Loras’s Burning – A Humbling Moment

[Dorian Martell's son]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't understand. Why does he need to pretend to be injured for that? If they were pretending to have captured Dragonstone, surely he could just send a note to Cersei saying "Dear Nutcase. Captured Dragonstone for you. Now going to fight the Ironborn as we agreed. Thanks. Bye."

At this point, the Tyrells have no reason to think Cersei will keep her word. The fact that she would deny protection to the reach over the taking of an already blockaded island is proof enough she wants to harm them. If the Injury is false, it would allow Loras to head to the reach before returning to King's landing and his KG duties 

[Haus Berlin]

4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

(...) Why would he need to do that secretly though? He was told he could do just that after Dragonstone was captured. And Margaery surely needs him in Kings Landing?

Thanks for your interest. I see I should better return with a theory, but I still have to work one out. So for now I stick to answering your thoughtful questions.

The problem with Loras needed in KL is, that not Margaery needs a defender, but Cersei. And she is not shying away from sacrifice, seeing that she sended for Jaime, who can't properly handle a sword. The Tyrells surely won't count on her word after the lack of trust Cersei demonstrated. She gave her word for Highgarden's defence unwillingly and her trial by combat would offer just the case to call for her Kingsguard. To let Loras die for her would make her lost case a bit sweeter,  wouldn't it? As only death frees you from your service, Loras would be clever to die. But he is too famous to just fake that. The smallfolk cheered him when he was off to Dragonstone so to make him a free man they need to see him deadly wounded.

Quote

If Jaime's in on it, surely Jaime could just do it? Why would he need a lookalike? And surely Tommen would know the difference between the two? As would the rest of the Kingsguard.

I have to work on that. But for now I can answer, that beside sick Boros Blount there is only Ser Robert Strong around. You can fool them with authority. And Tommen would love to go on adventure with his idol Loras. The Tyrells would not risk to send Jaime, as he fathered Tommen and loved the queen Cersei.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

12 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

At this point, the Tyrells have no reason to think Cersei will keep her word. The fact that she would deny protection to the reach over the taking of an already blockaded island is proof enough she wants to harm them. If the Injury is false, it would eeallow Loras to head to the reach before returning to King's landing and his KG duties

That seems extremely convoluted. Ultimately, the Redwynes control the ships. She's already made the deal. They can just announce that they're off if she tries to break her word.

11 minutes ago, Haus Berlin said:

there beside sick Boros Blount there is only Ser Robert Strong around. You can cool them with authority.

I think you might be over-estimating Zombie Gregor's respect for the chain of command, but we'll have to see. 

The Tyrells would not risk to send Jaime, as he fathered Tommen and loved the queen Cersei.

I'm still not 100% clear what this plan is in aid of, and it seems a very round about way of getting Tommen away from Cersei.

 

[bent branch]

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

But then that would be fine. Dragonstone's captured, and he can move onto the Reach. No need for the deception.

True. He may simply be recovering well though. 

The reason to not mention is so that they could take the troops that were "killed" with them. As I said, my opinion about what happened there is currently under revision.

[Dorian Martell's son]

59 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That seems extremely convoluted. Ultimately, the Redwynes control the ships. She's already made the deal. They can just announce that they're off if she tries to break her word.

It is very convoluted. Every single theory in here is.  But this is a book about dragons, ice demons, not-elves, blood and fire magic and networked data storage trees only accessible by a very select few. I personally am not on board with it, but it does fit. 

[HexMachina]

57 minutes ago, bent branch said:

The reason to not mention is so that they could take the troops that were "killed" with them. As I said, my opinion about what happened there is currently under revision.

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast.

[bent branch]

6 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast.

No, you are right. That would be the motivation for pretending they were killed, rather than just returning them to Kingslanding.

[Rufus Snow]

12 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast.

That's an interesting observation - putting westerlanders into the fore in a particularly bloody assault will put all of the casualties on the Lannister account. It has an echo of Jaime's threats to Edmure when he said he'd put riverlanders in the forefront to storm Riverrun. If Loras did do that, it was with a clear calculation as to where he wanted the harm to fall...

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

2 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast.

This is the only argument I've ever seen that makes me think Loras's injury could be fake. That his injury was added in to soften the blow of the thousand odd (more, maybe? Can't quite recall) Lannister men that were lost in what would have been a bloodless victory. Cersei focuses on that, thinking that the lost men were worth it, to rid herself of Loras. Still, once anyone actually sees Loras, they'll realise he wasn't burned. So why not say he was injured in some other manner, so as when he's seen, they can just assume he's healed. I just don't see it.

3 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

At this point, the Tyrells have no reason to think Cersei will keep her word. The fact that she would deny protection to the reach over the taking of an already blockaded island is proof enough she wants to harm them.

That doesn't make sense. Dragonstone wouldn't be blockaded if the Redwyne fleet left, which was what the Tyrells wanted. Besides, after taking Dragonstone, the fleet can just go and do what Cersei promised they could. No need to return first, and certainly no need to trick Cersei into thinking Loras is injured.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

6 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

This is the only argument I've ever seen that makes me think Loras's injury could be fake. That his injury was added in to soften the blow of the thousand odd (more, maybe? Can't quite recall) Lannister men that were lost in what would have been a bloodless victory.

I don't think Cersei would have cared if there were heavy losses irrespective. She would have been pleased enough to capture Dragonstone.

8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast

If they are Westerlanders (and I think you're right, there is mention of that in AFFC), then many of the ideas about Loras's injury being fake seem even less likely. If it's a ruse to pretend Dragonstone is taken, there's no way they can trust soldiers from the West not to tell people what's really going on, and they would have no interest in tricking Cersei in order to defend the Reach.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

22 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't think Cersei would have cared if there were heavy losses irrespective. She would have been pleased enough to capture Dragonstone.

I don't disagree, though of course, should things have proceeded as they were going, Dragonstone would've been taken without losses. Of course, that was holding up the Redwyne fleet, and the war effort against the Ironborn as a result.

 

26 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

If they are Westerlanders (and I think you're right, there is mention of that in AFFC), then many of the ideas about Loras's injury being fake seem even less likely. If it's a ruse to pretend Dragonstone is taken, there's no way they can trust soldiers from the West not to tell people what's really going on, and they would have no interest in tricking Cersei in order to defend the Reach.

I completely agree. Now, Cersei hears the tale from Aurane Waters, but why should we assume that none of the Westerlands men came back with him? I don't see any reason why, if Dragonstone was taken, that they wouldn't return to King's Landing. Or, if it's a ruse, the fact that none of the Westerlands men returned might be suspicious, no? One careless word from one of them (especially since they wouldn't be in on the plan to trick Cersei) could make it's way to the Queen, and the whole thing would be revealed.

Anyway, Cersei definitely intended on letting the Redwyne fleet take the fight to the Ironborn. She thinks about it when sending Loras off:

No matter what befell the boy on Dragonstone, however, the queen would be the winner. If Loras took the castle, Stannis would suffer a grievous blow, and the Redwyne fleet could sail off to meet the ironmen...

Of course, the Tyrells don't know Cersei's thoughts, but still.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

26 minutes ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Anyway, Cersei definitely intended on letting the Redwyne fleet take the fight to the Ironborn. She thinks about it when sending Loras off:

No matter what befell the boy on Dragonstone, however, the queen would be the winner. If Loras took the castle, Stannis would suffer a grievous blow, and the Redwyne fleet could sail off to meet the ironmen...

Of course, the Tyrells don't know Cersei's thoughts, but still.

Yeah, Cersei is bananas, but even she doesn't think it's a good idea having the Ironborn running amok in the Reach, she's just a bit less urgent about it than Margaery and Loras, and is more concerned about Dragonstone. She also became purposely obstructive in order to annoy Margaery. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

11 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

FWIW, the soldiers Loras takes to assault DS appear to be men from the Westerlands. And not just the sweepings of Lannisports but young knights and lordlings. I’ll try and come back with the relevant quote if I can...it’s from a Jaime POV I know, before he leaves KL in Feast.

This is the only quote I can find right now, from Aurane Waters who was at the assault. 

"I never saw a braver knight, but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest." (Cersei VII, AFFC)

The Loras situation is one of those situations where one day I think he's going to die, and the next, I don't think he is. The fleet that's there is the Redwyne fleet and Aurane Waters is not as loyal as Cersei thinks he is. Who knows if these westermen who died weren't killed by reachmen after the Dragonstone was taken. 

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Yeah, Cersei is bananas,

Well, I wouldn't say that Cersei is crazy. The Tyrells really are a massive threat, and pretty much everyone is actually out to get her. But that's a conversation for another time.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

but even she doesn't think it's a good idea having the Ironborn running amok in the Reach, she's just a bit less urgent about it than Margaery and Loras, and is more concerned about Dragonstone. She also became purposely obstructive in order to annoy Margaery.

Yeah, allowing the Ironborn free rein attacking her Kingdom would be the height of idiocy, truly. I know people don't really rate Cersei's intelligence, but honestly.

As to the bolded, she's right to be more concerned about Dragonstone. It's much, much more important than a bunch of rocks.

"Rocks?" gasped Margaery. "Did Your Grace say rocks?"

Heh. That has to be one of my favourite exchanges in the series. I am serious though, abandoning Dragonstone to combat the Ironborn at the Shields would've been foolish.

[HexMachina]

13 hours ago, bent branch said:

No, you are right. That would be the motivation for pretending they were killed, rather than just returning them to Kingslanding.

I was sort of wondering about the logistics of keeping any falsehoods hidden with so many Westermen on Dragonstone. One of them would surely say something?

2 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

This is the only quote I can find right now, from Aurane Waters who was at the assault. 

"I never saw a braver knight, but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest." (Cersei VII, AFFC)

The Loras situation is one of those situations where one day I think he's going to die, and the next, I don't think he is. The fleet that's there is the Redwyne fleet and Aurane Waters is not as loyal as Cersei thinks he is. Who knows if these westermen who died weren't killed by reachmen after the Dragonstone was taken. 

It was a quote, from Jaime II:

Quote

As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne’s fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged.

So it was seasoned veterans, rather than young knights and lordlings as I originally said. Same point applies though, it would be a significant blow to the West to lose so many experienced men

[Rufus Snow]

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Yeah, allowing the Ironborn free rein attacking her Kingdom would be the height of idiocy, truly. I know people don't really rate Cersei's intelligence, but honestly.

As to the bolded, she's right to be more concerned about Dragonstone. It's much, much more important than a bunch of rocks.

"Rocks?" gasped Margaery. "Did Your Grace say rocks?"

Heh. That has to be one of my favourite exchanges in the series. I am serious though, abandoning Dragonstone to combat the Ironborn at the Shields would've been foolish.

I'm not convinced that Dragonstone was a great prize in anything beyond symbolic terms - as things stand at this time, Stannis is thousands of leagues away from it, it is doing him little good, and posing no real threat to the Crown. Its meager garrison is not like to sally out and cause mayhem. They're holed up and neutralised in any effective sense. It would have been just as effective for the Crown to let the siege drag on, and take the fleet away to deal with the Ironborn - except for a few ships to provision the besieging army.

As for what Loras was up to, he may have been harbouring a death wish, or judged it a worthy sacrifice to give up his life in favour of freeing the Redwyne fleet to defend the Reach, but by storming the castle he could be sure to take thousands of Lannister retainers (knights, lordlings and veterans all seem to have been cited) with him down to the seven hells. I don't think there's any need for anyone to be lying about the casualties. I believe a big chunk of Westermen died, and Loras probably intended it so.

In the current situation, the Shields are more important than Dragonstone - they defend the mouth of the Mander and the coastline of the Reach, the power of which Cersei depends upon for the stability of the Crown, for all she sees them as a threat to her personal power. Now it seems that Loras has given her cause to fear, but she (typically) shrugs off the losses because she has her worthless prize of Dragonstone. The political wrangling between Tyrell and Lannister is becoming more visceral, but Cersei is still fretting more about Council seats and spiting Margaery.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

49 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

I'm not convinced that Dragonstone was a great prize in anything beyond symbolic terms - as things stand at this time, Stannis is thousands of leagues away from it, it is doing him little good, and posing no real threat to the Crown. Its meager garrison is not like to sally out and cause mayhem. They're holed up and neutralised in any effective sense. It would have been just as effective for the Crown to let the siege drag on, and take the fleet away to deal with the Ironborn - except for a few ships to provision the besieging army.

Shouldn't underestimate the importance symbolism can have on a war. Dragonstone is Stannis's only stronghold in the south. Without it, Stannis's part in the War of the Five Kings is well and truly on hold - and make no mistake, Stannis is a bigger threat than the Ironborn.

But aside from it's symbolic importance, a besieging army is relatively weak. Once attacked, it has enemies on all sides. Stannis could, with relative ease, amass a small fleet and attack; especially if the Redwyne fleet is gone. Should he do so now that Dragonstone is taken, he has to lay siege, leaving his fleet open to attack.

Should he come back and garrison Dragonstone, the war is back on, in full force. Dragonstone is a tactically advantageous position, and Stannis is an impressive leader. He could take Dragonstone and put forces on the mainland quickly, and it wouldn't be a simple measure to finish him. Couldn't just lay siege to Dragonstone and call it a day, not if he'd taken other strongholds.

58 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

I don't think there's any need for anyone to be lying about the casualties. I believe a big chunk of Westermen died, and Loras probably intended it so.

I agree. Aurane reports it as a thousand casualties, "most" of them Westermen. Most can be anywhere from just over half to just under all, so who knows how many were lost. Though Jaime reports them as 2,000 strong, when they're leaving, so less than half of the Westermen there died. Still, quite a loss of seasoned men, considering it could've been bloodless.

Very shortsighted of Loras, though, unless he thinks it inevitable that Cersei is going to remove Margaery from power (he left before her imprisonment, so that seems unlikely). The men who Loras killed taking Dragonstone (I think it fair to phrase it that way) would have protected Cersei from common enemies to both the Lannisters and the Tyrells, indirectly protecting Margaery. Foolish indeed. Weakening the Lannister forces at this point weakens the Tyrells, too.

1 hour ago, Rufus Snow said:

In the current situation, the Shields are more important than Dragonstone - they defend the mouth of the Mander and the coastline of the Reach, the power of which Cersei depends upon for the stability of the Crown, for all she sees them as a threat to her personal power.

The rocks weren't going to get untaken simply by the Fleet leaving Dragonstone, but the efforts at Dragonstone could have been undone by leaving for the Shields (not that Stannis was going to return, but there could be no certainty about that). As awful as it is that the Ironborn took the Shields, they're really not the threat that Stannis is. They're little more than pirates, raiding here, pillaging there. Nothing to get worked up about. Of course, Euron is a wildcard, and might make things different, but history is on Cersei's side, here.

Not to mention, the Ironmen have left the Shields to their own devices. Their fleet isn't coming back to give them succor. The longer Cersei waits to take back the Shields, the further away Euron and his fleet get. Good for the Shields. Can't leave it too long, of course, but the time it would take to take Dragonstone wouldn't have been too long.

1 hour ago, Rufus Snow said:

Now it seems that Loras has given her cause to fear, but she (typically) shrugs off the losses because she has her worthless prize of Dragonstone.

It was worth the cost, even if it could have been much cheaper. Though time is a commodity in war, so the savings made in that way might even things out.

1 hour ago, Rufus Snow said:

The political wrangling between Tyrell and Lannister is becoming more visceral, but Cersei is still fretting more about Council seats and spiting Margaery.

She's right to fret, as Ser Kevan notes in the Dance epilogue.

The more I give him, the more he wants. Kevan Lannister was beginning to understand why Cersei had grown so resentful of the Tyrells.

The Council seats are important, especially in the long term. In a few years, should the Tyrells succeed in some of their power grabs, the entire Small Council will be represented by those with Tyrell leanings. If all of the King's advisers are Tyrell men, the Tyrells control the King. Yes, he could make his own choices, but whenever he has a hard decision, if all of his trusted voices say the same thing, he'll listen. Tommen more so than some, to be sure, should he not change too much.

All of Cersei's work could be undone if she's not careful with the Tyrells, and she'll have allowed it. She needs to cut it off before it happens, or the Tyrells will be the true Monarchs within a generation. She'd hardly be the first ruler conquered in such a manner.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Dragonstone is Stannis's only stronghold in the south.

Small point, but he holds Storms End as well.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

22 minutes ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Shouldn't underestimate the importance symbolism can have on a war. Dragonstone is Stannis's only stronghold in the south. Without it, Stannis's part in the War of the Five Kings is well and truly on hold - and make no mistake, Stannis is a bigger threat than the Ironborn.

Stannis has Storm's End and he is expecting Dragonstone to fall. He says as much when he sends word to Rolland Storm to start mining the dragonglass.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

49 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Small point, but he holds Storms End as well.

Well. Good work brain. I should probably get more sleep.

30 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Stannis has Storm's End and he is expecting Dragonstone to fall. He says as much when he sends word to Rolland Storm to start mining the dragonglass.

True enough, but how is Cersei to know that Stannis has truly abandoned Dragonstone? Sure, Stannis has turned his attention North, but without being there, there's no way to know what his plans are, how soon he'll leave, etc.

Still very important, albeit slightly less so, with Stannis still holding Storm's End. Not the war ending stroke, but still a devastating strike. Definitely more on the symbolic side.

Cannot imagine why I thought Stannis didn't hold Storm's End. Just slipped my mind, I guess. I feel quite the fool.