The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter 2.0

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

can you please explain to me why Stannis is going to think that Jon will ride to Winterfell in response to this letter.

I'm not exactly sure of Stannis's whole thought process but Jon does try to ride to WF in response to the letter so I wouldn't think it is far fetched to believe Stannis believed the PL would cause Jon ride to WF in response to the letter. 

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Jon has no army, as far as Stannis knows, so what does he think Jon would be trying to accomplish?

I think there are a couple options here. Maybe Stannis does know about the army. I have no evidence of that just suggesting. Or since Stannis doesn't really need an entire army, he only needs Jon, maybe Stannis banking on Jon coming alone. Or maybe he thinks Jon will come with the NW men, or with the other wildlings, or the King & Queens men, or all of the above. 

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Which would involve bolstering defenses to the extent he can, evacuating non-essential personnel, and maybe setting up ambushes in the Gift.  All of which require his presence in or near Castle Black, not Winterfell.  I can't see any reason why, if written by Stannis, this particular letter is going to accomplish its purported goal of getting Jon to Winterfell.

But we know this isn't Jon's response to the letter. His response is to ride to WF & fight, Stannis apparently knows Jon well enough to assume or hope this will be the outcome. 

I know some people contend that with out the army Jon wouldn't have rode to WF but I don't think that is the case at all. I think he would have found some other way & barring anything else would have went alone, as foolish as that may seem. I can't imagine a scenario where Jon allows that letter to go unanswered. 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Because he has no choice.  It is likely he knows they made it to Stannis's camp.   If he can't find Jeyne there, the only logical place to send her is the Wall. 

Again this assumes Ramsay will win the battle at the village, which I can't see happening.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

He knows, or believes, that Jon and Stannis are working closely, and Stannis doesn't control anything else except Deepwood Motte, which is even more indefensible and unsafe than the Wall is.  If she is on her way to the Wall, the cat is essentially out of the bag. 

It was Theon who escaped with Jeyne, and he knows it is not Arya so the cat is out of the bag already as far as the Boltons know. How could they predict that he would keep up the charade? And as Theon is the one who took her then surely they must consider the possibility that he might strike for the west coast. They can't really be certain she's gone to the Wall.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

The only thing he can do is try to shove it back in as best he can, which means demanding her back, and intimidating Jon into remaining silent, and branding him a liar if he doesn't.  He might try to get her back, and if he does, then the letter is moot, at least as it pertains to "his bride".

If she is at the Wall they will find it difficult to brand Jon a liar when Jeyne is there to confirm it. A better option would be hunt her all the way to the Wall and if she gets there first just keep going and deal with Jon without first warning him.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

That wasn't really my question.  My question is , why is it in there in the first place?  Unless he wants them to go to Essos, which I doubt. 

The list of demanded hostages you mean? Stannis put them in there because they are women and children and Jon is not going to hand them over to a monster like Ramsay who skins women. It is plausible that Ramsay would demand the rest of Stannis entourage if he had defeated him. Selyse and Shireen at least. The wildling princess and little prince, probably not as they only really have value to Stannis.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

By the way, I think Stannis has a far greater chance of gaining the North's homage than you do, apparently.

What matters here is what Stannis thinks and he knows the North has no love for him. That's why he wanted Jon in the first place, making him an offer in their very first meeting. Since then, Stannis has received an insulting letter from Wyman, a defiant letter from Lyanna Mormont who is clearly pro-Stark, and silence from the rest of the northern lords. His march with the northern clans will have underlined what he already knew; northmen don't like southrons but they revere the Stark name. Then to top it off, he received news that Wyman executed Davos. I can understand why Stannis feels unloved in the North.

"Robb Stark was my liege lord," said Lord Wyman. "Who is this man Stannis? Why does he trouble us? He never felt the need to journey north before, as best I can recall. Yet he turns up now, a beaten cur with his helm in his hand, begging for alms."

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I don't know why they couldn't be angry with him.  They hold the NW is high regard, and I don't think they will appreciate its LC chucking his oath to join Stannis.  Why should they follow an oathbreaker?

He didn't chuck in his oath to join Stannis, he thought Stannis was dead. He forswore his vows to go deal with Ramsay. He put his family, Winterfell, and the North ahead of the Watch. I think that's a good quality for a potential Lord of Winterfell.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Stannis isn't in Kings Landing; he is in Winterfell, helping the Northerners get rid of their enemies.  They may not love him, but they will damn sure appreciate what he has done for them.  As for the Manderlys, he can give them an offer they can't refuse.  "Prove to me that you're on my side, or I'll execute you for murdering my envoy."

They may well appreciate what he has done for them, but that doesn't mean they will swear fealty. They declared independence from the Iron Throne not long ago. Why should they send their strength south with him to fight his war to win a kingdom they want no part of?

Stannis cannot unite the north and he appreciated that before he even landed at Eastwatch. Only a Stark can do that, and Jon is the pick of the litter as far as Stannis is concerned.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

can you please explain to me why Stannis is going to think that Jon will ride to Winterfell in response to this letter. 

I think it is a very clever letter that narrows Jon's options as it goes and really funnels him towards taking action against Ramsay.

For example, Stannis knows Jon wanted him to succeed in removing the Boltons from Winterfell, Jon's actions proved it. So the first line of the letter informs Jon that Stannis is dead, and what that tells Jon is that if he wants Ramsay removed then he is going to have to do it himself.

When it informs him that Arya has been stolen and Ramsay wants his bride back, it is telling Jon that she is no longer a hostage.

When it makes demands for women and children to be delivered to Ramsay, it tells Jon he cannot comply with the letter.

When it informs Jon that Ramsay will come for Jon if he does not comply, it tells Jon he needs to act before Ramsay does.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Jon has no army, as far as Stannis knows, so what does he think Jon would be trying to accomplish? 

Jon has 300 wildlings as far as Stannis knows. Granted that Stannis does not know about Tormund's arrival, which swelled the numbers to 3000. Stannis is reported to have 5000 but Mance claims that ten times as many could not breach the walls. Jon knows how strong a castle Winterfell is. He knows 3000 wildlings with very little experience of laying siege or storming castles is not enough, but still he was willing to go. And if he only had 300, I still think he would have gone. Jon says he would have gone alone if needs be and I believe him.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I can't see any reason why, if written by Stannis, this particular letter is going to accomplish its purported goal of getting Jon to Winterfell.

Stannis has weighed Jon over his months at the Wall. He knows Jon infiltrated Mance's host by himself. He is smart, resourceful, and very competent. No doubt Stannis will be hoping he has a bit of the Wild Wolf in him too. And if it doesn't work, then Stannis will just have to go for whatever his plan b is. He has very little to lose by sending the letter but the gain could be huge. It's worth a shot.

 

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Again this assumes Ramsay will win the battle at the village, which I can't see happening.

I don’t understand why you think it assumes Ramsay wins at the CV? 

[three-eyed monkey]

20 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t understand why you think it assumes Ramsay wins at the CV? 

Because he's not going to have the freedom to search Stannis camp for Jeyne, or question prisoners as to her whereabouts, unless he wins the battle. It's the same for theories that suggest he got the term "wildling princess" from Stannis' men whom he took as prisoners after the battle. All such scenarios are based on Ramsay winning the battle.

Edit: Most Ramsay theories are based on him either winning the battle or not going to the battle. Some are based on him winning the battle and not being at the battle at the same time. I don't think there is a single coherent Ramsay theory that covers all the bases or anywhere close. It's mostly just a series of objections to other authors.

[Nevets]

13 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Again this assumes Ramsay will win the battle at the village, which I can't see happening.

It doesn't require that he wins, only that he thinks he won.  Given that Stannis has essentially stated that he is planning to fake his death, that is hardly a stretch.

16 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It was Theon who escaped with Jeyne, and he knows it is not Arya so the cat is out of the bag already as far as the Boltons know. How could they predict that he would keep up the charade? And as Theon is the one who took her then surely they must consider the possibility that he might strike for the west coast. They can't really be certain she's gone to the Wall.

If they're worried about Theon saying she's fake, then it's game over already.  Once Theon and Jeyne leave Winterfell, they are going to need shelter and protection from Ramsay, and quickly.  The only place they will get that is Stannis's camp.  No way are they going to strike out for Torrhen's Square, which is the closest Ironborn-held territory.  They would die long before they got there.  Theon would know this, and Ramsay would know that Theon would know.  And the Wall is the logical place for Stannis to send her.  His chief ally, who is apparently her brother, is there.  What Jeyne wants won't be relevant once she is in Stannis's camp.

 

23 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Why should they send their strength south with him to fight his war to win a kingdom they want no part of?

If you think Jon is going to lead them South, you haven't been paying attention.  Jon has no more interest in the South than the Northern Lords do.  And Stannis's strategy, as I understand it, is to consolidate the North, fight and defeat the Others with these consolidated forces, and thereby prove that he is worthy of being King.  He;'s focused on the Others, and if he can't convince the North to join him in that battle, he probably doesn't deserve to win.

[three-eyed monkey]

19 minutes ago, Nevets said:

It doesn't require that he wins, only that he thinks he won. 

How does that happen if he's present at the battle?

23 minutes ago, Nevets said:

If they're worried about Theon saying she's fake, then it's game over already.

Of course they are worried about that. They should be at least.

25 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Once Theon and Jeyne leave Winterfell, they are going to need shelter and protection from Ramsay, and quickly.  The only place they will get that is Stannis's camp. 

Yes, Stannis camp is the obvious place they will go to seek refuge. We agree on that. The question was, if Ramsay finds she is not there, where is next? Castle Black is over 600 miles away. It's a possibility but not a certainty. but if they did decide or learn that's where she is headed they would not rush back to Winterfell and send a letter to Jon, they would hunt her all the way. The Boltons have agents all over the north. They were up and down the kingsroad looking for Bran and Rickon. It would be no different with Jeyne.

35 minutes ago, Nevets said:

If you think Jon is going to lead them South, you haven't been paying attention.  Jon has no more interest in the South than the Northern Lords do. 

I never said Jon's going to lead them south. Stannis needs Jon to hold Winterfell and the North while he goes south. However, if Stannis did get his way, and Jon swore his sword to the king and brought the north to his cause, then yes, by the laws of fealty, northmen would be added to Stannis' army.

As readers we know the north have their own aspirations but Stannis cannot know the extent of their plans. From his point of view, Jon would bring him the north, and it is in that context he wrote the letter.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

And Stannis's strategy, as I understand it, is to consolidate the North, fight and defeat the Others with these consolidated forces, and thereby prove that he is worthy of being King.  He;'s focused on the Others, and if he can't convince the North to join him in that battle, he probably doesn't deserve to win.

Perhaps it is you who is not paying attention. Stannis and the pink letter are similar in that you have to delve a little deeper than the surface to see the truth.

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎12‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 6:23 AM, The Map Guy said:

Is this something Stannis would do? It's really below him.

Roose/Vargo did something similar at Harrenhal with Amory ... but Roose/Vargo are considered dishonorable rats.

Stannis' character arc doesn't involve him being a rat. In this theory, he would take Winterfell in a dishonorable way, and would lure Jon away from his NW vows in a dishonorable way.

And besides, Stannis would have to hope that Jon would not get executed for his oathbreaking trying to leaving Castle Black.

Like divica said, Stannis can just ask Jon again nicely if he wants it. (We know Jon dun want it)

If Stannis took Winterfell and he establishes "Arya Stark" as the future heir, he wouldn't need Jon Snow the bastard. I think that is a resolution that most Northerners would accept until a better resolution arrives ... like a Rickon Stark and Davos.

I would side with divica and The Map Guy: I just cannot imagine Stannis to write such a letter from the perspective of his sense for honour.

Sure, among the characters in the story who have:

1)  the means, that is:

- the information (at least most of what is mentioned in the PL)

- the wax/paper/quill/skill to write a letter

- a raven to carry it to CB (if the letter was sent by raven to CB and not written at CB itself)

2) A motive

- for Stannis: getting Military support

Stannis is a possible candidate (like possibly Mance, Melisandre, Ramsay Bolton, members of the NW and some others maybe).

But he is the one in this list I would exclude due to his character.

In Theon 1 he just said he would pay his debt as a King by sending fArya back to Jon (probably as a reward for helping him discover the Karstark treason plan). I just cannot believe that his next move would be to tell Jon a lie. If he needed Jon, then, - as divica said - he would openly ask Jon to come down to WF.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I would side with divica and The Map Guy: I just cannot imagine Stannis to write such a letter from the perspective of his sense for honour.

Stannis looked disgusted. "Your father was a stubborn man as well. Honor, he called it. Well, honor has its costs, as Lord Eddard learned to his sorrow."

Stannis' own words refute your point. The image Stannis portrays to the world is honorable and lawful but we have seen him act in ways that give lie to that image, which is really quite typical of a king.

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

2) A motive

- for Stannis: getting Military support

Jon, by himself has no military power of significance. Stannis want's Jon to be his loyal Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. This is made clear several times in the text. It's a political move, although like any political move there are military implications of course.

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Stannis is a possible candidate (like possibly Mance, Melisandre, Ramsay Bolton, members of the NW and some others maybe).

But he is the one in this list I would exclude due to his character.

We have seen what Stannis himself says of honor, yet you still exclude him on that basis. I'm interested in your opinion about which one of your list is most likely to have quoted Theon in the letter?

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

In Theon 1 he just said he would pay his debt as a King by sending fArya back to Jon (probably as a reward for helping him discover the Karstark treason plan). I just cannot believe that his next move would be to tell Jon a lie. If he needed Jon, then, - as divica said - he would openly ask Jon to come down to WF.

People keep saying this, if Stannis needed Jon he would just ask him openly. How many times did he do that in ADwD? How many times did Jon refuse? Are we seriously meant to ignore what's written in the books? It's time to let Proudwing go guys and try a different hawk.

You make a good point about Stannis sending Arya back to Jon. It is so typical of Stannis. He knighted Davos and shortened his fingers at the same time, remember? Stannis promised Jon he would try to save his sister. She is saved and on her way to Castle Black. The debt is paid. Stannis needs to get on with the war and he needs Jon if he want's to progress beyond Winterfell.

[Greywater-Watch]

21 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis looked disgusted. "Your father was a stubborn man as well. Honor, he called it. Well, honor has its costs, as Lord Eddard learned to his sorrow."

Stannis' own words refute your point. The image Stannis portrays to the world is honorable and lawful but we have seen him act in ways that give lie to that image, which is really quite typical of a king.

Jon, by himself has no military power of significance. Stannis want's Jon to be his loyal Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. This is made clear several times in the text. It's a political move, although like any political move there are military implications of course.

We have seen what Stannis himself says of honor, yet you still exclude him on that basis. I'm interested in your opinion about which one of your list is most likely to have quoted Theon in the letter?

People keep saying this, if Stannis needed Jon he would just ask him openly. How many times did he do that in ADwD? How many times did Jon refuse? Are we seriously meant to ignore what's written in the books? It's time to let Proudwing go guys and try a different hawk.

You make a good point about Stannis sending Arya back to Jon. It is so typical of Stannis. He knighted Davos and shortened his fingers at the same time, remember? Stannis promised Jon he would try to save his sister. She is saved and on her way to Castle Black. The debt is paid. Stannis needs to get on with the war and he needs Jon if he want's to progress beyond Winterfell.

Well, the most obvious candidate is Ramsay. There are some little points to arise doubts (like Jon not mentioning Ramsay's typical handwriting style), but the doubts I have with all other mentioned characters are much bigger.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Well, the most obvious candidate is Ramsay. There are some little points to arise doubts (like Jon not mentioning Ramsay's typical handwriting style), but the doubts I have with all other mentioned characters are much bigger

I think the thing that makes me doubt it was Ramsay is that if he did indeed defeat Stannis he should know where Theon is. Last we saw him he was in chains. So, there are a couple possibilities: Stannis killed Theon before the battle engaged in which case Ramsay may or may not have found the body but could have interrogated prisoners who could tell him Theon is dead so no reason to ask Jon for Theon, Theon some how escaped in which case, again, he may be able to get that information from interrogating prisoners but, again, would have no reason to think Theon went to the wall. Or Stannis released him, which I think is highly unlikely but the same issues remain, Ramsay could find out & has no reason to believe he would go to the wall. 

The same issue with Jeyne to an extent. Ramsay has no reason to believe she would go to the wall either but could find out from interrogating prisoners - but this would be contingent upon the prisoners knowing where she was sent (something we don't know if they do know) & telling. Granted torture would make most people talk but he can hardly torture every person & if he did it would take some time before he found one privvy to this info, if any of them are. 

[Greywater-Watch]

CB as a refuge is not so unlikely, where else to go? Many people in the crofter's village may know of the departure of Justin Massey to CB with fArya. Stannis didn't tell Massey to make a secret of his departure.

And assuming that Theon headed to CB too, why not? Doesn't seem such a stretch to me.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

7 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

CB as a refuge is not so unlikely, where else to go? Many people in the crofter's village may know of the departure of Justin Massey to CB with fArya. Stannis didn't tell Massey to make a secret of his departure.

And assuming that Theon headed to CB too, why not? Doesn't seem such a stretch to me.

A couple reason to me. While he will need refuge & certainly will need to stop at places along the way throughout his journey due to the weather, it seems unlikely he would head north, where the weather is going to get worse as he goes, and has only one destination. The wall can't be Theon's final destination unless he plans on taking the black. Also, Ramsay knows everyone thinks Theon killed Bran & Rickon making Theon's probability of running to their brother unlikely IMO. It seems much more likely to me that Theon would go in a direction where the weather is going to be getting better, and the journey easier. Possibly to somewhere to contact his own family & return to the Iron born as a final destination. 

[Greywater-Watch]

Where do you think that would be? He is North of Winterfell, going South would bring him close to Ramsay, further South to the Neck - the Crannogmen would feed him to the Lizards, I assume. East to Deepwood Motte (where an Ironborn wouldn't be welcome I think) or Torrhen's Square; and West is the Dreadfort.

Ok, you could argue that Theon knows the North well and could head to White Harbour, but if he would be welcome there is another question.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Well, the most obvious candidate is Ramsay. There are some little points to arise doubts (like Jon not mentioning Ramsay's typical handwriting style), but the doubts I have with all other mentioned characters are much bigger.

The vagueness, or things that are harder to explain (w/ the info we have so far) are deliberate on Martin’s part, of course. That’s why we’re still here, 8+ years later, still debating the authorship of the PL. 

And I agree w/ you, except for the handwriting. To me, that’s one of the strongest things pointing to Ramsay having written the letter. If I get a letter from a person who has sent me letters before and the handwriting is exactly what I’d expect it to be I won’t think, “blimey, person x still writes in same hand they did in the past”. I would, however, take note if something looked different, or not quite what I expected to see. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The vagueness, or things that are harder to explain (w/ the info we have so far) are deliberate on Martin’s part, of course. That’s why we’re still here, 8+ years later, still debating the authorship of the PL. 

And I agree w/ you, except for the handwriting. To me, that’s one of the strongest things pointing to Ramsay having written the letter. If I get a letter from a person who has sent me letters before and the handwriting is exactly what I’d expect it to be I won’t think, “blimey, person x still writes in same hand they did in the past”. I would, however, take note if something looked different, or not quite what I expected to see. 

I agree. The handwriting thing points to Ramsay IMO because like you said if it looked no different there is no reason to comment on it. 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Well, the most obvious candidate is Ramsay.

No, the obvious candidate when it comes to quoting Theon is Stannis. Theon said those lines to Stannis. Ramsay was not there. It is impossible for him to be the one quoting Theon. None of the other candidates you mentioned were there.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

41 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Where do you think that would be? He is North of Winterfell, going South would bring him close to Ramsay, further South to the Neck - the Crannogmen would feed him to the Lizards, I assume. East to Deepwood Motte (where an Ironborn wouldn't be welcome I think) or Torrhen's Square; and West is the Dreadfort.

Ok, you could argue that Theon knows the North well and could head to White Harbour, but if he would be welcome there is another question.

I think it would depend on if he is traveling alone or in a small group or with a large group but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to travel south west towards the Iron Islands & take a boat. 

The Dreadfort is East

[three-eyed monkey]

34 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The vagueness, or things that are harder to explain (w/ the info we have so far) are deliberate on Martin’s part, of course. That’s why we’re still here, 8+ years later, still debating the authorship of the PL. 

Yes because it is a mystery. If it was not meant to be then GRRM would have confirmed it with the handwriting style he had already set up for Ramsay. Only amateur writers inadvertently set up mysteries where there is none.

[kissdbyfire]

 

36 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I agree. The handwriting thing points to Ramsay IMO because like you said if it looked no different there is no reason to comment on it. 

 

Yes, it does. And then the question [for those who don’t believe Ramsay wrote it] is, did Stannis (or Mance or Mel or [insert favourite suspect]) fake Ramsay’s hand? 

17 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes because it is a mystery. If it was not meant to be then GRRM would have confirmed it with the handwriting style he had already set up for Ramsay. Only amateur writers inadvertently set up mysteries where there is none.

I honestly don’t think the authorship is supposed to be a great mystery. Sure, Martin will do what he does, which is, to always leave room for speculation; as in, he won’t spell everything out as he goes. But IMO the real mysteries are the claims we see in the letter. 

[three-eyed monkey]

46 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I honestly don’t think the authorship is supposed to be a great mystery. Sure, Martin will do what he does, which is, to always leave room for speculation; as in, he won’t spell everything out as he goes. But IMO the real mysteries are the claims we see in the letter. 

Fair enough, but look at the first claim. Stannis has been defeated. Is that ture?

I ask because a lot of the theories that support Ramsay suggest that he searched Stannis camp, couldn't find Jeyne - or Reek for that matter, questioned some of the prisoners, and learned they went to Castle Black. On the surface it seems plausible. Stannis was written into a hopeless position after all. But we know that these books are a lot deeper than what we see on the surface. The seeds of Stannis' victory, such as the frozen lakes, have been planted in the text. I'm certain the pink letter was not a spoiler to Stannis' death, which would presumably come in Asha I, if it was going to happen. Stannis will not lose and the whole notion of a victorious Ramsay questioning prisoners at the crofters' village about Jeyne's whereabouts or the wildling princess really needs to be thrown out.

A variation on that is that Stannis uses a raven to mislead Roose into thinking the Bolton's have won. I agree this will happen because again the seeds have been planted in the text. But what I do not agree with is the notion that Ramsay will still be in Winterfell when that raven arrives. I believe Theon is right and Ramsay will come for him, Ramsay is not going to let Reek outsmart him and get away with it. He loves the hunt too much for that. So he will be at the battle and even if he escapes alive and gets back to Winterfell he will know the battle is lost.

Perhaps he could have written it then, after losing and escaping back to Winterfell, and he was simply lying about winning the battle. But if that was the case he would not have questioned prisoners about the wildling princess, as Stannis calls her, nor would he have any reason to think Jeyne is going to Castle Black. He'd just think she was still with Stannis.

It really only makes sense that Ramsay wrote the letter if he won the battle. Then I could get on-board with Ramsay questioning prisoners and finding out about the wildling princess, although she would still have little value to him, and Jeyne going to Castle Black, even if asking Jon for her back when Jon would know it is not Arya and have Jeyne to confirm it, seems a bit too dumb even for Ramsay. Even if Ramsay won there would still be problems, but it's a moot point really because I seriously don't think he will win.