The Ramsey's list and the true goal of the Pink Letter

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Ramsay did not hunt Reek and Jeyne to Castle Black, over 600 miles away, despite his reputation for hunting human prey through the woods, and instead favored writing a letter to Jon?

He probably tracked them to Stannis's camp, at which point he lost the trail.  By the tine he found out that Jeyne was on her way to Castle black, she would have a large head start.  Catching her at that point isn't really an option.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It doesn't matter to Ramsay that Jon is one of the few people alive who would know the real Arya and be able to undo the false marriage?

Of course it does.  Thus he is establishing Jon as a liar, and an enemy, so that anything he says about Arya can be discredited.  At worst, it will be a big question mark, but it already is, anyway.  Plus, he knwos damn well he is probably not getting her back in any case.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Theon was wrong about Ramsay coming after him?

Of course he came after him.  He can't exactly chase them through Stannis's camp.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Theon was right about what Ramsay would say in a letter Ramsay would write several days later?

Theon has been tortured by and otherwise with Ramsay for over a year.  He probably has a pretty good idea what he will say.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

• There really was a seven day battle, despite the fact that Stannis' army was dropping at 80 men a day and rising from cold and hunger?
• Stannis sent his sword to Winterfell but kept his freezing and starving army outside?

I've never claimed to believe all the contents.  Just that Ramsay wrotoe it.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

As I said, I don't get this whole argument. Jon states in the text that he will ride to Winterfell alone if needs be, unless anyone will stand with him. Yet I am meant to take that quote as a lie Jon is using just to rally the wildlings and accept your version of events where he reinforces Castle Black and waits for ramsay, which is supported with no citation? Sure.

Jon knows damn well what the wildlings reaction is going to be.  He knows he will get enough of a response to make it worthwhile.  

Stannis, on the other hand, has no reason to think that Jon is going to have enough men available to make a trip to Winterfell worthwhile.  As opposed to sending scouting parties or ambushes into the Gift to wait for Ramsay and seach for Arya.

Speaking of Stannis, since when is he a duplicitous, deceitful liar?  The most deceitful thing he has done is probably the Mance-Rattleshirt switch, and that was Melisandre's doing as much, or more, than Stannis's.  And whatever Melisandre's motives toward Jon, she seems intent on keeping him at the wall, to fight the threat she sees coming.

 

Possible motives for the letter:

Scare the named individuals into abandoning Castle Black and leaving Westeros, or the Night's Watch into evicting them.  If they are no longer in Westeros, it isolates Stannis, and they are no longer Ramsay's problem.

Inform Jon that he knows about Mance, and his deceit is exposed.  Might also be a threat to expose Mance's involvement in FArya's disappearance.

Make Jon think Stannis is defeated and dead, and his own position is in peril.

Give himself an excuse to attack Castle Black.  He knows the letter's demands are not going to be met.

Induce a rebellion by Nights Watch members.

Vent his anger at Jon.  It's not like Ramsay is the most stable person out there.

 

The only motive given for Stannis is to induce Jon into deserting and going to Winterfell.  But the letter gives Jon no good reason to do so.  Arya is not there.  The letter says so.  Mance is there, but his presence is unauthorized, and, according to the letter, that cat is out of the bag, so there is no secret to protect.  And from what Stannis knows, Jon hasn't got the men to do anything about it in any case.

[Melifeather]

On 11/19/2018 at 2:17 PM, lalt said:

Menacing Arya - the only Stark (as far as Jon knows) on the list - wasn't enough because as a sworn brother Jon has already proved to everybody in Westeros that he knows how/what to choose between family and duty (see 1-I). But by menacing women and children, that are not his kin and yet "bound" to him by... trust, thus... honor (beside/regardless the sacred tie of guest right), the author is forcing Jon to face a dilemma that given the scenario described by the Pink Letter, is graver than that Jon Arryn had to face 20 years ago. More importanly this is the most grave moral dilemma Jon Snow has ever faced.

I love this parallel between Jon Snow and his namesake, Jon Arryn! I cannot believe I haven't noticed they faced basically the same choice!

 

On 11/19/2018 at 2:17 PM, lalt said:

The pink letter is not the product of a sociopathic mind. Even if Ramsey wrote it. It’is a desperate but clever move in the darkest hour of the author. Or the finest strategic move made by someone who knows that Jon Snow won't easely leave the Wall. No matter if he/she did get the chance to him personally.

It's written the way it is, because that's the most logic choice he/she may take to not be fuck*** or to get exactly what he/she wants from Jon Snow. And what he/she wants, it's not those people.

He/She sent an... unacceptable ultimatum to an honorable young man that is also the lord commander of the Night's Watch (“choose between harming the Order and ending the lives of those women and childen”) not by chance. But because all that he/she wants is that Jon won't accept that ultimatum.

That he'll do the only 3rd thing he can do, to not jeopardize his order and the lives of those women and children. That is: making of the menaces in that letter a matter of "personal" honor and leaving the Wall immediately, to face Ramsey.

That's the purpose of the pink letter, no matter who wrote it. Key words being "leaving” the Wall and "immediately" /see next) too.

Mission accomplished, if it wasn't for the unpredictable "for the Watch" twist.

 

I completely agree with the logical reasoning of ^^^.

IMO, it would be completely stupid for Ramsay to send the letter and add reinforcements to the armies surrounding Winterfell. He doesn't know that Mors Umber only has young boys and old men, and surely he knows Stannis is close by. Why would he want to add a third party of men led by Jon Snow to be against him?

IMO, Mance is the author of the letter and that the true motive was to get Jon to leave the Wall. It had nothing to do with saving his ass at Winterfell, but to cause chaos and disorder at the Wall. If you've read my theory that the wildlings are the Others, then you'd see this move as part of the wildling plan to destroy the Watch. 

Everybody keeps asking where Benjen is. He's dead and so are the other four missing rangers. The only reason why Othor and Jafer were found was, because the Watch wanted to lure the Watch to send out more men to search for Benjen. We all know what happened shortly after: the attack at the Fist of the First Men, and then the death of Lord Commander Jeor Mormont at Craster's Keep. These were huge victories for the wildings. 

When they captured Jon Snow, they probably could hardly believe their good luck. Any wildling could have killed Jon, but they didn't. Why? Because they are waging a war based on propaganda, and Jon provided an opportunity to persuade other men of the Watch that the wildlings were just people like themselves and that they are separate from the monster wights and white walkers. This idea has been working. They were ushered through the Wall, and now stage 3 has begun: kill the Watch.

The wildlings are the smiling enemy that Melisandre warned Jon about.

[Ser Hedge]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

IMO, it would be completely stupid for Ramsay to send the letter and add reinforcements to the armies surrounding Winterfell.

Not if Ramsay believes that the other armies have been dealt with. The Crowfood band may already have been smashed and Stannis could have misled Roose and Ramsay about his defeat and death (using Tybald's WF ravens or sending his men disguised as Freys and maybe some Manderleys and Karstarks) with his sword and some heads. The other PL thread has just gone over this a few times.

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

IMO, Mance is the author of the letter and that the true motive was to get Jon to leave the Wall. It had nothing to do with saving his ass at Winterfell, but to cause chaos and disorder at the Wall.

Mance doesn't know Tormund's 3000 (the number includes non-combatants) have arrived. So, not sure how much chaos could have been created with Val, Wun-Wun and a few dozens others at CB and the SWs at Long Barrow. Maybe it's possible.

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If you've read my theory that the wildlings are the Others, then you'd see this move as part of the wildling plan to destroy the Watch. 

If this theory is true, that vindicates all Wildling-haters like Marsh and Thorne. The scenes where the wildlings pass through the wall and earlier when they surrendered to Stannis and were forced to burn Weirwood (renounce their faith) just in order to survive completely lose their potency IMO and it becomes a bit Tarantino, not so much JRRT + tax policy.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The only reason why Othor and Jafer were found was, because the Watch wanted to lure the Watch to send out more men to search for Benjen. We all know what happened shortly after: 

This is an interesting 'loose end' certainly. I guess the most obvious explanation is that the WW were already free to move around the haunted forest (hence the name I suppose) and weren't necessarily systematically coming down from the north driving the wildlings before them. In fact when they fought the watch at the fist, I guess they were actually south of Mance's army IIRC?

But to your point, do the Others have more wilding collaborators like Craster? That's certainly interesting, but all wildlings IMO no. 

 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Mance doesn't know Tormund's 3000 (the number includes non-combatants) have arrived. So, not sure how much chaos could have been created with Val, Wun-Wun and a few dozens others at CB and the SWs at Long Barrow. Maybe it's possible.

Tormond is one of Mance's "generals". He knows Mance's plans. I even suspect that one of his sons (Torwynd) transformed into a white walker. 

If you want more information about why I think the wildlings are the Others, you can join me on the reread thread. That way we won't derail this thread with an off-topic discussion.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

If this theory is true, that vindicates all Wildling-haters like Marsh and Thorne. The scenes where the wildlings pass through the wall and earlier when they surrendered to Stannis and were forced to burn Weirwood (renounce their faith) just in order to survive completely lose their potency IMO and it becomes a bit Tarantino, not so much JRRT + tax policy.

Ironically Marsh and Thorne were right all along. I have the feeling that the reason why Bowen was crying when he stabbed Jon was, because participating in a mutiny was a last ditch desperate move for him. He needed to prevent any members of the Watch from leaving. The wildlings were already through the Wall and he likely suspects that they will be turning against them very soon, but you can't depend upon a Lord Commander for leadership that doesn't recognize the enemy.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

This is an interesting 'loose end' certainly. I guess the most obvious explanation is that the WW were already free to move around the haunted forest (hence the name I suppose) and weren't necessarily systematically coming down from the north driving the wildlings before them. In fact when they fought the watch at the fist, I guess they were actually south of Mance's army IIRC?

The wildling horde was following the white walkers - not the other way around. The white walkers and wights were acting like a military vanguard.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

But to your point, do the Others have more wilding collaborators like Craster? That's certainly interesting, but all wildlings IMO no. 

 

Craster is a red herring, and I've detailed my thoughts about his situation here: Black Blood and a Heavy Curse

I've also written my reasoning for why I believe Benjen is dead.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Not if Ramsay believes that the other armies have been dealt with. The Crowfood band may already have been smashed and Stannis could have misled Roose and Ramsay about his defeat and death (using Tybald's WF ravens or sending his men disguised as Freys and maybe some Manderleys and Karstarks) with his sword and some heads. The other PL thread has just gone over this a few times.

 

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Mance doesn't know Tormund's 3000 (the number includes non-combatants) have arrived. So, not sure how much chaos could have been created with Val, Wun-Wun and a few dozens others at CB and the SWs at Long Barrow. Maybe it's possible.

Exactly. There is no way for Mance to know about Tormund and his group. In fact, Mance can’t even consider that a possibility, since Jon sends Val in search of Tormund after Mance has left. 

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

If this theory is true, that vindicates all Wildling-haters like Marsh and Thorne. The scenes where the wildlings pass through the wall and earlier when they surrendered to Stannis and were forced to burn Weirwood (renounce their faith) just in order to survive completely lose their potency IMO and it becomes a bit Tarantino, not so much JRRT + tax policy.

Again, agree wholeheartedly. Also, there’s absolutely no textual support for anything like that at all. 

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

This is an interesting 'loose end' certainly. I guess the most obvious explanation is that the WW were already free to move around the haunted forest (hence the name I suppose) and weren't necessarily systematically coming down from the north driving the wildlings before them. In fact when they fought the watch at the fist, I guess they were actually south of Mance's army IIRC?

The WWs were on the move long before that. Mormont talks about WWs being seen by fishermen back in AGoT, to Tyrion. 

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

But to your point, do the Others have more wilding collaborators like Craster? That's certainly interesting, but all wildlings IMO no. 

Well, we don’t even know if Craster has an actual agreement/arrangement w/ the WWs. He leaves his sons in the woods, and tells his daughter-wives that they have to do it to stay safe. I think it’s all bollocks, and he is just getting rid of future threats to himself. The daughter-wives believe because they’ve been Stockholm-syndromed into believing anything he says. The plot this demands, or else, as Mormont says, why don’t they kill him? And yes, maybe the WWs are taking the babies and doing whatever to them. Or maybe not. Or even, to them it doesn’t matter whether it’s humans, goats, sheep. We don’t have enough info to be sure.