Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south

[Bernie Mac]

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tycho did not travel all the way to the Wall  risking his life going through the Iron Born and then go to Deepwood Motte and then Winterfell in a blizzard through a war zone and then back again to find Stannis at the frozen lake just to give him a loan , if so he’s the Iron Bank's employee of the decade .

Many, many people throughout the series have risked their life for their bosses, it is part of the job description. Happened frequently throughout the middle ages, when Henry VIII was seeking to get his marriage annulled he was sending his noble messengers back and forth throughout war torn europe over a number of years. Even when the Pope was captured and imprisoned by Spain,  Henry's rival over the divorce/annulment they were still sent. 

You might not understand it but this is common. Diplomacy increases in wartorn realms, not decrease.  

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

i expect the Iron Bank to put all it’s resources into crushing the Lannisters so that people will remember for a long time what happens when somebody screws with them , the fact that the Lannisters are a competitor of the Iron Bank when it comes to the loan business and  crushing them will improve business in the future is just an added bonus . 

The Lannisters don't owe the bank anything (just like the Tyrells don't), the crown does. The debt was made in the name of House Baratheon. 

Again, you are jumping to conclusions based on what you want to happen

[Blackfish Tully]

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Can you quote the relevant passages that back this being more than a loan? That the Ironbank even have this infrastructure you think they have?

 

Yeah, that seems doubtful. They are loaning him money, there is zero suggestion it is a partnership in the way you are suggesting otherwise they would be offering to do the hiring, actually leaving councillors with him. 

Nothing from what we have seen suggests that the bank is doing anything other than financial loan. 

But not actually. They've given money to a rival claimant, not actually uncommon. The Italian merchants and bankers in London during the reign of Henry VII often had ties to both Henry and the multiple pretenders or almost pretenders that plagued his reign. 

The Iron Bank themselves are not at war with the crown. 

Excellent, we are both on board. There will not be some network, never once mentioned in the series, that will be supporting Stannis. 

lol why? Why has this network never been mentioned?

Give examples of real life medieval banks networks to compare with?

In every major city, sure. That is about it. 

 

If you are right about all this then it makes the Iron Bank pretty lame . We have heard throughout the books that the "Iron Bank will get it's due " and that they have a fearsome reputation if  they are crossed  and you are telling us that after Cersei Lannister dismisses and embarrassed them that the best they can do is give Stannis a loan and hope for the best ? I just find that hard to believe that they are not going to be putting the full force of the bank behind him just like i find it hard to believe the most powerful and successful bank in the world does not have a robust information network to support it's loan business . How can they make informed decisions on who to loan to and what rate to charge if they don't have all the information that they can gather in these territories ? That would just be a bad business model . 

 

[Bernie Mac]

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

If you are right about all this then it makes the Iron Bank pretty lame .

No, it makes them a bank. A hugely powerful bank that is financing  Stannis to go on fighting for a number of years. But they are still a bank, their primary functions are speculating, investing and accounting, that is what they are set up for, not implementing massive regime change on a neighbouring continent. 

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

We have heard throughout the books that the "Iron Bank will get it's due "

We've heard it four times in the series, all in regards to Cersei who thought they could wait. 

 

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

and that they have a fearsome reputation if  they are crossed  and you are telling us that after Cersei Lannister dismisses and embarrassed them that the best they can do is give Stannis a loan and hope for the best ?

They've funded another few years of war and refused all new loans to the continent of Westeros, that is quite an impact. But they are still only a bank, they are limited to the ways they can destabilize continents. 

But as it happens major banks are very effective of putting the squeeze on, but its done with finance. 

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

I just find that hard to believe that they are not going to be putting the full force of the bank

 

They are, they are still a bank though.

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

behind him just like i find it hard to believe the most powerful and successful bank in the world does not have a robust information network to support it's loan business .

Then were are they? Why is Tycho travelling thousands of miles to make the deals? Tycho seems oblivious to the danger of Dany and her dragons, he certainly did not mention her to Stannis, and given Stannis wants Massey to hire the Golden Company he clearly is not aware of their commitment. 

 

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

How can they make informed decisions on who to loan to and what rate to charge if they don't have all the information that they can gather in these territories ? That would just be a bad business model . 

 

They deal with merchants, with profit and loss, with understanding the rate of gold/silver/spice/etc. They are clued up, but on banking, not regime change. 

[Blackfish Tully]

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, it makes them a bank. A hugely powerful bank that is financing  Stannis to go on fighting for a number of years. But they are still a bank, their primary functions are speculating, investing and accounting, that is what they are set up for, not implementing massive regime change on a neighbouring continent. 

 

isn't implementing regime change exactly  what they are known for if they are not paid ?

but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

 

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

isn't implementing regime change exactly  what they are known for if they are not paid ?

but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

 

Yeah, Jon makes it clear that chances are very good that Stannis signature under the contract with Tycho may mean that he has won the war. Money means sellswords, sellswords can mean victory in battle, and victory in battle means more and more lords might declare for Stannis.

More importantly, there is the chance that the Iron Bank sends out the Faceless Men to deal with those princes who cannot or will not pay so that the others who will take their place will have not that much trouble doing so.

In addition, one could certainly see the next Sealord to enter into the war in Westeros on Stannis' side. The Iron Bank must be a powerful player behind the scenes in Braavos. And if Tycho Nestoris represent the average Braavosi view on dragons in ADwD then they won't side with Daenerys.

[Tagganaro]

37 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

isn't implementing regime change exactly  what they are known for if they are not paid ?

but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

 

Yes this is exactly what the Iron Bank is known for.  Additionally I believe there's some quote from Tyrion when he hears about Cersei not paying back the Iron Bank that she couldn't possibly be that stupid.  This makes perfect sense- the Iron Bank is one of, if not the most wealthy institutions in Planetos.  That wealth 100% could spin wars one way or the other.

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, Jon makes it clear that chances are very good that Stannis signature under the contract with Tycho may mean that he has won the war. Money means sellswords, sellswords can mean victory in battle, and victory in battle means more and more lords might declare for Stannis.

More importantly, there is the chance that the Iron Bank sends out the Faceless Men to deal with those princes who cannot or will not pay so that the others who will take their place will have not that much trouble doing so.

In addition, one could certainly see the next Sealord to enter into the war in Westeros on Stannis' side. The Iron Bank must be a powerful player behind the scenes in Braavos. And if Tycho Nestoris represent the average Braavosi view on dragons in ADwD then they won't side with Daenerys.

What Braavos will do is very interesting since they have dual motives- they hate dragons but they also hate slavery so that puts Dany in a precarious position with them.  

[divica]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, Jon makes it clear that chances are very good that Stannis signature under the contract with Tycho may mean that he has won the war. Money means sellswords, sellswords can mean victory in battle, and victory in battle means more and more lords might declare for Stannis.

More importantly, there is the chance that the Iron Bank sends out the Faceless Men to deal with those princes who cannot or will not pay so that the others who will take their place will have not that much trouble doing so.

In addition, one could certainly see the next Sealord to enter into the war in Westeros on Stannis' side. The Iron Bank must be a powerful player behind the scenes in Braavos. And if Tycho Nestoris represent the average Braavosi view on dragons in ADwD then they won't side with Daenerys.

But the problem with stannis is that from tycho's pov he must be a dying horse. Without some inside information about the northern conspiracy inside winterfell anyone would say stannis has no chance. Even if he gets to winterfell he doesn t have the means to do a siege. His soldiers would all die within a couple of weeks…

 

Does it make sense to invest in and plain a campaign for a lord that has high chances of being dead when they arrive? And it doesn t make any sense to start na invasion of westeros in the middle of winter! Hell, sending sellswords to eastwatch in the middle of winter sounds like the most stupid thing ever! with shortage of food and bad weather the march to the neck would take for ever and kill thousands!

 

If stannis really was in some kind of cooperation with the IB then he would be planning to leave for the Wall, essos or some interesting point for his new selswords to dock that he would have told massey. What we have seen so far is that tycho has let stannis do whatever he wants with his loan… In addition, the lannisters might decide to pay the IB after all or Aegon might take KL before stannis. What happens then? Seriously, when massey gets to essos (at least a month) what will the IB do if the lannisters decided to pay or are no longer in power?

[Guest]

On 9/20/2018 at 1:01 PM, Tagganaro said:

I don't see it that way at all.  I think Sansa would be more than happy to support Jon if it meant safety for her and her brothers and Winterfell restored.  

Exactly. She's just going to use her charm offensive to get the Lords to support Jon. She wishes she could see him again in Feast for christ sake. She's not going to war with her brother.

I can't see a Starkmoot happening in a million years. The Starks arent the Ironborn. 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, divica said:

But the problem with stannis is that from tycho's pov he must be a dying horse.

then why is he there ? you don't give massive loans to dying horses 

 

1 hour ago, divica said:

… In addition, the lannisters might decide to pay the IB after all or Aegon might take KL before stannis. What happens then? Seriously, when massey gets to essos (at least a month) what will the IB do if the lannisters decided to pay or are no longer in power?

The ship may have already sailed on the Lannisters paying them back . There comes a point for an institution like the Iron Bank were reputation matters more than the money . It's like owing a loan shark or the Mob and screwing around with paying what you owe , there is a point where no matter if you pay or not they are going to make an example out of you . 

[Guest]

I haven't checked back in the forums in a while but wow, people still don't believe the Pink Letter? It's all right there - Stannis' army was routed, Stannis still lives, and Mel hears this. All she has to do in Winds is take Shireen with her to find him in the snows, and convince him to burn his daughter as a last ditch effort to win. Northern conspiracy fizzles, the loan is retracted, and so goes Stannis, the king who cared enough to burn his own daughter. Jon is resurrected because of it and still tries to kill Ramsay (see: Beric). The two outsider Starks have to take back WF themselves.

No one wants to read about the Starks fighting each other over a castle that Stannis won for them. 

[Guest]

Oh and Sansa is the grey girl. Sorry if that triggers some people.

[divica]

57 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

then why is he there ? you don't give massive loans to dying horses 

 

The ship may have already sailed on the Lannisters paying them back . There comes a point for an institution like the Iron Bank were reputation matters more than the money . It's like owing a loan shark or the Mob and screwing around with paying what you owe , there is a point where no matter if you pay or not they are going to make an example out of you . 

Without priveleged information about northern loyalty to the boltons stannis seems doomed. He has less men, no food, nobody to nominate warden so that the north can rally behind, no way to siege winterfell and his men are rapidly dying. So yes, stannis is a dying horse if you don t know about some northern conspiracy and if tycho knew (which there is no reason for him to know) he would have told stannis.

 

why would they do that? why risk a war in westeros that would cost them a huge sum of Money when they could have what they want? At this point we are still very far from the point of no return… And if Aegon conquers KL what would they do? sending sellswords to the north is a terrible plan to conquer westeros so why would they invest their Money in stannis when Aegon could give them what they want without any trouble?

[Blackfish Tully]

20 minutes ago, divica said:

why would they do that? why risk a war in westeros that would cost them a huge sum of Money when they could have what they want? At this point we are still very far from the point of no return… 

what the Iron Bank wants is people to pay them what they owe when they owe it not for them to pay whenever they please . 

Cersei has directly attacked their reputation with her actions , instead of paying the Iron Bank what they owed the Iron Throne  built a fleet of massive ships , staged a crazy expensive wedding and spent a small fortune on a new crown for the High Sparrow , the Iron Bank would be aware of all this and we may be at the point of no return where they have decided that the affront to their honor and reputation needs to be answered in blood . 

"The Iron Bank will have its due when I say they will. Until such time, the Iron Bank will wait respectfully. Lord Waters, commence the building of your dromonds."

 

King Robert—"

"—is dead," she said sharply. "The Iron Bank will have its gold when this rebellion has been put down."

He had the insolence to scowl at her. "Your Grace—"

[Bernie Mac]

11 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

isn't implementing regime change exactly  what they are known for if they are not paid ?

but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

 

Exactly, they loan the money to pretenders to rebel. They are not fighting themselves, they are loaning rebels the money to do so.  That is incredibly dangerous.  

[Blackfish Tully]

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Exactly, they loan the money to pretenders to rebel. They are not fighting themselves, they are loaning rebels the money to do so.  That is incredibly dangerous.  

We are not talking loaning a few thousand gold pieces for Stannis to renovate his castle , this is tens of thousands of sellswords and dozens if not hundreds of sellships plus food and supplies for those men and his army for  a war that can last for years, that’s a massive loan that the Iron Bank is risking on Stannis (not to mention the risk to their reputation )and the only way that they would risk that much money is that they are pretty damm sure he is going to win and that’s because they are going to throw all of their resources behind him . I have a feeling in the next 2 books we may find out a lot more about the full power of the Iron Bank . 

[Bernie Mac]

On 9/29/2018 at 12:40 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

We are not talking loaning a few thousand gold pieces for Stannis to renovate his castle ,

At what point in the last 10 pages did I suggest that? Come on dude, you can't keep on inventing these straw man arguments. 

 

On 9/29/2018 at 12:40 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

this is tens of thousands of sellswords and dozens if not hundreds of sellships plus food and supplies for those men and his army for  a war that can last for years, that’s a massive loan that the Iron Bank is risking on Stannis

Yes, they are giving him the means to fight a war. They are not the ones fighting it, they are not hiring the men to fight it they are loaning Stannis the funds to do so. 

They are a bank. 

On 9/29/2018 at 12:40 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

(not to mention the risk to their reputation )

What risk? 

On 9/29/2018 at 12:40 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and the only way that they would risk that much money is that they are pretty damm sure he is going to win

Then they will loan him what they think will cover it. But they are a bank. 

On 9/29/2018 at 12:40 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and that’s because they are going to throw all of their resources behind him .

Well no, they are not. They are a bank, they will only loan till it makes sense, they will not risk the bank on one person. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

At what point in the last 10 pages did I suggest that? Come on dude, you can't keep on inventing these straw man arguments. 

 

I don't think i was making a straw man argument , I was just making a point that they were making a massive ongoing loan to Stannis that would cost the Iron Bank a massive fortune and if Stannis fails they would lose all that money so this is more than just a loan , the are financing his whole campaign  . They have declared war on the Iron Throne by supporting Stannis and will throw everything they have at them until their honor has been satisfied. For them Stannis is probably just a means to an end , They have decided that the Iron Throne must pay for crapping on their  reputation and Stannis just happens to be the lucky guy who has the best claim in their eyes . This war will be between the Iron Bank and the Iron Throne and Stannis will just be a front that the Iron Bank is using to achieve their ends . 

[Maia]

On 9/28/2018 at 5:03 PM, Lord Varys said:

More importantly, there is the chance that the Iron Bank sends out the Faceless Men to deal with those princes who cannot or will not pay so that the others who will take their place will have not that much trouble doing so.

If so, why would they need to finance the war at all? Just get rid of Cersei, demand abject apologies and impose punitive fine on whoever succeeds her. Or kill Tommen too, even.

I am very curious about the relationship between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men - what Arya has learned so far about FM rules doesn't suggest that it is as close as you propose.

On 9/28/2018 at 6:58 PM, divica said:

But the problem with stannis is that from tycho's pov he must be a dying horse. Without some inside information about the northern conspiracy inside winterfell anyone would say stannis has no chance. Even if he gets to winterfell he doesn t have the means to do a siege. His soldiers would all die within a couple of weeks…

Frankly, I think that this whole thing with financing Stannis is mainly a means for IB to exert pressure on the Crown in KL. Because even if Stannis had been in better position when Tycho met him, there is still the fact that between an almost certainly very severe and lengthy Winter and further devastation of Westeros by yet another round of the civil war, Stannis wouldn't be able to pay back IB this massive loan that he needs to take the Iron Throne even if he won. There just wouldn't be enough tax base left. 

But then, Tycho apparently gave Jon Snow an unlimited loan either, so what do I know about their practices - and how they able to eke profit at all if they are so profligate with clients where the chance of repayment is pretty much nil...

On 9/28/2018 at 8:45 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

The ship may have already sailed on the Lannisters paying them back . There comes a point for an institution like the Iron Bank were reputation matters more than the money .

I don't know about it - they would be throwing a lot of good money after bad and that isn't healthy for a financial institution. I mean, Stannis not having an adult, capable heir already makes the whole enterprise very iffy, given the health hasards of a severe Winter. 

 

3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 . They have declared war on the Iron Throne by supporting Stannis and will throw everything they have at them until their honor has been satisfied. For them Stannis is probably just a means to an end , They have decided that the Iron Throne must pay for crapping on their  reputation and Stannis just happens to be the lucky guy who has the best claim in their eyes .

I doubt that the Iron Bank cares about "best" claims - Stannis was just the only other pretender to the Iron Throne still available at the time. It wouldn't surprise me, if after they get news about Aegon's first successes, they'd offer him financing too. 

[argonak]

1 hour ago, Maia said:

If so, why would they need to finance the war at all? Just get rid of Cersei, demand abject apologies and impose punitive fine on whoever succeeds her. Or kill Tommen too, even.

I am very curious about the relationship between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men - what Arya has learned so far about FM rules doesn't suggest that it is as close as you propose.

Frankly, I think that this whole thing with financing Stannis is mainly a means for IB to exert pressure on the Crown in KL. Because even if Stannis had been in better position when Tycho met him, there is still the fact that between an almost certainly very severe and lengthy Winter and further devastation of Westeros by yet another round of the civil war, Stannis wouldn't be able to pay back IB this massive loan that he needs to take the Iron Throne even if he won. There just wouldn't be enough tax base left. 

But then, Tycho apparently gave Jon Snow an unlimited loan either, so what do I know about their practices - and how they able to eke profit at all if they are so profligate with clients where the chance of repayment is pretty much nil...

I don't know about it - they would be throwing a lot of good money after bad and that isn't healthy for a financial institution. I mean, Stannis not having an adult, capable heir already makes the whole enterprise very iffy, given the health hasards of a severe Winter. 

 

I doubt that the Iron Bank cares about "best" claims - Stannis was just the only other pretender to the Iron Throne still available at the time. It wouldn't surprise me, if after they get news about Aegon's first successes, they'd offer him financing too. 

I think they said the crown owes near a million dragons to the iron bank.  The bank probably can't afford to not get that back, so they're willing to extend further credit to do what it takes.  not to mention its their reputation on the line, if people stop repaying loans the bank fails.

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Maia said:

If so, why would they need to finance the war at all? Just get rid of Cersei, demand abject apologies and impose punitive fine on whoever succeeds her. Or kill Tommen too, even.

I am very curious about the relationship between the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men - what Arya has learned so far about FM rules doesn't suggest that it is as close as you propose.

I agree with this as well.  It's tough for me to imagine two more diametrically opposed institutions.  I think they are capable of cooperation, but I also do not see them having any kind of close relationship.  Besides for them both being Braavosi, I just don't see any other similarities.

Quote

Frankly, I think that this whole thing with financing Stannis is mainly a means for IB to exert pressure on the Crown in KL. Because even if Stannis had been in better position when Tycho met him, there is still the fact that between an almost certainly very severe and lengthy Winter and further devastation of Westeros by yet another round of the civil war, Stannis wouldn't be able to pay back IB this massive loan that he needs to take the Iron Throne even if he won. There just wouldn't be enough tax base left. 

I think this is more reputational to the Iron Bank- granted that getting that loan back is probably very important in its own right financially.  But I think they can afford to "exert pressure" and make sure they get a candidate on the Iron Throne who is committed to repaying them.  I see the Iron Bank spreading its wealth around here and its very possible that if another candidate for the IT like Faegon seems more likely to succeed and is willing to do business, the IB supports them as well.  It's very possible the IB has already sent representatives like Tycho to Faegon and Jon Con as well, and if Dany ever moves towards Westeros I would think they would also be there.

Quote

But then, Tycho apparently gave Jon Snow an unlimited loan either, so what do I know about their practices - and how they able to eke profit at all if they are so profligate with clients where the chance of repayment is pretty much nil...

Yeah that is sort of glossed over but I believe it has a lot to do with timber.  We know it is rare and somewhat valuable in Braavos while abundant around the Wall and in the Gift.  We also know from Jon's own thoughts that he doesn't think it's really a good deal for either party so it is not as one-sided as it seems.

Quote

 

I don't know about it - they would be throwing a lot of good money after bad and that isn't healthy for a financial institution. I mean, Stannis not having an adult, capable heir already makes the whole enterprise very iffy, given the health hasards of a severe Winter. 

I doubt that the Iron Bank cares about "best" claims - Stannis was just the only other pretender to the Iron Throne still available at the time. It wouldn't surprise me, if after they get news about Aegon's first successes, they'd offer him financing too. 

 

I think it depends whether the Iron Bank can afford these kind of "enterprises", which I think they can several times over.  Again, I think a lot of this is reputational to them and they want to make an example of Cersei/the Lannisters.  I think they can afford to throw their weight behind anyone else looking to gain the Throne as well, and I think they will.  Stannis was their only option early in ADWD when Tycho shows up- I'd imagine they will also go after Faegon if he wins the Stormlands and Dany whenever she makes her move.