Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south

[Rufus Snow]

2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Why wouldn't they do it that way ? 

Because they're supposed to serve their lords.

Whatever you may think is more 'efficient' or 'better' is not the point. Martin has written a raven service that is a point to point messaging service, not a broadcast news service.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 minute ago, Rufus Snow said:

Because they're supposed to serve their lords.

Whatever you may think is more 'efficient' or 'better' is not the point. Martin has written a raven service that is a point to point messaging service, not a broadcast news service.

wouldn't serving their lords also apply to keeping their Lords appraised of news and events happening in Westeros and Essos ? 

 

[Rufus Snow]

2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

wouldn't serving their lords also apply to keeping their Lords appraised of news and events happening in Westeros and Essos ? 

 

Yes, and have you noticed how every time a maester runs into the room waving a message freshly off a raven, it is ALWAYS from someone who made a point to send it?

[Blackfish Tully]

1 minute ago, Rufus Snow said:

Yes, and have you noticed how every time a maester runs into the room waving a message freshly off a raven, it is ALWAYS from someone who made a point to send it?

we are only seeing a small part of what's going on in the books . A Maester receiving a letter with the general news of the day would not be significant enough for a POV character to be told of it in the book , it would happen off screen . Think of it this way , every Lord Paramount would want to hear any news that happening that may affect his kingdom so he would he would make sure his bannermen have a responsibility to send him any news that's significant and he would make sure his bannermen also are kept in the loop on any significant events . Also the Lord Paramount would want to know about anything happening in Westeros or Essos so he would have his Maester  constantly gathering news that could affect his kingdoms security or the kingdoms business interests . nobody wants to be in the dark and since they have this raven system that would work perfect for keeping everybody informed it would be just weird not to use it that way . 

[Rufus Snow]

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

we are only seeing a small part of what's going on in the books . A Maester receiving a letter with the general news of the day would not be significant enough for a POV character to be told of it in the book , it would happen off screen .

They often don't go 'off screen' to take a piss, why hide reading the news if that ever happened???

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Think of it this way , every Lord Paramount would want to hear any news that happening that may affect his kingdom so he would he would make sure his bannermen have a responsibility to send him any news that's significant and he would make sure his bannermen also are kept in the loop on any significant events . Also the Lord Paramount would want to know about anything happening in Westeros or Essos so he would have his Maester  constantly gathering news that could affect his kingdoms security or the kingdoms business interests . nobody wants to be in the dark and since they have this raven system that would work perfect for keeping everybody informed it would be just weird not to use it that way . 

I'm sorry, this is just pure fanfic. It never happens in the books because it conflicts with what we are told does happen in the books. There is no 'Wall Street Raven', or 'Daily Ravengraph', or 'National Ravenographic'. Much as you might like it, this simply would not serve the needs of the characters in the story.

Nobody wants information to be generally available - they all want to have as much of a lead over everyone else as possible. Information is a weapon. You don't spread it around freely for your enemies (even your allies, for that matter) to pick up. Knowing one little thing your enemy doesn't could swing a battle, a war even. You only tell people what you want them to know, not necessarily what you think they may want to know.

 

[Bernie Mac]

51 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Yes, and have you noticed how every time a maester runs into the room waving a message freshly off a raven, it is ALWAYS from someone who made a point to send it?

We only have to look at the confusion of when Ned was arrested

That was the one thing they could agree on, Bran and Rickon and Robb the Lord; they all wished Father was here. But Lord Eddard was a thousand leagues away, a captive in some dungeon, a hunted fugitive running for his life, or even dead. No one seemed to know for certain; every traveler told a different tale, each more terrifying than the last. The heads of Father's guardsmen were rotting on the walls of the Red Keep, impaled on spikes. King Robert was dead at Father's hands. The Baratheons had laid siege to King's Landing. Lord Eddard had fled south with the king's wicked brother Renly. Arya and Sansa had been murdered by the Hound. Mother had killed Tyrion the Imp and hung his body from the walls of Riverrun. Lord Tywin Lannister was marching on the Eyrie, burning and slaughtering as he went. One wine-sodden taleteller even claimed that Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the dead and was marshaling a vast host of ancient heroes on Dragonstone to reclaim his father's throne.

Unless a trustworthy source is informing someone of what happened it is impossible to know. Just look at all the theories about Loras and Dragonstone, If Cersei can not be sure of what happened with her own army a hundred miles away then Stannis receiving an accurate report of what is happening from his enemies 2-3 thousand miles away is a leap. 

 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I would think that the Iron Born attacking the Reach would be common knowledge by this time

The Ironborn were raiding the Northern coast pretty early in ACOK, it was some time later that the realm discovered how serious it was. 

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and the Golden Company attacking the Stormlands would be something that would get around pretty quickly as well 

It has not reached either the North or the Vale in ADWD or the sample chapters of TWOW. 

 

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The Mountain Clans are entirely pragmatic? did you even read the quote ?

Yes and unlike you I went on to read other quotes by him to see how informed he actually is. 

 

You northmen brought these snows upon us. You and your demon trees. R'hllor will save us.

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That was the night that Asha first heard the queen's men muttering about a sacrifice—an offering to their red god, so he might end the storm. "The gods of the north have unleashed this storm on us," Ser Corliss Penny said.

He is not the most rational thinker, the Clan members seem far more rational than  a man who wants to make human sacrifices because he thinks it will change the weather. 

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Let me ask you a question . If Stannis defeats the Boltons and Freys and takes Winterfell do you think there is no chance that he may decide that while he's on a roll he might decide to go south and see if he can find some allies to help him against the Others ? 

It is too far away and once he learns that Jon is dead and the Wall in disarray he is going to have to prioritize the safety of the realm.  

[Tagganaro]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

All that indicates that there is no 'grand plan' nor a grand conspiracy involving many and more Northmen. Robett and Wyman are plotting. Bot not the entire North. 

I think @Free Northman Reborn's post pretty much covers it, but there are far more indications that far more Lords than Robett and Wyman are plotting or involved in some kind of conspiracy.  The Mormonts stick out as an obvious one, because again it's a thing where Jon specifically notes it being weird that Lyanna is writing back to Stannis, and we see Mormonts basically all over the place (with Stannis, in the Neck, etc.).  We know the Umbers are involved too in some kind of plot against Bolton.  Again I will say that of the majority of Lords who are fleshed out in ADWD, there is some indication given that they are plotting or at least there is a reason to suspect motives or question the circumstances.

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Possibly so that somebody can tell Jon or anyone eventually that Brandon Stark is not dead. Aside from that, the scene likely doesn't have any purpose. And just to be clear - at this point we do not know that the Liddle seeing the gang did share that knowledge with anyone. If he had, it is very, very odd that none of the clansmen told Stannis or Jon Snow about that.

Yeah, I mean it's entirely possible that Liddle hasn't told anybody and that scene served little purpose beyond Bran being grateful to that man.  But yes, mileage may vary depending on how much you buy into the GNC, I see that scene serving a lot of purpose in showing that the Liddles and likely more of the clans know Bran is alive, and confirming that they are keeping stuff from Stannis.

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And right now the only guys apparently believing in that thing are Barbrey Dustin and Roose Bolton - not Wyman Manderly. He never refers to Rickon as his king. He calls him his liege.

Believing in what?  a King in the North/Northern independence?  Assuming the Greatjon survives and that the Umbers would follow, we can guess they believe in it.  Mormont obviously believes in it.  Yes, good point about Manderley/Glover, but they seem to be isolated in that respect.  I would guess anyone loyal to Robb who has access to his will believes in it.

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I don't think the Targaryens or the Starks are much different from any of the prestigious (former royal) houses in this regard. We hear how fervently loyal the Stormlanders are to the Baratheons, and it is seems pretty clear that Arryns, Lannisters, and Hightowers are equally well established. Even the Darry people seem to have issues with an outsider being the Lord of Darry, etc.

Well I mean the Baratheon's claim to kingship kind of relies on their Targ blood no?  But I can agree that Arryns and Lannisters also have their own royal lineage.  

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I'd say it would depend on the incentive. If you intend to die gloriously in battle and you survive you just continue on. These people do not, actually, fight for some patriotic reason. If Stannis were to phrase his southern campaign as a continuation of the butchery they might do at Winterfell they might be very inclined to oblige him in that. Why shouldn't they. I mean - honestly: What is your argument against the point that they don't want to return home? If they want do die and, say, don't care or believe in the Others then going down south to avenge King Robb some more and help the guy who helped them take Winterfell from the Boltons to win his throne could be a nice idea.

Well my main argument against is that after the Battle of Winterfell, etc., I kind of expect the Others to become more apparent as an enemy.  And Stannis/everyone else will have their choices to make with respect to that.  But yes, so far I'd say the Northmen following Stannis are behaving in ways that benefit them specifically and the North in general- they took back Deepwood from the Ironborn an then persuaded Stannis to march to Winterfell to "rescue the Ned's little girl."  Again, I think perhaps they could be talked into an assault on the Twins but no, I just still don't see them agreeing to march that far South to put a non-Northman on a Throne that they don't really seem to care about (nor should they).  

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I think his fear there had more to do with the prospect of fighting breaking out within Winterfell. That could take a very bad turn and result in gates being opened or destroyed, the enemy being invited, men refusing to fight, defecting to the enemy, etc. He cannot have that.

And I'm with you that Roose is going to look very bad with 'Arya' being abducted. But I don't think it is going to affect the core troops of his men all that much. With the Freys and the Manderlys out of the castle, the remaining potential traitors should be easily be dealt with, no? Hother's old men won't stand a chance if the veterans of the Red Wedding put down some more, no?

 

Well, I mean Boltons core troops are his men right?  So obviously that won't really affect them.  But Dustin, Stout, Cerwyn, etc...I think these are people whose loyalty is meant to be questioned and we could see them wreaking havoc inside Winterfell while you have Stannis forces on the outside.

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There is no indication that Westeros is similar to our world in this world. There have been very few religious wars in Westeros.

There is no indication that Northmen would be entirely fine with the stuff Stannis/Melisandre have done or could do.  We see how Jon reacts to a lot of this, we hear him warn Melisandre of not pulling her shit with the clansmen because they won't have it, etc.  Considering that religion is consistenly brought up with regards to Stannis I think there is conflict being set up there.  

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There is the Greatjon, Harrion Karstark, and Wylis Manderly. There are no other major hostages from the North that are mentioned, no? No Cerwyns, no Tallharts, no Glovers, no Flints, Lockes, Dustins, Ryswells, Mormonts, etc. There are many imprisoned Riverlanders, to be sure, but not so many Northmen.

Ok, that's still major because you have 3 of the most powerful Norrthern houses covered there no?  And we know that the having of these hostages has in some way stifled or directed these houses actions.

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It is not just that. It is the absence of any plotting besides the obvious plotting (Wyman/Robett; Roose/Arnolf) in addition to the fact that there was no action in times when men who can plot could also have taken some action.

Those very important hints that nothing important is going on there behind the scenes. In addition, the way the Northmen react after Stannis and Roose demand that they choose a side implies that they do react when a powerful outsider or a man with strong authority actually demand that they do things.

Oh, they will have some Stark as their liege lord again, alright. Just not as king. They did accept all the Targaryen kings as well as one Baratheon king who happens to be Stannis' older brother, no?

 

Again we disagree on the "obvious plotting" point.  The Mormonts, Umbers, whatever is going on with Robb's will, and yes even the clansmen stick out as potential plotters.  Specific reference is made to plotting/weird scenarios by the Mormonts and Umbers.  Jon specifically notes how strange it is for those guys to randomly show up at the Wall for a wedding and to bring a wet nurse.

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Jon did reject Stannis' offer to make him Lord of Winterfell in part because of the burning of the godswood thing. But that was just one caveat, the other was that he knows, deep down, that he doesn't have a right to Winterfell. That Sansa and Arya come before him. He did not react completely aghast at Stannis' demand that he burn the godswood, no? It wasn't unthinkable to him, or something that earned Stannis the undying enmity of Jon Snow.

I'd say the burning of the godswood was the biggest and really sole "caveat" and reason Jon rejected Stannis's offer.  "The weirwood was the heart of Winterfell, Lord Eddard always said...but to save the castle Jon would have to tear that heart up by its ancient roots...Winterfell belongs to the old gods."  Then later on Jon seriously thinks about accepting the offer, not once even thinking of Arya or Sansa.  Then Ghost returns and Jon notices his weirwood eyes, like a heart tree.  "He had his answer then."

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That is a strange question in this context. 'Arya' came to the camp in the last ADwD chapter. In Theon 1 she and Theon are there for quite some time. If the clansmen thought 'the war was over' they would have already left or were leaving in Theon 1, no?

I have some but very limited knowledge of the "spoiler" chapters, which are always subject to change I would imagine?  But no, "the war isn't over" at least certainly not until the Boltons are kicked out of Winterfell.  Then we will see.

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It seems pretty clear that the clansmen do want to fight the Boltons and the Freys.

Yes they do.  I don't disagree on that.

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I'm still curious - what would be your reasoning as to why they would not want to punish the Freys and the Lannisters? I mean, even Jon Snow makes clear in ADwD that he wants to bring death and destruction over House Lannister. This is a serious issue for him as well as many who lost loved ones and family at the Twins or to the Lannisters in general.

Do we think Jon Snow wouldn't lead an army to KL or Casterly Rock or the Twins to kill them all if he could? I think the way he reacted to the Pink Letter to show that he would.

 

I think he'd love to but I also think that the Others will emerge as the true enemy and Jon would realize there ain't enough time for that shit.  I don't doubt that afterwards, had the Others been defeated and the Freys were still alive, that Jon and every other Northern Lord wouldn't make it their mission to destroy every last Frey.  But I don't think that will really be an issue- it seems like Stoneheart/the Riverlands might deal with the Freys first.  

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I think the possibility exists, of course. I just don't find it very likely. In fact, I'd think it is about as likely as the idea that Jon is going to channel his paternal grandfather after his resurrection (with the Ides of Marsh serving as Jon's Duskendale).

We disagree on that, as we have different takes on Stannis.  I think both our takes are reasonable so nothing against that opinion.  I just find Stannis to be more of a tragic character, I've always read him as someone who will "break" before he "bends" per Donal Noye's description and I don't see him having a heroic ending.  I think GRRM could obviously go either way with that.

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I think we have already more than ample confirmation that he will do exactly that. Not just because he wants to continue the war effort up there but because he will have to restore order up there after Jon's assassination and ensure his wife, daughter, and paramour are fine.

He might still send some men down south but more to spread the news of his victory and to convince others to join him or to assist him in the defense of the Wall. And, sure, a strong contingent should take possession of Moat Cailin and fortify it against any attacks from the south.

 

I agree with this.  Like I said earlier, you convinced me and the rereading of that convinced me.

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One can see a transition there, though. The Stannis who arrived in the North is not the same man we see in the village in Theon 1. The wildlings just had to burn a little wood. They did not burn weirwood trees.

And who knows what's going to happen if Brandon Stark actually speaks to Stannis on the island through the weirwood tree? It is very likely that this is going to happen.

 

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but every bit of info we have says the wildlings were forced to burn branches of weirwood trees which they are still bitter about.  Jon notes this when he goes to Mole's Town to recruit and they are never described as anything but weirwood branches.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  

Again I really don't know enough about the 'spoiler' chapters to comment on this.  

15 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Northern conspiracy:

We know Manderly and Glover are plotting. We know the Mormonts are plotting, as Lyanna has been in contact with Maege, who knows about Robb’s will.

We strongly suspect Maege is hiding in the Neck at the moment, meaning Howland is in on the plot too.

Manderly flat out states that the Flints of Widow’s Watch and the Lockes of Oldcastle are under his control, so you can add them to the conspiracy too.

So at the very least these are the likely active plotters.

Then you have the Cerwyns who are fierce Stark loyalists, who will either be part of the plot already, or who would join it in a heartbeat once it is revealed to them.

Should the crannogmen under Howland and Maege’s leadership stage a special forces type rescue of the northern hostages at the Twins we will have the Greatjon back, and there is zero doubt where his loyalties lie. That would bring the Umbers into the conspiracy too, and it is likely already the plan, with Mors and Hother just buying time much like Wyman did until his son was released.

That leaves the Karstarks, who under Alys is already loyal to Jon, and the Mountain Clans and Glovers, who are already on the march with Stannis in memory of Eddard.

Basically, only the Ryswells and Dustins remain with Roose, and I highly doubt George has fleshed them out so much in recent books only to have them be wiped out in service of the doomed Roose.

They are either going to switch sides out of convenience, or Barbary is faking it and is part of the conspiracy already.

And that leaves out Rickon who is soon to return with a host of wild Skagosi in tow.

The conspiracy is real. The extent of it is unknown, but the catalyst will be the freeing of the hostages in the Riverlands - likely early in the next book. Then all hell will break loose in the North and the dominoes will fall swiftly, with the Stark loyalists taking back the North.

Couldn't say it better myself.  The conspiracy is real.

[Lord Varys]

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We know the Mormonts are plotting, as Lyanna has been in contact with Maege, who knows about Robb’s will.

There is no indication that Lyanna Mormont had been in contact with her mother. She just wrote a letter to Stannis not acknowledging the fact that Robb Stark is dead.

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We strongly suspect Maege is hiding in the Neck at the moment, meaning Howland is in on the plot too.

Since there are no ravens in the Neck there is no reason to believe Maege and Galbart did contact anyone from there at this point.

The man to contact about Robb Stark's will would have been Jon Snow - and that immediately after Robb Stark's death, not some Northmen who have are not named in that will.

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Manderly flat out states that the Flints of Widow’s Watch and the Lockes of Oldcastle are under his control, so you can add them to the conspiracy too.

LOL, no. That just means that these people will follow Lord Wyman's lead. It doesn't mean they do conspire, it just means that they see White Harbor as the great power in their region and follow the lead of its lord.

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Then you have the Cerwyns who are fierce Stark loyalists, who will either be part of the plot already, or who would join it in a heartbeat once it is revealed to them.

The only Cerwyn alive is the daughter. She is likely going to do nothing.

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Should the crannogmen under Howland and Maege’s leadership stage a special forces type rescue of the northern hostages at the Twins we will have the Greatjon back, and there is zero doubt where his loyalties lie. That would bring the Umbers into the conspiracy too, and it is likely already the plan, with Mors and Hother just buying time much like Wyman did until his son was released.

Sounds like fan fiction to me, considering that Catelyn and her people are likely going to free those hostages who should right now already on the way to KL.

Hother changing allegiances again after his nephew is freed isn't a conspiracy.

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Basically, only the Ryswells and Dustins remain with Roose, and I highly doubt George has fleshed them out so much in recent books only to have them be wiped out in service of the doomed Roose.

They are either going to switch sides out of convenience, or Barbary is faking it and is part of the conspiracy already.

Only Barbrey was flashed out as a character. The Ryswells just get name-dropped. They are not characters.

The only real conspiracy in the North we have evidence for is the Bolton-Karstark conspiracy - and that one is not likely to go anywhere.

Plot-wise there is also no need for a conspiracy there. People all throw their dices and look how things go - nobody really likes the Boltons. Once they look weak the lords will desert or defect to Stannis. And if Stannis dies they will have to look for somebody else. 

The conspiracy theory thing over-explains a rather simple setup. Just as all the other conspiracy theories that disappeared into nothingness when the next book came out.

The real conspiracies are based on actual evidence - like the Bolton-Karstark conspiracy, or the Red Wedding conspiracy.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I think @Free Northman Reborn's post pretty much covers it, but there are far more indications that far more Lords than Robett and Wyman are plotting or involved in some kind of conspiracy.  The Mormonts stick out as an obvious one, because again it's a thing where Jon specifically notes it being weird that Lyanna is writing back to Stannis, and we see Mormonts basically all over the place (with Stannis, in the Neck, etc.). 

Actually, I never saw that letter as anything else but as a little girl being defiant.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We know the Umbers are involved too in some kind of plot against Bolton.  Again I will say that of the majority of Lords who are fleshed out in ADWD, there is some indication given that they are plotting or at least there is a reason to suspect motives or question the circumstances.

The Umbers are basically playing both sides. I'm pretty sure a man like Hother Umber is not going to turn against Roose if he thinks the guy is going to win. The Umbers ensure their house survives because they fight on both sides.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Believing in what?  a King in the North/Northern independence?  Assuming the Greatjon survives and that the Umbers would follow, we can guess they believe in it.  Mormont obviously believes in it.  Yes, good point about Manderley/Glover, but they seem to be isolated in that respect.  I would guess anyone loyal to Robb who has access to his will believes in it.

Robb was a true Stark. A man who could lead and rule. Brandon Stark is a cripple the North is never going to follow (unless he plays the role of an 'old god'), and Rickon Stark is still a child. Making a child king in this scenario, while there are enemies everywhere, would simply be suicidal - even they could settle on a proper regency government for the child king.

The idea that the Greatjon is going to do with/for Rickon Stark the same thing he did for Robb is very unlikely in my opinion. If Greywind hadn't saved Robb the Greatjon may have killed him in his own hall - or he may have forced Robb to take his head because it was indeed treason what the man did there.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Well I mean the Baratheon's claim to kingship kind of relies on their Targ blood no?  But I can agree that Arryns and Lannisters also have their own royal lineage.  

I meant their claim to Storm's End. Think of how Connington reflects on the popularity of the Baratheons in the Stormlands.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Well my main argument against is that after the Battle of Winterfell, etc., I kind of expect the Others to become more apparent as an enemy.  And Stannis/everyone else will have their choices to make with respect to that.  But yes, so far I'd say the Northmen following Stannis are behaving in ways that benefit them specifically and the North in general- they took back Deepwood from the Ironborn an then persuaded Stannis to march to Winterfell to "rescue the Ned's little girl."  Again, I think perhaps they could be talked into an assault on the Twins but no, I just still don't see them agreeing to march that far South to put a non-Northman on a Throne that they don't really seem to care about (nor should they).  

And what if Stannis promises those men gold and lands and places at court and marriages with highborn ladies, etc.? Do you think they don't care about that? Don't you think the Manderlys would like their old lands and seats back? The King on the Iron Throne can grant you favors a King in the North never could.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Well, I mean Boltons core troops are his men right?  So obviously that won't really affect them.  But Dustin, Stout, Cerwyn, etc...I think these are people whose loyalty is meant to be questioned and we could see them wreaking havoc inside Winterfell while you have Stannis forces on the outside.

I think I've shown that Roose's core forces - the men who returned with him from the Twins - greatly outnumber the pitiful forces the Umbers, Tallharts, Cerwyns, Hornwoods, etc. brought to Winterfell. Even Lady Dustin's force pale in light of that. And I think the men complicit in the Red Wedding - the men actually butchering their fellow Northmen and Riverlander allies - will think very, very hard before they abandon the Bolton ship.

Or do you think they can expect any mercy from their countrymen when Roose and Ramsay are dealt with? I don't think so. And they actually should not get any mercy. They should all hang from the battlements of Winterfell. And if Stannis wins we might see that happen. He is not going to pardon any of them.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

There is no indication that Northmen would be entirely fine with the stuff Stannis/Melisandre have done or could do.  We see how Jon reacts to a lot of this, we hear him warn Melisandre of not pulling her shit with the clansmen because they won't have it, etc.  Considering that religion is consistenly brought up with regards to Stannis I think there is conflict being set up there.

Religion certainly is an issue. But the Northmen don't care what Stannis Baratheon did on Dragonstone or at Storm's End. If they start interfere with their religion in the North there will be trouble, sure.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Ok, that's still major because you have 3 of the most powerful Norrthern houses covered there no?  And we know that the having of these hostages has in some way stifled or directed these houses actions.

Yes, but the point I was making is that there are other houses who did exactly nothing when the Ironborn invaded - and continued to do nothing after the Red Wedding. Men whose hands are not tied by hostages could have done something, no?

Them doing nothing shows that the Northmen actually need strong leadership to actually do major things. They do not work together collectively when there is no clear leader keeping them in their place and establish a clear hierarchy.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Jon specifically notes how strange it is for those guys to randomly show up at the Wall for a wedding and to bring a wet nurse.

It seems pretty obvious to me that this is an outgrowth of Stannis' alliance with the clansmen. They have chosen a king and now they are helping the Lord Commander who helped to bring that alliance about.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I think he'd love to but I also think that the Others will emerge as the true enemy and Jon would realize there ain't enough time for that shit.  I don't doubt that afterwards, had the Others been defeated and the Freys were still alive, that Jon and every other Northern Lord wouldn't make it their mission to destroy every last Frey.  But I don't think that will really be an issue- it seems like Stoneheart/the Riverlands might deal with the Freys first.  

I'm with you there. I think the resurrected/undead/whatever Jon will realize that his march to Winterfell was a stupid idea.

But our discussion on the clansmen/other Northmen is not in relation to the Others thing. Once that is finally understood as the real threat they will most certainly not march south. My point was that if Stannis were to march down south to kill some more Freys and Lannisters they would likely accompany - if he cared more about that than the Others.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We disagree on that, as we have different takes on Stannis.  I think both our takes are reasonable so nothing against that opinion.  I just find Stannis to be more of a tragic character, I've always read him as someone who will "break" before he "bends" per Donal Noye's description and I don't see him having a heroic ending.  I think GRRM could obviously go either way with that.

I don't know how Stannis will go down, either, I just meant to say that he has no reason to do something as stupid as antagonizing the Northmen over religion. And if Mel/R'hllor play a crucial role in the resurrection of Jon and should Bran actually reach out to Stannis and help him destroy the Boltons things are going to get a very interesting spin up there.

Bran and Bloodraven should see the big picture. Who would you want to work with for the time being? With children and men have trouble working together or with a king who actually sees the Others as 'the true enemy'?

Also keep in mind how handy a god of fire and a woman who is emanating heat are going to be in winter? Melisandre has her problems, but she isn't the enemy in the grand fight.

5 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but every bit of info we have says the wildlings were forced to burn branches of weirwood trees which they are still bitter about.  Jon notes this when he goes to Mole's Town to recruit and they are never described as anything but weirwood branches.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  

Yeah, they had to burn pieces of weirwoods. But not entire trees. They are defiant over this religion thing, sure, but they don't seem to be all that bitter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that Lyanna Mormont had been in contact with her mother. She just wrote a letter to Stannis not acknowledging the fact that Robb Stark is dead.

Since there are no ravens in the Neck there is no reason to believe Maege and Galbart did contact anyone from there at this point.

The man to contact about Robb Stark's will would have been Jon Snow - and that immediately after Robb Stark's death, not some Northmen who have are not named in that will.

LOL, no. That just means that these people will follow Lord Wyman's lead. It doesn't mean they do conspire, it just means that they see White Harbor as the great power in their region and follow the lead of its lord.

The only Cerwyn alive is the daughter. She is likely going to do nothing.

Sounds like fan fiction to me, considering that Catelyn and her people are likely going to free those hostages who should right now already on the way to KL.

Hother changing allegiances again after his nephew is freed isn't a conspiracy.

Only Barbrey was flashed out as a character. The Ryswells just get name-dropped. They are not characters.

The only real conspiracy in the North we have evidence for is the Bolton-Karstark conspiracy - and that one is not likely to go anywhere.

Plot-wise there is also no need for a conspiracy there. People all throw their dices and look how things go - nobody really likes the Boltons. Once they look weak the lords will desert or defect to Stannis. And if Stannis dies they will have to look for somebody else. 

The conspiracy theory thing over-explains a rather simple setup. Just as all the other conspiracy theories that disappeared into nothingness when the next book came out.

The real conspiracies are based on actual evidence - like the Bolton-Karstark conspiracy, or the Red Wedding conspiracy.

The above is just wordplay on what should be defined as a conspiracy and what not.

My view is that in the North there are core conspirators - Houses Manderly, Mormont, Glover, Reed and Umber. Each with its own unique approach to the plan. Reed and Mormont are fairly openly defiant due to their remote locations and secure status. Hence we see them actively take up arms against the Boltons. (And just on the Mormonts, it is the daughter with Stannis who reveals to Asha that she knows the current status of her mother and sister, which strongly hints that she has beennin contact with them recently).

Manderly and Umber had to play it safe due to the hostage situation. Manderly has been freed of that, and the Umbers are still keeping up a balanced appearance until the Greatjon is freed.

Then you have a bunch of other Houses that are doing whatever is required to stay safe in the short term, until the opportunity to join the Stark restoration arises. 

And all of the above while trying to eject the Ironborn and prepare for Winter.

Then you have the Clans who are on their own mission, but that mission will line up very well with a Stark restoration campaign when the time comes.

In all of this, we have the need to consider the Iron Throne, which is the invisible force backing Roose and which gaves him far more influence than his 4000 Bolton men would otherwise allow.

And that’s where the need for clandestine action arises from, in the short term. 

So it is not a conspiracy in the sense of being spelled out in detail to every possible participant, present and future. It is instead a common cause being pursued, subtly by some and not so subtly by others, while dealing with each House’s unique challenges at the same time.

Think “low cunning” rather than a Littlefinger or Varys level highly refined machination.

But don’t doubt that the outcome will be enemies baked into pies and entrails hanging from heart trees when all is said and done.

[Tagganaro]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, I never saw that letter as anything else but as a little girl being defiant.

Well, perhaps you should see it as more since we have Maege with Robb's will, Alysane with Stannis, and Lyanna at Bear Island (and 2 other Mormonts who are supposedly with Maege in parts unknown I think).  And again, the fact that we have Jon in text specifically think how weird it is that Lyanna is writing that letter is provocative to me- like GRRM is calling attention to this fact.  You can see it as simple "defiance" but you have someone saying they follow the King in the North despite there currently being no King in the North and nobody to possibly even take up that mantle (unless there's a broader conspiracy of course ).

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The Umbers are basically playing both sides. I'm pretty sure a man like Hother Umber is not going to turn against Roose if he thinks the guy is going to win. The Umbers ensure their house survives because they fight on both sides.

I mean, this is semantics no?  It's plotting and clear plotting at that and Roose warns of their "low cunning."

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Robb was a true Stark. A man who could lead and rule. Brandon Stark is a cripple the North is never going to follow (unless he plays the role of an 'old god'), and Rickon Stark is still a child. Making a child king in this scenario, while there are enemies everywhere, would simply be suicidal - even they could settle on a proper regency government for the child king.

You may be right but despite that, the North still seems pretty deadset on installing a Stark either as King or Liege Lord (take your pick).

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The idea that the Greatjon is going to do with/for Rickon Stark the same thing he did for Robb is very unlikely in my opinion. If Greywind hadn't saved Robb the Greatjon may have killed him in his own hall - or he may have forced Robb to take his head because it was indeed treason what the man did there.

But Greywind did save Robb and then the Greatjon became one his most loyal followers.  While I doubt Rickon plays a major role, I think you underrate the power that the direwolves grant the Stark children in the eyes of their fellow Northmen.  

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And what if Stannis promises those men gold and lands and places at court and marriages with highborn ladies, etc.? Do you think they don't care about that? Don't you think the Manderlys would like their old lands and seats back? The King on the Iron Throne can grant you favors a King in the North never could.

I've already said the Manderleys seem pretty happy where they are...the issue with this is Stannis is not a "granting favors" type.  He doesn't play that game nor does he really know how to- one of his major shortcomings as a ruler.

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I think I've shown that Roose's core forces - the men who returned with him from the Twins - greatly outnumber the pitiful forces the Umbers, Tallharts, Cerwyns, Hornwoods, etc. brought to Winterfell. Even Lady Dustin's force pale in light of that. And I think the men complicit in the Red Wedding - the men actually butchering their fellow Northmen and Riverlander allies - will think very, very hard before they abandon the Bolton ship.

You may or may not be right on this one- we really don't have enough info of troop compositions, especially once the Freys are gone.  The 4 houses you mention are all noted by Roose as not being trustworthy, and if you add Lady Dustin's forces to that who knows.  What I would guess is that if the Freys are eliminated which seems likely, Stannis + those 4 houses wreaking havoc on the inside of Winterfell- the Boltons are gonna be in a bit of trouble.

 

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Yes, but the point I was making is that there are other houses who did exactly nothing when the Ironborn invaded - and continued to do nothing after the Red Wedding. Men whose hands are not tied by hostages could have done something, no?

Perhaps they could have, perhaps they couldn't have.  These houses are all pretty weakened from the TWO5K, and besides for the Glovers/Manderleys who we know are plotting may not have much of a reason to risk taking back Deepwood Motte with lesser troops.  And again, we know the Glovers are plotting with the Manderleys yet seem in no rush to eliminate the Ironborn- perhaps the other houses in the North are doing the same.

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Them doing nothing shows that the Northmen actually need strong leadership to actually do major things. They do not work together collectively when there is no clear leader keeping them in their place and establish a clear hierarchy.

Yes, and that clear leader is still the Starks.  That's the key link in all the plotting hinted at.

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It seems pretty obvious to me that this is an outgrowth of Stannis' alliance with the clansmen. They have chosen a king and now they are helping the Lord Commander who helped to bring that alliance about.

That does not seem obvious to me at all especially since they are not particularly "helping" Jon nor do they seem to care too much about the wedding they are ostensibly there for.  It seems I guess I would say "more obvious" to me that they may be taking a look at Jon but who knows?  Again we have explicit text questioning there appearance which again seems designed to call our attention to it..

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But our discussion on the clansmen/other Northmen is not in relation to the Others thing. Once that is finally understood as the real threat they will most certainly not march south. My point was that if Stannis were to march down south to kill some more Freys and Lannisters they would likely accompany - if he cared more about that than the Others.

Possibly.  Like I said I could maybe see him talking them into going to the Twins, but again just don't see the King's Landing thing happening.

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I don't know how Stannis will go down, either, I just meant to say that he has no reason to do something as stupid as antagonizing the Northmen over religion. And if Mel/R'hllor play a crucial role in the resurrection of Jon and should Bran actually reach out to Stannis and help him destroy the Boltons things are going to get a very interesting spin up there.

Bran and Bloodraven should see the big picture. Who would you want to work with for the time being? With children and men have trouble working together or with a king who actually sees the Others as 'the true enemy'?

Also keep in mind how handy a god of fire and a woman who is emanating heat are going to be in winter? Melisandre has her problems, but she isn't the enemy in the grand fight.

 

Except all Stannis seems to do is antagonize people who he shouldn't need to antagonize.  He had no reason to demand Jon burn the weirwood and the wildling hostages to do the same, yet he did it all the same.  

But no, I disagree on Bran/Bloodraven working together with Melisandre.  Indeed the opposite is hinted at in Mel's POV- they are likely to be enemies if anything based on Mel's vision of Bran as the champion of the Great Other.  I'm sure Bran wouldn't be too happy with her having the wildlings burn the weirwoods. 

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Yeah, they had to burn pieces of weirwoods. But not entire trees. They are defiant over this religion thing, sure, but they don't seem to be all that bitter.

This is not really a distinction no?  I'm sure all the pieces that were burned amounted to full or at least a large portion of the trees, and either way it's a major attack on the Old Gods.  Call it defiance or bitterness, but as Jon says the Northmen are not gonna give up their gods easily and Stannis does not seem likely to give up his god either

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Well, perhaps you should see it as more since we have Maege with Robb's will, Alysane with Stannis, and Lyanna at Bear Island (and 2 other Mormonts who are supposedly with Maege in parts unknown I think).  And again, the fact that we have Jon in text specifically think how weird it is that Lyanna is writing that letter is provocative to me- like GRRM is calling attention to this fact.  You can see it as simple "defiance" but you have someone saying they follow the King in the North despite there currently being no King in the North and nobody to possibly even take up that mantle (unless there's a broader conspiracy of course ).

Well, it is quite clear that no Stark is taking up that mantle right now. Brandon Stark has left the North, and Rickon Stark is supposedly on Skagos - Manderly seems to have known this for quite some time but apparently couldn't get his ass up to save his 'liege lord'. He needs Davos for that.

Lyanna writing the letter is odd, but perhaps Alysane was was already on her way to the mainland. This is not a hint for a 'conspiracy'.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I mean, this is semantics no?  It's plotting and clear plotting at that and Roose warns of their "low cunning."

It is pretty obvious what they are trying to pull. There is nothing hidden there.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

You may be right but despite that, the North still seems pretty deadset on installing a Stark either as King or Liege Lord (take your pick).

Lord Wyman takes his time. He has no one looking for the cripple who apparently survived, too - which is telling insofar as it means they are not likely want to bow down to Bran. He won't be their lord, he won't be their king despite the fact that he is the rightful heir of Winterfell.

Making Rickon Stark the Lord of Winterfell means just that. And symbolically that can help reunite the North. But a child lord/king could still not hope to challenge the Lannisters or whoever is going to end up controlling the Iron Throne or lead the efforts against the Others.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

But Greywind did save Robb and then the Greatjon became one his most loyal followers.  While I doubt Rickon plays a major role, I think you underrate the power that the direwolves grant the Stark children in the eyes of their fellow Northmen.  

They are signs of legitimacy, but they are not dragons. They are just large animals.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I've already said the Manderleys seem pretty happy where they are...the issue with this is Stannis is not a "granting favors" type.  He doesn't play that game nor does he really know how to- one of his major shortcomings as a ruler.

Stannis made it clear he would make 'new lords' once he and Davos have defeated their enemies. What better new lords than those loyal clansmen? Why not give them great seats in the south?

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

You may or may not be right on this one- we really don't have enough info of troop compositions, especially once the Freys are gone.  The 4 houses you mention are all noted by Roose as not being trustworthy, and if you add Lady Dustin's forces to that who knows.  What I would guess is that if the Freys are eliminated which seems likely, Stannis + those 4 houses wreaking havoc on the inside of Winterfell- the Boltons are gonna be in a bit of trouble.

Again, Theon gives us rough numbers on the Bolton returning home in addition to Aenys and Hosteen's troops. The other large chunk are the Dustins, and the rest are not that much.

Perhaps not all of Roose's men were an active part of the Red Wedding, but most of them must have been. They killed a lot of men there, and they are not likely to have left any men alive who didn't shed some blood themselves, making them accomplices in the slaughter.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Perhaps they could have, perhaps they couldn't have.  These houses are all pretty weakened from the TWO5K, and besides for the Glovers/Manderleys who we know are plotting may not have much of a reason to risk taking back Deepwood Motte with lesser troops.  And again, we know the Glovers are plotting with the Manderleys yet seem in no rush to eliminate the Ironborn- perhaps the other houses in the North are doing the same.

One can say that Manderly would have to march his men a long distance to free Deepwood, but there are other houses closer to that place. If they were all working together they would have done something or at least have prepared to do something. But there is no indication that they did.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Yes, and that clear leader is still the Starks.  That's the key link in all the plotting hinted at.

Ned's children will all not be leaders. They are all children. They won't command or lead anything during the remainder of the series unless grown-up men suddenly listen to the great insights of pre-teen boys and little girls. Even Sansa could not rule the North in her own right.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

That does not seem obvious to me at all especially since they are not particularly "helping" Jon nor do they seem to care too much about the wedding they are ostensibly there for.  It seems I guess I would say "more obvious" to me that they may be taking a look at Jon but who knows?  Again we have explicit text questioning there appearance which again seems designed to call our attention to it..

They certainly check the situation at the Wall, but that only happens after Stannis has visited them. The obvious way to interpret this is to connect it to the Stannis thing, not to something else that is not actually touched upon in the text.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Except all Stannis seems to do is antagonize people who he shouldn't need to antagonize.  He had no reason to demand Jon burn the weirwood and the wildling hostages to do the same, yet he did it all the same.

It was part of Stannis and Mel's attempt to make sure Jon would be there man. A loyalty test.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

But no, I disagree on Bran/Bloodraven working together with Melisandre.  Indeed the opposite is hinted at in Mel's POV- they are likely to be enemies if anything based on Mel's vision of Bran as the champion of the Great Other.  I'm sure Bran wouldn't be too happy with her having the wildlings burn the weirwoods. 

That would make no sense from Bran/Bloodraven's POV. Mel and Stannis stand against the true enemy. They are, at this point, their only allies in the realms of men. The rest doesn't even believe the Others are a thing.

It is clear that Mel is mistaken about the meaning of the Bran/Bloodraven vision but that's hardly a surprise. In fact, it seems not unlikely that Mel is Bloodraven's own daughter - he would not want to fight his daughter by Shiera, would he?

People like Bloodraven and Bran shouldn't give a rat's ass about religion. They are the true 'gods' behind the lies/misunderstandings that are 'the old gods'. The weirwoods are not divine, they are tools used by sorcerers to spy on other people and to investigate and/or manipulate the past.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

This is not really a distinction no?  I'm sure all the pieces that were burned amounted to full or at least a large portion of the trees, and either way it's a major attack on the Old Gods.  Call it defiance or bitterness, but as Jon says the Northmen are not gonna give up their gods easily and Stannis does not seem likely to give up his god either

Stannis doesn't really believe in R'hllor. He just uses believes in Mel's visions and magics because they work.

If those morons all end up fighting over religious differences they could just volunteer to become all wights. The fire magic stuff and the last greenseer will have to work together - and they will figure out a way how to do that, I assume. At least until the Others show their hand. Then everything is going to hell.

[Blackfish Tully]

If Stannis takes Winterfell then one of his first steps will be to secure Moat Calin from the Boltons and a natural action after that would be to send out scouts and messengers from Moat Calin to the Vale , Riverlands , Crownlands etc,, to see what's happening and gather information and ask for alliances . A major priority would be to connect with Greywater Watch and gain their support and hooking up with the BWB would be a huge bonus for all the information and support they could provide.

As to the question of how much Stannis would know of what's happening in the South (Tywin & Kevan dead , Iron Born and Golden Company attacking ) don't forget that if he takes Winterfell it's probably because he joined up with the Manderlys and since White Harbor is the big trading port in the North the Manderlys will be getting information from every ship that comes from the South and Kevan Lannister dying and the Golden Company attacking the Stormlands are going to be huge news that the sailors and captains will be revealing when they dock at White Harbor and Manderly should have messages going back and forth from Winterfell.

Tywin dying is common knowledge at this time and i can't imagine that the Iron Born attacking the Reach is not common knowledge as well since it happened 3 months ago.

2/7 Tywin is killed 

4/30 Iron Born attack shield island 

6/12 Golden Company lands 

6/28 Kevan is killed 

8/9 Banker meets Stannis 

[Bernie Mac]

On 9/14/2018 at 3:09 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

If Stannis takes Winterfell then one of his first steps will be to secure Moat Calin from the Boltons

There are no men at Moat Cailin, the Boltons are not worried about being attacked by their allies from the South, especially not now its winter. 

The only two places there will be Bolton men will be at Winterfell and the Dreadfort. There is zero reason for Stannis to make his way to Moat Cailin, there is no one there. 

On 9/14/2018 at 3:09 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and a natural action after that would be to send out scouts and messengers from Moat Calin to the Vale , Riverlands , Crownlands etc,, to see what's happening and gather information and ask for alliances .

Except that is demonstrably not true. 

• when Stannis secured the Wall did he send off scouts and messengers to the rest of the North?
• when Stannis secured Deepwood Motte did he send off scouts and messengers to the rest of the North?
• camped 3 days away from Moat Cailin did he send off scouts and messengers to the rest of the North?

So not only is the idea of him going to Moat Cailin unlikely but him randomly sending out men on a whim is not the natural conclusion when you are living in a realm the size of a continent, it is winter and resources, manpower and horses are limited. Even at Storm's End, when it was summer and the majority of his 20k army was horsebacked did he not send messengers and scouts to the much closer Riverlands, Westerlands and Vale. 

Sending messengers is pointless unless they have the recognized authority to speak for the king, that is why Robb sends his mother and Theon, that is why Stannis sends his own Hand Davos and then Massey, why only a member of the Small Council was used to secure the Tyrells or why Walder sent two sons to negotiate with Robb at Winterfell. 

On 9/14/2018 at 3:09 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

A major priority would be to connect with Greywater Watch and gain their support and hooking up with the BWB would be a huge bonus for all the information and support they could provide.

If he had all the information that we book readers do, then yeah. But he is clueless about the motives of the BWB and the Crannogmen, even by many in the North, are regarded as useless outside of their swamp. 

It would not be a major priority. 

On 9/14/2018 at 3:09 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

As to the question of how much Stannis would know of what's happening in the South (Tywin & Kevan dead , Iron Born and Golden Company attacking ) don't forget that if he takes Winterfell

Theon was in Winterfell, he is clueless to what is actually happening in the South. Are you expecting all the correct information to come flooding in once Stannis takes Winterfell?

 

 

[Rufus Snow]

On 9/14/2018 at 3:09 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

6/28 Kevan is killed 

8/9 Banker meets Stannis 

How do you reconcile this?

Everyone at the Wall and in the north thinks it's still autumn ('this is autumn's kiss'). The narrative still describes the weather as autumnal, and they haven't had their winter raven yet.

Kevan died the day the winter raven arrived in KL. THIS IS CLEARLY A LATER DATE THAN ANY OTHER SCENE, because no-one else has received their winter raven yet. Tycho Nestoris must have left the south long before Kevan died or the winter raven would have reached the Wall before him, so all the news you imagine he has, he simply cannot have.

[Blackfish Tully]

11 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

How do you reconcile this?

Everyone at the Wall and in the north thinks it's still autumn ('this is autumn's kiss'). The narrative still describes the weather as autumnal, and they haven't had their winter raven yet.

Kevan died the day the winter raven arrived in KL. THIS IS CLEARLY A LATER DATE THAN ANY OTHER SCENE, because no-one else has received their winter raven yet. Tycho Nestoris must have left the south long before Kevan died or the winter raven would have reached the Wall before him, so all the news you imagine he has, he simply cannot have.

even if you are right (which as i stated earlier i have no idea on the time frame on these events , the POV chapters do not make it easy ) how long until word of Kevan's death makes it up from Kings Landing to White Harbor ? and from there to Winterfell where the Manderly's will he joining up with Stannis if he wins the battle so it's foolish to think he would not be getting that news from the South .

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There are no men at Moat Cailin, the Boltons are not worried about being attacked by their allies from the South, especially not now its winter. 

The only two places there will be Bolton men will be at Winterfell and the Dreadfort. There is zero reason for Stannis to make his way to Moat Cailin, there is no one there. 

 

that just makes no sense at all . Bolton may not have any enemies in the South but Stannis has a ton of them so why in the hell would he not secure the one route from the South to the North  . If there are no Bolton men at Moat Calin then that makes it even easier for Stannis but he has to secure Moat Calin to be secured in the North and once he has Moat Calin it would be stupid of him not to send scouts and messengers South from there to see what's happening and what allies he can find, that's just common sense and really should not even be a question.

[Rufus Snow]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

even if you are right (which as i stated earlier i have no idea on the time frame on these events , the POV chapters do not make it easy ) how long until word of Kevan's death makes it up from Kings Landing to White Harbor ? and from there to Winterfell where the Manderly's will he joining up with Stannis if he wins the battle so it's foolish to think he would not be getting that news from the South .

Who says he'll never get the news from the south? The question is WHEN he gets the news from the south, and the answer is 'not for a few months yet'. Stannis KNOWS where his enemy is, and that is NORTH. Why are you so determined to send him south? He has no business going south unless and until the threat from the north is defeated. He won't get any allies by going south, he'll just get even more enemies.

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

that just makes no sense at all . Bolton may not have any enemies in the South but Stannis has a ton of them so why in the hell would he not secure the one route from the South to the North  . If there are no Bolton men at Moat Calin then that makes it even easier for Stannis but he has to secure Moat Calin to be secured in the North and once he has Moat Calin it would be stupid of him not to send scouts and messengers South from there to see what's happening and what allies he can find, that's just common sense and really should not even be a question.

a) Stannis doesn't know what is going on in the south in the last few months, and his enemies in the south will also assume their allies in the north (ie BOLTON) will be dealing with Stannis on their behalf

b) he is hundreds of leagues from Moat Caillin and a southron army coming north through the snow is going to be as slow as his own forces are going south, so will not be a threat for another half a year or so

c) and that's if anyone in the south is stupid enough to even be sending an army up the causeway in the first place (because why Bolton if we have to come up there in person )- and ok, given they are nesh southern gits they are stupid enough to do so - but really, even southrons are not that fucking stupid when they know shiploads of sellswords are landing all over the place. Stannis may not know about the GC, but the southrons do (or soon will do). Are they really going to march 2,000 leagues north to deal with Stannis, who they think is a joke, or maybe stay home and defend their lands from the enemey they can see with their own eyes??????

Accept it - those in the south are looking south; those in the north are looking north. That's what sensible commanders are doing at either end of the continent, and that's what they need to be doing.

[Blackfish Tully]

21 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Who says he'll never get the news from the south? The question is WHEN he gets the news from the south, and the answer is 'not for a few months yet'. Stannis KNOWS where his enemy is, and that is NORTH. Why are you so determined to send him south? He has no business going south unless and until the threat from the north is defeated. He won't get any allies by going south, he'll just get even more enemies.

 

 

Because South is where the Iron Throne is and if has any chance to stop the massive army of Zombie's and WW then he will need more men., much more men then he has or will have if he takes Winterfell . the WW have not attacked the wall yet so Stannis still has time to make other plans . It could be months or years before the WW attack the wall , who knows what time frame those creatures are on , it's been thousands of years since the last attack.

[Rufus Snow]

9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Because South is where the Iron Throne is and if has any chance to stop the massive army of Zombie's and WW then he will need more men., much more men then he has or will have if he takes Winterfell . the WW have not attacked the wall yet so Stannis still has time to make other plans . It could be months or years before the WW attack the wall , who knows what time frame those creatures are on , it's been thousands of years since the last attack. 

It doesn't matter how big your army is if you turn up after the war is already lost, why can't you grasp that? Stannis has already decided on page that he needs to save the realm before he can claim the throne.

Stannis is a cautious commander. He will not turn his back on the 'enemy he was born to fight' on the off-chance it MIGHT be years before they attack. He doesn't believe he has years, no-one at the Wall does. They know the army of the dead is already marching. They know this army reached the Fist of the First Men months ago - Moat Cailin is about ten times as far from the Wall as the Fist is, King's Landing is about thirty times further away - sixty times as far to go there and back, and that's assuming you don't have half the armies of the 7K trying to kill you on the way. I'm really not sure you've grasped the distances involved. It's not dissimilar to a commander on Hadrian's Wall marching all the way to Rome for reinforcements after he's already heard the Caledonii are marching towards him. Stannis would need to be certifiable to go south under these conditions. He has everything to lose and little to gain.

The Wall is the only asset they have which they believe to be designed for fighting the WWs. So far they have every reason to believe that if they can't hold that, then all is lost.

Time is a luxury they simply do not have. Even dealing with Bolton wastes precious time, but he simply can't risk them attacking from the south when the WW and wights are attacking from the north, otherwise he could leave them to be dealt with after the 'Winter War'.