Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

[Nagini's Neville]

3 minutes ago, teej6 said:

Because Cersei states as much in a later book — she clearly states that she wanted Ned to take the black. She’s smart enough to know the value of Ned as a hostage alive. 

I know that

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No, Cersei is not controlling Joff when he abuses Sansa cause she doesn’t care about Sansa. All Cersei cares is to keep Sansa alive, nothing more. 

Sansa could have easily died through the beatings though. No one was supervising Joffrey as how far to take it. One wrong blow and it's over. 

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Of course LF is smarter than Cersei and he’s also quite possibly the smartest person in the books. Since he’s so smart, he’s not going to have Ned killed in a manner that it comes back to him. He’s going to wait for the opportune moment to present itself where no one will suspect it was his idea. Such an opportunity presented itself when Ned publicly confessed to treason. LF could have easily slipped the idea of killing Ned to Joffrey in a manner that stupid Joffrey assumed it was his all along. Again, I don’t know this for a fact, it is only a theory that has been floating around for years. 

You said yourself, that we don't even know if it was LF and we don't even know, if it happened at all. 

If it was him, of course he wouldn't have done it in a way, that it comes back to him. Doesn't mean he wouldn't have found a different way it wouldn't have come back to him, maybe still through stupid Joffrey. And if he indeed advised stupid J to execute Ned it also could have come back to him somehow.

[teej6]

19 minutes ago, Nagini's Neville said:

You said yourself, that we don't even know if it was LF and we don't even know, if it happened at all. 

We do know that it was not an “accident” that Ned was executed. Whether it was Joffrey solely deciding to kill Ned or someone else manipulating him to do so, the fact remains that had Ned not agreed to confess to treason, Cersei would have made sure he remained a prisoner/ hostage and alive to serve her purpose. Cersei would not have brought him to the Sept of Baelor in front of half of KL if he didn’t agree to her terms. And if she had not done that, it is almost certain that Joffrey could not give a command for Ned’s execution. And even if he did, Cersei would have dismissed it and found a way to distract the twerp in other ways.  And the only reason Ned agreed to Cersei’s terms was to save Sansa. Ned would never give up his honor to save his life or under torture, that much we can be sure of.

[Nagini's Neville]

2 minutes ago, teej6 said:

We do know that it was not an “accident” that Ned was executed. Whether it was Joffrey solely deciding to kill Ned or someone else manipulating him to do so, the fact remains that had Ned not agreed to confess to treason, Cersei would have made sure he remained a prisoner/ hostage and alive to serve her purpose. Cersei would not have brought him to the Sept of Baelor in front of half of KL if he didn’t agree to her terms. And if she had not done that, it is almost certain that Joffrey could not give a command for Ned’s execution. And even if he did, Cersei would have dismissed it and found a way to distract the twerp in other ways.  And the only reason Ned agreed to Cersei’s terms was to save Sansa. Ned would never give up his honor to save his life or under torture, that much we can be sure of.

You know that torture doesn't work that way, that you only say what you want to, right? That's the point of it. Most people admit something.

So if Joff had already decided to kill Ned, he might have found another way. I disagree that we 100 % know, that Cersei would have been able to prevent it. 

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, teej6 said:

Here’s the timeline I can remember from the books:

- Ned makes arrangements for Sansa and Arya to leave KL. While Ned is having the conversation about their departure with his daughters (which happened at night as Sansa and Arya were having supper), he realizes from Sansa’s comment that Cersei’s kids are fathered by Jamie.

(Just checking a few details, not arguing especially.)

It's midday, in the solar. No arrangements made yet, but Ned is looking for a ship, a fast trading galley.

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- the next day at sunset, Ned reveals to Cersei he know the truth about her and Jamie. By this time Robert had already set out for his hunt. It’s not clear if Cersei had by this time already instructed Lancel to provide the strongwine to Robert.

Yes. And Robert had gone hunting before his conversation with his daughters above, and before Beric went out.

It's not clear about the strongwine, true. I'm guessing it went out before the conversation with Ned, because Joffrey and the Hound had recently left the hunt and come home - as if they'd been recalled to stop Joff getting mixed up in the dirty business.

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- the very same night of Ned’s conversation with Cersei, he receives the news of Robert’s hunting accident. This night he also refuses Renly’s offer and LF’s advice.

I don't think it's clear which night, but there is no advance news. Robert arrives mortally wounded, and it's said the injury happened two days before.  I can't  remember if LF advises him, but Ned does ask for the gold cloaks and agrees to bribe.

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- The next morning after breakfast I believe is when Sansa goes to Cersei. 

 - An hour after breakfast Pycelle informs Ned that Robert is dead. Then, Ned thinking he had the Gold Cloaks support challenges Cersei in the throne room.

Yep. Ned summons his council to his solar first, but is recalled to the throne room before he can be confirmed regent.

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In the above timeline, we do not know when LF turned and got Janos Slynt and his Gold Cloaks behind Cersei. Did Cersei reach out to LF after Sansa came to her? Or did this happen before. It’s unclear. 

Wow. No. There are two thousand gold cloaks. Even persuading and bribing their commanders will take time - and then giving them their orders.  At council LF looked like he'd been up all night. There's no time to do it twice.

And surely you're not saying Cersei summoned LF because of something Sansa said?

Cersei is waiting for Robert to die. There is a brief window of opportunity after Robert's death and before Ned is proclaimed regent - in that moment Joff is king and attracts by default loyalty of the Kingsguard and all neutrals. If Cersei misses that slot, it will be Ned in the seat of power accusing her of treason, instead of the other way about. Her support might just collapse.

Cersei is in a hurry. And that is what she does. She gets Joff on the throne really fast, with the court and Kingsguard and gold cloaks about him.

(Sorry, not read all your posts yet, short of time, will do tomorrow.)

[Greywater-Watch]

Just found an interesting phrase in AGOT, Sansa III:

Sansa had attended the court session held by Ned Stark, where he gives command to capture Gregor Clegane to Beric Dondarrion, instead to Ser Loras Tyrell, whom Sansa favoured because of his "gallantry".

"Her father's decision still bewildered her. […]It had upset her more than she could tell. She had said as much to Septa Mordane as they descended the stairs from the Gallery, but the septa had only told her it was not herplace to question her lord father's decisions."

A clear reminder for Sansa not to question Eddard's decisions. I found this passage interesting, as it shows that Sansa was very well aware of this.

In AGOT, Sansa IV, she thinks back:

"She was the good girl, the obedient girl, but she had felt wicked as Arya that morning, sneaking away from Septa Mordane, defying her lord father."

I think this quote has already been mentioned in the thread. Just wanted to repeat it to make clear that Sansa knew she was acting against her father.

[sweetsunray]

On 1/5/2020 at 12:13 PM, teej6 said:

Ned telling Cersei that he knew the real paternity of her kids sets in motion Cersei’s plan to eliminate Robert and probably even Ned.

Actually, that's impossible. Ned spoke Cersei on the evening of the same day when Robert was gored in the morning. Robert was already gored and his death assured, before Ned even spoke to Cersei and alerted her of him knowing about her children not being Robert's. So, Ned's actions had nothing to do with Cersei's murder plans for Robert.

[Nagini's Neville]

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"Once she had loved Prince Joffrey with all her heart, and admired and trusted his mother, the queen. They had repaid that love and trust with her father’s head. Sansa would never make that mistake again."

Maybe that's what GRRM was talking about with "she accepted responsibility in part of her father's death"? Dunno

[Springwatch]

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Just found an interesting phrase in AGOT, Sansa III:

Sansa had attended the court session held by Ned Stark, where he gives command to capture Gregor Clegane to Beric Dondarrion, instead to Ser Loras Tyrell, whom Sansa favoured because of his "gallantry".

"Her father's decision still bewildered her. […]It had upset her more than she could tell. She had said as much to Septa Mordane as they descended the stairs from the Gallery, but the septa had only told her it was not herplace to question her lord father's decisions."

A clear reminder for Sansa not to question Eddard's decisions. I found this passage interesting, as it shows that Sansa was very well aware of this.

In AGOT, Sansa IV, she thinks back:

"She was the good girl, the obedient girl, but she had felt wicked as Arya that morning, sneaking away from Septa Mordane, defying her lord father."

I think this quote has already been mentioned in the thread. Just wanted to repeat it to make clear that Sansa knew she was acting against her father.

'wicked as Arya' means what? It means being instantly forgiven, and loved, and thanks-very-much-for-the-flowers. It means being rewarded with your father's attention. It means you can carry on exactly as you wished. Obedience is a mug's game in the Stark family, and Sansa only just realised it.

36 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Ned spoke Cersei on the evening of the same day when Robert was gored in the morning.

Is this something we can pin down? I don't want to rule anything out, because I remember now that Joff and Sandor came back with the news that the white hart was dead, and Robert was now hunting for a monstrous boar - a much better opportunity for Cersei.

[Springwatch]

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

You repeating the SSM is wrong over and over again does not make it wrong. I'm quite certain GRRM knows and understands his text and intent better than you, and in his stating that Sansa had a part to play in her father's downfall, there is no inconsistency with the text.

Your argument is one of simple faith. But does the author want that? What do you make of this?

It's gratifying to know I have readers who care so much, although if truth be told sometimes I get the scary feeling that you people know these books better than I do...

If that's not encouragement to think independently of SSM's, I don't know what is.

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

The only argument the reader can make, which GRRM also states, was what was the significance of Sansa's role in Ned's downfall? If Sansa did what she was told, would Sansa and Arya have been able to escape King's Landing,

Arya's position doesn't change. Sansa, in all probability, would be in the position of Jeyne Poole. Sansa's skills don't really equip her for this sort escape, and she can't be mistaken for a male street urchin.

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

and in doing so would this have put Ned and the Starks in a better position?

Not really? Ned would rather die than falsely confess to treason. If he knew Sansa and Arya were gone, he would be dead. I don't think this would cause problems for the Lannisters, because they have the letter to Stannis, and Ned is attainted traitor. Ironically, that probably puts him in the same position as Gared - summary justice is fine.

Lannisters lie of course, and Ned ends up dead anyway. Call it destiny.

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

 Would Cersei have moved against Ned so quickly or would she have waited for Robert to die? 

Ned had already made his move when he said he would lay the truth before Robert (as he was tempted to do).

For some reason characters in-world agree that Robert would passionately want to kill the abominations of incest, something he could easily have done even from his deathbed. So the whole time after Robert came back, Cersei could expect to see Ilyn Payne coming to kill her children, and then herself.

Her motivation could not be more extreme. But she needs to wait for Robert to die so Joff becomes king.

[sweetsunray]

 

17 hours ago, Springwatch said:

I don't think it's clear which night, but there is no advance news. Robert arrives mortally wounded, and it's said the injury happened two days before.  I can't  remember if LF advises him, but Ned does ask for the gold cloaks and agrees to bribe.

You can figure it out by Ned's remark on the planned timing when the Wind Witch was to set sail.

Eddard XII, the day he informs Cersei of what he knows of her children and gives her the opportunity to flee:

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Vayon Poole had arranged for Sansa and Arya to sail on the Wind Witch out of Braavos, three days hence.

He orders Fat Tom (new commander of his guard after Jory's death and Alyn's departure to the RL) in the same afternoon to help him get to the godswood.

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Late that afternoon he summoned Tomard, ... "I shall require your help," Ned said when Tomard appeared, looking faintly apprehensive, as he always did when called before his lord. "Take me to the godswood."

There he hands Tomard the note for Cersei to be delivered, while he waits in the godswood. And Cersei arrives at sunset.

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She [Cersei] came to him at sunset, as the clouds reddened, ....

So, Ned speaks to Cersei in the godswood three days before Sansa and Arya were to leave. And since Robert actually died an hour after breakfast, on the same day that Arya and Sansa were to sail, we therefore know that Ned spoke with Cersei three days before Robert died.

Robert was brought into the Red Keep, of KL, the night before. This means that Ned is woken and brought to see the dying Robert two days after speaking with Cersei, and the day before the arranged plans for his daughters. So, yes, we definitely know what night Robert managed to get back barely alive.

Pycelle gives us the timing on how long it took them to get Robert back.

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"It took them two days to get him back." (Eddard, XIII)

This means that at the latest, the hunting accident occurred during dawn, the morning after Ned spoke with Cersei, if Renly and Selmy immediately gathered Robert and brought him to the castle. Alternatively the accident happend the day before either at dawn or dusk, and thus either before Ned spoke with Cersei or during. Pycelle's declaration of "it took them two days to get him back" works for both situations. However, I'm inclined to suspect it was the same day as when Ned talked to Cersei, because we also learn from Ned that they tried to patch Robert somewhat, since his guts were falling out. So, they would have aimed to administer crude first aid in some way at the scene itself, which would have taken time, before actually making the trip.

Regardless, with Cersei only learning of Ned's knowledge of her children, it's impossible for her to arrange Lancel to receive an order from her in such short hours and get Robert so drunk with several skins of strongwine, when she had to send an extra messenger to Lancel during night hours. Cersei had already ordered Lancel to get the king killed by plying him with strongwine, before Ned spoke to her. 

However, it is certain that Renly and Selmy would have sent a messenger back to KL to inform Pycelle and Cersei of what had befallen Robert as soon as Robert was gored. Such a messenger would have done the distance in a day in daylight hours. And if the hunting accident occurred the morning on the same day when Ned spoke to Cersei at sunset, he confessed his knowledge to her, while Cersei was already certain that Robert was a dead man. Given that she's hardly phased by Ned's knowledge, it seems to me she expected Ned never being able to tell Robert the truth anyway.

 

 

 

[Springwatch]

29 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

You can figure it out by Ned's remark on the planned timing when the Wind Witch was to set sail....

Terrific! Thanks.

30 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

However, it is certain that Renly and Selmy would have sent a messenger back to KL to inform Pycelle and Cersei of what had befallen Robert as soon as Robert was gored. Such a messenger would have done the distance in a day in daylight hours. And if the hunting accident occurred the morning on the same day when Ned spoke to Cersei at sunset, he confessed his knowledge to her, while Cersei was already certain that Robert was a dead man.

A really interesting possibility. It would mean the message was hidden from Ned though, because Ned doesn't appear to know in advance.  Only a small risk to take, but not much benefit I can see.

30 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Given that she's hardly phased by Ned's knowledge, it seems to me she expected Ned never being able to tell Robert the truth anyway.

Not buying it. Ned is the man of honour, she couldn't count on him allowing a false will. Couldn't expect it even, because Ned as regent will make Stannis king, and a false will is an obstacle.

Besides - Cersei is brave, and she's willing to win or die in the GOT, but she would have found threats to her children intolerable.

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

A really interesting possibility. It would mean the message was hidden from Ned though, because Ned doesn't appear to know in advance.  Only a small risk to take, but not much benefit I can see.

Yes, that message would naturally have been hidden from Ned, and everybody else. Regardless of when it happened, it's to be expected that Selmy sends a messenger or a raven to Pycelle or Cersei to inform her about her husband's accident. Pycelle is the "healer" and Cersei is the queen. Cersei would naturally not inform Ned, as knowing things before someone else is important here. And if Robert were to die on the way to the Red Keep before Ned knows anything, the better.

Pycelle mentions his amazement of Robert managed to survive that long.

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"By right, he should be dead already. I have never seen a man cling to life so fiercely." (Eddard XIII)

11 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Not buying it. Ned is the man of honour, she couldn't count on him allowing a false will. Couldn't expect it even, because Ned as regent will make Stannis king, and a false will is an obstacle.

Regardless of what you assume Cersei could expect or not, Cersei attempts to stay by Robert's side while Ned is with him and Pycelle tries to give him milk of the poppy after Robert dismisses Cersei, before he can speak with Ned. So, yes attempts were made to prevent Ned from being alone with Robert, but Robert orders Cersei out and refuses Pycelle's milk of the poppy and sends Pycelle away before reciting his will to Ned. Only after the will is sealed does Robert order Pycelle to return and give him milk of the poppy.

18 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Besides - Cersei is brave, and she's willing to win or die in the GOT, but she would have found threats to her children intolerable.

The abomination is no reference, certainly not when it comes to the characterization of Cersei.

I don't think Cersei is "brave". As Ned says, one ought to be afraid in order to be brave, and Cersei is fearless. She would however never betray weakness against a threat. But you mistook my meaning of "Cersei not being phased". I didn't mean to say I expected her to act fearful or weak in her confrontation with Ned, no matter what she knew or didn't know already of Robert's accident.

Thing is, Cersei confesses all to Ned freely without Ned requiring to say much whatsoever. She volunteers that Jaime is her lover since they were children. Ned only has to ask, "My son Bran ..." and she volunteers Bran saw them together. It is the blunt volunteering of Cersei that I call "unphased". You don't volunteer such information that readily out of brevity, but because you believe you've won the game. On top of this, Cersei does not consider Ned an "honorable" man, and actually expects to be able to charm and bribe him.

Perhaps in your mind's eye you see Lena in her red dress talking to Ned Stark, but she's not wearing a queen's dress at all that day.

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For once she was dressed simply, in leather boots and hunting greens. When she drew back the hood of her brown cloak, he saw the bruise where the king had struck her.

How odd that Cersei was dressed this simple and in hunting greens with a hooded brown cloak if she spent her day in the castle? Sounds like she didn't, but went riding instead and may even pretended to be someone else than the queen (as she did in her days as handmaid to Aerys' wife), and that she just arrived back at the castle. 

Since we have a trial for regicide coming up in tWoW, and so far Lancel and Cersei haven't talked or recollected the actual murder plot of Robert, I expect George to shed some light why Cersei was dressed in simple riding clothes before meeting Ned and reveal a thing or two that goes against the impression that Varys tried to spin on Ned - that his honesty to Cersei killed Robert.

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Yes, that message would naturally have been hidden from Ned, and everybody else. Regardless of when it happened, it's to be expected that Selmy sends a messenger or a raven to Pycelle or Cersei to inform her about her husband's accident. Pycelle is the "healer" and Cersei is the queen. Cersei would naturally not inform Ned, as knowing things before someone else is important here. And if Robert were to die on the way to the Red Keep before Ned knows anything, the better.

It's possible. If Ned had such a message he might have ridden out to find his wounded best friend. A risk.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Regardless of what you assume Cersei could expect or not, Cersei attempts to stay by Robert's side while Ned is with him and Pycelle tries to give him milk of the poppy after Robert dismisses Cersei, before he can speak with Ned. So, yes attempts were made to prevent Ned from being alone with Robert, but Robert orders Cersei out and refuses Pycelle's milk of the poppy and sends Pycelle away before reciting his will to Ned. Only after the will is sealed does Robert order Pycelle to return and give him milk of the poppy.

She tried. But as it happened, Robert had an extended private conversation with Ned, and made a valid will, sealed and witnessed. She does not know what was said, nor what was in the will.

She should fear Robert. Even his best friend Ned thinks things like: I must save the children.... and This was something else: poison in the dark, a knife thrust to the soul. This he could never forgive, no more than he had forgiven Rhaegar. He will kill them all, Ned realized.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I don't think Cersei is "brave". As Ned says, one ought to be afraid in order to be brave, and Cersei is fearless. She would however never betray weakness against a threat. But you mistook my meaning of "Cersei not being phased". I didn't mean to say I expected her to act fearful or weak in her confrontation with Ned, no matter what she knew or didn't know already of Robert's accident.

Fine.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Thing is, Cersei confesses all to Ned freely without Ned requiring to say much whatsoever. She volunteers that Jaime is her lover since they were children. Ned only has to ask, "My son Bran ..." and she volunteers Bran saw them together. It is the blunt volunteering of Cersei that I call "unphased". You don't volunteer such information that readily out of brevity, but because you believe you've won the game.

She expects to win. Or die trying.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

On top of this, Cersei does not consider Ned an "honorable" man, and actually expects to be able to charm and bribe him.

She expects to corrupt him. Seduce him. Like Arys was seduced by Arianne.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Perhaps in your mind's eye you see Lena in her red dress talking to Ned Stark, but she's not wearing a queen's dress at all that day.

Not getting your point. I stopped watching after Series 1, and I can't remember the scene, or Cersei's character, or much else really. I just about know that Lena is the actress.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

How odd that Cersei was dressed this simple and in hunting greens with a hooded brown cloak if she spent her day in the castle? Sounds like she didn't, but went riding instead and may even pretended to be someone else than the queen (as she did in her days as handmaid to Aerys' wife), and that she just arrived back at the castle. 

Since we have a trial for regicide coming up in tWoW, and so far Lancel and Cersei haven't talked or recollected the actual murder plot of Robert, I expect George to shed some light why Cersei was dressed in simple riding clothes before meeting Ned and reveal a thing or two that goes against the impression that Varys tried to spin on Ned - that his honesty to Cersei killed Robert.

Mmm. Joff came home that morning - maybe Cersei went to meet him; I bet she wanted to. She'd know Joffrey's safe and hear how things are going. Still, hunting greens are a bit of an odd choice, and she had plenty of time to change back at the red keep.

Probably she just likes dressing down. And hunting greens fitted her mood.

[sweetsunray]

25 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Mmm. Joff came home that morning - maybe Cersei went to meet him; I bet she wanted to. She'd know Joffrey's safe and hear how things are going. Still, hunting greens are a bit of an odd choice, and she had plenty of time to change back at the red keep.

Probably she just likes dressing down. And hunting greens fitted her mood.

Doubtful that she likes to dress down, as Ned thinks "for once she was dressed simple". If Ned had been used to Cersei wear leather boots, hunter green and brown cloaks, he wouldn't think "for once". And yes, he had ample occasion to see this on the long trip from Winterfell to KL along the KR, where Robert took his leisure time hunting, as would Joffrey.

It can be argued that Cersei may have worn something befitting meeting Jofrey's returned hunting party in the color of hunter green, but then it is doubtful it would be a "simple" attire. On top of that, LF kills that explanation in the bud anyway:

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"Oh, [the Hound] returned with Joffrey, and went straight to the queen."

In other words, Cersei did not ride out to meet Joffrey. And if she didn't ride out that morning but was in the castle, then why the attire and why does Ned need to wait until sunset for her to meet him, when he sent Tomard with the message to meet with her in the afternoon?

Anyway, it's not outlandish to suppose that Cersei wanted Robert dead without Ned's incentive. After all, she attempted to goad Robert into the melee during the tourney with reverse psychology a while before that.

This seems a hint that Cersei went riding AFTER Joffrey returned and only returned and that she received Ned's message around sunset.

[Springwatch]

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

GRRM shows Ned's naiveté and lack of skill playing the likes of Cersei and LF but that doesn't mean Cersei had a sure win against Ned. Had Ned succeeded in getting Sansa and Arya out of KL, he wouldn't have confessed and Ned may still be alive.

No, I think Ned was sincere when he said he'd rather die than confess.

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Had Sansa and Arya been able to leave KL, events in the war may have turned out very different.

1. I don't think Sansa made any difference here either. The Wind Witch leaves in the evening. By the end of the morning, Joff was king, Ned in jail, and the Stark buildings searched with extreme prejudice.
2. I'm just going to focus on the fall of Ned, as per the SSM.

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There are several possibilities in which the author could have taken the story, just because you can't think of any possibility in which Sansa not telling Cersei Ned's plans would have aided the Starks or even Ned, doesn't mean GRRM couldn't have come up with one. 

I want you to come up with one. You are Fat Tom.  How would you have saved Ned? (if only Sansa hadn't talked and ruined everything.)

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I honestly don't know what you mean here. Not only does Cersei indicate that Sansa revealed Ned's plans to her, but Sansa admits as much to Cersei in a Sansa chapter in AGOT. So Cersei is not making things up here, it really happened. 

I was agreeing with you. A small surprise, that's all.

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How? Exactly in the manner GRRM states in his SSM.

But he doesn't! He just gives a list of things she might have said. And in fact she doesn't know details of her escort, because Ned changed them in the middle of the night and doesn't discuss them at breakfast. The SSM is wrong.

Quote

In the books Cersei thinks the information is vital and so does the author. Cersei may not have had a hostage as leverage against Ned and the Starks had Sansa not betrayed her father's plans. Cersei may have waited till Robert died to move against Ned. Cersei may not have reached out to LF for help (if we assume that's how things transpired). Again, GRRM is not stating in the SSM that Sansa's betrayal is the only factor that led to Ned's downfall but instead he states its one among many. 

Cersei's brain is worth a thread of it's own. She thinks the truth is whatever she'd like it to be, and she believes that everyone is cruel and treacherous like her. Or stupid.

Like you, I don't know what GRRM is thinking either.

Quote

As to quoting me from a previous post, nice try. Yes, I still think that Cersei invents things to suit her narrative or play the victim card -- Tyrion thinks as much in the books. But in this case,  Cersei is not making up anything to show her prowess or play the victim or to establish her rights. She is just stating a fact to Tyrion that had Sansa not come to her with Ned's plans, things may have not gone her way. No reason here for her to make up things. 

I think she's a fantasist. She wants to edit history. I bet she's got everyone in KL believing that Mycah attacked Joffrey. I bet she believes it herself.

Quote

<SNIP stuff I agree with or addressed elsewhere>

Lastly, as to the SSM, GMRR does not "contradict" anything in the books. He states that Sansa's reveal of Ned's plans was one among many reasons that Cersei was able to get the upper hand. GRRM knows exactly what he wrote and I've never seen an SSM where he lies or states something incorrect "to heat up an argument".

He has not shown it in the books. He has added a wealth of detail that supports the case that Sansa's talk with Cersei made no difference to the fall of Ned. In fact, there is no room for any scenario in which Sansa makes a difference. His guards could not save him, Syrio & Arya could not save him, and (actually, I wonder what might have happened if Sansa really had gone into the Lannister camp to find Joff? She sees something, hears something? Sansa saves Ned? )

Anyway, Cersei was on the hunt long before. Renly's advice to Ned, the night previous: 'Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late....'

 

 

ETA

Links to previous posts way back in the thread - for my own convenience apart from anything: 1 2 3 4

 

[Springwatch]

41 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Doubtful that she likes to dress down, as Ned thinks "for once she was dressed simple". If Ned had been used to Cersei wear leather boots, hunter green and brown cloaks, he wouldn't think "for once". And yes, he had ample occasion to see this on the long trip from Winterfell to KL along the KR, where Robert took his leisure time hunting, as would Joffrey.

For assignations, she does like to dress down. I think she wears a brown and green disguise to meet Jaime one time.

41 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

It can be argued that Cersei may have worn something befitting meeting Jofrey's returned hunting party in the color of hunter green, but then it is doubtful it would be a "simple" attire. On top of that, LF kills that explanation in the bud anyway:

In other words, Cersei did not ride out to meet Joffrey. And if she didn't ride out that morning but was in the castle, then why the attire and why does Ned need to wait until sunset for her to meet him, when he sent Tomard with the message to meet with her in the afternoon?

Anyway, it's not outlandish to suppose that Cersei wanted Robert dead without Ned's incentive. After all, she attempted to goad Robert into the melee during the tourney with reverse psychology a while before that.

This seems a hint that Cersei went riding AFTER Joffrey returned and only returned and that she received Ned's message around sunset.

Could be. We are short of clues though, so I'm tempted to fall back on symbolism. Colours. Horses. Littlefinger was riding in the night before the coup, I think. No explanation.

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

For assignations, she does like to dress down. I think she wears a brown and green disguise to meet Jaime one time.

Both Joffrey and the Hound gave her enough information on the whereabouts of Robert's party or where they were heading to flush out this boar. With this info she rode out not long after seeing Joffrey in order to meet with Lancel (in a similar way as she does with Jaime - dressed down) and seduced him that afternoon, likely handed him the strongwine to get Robert as drunk as possible. She returns and received Ned's invitation to meet in the godswood.

3 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Could be. We are short of clues though, so I'm tempted to fall back on symbolism. Colours. Horses.

Oh, but the attire is plentiful symbolic: Cersei's "hunting". And her prey is Robert. Since she already wears it before Ned even opens his mouth, she's already hunting Robert. A woman in hunting greens is a reference to the goddess of the hunt Diane/Artemis. Robert's manner of mortal wounding (gored by a boar during a hunt) is a typical mythological tableaux of a hero (like Adonis - hmmm, didn't Robert look like one when he was young? - or Dyonisus) ending up killed in a gruesome manner for hunting in a location or an animal that is sacred to the goddess of the hunt. Diane/Artemis sent a boar in revenge to kill Adonis (I reference it here in this chthonic essay: https://sweeticeandfiresunray.com/2015/10/30/the-cursed-souls-of-eddard-and-robert/.) Her later eating of the boar in relishment of Robert's death adds to that symbolism.

 

[Dofs]

On 1/6/2020 at 4:44 AM, teej6 said:

In the books Cersei thinks the information is vital and so does the author.

My take on this is that Cersei assumed that Ned could have spread the information about incest amongst his people, hence she absolutely had to get rid of every last of them, even including the harmless Septa Mordaine. Sansa's information helped her to prepare her forces so that as soon as Ned was captured, she would grab and kill all of his people before they could have escaped.

[Springwatch]

53 minutes ago, Dofs said:

My take on this is that Cersei assumed that Ned could have spread the information about incest amongst his people, hence she absolutely had to get rid of every last of them, even including the harmless Septa Mordaine. Sansa's information helped her to prepare her forces so that as soon as Ned was captured, she would grab and kill all of his people before they could have escaped.

I like this first idea - Cersei going to extreme measures to protect her children. It's just like her.

But in no way did Sansa's information help her in this. The ship, the dancing lesson, and the arrangement of Ned's pathetically weak forces are utterly insignificant. And that's assuming Sansa told her all these things. (We've been arguing this for the past three pages, and more, if you want to look back....)

23 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Her later eating of the boar in relishment of Robert's death adds to that symbolism.

Come to think of it, Robert wanted Ned to eat that boar - he never did....

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Come to think of it, Robert wanted Ned to eat that boar - he never did....

Indeed, Ned didn't, though he promised to.

Many people presume that the broken promises regret that Ned feels inside the black cell is related to Lyanna, because we were conditioned to tie promises to the "promise me, Ned," thought. Except in that instance this "promise me, Ned," recollection is absent and his mind is not even on the past in the whole of that section, nor right before, nor right after. Instead it's all on the present, on Cat, on Robb, and on dead Robert. Ned promised several things on Robert's deathbed, none which he was able to keep: not eating the boar, too late to prevent the assassination attempt on Dany, not being able to protect Robert's bastard son or care for him as if he was his own... And then Varys shows up and Ned wants Varys to deliver a letter? And then Yori gets a letter. While yes, obviously Varys did help with that, I suspect the actual idea for Gendry being taken along by Yori was Ned's. It was the sole thing he could do to keep his promise to Robert, and the most meaningful one, imho.