The KoLT and Subsequent Events

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Nevets said:

I doubt that.  Given that everybody and his brother and their families was there, I don't think the absence of the Stark girl would have been noticed, or remarked on even if it was. and the most that could be discerned from the voice would (maybe) be that it wasn't an adult male.  However, Jaime was 15 at the time, and there is a long tradition of underage boys sneaking in as mystery knights (e.g., Barristan at age 10).  That would be more likely believed than it being a girl.  And without knowing what connects the squires, there is no reason to suspect Lyanna in any event.

Fair points. I still contend that the absence of Lyanna Stark, only daughter of Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell, would have been noticed, particularly by Varys. I doubt very much that it was only on the last day that she would have been seated front and center near Elia to receive her garland.

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There is plenty of text saying that Robert, and others, believe that Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna.  Others, like Barristan, believe that they were in love.  None of them witnessed anything, or has even heard from anyone who did.  I expect that the truth is somewhere in the middle.  Assuming we get a definitive answer, which I doubt.  Probably more details, but nothing conclusive.

Exactly, no one that we know of actually witnessed any of this. So my point is merely that if the story of the kidnapping could be false, then so can the story of their love. The assumption that Martin, like most other writers, hides his truths behind one lie -- and if you see through that lie you've discovered the truth -- is simple wrong-headed. There are numerous examples of him hiding truths under multiple lies and misperceptions. That's one of the things that makes his writing so intriguing.

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Oh, we have red herrings in RLJ.  Wylla and Ashara Dayne qualify in that respect.  I think it is clear neither of them is his mother.

Right, but why draw this arbitrary line in the sand and say that Wylla, Ashara and the kidnap story are red herrings, but not the love story? None of it is confirmed, so there is a plethora of possibilities still in play, including the Aerys kidnapped them both. But now that I think on it, my alt theory about Aerys finding out about their elopement and sending the KG after them is sounding more reasonable. But you know me; I'm chock full of nutty ideas. 

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I will have to come back, but for now... no, that's not what I'm saying. Not at all. It is you who have been considering Robert's belief while altogether dismissing Selmy's. 

Um, no, that is precisely the opposite of what I'm saying. I'm saying that it is possible -- not certain, mind you, but possible -- that neither story is true. Rhaegar neither kidnapped nor ran away with Lyanna; that Aerys took them both and then forced Rhaegar to lead his host or see his family brutally killed.

This gives us an intelligent, noble crown prince acting intelligently and nobly, a mad king acting madly, and a kingsguard that is either obeying their king in honor of their vows, or possibly sacrificing their honor for a greater good.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Sorry, I also misread you it seems. I wasn't arguing against your theory, I was arguing that Rhaegar didn't rape Lyanna, but as you so rightly point-out Dany and Barristan both explicitly express that Rhaegar loved Lyanna, a glaring oversight on my behalf, and that does change my opinion on it being love, from Rhaegar's perspective at least. And thank you for reminding me of that, as I have always believed Rhaegar's primary motive was duty.

Like I said, I believe there is an extra layer to the ToJ concerning the song of ice and fire as opposed to the game of thrones. I don't support any theory that puts Jon on the Iron Throne or means he was born legit, so I snipped that criticism as it doesn't really apply to me.

As for the purple wedding, Arryn murder, etc. I don't disagree with you. I'm was just demonstrating a rule of thumb, not an exact science because GRRM says he likes to establish patterns so that he can break them, simply a rule of thumb we can use when it comes to mysteries in the series. And it is a rule of thumb that stands up in every one of the cases you cited, in that in-world characters will not solve mysteries for the reader until the reveal.

 

Lol, not to throw a curve now, but to be intellectually honest we must also accept the possibility that one of these stories may in fact be the truth. 

I'll bring up the whole valonqar thing. Cersei think's it's Tyrion, so people reject that because it's too obvious. It must be Jaime then, since we have that little bit about Cersei being born first. No, others point out, it's the valonquar, not her valonqar, so it could be anyone from Stannis to Tommen to Gendry to Euron to Brown Ben. But I will laugh my arse off if it turns out to be Tyrion. 

[John Suburbs]

56 minutes ago, corbon said:

I'm about done here. I'm not sure what it is anymore, but you just refuse to pay attention to what as said and continually misrepresent what I say in a mismatch of other ideas.
We agree, the KG obeys the King and will never go against his orders.
If they command him to clap the prince in irons they will - at least if they do not they will consider themselves and be considered by others as oathbreakers and forsworn.

But Rhaegar never needs to tell them to 'slip back to the ToJ without the kings leave'. They don't need the kings leave to go away, they are already away, already following the kings orders, and have received no countermanding orders from the king. They are already absent the king, at the King's command, and lawfully following Rhaegar's orders so long as it does not break their vows. 

Nobody is suggesting they are defying the King! Except you, when you mismatch my explanations with your ideas.

Sorry, but this still falls flat. They are now obeying the king's command to watch Rhaegar's bastard even though the king could care less about Rhaeger's legitimate children? Why would he do this? Aerys is convinced Rhaegar is out to get him. Why not just put him on trial when Brandon and Rickon show up, and then expose him as either a kidnapper and rapist or at the very least a love-struck fool who can no longer be trusted to put the realm's needs above his own base desires? And at no time when the armies are marching on him does he think maybe he should recall the three most formidable knights in the land to come to his aid?

I'm a big fan of clues, but when you interpret them to reach conclusions that fly in the face of so much established text, it's time to rethink your interpretations.

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R&L in love is not a 'pillar'.
 

Well, it sure sounds like it, with the blue roses symbolizing love not rape and Aerys caring so deeply about their child that he guts his own protection to send it to him.

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Aerys didn't 'order the KG to the ToJ'. He ordered two of them to protect Rhaegar and his family (we don't know the exact wording, but thats the apparent effect) and they follow Rhaegar around Westeros for a long time without coming back to KL and getting new orders from the King. The other was told to go find Rhaegar and get him back (again, we don;t know the exact wording) and has done exactly that but not yet returned to KL for new orders from the King. They end up at the ToJ while following the orders Aerys gave them, which is significantly different from being directly ordered to be there.

You'll also note that Hightower was sent to get Rhaegar to take command of the war effort (as always, we don;t know the exact wording, only the effects). It is Rhaegar who is deciding which KG go where once he is in command, as per the orders of the King. and with acknowledgment of the Kings needs. Legally apparently. You'll note that when Jaime pleads to leave another in his place as Rhaegar is leaving for the Trident, its Rhaegar who is choosing who goes and stays. But doing so with an eye to the needs and wishes of the King. And with the Kings agreement, apparently. Certainly no one, not even you, is accusing Darry, Selmy and Martell of treason for leaving with Rhaegar. 

You keep insisting that my explanations have them abandoning their vows. I keep explaining that they are not, and you ignore the explanations and come back with the same insistence that I am having them abandon their vows and honour.

Not only are you making all this up, but you are contradicting yourself in the process. So all three of these KG are galavanting around a Westeros that is now in turmoil just so Rhaegar can be safe while enjoying himself. Then we have HT suddenly back in KL so that Aerys can send him back out to retrieve Rhaegar -- not to bring him back personally but to just tell him to come home on his honor. So then HT reads that to mean he can go wherever and do whatever, just as long as it falls under the general heading of "protecting the royal family." And this would include Jon because they are absolutely sure that the lords that they have just angered will be pleased as punch to award Rhaegar with a another wife that he has just stolen from her father and her betrothed.

"Doing so with an eye to the needs and the wishes of the king"? And it is the needs and wishes of the king that his three most powerful warriors absent themselves from the king in a time of war to babysit Rhaegar's by-blow? In what possible way could that be in accordance with the needs and wishes of the king? Come on, you can't seriously believe this.

 

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

That wouldn’t be a reveal, but rather an asspull. And that’s definitely not Martin’s style. This fits exactly w/ an example given by the man himself. Brb.

Here it is, @John Suburbs. 

“He conceded that internet speculation and conspiracy theories abound about how the story will unravel – but that did not influence him, even though he had been dropping clues along the way. "I've been planting all these clues that the butler did it, then you're halfway through a series and suddenly thousands of people have figured out that the butler did it, and then you say the chambermaid did it? No, you can't do that."

In this case, Aerys kidnapping and holding Lyanna (w/ or w/o Rhaegar), and raping her and fathering a child on her is... the chambermaid. 

And yet this is exactly what he did with the Arryn murder. They weren't even just clues but outright statements by countless characters, right up to Pycelle saying point blank "she wanted him dead."

So I don't know where you asspulled that quote from, but we have seen Martin do this over and over again. Just because you have arbitrarily decided what your clues mean doesn't mean you are even close to being correct.

 

[kissdbyfire]

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And yet this is exactly what he did with the Arryn murder. They weren't even just clues but outright statements by countless characters, right up to Pycelle saying point blank "she wanted him dead."

So I don't know where you asspulled that quote from, but we have seen Martin do this over and over again. Just because you have arbitrarily decided what your clues mean doesn't mean you are even close to being correct.

  

It is obvious we are not going to agree o anything. And I’m  not sure why you’re saying I asspulled that quote. It’s possible we are using asspull in completely different ways, but that shall remain a mystery for the ages. 

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Fair points. I still contend that the absence of Lyanna Stark, only daughter of Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell, would have been noticed, particularly by Varys. I doubt very much that it was only on the last day that she would have been seated front and center near Elia to receive her garland.

As I recall, it was the early part of the tournament, and there were other events and competitions going on simultaneously.  So her absence wouldn't be noticed.  It's quite possible that Varys found out who it was by questioning the squires, same as Rhaegar.

Ceertainly, by the end of the tourney, she would have been seated prominently.  But not necessarily before that.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but this still falls flat. They are now obeying the king's command to watch Rhaegar's bastard even though the king could care less about Rhaeger's legitimate children? Why would he do this? Aerys is convinced Rhaegar is out to get him.

No, they are probably obeying the King's command to obey Rhaegar.   And if Rhaegar tells them to guard his wife and child, they will do so.

Rhaegar may have believed that he could marry polygamously.  After all, we know that Targaryens were able to marry incestuously, something normally forbidden, so he could have thought he could get away with more than one wife.  In that event, they would have been carrying out Rhaegar's legitimate orders at the ToJ.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And at no time when the armies are marching on him does he think maybe he should recall the three most formidable knights in the land to come to his aid?

Unless those knights come with an army in their back pocket, like Llewyn Martell, they aren't likely to do much good.  And Barristan and Darry were with Rhaegar in the field.

By the way, he was already in a position to threaten Rhaegar's family, as Elia and her children were still in the Red Keep under the watchful eye of Jaime Lannister.

 

 

[corbon]

10 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As I recall, it was the early part of the tournament, and there were other events and competitions going on simultaneously.  So her absence wouldn't be noticed.  It's quite possible that Varys found out who it was by questioning the squires, same as Rhaegar.

Ceertainly, by the end of the tourney, she would have been seated prominently.  But not necessarily before that.

 

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"The tourney Lord Whent staged at Harrenhal beside the Gods Eye, in the year of the false spring. A notable event. Besides the jousting, there was a mêlée in the old style fought between seven teams of knights, as well as archery and axe-throwing, a horse race, a tournament of singers, a mummer show, and many feasts and frolics. Lord Whent was as open handed as he was rich. The lavish purses he proclaimed drew hundreds of challengers. Even your royal father came to Harrenhal, when he had not left the Red Keep for long years. The greatest lords and mightiest champions of the Seven Kingdoms rode in that tourney, and the Prince of Dragonstone bested them all."

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"Five days of jousting were planned," she said. "There was a great seven-sided mêlée as well, and archery and axe-throwing, a horse race and tourney of singers . . ."

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"As my prince commands. The daughter of the castle was the queen of love and beauty, with four brothers and an uncle to defend her, but all four sons of Harrenhal were defeated on the first day. Their conquerors reigned briefly as champions, until they were vanquished in turn. As it happened, the end of the first day saw the porcupine knight win a place among the champions, and on the morning of the second day the pitchfork knight and the knight of the two towers were victorious as well. But late on the afternoon of that second day, as the shadows grew long, a mystery knight appeared in the lists."

 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, not to throw a curve now, but to be intellectually honest we must also accept the possibility that one of these stories may in fact be the truth. 

Absolutely. Like I  said, it's only a rule of thumb. But it is a technique GRRM favors a lot, as seen in the mysteries that have been confirmed in the series so far, but I'm not suggesting he's a one-trick pony. Far from it.

 

 

 

[corbon]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not only are you making all this up, but you are contradicting yourself in the process. So all three of these KG are galavanting around a Westeros that is now in turmoil just so Rhaegar can be safe while enjoying himself.

 

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With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

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Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. 

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If this tale be believed, 'twas Prince Rhaegar who urged Lord Walter to hold the tourney, using his lordship's brother Ser Oswell as a gobetween. 

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"I make no such claim, ser. Myles Mooton was Prince Rhaegar's squire, and Richard Lonmouth after him. When they won their spurs, he knighted them himself, and they remained his close companions. Young Lord Connington was dear to the prince as well, but his oldest friend was Arthur Dayne."

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Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

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 When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, 

I can't find the reference for Hightower being sent to get Rhaegar, most like it was a SSM. 

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He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father.

 Dayne is Rhaegar's closest companion.
Whent is supposedly his go between for the Tourney at Harrenhal, therefore also closely associated with him.
The KG duties include protecting the King's family and they are often detached to do so.
Rhaegar and some companions departed KL in the new year in a journey that took them to Harrenhal where they "fell upon" Lyanna.
Whent and Dayne are next seen at ToJ with Lyanna.
There is no mention anywhere of Whent or Dayne being declared or thought of as traitors or forsworn by anyone on either side, and clearly they didn't think so when they spoke to Ned. Same goes for Hightower.
Hightower is a noted loyalist. Oddly he is not mentioned when the KG members are sent off on various tasks following the Battle of the Bells. Later Rhaegar mysterious reappears. Still later, Hightower is found with Lyanna and the other 2 KG closely associated with Rhaegar.
No one ever mentions these KG are traitors, or abandoned their vows, or abandoned Aerys. Barristan, Jaime and Ned all speak of them with the greatest of respect.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

"Doing so with an eye to the needs and the wishes of the king"? 

 

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The day had been windy when he said farewell to Rhaegar, in the yard of the Red Keep. The prince had donned his night-black armor, with the three-headed dragon picked out in rubies on his breastplate. "Your Grace," Jaime had pleaded, "let Darry stay to guard the king this once, or Ser Barristan. Their cloaks are as white as mine."

Prince Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."

[corbon]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 especially since he is convinced that Rhaegar is planning to depose him.

Aerys vacillates between distrusting Rhaegar and relying on him at different times. In the end, he relies on him.

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"No." It all came back to him. Jon Connington had been Prince Rhaegar's friend. When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship. 

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Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth.

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The royalist forces were left reeling and scattered by such victories though they did their best to rally. The Kingsguard were dispatched to recover the remnant of Lord Connington's force, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south to take command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands. 

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and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father

 

[corbon]

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King Aerys II was not a man to take any joy in mysteries, however. His Grace became convinced that the tree on the mystery knight's shield was laughing at him, and—with no more proof than that—decided that the mystery knight was Ser Jaime Lannister. His newest Kingsguard had defied him and returned to the tourney, he told every man who would listen.

Furious, he commanded his own knights to defeat the Knight of the Laughing Tree when the jousts resumed the next morning, so that he might be unmasked and his perfidy exposed for all to see. But the mystery knight vanished during the night, never to be seen again. This too the king took ill, certain that someone close to him had given warning to "this traitor who will not show his face."

An interesting point. Aerys wasn't interested in the Mystery Knight per se, but in exposing Jaime's supposed perfidy.

If the KotLT is not Jaime, he's not of any real interest to Aerys...

 

[three-eyed monkey]

On 1/9/2019 at 12:33 AM, corbon said:

The third, Hightower, was expressly dispatched by Aerys to find Rhaegar.

Sorry, haven't been on RLJ thread since version 30 something and I know you're well-versed.

What's the consensus on why Hightower stayed at ToJ rather than returning with Rhaegar?

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is obvious we are not going to agree o anything. And I’m  not sure why you’re saying I asspulled that quote. It’s possible we are using asspull in completely different ways, but that shall remain a mystery for the ages. 

Cheers, mate, but the fact remains: whatever Martin may or may not have meant by that quote, his actual writings show example after example of him leading the reader to one conclusion over and over again only to unveil the actual hidden conclusion in a highly dramatic (or sometimes undramatic) fashion. This is really not all that unique to Martin either; it's basically the standard set-up for virtually every mystery novel ever written.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

As I recall, it was the early part of the tournament, and there were other events and competitions going on simultaneously.  So her absence wouldn't be noticed.  It's quite possible that Varys found out who it was by questioning the squires, same as Rhaegar.

Ceertainly, by the end of the tourney, she would have been seated prominently.  But not necessarily before that.

Eh, maybe. But the jousting is the premiere event featuring all the noble lords and knights, including her brothers and her betrothed. It also involves horses, which she is mad for. It would be very odd if she was not there because she's watching a bunch of commoners shoot arrows and throw axes. But as you say, since she was the one who upbraided the squires in the first place and now this mystery knight is insisting that these knights discipline these very same squires, it doesn't take a genius to figure it out.

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No, they are probably obeying the King's command to obey Rhaegar.   And if Rhaegar tells them to guard his wife and child, they will do so.

And nobody, not even Aerys, would question this order? Here is the situation: the northern army has entered the theater and has linked up with the Tully, Arryn and remnants of the Baratheon hosts. This is the moment even Aerys realizes his reign, and his head, are in deep trouble, which is why he called Rhaegar back to create and lead a royal host to confront them. Meanwhile, Lyanna is in about the safest place on the continent she could possibly be: tucked away in a secret location between Dorne and the Reach -- the only realms still loyal to the king -- with half-a-continent of mountains between her and the nearest hostile region and hundreds of miles away from the coast so that she is not even accessible by sea. And yet Aerys still thinks it is perfectly OK for her to have not one, not two, but three of the most well-trained, well-armed and lethal knights in the kingdom to protect her? And if just one of those knights, let alone two, had been on the Trident with Rhaegar, the battle would have very likely gone the other way.

And I'm sorry, but the whole idea that Aerys would just give over command of the KG to the son he thinks is trying to overthrow him is simply not tenable. And then to have Rhaegar squander these valuable resources, dwindling Aerys' own protection down to just one kid of dubious loyalty, all so he can protect the very girlfriend that is the cause of all this trouble for Aerys? Sorry, but no way, no how. Rhaegar has command over the host, sure, but the KG is Aerys'. They should either be in the field marching against his foes or at his side protecting him. That is their job.

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Rhaegar may have believed that he could marry polygamously.  After all, we know that Targaryens were able to marry incestuously, something normally forbidden, so he could have thought he could get away with more than one wife.  In that event, they would have been carrying out Rhaegar's legitimate orders at the ToJ.

If Rhaegar believed this then he truly was mad, in complete contradiction to the memories of everyone who knew him, even Ned. No Targ has taken more than one wife since Maegor, and that nearly set the realm on fire and led to decades of hostility between the crown and the faith. No one has ever even tried to use the DoE to have two wives. So for him to first abscond with a high lord's daughter, who is already betrothed to another high lord, when he is already married to the daughter of yet another high lord and think that he can marry her in secret and that everyone will just be OK with this is sheer madness.

And this flies completely in the face of Aerys' subsequent actions. He thinks Rhaegar is a traitor, trying to usurp his crown. Whether this abduction was forced or not, this is the perfect opportunity to expose Rhaegar's unfitness to rule, given that he is so willing to light the realm on fire just to satisfy is own personal lusts.

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Unless those knights come with an army in their back pocket, like Llewyn Martell, they aren't likely to do much good.  And Barristan and Darry were with Rhaegar in the field.

By the way, he was already in a position to threaten Rhaegar's family, as Elia and her children were still in the Red Keep under the watchful eye of Jaime Lannister.

Aren't likely to do much good? Are you serious? The White Bull? The Sword of the Morning, with his magic sword? These are the most capable, experienced and lethal knights in all the world. Robert B barely survived the battle. What do you supposed would have happened if he had to fight his way through these two "aren't like to do much good" knights before he got to Rhaegar? How many rebel knights and rebel soldiers do you think would have perished under their lances and by their blades had they been there? How valuable would their tactical and strategic military experience have been, let alone their mere presence on the battlefield leading the van or the flanks?

Llewyn, Selmy and Darry are excellent, to be sure, but Llewyn, Selmy, Darry, Hightower and Dayne would have been unstoppable, and that still would have left Whent and maybe half-a-dozen guardsmen to guard Lyanna against whatever roving band of thieves might have happened by. And that's only if they were intent on setting tongues wagging near Lyanna's secret location as to why there is a kingsguard way out here in the middle of nowhere when there is fighting going on.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, corbon said:

 

I can't find the reference for Hightower being sent to get Rhaegar, most like it was a SSM. 

 Dayne is Rhaegar's closest companion.
Whent is supposedly his go between for the Tourney at Harrenhal, therefore also closely associated with him.
The KG duties include protecting the King's family and they are often detached to do so.
Rhaegar and some companions departed KL in the new year in a journey that took them to Harrenhal where they "fell upon" Lyanna.
Whent and Dayne are next seen at ToJ with Lyanna.
There is no mention anywhere of Whent or Dayne being declared or thought of as traitors or forsworn by anyone on either side, and clearly they didn't think so when they spoke to Ned. Same goes for Hightower.
Hightower is a noted loyalist. Oddly he is not mentioned when the KG members are sent off on various tasks following the Battle of the Bells. Later Rhaegar mysterious reappears. Still later, Hightower is found with Lyanna and the other 2 KG closely associated with Rhaegar.
No one ever mentions these KG are traitors, or abandoned their vows, or abandoned Aerys. Barristan, Jaime and Ned all speak of them with the greatest of respect.

 

Sorry, but I don't see how any of this is relevant to what we are talking about. The issue is this:

Three of the most lethal knights in the realm are not with Rhaegar on the Trident, where they would most surely have led to victory, nor are they guarding the king, as is their sworn duty. Instead, they are hundreds of leagues away, sitting around doing nothing while Lyanna gestates. The question is why?

Is it because Lyanna is in such danger that she needs half the KG? Hardly. She is in about the safest place she could possibly be, tucked squarely between two loyal realms. Rhaegar could send any one of his non-KG friends with maybe six guardsmen to shoo off any thieves or brigands who might come by. In fact, surrounding her with KG is a sure way to draw attention to this "secret" location.

Is it because Aerys cares for her and her baby so much that he is willing to leave himself virtually unguarded for their sakes? No way. He already despises Rhaegar and his wife and children, why on earth would he suddenly be so caring for these other two?

Is it because Rhaegar commanded them to be there and that's the end of it? Nonsense. Paranoid Aerys would certainly see this as Rhaegar trying to remove his protection so he can take the crown after the war is won. There is absolutely no reason why Lyanna needs so much muscle and every reason in the world for either Rhaegar or Aerys to have it. Even if Aerys does not know where his KG are or how to reach them, Rhaegar is in no position to pull this kind of power game because Aerys still holds Elia and the two children.

So that leaves us with two possibilities: either Aerys wanted the KG with Lyanna for some unknown reason, or that all three of them are conspiring with Rhaegar to usurp Aerys' crown, which by definition would make them traitors, oath-breakers and dishonorable knights and would have most certainly led to the deaths of Elia and her children.

Ned, in fact, does question their loyalty in his fever dream:

Quote

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.

"We were not there," Ser Gerrold answered.

"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell.

"When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were."

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells."

But this is when it gets interesting:

Quote

"Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him."

"Ser Willem is a good man and true," said Ser Oswell.

"But not of the Kingsguard," Ser Gerold pointed out. "The Kingsguard does not flee"

"Then or now," said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

"We swore a vow," explained old Ser Gerold.

So Ned begins by asking why they are not honoring their vow to either the king or the royal family, and they simply tell him we were not there. Then he wonders why they are not with their new king, like Darry, and they say that Darry is not of the Kingsguard, meaning that they do not consider Viserys to be the king. And finally, Ser Gerold says, "we swore a vow"

Could this vow simply be their original KG vow? Doubtful, considering they broke those vows when they failed to protect both Rhaegar and Aerys. Is this a new vow they made to Rhaegar? Possibly, since they also insist that the KG should be with the king. But still, by definition, this would make then traitors and oath-breakers, and we still have the problem of why Aerys simply doesn't use Elia and the children to force Rhaegar to recall them.

So this is why I end up with this being a vow they made to Aerys. Remember, Aerys was planning to either survive the war or escape KL in dragon-form, so he certainly would have had plans for the baby who sings the Song of Ice and Fire, even if it means lying to these noble, honorable KG that he has anointed this child as the new crown prince so they have reason to sit out the war and protect him.

 

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Aerys vacillates between distrusting Rhaegar and relying on him at different times. In the end, he relies on him.

 

No, he does not rely on him. He has Rhaegar over a barrel because if he does not cooperate he is going to see and hear is wife and children die in the most horrific, painful way imaginable. Can you just picture Rhaegar sitting there in the throne room as little Rhaenys, who has just seen her baby brother and heard his screams as they dripped wildfire all over him until he died, is tied down to experience the same thing? Can you hear Elia's crying and pleading to Rhaegar to please, for all that is holy and good, just do what your father says? Can you see why this would cause Rhaegar to tell Jaime that "changes will be made" rather than if Aerys had simply decided to once again trust Rhaegar on a whim? And this is especially true since it was supposedly Rhaegar's mad act, not Aerys', that led them to this point to begin with.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

An interesting point. Aerys wasn't interested in the Mystery Knight per se, but in exposing Jaime's supposed perfidy.

If the KotLT is not Jaime, he's not of any real interest to Aerys…

 

He is if it means his knights were unhorsed by a woman. This is why he needs it to be Jaime, except Rhaegar ruined that plan by saying he found the armor under a tree, with Jaime nowhere in sight. And then the very next day Rhaegar signals to the entire court that he knew, as everyone knew, that it was Lyanna all along.

Aerys is now seething, so what does he do? He snatches both R and L and concocts the whole kidnapping story, because, you know, Rhaegar is so entirely smitten with this wild wolf girl.

[corbon]

8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Sorry, haven't been on RLJ thread since version 30 something and I know you're well-versed.

What's the consensus on why Hightower stayed at ToJ rather than returning with Rhaegar?

Well, I used to be a regular. Its been a few years now.

I think its most likely that Aerys' orders were to get Rhaegar back to KL and Rhaegar said I'll go back if you stay here, so he stayed here.
If Rhaegar didn't want Aerys to find Lyanna (and if Aerys knew where she was she'd surely be in even greater danger than Elia), then he couldn't afford any of the KG who knew where she was to actually return to Aerys where they could be questioned and forced by their vows to expose Lyanna.
Unless Hightower was given specific orders to return, rather than get Rhaegar to return, then he wouldn't be breaking a vow to Aerys.

In essence, we have very little no real information here, other than the fact that no one in-world questions the honour and loyalty of the White Bull (or the others, but especially him). Not Aerys, not Jaime, not Selmy, not Ned (well, he questions them at ToJ, but their answers apparently satisfy him, because later he calls them the finest knights he knew), not the three KG at ToJ themselves.
As far as I am concerned, if all those parties fail to condemn them, and we don't have any actual reason to condemn them other than the irrational rantings of some readers, then they clearly were acting faithfully and honourably. At least until we get new information.

We also have clear indication that the three KG believe that if they had been at the Trident, Aerys would still live and be King. (Not that I am as certain as they that three men, no matter how skilled, could sway a battle - Rhaegar and Selmy were two of the 3 foremost Knights of the Realm anyway.) So AFAIAC they are loyal to their vows and Aerys. They may support Rhaegar, but not against their vows to protect the King etc.

[Bastard of Bournemouth]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Llewyn, Selmy and Darry are excellent, to be sure, but Llewyn, Selmy, Darry, Hightower and Dayne would have been unstoppable,

I think your theory's interesting, and I wouldn't personally rule anything out until we get it from Howland Reed, Ashara Dayne; Darkstar, or whoever the hell does know. Your analysis of mystery writing is also spot on. There's always at least one, and usually multiple, hard sells. 

I'm not sure about the above though. Didn't Ned and a few of his mates do in three King's guard at the Tower of Joy? I know it's not all about swordsmanship and I'm not disputing their strategic acumen, but were any of them renowned for maverick stuff a la R-Bazzy and the Young Wolf? Maybe Dayne with his Hearts and minds of the people stuff in the Kingswood, but still: would they have conjured up some brilliant new tactic not considered by Rhaegar, Selmy, Martell etc? I dunno...