.

Then we learn of the tipping point for Mance deciding to leave the Night's Watch:

Then conveniently enough, we learn of the sigil of House Qorgyle as Tyrion has Pod name the Houses based on Bronn's description of their sigils:

We later learn through House Blackfyre and Bastard Walder that a royal bastard might adopt a sigil, the reverse of his father's.  

Now go back to Mance's meeting with Jon and see what Jon said that convinced Mance to take him in:

So perhaps Mance is brought into the Night's Watch mainly because he is Lord Commander Qorgyle's bastard.  If so, it has to be kept a closely held secret because a kiss is a crime.

Yet the Lord Commander does father a child.  And perhaps consciously or not he brings his son with him when he meets Lord Eddard and Eddard's sons.  And Mance sees first hand how the sons, even the royal bastards are treated in the "south".  My guess is that if Mance became aware of his relationship to the Lord Commander, then Mance starts to feel special.  He's not one of the brothers any more, he's the Lord Commander's son.  And when his cloak is torn and repaired, basically becoming an inverse sigil of his father's former house, his cloak starts to reflect how he sees himself.  But unfortunately for Mance, not only is being the Lord Commander's son not entitle him to anything in the Night's watch, it is also a dark secret out of necessity, because the Lord Commander is not supposed to father any sons.  

So Mance can sympathize with Jon at this moment.  Jon is Eddard's son, he knows he's special, but on the other hand his bastard birth casts him out of the head table.

Its a reasonable hypothesis and I can recall a story of one of the Lord Commanders in days gone by trying to pass the job to his son. 

However nothing in this story is what it seems and I still feel that Mance is aiming for something higher; he wants to get into the Winterfell crypts, so what is he looking for? I'm still wondering if that old horn which may have been stolen by Benjen Stark is the answer - whatever its true purpose/function

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Its a reasonable hypothesis and I can recall a story of one of the Lord Commanders in days gone by trying to pass the job to his son. 

However nothing in this story is what it seems and I still feel that Mance is aiming for something higher; he wants to get into the Winterfell crypts, so what is he looking for? I'm still wondering if that old horn which may have been stolen by Benjen Stark is the answer - whatever its true purpose/function

     Mance's end game is the million dollar (dragon?) question, isn't it?  When we first meet him, we learn that he's gathered together all of the wildling from the various villages together, into a large massive immigration wave.  He convinces them that they all have to get south of the Wall to avoid the Others.  He then sets up camp at the foot of the Frostfangs, where he believes that digging around in the graves of ancient Kings, he will find the Horn of Joramun.  The Horn of Joramun being the secret weapon that will breach the Wall and allow the wildlings community to get south of the Wall.  Instead of finding the Horn of Joramun, he finds Jon Snow, who coincidentally  enough later allows all of the wildlings to "breach" the Wall and enter the south.

Now he's turned his attention to more graves of kings in the Winterfell's crypts.  Which could very well put him in contact with the grave of Jon Snow's mother (perhaps also his father, if Brandon is indeed Jon's father like I suspect).  Once again, assuming Jon gets to feeling better, or gets resurrected, he may once again come into contact with Jon Snow at Winterfell, thanks to the author of the pink letter (which very well may have been Mance himself).  Part of me wonders if Mance is being spurred on by dreams or prophecies (whether his own or others) and all roads lead back to Jon Snow.

 

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Mance's end game is the million dollar (dragon?) question, isn't it?

Maybe it's not really about who or what Mance WAS, but who/what he WILL BE in this end game.   

 

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Part of me wonders if Mance is being spurred on by dreams or prophecies (whether his own or others) and all roads lead back to Jon Snow.

Agree - and to my comment above, I think Mance knows something very important about Jon - whether that's who he is or what he will do, also in that end game - and Mance himself needs to play a role alongside him.   My guess is that Mance is aware that in 'whatever' cycle of magical goings-on of Westeros is happening again, he will be reenacting the role of Joramun, the King Beyond the Wall that will join forces with the Stark in Winterfell to wake giants from the earth and end the Long Night 2.0.

Now, like most of the players in the current game, Mance is probably misinterpreting some things and taking the old legends literally - like I'm not so sure that the "horn" is a real physical object, for instance, although Mance clearly seems to think so - but one thing I believe he IS interpreting correctly is that Jon Snow  - he who will possibly end up as the Stark of Winterfell - is very, very crucial to this scenario for some reason we don't know just yet - and I suspect it has to do with Jon's blood.  Not dragon blood (if he even has any), but his Stark blood - and perhaps something else.

 

 

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1 hour ago, PrettyPig said:

Maybe it's not really about who or what Mance WAS, but who/what he WILL BE in this end game.   

 

Agree - and to my comment above, I think Mance knows something very important about Jon - whether that's who he is or what he will do, also in that end game - and Mance himself needs to play a role alongside him.   My guess is that Mance is aware that in 'whatever' cycle of magical goings-on of Westeros is happening again, he will be reenacting the role of Joramun, the King Beyond the Wall that will join forces with the Stark in Winterfell to wake giants from the earth and end the Long Night 2.0.

Now, like most of the players in the current game, Mance is probably misinterpreting some things and taking the old legends literally - like I'm not so sure that the "horn" is a real physical object, for instance, although Mance clearly seems to think so - but one thing I believe he IS interpreting correctly is that Jon Snow  - he who will possibly end up as the Stark of Winterfell - is very, very crucial to this scenario for some reason we don't know just yet - and I suspect it has to do with Jon's blood.  Not dragon blood (if he even has any), but his Stark blood - and perhaps something else.

 

 

I agree.  My biggest beef with the Heresy thread used to be the fact that it seemed to ignore Jon's Targaryen heritage, which I naturally assumed existed.  But if you go back through the books, especially the first one, you find that George has structured Jon's story arc around his place in Winterfell, and his lust for it.  Even as "recently" as the last book :rolleyes:, Jon's internal struggle over Winterell continues.  

Which would make Jon's father a Targaryen prince a big detour from the foundations laid by George for Jon's story arc.  Now, don't get me wrong, I certainly think that George is trying to lead us on the primrose path, but my guess is he's doing this to distract us from Jon's true origins.  

Once it ocurred to me (thanks to this thread among others) how flimsy and ethereal the thread was connecting Lyanna and Jon's birth to the tower of joy, it opened up the timing of Jon's conception quite a bit.  And this in turn led me back to another potential, yet very dark, possibility that Brandon could be Jon's father.  Which in turn would be the only possible parentage that would add additional layers to Jon's internal and external conflict over Winterfell.

(Not that I've completely given up on the idea of Jon having a drop or two of Targaryen blood, but if he did I suspect it's from his great grandmother of House Flint, but that's a tinfoil for another day)

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11 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree.  My biggest beef with the Heresy thread used to be the fact that it seemed to ignore Jon's Targaryen heritage, which I naturally assumed existed.  But if you go back through the books, especially the first one, you find that George has structured Jon's story arc around his place in Winterfell, and his lust for it.  Even as "recently" as the last book :rolleyes:, Jon's internal struggle over Winterfell continues.  

While I'm not convinced by the Brandon theory I do very much agree that Jon's "internal struggle over Winterfell" is effectively ignored by the R+L=J theory, which places Jon's supposed Targaryen destiny at the very centre of the Song of Ice and Fire. Yet Winter is Coming and it is Winterfell not Valyria which is central to the story.

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15 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree.  My biggest beef with the Heresy thread used to be the fact that it seemed to ignore Jon's Targaryen heritage, which I naturally assumed existed.  But if you go back through the books, especially the first one, you find that George has structured Jon's story arc around his place in Winterfell, and his lust for it.  Even as "recently" as the last book :rolleyes:, Jon's internal struggle over Winterell continues.  

The assumptions around the tower of joy and the interpretations of Ned's dream have been a big problem for me as well.  It's seems so incongruent that Rhaegar would leave a pregnant woman to give birth in a round tower when just down the road is an abandoned castle more suited to the purpose.  Better yet, why not Starfall where we at least have a reference to Jon's nursemaid.  Jon's place of birth and date of birth are still an open question for me.

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

The assumptions around the tower of joy and the interpretations of Ned's dream have been a big problem for me as well.  It's seems so incongruent that Rhaegar would leave a pregnant woman to give birth in a round tower when just down the road is an abandoned castle more suited to the purpose.  Better yet, why not Starfall where we at least have a reference to Jon's nursemaid.  Jon's place of birth and date of birth are still an open question for me.

Ah well, the problem there is the insistence on treating a dream "and a fever dream at that" literally :commie:

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On 1/21/2018 at 7:01 AM, LynnS said:

It's seems so incongruent that Rhaegar would leave a pregnant woman to give birth in a round tower when just down the road is an abandoned castle more suited to the purpose.  Better yet, why not Starfall where we at least have a reference to Jon's nursemaid.  Jon's place of birth and date of birth are still an open question for me.

Yeah, this came up recently in the R+L=J thread.  

It was asserted with some confidence that it's not an open question because the app says:

Quote

...the prince could not be found for the first months of the war. Rumor had it that he was in the south with Lyanna, at a place called the Tower of Joy, near the red mountains of Dorne. But eventually his father sent Ser Gerold Hightower to recall Rhaegar to his duties, though Rhaegar ordered Ser Gerold, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell to keep guard over Lyanna in the south.

Shocking all who read my posts, I expressed some doubt that the app could possibly be right.  

It seemed to me then, and seems to me now, that if Aerys knew where Lyanna was halfway into the war, he surely would have taken her hostage, and leveraged her to the hilt against Ned (who loved her) and Robert (who, according to Ned, loved her more).

Aerys's failure to realize he could do this, for multiple consecutive months, is made even more startling by the fact that he did in fact leverage Elia... at this very same time... to compel loyalty from the Dornish and thus ensure their warriors didn't flip to Robert at a very awkward time.

So yeah.  Pfffft.  The whole ToJ narrative this site has cooked up, that you also find in the app, is hanging over a cliff, held there only by the heartstrings of sighing fans, and likely to plunge to a gruesome fate in the next book.

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23 minutes ago, JNR said:

Yeah, this came up recently in the R+L=J thread.  

It was asserted with some confidence that it's not an open question because the app says:

Shocking all who read my posts, I expressed some doubt that the app could possibly be right.  

It seemed to me then, and seems to me now, that if Aerys knew where Lyanna was halfway into the war, he surely would have taken her hostage, and leveraged her to the hilt against Ned (who loved her) and Robert (who, according to Ned, loved her more).

Aerys's failure to realize he could do this, for multiple consecutive months, is made even more startling by the fact that he did in fact leverage Elia... at this very same time... to compel loyalty from the Dornish and thus ensure their warriors didn't flip to Robert at a very awkward time.

So yeah.  Pfffft.  The whole ToJ narrative this site has cooked up, that you also find in the app, is hanging over a cliff, held there only by the heartstrings of sighing fans, and likely to plunge to a gruesome fate in the next book.

I don't have the App, but 'rumor had it'.  I don't think this specific wording is chosen by accident.

ru·mor
 
  1. a currently circulating story or report of uncertain or doubtful truth.
    "they were investigating rumors of a massacre"
    synonyms: gossip, hearsay, talk, tittle-tattle, speculation, word; More
    reports, stories, whispers, canards;
    informalgrapevine, word on the street, buzz, dirt, scuttlebutt, loose lips
    "do you think the talk of her resignation is fact or just rumor?"
verb
  1. 1.
    be circulated as an unverified account.
    "it's rumored that he lives on a houseboat"
     
     
     
Edited by LynnS

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Strange how many "rumors" circulated this time in Westrosi history.

Rumors that you can't find no one to substantiate.

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10 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Strange how many "rumors" circulated this time in Westrosi history.

Rumors that you can't find no one to substantiate.

The recent discussions on the PwiP have made me realize that there is really nothing to the 'prophecy'.  It's a scrap, not even a full sentence.

...that the prince was promised.....

....born of the line of Aerys...

And then Rhaegar:

- Aegon is the PwiP

- his is the song of ice and fire

That's it.  Other than Aemon's speculation that the prince is in fact a dragon and that Dany is the dragon who is promised since she hatched the dragon eggs.

Where does Jon fit in here?  

 

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3 minutes ago, LynnS said:

The recent discussions on the PwiP have made me realize that there is really nothing to the 'prophecy'.  It's a scrap, not even a full sentence.

...that the prince was promised.....

....born of the line of Aerys...

And then Rhaegar:

- Aegon is the PwiP

- his is the song of ice and fire

That's it.  Other than Aemon's speculation that the prince is in fact a dragon and that Dany is the dragon who is promised since she hatched the dragon eggs.

Where does Jon fit in here?  

 

I've often wondered if  TPTWP was for something or to someone

Or was he supposed to do something.It seems a stupid question but what is his point.

Your right it is a rather incomplete bit of malarkey.

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28 minutes ago, LynnS said:

That's it.  Other than Aemon's speculation that the prince is in fact a dragon and that Dany is the dragon who is promised since she hatched the dragon eggs.

We also have Melisandre presenting TPTWP and AAR as the same figure, so in theory, we also have Melisandre's signs and portents (bleeding stars, Lightbringer, etc.) to work with:
 

Quote

"It means that the battle is begun," said Melisandre. "The sand is running through the glass more quickly now, and man's hour on earth is almost done. We must act boldly, or all hope is lost. Westeros must unite beneath her one true king, the prince that was promised, Lord of Dragonstone and chosen of R'hllor."

...

"You are he who must stand against the Other. The one whose coming was prophesied five thousand years ago. The red comet was your herald. You are the prince that was promised, and if you fail the world fails with you." Melisandre went to him, her red lips parted, her ruby throbbing. "Give me this boy," she whispered, "and I will give you your kingdom."

I say "in theory," because there exists the possibility that Melisandre is conflating different prophecies and improvising these interpretations (the latter, definitely, as demonstrated in her POV) as she goes along--for all we know she has cobbled together a self-serving narrative based on things she learned from the R'hllorists, the shadowbinders, and Westerosi lore. 

Edited by Matthew.

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8 hours ago, LynnS said:

The recent discussions on the PwiP have made me realize that there is really nothing to the 'prophecy'.  It's a scrap, not even a full sentence.

...that the prince was promised.....

....born of the line of Aerys...

And then Rhaegar:

- Aegon is the PwiP

- his is the song of ice and fire

That's it.  Other than Aemon's speculation that the prince is in fact a dragon and that Dany is the dragon who is promised since she hatched the dragon eggs.

Where does Jon fit in here?  

 

I fear that what also gets overlooked in all of this, is that this isn't the Game of Thrones but the Song of Ice and Fire. As you rightly point out, the prophecy is [or at least has been interpreted as] referring to a descendant of Aerys Targaryen, who has a role to play in the Song of Ice and Fire.

As it happens we have one Danaerys Targaryen who appears to fit the prophecy and has succeeded in hatching a trio of dragons. On the other hand we also have Jon Snow, who is proclaimed by readers to be the Son of Ice and Fire, ie; R+L=J. This may or may not be so, but whether his is the Song of Ice and Fire is a different matter.

Maester Aemon [Targaryen] proclaimed, with good reason, Danaerys Targaryen to be the Prince that was Promised. On the other hand he proclaimed Jon Snow to be a Son of Winterfell. It has been speculated, without the slightest shred of evidence, that Maester Aemon was aware of R+L=J, yet it was Jon Snow's Winterfell heritage that he used to rally him and more broadly, as Frey Family Reunion points out, all of Jon's story arc thus far revolves around it.

Danaerys cannot be dismissed; unlike important secondary characters like Varys, Littlefinger and even Mance Rayder [or whoever he really is], Danaerys is one of the key characters identified by GRRM right at the very beginning.If there is to be a joining of Ice and Fire it is far more likely to be a joining - or mutual destruction - of Jon, the King of Winter and Danaerys the Dragonlord, rather than Jon alone.

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9 hours ago, Matthew. said:

We also have Melisandre presenting TPTWP and AAR as the same figure, so in theory, we also have Melisandre's signs and portents (bleeding stars, Lightbringer, etc.) to work with:

I say "in theory," because there exists the possibility that Melisandre is conflating different prophecies and improvising these interpretations (the latter, definitely, as demonstrated in her POV) as she goes along--for all we know she has cobbled together a self-serving narrative based on things she learned from the R'hllorists, the shadowbinders, and Westerosi lore. 

Except for the fact that Aemon and Rhaegar also conflates the two prophecies; I'd say Mel is using the story primarily for political advantage since its seems that the story of the PwiP might be common knowledge.  Tacking that onto Stannis' credentials in other words to give more weight to her narrative.  What I don't understand is why she is obsessed with Stannis and the Baratheon bloodline when the prophecy is made about the Targ bloodline. Why doesn't she take any interest in Dany or her dragons?  

What does make sense to me is that the prince was promised that dragons would be born to the line or Aerys. This seems to be Aemon's conclusion and he backs that up by saying that this was the purpose behind the tragedy of Summerhall. 

Rhaegar too seems to have been reading prophecies about bleeding stars since he concludes that he can't be the PwiP since there are no such portents around his birth.  But instead he casts himself in the role of warrior and later Aegon as the PwiP skipping a generation.

Aemon also mentions dreams but not the dreamer; so I think it's possible that Rhaegar's interpretation has been influenced by the Ghost of High Heart where Rhaegar seems to have spent so much time along with his harp composing songs in exchange for dreams.

Melisandre seems more heavily influence by the older prophecy and I think she has cast herself in the role of Nissa Nissa.

When Aemon examines Stannis' shiny new sword Lightbringer; he makes the comment that it can't be the sword because there is no heat.

However Lightbringer wasn't always warm:
 

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

"His Grace is not an easy man. Few are, who wear a crown. Many good men have been bad kings, Maester Aemon used to say, and some bad men have been good kings."

"He would know." Aemon Targaryen had seen nine kings upon the Iron Throne. He had been a king's son, a king's brother, a king's uncle. "I looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife's blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame."

The sword isn't warm until tempered in his wife's blood.  I think the beast and Nissa Nissa are one in the same.

Dany's dragon dream transformation uses the same language:  

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys III

Day followed day, and night followed night, until Dany knew she could not endure a moment longer. She would kill herself rather than go on, she decided one night …

Yet when she slept that night, she dreamt the dragon dream again. Viserys was not in it this time. There was only her and the dragon. Its scales were black as night, wet and slick with blood. Her blood, Dany sensed. Its eyes were pools of molten magma, and when it opened its mouth, the flame came roaring out in a hot jet. She could hear it singing to her. She opened her arms to the fire, embraced it, let it swallow her whole, let it cleanse her and temper her and scour her clean. She could feel her flesh sear and blacken and slough away, could feel her blood boil and turn to steam, and yet there was no pain. She felt strong and new and fierce.

   

 

Edited by LynnS

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32 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I fear that what also gets overlooked in all of this, is that this isn't the Game of Thrones but the Song of Ice and Fire. As you rightly point out, the prophecy is [or at least has been interpreted as] referring to a descendant of Aerys Targaryen, who has a role to play in the Song of Ice and Fire.

As it happens we have one Danaerys Targaryen who appears to fit the prophecy and has succeeded in hatching a trio of dragons. On the other hand we also have Jon Snow, who is proclaimed by readers to be the Son of Ice and Fire, ie; R+L=J. This may or may not be so, but whether his is the Song of Ice and Fire is a different matter.

Maester Aemon [Targaryen] proclaimed, with good reason, Danaerys Targaryen to be the Prince that was Promised. On the other hand he proclaimed Jon Snow to be a Son of Winterfell. It has been speculated, without the slightest shred of evidence, that Maester Aemon was aware of R+L=J, yet it was Jon Snow's Winterfell heritage that he used to rally him and more broadly, as Frey Family Reunion points out, all of Jon's story arc thus far revolves around it.

Danaerys cannot be dismissed; unlike important secondary characters like Varys, Littlefinger and even Mance Rayder [or whoever he really is], Danaerys is one of the key characters identified by GRRM right at the very beginning.If there is to be a joining of Ice and Fire it is far more likely to be a joining - or mutual destruction - of Jon, the King of Winter and Danaerys the Dragonlord, rather than Jon alone.

So well said Black Crow! 

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