Are the Sparrows a religious or popular movement?

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Kevan of House Lannister was backing that humiliation. And Tommen will do what the adults tell him to.

That is what I'd contest for an adult King Tommen. Remember, my point was that the High Septon could not hope to remain in the good graces of King Tommen forever in light of the things he did to his mother and wife.

Tommen the boy can do nothing, Tommen the king ruling in his own right can. As could Tommen's regents if Ser Kevan were to be resign or die.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The great powers of Europe were plural, thus none could claim a monopoly on the choice. As noted above, the weakness of those monarchies enabled the Church. The Faith of the Seven is in another boat, as it is entirely concentrated in Westeros, under the rule of one monarch.

Ah, well, I don't think it makes sense to separate church and state in an age where they were not separated. One has to differentiate between the papacy and the monarchs/princes, not the state and the church - because the church was everywhere and nobody wanted to harm it as church.

The whole struggle was about certain rights,

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Good points. Perhaps moving the center of the Faith to another city would be an item for the High Sparrow's future agenda.

I think the kind of agenda the High Septon has is more that of a reform - sort of like the Bernard of Clairvaux and the Cluniacs. Give the Faith a different, louder voice in the Realm's affairs.

Like with the papacy in the 11th century - it is clear that the High Septon is an avatar of the Seven, speaking for god, and thus on a completely different level than the king and his lords.

If there were great trouble in KL and open violence with the Iron Throne the High Septon could easily move back to the Starry Sept, but I'd surprise if that happened.

 

[Hugorfonics]

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Golden Company are a relatively small force relatively lacking in ties to Westeros. They'll want local help and buy-in. Cersei thought it was important that the High Septon give Tommen his blessing, but she's now vulnerable to their accusations. Young Griff has been raised by Septa Lemore in the ways of the Faith, so he'd be well suited to the throne if Cersei's children are deemed illegitmate and spawns of incest. Rivals like Stannis and Euron are heathens, so it makes sense for the Crown and Faith to unite against them.

No doubt, the Faith will never be friends with R'hllor, or the Drowned God, or the Trees. So, where does that leave us? Tomman or the GC? (Sansa/Harry? Maybe actually) Well if Tommy got a vendetta then the only option is Aegon... So why would Jon sanction the militant then? Why pay for the milk when the cows free? Its like Tywins thoughts of giving half the realm to Balon so he'll fight Stark, hes doing that regardless

[Saminstark]

On 3/26/2020 at 4:50 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Ok, I know the answer seems obvious at first, but really think about it. The Sparrows started not because of problems in the church, but due to the excesses of the nobles. Yes there are a lot of religious parts to it, but think about it their main goal seems to be some separations between the state and the church (though with some extra power added to the church). Also it's important how much they seem to focus on protecting the people. Yes reestablishing the Stars and Swords does have a lot of ramifications for the nobles, but they do seem to mainly stick to protecting people. All in all their ,,religious" actions seem to be more cultural actions, behaving in line with the cultural values of the people. Also their inevitable uprising against Cersei for Aegon may be a first sign of popular power in Westeros. So what do you think? Are the Sparrows more of a religious or popular movement? They clearly have parts of both, but which do you think is more preeminent?

I would say they're a bit of both, but I'd say they're a popular movement first. They seem to be more motivated by ideas of ''justice'' against the nobility than actual religion and I'm not sure their sexist beliefs are informed by the Faith of the Seven so much as culture.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No doubt, the Faith will never be friends with R'hllor, or the Drowned God, or the Trees. So, where does that leave us? Tomman or the GC? (Sansa/Harry? Maybe actually) Well if Tommy got a vendetta then the only option is Aegon... So why would Jon sanction the militant then? Why pay for the milk when the cows free? Its like Tywins thoughts of giving half the realm to Balon so he'll fight Stark, hes doing that regardless

Well there are quite a few gains. First off it's legitimacy. Making the High Septon declare for you, even before Tommen inevitably falls, would have a massive impact of Jon Conn's campaign, rallying a lot of pious lords to his side. Also the Sparrow's movement demands are quite simple and not that problematic to FAegon. They want a just, fair and pious ruler, which FAegon more then qualifies for, as well as justice and protection, again things FAegon already kinda goes for too (at least according to Varys). There is the problem of the Stars and Swords, but this only seems to be a problem if the ruler does something really stupid (like incest). Also future Targs probably wouldn't even have to bother with the incest thing, as Exceptionalism is by now quite old and no longer a problematic doctrine either for the faith or for the masses. So I don't see how FAegon's Targs couldn't co-exist with the Faith, as long as they don't do anything stupid.

[Shi Qiang]

How about they are an effective movement.  They were able to force a queen to publicly shame herself.  They were able to do what Robert and Ned was never able to do.  Punish Cersei.  The death of Tywin made that possible.  Kevan is not willing to spill many lives but Tywin would have to stop the shaming of his daughter.  

[frenin]

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No doubt, the Faith will never be friends with R'hllor, or the Drowned God, or the Trees. So, where does that leave us? Tomman or the GC? (Sansa/Harry? Maybe actually) Well if Tommy got a vendetta then the only option is Aegon... So why would Jon sanction the militant then? Why pay for the milk when the cows free? Its like Tywins thoughts of giving half the realm to Balon so he'll fight Stark, hes doing that regardless

Because he needs support, the support of a mighty HS is worth gold. One thing is that Westeros is willing to replace the Lannisters with anyone, another is that said anyone is going to last or their powrrbase is going to be big, they need Oldtown for that.

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well there are quite a few gains. First off it's legitimacy. Making the High Septon declare for you, even before Tommen inevitably falls, would have a massive impact of Jon Conn's campaign, 

Did the HS wind up declaring for Tommen? Lets assume yes. So the only way I can see the HS justifiably going back on his sacred public word is if Cerseis found guilty of exceptionalism. In which case the HS has to leave KL (or take it, but that aint happening) 

5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

rallying a lot of pious lords to his side. 

Again though, the cow is free. Theyre not siding with the squid wolf or fire already.

Ok, so I suppose Harrenhal is in Lannister hands, if the HS and Aegon make a deal while Lannister is still in Kl, I guess I see what your saying, but how many lords are as devout as the castellan of the hall of kings? (Does it matter? Lol Harrenhal is worth it)

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

. Also the Sparrow's movement demands are quite simple and not that problematic to FAegon. They want a just, fair and pious ruler, which FAegon more then qualifies for, as well as justice and protection, again things FAegon already kinda goes for too (at least according to Varys). 

Magic words, lol, according to Varys. I mean, Im sure Aegon will be kinda decent, seems chill to me. However hes still invading Westeros with a foreign band of sellswords, Vargo Hoat style. (again, Harrenhal, interesting) Sure they got heritage and mostly act all Sunset like, but theyre still there for war.

Sparrows got tight when knights horses ride over their crops and children, understandable. But the GC got horses too, and elephants. 

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

There is the problem of the Stars and Swords, but this only seems to be a problem if the ruler does something really stupid

Nah, its sharing your crown. Theyre the closest thing to a standing army, but ones with suspect loyalty. The SC is there to advise, not obstruct.

I mean we see the damage that they can do, why would they set themselves up like Cersei did? 

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Also future Targs probably wouldn't even have to bother with the incest thing, as Exceptionalism is by now quite old and no longer a problematic doctrine either for the faith or for the masses. 

Yea, hes trying to marry his aunt right? Probably gonna have to settle for a cousin. Its ok, theyre not actually related lol

5 hours ago, frenin said:

, the support of a mighty HS is worth gold. 

Is it? Joff defiled Baeolrs Sept with sad Neds head and the crowd went wild. How many lords put the Septons word above their interest? Especially when the words are chirps of a sparrow

5 hours ago, frenin said:

One thing is that Westeros is willing to replace the Lannisters with anyone, 

Exactly. Free cow. 

5 hours ago, frenin said:

another is that said anyone is going to last or their powrrbase is going to be big, they need Oldtown for that.

Its not worth the price

[frenin]

16 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Is it? Joff defiled Baeolrs Sept with sad Neds head and the crowd went wild. How many lords put the Septons word above their interest? Especially when the words are chirps of a sparrow

When the septons are armed?? Fairly a few. And that was before the war, people surely tpay more attention to the Septons now, thanks Cersei.

 

 

17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Its not worth the price

Doesn't seem a choice, Young G is either crowned by the faith or he is not going to be king, I doubt that the faith is going to renounce to their power after 200 años under the Crown's yoke

 

 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is what I'd contest for an adult King Tommen. Remember, my point was that the High Septon could not hope to remain in the good graces of King Tommen forever in light of the things he did to his mother and wife.

Tommen the boy can do nothing, Tommen the king ruling in his own right can. As could Tommen's regents if Ser Kevan were to be resign or die.

In a hypothetical where Varys isn't around to kill council members threatening to "undo Cersei's good work", Cersei is sent back to Casterly rock and Tommen grows up in King's Landing, surrounded by Kevan and his allies on the council. Tommen might be sad that his mom is gone, but it's not like the Faith killed her. Kevan could foresee a future in which King Tommen and the High Sparrow tolerate each other indefinitely without deluding himself, although of course he doesn't know about Varys.

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Ah, well, I don't think it makes sense to separate church and state in an age where they were not separated. One has to differentiate between the papacy and the monarchs/princes, not the state and the church - because the church was everywhere and nobody wanted to harm it as church.

The church was everywhere, but people were willing to harm the church many times. It was just harder to reliably dominate the church back when secular authorities were relatively weak.

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No doubt, the Faith will never be friends with R'hllor, or the Drowned God, or the Trees. So, where does that leave us? Tomman or the GC? (Sansa/Harry? Maybe actually) Well if Tommy got a vendetta then the only option is Aegon... So why would Jon sanction the militant then? Why pay for the milk when the cows free? Its like Tywins thoughts of giving half the realm to Balon so he'll fight Stark, hes doing that regardless

We don't know Tommen has a "vendetta", right now he's a child who just stamps everything without reading it. And the High Sparrow hasn't turned against him (as opposed to Cersei) yet, so the GC isn't getting any free milk now. They are invading, which means this conflict will come to a head before Tommen grows out of his regency. The Sparrow could choose to withdraw his expressed approval of Tommen in favor of Aegon, but he would probably want some guarantees in exchange for that (just as he made demands of Cersei).

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Did the HS wind up declaring for Tommen? Lets assume yes. So the only way I can see the HS justifiably going back on his sacred public word is if Cerseis found guilty of exceptionalism. In which case the HS has to leave KL (or take it, but that aint happening) 

The GC could seize it, with the Sparrow's help.

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Again though, the cow is free. Theyre not siding with the squid wolf or fire already.

No greenlanders are siding with the Ironborn (although I know there's speculation Cersei will attempt that in the future), and Stannis currently has a relatively small force which is occupied up north and at any rate incapable of seizing King's Landing. So the big choice is between Tommen and Aegon.

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Ok, so I suppose Harrenhal is in Lannister hands, if the HS and Aegon make a deal while Lannister is still in Kl, I guess I see what your saying, but how many lords are as devout as the castellan of the hall of kings? (Does it matter? Lol Harrenhal is worth it)

During the Dance, the Shepherd was able to drive Rhaenyra out of King's Landing and kill a number of her dragons. He wasn't even a Septon, much less a high one, and he didn't have an allied army like the GC might be. The Lannisters don't have any dragons, and they've been pissing people off longer than the half-year Queen. Their hold on KL could disappear if the High Sparrow allied with the GC against them.

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Magic words, lol, according to Varys. I mean, Im sure Aegon will be kinda decent, seems chill to me. However hes still invading Westeros with a foreign band of sellswords, Vargo Hoat style. (again, Harrenhal, interesting) 

The Brave Companions have one of the poorest reputations of Essosi mercenary companies, while the GC has the best. The GC were also formed by Westerosi exiles, even if they have incorporated many Essosi, so the cultural gap between them and native Westerosi won't be as large. A shared religion would be part of that. They are still invaders however without an existing powerbase of their own and plans to dispossess lords on the opposite side (Franklyn Flowers vs the Fossoways, possibly Rolly Duckfield vs the Caswells even if he's excluded from holding the land himself due to KG vows) so that will produce opposition. Aegon's lack of Jon Connington's aristocratic ethos (as shown by appointing Rolly) may also be just what Varys wanted, but will likely be a hindrance in allying with Westerosi nobility.

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Sure they got heritage and mostly act all Sunset like, but theyre still there for war.

As a mercenary company, they are there for pecuniary gain. Which is a contrast with some other fighters in this world, like Winter Wolves who set out to die in battle.

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Sparrows got tight when knights horses ride over their crops and children, understandable. But the GC got horses too, and elephants.

The Sparrows are upset because the chaos of war has led to breakdowns in norms over people like the clergy being spared from harm. So the question is whether Aegon & co are considered likely to increase that chaos, or tamp it down and help protect the Faithful.

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Nah, its sharing your crown. Theyre the closest thing to a standing army, but ones with suspect loyalty.

The Faith don't have a standing army. Under feudalism there aren't standing armies, just people with a capacity for violence who can be temporarily mobilized to fight. You could call that a monarch "sharing their crown" with the whole kshatriya caste, but that's just the way things are until they can afford their own standing army.

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Yea, hes trying to marry his aunt right? Probably gonna have to settle for a cousin.

Cousin-marriage is accepted by the Faith, even for non-Targaryens. I can't remember about aunt-nephew, but I know that uncle-niece is permitted under Judaism.

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Is it? Joff defiled Baeolrs Sept with sad Neds head and the crowd went wild. How many lords put the Septons word above their interest? Especially when the words are chirps of a sparrow

Joffrey's decision was idiotic, as everyone trying to keep his regime in place knew. Soon after street preachers were denouncing his family and there was a riot which killed the High Septon and a KG.

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Its not worth the price

What "price"? There hasn't been any communication between them, so certainly no specific offers or demands. Harry Strickland is supposedly in his element negotiating contracts rather than in the battlefield, so why deprive the man before his chance to shine?

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

In a hypothetical where Varys isn't around to kill council members threatening to "undo Cersei's good work", Cersei is sent back to Casterly rock and Tommen grows up in King's Landing, surrounded by Kevan and his allies on the council. Tommen might be sad that his mom is gone, but it's not like the Faith killed her. Kevan could foresee a future in which King Tommen and the High Sparrow tolerate each other indefinitely without deluding himself, although of course he doesn't know about Varys.

That isn't a particularly likely scenario. Kevan promises to send Cersei back to the Rock, but he would be a fool to do so, and an even greater fool if he assumed Cersei wouldn't do anything in her power to destroy him for what he did to her. Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. In a world where there is peace and quiet and Tommen grows up to become an old age, Kevan will be cast down quickly enough and Cersei will take up the regency again, backed an army of Westerlanders.

That said, the idea that Tommen would never learn about the humiliation of both his mother and his wife and the hands of the Faith and his great-uncle is not exactly convincing. Tommen is a tidbit younger than Aegon III right now, but he didn't grow up to become best friends with his regents either, did he?

The danger that a king coming into his own would take bloody vengeance on all who wronged him and his family is always there ... and this was the entire point here: The High Septon knowing that neither King Tommen nor anyone having his best interests at heart could want him, the High Septon, and the sparrows retain the amount of power they exerted over him. This has to stop. And he must know that this is a considerable danger.

And that is why Aegon is a natural ally to the High Septon and his sparrow, not Tommen. Tommen doesn't need the Faith. He already has the throne. But Aegon needs any ally he can get. And getting the Faith on board could be a tremendous help for him.

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The church was everywhere, but people were willing to harm the church many times. It was just harder to reliably dominate the church back when secular authorities were relatively weak.

Well, technically the church was first under the thumb of the emperors who made them an official and eventually the state religion and only gradually presumed to rule exert control over worldly authorities.

But the point being is that we are not talking about secular government vs. the church. We are talking about deeply religious and pious princes and kings and emperors having 'administrative differences about how they ran their own governments' with high clerics. They were pretty much on the same page aside from some details.

One is already buying into church propaganda when one takes the view that state and church fought there in the way they might in modernity.

[Hugorfonics]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, technically the church was first under the thumb of the emperors who made them an official and eventually the state religion and only gradually presumed to rule exert control over worldly authorities.

The official state religion of the Empire may have been Catholicism but the reformation was born and thrived within the Empire too, with the help of local lords and the Emperor himself. You know that old expression, it wasnt holy wasnt roman and wasnt an empire lol

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We don't know Tommen has a "vendetta", right now he's a child who just stamps everything without reading it. And the High Sparrow hasn't turned against him (as opposed to Cersei) yet, so the GC isn't getting any free milk now. They are invading, which means this conflict will come to a head before Tommen grows out of his regency. The Sparrow could choose to withdraw his expressed approval of Tommen in favor of Aegon, but he would probably want some guarantees in exchange for that (just as he made demands of Cersei).

If Cersei is found guilty in her trial then itd be free milk, Tommen cant be king. 

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The GC could seize it, with the Sparrow's help.

I suppose thats a possibility

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

During the Dance, the Shepherd was able to drive Rhaenyra out of King's Landing and kill a number of her dragons. He wasn't even a Septon, much less a high one, and he didn't have an allied army like the GC might be. The Lannisters don't have any dragons, and they've been pissing people off longer than the half-year Queen. Their hold on KL could disappear if the High Sparrow allied with the GC against them.

This is the time that I firmly hold the tinfoil to my head. The Mage said dont believe the maesters history when it pertains dragon killing. So...

Having said that, dragons did die and the realms delight had to abandon KL so something happened, and an ex Hand like Griff could feasibly find his way into the city he once called home

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Brave Companions have one of the poorest reputations of Essosi mercenary companies, while the GC has the best. The GC were also formed by Westerosi exiles, even if they have incorporated many Essosi, so the cultural gap between them and native Westerosi won't be as large. A shared religion would be part of that. 

Word. Not Vargo Hoat like but Vargo Hoat style lol. At the end of the day we're not comparing apples to oranges

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They are still invaders however without an existing powerbase of their own and plans to dispossess lords on the opposite side (Franklyn Flowers vs the Fossoways, possibly Rolly Duckfield vs the Caswells even if he's excluded from holding the land himself due to KG vows) so that will produce opposition. 

Exactly. (Isnt Duck smallfolk, why Caswell?)

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

As a mercenary company, they are there for pecuniary gain. Which is a contrast with some other fighters in this world, like Winter Wolves who set out to die in battle.

(Didnt the winter wolves set out to take KL?)

Yea mostly, theres that facade that theyre coming home like Dany. But even further removed then her, like a few steps lol.

Either way, im sure the GC will behave like every other army, short of Beric/Catelyn, and terrorize the smallfolk

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Sparrows are upset because the chaos of war has led to breakdowns in norms over people like the clergy being spared from harm. So the question is whether Aegon & co are considered likely to increase that chaos, or tamp it down and help protect the Faithful.

And the answer is, theyre sellswords.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Faith don't have a standing army. Under feudalism there aren't standing armies, just people with a capacity for violence who can be temporarily mobilized to fight. You could call that a monarch "sharing their crown" with the whole kshatriya caste, but that's just the way things are 

Your right, standing army may be too official. (I wanted to say the Stars and Swords are like the SS, cuz im lazy and like to abbreviate words, but I thought that's a little too dark, and still inaccurate) But theyre still something. So in Westeros feudalism we have farmers who one day hear a bell and go soldering till the war ends. But we also got folk like Dunk who act like some sort of military police. Both classes of ex soldier smallfolk and mobilized knights swear loyalty to their king. 

This militant business, the smallfolk quit their jobs and are now working for God, the Knights as well have found a higher calling then sleeping in a hedge. Its no good. Its one thing to live off your lords whim, theyre greedy lords and can be bought. Gods not for sale.

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

 but that's just the way things are until they can afford their own standing army.

I dont see that happening unless the great lords powers are greatly diminished

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Cousin-marriage is accepted by the Faith, even for non-Targaryens. I can't remember about aunt-nephew, but I know that uncle-niece is permitted under Judaism.

Gross. I knew theyre big on the widowed sister in law, like Catelyn Tully (though she was just engaged), which is mad strange too. 

Yea cousins are a thing, still gross lol

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Joffrey's decision was idiotic, as everyone trying to keep his regime in place knew. Soon after street preachers were denouncing his family and there was a riot which killed the High Septon and a KG.

Yea, they didnt care about Gods representative.

Anyway, that was all probably due to Varys yelling the word bread in different accents. 

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What "price"? There hasn't been any communication between them, so certainly no specific offers or demands. Harry Strickland is supposedly in his element negotiating contracts rather than in the battlefield, so why deprive the man before his chance to shine?

Hey, if they can open the doors of KL Id certainly think about it, but im greedy and short sighted like that lol. 

If the price is allowing anyone to have a voice in his government then its too high. Kinda like what Renly said, which I suppose didnt work out at all lol

[FictionIsntReal]

On 4/7/2020 at 11:27 PM, Lord Varys said:

That isn't a particularly likely scenario. Kevan promises to send Cersei back to the Rock, but he would be a fool to do so, and an even greater fool if he assumed Cersei wouldn't do anything in her power to destroy him for what he did to her. Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. In a world where there is peace and quiet and Tommen grows up to become an old age, Kevan will be cast down quickly enough and Cersei will take up the regency again, backed an army of Westerlanders.

Why would he be a fool to do so? He correctly believes that she's just caused problems and undermined the regime. Everything she's done has blown up in her face, and she's just been publicly humiliated after confessing to some of her sins, which is more than Aegon IV needed to experience before giving up on conquering Dorne. Kevan's incorrect to believe this will declaw her in an enduring way, but that's because he doesn't know Varys/GRRM will throw things back into chaos. Cersei's power came from being regent, and she won't have that once she's shipped back to Casterly Rock, and the Lannister loyalists there are less likely to take part in any attempt to "destroy" Kevan when he seems like the next closest thing to Tywin while Cersei is a disgraced fool. You'll note that in Varys' parable about where power comes from, none of the men had just experienced a Walk of Shame.

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That said, the idea that Tommen would never learn about the humiliation of both his mother and his wife and the hands of the Faith and his great-uncle is not exactly convincing. Tommen is a tidbit younger than Aegon III right now, but he didn't grow up to become best friends with his regents either, did he?

He'll be taught what happened to Cersei as a cautionary tale. Margaery hasn't confessed or been convicted of anything yet, she's just been subject to Cersei's trumped up accusations. If Margaery is vindicated, the convenient thing will be to just blame Cersei for everything. Joffrey hardly had much respect for his mother, and she plainly preferred Joffrey to Tommen. Aegon III's regents were less related to him and his wife than Kevan and Mace are to Tommen (you could also factor in a Dornish seat as another in-law), which makes for a less natural alliance.

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The danger that a king coming into his own would take bloody vengeance on all who wronged him and his family is always there ... and this was the entire point here: The High Septon knowing that neither King Tommen nor anyone having his best interests at heart could want him, the High Septon, and the sparrows retain the amount of power they exerted over him. This has to stop.

Tommen himself hasn't been wronged. He's still king, and he's not like some pre-Meiji Emperor either. A figure within the ruling coalition tried to oust another, failing badly, but the coalition is still in charge even if weakened. That coalition probably isn't happy about Cersei granting so much power to the faith, but they're not going to take "vengeance" on the Sparrow for exploiting her inept negotiating ability. Kevan is implied to have been behind the Walk of Shame, inspired by Tywin's humiliation of his father's mistress, and he probably thinks he can do far better job of handling the Sparrow.

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And he must know that this is a considerable danger.

Everything the High Sparrow did was without knowledge of Aegon. Did he really think he was dooming himself? Or did he think his more powerful church would be able to continue under Tommen, even if the crown wasn't happy about it?

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And that is why Aegon is a natural ally to the High Septon and his sparrow, not Tommen.

I think Aegon is a natural ally because he's been raised by a septa and doesn't have all the awful baggage the Lannister regime has accumulated (some of which even traces back to Robert, as with street preacher I mentioned earlier).

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Tommen doesn't need the Faith. He already has the throne.

If Tommen wants to keep the throne, he'll want allies too. An alliance between throne and alter has often been natural.

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But the point being is that we are not talking about secular government vs. the church. We are talking about deeply religious and pious princes and kings and emperors having 'administrative differences about how they ran their own governments' with high clerics. They were pretty much on the same page aside from some details.

One is already buying into church propaganda when one takes the view that state and church fought there in the way they might in modernity.

The degree to which officially Christian secular authorities were actually religious/pious varied. There's a story from medieval French history in which a noble was upset that the king had given some of his land to another noble and among his responses was to burn down a nunnery, and the medieval chronicler blamed this on... the king, as if it was only expected that a noble would react that way. In case you think that's too small a scale, Rome was also sacked by nominally Catholic Normans and later the Holy Roman Empire when their rulers got ticked at the pope. I guess Rome hasn't been sacked in a while, so modernity really is different!

On 4/8/2020 at 10:22 AM, Hugorfonics said:

The official state religion of the Empire may have been Catholicism but the reformation was born and thrived within the Empire too, with the help of local lords and the Emperor himself. You know that old expression, it wasnt holy wasnt roman and wasnt an empire lol

I believe he's referring to the older Roman/Byzantine emperors, not the later Germans.

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This is the time that I firmly hold the tinfoil to my head. The Mage said dont believe the maesters history when it pertains dragon killing. So..

Interestingly, Maester Gyldayn expresses some skepticism of Maester Munkun's account, due to its reliance on Maester Orwyle, which is part of why he supplements with Mushroom and Septon Eustace. But the Shepherd storming the dragonpit was a gigantic public event, not something maesters could easily hush up.

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Exactly. (Isnt Duck smallfolk, why Caswell?)

Rolly was the son of a blacksmith whose lord was Caswell. Rolly was given a sword on his birthday, and the awful Caswell heir (who is now lord himself) tried to take it from him, so Rolly beat him up and fled into exile. Jorah Mormont still despises Ned Stark while in exile, I expect Rolly would also like to have the last laugh at Lorent.

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Yea mostly, theres that facade that theyre coming home like Dany. But even further removed then her, like a few steps lol.

Unlike her, they're actually in Westeros now. Although in terms of birth, the ones born in Westeros like Rolly, Connington and Franklyn Flowers are probably a minority. Then again, an even smaller percentage of Daenerys' followers are Westerosi, and she's technically never set foot on Westeros.

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Either way, im sure the GC will behave like every other army, short of Beric/Catelyn, and terrorize the smallfolk

Do you include Stannis' army there?

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Your right, standing army may be too official. (I wanted to say the Stars and Swords are like the SS, cuz im lazy and like to abbreviate words, but I thought that's a little too dark, and still inaccurate) But theyre still something. So in Westeros feudalism we have farmers who one day hear a bell and go soldering till the war ends. But we also got folk like Dunk who act like some sort of military police. Both classes of ex soldier smallfolk and mobilized knights swear loyalty to their king.

The more pre-modern term you might be thinking of is "militia".

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Yea, they didnt care about Gods representative

The fat High Septon was corrupt and got an appointment because he supported the regime. The High Sparrow got his position on the back of a popular uprising. The throughline between the King's Landing riot and his election should be evident.

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Anyway, that was all probably due to Varys yelling the word bread in different accents.

Varys didn't create the conditions which made KL ripe for a riot, the Lannisters did.

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Hey, if they can open the doors of KL Id certainly think about it, but im greedy and short sighted like that lol. 

If the price is allowing anyone to have a voice in his government then its too high. Kinda like what Renly said, which I suppose didnt work out at all lol

Yes, I think you are more short sighted than adept players of the Game of Thrones.

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Why would he be a fool to do so? He correctly believes that she's just caused problems and undermined the regime. Everything she's done has blown up in her face, and she's just been publicly humiliated after confessing to some of her sins, which is more than Aegon IV needed to experience before giving up on conquering Dorne. Kevan's incorrect to believe this will declaw her in an enduring way, but that's because he doesn't know Varys/GRRM will throw things back into chaos. Cersei's power came from being regent, and she won't have that once she's shipped back to Casterly Rock, and the Lannister loyalists there are less likely to take part in any attempt to "destroy" Kevan when he seems like the next closest thing to Tywin while Cersei is a disgraced fool. You'll note that in Varys' parable about where power comes from, none of the men had just experienced a Walk of Shame.

Because Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock and the king's mother. If he wanted to ensure she would not make any problems in the future a tower cell would be the best place for her, not Casterly Rock. Kevan has delusions about being able to pay the Crown's debts with Lannister gold ... how likely you think that's going to be if Cersei controls the Lannister finances directly?

Very few Westermen saw Cersei being dragged through the mud ... but we can be sure that most who will hear about that will be very, very angry.

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He'll be taught what happened to Cersei as a cautionary tale. Margaery hasn't confessed or been convicted of anything yet, she's just been subject to Cersei's trumped up accusations. If Margaery is vindicated, the convenient thing will be to just blame Cersei for everything. Joffrey hardly had much respect for his mother, and she plainly preferred Joffrey to Tommen. Aegon III's regents were less related to him and his wife than Kevan and Mace are to Tommen (you could also factor in a Dornish seat as another in-law), which makes for a less natural alliance.

It is irrelevant what Tommen will be told, it is important what he will come to believe and what people might fear what he might come to believe.

And the idea that the Faith is out there to acquit Margaery is a rather daring idea ... they presumed to lay hands on her and Cersei without having any authority or jurisdiction whatsoever. The idea that the High Septon did this without the desire to destroy both those queens once he started the charade seems to be very far-fetched to me. This man is going through with all his threats, like Tywin. There is a reason why the author has Cersei suddenly see something of her father in him.

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Tommen himself hasn't been wronged. He's still king, and he's not like some pre-Meiji Emperor either. A figure within the ruling coalition tried to oust another, failing badly, but the coalition is still in charge even if weakened. That coalition probably isn't happy about Cersei granting so much power to the faith, but they're not going to take "vengeance" on the Sparrow for exploiting her inept negotiating ability. Kevan is implied to have been behind the Walk of Shame, inspired by Tywin's humiliation of his father's mistress, and he probably thinks he can do far better job of handling the Sparrow.

Of course he has been wronged! His mother and wife who he, as the king, is supposed to protect have been attacked by people who don't even give a damn about his opinion or wishes. They do not even have the kindness to inform him what happens (this is also something that could eventually backfire on the people around because somebody would eventually tell Tommen what actually happened).

Kevan is not implied to have been behind the walk. He is implied to have agreed to such an idea together with the High Septon, which is a difference. And in his dealings with the Faith Kevan showed weakness, not strength. Tarly freed Margaery and her cousins from the sparrows, Kevan allowed them to drag the Queen Dowager through the mud. That reflects badly on him, House Lannister, and King Tommen. He tried to mitigate those effects by having no Lannister guardsmen, etc. there but people still know that the woman in the mud is Queen Cersei of House Lannister, the mother of King Tommen, and not just some woman.

And as I pointed out, we see a strong tendency in Tommen's government to put down the sparrows for their presumptions. Tarly wants to kill them outright, Mace wants Tommen to declare Margaery's innocence and not permit a trial by the Faith. The idea that a living Kevan could have remained in control of the regency government or decided what Tommen would be told in the future isn't very convincing.

If Margaery were acquitted Kevan would not last all that long as Lord Regent. The Tyrells want all the power and they will take it eventually.

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Everything the High Sparrow did was without knowledge of Aegon. Did he really think he was dooming himself? Or did he think his more powerful church would be able to continue under Tommen, even if the crown wasn't happy about it?

Perhaps he actually thinks he can do what he wants because he is the Voice of the Seven on Earth? Wouldn't be the first time ... there were High Septons who even defied the dragons.

But how do you know the High Septon doesn't know a Targaryen is coming? Keep in mind that Varys is last seen disguised as a begging brother in ASoS and the rise of the sparrow movement to prominence and power went very quickly. It was rather convenient that they knew in which brothel to find Septon Ollidor, no?

If I were Varys and I wanted to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne I'd lay a foundation so that the Kingslanders would believe in, hope for, and expect the return of a Targaryen to Westeros. And I'd also ensure he would have the support of the Faith.

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think Aegon is a natural ally because he's been raised by a septa and doesn't have all the awful baggage the Lannister regime has accumulated (some of which even traces back to Robert, as with street preacher I mentioned earlier).

I don't think the sparrows know or would care about stories that this Aegon impostor was raised by some soiled/alleged septa. I mean, who is going to tell them? And who is going to convince them that this was true if they would not be interested in Aegon?

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Tommen wants to keep the throne, he'll want allies too. An alliance between throne and alter has often been natural.

Tommen is neither informed nor asked about anything so far, and we can expect this to continue. But the point here is that Tommen isn't all that likely to give the Faith as many concessions as Aegon might. Tommen's government is unhappy with the current circumstances, as might Tommen himself once he grows older ... Aegon, on the other hand, has to take what he can. He cannot be picky.

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The degree to which officially Christian secular authorities were actually religious/pious varied. There's a story from medieval French history in which a noble was upset that the king had given some of his land to another noble and among his responses was to burn down a nunnery, and the medieval chronicler blamed this on... the king, as if it was only expected that a noble would react that way. In case you think that's too small a scale, Rome was also sacked by nominally Catholic Normans and later the Holy Roman Empire when their rulers got ticked at the pope. I guess Rome hasn't been sacked in a while, so modernity really is different!

Well, being Christian doesn't mean you do not rape or plunder or go to war. Just ask the Knights Templar. And of course personal piety varied, but no Christian king or prince would say he wasn't Christian or ruling by the divine right of kings, wasn't anointed by god himself, etc.

My point simply is that in a world where state and church aren't separated and the formal supremacy of the religious head is recognized all that remains are internal conflicts about how the government/kingdoms are organized - and those were the issues in the Investiture Controversy. There were established practices of government and the role bishops played in all that which were suddenly seen as improper and should be changed. Of course there were other issues here and there, but nobody ever wanted to abolish or suppress the church. In fact, clerics and monks played great parts on both sides of the issue.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I believe he's referring to the older Roman/Byzantine emperors, not the later Germans.

Gotcha

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Interestingly, Maester Gyldayn expresses some skepticism of Maester Munkun's account, due to its reliance on Maester Orwyle, which is part of why he supplements with Mushroom and Septon Eustace. But the Shepherd storming the dragonpit was a gigantic public event, not something maesters could easily hush up.

Yea thats true. Still, its an alarming sentence.

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Marywn smiled a ghastly smile, the juice of the sourleaf running red between his teeth. "Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? Gallant dragonslayers armed with swords?" He spat.

 

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Rolly was the son of a blacksmith whose lord was Caswell. Rolly was given a sword on his birthday, and the awful Caswell heir (who is now lord himself) tried to take it from him, so Rolly beat him up and fled into exile. Jorah Mormont still despises Ned Stark while in exile, I expect Rolly would also like to have the last laugh at Lorent.

I feel bad for daddy blacksmith, dude almost definitely got in trouble. If he got killed I could see Duck justifiably mad, still like you said, hes kg.

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Unlike her, they're actually in Westeros now. Although in terms of birth, the ones born in Westeros like Rolly, Connington and Franklyn Flowers are probably a minority. Then again, an even smaller percentage of Daenerys' followers are Westerosi, and she's technically never set foot on Westeros.

I just meant that Dany has a claim in (to) westeros while Flowers and Bittersteels replacement does not

(And technically Dany was born on Westeros)

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Do you include Stannis' army there?

Yea sure. Well, maybe not. But only from lack of effort.

Like, he wanted to recruit a bunch of wildlings to liberate the North, which probably wouldnt reap the same benefits as Buckets and them, plus there was the whole let pirates rape KL thing

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The more pre-modern term you might be thinking of is "militia".

Yea maybe. Still not great though. Idk, in my mind a militia is less organized then the militant. Plus theyre smaller while the militant is in most of the south

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The fat High Septon was corrupt and got an appointment because he supported the regime. The High Sparrow got his position on the back of a popular uprising. The throughline between the King's Landing riot and his election should be evident.

Every HS since the Maegor administration has been a puppet for the regime.

The fat man with an extravagant crown got starving flee bottomers upset, sure. But if they were really that religious they wouldnt have killed him.

2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Yes, I think you are more short sighted than adept players of the Game of Thrones.

Adept? Idk, how many are there? I like the spider and the imp, maybe the cheesemonger. But Littlefingers lucky, While Thrones is as skillful as her son, dido with Doran.

Sparrow got moves I suppose, Griff too.

[FictionIsntReal]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock and the king's mother.

She's separated from the king and everyone else in King's Landing who've been obedient to her. She'll be in Casterly Rock, where everyone has been taking orders from Tywin rather than Cersei (although even a former KL Cersei loyalist like Pycelle turned against her). Tywin's loyalists know he didn't trust Cersei with responsibility and sent Tyrion to put her and Joffrey in check. She might be nominally lady of Casterly Rock, but Tywin wound up in charge even when Tytos was still alive and lord simply because Tytos had lost everyone's respect. Winterfell doesn't officially have Targaryen-style male preference in inheritance, but men there have made it a de facto rule that women don't inherit.

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Very few Westermen saw Cersei being dragged through the mud ... but we can be sure that most who will hear about that will be very, very angry.

I don't think we can be sure. Kevan wasn't angry, and I'll expect he'll tell them what to think about it. He's a sort of lesser Tywin, but still close enough to Tywin to command the respect of those who looked up to Tywin.

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It is irrelevant what Tommen will be told, it is important what he will come to believe and what people might fear what he might come to believe.

Why will he come to believe other than what his regents tell him?

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And the idea that the Faith is out there to acquit Margaery is a rather daring idea ... they presumed to lay hands on her and Cersei without having any authority or jurisdiction whatsoever. The idea that the High Septon did this without the desire to destroy both those queens once he started the charade seems to be very far-fetched to me.

Thomas Jefferson regarded Marbury v. Madison as a usurpation of power by SCOTUS... but since the conclusion of that specific case was in his favor he didn't do anything about it. The High Sparrow has already told Cersei that all but one Margaery's accusers have recanted (that one exception is the insane/unreliable Blue Bard), and that Kettleblack accused her instead. It sounds like a trial by the Faith would acquit Margaery.

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Of course he has been wronged! His mother and wife who he, as the king, is supposed to protect have been attacked by people who don't even give a damn about his opinion or wishes.

They've been arrested, and his mother has confessed to some of her crimes. And since Tommen is in his regency, it's not expected that adults will only act on his say-so, particularly if one of his regents needs to be removed. Margaery's accusers have recanted and accused Cersei of orchestrating false accusations against Margaery, so it would seem to be imperative to arrest Cersei in order to clear Margaery. It's not the duty of the king to protect one of his kin from their own self-destructive attacks on his wife.

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Kevan is not implied to have been behind the walk.

He thinks about it being necessary to tame Cersei, just as Tywin did to his father's mistress. "What I did, I did for the good of House Lannister."

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If Margaery were acquitted Kevan would not last all that long as Lord Regent. The Tyrells want all the power and they will take it eventually.

The Tyrells want power, but they aren't as suicidal as Cersei. They know that the regime will be more stable if they have an alliance with another powerful house. Indeed, that's why political marriages are so popular.

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Perhaps he actually thinks he can do what he wants because he is the Voice of the Seven on Earth?

We haven't gotten much indication that he personally has delusions of grandeur, instead he just has a low enough opinion of the royals to think they deserve what he has coming for them. He didn't simply re-arm the Faith on the assumption that nobody would stop him, he actually got Cersei to agree to it.

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But how do you know the High Septon doesn't know a Targaryen is coming? Keep in mind that Varys is last seen disguised as a begging brother in ASoS and the rise of the sparrow movement to prominence and power went very quickly.

That's a lot for Varys to pull off while he's missing. Brienne encountered the High Sparrow prior to his election, and he was just some wandering septon without any discernible political connections. Even Varys didn't know Aegon was coming that quickly, as the plan had been for him to first meet up with Daenerys and then invade together.

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It was rather convenient that they knew in which brothel to find Septon Ollidor, no?

He was followed to that brothel, so they just had to know where he was prior to that. The High Sparrow doesn't even become the leading candidate after that, instead Luceon does and the sparrows disrupt the vote.

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If I were Varys and I wanted to restore a Targaryen to the Iron Throne I'd lay a foundation so that the Kingslanders would believe in, hope for, and expect the return of a Targaryen to Westeros. And I'd also ensure he would have the support of the Faith.

The best way to ensure support is with a hand-picked High Septon, which is what the crown had been attempting earlier. The High Sparrow coming to power was not a predictable event.

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I don't think the sparrows know or would care about stories that this Aegon impostor was raised by some soiled/alleged septa.

He's going to appear in public with Jon Connington, well known noble and former Hand (along with friend of the Targaryen heir, from whose descent Aegon is claiming the throne), along with Lemore in her septa's robes. He's going to present himself as steeped in the Faith, which he'll be capable of doing since he actually is, and those hostile to the Lannisters will want to believe him.

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But the point here is that Tommen isn't all that likely to give the Faith as many concessions as Aegon might.

Here, I'll agree. Tommen is currently on the throne, and staying on requires less than getting on.

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Well, being Christian doesn't mean you do not rape or plunder or go to war.

The relevant point is not WHETHER they committed such acts but WHOM they committed them against.

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Just ask the Knights Templar

As knights, they certainly went to war. I don't think they were especially known for rape and plunder, though Philip the "Fair" made a number of accusations against them when he got greedy. They actually accumulated lots of property because their fellow Christians gave it to them to manage, and they became an early bank/multinational corporation.

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no Christian king or prince would say he wasn't Christian or ruling by the divine right of kings

Kings didn't invent "divine right". The church did in an effort to constrain them, by emphasizing that they only ruled by the grace of God. Bertrand de Jouvenel discusses this in "On Power".

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but nobody ever wanted to abolish or suppress the church

Henry VIII didn't "abolish" the Catholic church, but he did proclaim his own church and seized a lot of church property to redistribute, with the Catholic church thereafter considered a natural enemy of the nation. You could consider him to be significantly different from the medievals who remained nominally Catholic, but my earlier examples sufficed to show they didn't necessarily regard the church as sacred and untouchable.

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yea thats true. Still, its an alarming sentence.

An implausible claim isn't alarming simply due to how extreme it is. Marwyn's claims about a conspiracy within the Citadel against maesters like Aemon are also belied by the fact that Marwyn himself is an archmaester who appears to have free reign to do whatever he wants, with others merely scoffing, along with Aemon's own account of joining the Night's Watch by choice so as not to be claimant for the throne.

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I could see Duck justifiably mad, still like you said, hes kg.

He might want to disposess the Caswells even if he can't inherit himself. I'm sure there are plenty of landless members of the GC who'd be happy to claim the spoils.

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The fat man with an extravagant crown got starving flee bottomers upset, sure. But if they were really that religious they wouldnt have killed him.

Would really religious people refrain from killing someone they regard as an antipope?

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

She's separated from the king and everyone else in King's Landing who've been obedient to her. She'll be in Casterly Rock, where everyone has been taking orders from Tywin rather than Cersei (although even a former KL Cersei loyalist like Pycelle turned against her). Tywin's loyalists know he didn't trust Cersei with responsibility and sent Tyrion to put her and Joffrey in check. She might be nominally lady of Casterly Rock, but Tywin wound up in charge even when Tytos was still alive and lord simply because Tytos had lost everyone's respect. Winterfell doesn't officially have Targaryen-style male preference in inheritance, but men there have made it a de facto rule that women don't inherit.

Sorry, but you are going in very strange territory. There is no question that Cersei Lannister is ruling Casterly Rock and the West. She isn't there, but she decides what happens. She named the castellan of Casterly Rock (her cousin Damion) and the new Warden of the West (her other cousin Daven). These are her people, not Kevan's. Kevan is - as she says - just a knight in her father's service. He is nothing in his own right, and if he doesn't ensure Cersei control Cersei's person she would crush him like bug. He could make trouble for Cersei if he were in the West, of course, but if he were occupied with ruling the Realm as regent he couldn't do things in the West where Cersei would be in our scenario.

Winterfell actually seems to have a strictly male-only succession since, well, forever.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think we can be sure. Kevan wasn't angry, and I'll expect he'll tell them what to think about it. He's a sort of lesser Tywin, but still close enough to Tywin to command the respect of those who looked up to Tywin.

Kevan is an able administrator but he is a follower, not a ruler or lord.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Why will he come to believe other than what his regents tell him?

Because he is a person who is going to talk to people other than his regents?

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Thomas Jefferson regarded Marbury v. Madison as a usurpation of power by SCOTUS... but since the conclusion of that specific case was in his favor he didn't do anything about it. The High Sparrow has already told Cersei that all but one Margaery's accusers have recanted (that one exception is the insane/unreliable Blue Bard), and that Kettleblack accused her instead. It sounds like a trial by the Faith would acquit Margaery.

Reread the section in AFfC - the High Septon arrests the queen and only then asks for permission. That is something the people in power won't forget. They can't. A man like Tarly makes that clear.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

They've been arrested, and his mother has confessed to some of her crimes. And since Tommen is in his regency, it's not expected that adults will only act on his say-so, particularly if one of his regents needs to be removed. Margaery's accusers have recanted and accused Cersei of orchestrating false accusations against Margaery, so it would seem to be imperative to arrest Cersei in order to clear Margaery. It's not the duty of the king to protect one of his kin from their own self-destructive attacks on his wife.

It would depend on the outcome. And the plan of the Faith is to convict Margaery anyway. They did not take Osney's confession as evidence that Margaery is innocent. Her maidenhead is broken and thus she is seen as guilty until 'proven' otherwise - and the Faith will decide whether this is 'proven' if there is to be trial.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He thinks about it being necessary to tame Cersei, just as Tywin did to his father's mistress. "What I did, I did for the good of House Lannister."

Oh, I know that quote and it does indeed confirm that Kevan and the High Septon worked together to force Cersei to do the walk ... but it does not prove it was Kevan's idea or something he even came up with. All it does is that he decided not to force the High Septon to just release Cersei.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Tyrells want power, but they aren't as suicidal as Cersei. They know that the regime will be more stable if they have an alliance with another powerful house. Indeed, that's why political marriages are so popular.

Reread the Epilogue. Relations are very chilly between the Tyrells and Lannisters. These two houses are no longer allies. They do not yet openly fight ... yet. If Kevan had lived they may have continued to work together but Mace would have done everything in his power to oust Kevan and any other Lannisters left at Tommen's court. And he simply has the power to do just that. He has the army and the Lannisters have a couple of personal guardsmen.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We haven't gotten much indication that he personally has delusions of grandeur, instead he just has a low enough opinion of the royals to think they deserve what he has coming for them. He didn't simply re-arm the Faith on the assumption that nobody would stop him, he actually got Cersei to agree to it.

They had already restored the Poor Fellows before they were formally rearmed. Just watch the people Cersei meets outside the Great Sept. They broke the law and then convinced the Queen Regent to sign off on that.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's a lot for Varys to pull off while he's missing. Brienne encountered the High Sparrow prior to his election, and he was just some wandering septon without any discernible political connections. Even Varys didn't know Aegon was coming that quickly, as the plan had been for him to first meet up with Daenerys and then invade together.

The idea is that he helped them along once the movement started ... just as he had prepared things for a Targaryen restoration in the city for years. He knew the timetable of his own plan. Things like that play about the dragon hatching from an egg and devouring the lions is something Varys' agents would spread in the city.

The point of bringing in an independent lowborn High Septon is to create a split between King Tommen and the Faith. And this worked. Tommen cannot count of the Faith to denounce the Targaryens/Aegon when they come.

Varys also have every reason to lay the groundwork for a Targaryen restoration as early as he can ... never mind when exactly Aegon and/or Dany show up.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He was followed to that brothel, so they just had to know where he was prior to that. The High Sparrow doesn't even become the leading candidate after that, instead Luceon does and the sparrows disrupt the vote.

Sure, and one can also ask how it is that those people dared doing something like that. Weren't they afraid that the Iron Throne would do something about this?

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The best way to ensure support is with a hand-picked High Septon, which is what the crown had been attempting earlier. The High Sparrow coming to power was not a predictable event.

For somebody like Varys this certainly could be a predictable event ... especially if he helped to bring it about.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He's going to appear in public with Jon Connington, well known noble and former Hand (along with friend of the Targaryen heir, from whose descent Aegon is claiming the throne), along with Lemore in her septa's robes. He's going to present himself as steeped in the Faith, which he'll be capable of doing since he actually is, and those hostile to the Lannisters will want to believe him.

And when is he going to do that? When he has already taken KL he is no longer going to need the High Septon and the sparrows. Aegon needs their support before he has won the Iron Throne, not afterwards. Afterwards he'll get everything he wants, anyway, since him having the throne entails him having the city (unless we go by a very weird scenario).

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The relevant point is not WHETHER they committed such acts but WHOM they committed them against.

Attacking monasteries and nunneries is hardly a surprise in a medieval war. They were everywhere and rich as hell, so where do you get spoils when not by sacking those places?

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Kings didn't invent "divine right". The church did in an effort to constrain them, by emphasizing that they only ruled by the grace of God. Bertrand de Jouvenel discusses this in "On Power".

Monarchy has many colors and many springs fed the river of the divine right (for instance, the English kings were anointed since the oldest Anglo-Saxon days, removing them from lesser men in some kind of holy ceremony). The function of the divine right to rule united 'state' and 'church' in the sense that kings could count on god to defend their right to rule.

Now, it also strengthened the power of the Papacy but the authority of the Pope to 'rule Earth' wasn't in doubt since the very early middle ages. The struggle there was between Emperor and Pope - and that was more or less simply decided by the fact that the Western Empire collapsed and, Justinian aside, there was no Emperor in the West from 476-800 (when Charlemagne became Emperor).

The whole Investiture Controversy was an issue of the internal management of the HRE and other kingdoms - bishops had become powerful royal officials which were used as means to keep the nobility in check and control the local churches (by giving powerful church offices to family members). This was something the reformists challenged. It was a much bigger issue in the HRE than in France or England where the situation allowed for a compromises.

In fact, the French church was traditionally very much under the thumb of the kings, not only under the absolutist kings.

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Henry VIII didn't "abolish" the Catholic church, but he did proclaim his own church and seized a lot of church property to redistribute, with the Catholic church thereafter considered a natural enemy of the nation. You could consider him to be significantly different from the medievals who remained nominally Catholic, but my earlier examples sufficed to show they didn't necessarily regard the church as sacred and untouchable.

Henry VIII is not that different from Justinian or Theodosius or Constantine. Protestantism made church and state completely indistinguishable (at least those sects which created state churchs).

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

An implausible claim isn't alarming simply due to how extreme it is. Marwyn's claims about a conspiracy within the Citadel against maesters like Aemon are also belied by the fact that Marwyn himself is an archmaester who appears to have free reign to do whatever he wants, with others merely scoffing, along with Aemon's own account of joining the Night's Watch by choice so as not to be claimant for the throne.

 

Do you think the Mage was flat out lying? About all of it? Targ blood, dragons, Sam was about to die?

Here's another alarming sentence(s) where the plausibility is justified with alarming evidence

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"If I were queen, the first thing I would do would be to kill all those grey rats. They scurry everywhere, living on the leavings of the lords, chittering to one another, whispering in the ears of their masters. But who are the masters and who are the servants, truly? Every great lord has his maester, every lesser lord aspires to one. If you do not have a maester, it is taken to mean that you are of little consequence. The grey rats read and write our letters, even for such lords as cannot read themselves, and who can say for a certainty that they are not twisting the words for their own ends?

Plausible, no?

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He might want to disposess the Caswells even if he can't inherit himself. I'm sure there are plenty of landless members of the GC who'd be happy to claim the spoils.

No doubt, which brings us to the original problem of foreign sellswords lording over a refugee camp

1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Would really religious people refrain from killing someone they regard as an antipope?

But they didn't think that. That was Roberts Septon, he seemed nice enough, was there when stuff was going relatively smoothly. Anyway the sparrow movement started during Tommens reign in the country not Joffs in fleabottom 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 4/10/2020 at 9:27 PM, Lord Varys said:

She named the castellan of Casterly Rock (her cousin Damion) and the new Warden of the West (her other cousin Daven). These are her people, not Kevan's

She also named Aurane Waters as Master of Ships, Orton Merryweather as Master of Laws and Harys Swyft as Master of Coin. The first stole the dromonds she built for him, the second abandoned her and King's Landing, and the third joined with Pycelle to put Kevan in charge. She's not good at filling positions, and people jump ship as it becomes obvious she's sinking through her own incompetence.

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if he were occupied with ruling the Realm as regent he couldn't do things in the West where Cersei would be in our scenario

If he were ruling the realm as regent, then he'd have power over her.

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Kevan is an able administrator but he is a follower, not a ruler or lord.

Who was he following after Tywin died? Pycelle and Harys Swyft?

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Because he is a person who is going to talk to people other than his regents?

Like who? Everyone in power knows how awful Cersei was, nobody near him will be going on about she was wrongly punished and stripped of the regency. He's married to a woman who absolutely hates Cersei, and with good reason.

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Reread the section in AFfC - the High Septon arrests the queen and only then asks for permission. That is something the people in power won't forget.

Jefferson didn't forget either, he just didn't have a reason to do anything about it. Jackson outright defied SCOTUS, but by then their authority was more firmly in place.

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It would depend on the outcome. And the plan of the Faith is to convict Margaery anyway. They did not take Osney's confession as evidence that Margaery is innocent.

It's evidence (which is why Cersei was arrested), but not proof. The trial will be to decide if Osney was lying then or now. If there is to be a trial, the Tyrells will do their best to support Osney's later confession, thereby damning Cersei. Convicting Cersei, and having the Tyrells be participants in a trial which sets a precedent that the Faith can judge even royalty, will suit the High Sparrow just fine. It's not like he has some other potential Queen he wants Tommen married to.

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Oh, I know that quote and it does indeed confirm that Kevan and the High Septon worked together to force Cersei to do the walk ... but it does not prove it was Kevan's idea or something he even came up with.

How many other times has that punishment been done? Tytos' mistress is the only comparable one, which is quite a coincidence. And in case you bring up Mysaria, she was whipped to death, which is another story.

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Relations are very chilly between the Tyrells and Lannisters.

Chilly, yes, but not outright hostility. The reason Varys killed Pycelle and Kevan is that they were repairing the damage to the alliance.

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The idea is that he helped them along once the movement started

What did he do to help them? We know Varys acted to create a divide between the Lannisters and Tyrells, but we don't know of him doing anything to cause problems with the Faith (other than killing people who would have done a better job dealing with them).

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just as he had prepared things for a Targaryen restoration in the city for years

He's been making plans for years, but had no way of arranging a High Septon of his choice would be in office. If Cersei hadn't killed Tyrion's choice, he'd still be up top.

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The point of bringing in an independent lowborn High Septon is to create a split between King Tommen and the Faith

King Tommen is a child who doesn't really participate in politics, instead he has regents acting on his behalf. And Cersei's incompetence got her arrested by the Faith and thus removed as regent. The Faith haven't made a move against the other regents, and they legitimized Tommen himself as king.

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Sure, and one can also ask how it is that those people dared doing something like that. Weren't they afraid that the Iron Throne would do something about this?

The whole point of the book is that the war has left the realm chaotic. The radicalization of the sparrows is part of that.

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For somebody like Varys this certainly could be a predictable event

Even if one granted the he was behind the death of the fat High Septon in the riot, we know Cersei wsa responsible for the death of his successor. Varys couldn't have known there would be an opening.

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When he has already taken KL he is no longer going to need the High Septon and the sparrows. Aegon needs their support before he has won the Iron Throne, not afterwards

It's more important before than afterwards, but not unimportant later. There was a Moon of Three Kings in KL during the Dance, but Aegon II was able to return and crush them.

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Attacking monasteries and nunneries is hardly a surprise in a medieval war. They were everywhere and rich as hell, so where do you get spoils when not by sacking those places?

There are plenty of places one can sack other than monasteries/nunneries, but castles are better defended precisely because they're expected targets. And the point is that nominal Catholics were willing to attack churches in as literal a manner as it gets, even if this wasn't the norm.

On 4/10/2020 at 9:54 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Do you think the Mage was flat out lying?

He's flat-out wrong about Aemon, which we know because Aemon himself explained how he wound up at the Wall. And his own argument is incoherent, since he puts himself into the same bucket as Aemon, even though  he's attained precisely the status he notes was denied Aemon.

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Targ blood, dragons

We do have some evidence on those things. Targ blood likely is magical and tied to dragons, but the dragons were killed by other dragons and a rampaging mob, not some maester's poison. Orwyle doesn't come across as any kind of master plotter, and Pycelle is the most transparent conspirator in the series. It wasn't the maesters who fuelled the self-destructive Targaryen fixation on wildfire either. Skepticism of magic just makes maesters less capable of dealing with it.

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Sam was about to die

Yeah, I don't believe that. Aemon and Marwyn weren't killed, and Aemon didn't even warn Sam to keep anything a secret from other maesters.

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Plausible, no?

A maester could get away with more under an illiterate lord, but we haven't seen as many of them. As for whether I find Barbary Ryswell to be reliable, my answer is no.

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That was Roberts Septon

I mentioned Robert getting denounced by that street preacher.

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was there when stuff was going relatively smoothly

Things stopped going smoothly, and it became harder to be a fat High Septon.

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Anyway the sparrow movement started during Tommens reign in the country not Joffs in fleabottom

There is clear continuity between the mob anger we see in Clash of Kings through to Feast for Crows. The smallfolk are aggrieved, and they blame their rulers in religious terminology.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

She also named Aurane Waters as Master of Ships, Orton Merryweather as Master of Laws and Harys Swyft as Master of Coin. The first stole the dromonds she built for him, the second abandoned her and King's Landing, and the third joined with Pycelle to put Kevan in charge. She's not good at filling positions, and people jump ship as it becomes obvious she's sinking through her own incompetence.

This has nothing to do with anything. Those are ambitious schemers, the people in the West are her family. You are grasping at straws here, making a case that doesn't really exist and discussing something that isn't relevant to question at hand.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If he were ruling the realm as regent, then he'd have power over her.

The regent rules the Realm instead of the king, he does not rule instead of the king's lords - and definitely not in place of the Lady of Casterly Rock.

There is a key scene in AFfC that foreshadows Cersei (and perhaps also Tommen's future, if he is to survive his downfall - which isn't very likely but still a possibility; he'll die eventually but it doesn't have to be quick) and that is a scene we only hear about and never see. It is Jaime recalling how Cersei looked and how she and Tommen were cheered by the Westermen when they left for the West. This tells us that the Lannisters are far from done yet. They love their little king and they worship the golden-haired Lady of Casterly Rock who rules in his name.

Women don't have many cards in this world, but if beautiful women are in danger, if they need the protection and the help of their loyal bannermen and retainers then this is going to trigger a most powerful response. And this is the kind of posture many a queen in peril has used throughout history, from Empress Matilda to Maria-Theresia.

If Cersei were forced to count on the help of her leal Westermen to avenge herself on Kevan and the High Septon and the Tyrells (rather than, as it will turn out to be, on the High Septon and the Tyrells and Aegon) then she would be able to accomplish that.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Like who? Everyone in power knows how awful Cersei was, nobody near him will be going on about she was wrongly punished and stripped of the regency. He's married to a woman who absolutely hates Cersei, and with good reason.

A king doesn't just talk to the goons on his council, he talks to his servants, his fools, his food taster, his men-at-arms, his grooms, his peasants, etc. The idea that Tommen would be brainwashed by his government is just silly, to be honest.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Jefferson didn't forget either, he just didn't have a reason to do anything about it. Jackson outright defied SCOTUS, but by then their authority was more firmly in place.

This isn't the USA, this is a medieval monarchy where people do not like it when their authority is challenged. Tarly wants to crush the Faith, too. If he were to feed that idea to Tommen the boy certainly could and would listen. He sits on the boy king's council and Kevan would not get rid of him if he had lived.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's evidence (which is why Cersei was arrested), but not proof. The trial will be to decide if Osney was lying then or now. If there is to be a trial, the Tyrells will do their best to support Osney's later confession, thereby damning Cersei. Convicting Cersei, and having the Tyrells be participants in a trial which sets a precedent that the Faith can judge even royalty, will suit the High Sparrow just fine. It's not like he has some other potential Queen he wants Tommen married to.

The Blue Bard is still singing Qyburn's song. Margaery isn't off the hook yet. Even if she got off the hook her honor will be permanently marred by this thing, something that will cast a permanent shadow on Tommen and her reign, even if they lived to the age of eighty. It is not difficult to imagine that they would want to punish the Faith for doing this to Margaery even if they would completely ignore the Cersei incident.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How many other times has that punishment been done? Tytos' mistress is the only comparable one, which is quite a coincidence. And in case you bring up Mysaria, she was whipped to death, which is another story.

Aerys II himself voluntarily submitted himself to a walk of penance after he had a mad lapse after the death of his son Jaehaerys. You are mistaken when you interpret the walk as legal punishment. It is an atonement for Cersei's sins. Something she, in the end, chose for herself. Of course it was a condition that she would be returned to the Red Keep, but it isn't a legal punishment but rather a spiritual cleansing exercise.

Tytos' mistress is treated similarly and differently at the same time. In her case this is punishment done by Lord Tywin. This isn't the case for Cersei.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Chilly, yes, but not outright hostility. The reason Varys killed Pycelle and Kevan is that they were repairing the damage to the alliance.

No open hostility/fighting yet, but they get about along as well as the Starks and Lannisters in AGoT. Keep in mind that Swyft and Pycelle both fear that Mace might murder them. They no longer trust each other. Even Kevan does fear Mace and his ambitions.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What did he do to help them? We know Varys acted to create a divide between the Lannisters and Tyrells, but we don't know of him doing anything to cause problems with the Faith (other than killing people who would have done a better job dealing with them).

The reason why Varys murders the two guys is because Aegon is there now, and he has to ensure they do not act together. If Aegon and Dany had come in 1-2 years he could have counted on Mace and Kevan fucking things up. They would have done his work for him with a little help from him here and there.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He's been making plans for years, but had no way of arranging a High Septon of his choice would be in office. If Cersei hadn't killed Tyrion's choice, he'd still be up top.

The man can adapt his plans. And Tyrion's High Septon was a rather old man, anyway.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

King Tommen is a child who doesn't really participate in politics, instead he has regents acting on his behalf. And Cersei's incompetence got her arrested by the Faith and thus removed as regent. The Faith haven't made a move against the other regents, and they legitimized Tommen himself as king.

There was only one regent, the Queen Regent, who is, in the end, actually as invioble as the king's person himself (as is laid out when Corwyn Corbray, regent of a different king, is slain at Runestone, and this is interpreted as an attack on the king himself).

It just makes no sense to dismiss this. And I'm not sure why we should continue to argue this stuff when it is in fact irrelevant how things are. The important thing is how things might be perceived and what people might fear.

I argue that the High Septon would be stupid to expect King Tommen would remain his leal friend if he ever figured out/realized/came to the conclusion that the Faith treated his mother and wife in an improper and unpleasant manner, possibly even leading to their deaths/disgrace.

If another opportunity presents itself - or if the High Septon was told that this might be the case in the near future - then this could help explain his actions.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Even if one granted the he was behind the death of the fat High Septon in the riot, we know Cersei wsa responsible for the death of his successor. Varys couldn't have known there would be an opening.

See above. I could also add that the sparrow movement could also put pressure on the old High Septon to side with Aegon rather than Tommen once the Targaryens showed up.

29 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

There are plenty of places one can sack other than monasteries/nunneries, but castles are better defended precisely because they're expected targets. And the point is that nominal Catholics were willing to attack churches in as literal a manner as it gets, even if this wasn't the norm.

Well, my hometown used to attack and sack the monastery in the next over border disputes and the like in the 14th century. This kind of thing wasn't exactly uncommon.

[Hugorfonics]

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He's flat-out wrong about Aemon, which we know because Aemon himself explained how he wound up at the Wall.

But if we follow the Mages train of thought then Aemon the maester is not to be trusted either.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

And his own argument is incoherent, since he puts himself into the same bucket as Aemon, even though  he's attained precisely the status he notes was denied Aemon.

Thats true, Mage is maester after all. Still, he says hes got different goals. No time for playing in the shadows, Sam says the worlds ending, glass candles are burning, yada yada yada.

And hes not in the same bucket as Aemon, Marwyns not Targaryen

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We do have some evidence on those things. Targ blood likely is magical and tied to dragons, but the dragons were killed by other dragons and a rampaging mob, not some maester's poison. Orwyle doesn't come across as any kind of master plotter,

Dragons killing dragons, no doubt. That mob, I mean I dont doubt the mob, but that crazy preacher dude (with no record of) in the middle of, I doubt. Mob could have been instigated by maesters

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

, and Pycelle is the most transparent conspirator in the series.

Because he was always lying

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Yeah, I don't believe that. Aemon and Marwyn weren't killed, and Aemon didn't even warn Sam to keep anything a secret from other maesters.

Yea thats weird. He was really out there at the end

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

As for whether I find Barbary Ryswell to be reliable, my answer is no.

Because shes mean?

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I mentioned Robert getting denounced by that street preacher.

Sure, one crazy dude said some crazy shit once to a decently sized crowd. But at the riots, we heard lots of "Stannis" and "Renly", Roberts own brothers. The fleabottom folk liked him. 

Its like what Tyrion was told, they mainly blame him. The Spider, Cersei, LF, they were there for the relatively good times under Robert

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Things stopped going smoothly, and it became harder to be a fat High Septon.

It became harder to be Kingsguard, and hand, and queen, and Sansa, and all those other pompous assholes.

The representative of god didnt matter at all, just like the power of the crown, or the traitors daughter of this angering regime.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

There is clear continuity between the mob anger we see in Clash of Kings through to Feast for Crows. 

No theres not.

In clash the riots were about Bread, not Joff Stannis or Sansa. This was because Mace Tyrell cut off major supply lines from KL.

In feast the smallfolk threw a parade for Margery because her father reopened KL supply 

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The smallfolk are aggrieved, and they blame their rulers in religious terminology.

Some do. A minor portion of the population. Mostly refugees (riverlands, perhaps some in the west as well) and many wound up in KL, because that's the place to be