Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

[Blackfish Tully]

On 4/21/2018 at 6:10 PM, Bernie Mac said:

The fact that multiple characters, including Stannis himself, point out that he should have been there longer. he was expected to be there longer, that is a fact. 

 

sorry , i thought that you meant that it was a fact that Stannis was there longer not that it was a fact that he was expected to be there longer , i guess i just misread that post

 

On 4/21/2018 at 6:10 PM, Bernie Mac said:

 

 

the characters in the book point out that Stannis was expected to be there longer, I really don't understand what your problem with this is. 

 

 i guess my problem with this whole point is that it seems like you keep downplaying just how devastating it was to Tywin to have Robb in the Westerlands. Robb being there was a huge problem for Tywin and the Iron Born attacking the Westerlands would have been just that much more devastating and would have put even more pressure on Tywin to either decide to stay and protect Kings Landing or head West to defeat Robb and the Iron Born . Tywin would only have left Kings Landing vulnerable to Stannis if he really had no choice , he could not win a long drawn out war with Robb controlling the resources of the Westerlands . 

[Hugorfonics]

21 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 i guess my problem with this whole point is that it seems like you keep downplaying just how devastating it was to Tywin to have Robb in the Westerlands. Robb being there was a huge problem for Tywin and the Iron Born attacking the Westerlands would have been just that much more devastating and would have put even more pressure on Tywin to either decide to stay and protect Kings Landing or head West to defeat Robb and the Iron Born . Tywin would only have left Kings Landing vulnerable to Stannis if he really had no choice , he could not win a long drawn out war with Robb controlling the resources of the Westerlands . 

Tywin retreated to KL. He tried to take back the Westernlands but was held up by Edmure.Even if the ironborn were in the west, Edmure would still be at Riverrun. 

It seems like Tywin abandons his land the second Petyr offers an alliance with the Reach

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 i guess my problem with this whole point is that it seems like you keep downplaying just how devastating it was to Tywin to have Robb in the Westerlands.

Because it clearly was not. 

devastating

ˈdɛvəsteɪtɪŋ/

adjective

• adjective: devastating

1. causing severe shock, distress, or grief.

 

 

Tywin was not devastated by Robb being in the Westerlands, nor does it seem his lords were either otherwise they would have marched as soon as possible after the battle of blackwater, instead they do nothing, allow Robb to remain as long as he liked. 

 

The trouble for Robb was that he was counting on the Ironborn to help him, without them he was not much of threat to the settlements that the incredibly elitist Tywin cared about. Most of the trouble Robb was causing was for the westerland smallfolk rather than the nobility. 

 

The same is true for the north, if the Ironborn only targeted villages Robb would never have returned, it is only the loss of Winterfell and his brothers that force him to leave. 

 

 

 

Quote

 

Robb being there was a huge problem for Tywin

again, you are being hyperbolic. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Because it clearly was not. 

devastating

ˈdɛvəsteɪtɪŋ/

adjective

• adjective: devastating

1. causing severe shock, distress, or grief.

 

 

Tywin was not devastated by Robb being in the Westerlands, nor does it seem his lords were either otherwise they would have marched as soon as possible after the battle of blackwater, instead they do nothing, allow Robb to remain as long as he liked. 

 

 

"causing severe shock, distress, or grief."  so Robb crushing Stafford and killing and capturing a huge number of Westerlanders (including Stafford Lannister ) taking two castles including Ashemark ,Adam Marbrands home , plundering the countryside  and taking several Gold Mine does not count for severe shock , distress or grief ? Tywin did not march after the Battle of Blackwater because he knew that Robb Stark had no choice at that point but to return to the Riverlands , why would he stay in the Westerlands after Tywin was joined by the Tyrells that would be just stupid of him . 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

again, you are being hyperbolic. 

 

not one bit , Robb Stark being in the Westerlands was a huge problem for Tywin , that's why he abandoned Kings Landing with Stannis Breatheon sitting at Storms End with an army that Kings Landing could not hope to defeat . He thought he had more time (which he was clearly wrong ) but if Robb was not a huge problem for him his ass would not have moved from Harrenhall . 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

"causing severe shock, distress, or grief."  so Robb crushing Stafford and killing and capturing a huge number of Westerlanders (including Stafford Lannister ) taking two castles including Ashemark ,Adam Marbrands home , plundering the countryside  and taking several Gold Mine does not count for severe shock , distress or grief ? 

quite clearly not, otherwise he and the other westerland nobles would have been hellbent on getting West after the battle of blackwater, they would not be chilling in camps outside of kings landing with Robb still in the West, and who would not return from the west for a few months after the battle of blackwater. 

tywin's reaction to this is not severe shock, distress or grief. robb being in the west is not devastating, you are clearly using hyperbolic language which in no way describes the demeanor of tywin in the opening chapters of asos. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

quite clearly not, otherwise he and the other westerland nobles would have been hellbent on getting West after the battle of blackwater, they would not be chilling in camps outside of kings landing with Robb still in the West, and who would not return from the west for a few months after the battle of blackwater. 

tywin's reaction to this is not severe shock, distress or grief. robb being in the west is not devastating, you are clearly using hyperbolic language which in no way describes the demeanor of tywin in the opening chapters of asos. 

 

I think the problem is that you are not taking into account the fact that before the battle of Blackwater and after the battle of Blackwater are two massively different time frames and Blackwater changed everything in Westeroes . Before Blackwater Tywin was sitting in Harrenhall with 20,000 troops and he was trying to protect Kings Landing from Stannis , the Tyrells had rebelled against the Iron Throne and were now a wild card and Robb was in the Westerlands taking castles and cutting him off from his resources . He was looking at a potentially long drawn out war with Stannis and Robb and the Riverlords with Dorne , the Vale and Reach all potentially joining one side or another . So at that point Robb having an army in the Westerlands was devastating to his chances and that's why he went West . After Blackwater Stannis was no longer a real threat and Tywin had the full might of the Reach and their resources on his side so he had an overwhelming advantage in men and resources so Robb cutting him off from the Westerlands did not matter and he knew that Robb would have no choice but to abandon the Westerlands and head back to the Riverlands to try and salvage his new kingdom . Why would Tywin waste the time and resources to move an army to the Westerlands when he had a plan to use the Freys and Roose Bolton to take care of Robb . 

[Arthur Peres]

On 16/04/2018 at 4:21 AM, Bernie Mac said:

captured or killed; Hornwood (x2), Cerwyn, Kartark (x3), Manderly, Locke, Tallhart, Cassell

and that is just the northern nobles, the riverland nobles also seen significant captures and deaths, that is what happens during long running wars, the casualty list will climb

Fixed.

The Westerlands after Robb

Lannisters (4) Jaime, Willen, Martyn Captured and Staford killed 

Crackhall(2) Roland Crackhall and Lyle captured,

Jast (at least 3) Lord captured, at least 2 sons captured

Brax(3) Andros and Robert brax killed Tytos Brax captured

Baneford(1) Lord captured

Lefford(1) Lord Killed

Greenfield(1) Lord Captured

Spicer and westerling(?) everyone taken captured

Again as Tyrion says, after whispering woods alone...

“Perhaps they would consent to a truce, and allow us to trade our prisoners for theirs,” offered Lord Lefford.

“Unless they trade three-for-one, we still come out light on those scales,” Tyrion said acidly. “And what are we to offer for my brother? Lord Eddard’s rotting head?”

There is no debate here, just let it go, you're wrong.

 

On 15/04/2018 at 10:28 AM, Bernie Mac said:

No, there was still the forces with Prester Forely at the Golden Tooth and the forces with Daven Lannister at Lannisport. 

Quote

That gives him what 3K more at best? so 23k at best? not couting the losses he had to Beric raids, the losses at the battle of the Green fork and the forced march, the raids of Marq Piper and the garrisons lost when the riverlords took their castles back...

 Tywin still very weak, the forces of Sfafford already were "sweepings of Lannisport" as Tyrions says himself. there wasn't a force to challenge Robb in the westerlands.

On 16/04/2018 at 4:21 AM, Bernie Mac said:

I'm sorry, I have no idea what you are talking about. Who is the crow? What does the Nights Watch have to do with this discussion? 

... it seems sarcasm isn't your forte.

[Bernie Mac]

8 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I think the problem is that you are not taking into account the fact that before the battle of Blackwater and after the battle of Blackwater are two massively different time frames and Blackwater changed everything in Westeroes .

No, I am taking into account that battle, that does not change that you using hyperbolic language. If Robb being in the West was truly devastating for Tywin then he and his army would not have sat at kings landing and done nothing, they would have marched to put an end to the 'devastation' that Robb was supposedly causing in the West. 

Obviously Tywin would not have been happy about it, but devastating is clearly the wrong adjective. It is needless hyperbole with no evidence from the books to support it. 

8 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

 Why would Tywin waste the time and resources to move an army to the Westerlands when he had a plan to use the Freys and Roose Bolton to take care of Robb . 

How does Tywin and the Westerland lords know how long Robb and his men are going to stay in the North? How does he even know Edmure would accept?  Why do we so no Westerland lords pressuring Tywin to move as his 'plans' are not exactly public? 

There is no evidence in the books that Robb being in the West was devastating  for Tywin. 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

There is no debate here, just let it go, you're wrong.

how so? you made up a lot of claims and i asked you to prove them and you have simply ignored them.

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

That gives him what 3K more at best?

how so? citation for it only being 3K? 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

not couting the losses he had to Beric raids,

what losses? tell me how this affect the 3k you just made up. quote from the books how many soldiers were lost to this?

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

the losses at the battle of the Green fork and the forced march, the raids of Marq Piper and the garrisons lost when the riverlords took their castles back...

well we know that Tywin still has around 20k after the battle of blackwater so exactly how many losses do you think he took? 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

 Tywin still very weak, the forces of Sfafford already were "sweepings of Lannisport" as Tyrions says himself. there wasn't a force to challenge Robb in the westerlands.

eh? not from the entire West, just from Lannisport, who, according to the author, still have the best city watch in the realm and who Robb knew he could not threaten even with his 6k army. 

by and large the West was well defended, outside of the few thousand with Daven and Prester, it was not in a position to raise another army to send to the Riverlands, but the settlements themselves were mostly well defended. it bears repeating that a poor insignificant house like the Westerlings left better trained troops at the ruinous Crag than Robb did at Winterfell. 

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

... it seems sarcasm isn't your forte.

I have still no idea what you are talking about. please explain how the 'crow' is sarcastic? I don't get it. perhaps the issue is that what you said simply did not make sense in the context of this discussion. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

it bears repeating that a poor insignificant house like the Westerlings left better trained troops at the ruinous Crag than Robb did at Winterfell. 

 

As did the Boltons (a garrison of 600), the Manderlys, Dustins and Ryswells. It has to do with the motivation of the respective lords. Robb wanted the best men down in the Riverlands as quickly as possible, the Weserlings likely were not as enthusiastic. And of course the issue of plot convenience. How else could Martin let Theon capture Winterfell, 500 miles from the coast?

[Blackfish Tully]

15 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, I am taking into account that battle, that does not change that you using hyperbolic language. If Robb being in the West was truly devastating for Tywin then he and his army would not have sat at kings landing and done nothing, they would have marched to put an end to the 'devastation' that Robb was supposedly causing in the West. 

Obviously Tywin would not have been happy about it, but devastating is clearly the wrong adjective. It is needless hyperbole with no evidence from the books to support it. 

 

The  evidence i have is that Tywin left the safety of Harrenhall abandoning Kings Landing (with his children and grandchildren inside ) to the mercies of Stannis and his army and tried to cross over the hostile Riverlands and spent several days trying to force a crossing over the Trident into the heavy defenses of the Riverlords taking heavy losses. Why would he do that if Robb being in the Westerlands was not devastating to his chances in the war ? 

[Bernie Mac]

10 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The  evidence i have is that Tywin left the safety of Harrenhall abandoning Kings Landing (with his children and grandchildren inside ) to the mercies of Stannis

Well first of all that is not evidence that he was devastated by Robb being in the West, that is needless hyperbole that there is zero evidence for. 

There is a gamut of emotions between Tywin being ecstatic that Robb was in the West and him being devastated. It is not a case of one or the other. 

For example how would you imagine Tywin's feelings if he heard that the Ironborn had or joined up with Robb in the West, or worse still that they had taken his capital? In these two instances Tywin's reaction would be worse than what his reaction is in the books. Describing him as devastated is just hyperbole for the sake of hyperbole. 

Secondly, Tyrion has made it clear that his father only left Harrenhal because he was under the, mistaken, impression that Stannis would be some time at Storm's End. The author himself backs this up, so Tywin leaving Harrenahal is not evidence that he was devastated with Robb raiding in the West. 

In fact I'd argue that Jaime's loss and capture at the Whispering Wood had a greater impact on Tywin than Robb being in the West. It simply is not a devastation to him no matter how much you want to beleive it as his and the westerland nobles reaction after the battle of the blackwater, with Robb still in the West, is not of people devastated. 

Quote

 

and his army and tried to cross over the hostile Riverlands and spent several days trying to force a crossing over the Trident into the heavy defenses of the Riverlords taking heavy losses.

How is that evidence of him being devastated. If someone was to say Robb and the northmen were devastated with the loss of Winterfell there is ample evidence in the books to show this

"All?" Was it anger or despair that thickened Robb's voice like that? Even Catelyn was not certain.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The Others can take her, then," Robb cursed, in a fury of despair. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The ironmen have my castle and now the Lannisters hold my brother," Galbart Glover said, in a voice thick with despair.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The ironmen hold Winterfell, and Moat Cailin too. Father's dead, and Bran and Rickon, maybe Arya. And now your father too."

She could not let him despair. She knew the taste of that draught too well herself. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"We share your grief, my lady," said Utherydes Wayn. "All Riverrun mourns with you, but . . ."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catelyn had been so lost in grief for her own that she had almost forgotten the two Freys she had agreed to foster. No more, she thought. Mother have mercy, how many more blows can we bear? 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have suffered much, and there is more peril and more grief ahead. We need to face it boldly, with horns blowing and banners flying bravely. But this rain beats us down. The banners hang limp and sodden, and the men huddle under their cloaks and scarcely speak to one another. Only an evil rain would chill our hearts when most we need them to burn hot."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"but Glover was heedless after he learned that Deepwood Motte had fallen. Grief and fear will do that to a man."

 

 

These are all examples of the reaction the north has had to their events, we see nothing like that from Tywin or the Westerland army over Robb being in the West. In actual fact we do see one Lannister who is genunly devestated, but it has nothing to do with Robb being in the West

 

With one son dead and two more in mortal danger, Ser Kevan was consumed by grief and fear. 

 

Quote

Why would he do that if Robb being in the Westerlands was not devastating to his chances in the war ? 

 

eh? what does this argument have to do with Robb being in the West? This point is equally true if Robb is at the Twins, Seagard, Riverrun or any other fairly close settlement. 

 

Tywin, according to the author, felt that Stannis would be some time in in the Stormlands, enough time according to Tyrion to deal with Robb. Which makes common sense as it would be stupid to be in a position were Robb attacked at the same time as Stannis did. You are ignoring military common sense to justify using hyperbole.. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Tywin, according to the author, felt that Stannis would be some time in in the Stormlands, enough time according to Tyrion to deal with Robb. Which makes common sense as it would be stupid to be in a position were Robb attacked at the same time as Stannis did. You are ignoring military common sense to justify using hyperbole.. 

 

Considering that Tyrion was in Kings Landing and had a pretty good idea that Kings Landing could not hold out against Stannis and that Stannis would more then likely execute him if he took the city kinda makes him a unreliable source on this . Tyrion desperately wanted to believe that Stannis would sit in front of Storms end for many months but he really had no idea what was happening inside or outside the castle so his opinion is just pure desperate speculation .

 

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

How is that evidence of him being devastated. If someone was to say Robb and the northmen were devastated with the loss of Winterfell there is ample evidence in the books to show this

". 

 

So Robb and the Northerners are devastated with a Iron Born army invasion in the North but Tywin and the Westerners are not devastated with a Northern army invasion in the West , why would there be any difference ? don't the Western Lords care about their castles, lands and people as much as the Northern Lords ? that sound like a little bit of hyperbole on your part .   

[Arthur Peres]

On 24/04/2018 at 5:54 PM, Bernie Mac said:

how so? you made up a lot of claims and i asked you to prove them and you have simply ignored them.

Quote

I'm talking about the number of hostages... it's clear that Robb has much more nobles captured that the oposite.

 

On 24/04/2018 at 5:54 PM, Bernie Mac said:

how so? citation for it only being 3K? 

Quote

"Our south camp was under the command of Ser Forley Prester. He retreated in good order when he saw that the other camps were lost, with two thousand spears and as many bowmen, but the Tyroshi sellsword who led his freeriders struck his banners and went over to the foe.”

3k seems to fit it.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Secondly, Tyrion has made it clear that his father only left Harrenhal because he was under the, mistaken, impression that Stannis would be some time at Storm's End. The author himself backs this up, so Tywin leaving Harrenahal is not evidence that he was devastated with Robb raiding in the West.

After Renly's death SE could fall at any moment. Penrose held the castle but he himself offered Stannis trial by combat to resolve the situation, which could still give Stannis the castle in a single day without magic. The garrison could rebel against Penrose and turn to Stannis giving him the castle, Men who serverd under Stannis during Robert's Rebelion could turn sides and open the gates for Stannis army, and soo on...

Acording to the asoaif wikia the siege of SE didn't complete a year during RR, and we know how dire the situation was for them.

Expecting the castle to hold for a year is too much. When Stannis did it he was nearly eating corpses. I doubt that other men would be stuborn enough to do this again.

[Bernie Mac]

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Considering that Tyrion was in Kings Landing and had a pretty good idea that Kings Landing could not hold out against Stannis and that Stannis would more then likely execute him if he took the city kinda makes him a unreliable source on this

i'm sorry, but what? 

Tyrion was under the impression that Stannis would be held at Storm's End for some time

Varys smiled, showing a mouth full of rotted teeth. "Who, my lord? Ser Cortnay or Lord Stannis?"

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

 

it is only after he learns that Stannis has taken the castle (by magic no less) that he starts to worry. How does he contradict himself, what does he say that makes him an unreliable source? 

 

Stannis being expected to take longer to take Storm's End is backed up by the author and Stannis himself, how is Tyrion making that claim unreliable? 

 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tyrion desperately wanted to believe that Stannis would sit in front of Storms end for many months but he really had no idea what was happening inside or outside the castle so his opinion is just pure desperate speculation .

It is not a case of desperate speculation, not when the author himself backs it up

And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. 

and even Stannis points out how long he could be there

 Estermont will favor settling down to starve them out, as Tyrell and Redwyne once tried with me. That might take a year, but old mules are patient.

So Tyrion and Tywin's 'expectation' is not desperate and the fact that the only reason Stannis takes Storm's End is through magic, something neither father or son could have expected, only lies credence to their thought. 

 

Maybe you are confused what the word 'expected' actually means? It does not mean they were certain, but that knowing his character, the importance of Storm's End and how well defended it was that he was expected to be there some time. That is what they expected. 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

So Robb and the Northerners are devastated with a Iron Born army invasion

please read what I actually said rather than react to some preconceived argument that you have in your head. What I actually said was "If someone was to say Robb and the northmen were devastated with the loss of Winterfell there is ample evidence in the books to show this" which is true, there is far more evidence that the Northmen were more concerned with the ironborn in the north than the Westerland men were with Robb being in the West. The many quotes I provided show that. 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

in the North but Tywin and the Westerners are not devastated with a Northern army invasion in the West , why would there be any difference ?

The Western capital was untouched, not enough invaders in the West to even threaten it. Of course there is a difference, can you not see that both situations are not exactly the same and the reactions from the Western and Northern nobles is not the same. I have shown you how the Glovers viewed it, there is zero evidence that Marbrand reacted the same way, infact we see him smiling in Tyrion's opening chapter of ASOS despite the fact that Robb is still in the West. 

 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

don't the Western Lords care about their castles, lands and people as much as the Northern Lords ?

The attacks are not the same, Robb has fewer men and the important Westerland settlements seem to be better defended than their Northern counterparts.  Robb himself admits 

"Did you ever think to ask yourself why we remained in the west so long after Oxcross? You knew I did not have enough men to threaten Lannisport or Casterly Rock."

Their reaction is always going to be different when the stakes are not the same. 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

that sound like a little bit of hyperbole on your part .   

lol that seems a petty way to score points

 

and you seemed to have ignored my questions, I will ask again

 

you state that Tywin was devastated by Robb being in the West, what do do you think his emotional reaction would be to

1. hearing the Robb had his capital and Lannisport under seige
2. hearing that the Ironborn had joined Robb in holding his capital and lannisport under siege
3. hearing that his capital had been captured and was currectly occupied by Robb and the Ironborn? 

 

Are you under the impression that Robb's reaction to hearing his capital captured and his heirs murdered was the same reaction upon hearing that the Ironborn were raiding the North? No, of course not, one would be far more severe than the other.

 

[Bernie Mac]

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I'm talking about the number of hostages... it's clear that Robb has much more nobles captured that the oposite.

No, it is not. I was being conservative and only talking about the North, but when you include the Riverland hostages and casuaties it is far more even, infact there has likely been more Northern/Riverland hostages and deaths in the war of the five kings than Westerland. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

"Our south camp was under the command of Ser Forley Prester. He retreated in good order when he saw that the other camps were lost, with two thousand spears and as many bowmen, but the Tyroshi sellsword who led his freeriders struck his banners and went over to the foe.”

3k seems to fit it.

then your math is pretty bad, two lots of 2k equals 4k and that does not include the garrison of the other castles or the host that Stafford raises and Daven has afterwards. 

In fact lets look at this time wise, it takes months for Rodrik to raise just under 2k and this host is from the entire North, while Stafford has a much shorter time to raise his host and it is all from the Lannisport region. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

After Renly's death SE could fall at any moment.

Not at any moment, it only falls so soon because Stannis resorts to using magic. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Penrose held the castle but he himself offered Stannis trial by combat to resolve the situation, which could still give Stannis the castle in a single day without magic.

It could have done, perhaps, like Stannis' use of magic, this was also unexpected by everyone else after all that is not the normal way sieges are dealt with, the Blackfish laughs when such an offer is made to him and I don't recall any other times a siege was resolved in such a manner.  

Going by the words of the author, Tyrion and Stannis himself he was expected to be there much longer. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

The garrison could rebel against Penrose and turn to Stannis giving him the castle,

They could of, no one is denying that. Do people really not know what 'expected' means? Expected does not mean there is only one possible outcome, that no other alternatives exist, it means knowing Stannis' character and the importance of Storm's End as well as its strength it was expected to hold out longer. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Men who serverd under Stannis during Robert's Rebelion could turn sides and open the gates for Stannis army, and soo on...

Did they? Why does Stannis not mention this? He seems to have no cordial relationship with Penrose. 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Acording to the asoaif wikia the siege of SE didn't complete a year during RR, and we know how dire the situation was for them.

According to the Stannis it could hold out for a year

Estermont will favor settling down to starve them out, as Tyrell and Redwyne once tried with me. That might take a year, but old mules are patient

which is backed up by the author

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside.

and finally we are told that Stannis held it for close to a year in the books

Maester Cressen remembered the day Davos had been knighted, after the siege of Storm's End. Lord Stannis and a small garrison had held the castle for close to a year

 

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Expecting the castle to hold for a year is too much. When Stannis did it he was nearly eating corpses. I doubt that other men would be stuborn enough to do this again.

Who claimed a year, Tyrion claims only half. At no point have I claimed it would take a year. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

i'm sorry, but what? 

Tyrion was under the impression that Stannis would be held at Storm's End for some time

 

he hoped he would be held there for some time but he really had no idea what was happening at Storms End . The defenders could surrender the castle at any time after all it was the Baratheon's castle and Stannis was the last Baratheon or Stannis could lift the siege whenever he wanted and head to Kings Landing and once he found out that Tywin was fighting Robb in the West he may decide that it was the best time to attack , Tyrion really had no idea what was happening at Storms End but he was desperately hoping that the siege would last for months because he was in trouble if it did not. 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

. 

lol that seems a petty way to score points

 

 sorry i could not resist 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Maybe you are confused what the word 'expected' actually means? It does not mean they were certain, but that knowing his character, the importance of Storm's End and how well defended it was that he was expected to be there some time. That is what they expected. 

 

i'm not confused about anything . Tywin expected and hoped that Stannis would be at Storms End  for months but really had no idea what exactly was happening there and he made a desperate attempt to get to the West and destroy Robb and make a desperate rush back to the Crownlands to be there before Stannis took Kings Landing , seems pretty clear to me , i'm not sure what so confusing for you . 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

The Westerrn capital was untouched, not enough invaders in the West to even threaten it. Of course there is a difference, can you not see that both situations are not exactly the same and the reactions from the Western and Northern nobles is not the same. I have shown you how the Glovers viewed it, there is zero evidence that Marbrand reacted the same way, infact we see him smiling in Tyrion's opening chapter of ASOS despite the fact that Robb is still in the West. 

 

 You keep stating that the evidence is in the books that the Robb was devastated that the Iron Born are in the North but there no evidence that Tywin is devastated by the Northmen in the Westerlands but the fact that Tywin tries to go West through enemy territory while an army threatens Kings Landing is all the evidence you need , it's right in the books .

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Are you under the impression that Robb's reaction to hearing his capital captured and his heirs murdered was the same reaction upon hearing that the Ironborn were raiding the North? No, of course not, one would be far more severe than the other.

 

two events can be different in how extreme they are but both be devastating. If my house burned down it would be devastating and if my house burned down with my dog inside i would have a worse reaction but they would both still be devastating . 

[Bernie Mac]

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

he hoped he would hold out for some time but he really had no idea what was happening at Storms End .

I have not stated anything different, have I? All I have claimed, because of what the author has said in interviews and the information we have from the books, is that the available information on Stannis and Storm's End suggested he would be there longer.

No one has claimed this was 100% certain, no one has claimed Tyrion was psychic but that Stannis was expected to be there for longer. I am genuinely confused what your issue is here? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

The defenders could surrender the castle at any time after all it was the Baratheon's castle

Of course they could. No one has claimed differently but the expectation was that it would hold out for longer. That was the expectation. 

The same is true of Winterfell, Riverrun or any major castle. They are always expected to hold out for longer than days or weeks. that is their entire purpose.

Are you really arguing that the strongest castles in the realm, which we have been told Storm's End, should not be expexted to last long when under siege? What exactly are you arguing here? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and Stannis was the last Baratheon or Stannis could lift the siege whenever he wanted and head to Kings Landing

again, no one is claiming that was not a possibility but that the expectation was that he would not abandon it. Stannis himself mentions why he would never simply just abandon it

 "He makes me wish I had more smugglers in my service. And fewer lords. Though you are wrong in one respect, Davos. There is a need. If I leave Storm's End untaken in my rear, it will be said I was defeated here. And that I cannot permit. Men do not love me as they loved my brothers. They follow me because they fear me . . . and defeat is death to fear. The castle must fall." 

and the author points out that Stannis' personality was well known enough that he was expected to retake Storm's End before leaving

 And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor.

 

Why do you have such issues with the authors own opinion on his own fictional characters? Surely his opinion trumps yours when it comes to this matter? 

 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

and once he found out that Tywin was fighting Robb in the West he may decide that it was the best time to attack ,

Certainly a possibility. Having an expectation does not rule out all other possibilities. But according to both the author and Stannis himself the above was not expected.--to clarify this does not mean him doing so was impossible but that it was not expected, what was expected was him remaining there till it was taken

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tyrion really had no idea what was happening at Storms End but he was desperately hoping that the siege would last for months because he was in trouble if it did not. 

it was not desperate, it was a calculated guess based on

• the well known strength of Storm's end
• the well known personality of Stannis Baratheon

the author confirms this and the very fact that the only reason he does not take longer is that he uses an unexpected advanatge -MAGIC- confirms this. 

you seem to be confused on what the word expected means. 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

i'm not confused about anything .

Then what are you arguing about? 

Why do you not understand what expected means? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Tywin expected and hoped that Stannis would be at Storms End  for months

Exactly, that is what i said. that is all I said, why the fuck has the argument been going on weeks and multiple pages when that is all I stated, they expected him to be there longer. What are you arguing about? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

but really had no idea what exactly was happening there

no one has claimed that he had spies there, that he had a magical crystal ball or CCTV. Of course he could not know exactly what was happening there, at no point in these 7 pages of back and forth have I claimed that he did know exactly what was going on. What he did know was that

1. the castle was under siege
2. that Storm's End is one of the strongest castles in the realm
3. that Stannis would be determined to capture it

With that knowledge the expectation was that it last longer that it did. that is what was expected. 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and he made a desperate attempt to get to the West and destroy Robb and make a desperate rush back to the Crownlands to be there before Stannis took Kings Landing ,

yep, who has claimed any different? they expected to have enough time to deal with Robb before Stannis could march

again, I have to say what is your argument here? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

seems pretty clear to me , i'm not sure what so confusing for you . 

the constant replies. 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

 You keep stating that the evidence is in the books that the Robb was devastated

Please learn to read, I have not said that Robb was devastated I pointed out that if someone was to make such an argument there is far more corroborating evidence than what you have submitted in your hyperbolic reasoning that Tywin was devastated by Robb's presence in the West. 

Where is your evidence that Tywin and the Westerland lords were devastated? if they were so devastated why do they choose to sit and do nothing at Kings Landing while Robb is still in the West? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

that the Iron Born are in the North but there no evidence that Tywin is devastated by the Northmen in the Westerlands but the fact that Tywin tries to go West through enemy territory

which route do you think he should have taken? he was currently in the riverlands, that is enemy territory. was he supposed to teleport to the West, invent the plane and fly there? 

how is this evidence that he was devastated? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

while an army threatens Kings Landing is all the evidence you need , it's right in the books .

an army, we are told, was expected to be held at Storm's End for some time.

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

two events can be different in how extreme they are but both be devastating.

two events, I gave you three and you still not have answered the question. I will ask it again

you state that Tywin was devastated by Robb being in the West, what do do you think his emotional reaction would be to

1. hearing the Robb had his capital and Lannisport under seige
2. hearing that the Ironborn had joined Robb in holding his capital and lannisport under siege
3. hearing that his capital had been captured and was currently occupied by Robb and the Ironborn?

 

I will also ask a follow up, when Robb heard that the Northern coast was being raided was this devastating news for him? 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

If my house burned down it would be devastating and if my house burned down with my dog inside i would have a worse reaction but they would both be devastating . 

Tywin's house is untouched, it is even pointed out by Robb that he did not have enough matches or lighter fluid to even threaten starting Tywin's house on fire. Pretty poor analogy. 

[Arthur Peres]

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

then your math is pretty bad, two lots of 2k equals 4k and that does not include the garrison of the other castles or the host that Stafford raises and Daven has afterwards. 

In fact lets look at this time wise, it takes months for Rodrik to raise just under 2k and this host is from the entire North, while Stafford has a much shorter time to raise his host and it is all from the Lannisport region.

4k at best... his army was retreating in a hostile land as fast as he could after suffering a massive defeat. You have to count deserters, men left behind, lost to the BwB and so on. If he had 4k he could have challenge Robb in the field but we know that he couldn't.

I've already counted Oxcross, so Stafford's host is already destroyed, and his host already is  "sweepings of Lannisport". 

The Reach has the biggest army and acording to LF Margeary brings 50k swords to the fold

Littlefinger agreed. “The Stark girl brings Joffrey nothing but her body, sweet as that may be. Margaery Tyrell brings fifty thousand swords and all the strength of Highgarden.”

Tywin already draw 35k in the start of the war not counting Stafford host. How much men power do you honest think Tywin has?

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not at any moment, it only falls so soon because Stannis resorts to using magic. 

As I've already pointed out Penrose himself offered single combat to resolve the situation. The fact that similar offer is also made to Blackfish just prove that it could have been done.

But just to resolve this situation. After Renly dies, to who does the garison of SE owns they alligiance? If you belive the awnser is Joffrey there is still a matter of question about how long they would hold up, but if you say Stannis then the fact that SE even opose him for a day already is out of the ordinary.

My anwser to this is Stannis. The reasons being

1- We don't know if Joffrey even went to SE during his lifetime, Stannis grow up there and defended it.

2- Joffrey parantage are being contested, Stannis is a true Baratheon with no doubt about it.

3- They already rebelled against Joffrey siding with Renly, supporting Stannis is the next move.

4- Stannis is closer to them and at this point stronger than Joffrey.

[Bernie Mac]

38 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

4k at best...

is still around 4k, just from the men available from Jaime's army, that does not include the garrisons and soldiers from the rest of the Westerlands. 

38 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

his army was retreating in a hostile land as fast as he could after suffering a massive defeat. You have to count deserters, men left behind, lost to the BwB and so on.

the BWB barely existed back then. and they were seemingly engaged in the Riverlandss, not the Westerlands. 

it is 4k until you can prove otherwise. 

38 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

If he had 4k he could have challenge Robb in the field but we know that he couldn't.

Robb was horsed and was not exactly announcing his position. Come on man, use some common sense. Sending out troops for the sake of it with no planning is idiotic. 

38 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I've already counted Oxcross, so Stafford's host is already destroyed,

Not entirely

 He went on to tell how the remnants of Ser Stafford's host had fallen back on Lannisport. 

38 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

and his host already is  "sweepings of Lannisport". 

yes, just from Lannissport. The Westerlands being a pretty big place means there are others. Stafford was in a rush. Though it seems going by Robb's words he still managed to leave Lannisport well defended. 

 

47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

The Reach has the biggest army and acording to LF Margeary brings 50k swords to the fold

Littlefinger agreed. “The Stark girl brings Joffrey nothing but her body, sweet as that may be. Margaery Tyrell brings fifty thousand swords and all the strength of Highgarden.”

The Reach can clearly raise more than 50k, that is quite the conservative number. 

47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin already draw 35k in the start of the war not counting Stafford host. How much men power do you honest think Tywin has?

Depends on what you are asking. I doubt he could have risked raising another significant host to leave the Westerlands, that would be folly, but that does not mean the West was bereft of soldiers. Settlements would be well garrisoned especially the richer ones or the settlements close to the borders. 

53 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

As I've already pointed out Penrose himself offered single combat to resolve the situation. The fact that similar offer is also made to Blackfish just prove that it could have been done.

Name a single occasion when a castle has been taken by single combat? Something being possible does not mean it is likely. We have heard of a lot of castles being captured throughout both the series and the accompanying novellas and not once has a castle been taken by single combat. 

It is possible that the Blackfish could carve a giant wooden Mongoose, hide all his warriors in it and be brought inside only to take a castle that way, its possible its just not very likely. 

53 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

But just to resolve this situation. After Renly dies, to who does the garison of SE owns they alligiance?

Probably not to the person who is responsible for his murder. 

53 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

My anwser to this is Stannis. The reasons being

Right,  but you are not Penrose, he publicly refused to give up to Stannis and sent ravens to all other factions 

"Nothing from Bitterbridge. From Storm's End, three birds from the castellan, Ser Cortnay Penrose, all carrying the same plea. Stannis has him surrounded by land and sea. He offers his allegiance to whatsoever king will break the siege. He fears for the boy, he says. What boy would that be, do you know?"

Now you might not like this. but it seems that Penrose was for anyone but Stannis. That is the information others are going on.