The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter 2.0

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 1/6/2020 at 2:41 AM, bemused said:

Wex's story may foreshadow Squirrel's chances of survival...

I'll do you one better with Bran. This after he goes climbing after he promised his mother he would not do it again;

He confessed his crime the next day in a fit of guilt. Lord Eddard ordered him to the godswood to cleanse himself. Guards were posted to see that Bran remained there alone all night to reflect on his disobedience. The next morning Bran was nowhere to be seen. They finally found him fast asleep in the upper branches of the tallest sentinel in the grove.
As angry as he was, his father could not help but laugh. "You're not my son," he told Bran when they fetched him down, "you're a squirrel. So be it. If you must climb, then climb, but try not to let your mother see you." (Bran II, AGoT 8)

There's something I noticed in the way Ramsay signed the letters.

The letters he sent to Asha and Jon, the ones that they both comment on the wax and the handwriting, Asha's letter is signed Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell. Undersigned by Umber, Dustin, Cerwyn, and four Ryswell signatures.

Jon's letter is signed Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood. Undersigned by Umber, Dustin, Cerwyn, and four Ryswell signatures.

The PL is signed, Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell. Undersigned by no one.

To Asha, he signs Lord of Winterfell, but to Jon who grew up in Winterfell, who is a Stark by blood, whose alleged sister is about to be married to Ramsay, thereby giving Ramsay claim over Winterfell, he signs Lord of the Hornwood. He's almost being polite about the whole thing. But then, in the PL, the signature becomes a blatant provocation. He calls Jon bastard repeatedly, while he, Ramsay who was born a bastard, is signing a letter as trueborn, while he tells Jon that he doesn't even have "Arya" anymore, that she has indeed escaped. 

I find the letter in retrospect to be a bit of a mess. I don't have your so-called sister anymore because she essentially fled, I want my Reek back, even though Jon doesn't have a clue what or who Reek is. And even though there was a 7 day battle, and Stannis has been allegedly killed, Ramsay doesn't find Theon in Stannis's camp, and we know it was Stannis who had him, while Jeyne, he sent off to the Wall to Jon.

But for some reason, he focuses his letter on Val and Mance's son. I think Mance would rather die than tell Ramsay anything about his son or Val.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

To Asha, he signs Lord of Winterfell, but to Jon who grew up in Winterfell, who is a Stark by blood, whose alleged sister is about to be married to Ramsay, thereby giving Ramsay claim over Winterfell, he signs Lord of the Hornwood. He's almost being polite about the whole thing. But then, in the PL, the signature becomes a blatant provocation. He calls Jon bastard repeatedly, while he, Ramsay who was born a bastard, is signing a letter as trueborn, while he tells Jon that he doesn't even have "Arya" anymore, that she has indeed escaped. 

Yes, it's a good point and it was discussed on previous threads. The Bolton's do not want to provoke Jon because he is in a position to discover their lie about Arya. The same thing happens when Theon asked Roose why not have Jon give Arya away for her wedding but Roose casualy dismissed the notion as Jon was bastard born and sworn to the Night's Watch. The subtext here is that the Boltons want to keep Jon at a distance. That's why writing to him to ask for Arya back is not very likely, especially when they know she's not Arya, and they know that Jon would know that too.

[Putin]

Great thread and great theory I enjoyed reading it. All those quotes reminded me why Stannis is together with Sandor my favorite character of ASOIAF universe.

I cant wait to see how will things play out especially battle for Winterfel and  who send letter I would not exlude Mance too .

[Putin]

On 1/3/2020 at 11:28 PM, Finley McLeod said:

  And if he did, that would prove him an extremely selfish man. 

That does not make him selfish man. He is stubborn  , serious , intelligent , just,  stern.  Just like iron he will break before he bends.

Its was said earlier that he never wanted throne. He has strong sense of justice and duty so everything he does he does for kingdom , for his family , for justice. He knows he is rightful heir to Robert and he knows he is the only one who can save the kingdom and bring justice to the realm.

Stannis is the real man and king Westeros needs and deserves.

Despite being complex character his ways are simple , there are laws and duty , breaking those laws results it punishment. So simple rules yet so hard at the same time.

[McBaine]

  

On 12/11/2019 at 1:50 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Wich ally has stannis lied to  and manipulated in order to achieve his goals? 

On 12/11/2019 at 1:50 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon, when he burned Rattleshirt instead of Mance.

I don't think there is a convincing bit of text that would prove a lie from Stannis. Most of what I saw just claimed Stannis was in the know about the Mance/Rattleshirt swap without proof or questioning the text.

Sure, Mel said in her POV to Jon that his advice swayed Stannis... but, is this true, or is she lying to appear more legitimate? She thinks to herself "Was I wrong to spare this one?" (referring to Mance). If it was a decision from Stannis, inspired by Jon's advice, Mel would not question herself if this was the right decision on her part.

Also this occurs without Stannis present. Why would Mel wait until Stannis was gone, instead of Stannis telling Jon about it? Stannis admitted freely when Davos gave him good advice and swayed him, why not here with Jon? Why is Mel meeting with them after Stannis has left? This all points to Mel doing this on her own behind Stannis' back.

Also, Stannis leaving Mance alive makes no sense at all after claiming to have him burned. The burning of Mance would satisfy the law that Stannis upholds (rules of iron, not pudding). If Stannis would make the swap to appear righteous, and plan to use Mance later to keep the wildlings in check when they settle in the gift... then Stannis is proving himself that he lied with the execution and that is iron rules mean nothing. So that can't seriously be his plan. 

I think, Stannis doesn't know that Mance is alive and that Melisandre did it behind his back, because she saw something in her flames. She spared him, so Mance could go to Winterfell and rescue "Arya". Then, she would probably dispose of him, because after his "execution", Mance being alive would be a major political blow to Stannis' trustworthyness.

 

[kissdbyfire]

39 minutes ago, McBaine said:

 I don't think there is a convincing bit of text that would prove a lie from Stannis. Most of what I saw just claimed Stannis was in the know about the Mance/Rattleshirt swap without proof or questioning the text.

Sure, Mel said in her POV to Jon that his advice swayed Stannis... but, is this true, or is she lying to appear more legitimate? She thinks to herself "Was I wrong to spare this one?" (referring to Mance). If it was a decision from Stannis, inspired by Jon's advice, Mel would not question herself if this was the right decision on her part.

Mel could be questioning herself about sparing Mance simply because she did play a part, regardless of whether Stannis is in on it or not. 

Quote

Also this occurs without Stannis present. Why would Mel wait until Stannis was gone, instead of Stannis telling Jon about it? Stannis admitted freely when Davos gave him good advice and swayed him, why not here with Jon? Why is Mel meeting with them after Stannis has left? This all points to Mel doing this on her own behind Stannis' back.

Not necessarily. Stannis knows many men of the NW won’t accept Mance being spared. But he also knows Mance could be a valuable asset. 

ADwD, Jon I

I know that," Stannis said, unhappily. "I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I'll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms."

Stannis also listens to Jon’s advice about the mountain clans.

ADwD, Jon V

“And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy’s longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered. The captains, knights, notable warriors, and others of high birth we shall ransom or make other use of, the rest I mean to hang …
The Night’s Watch was sworn to take no side in the quarrels and conflicts of the realm. Nonetheless, Jon Snow could not help but feel a certain satisfaction. He read on.
 … more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day. And word has come to us that Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half sister. He must not be allowed to restore the castle to its former strength. We march against him. Arnolf Karstark and Mors Umber will join us. I will save your sister if I can, and find a better match for her than Ramsay Snow. You and your brothers must hold the Wall until I can return.”

Quote

Also, Stannis leaving Mance alive makes no sense at all after claiming to have him burned. The burning of Mance would satisfy the law that Stannis upholds (rules of iron, not pudding). If Stannis would make the swap to appear righteous, and plan to use Mance later to keep the wildlings in check when they settle in the gift... then Stannis is proving himself that he lied with the execution and that is iron rules mean nothing. So that can't seriously be his plan. 

I think, Stannis doesn't know that Mance is alive and that Melisandre did it behind his back, because she saw something in her flames. She spared him, so Mance could go to Winterfell and rescue "Arya". Then, she would probably dispose of him, because after his "execution", Mance being alive would be a major political blow to Stannis' trustworthyness.

Again, not necessarily. History is written by the winning side. And if he loses, who cares? Stannis is much more pragmatic than people think IMO. 

The other little clue that might point to Stannis being in on the Mancelshirt switcheroo is this:

ADwD, Jon VI

“Rattleshirt was leaning against a wall. A coarse stubble covered his sunken cheeks, and thin brown hair was blowing across his little yellow eyes.
“You flatter yourself,” Jon said.
“Aye, but I’d flatten you.”
“Stannis burned the wrong man.”
“No.” The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. “He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings.”

And just to be clear, I firmly believe Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter.

[McBaine]

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Mel could be questioning herself about sparing Mance simply because she did play a part, regardless of whether Stannis is in on it or not. 

If that were true, what else would she have done? Disobey her king's and savior's expressed command? No, she would probably question if Stannis did the right thing then.

 

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not necessarily. Stannis knows many men of the NW won’t accept Mance being spared. But he also knows Mance could be a valuable asset. 

Yes, but this proofs neither that is wasn't done behind Stannis' back, nor does this explain why Stannis wasn't present and Mel waited until after he was gone.

 

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Again, not necessarily. History is written by the winning side. And if he loses, who cares? Stannis is much more pragmatic than people think IMO. 

Well, you have to pick one. If it is unacceptable to leave Mance Rayder alive, then you can't possibly plan to use an alive Mance later to unite the wildlings under him for peace. It would undermine Stannis' rule. History is written by the winning side, yes, but this is all in living memory. Just imagine Stannis wins and goes on with this plan: only months after it was a big display that the king-beyond-the-wall was killed for being a NW deserter, there he is again, settling in the gift, keeping the wildlings in check. That will just not fly.

Stannis is pragmatic, sure, but this is an obviously backwards plan. Deceiving everyone and then proving himself a lyer for all the world to see... that can't be the plan of Stannis. Pragmatic or not.

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The other little clue that might point to Stannis being in on the Mancelshirt switcheroo is this:

ADwD, Jon VI

“Rattleshirt was leaning against a wall. A coarse stubble covered his sunken cheeks, and thin brown hair was blowing across his little yellow eyes.
“You flatter yourself,” Jon said.
“Aye, but I’d flatten you.”
“Stannis burned the wrong man.”
“No.” The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. “He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings.”

Well, this proofs nothing. Jon thinks Stannis burnt Mance and Mel could have told Mance that it was Stannis' command, not admitting that she did it alone. So, Mance would be convinced Stannis was in.

If Mel or Stannis had said anything definitive, okay, but as it stands now, this is way too suspicious in my book. It doesn't add up IMO.

38 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And just to be clear, I firmly believe Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter.

I'm still on the fence, but I lean more to Mance Rayder. I think Ramsey would be the easy, obvious choice.

Because the letter used Theons words (I want my bride, I want my Reek) which Mance could have gotten while talking to Theon in WF and the letter also used Mance's words (... for all the world to see), a quote that neither Stannis nor Ramsey would have knowledge of - or at least only way later until after talking to/torturing Mance.

[GoldenGail3]

Ramsay did the Pink Letter. It’s too shocking for it not to be Ramsay’s own letter and besides, the Mannis is not the kind of man who’d write such a letter anyhow. It has to be Ramsay. I think if it was fake, it’d take away from the shock and impact of the Pink Letter.