Aegon as a king

TedBear · June 7, 2020

I think his future is to be a maneuver for Varys or Arianne and he will not ride a dragon

Aldarion · June 7, 2020

3 hours ago, Morte said:

Actually - and that's, again, one on Martin - they aren't. There are towns around the castles, but they aren't even "proper" small towns like Maidenpool, but more villages outside the castles walls and with no walls themselves (as you said). In the real Middle Ages of course municipal rights were not reserved for big cities, we have a whole bunch of small towns with municipal rights shattered across Europe - but in Martin's world we don't even seem to have a full concept on municipal rights...

I know about Winterfell's Winter Town, but do we see other castles? Other than Riverrun, I mean, and lack of town there could be explained by River Lords not really having any real authority to begin with...

But yeah, towns and cities were extremely important in 14th - 15th century Europe, yet Martin treats them largely as non-entities... in Westeros, if you are not a feudal lord, you don't matter - which is BS.

3 hours ago, Morte said:

Well... why do we all think that this Dance has to have a similar (even if reversed) outcome as the first Dance? What if in this Dance the parties would decide to get their shit together because of the real threat in the end?

That is what I would consider an ideal outcome, but Martin does have theme of history repeating itself...

4 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Well... why do we all think that this Dance has to have a similar (even if reversed) outcome as the first Dance? What if in this Dance the parties would decide to get their shit together because of the real threat in the end?

It could go either way. It is actually entirely possible that Martin will go "no good king, period" route, and Aegon and Daenerys will both prove a failure.

4 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Wait, so now he doesn't need to bring peace??? Okay, let's go your new criteria... he's going to have to do at least a little battle* to take KL from Cersei. More deaths and disruption isn't an improvement.

Modern elections are even more irrelevant than irl history. I get you're making some sort of point about selection processes, but the people's considerations are completely different for modern elections and for Westeros. Legitimacy is a huge factor. This is why Robert got to be King instead of Jon Arryn or Tywin or anyone else. If novelty and promising improvement was all that mattered, literally anyone could be a king or a lord.

*he would have already done this to take Storm's End, so he's actually already broken peace.

This is what I replied to what you asked:

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Wait, so now he doesn't need to bring peace??? Okay, let's go your new criteria... he's going to have to do at least a little battle* to take KL from Cersei. More deaths and disruption isn't an improvement.

Modern elections are even more irrelevant than irl history. I get you're making some sort of point about selection processes, but the people's considerations are completely different for modern elections and for Westeros. Legitimacy is a huge factor. This is why Robert got to be King instead of Jon Arryn or Tywin or anyone else. If novelty and promising improvement was all that mattered, literally anyone could be a king or a lord.

*he would have already done this to take Storm's End, so he's actually already broken peace.

This is what I wrote in a post you quoted:

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And he doesn't need to bring peace as such. He only needs to be an improvement over existing situation. Fact is, he is someone new. That alone will be enough to bring him many supporters. Just take a look at how elections work in modern-day "democracies" - you have two parties (with absolutely no difference between them), and once people get fed up with one, all that is needed is switching figurehead and they get voters back. Aegon is a new face, and thus can count on support which many of existing lords will not be able to mobilize.

Basically, he needs to make things more peaceful than they are - but there is no need for him to bring outright peace. And frankly, at this point, bringing peace to Westeros would be possible only by murdering everybody alive there...

And yes, legitimacy matters. That is why Aegon is posing as Rhaegar's son. But as long as he is good enough, most lords will be rather willing to turn a blind eye to any holes in the story.

Hodor the Articulate · June 7, 2020

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Basically, he needs to make things more peaceful than they are - but there is no need for him to bring outright peace. And frankly, at this point, bringing peace to Westeros would be possible only by murdering everybody alive there...

Making war will certainly make Westeros more peaceful!

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And yes, legitimacy matters. That is why Aegon is posing as Rhaegar's son. But as long as he is good enough, most lords will be rather willing to turn a blind eye to any holes in the story.

So you keep saying, but you've yet to provide any textual evidence that most lords will (a) think he's good enough and (b) enthusiastically turn a blind eye to his lack legitimacy, even though this sets a dangerous precedent for them and their heirs.

You also have to take into account the strength of the relationship between the crown and the lords that this situation produces. If the lords are so fickle that they'd turn on their legit sitting monarch for some kid with a crazy story, just because they want more peace than the existing peace, it goes to reason they can do the same to Aegon. Who's to say they don't think Dany will make his peace even more peaceful? She brought back dragons and abolished slavery after all... maybe she'll create another miracle and bring to Westeros an everlasting peace where everyone farts rainbows.

Aldarion · June 7, 2020

11 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Making war will certainly make Westeros more peaceful!

The Others are the only option for peace in Westeros. You can't have war if everybody is dead.

12 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

So you keep saying, but you've yet to provide any textual evidence that most lords will (a) think he's good enough and (b) enthusiastically turn a blind eye to his lack legitimacy, even though this sets a dangerous precedent for them and their heirs.

You also have to take into account the strength of the relationship between the crown and the lords that this situation produces. If the lords are so fickle that they'd turn on their legit sitting monarch for some kid with a crazy story, just because they want more peace than the existing peace, it goes to reason they can do the same to Aegon. Who's to say they don't think Dany will make his peace even more peaceful? She brought back dragons and abolished slavery after all... maybe she'll create another miracle and bring to Westeros an everlasting peace where everyone farts rainbows.

Everything you have listed has already happened. Tyrells have turned on their legitimate sitting monarch in favour of some kid with... no legitimate claim to the throne and no story at all (Renly). They only joined Lannisters for revenge after Renly got shadowbabied. Before that, you got First Blackfyre Rebellion, which was the same situation - and that one (unlike later ones) nearly succeeded. Actual legitimacy is much less important in Westeros than you believe.

Dany went around Essos overthrowing established order, and she has dragons which means that she will be much harder to oppose. No lord worth his salt will support her unless they feel that dragons are an advantage which is impossible to overcome - but that depends on Daenerys actually controlling all three dragons and no dragonnapping happening.

Agnessa Schizoid · June 7, 2020

I am sure Aegon will be another Martin's example that Best laid plans of mice and men (gang aft a-gley, which WTF)))). You can no more create ideal (or anywhere near ideal) king purposefully than you can fulfill prophecy by checking off requirements. It either happens orgаnicаlly or not аt аll. There are too many variables to predict them all. Bet we'll be shown it.

Even Doran's best laid plans, as sympathetic as they are (he has good reason for revenge & put it off out of noble considerations) will end up in chaos via our merciless author. If Varys truly hopes to bring prosperity to Westeros by throwing it into horrible civil wаr and then brining his own creature to rule, his plans are even less likely to result in much good.

Don't think Aegon will be another monster, hope not, its' getting old, too many absolute monstrosities already in series lauded for psychological realism, but his personality problems which already demonstrated themselves a bit (in this series such signs rarely lead to nothing, but usually portain trouble to come) will play their role together with difficult circumstances he'll be put in.

Lord Varys · June 7, 2020

12 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Ironborn are Vikings. And if Euron thinks large, he will end up destroying his forces.

The only way Doran and Trystane could be killed by Euron is if they were to go to Water Gardens. Sunspear may be devastated by Ironborn, but castle - if properly manned - should be more or less impregnable.

Trial-and-error way is the worst way of learning things. Yeah, it is rather unlikely Aegon will be prepared to deal with that sort of stuff. But neither will Daenerys - while she does have valuable experience, that experience is from a completely different society and different context. Some of it will be useful, some of it will be useless, and some of it will be outright disadvantageous and will lead her down the wrong path.

The Ironborn are based on the vikings, but they are hardly identical. And if you read the books, you know Euron Greyjoy doesn't give shit about his forces. He is using and discarding the Ironborn as he sees fit. He doesn't set up them to rule or conquer anything, he sets himself as the ruler of Westeros. And he certainly could accomplish that goal by using the corpses of his people as stepping stones - they don't really understand him or the way he thinks.

I'm not imagining a siege of Sunspear, just a sudden attack with sufficient weaponry to break open the gates and sack and loot the place. The Ironborn know how to crack open castles, they did so on the Shield Islands.

Sunspear isn't a city, it is just a castle, and shadow city can be easily burned down considering it is completely defenseless.

Of course, that's not going to go with out some losses, but who cares? Ironborn are fierce fighters.

Dany will know how to deal with and manage people in power, Aegon will learn that people do whatever he says, and that whatever he says is going to be a great idea ... until it isn't. And then he will fail. The idea that managing Ghiscari and Dothraki and former slaves will be different from dealing with some Westerosi doesn't really convince me - especially not since Daenerys is not that unfamiliar with Westerosi culture herself.

12 hours ago, Aldarion said:

The only hope for peace and prosperity would likely be if Aegon and Daenerys worked together... and also had some half-dozen reliable advisors.

Daenerys doesn't really need Aegon for anything. He may need her, but she doesn't need him.

12 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And he doesn't need to bring peace as such. He only needs to be an improvement over existing situation. Fact is, he is someone new. That alone will be enough to bring him many supporters. Just take a look at how elections work in modern-day "democracies" - you have two parties (with absolutely no difference between them), and once people get fed up with one, all that is needed is switching figurehead and they get voters back. Aegon is a new face, and thus can count on support which many of existing lords will not be able to mobilize.

He is not going to improve anything. He will bring war to regions of Westeros which were, up to this point, pretty peaceful - he has already started with the Stormlands, and that will continue. His shenanigans might bring the Vale into the game, too, and if the Prince's Pass army is going to invade the Reach then Aegon will also help bleed out that region some more.

Aegon certainly will get a lot of supporters at first, but that's going to change not just when the real Targaryen shows up - the one with the dragons and the actual muscle, not the one with the bunch of foreign sellswords and opportunistic lords - but also when his government is going to turn out to be completely incapable to unify the Realm, deal with the many pretenders/rebels in the field, or resolve any of the current problems the people just have - much less those he and his cronies are going to cause.

He is going to be a fantasy/dream image of things getting better ... but the love of the people is a fickle thing, as this stories show again and again, and the people will even be more fickle now that they had to endure so much chaos and misrule already. They won't have the patience to allow to first learn how to rule properly. And he is never going to have a strong power base of loyal supporters. The Golden Company are sellswords. They won't die for him if the tide turns against him. If he were to marry Arianne he might get a decent portion of the Dornishmen on his side, but we know how fickles they are from Robert's Rebellion. Doran gave Aerys II just 10,000 men. Aegon might be able to gain all of Doran's 20,000 now, but it is not likely the Martells would rise another army for the lad, especially not if the tide turned against him and they knew they were betting on a dead horse.

All other people siding with Aegon will be opportunists - and those among them who are Targaryen loyalists could very easily decide they are going to defect to the real dragon with the dragons now, not the fake one whose elephants are long dead.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

Oh, I would take Loras as a regular POV anytime! As you said: we don't have a Tyrell POV, and Loras would be a good choice, because he most likely didn't know about the Purple-Wedding-plot, so he would not fall into the "knows too much"-category out of which we don't get POVs.

Yeah, although Margaery could work pretty well, too, I guess.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

I think where Dany will land depends heavily on when she will land; if Martin doesn't butcher the Essos-plotlines, she might come to Westeros with KL and the Bay either being hold by Euron and his fleet (a possibility which would make her land somewhere else, as you said), or maybe even the city being reduced to smouldering ruins already.

Yeah, the way I try to imagine this Second Dance plot right now is that Dany must land either before the Wall has fallen already, or at least before the guys down in the south have learned about that. Because no matter how one wants to spin it, I cannot see Dany and Aegon fighting each other if both knew that the Others are about to kill both of them. Neither of them will be that stupid. And Dany will of course go to Westeros not with a burning desire of conquest and stuff, but to help those people and fulfill her destiny because Marwyn is going to tell her about the Others.

If things were so that Dany for some reason couldn't land at KL I doubt that this would mean she could get to Dragonstone with her ships. Because a naval blockade/defense of Blackwater Bay against Dany's armada would likely include that this party also control Dragonstone and Driftmark.

But of course she will have a dragon so she can fly to any place he wants to go. She will be pretty mobile if choose to take a look around.

Overall, I expect Dany and Euron to clash first in the Stepstones, with Euron commanding a powerful fleet made up of his own Ironborn, the pirates from the Stepstones including Aurane Waters and Salladhor Saan, and a decent portion of the naval strength of Lys, Tyrosh, and Myr. Dany's anti-slavery policy is threatening their way of life, and while the Dothraki could take Myr on the mainland, Tyrosh and Lys would have to be taken by fleets, meaning they especially would have the ability to prepare for a preemptive strike.

If Dany loses many people there then her landing might get more complicated (although not insofar as fleets she might dispatch from Pentos are concerned).

10 hours ago, Morte said:

On the other hand she and her advisers might go for taking the strategical position first, which would make Saltpens/Harrenhall plausible as a first target (beside visiting Dragonstone, but we all in this thread agree, that Dragonstone makes no fitting headquarters for any army, even less so for one as big as Dany's). But no matter where Dany starts in Westeros, I'm quite sure Harrenhall will become her armies headquarters.

I'm sure somebody is going to set up camp there, especially when they are assembling forces for the war against the Others. The Isle of Faces is nearby, and George has long ago said that the Green Men are going to show themselves eventually.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

And if Dany really comes late to the party, I think her main focus will lie with the Others. She will be aware of Aegon and will still have the Throne as a secondary focus, but with the people potentially ending on her side and her own Dragon Dreams, she might go on route with the "Stannis approach" - that the Throne can wait while humanity is at grave danger.

I'd imagine that she and Aegon (and Euron/Cersei) are going to clash before they unite, but I expect that Second Dance to end with some kind of Great Council thingy where they agree to compromise insofar as who is going to rule. And since I don't believe for a second we are going to have petty conflicts about who is going to rule after the Others are dealt with, the question who takes precedence/sits the throne has to be resolved before that - at least where 'the good guys' (i.e. those who unite to fight the Others) are concerned.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

Oh, and I don't think Dany will take only Pentos, I think she must go to Volantis, if Martin wants to see her leaving Essos in trusting hands, as it seems to me that the anti-slavery-movement there is the only truly organized (beside Bravos).

She certainly is going to Volantis, too, but there she might have to do pretty much nothing because the Widow of the Waterfront and Benerro will do things for her. Perhaps the dragons might be needed to breach the Black Wall, but larger Volantis is likely going to be in the hands of the former slaves by the time Dany shows up. The other cities, though - Qohor, Norvos, Myr, Lys, Tyrosh, and Pentos are likely going to need 'outside encouragement' to change their ways. And the Dothraki are going to want their spoils.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

I don't think Aegon will set foot on the isle, I think he will be too occupied with the mainland and content with getting a raven telling him that Dragonstone is his, thinking that visiting Dragonstone can wait till his enemies are crushed (which will of course be a mistake).

Could also be, but I actually expect there to be some brief time of celebration for him when he is cheered and such, and perhaps he might go to the island himself. But I'd not be surprised if he didn't do that.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

Actually - and that's, again, one on Martin - they aren't. There are towns around the castles, but they aren't even "proper" small towns like Maidenpool, but more villages outside the castles walls and with no walls themselves (as you said). In the real Middle Ages of course municipal rights were not reserved for big cities, we have a whole bunch of small towns with municipal rights shattered across Europe - but in Martin's world we don't even seem to have a full concept on municipal rights...

The most glaring nonsense in this regard is the fact that Highgarden is actually to be just a castle in the middle of nowhere. I so hope that TWoW is going to establish that it is surrounded by a circle of big market towns we haven't heard anything about so far, but if that doesn't happen it is the least believable place in all of Westeros.

But then, the Arryns also have no town around their effective capital, the Gates of the Moon, so apparently kings and great lords just live in castles in the middle of nowhere and rules vast realms from there. Pretty realistic.

I was pleasantly suprised by the depiction of both Tumbleton and Bitterbridge in FaB, though. Those are pretty big medieval towns, accounting for small cities, and that kind of thing should be standard for how things are in the Reach.

10 hours ago, Morte said:

Well... why do we all think that this Dance has to have a similar (even if reversed) outcome as the first Dance? What if in this Dance the parties would decide to get their shit together because of the real threat in the end?

Yeah, that is not that unlikely at all.

Hodor the Articulate · June 8, 2020

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

The Others are the only option for peace in Westeros. You can't have war if everybody is dead.

Which is why simply "bringing peace" is too vague to show whether a character is a competent ruler or not.

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Everything you have listed has already happened. Tyrells have turned on their legitimate sitting monarch in favour of some kid with... no legitimate claim to the throne and no story at all (Renly). They only joined Lannisters for revenge after Renly got shadowbabied. Before that, you got First Blackfyre Rebellion, which was the same situation - and that one (unlike later ones) nearly succeeded. Actual legitimacy is much less important in Westeros than you believe.

Renly did have a claim; he was 5th in line. Daemon Blackfyre also had a claim as he was 2nd in line and had his father's sword as "proof" he was Aegon's preferred heir. Young Griff technically also has a claim, but it's a tenuous one because it rests entirely on a bullshit sounding story. Again, this is why the plan was to marry him to Dany. Legitimacy is incredibly important because this is what the whole system is based on. Without that, anybody could be lord or king.

Note that the former were also well known figures and had fostered strong relationships with other lords by the time they pressed their claims. Even then, Daemon's supporters were reluctant throw in with him fully. Aegon has less than that and will have to rely greatly on the Martells (in particular, Arianne's impatience and thirst for vengeance) for not just legitimacy, but also alliance building. Unfortunately for him, the Martells don't seem that well connected outside of Dorne, and are actually enemies of Mace Tyrell.

Anyway, this doesn't answer my request that you prove most lords will (a) think he's good enough (b) enthusiastically turn a blind eye to his lack legitimacy, even though this sets a dangerous precedent for them and their heirs, and I suppose we should add (c) not abandon him the moment Dany shows up with her dragons.

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Dany went around Essos overthrowing established order, and she has dragons which means that she will be much harder to oppose. No lord worth his salt will support her unless they feel that dragons are an advantage which is impossible to overcome - but that depends on Daenerys actually controlling all three dragons and no dragonnapping happening.

You just made a case for why lords might not want to oppose her.

Morte · June 8, 2020

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, although Margaery could work pretty well, too, I guess.

Yes, but she might know too much. Personally I would find Loras' head more interesting, but that's just my preference.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, the way I try to imagine this Second Dance plot right now is that Dany must land either before the Wall has fallen already, or at least before the guys down in the south have learned about that. Because no matter how one wants to spin it, I cannot see Dany and Aegon fighting each other if both knew that the Others are about to kill both of them. Neither of them will be that stupid. And Dany will of course go to Westeros not with a burning desire of conquest and stuff, but to help those people and fulfill her destiny because Marwyn is going to tell her about the Others.

Exactly. And I think Dany will know of the fall of the Wall before the news spreads though Westeros, because Marwyn and Quaite will see it in the candles and contrary to the candle-users in the South would not have to face the problem of being seen as nut-heads.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If things were so that Dany for some reason couldn't land at KL I doubt that this would mean she could get to Dragonstone with her ships. Because a naval blockade/defense of Blackwater Bay against Dany's armada would likely include that this party also control Dragonstone and Driftmark.

Or at least block it, yes. The Saltpens would be a even more likely in this scenario. But as you said, Dany can drop in on dragon's back for a short visit.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Dany loses many people there then her landing might get more complicated

Yes, although I see her land with the majority (not all, but a majority) of her troops still intact, as they will need every single man for the battle against the Others and Westeros will be spend by then.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd imagine that she and Aegon (and Euron/Cersei) are going to clash before they unite, but I expect that Second Dance to end with some kind of Great Council thingy where they agree to compromise insofar as who is going to rule. And since I don't believe for a second we are going to have petty conflicts about who is going to rule after the Others are dealt with, the question who takes precedence/sits the throne has to be resolved before that - at least where 'the good guys' (i.e. those who unite to fight the Others) are concerned.

Agree. And anybody who did not help in the fight will be done after this, having no position left to argue and negotiate, as standing by while everybody was working on defending the world will be seen as a crime against gods and men alike.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The most glaring nonsense in this regard is the fact that Highgarden is actually to be just a castle in the middle of nowhere. I so hope that TWoW is going to establish that it is surrounded by a circle of big market towns we haven't heard anything about so far, but if that doesn't happen it is the least believable place in all of Westeros.

But then, the Arryns also have no town around their effective capital, the Gates of the Moon, so apparently kings and great lords just live in castles in the middle of nowhere and rules vast realms from there. Pretty realistic.

I think under-developing the world at the beginning and essentially till AFoC is biting Martin in the ass now, and he can't and/or doesn't want to retcon the regions he had described as early as AGoT and ACoK (North, Vale, Iron Isles and the Riverlands - some of this is not even "retconnable", because it would make parts the major plot implode), so they will seem even more unrealistic when he writes FaB II and the remaining books of the main series, as I do hope that he will use the "emptiness" of the Reach and the West to fill them with towns and villages.

Highgarden, with it's vast gardens and fields, lying alone and abandoned in the middle of nowhere would be a joke for the number of hands and infrastructure you need to tend to such a "castle" alone.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I was pleasantly suprised by the depiction of both Tumbleton and Bitterbridge in FaB, though. Those are pretty big medieval towns, accounting for small cities, and that kind of thing should be standard for how things are in the Reach.

Just like that. And I think we will see more of this; as I also think he will elaborate much more on the situation and thinking of the small-folk when he gets to Egg's reign in FaB II (if it will go that far).

Aldarion · June 8, 2020

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Renly did have a claim; he was 5th in line. Daemon Blackfyre also had a claim as he was 2nd in line and had his father's sword as "proof" he was Aegon's preferred heir. Young Griff technically also has a claim, but it's a tenuous one because it rests entirely on a bullshit sounding story. Again, this is why the plan was to marry him to Dany. Legitimacy is incredibly important because this is what the whole system is based on. Without that, anybody could be lord or king.

Renly had no right to claim the throne for as long as Stannis was alive; or if he didn't believe Stannis' story, for as long as Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella (??) and Stannis were alive. He was in line for succession, but as long as there were people ahead of him, he was a pretender.

And if Young Griff is a Blackfyre, he does have a claim - it is just behind Daenerys. So kinda like Renly. It is just that in that case, he would have no right to claim the throne for as long as Daenerys is alive.

4 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Note that the former were also well known figures and had fostered strong relationships with other lords by the time they pressed their claims. Even then, Daemon's supporters were reluctant throw in with him fully. Aegon has less than that and will have to rely greatly on the Martells (in particular, Arianne's impatience and thirst for vengeance) for not just legitimacy, but also alliance building. Unfortunately for him, the Martells don't seem that well connected outside of Dorne, and are actually enemies of Mace Tyrell.

Anyway, this doesn't answer my request that you prove most lords will (a) think he's good enough (b) enthusiastically turn a blind eye to his lack legitimacy, even though this sets a dangerous precedent for them and their heirs, and I suppose we should add (c) not abandon him the moment Dany shows up with her dragons.

1) When Daemon pressed his claim, he had to contend with Daeron, who was a) a Targaryen, and b) while of uncertain parentage, many naturally doubted rumours about it. Aegon will not be pressing his claim against Daenerys (at least initially), but against Lannisters, who by now had thoroughly discredited themselves.

2) As I noted in point above, during First Blackfyre Rebellion, just rumours about Daeron's parentage were enough to give Daemon support of the half of Seven Kingdoms. Why reverse would not work?

3) If Aegon is secured on the throne, many lords will naturally prefer a known element over an unknown one.

4 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

You just made a case for why lords might not want to oppose her.

I did. I also made a case for why lords would want to oppose her. She controls only one dragon, and is in essence a revolutionary. So if anyone at all can snatch a dragon for themselves, many lords will be more than ready to oppose her.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You just made a case for why lords might not want to oppose her.

I do hope that will be what will happen. I actually do like Daenerys, I just don't like a) whole Slaver's bay plot and b) whole idea of a ruler with three dragons. Zero dragons is ideal, but if that is impossible, there should be at least two other riders.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn are based on the vikings, but they are hardly identical. And if you read the books, you know Euron Greyjoy doesn't give shit about his forces. He is using and discarding the Ironborn as he sees fit. He doesn't set up them to rule or conquer anything, he sets himself as the ruler of Westeros. And he certainly could accomplish that goal by using the corpses of his people as stepping stones - they don't really understand him or the way he thinks.

I'm not imagining a siege of Sunspear, just a sudden attack with sufficient weaponry to break open the gates and sack and loot the place. The Ironborn know how to crack open castles, they did so on the Shield Islands.

Sunspear isn't a city, it is just a castle, and shadow city can be easily burned down considering it is completely defenseless.

Of course, that's not going to go with out some losses, but who cares? Ironborn are fierce fighters.

Dany will know how to deal with and manage people in power, Aegon will learn that people do whatever he says, and that whatever he says is going to be a great idea ... until it isn't. And then he will fail. The idea that managing Ghiscari and Dothraki and former slaves will be different from dealing with some Westerosi doesn't really convince me - especially not since Daenerys is not that unfamiliar with Westerosi culture herself.

In other words, Euron is a shit strategist. "Not caring about one's own people" is a great way to lose war due to attrition - and Ironborn simply do not have a pool of manpower which would be required to win by weight of numbers. That being said, attack on Sunspear is indeed possible - but unless castle is completely unguarded, it is likely to fail (such attacks usually did fail, they were just always tried because potential payoff in avoiding the siege was so significant).

And "Sunspear is just a castle" is actually a disadvantage, as castles are more difficult to assault than cities. Unless Euron merely burns the suburbs and leaves.

Daenerys has knowledge of Westerosi culture from Viserys (an idiot), Jorah (a former slaver and overall idiot) and Ser Barristan. Which is not that different from Aegon, truth be told. But difference is in that Daenerys' first experience was in Slaver's Bay, while Aegon's first experience will be King's Landing. Like it or not, she will bring some of Slaver's Bay to Westeros. Essentially, she will have to first forget many if not most of lessons she learned in Slaver's Bay before trying to rule Westeros - and that is always more difficult than just learning new lessons.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ironborn are based on the vikings, but they are hardly identical. And if you read the books, you know Euron Greyjoy doesn't give shit about his forces. He is using and discarding the Ironborn as he sees fit. He doesn't set up them to rule or conquer anything, he sets himself as the ruler of Westeros. And he certainly could accomplish that goal by using the corpses of his people as stepping stones - they don't really understand him or the way he thinks.

I'm not imagining a siege of Sunspear, just a sudden attack with sufficient weaponry to break open the gates and sack and loot the place. The Ironborn know how to crack open castles, they did so on the Shield Islands.

Sunspear isn't a city, it is just a castle, and shadow city can be easily burned down considering it is completely defenseless.

Of course, that's not going to go with out some losses, but who cares? Ironborn are fierce fighters.

Dany will know how to deal with and manage people in power, Aegon will learn that people do whatever he says, and that whatever he says is going to be a great idea ... until it isn't. And then he will fail. The idea that managing Ghiscari and Dothraki and former slaves will be different from dealing with some Westerosi doesn't really convince me - especially not since Daenerys is not that unfamiliar with Westerosi culture herself.

By the time Daenerys comes to Westeros, Aegon will already have significant local support. So while what you wrote may be true right now, it will not be true by the time she comes West. Which is the whole point.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He is not going to improve anything. He will bring war to regions of Westeros which were, up to this point, pretty peaceful - he has already started with the Stormlands, and that will continue. His shenanigans might bring the Vale into the game, too, and if the Prince's Pass army is going to invade the Reach then Aegon will also help bleed out that region some more.

Aegon certainly will get a lot of supporters at first, but that's going to change not just when the real Targaryen shows up - the one with the dragons and the actual muscle, not the one with the bunch of foreign sellswords and opportunistic lords - but also when his government is going to turn out to be completely incapable to unify the Realm, deal with the many pretenders/rebels in the field, or resolve any of the current problems the people just have - much less those he and his cronies are going to cause.

He is going to be a fantasy/dream image of things getting better ... but the love of the people is a fickle thing, as this stories show again and again, and the people will even be more fickle now that they had to endure so much chaos and misrule already. They won't have the patience to allow to first learn how to rule properly. And he is never going to have a strong power base of loyal supporters. The Golden Company are sellswords. They won't die for him if the tide turns against him. If he were to marry Arianne he might get a decent portion of the Dornishmen on his side, but we know how fickles they are from Robert's Rebellion. Doran gave Aerys II just 10,000 men. Aegon might be able to gain all of Doran's 20,000 now, but it is not likely the Martells would rise another army for the lad, especially not if the tide turned against him and they knew they were betting on a dead horse.

All other people siding with Aegon will be opportunists - and those among them who are Targaryen loyalists could very easily decide they are going to defect to the real dragon with the dragons now, not the fake one whose elephants are long dead.

Westeros never was peaceful, and it is not going to be peaceful with Kevan dead and Cersei in power. In fact, Westeros has somewhat-frequent wars (though not that unusual given the size of the continent), and warfare itself is not small-scale; it is more on level of Hungarian-Ottoman and Habsburg-Ottoman wars than anything typical of Western European feudal warfare. And this implies significant destruction of countryside. Just moving an army as large as Robb's or Tywin's is going to cause massive devastation along the way of the march unless they have outright Byzantine system of logistics*, and this is disregarding any additional destruction - purpuseful or not. And between Euron to the West and Stannis to the North, there never was any prospect of peace in Westeros by TWoW, Aegon or no Aegon.

If Aegon is a Blackfyre, then it is not impossible for him to get a dragon at one point. As for the rest of that paragraph, that would make his government no better - but also no worse - than that of Robert Baratheon or Lannisters.

People siding with Daenerys depends on a) her maintaining her dragon-advantage (which is not a given) and b) her being seen as a better option than Aegon (which is partly dependant on a) ). If these two points turn out to not be true, or even only partly true, she will not be able to count on widespread support in Westeros. Aegon getting to Westeros first is an important advantage, and he does appear charismatic enough to capitalize on it (question is only for how long).

* And even Byzantine armies were huge burden to local populace, despite all the measures imperial government took to minimize said burden.

Lucia Targaryen · June 9, 2020

Aegon is not going to be the King of the Seven Kingdoms because all of Westeros is falling apart.

The North is already experiencing the effects of Winter along with the conflict between Stannis and the Boltons about to erupt. The Northern lords have their own plans, ranging from Manderly using Rickon to crowning Jon in accordance with Robb's will.

The Vale has been closed off with Littlefinger hoarding the food and his plan to reclaim the North in Sansa's name.

The Riverlands are in chaos with outlaws and burned fields in every direction.

The Ironborn have declared independence, been successfully raiding along the coast of the Reach and Oldtown is about to be destroyed by Euron.

The Westerlands don't have clear leadership and I suspect that much of the Lannister army in the Riverlands is going to be killed in Lady Stoneheart's Red Wedding 2.0

I think Cersei is going to use Aerys's wildfire to burn down King's Landing so there goes the capital.

At the Wall, there's going to be fighting between those who were loyal to Jon and those who killed him.

Also the Others are probably going to break through the Wall and start the second Long Night.

Honestly, Daenerys (who is currently thousands of miles away and is still dealing with everything in Slavers Bay) is probably the least of Aegon's worries.

Hodor the Articulate · June 9, 2020

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Renly had no right to claim the throne for as long as Stannis was alive; or if he didn't believe Stannis' story, for as long as Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella (??) and Stannis were alive. He was in line for succession, but as long as there were people ahead of him, he was a pretender.

And if Young Griff is a Blackfyre, he does have a claim - it is just behind Daenerys. So kinda like Renly. It is just that in that case, he would have no right to claim the throne for as long as Daenerys is alive.

Anybody with royal blood can have a claim, but the strength of that claim gets weaker further down the line of succession you get. Varys says Aegon has a better claim than Tommen and Myrcella, which is arguably true but it depends on whether enough people believes he is Rhaegar & Elia's son or not.

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

1) When Daemon pressed his claim, he had to contend with Daeron, who was a) a Targaryen, and b) while of uncertain parentage, many naturally doubted rumours about it. Aegon will not be pressing his claim against Daenerys (at least initially), but against Lannisters, who by now had thoroughly discredited themselves.

2) As I noted in point above, during First Blackfyre Rebellion, just rumours about Daeron's parentage were enough to give Daemon support of the half of Seven Kingdoms. Why reverse would not work?

3) If Aegon is secured on the throne, many lords will naturally prefer a known element over an unknown one.

1 & 2) Daemon was born to a Targ princess so he was of royal blood no matter who his father was. He was also later acknowledged by Aegon IV and given Blackfyre. There is no one who can confirm Aegon's identity.

3) Again, if you accept this, it must also be true that many lords would naturally prefer Cersei, the known element.

Aldarion · June 9, 2020

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

3) Again, if you accept this, it must also be true that many lords would naturally prefer Cersei, the known element.

And they will - until her paranoia alienates them from her. Cersei is her own greatest enemy.

Quote

Anybody with royal blood can have a claim, but the strength of that claim gets weaker further down the line of succession you get. Varys says Aegon has a better claim than Tommen and Myrcella, which is arguably true but it depends on whether enough people believes he is Rhaegar & Elia's son or not.

Agreed.

Hodor the Articulate · June 9, 2020

7 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And they will - until her paranoia alienates them from her. Cersei is her own greatest enemy.

It follows then they could just as easily abandon Aegon, whose retinue seems just as rash and alienating and as Cersei. He will likely be most influenced by JonCon and Arianne, both hot-headed and reckless, one driven by vengeance and the other ambition. With that, plus a probable greyscale outbreak and mayhem from LF and Euron, whose to say they won't welcome the true dragon. Or perhaps they'll seek out Stannis, the other known entity, who is respected if not liked.

In fact, going by your "known entity" logic, wouldn't the lords prefer Stannis if they were going to dump Cersei?

Aldarion · June 9, 2020

3 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

It follows then they could just as easily abandon Aegon, whose retinue seems just as rash and alienating and as Cersei. He will likely be most influenced by JonCon and Arianne, both hot-headed and reckless, one driven by vengeance and the other ambition. With that, plus a probable greyscale outbreak and mayhem from LF and Euron, whose to say they won't welcome the true dragon. Or perhaps they'll seek out Stannis, the other known entity, who is respected if not liked.

In fact, going by your "known entity" logic, wouldn't the lords prefer Stannis if they were going to dump Cersei?

Except his retinue is nowhere as alienating as Cersei herself is - I really don't know where you got that idea.

Compare:

Cersei: PARANOIA PARANOIA STUPIDITY PARANOIA

Jon Connington: “Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful. You would do best to walk a middle course. Let men earn your trust with leal service … but when they do, be generous and openhearted.”

I mean, Connington has good reasons for not trusting Varys and Tyrion. And have you forgotten we mostly see Connington through Tyrion's eyes? Even so, at worst, he is compared to Tywin, who was neither stupid, nor paranoid.

Yes, Connington is driven by vengeance and Arianne by ambition, but Tywin himself was driven by both of these at the same time, and he still managed to become (and remain during his life) most powerful man in Westeros. Problem is that Arianne may well turn out to be an idiot, and Sand Snakes in general are not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

And they're not going to welcome true dragon if Daenerys' visions in desert are any indication of her future state of mind... burning cities willy-nilly is hardly good PR.

Stannis has a massive PR problem himself. He is a known quantity, yes, but problem is that everybody except his own subordinates has already decided they don't like him. If it were between him and Daenerys (a stranger arriving with dragons, a red priest, Dothraki, and an (ex)slave army), or him and Euron (a murderous madman with penchant for dark magic), then yes, I would expect him to be able to garner significant support. But against Aegon?

Lord Varys · June 9, 2020

We can expect Aegon to look like the ideal king in comparison to Tommen/Myrcella - not only is he an adult, but he is also pretending to be a Targaryen and not merely a Baratheon who stands accused of being a bastard born of incest and adultery, whose powers are based on a fraying alliance of two powerful houses one of which lacks all power in the capital right now.

Taking the throne from Cersei's children should not be easy at all.

But whether that's going to mean Aegon can hold it is another matter. If Tommen and/or Myrcella were slipping through his fingers they could come back to haunt him if those people who control them and don't like Aegon's rise at all continue to press their claims and use Lannister or Tyrell money to raise more armies.

In comparison to Daenerys Aegon is going to look like a fraud, too, since he doesn't have any dragons and merely the Targaryen looks, not actual proof he is a Targaryen.

All this insistence that he might become a dragonrider is just baseless speculation at this point - but even if he gained a dragon it wouldn't necessarily help him all that much if he was very unpopular by then. Maegor having Balerion couldn't save him, either, in the end.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

I do hope that will be what will happen. I actually do like Daenerys, I just don't like a) whole Slaver's bay plot and b) whole idea of a ruler with three dragons. Zero dragons is ideal, but if that is impossible, there should be at least two other riders.

There is chance that Dany's other two dragons will end up in the hands of ambitious people, but chances that those people will then side with Aegon of all people are very slim. It is more likely they are going to try to seize the Iron Throne for themselves - or prior to that, take over Dany's movement in Essos while she is in Vaes Dothrak, and set themselves up as kings in Slaver's Bay or Volantis or Qarth or the Basilisk Isles or wherever else they might want to take their armies.

If they were only to betray Dany in Westeros chances are not very good that they would defect and defer to a dragonless Aegon if they are the ones who have the ultimate power.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

In other words, Euron is a shit strategist. "Not caring about one's own people" is a great way to lose war due to attrition - and Ironborn simply do not have a pool of manpower which would be required to win by weight of numbers. That being said, attack on Sunspear is indeed possible - but unless castle is completely unguarded, it is likely to fail (such attacks usually did fail, they were just always tried because potential payoff in avoiding the siege was so significant).

Euron's plan is to use his Ironborn to gain more men ... and chances are that he is going to be successful at this. He is exploiting them and intends to leave them to their pitiful small lives as soon as he has the Iron Throne.

Oh, it would depend how George writes that, no? If he wanted Sunspear to resist a surprise attack, it will ... if not, then it won't. And my guess he is going to write the latter scenario. Euron could repeat Theon's scenario, perhaps, have the Ironborn attack other castles along the coast first, Starfall, say, or Salt Shore, and whatever else is close to the coast. And then attack Sunspear when Doran has weakened his own garrison sufficiently.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

And "Sunspear is just a castle" is actually a disadvantage, as castles are more difficult to assault than cities. Unless Euron merely burns the suburbs and leaves.

All one needs to do is to crack open the gates or get over the walls. And the Ironborn can build siege engines and stuff on the Arbor, assuming they don't have any yet - which they must have, or else they wouldn't have been able to take the castles on the Shields.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

Daenerys has knowledge of Westerosi culture from Viserys (an idiot), Jorah (a former slaver and overall idiot) and Ser Barristan. Which is not that different from Aegon, truth be told. But difference is in that Daenerys' first experience was in Slaver's Bay, while Aegon's first experience will be King's Landing. Like it or not, she will bring some of Slaver's Bay to Westeros. Essentially, she will have to first forget many if not most of lessons she learned in Slaver's Bay before trying to rule Westeros - and that is always more difficult than just learning new lessons.

I don't see much difference there, and Dany will get more information from Tyrion and Marwyn long before she even arrives in Westeros. The Westerosi should show much more deference to a Targaryen than the Meereenese ever showed to Dany. The Targaryens are their rightful rulers, after all, she will have less problems with them than the Ghiscari whose lives and culture she tried to change.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

By the time Daenerys comes to Westeros, Aegon will already have significant local support. So while what you wrote may be true right now, it will not be true by the time she comes West. Which is the whole point.

Or he may already have lost that support again. Aegon will never control more than a fraction of the south of Westeros.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

Westeros never was peaceful, and it is not going to be peaceful with Kevan dead and Cersei in power. In fact, Westeros has somewhat-frequent wars (though not that unusual given the size of the continent), and warfare itself is not small-scale; it is more on level of Hungarian-Ottoman and Habsburg-Ottoman wars than anything typical of Western European feudal warfare. And this implies significant destruction of countryside. Just moving an army as large as Robb's or Tywin's is going to cause massive devastation along the way of the march unless they have outright Byzantine system of logistics*, and this is disregarding any additional destruction - purpuseful or not. And between Euron to the West and Stannis to the North, there never was any prospect of peace in Westeros by TWoW, Aegon or no Aegon.

Westeros is a very peaceful and quiet continent. Even the real wars like the Dance only affected tiny fractions of the entire continent. Moving an army around destroys stuff, but it only gets really problematic if the same place is crossed by an army again and again. Renly giant army was effectively a progress, and nobody seemed to complain about that at all. If the resources are there - and they are there in the south, especially - then this isn't much of an issue. But it happens perhaps a couple of times each century.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

If Aegon is a Blackfyre, then it is not impossible for him to get a dragon at one point. As for the rest of that paragraph, that would make his government no better - but also no worse - than that of Robert Baratheon or Lannisters.

Which is why both those factions wouldn't have stood a chance against Dany and her dragons coming with a huge army.

On 6/8/2020 at 1:50 PM, Aldarion said:

People siding with Daenerys depends on a) her maintaining her dragon-advantage (which is not a given) and b) her being seen as a better option than Aegon (which is partly dependant on a) ). If these two points turn out to not be true, or even only partly true, she will not be able to count on widespread support in Westeros. Aegon getting to Westeros first is an important advantage, and he does appear charismatic enough to capitalize on it (question is only for how long).

Dany will always have the advantage of having the big dragon and being the one who birthed them. Even if Aegon were to become a dragonrider, it wouldn't make him the Father of Dragons.

If Aegon were to resolve all the problems Westeros has right now and restored peace and prosperity by the time Dany showed up then he could expect to create a united front against him. But that's not going to happen.

As for your discussions about Cersei - she is out of the game. She is never going to rule as regent nor in her own right. She still is Lady of Casterly Rock and likely Euron's future queen and will be able work great havoc that way, but her days as a power player in KL under Tommen or Myrcella are over.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

Yes, but she might know too much. Personally I would find Loras' head more interesting, but that's just my preference.

I'd agree, but I think George might really need/want another POV in KL for things unfolding there. Especially if Cersei were to flee before Aegon comes knocking at the door. She would just be a spectator up until then.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

Exactly. And I think Dany will know of the fall of the Wall before the news spreads though Westeros, because Marwyn and Quaite will see it in the candles and contrary to the candle-users in the South would not have to face the problem of being seen as nut-heads.

Yes, that's actually pretty likely. Those glass candles will come in handy, too.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

Yes, although I see her land with the majority (not all, but a majority) of her troops still intact, as they will need every single man for the battle against the Others and Westeros will be spend by then.

Well, in a fight for the survival of mankind everybody will be fighting, and magic is going to play a greater role in the fight against the Others and wights than in the fight against mortals.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

Agree. And anybody who did not help in the fight will be done after this, having no position left to argue and negotiate, as standing by while everybody was working on defending the world will be seen as a crime against gods and men alike.

Yes, aside from Cersei and Euron, perhaps ... but they would not have that much of a retinue then, but enough to make some sort of last attack/assassination attempt/whatever. Especially by means of magical assassins.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

I think under-developing the world at the beginning and essentially till AFoC is biting Martin in the ass now, and he can't and/or doesn't want to retcon the regions he had described as early as AGoT and ACoK (North, Vale, Iron Isles and the Riverlands - some of this is not even "retconnable", because it would make parts the major plot implode), so they will seem even more unrealistic when he writes FaB II and the remaining books of the main series, as I do hope that he will use the "emptiness" of the Reach and the West to fill them with towns and villages.

I think changes are pretty good that he does. The Stormlands were already pretty developed in ADwD and TWoIaF, with the Weeping Town. George has gone on record around 2000 that there is pretty much nothing in the Stormlands - that's no longer the case now. Instead, chances are good that the Marcher Lords and their people are going to feature prominently in the future, adding those great archers they have to Black Balaq's goldenheart archers.

On 6/8/2020 at 10:29 AM, Morte said:

Highgarden, with it's vast gardens and fields, lying alone and abandoned in the middle of nowhere would be a joke for the number of hands and infrastructure you need to tend to such a "castle" alone.

Yeah, that's why we can hope that when you get beyond those gardens and labyriths and stuff that there are some towns there. It would be better still if the Gardeners had build it as a country residence with there being a big city nearby which was the actual capital of the Reach, but that's not going to work.

Lord Varys · June 9, 2020

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Jon Connington: “Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful. You would do best to walk a middle course. Let men earn your trust with leal service … but when they do, be generous and openhearted.”

Connington gives good advice, but he is overly proud and sees his own counsel as the best counsel. He is already starting to lose the ear of the king he is trying to make. And once his sickness progresses and/or it is revealed to Aegon or the public, he is going to be a completely loose cannon ... if they allow him to live under those circumstances (which is actually not that likely).

Quote

Yes, Connington is driven by vengeance and Arianne by ambition, but Tywin himself was driven by both of these at the same time, and he still managed to become (and remain during his life) most powerful man in Westeros. Problem is that Arianne may well turn out to be an idiot, and Sand Snakes in general are not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

Tywin Lannister was the heir of and eventually the greatest lord of the Realm, a man who had very close ties to the royal court throughout most of his life. Connington is a mid-tier lord who will never have the means nor the patience and connections of Tywin to accomplish his goals. He is an outsider who comes in and tries to push aside establish power structures and bring in his own people. That is difficult in any scenario, but especially hard when it is done with force and violence.

Aegon cannot rise to the Iron Throne without making quite a few people angry.

Quote

And they're not going to welcome true dragon if Daenerys' visions in desert are any indication of her future state of mind... burning cities willy-nilly is hardly good PR.

She has no visions about burning cities, she simply finally admits to herself that she doesn't belong in Slaver's Bay. 'A dragon plants no trees' doesn't mean 'A dragon burns cities to the ground (for no good reason).'

Now, I certainly agree that while reports about Dany's deeds back in Essos reach Westeros Aegon and his cronies will use that paint her as a mad tyrant and stuff, but that was never in doubt. The question is whether those slanders are going to continue to have much weight once Dany finally arrives and approaches the lords of the Realm offering them her own terms, etc.

And there it is quite clear that literal dragons beat fake dragons twofold - both in the sense that Dany does have dragons and Aegon doesn't, and in the sense that Aegon is likely not a Targaryen whereas Dany most definitely is one.

Quote

Stannis has a massive PR problem himself. He is a known quantity, yes, but problem is that everybody except his own subordinates has already decided they don't like him. If it were between him and Daenerys (a stranger arriving with dragons, a red priest, Dothraki, and an (ex)slave army), or him and Euron (a murderous madman with penchant for dark magic), then yes, I would expect him to be able to garner significant support. But against Aegon?

Stannis wouldn't last five minutes against Daenerys or any Targaryen pretender, because he himself is a complete outsider now. Not only did he turn against the two majority religions in Westeros, he also started to persecute their followers.

And even Euron would look as a better alternative than Stannis because, unlike Stannis, Euron Greyjoy is charismatic and a capable diplomat. He is a psychopath who can pretend to be a nice guy. Stannis cannot even bring himself to try to pretend that he likes other people, much fool anyone into believing that he does.

That the man still has any followers left is very odd - Theon 1 is a huge eye-opener in this regard. Stannis treats his own loyal knights and lieutenants little better than servants. In fact, if he isn't slain in battle or eventually kills himself, my expectation for the death of Stannis is that his 'loyal men' end up killing him, possibly burning him as a sacrifice to R'hllor when all seems truly lost.

Hodor the Articulate · June 10, 2020

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Except his retinue is nowhere as alienating as Cersei herself is - I really don't know where you got that idea.

Compare:

Cersei: PARANOIA PARANOIA STUPIDITY PARANOIA

Jon Connington: “Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful. You would do best to walk a middle course. Let men earn your trust with leal service … but when they do, be generous and openhearted.”

I mean, Connington has good reasons for not trusting Varys and Tyrion. And have you forgotten we mostly see Connington through Tyrion's eyes? Even so, at worst, he is compared to Tywin, who was neither stupid, nor paranoid.

Yes, Connington is driven by vengeance and Arianne by ambition, but Tywin himself was driven by both of these at the same time, and he still managed to become (and remain during his life) most powerful man in Westeros. Problem is that Arianne may well turn out to be an idiot, and Sand Snakes in general are not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed.

And they're not going to welcome true dragon if Daenerys' visions in desert are any indication of her future state of mind... burning cities willy-nilly is hardly good PR.

Stannis has a massive PR problem himself. He is a known quantity, yes, but problem is that everybody except his own subordinates has already decided they don't like him. If it were between him and Daenerys (a stranger arriving with dragons, a red priest, Dothraki, and an (ex)slave army), or him and Euron (a murderous madman with penchant for dark magic), then yes, I would expect him to be able to garner significant support. But against Aegon?

The point is not that ambition and vengeance are bad per se - after all, this is what any challenger to the throne is going to be driven by, at least in part - the point is that JonCon and Arianne seem consumed by these desires. Combined with their hot-headedness, mistakes will be made, as will enemies. They have Tywin's ruthlessness but none of his self-control, and they are no way near as wise.

But JonCon and Arianne are more like symptoms. The real problem is Aegon's naivety. He's going to be surrounded by opportunists, all fighting to sway Aegon, and he's going to fall for a lot of it.

The importance of a "known entity" was your argument. But it's clearly more complex than that, isn't it? Aegon will not be able to keep his seat "with this one weird trick!" any more than anyone else can.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But whether that's going to mean Aegon can hold it is another matter. If Tommen and/or Myrcella were slipping through his fingers they could come back to haunt him if those people who control them and don't like Aegon's rise at all continue to press their claims and use Lannister or Tyrell money to raise more armies.

True. I use Cersei because she's the one in charge right now, but I should really say Tommen/Myrcella's regent. Unless they're killed, Cersei's (former) allies will rally around them. They're not going to automatically flock to Aegon when they have this pliable child king in their hands. Of course, they could die in the taking of KL.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Now, I certainly agree that while reports about Dany's deeds back in Essos reach Westeros Aegon and his cronies will use that paint her as a mad tyrant and stuff, but that was never in doubt. The question is whether those slanders are going to continue to have much weight once Dany finally arrives and approaches the lords of the Realm offering them her own terms, etc.

This will definitely come from Arianne since she's already thinking these things. I foresee juicy drama between her and JonCon, who is going to be piiissed he's losing influence over his prince.

Lord Varys · June 10, 2020

9 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

True. I use Cersei because she's the one in charge right now, but I should really say Tommen/Myrcella's regent. Unless they're killed, Cersei's (former) allies will rally around them. They're not going to automatically flock to Aegon when they have this pliable child king in their hands. Of course, they could die in the taking of KL.

Yeah, we see how successful such rebels can be with Aegon III - he was even in the hands of Aegon II yet Aegon II was defeated in the field in the name of the late Queen Rhaenyra and cast down in the name of her son, King Aegon III. I don't expect that to happen with Tommen/Myrcella in Aegon's clutches, of course, but the simple fact that this did happen indicates that something like that can happen.

And Aegon's enemies wouldn't even need their own pretender(s) - they could just fight him because they don't want him as their king or are unhappy with his policies - like the Riverlanders are right now plotting against/fighting against the Lannisters and Freys without having a clear idea who should sit the Iron Throne or who is supposed to rule the Riverlands.

9 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

This will definitely come from Arianne since she's already thinking these things. I foresee juicy drama between her and JonCon, who is going to be piiissed he's losing influence over his prince.

To be sure, Arianne might turn out to be a poisoned apple for Aegon. She is Dornish, and the majority of Westeros didn't like the idea of a Dornish queen and Dornish-looking Heir Apparent the last time that happened. Meaning that while those 20,000 Dornishmen might certainly help Aegon with his original campaign they could, in the long run, make it difficult to get as many Reach and Stormlords on board as he would like to or even needs. And while I think a third or perhaps even half the Reach might declare for Aegon, if he fails to secure the Tyrells in the long he couldn't really count on them.

I don't see Arianne as much of a problem in the general advisory field - she is doing much better in those sample chapters - but she certainly is not going to help Aegon to get on the same page with Daenerys.

And if she doesn't like Jon Connington she will destroy him. And she definitely will have to fight him over the issue of Aegon's marriage.

I think the biggest crisis in Aegon's government will be an internal implosion - once Aegon himself figures or is told who he actually is. That is not only going to drive him nuts - he might feel betrayed, although I think he will like it to have his true father around in Illyrio - since he is already wary of the people around him. And if that revelation isn't limited to the inner circle we cannot really know what Arianne or Jon Connington or some other lords who might join him believing him to be Rhaegar's son might do.

If Aegon is conflicted whether he would even want to be king under those circumstances, but decides he had to go on or die, he might grow very bitter pretty quickly, not exactly being keen on showing the world the image of a happy or nice and forgiving king. Instead, he might lash out when it is not exactly smart to do that.

Aegon may very well be set up as another 'Half-Year ~~Queen~~ King' - the rightful heir swooping in and being expected to right all the wrongs. Only suffer so many betrayals and setbacks that he himself and his own advisers ruin his own reign as much as his enemies do.

And don't delude yourselves - if Aegon doesn't deliver, if he doesn't turn out the golden boy Varys once the boy to be - the eunuch will turn against him. The Epilogue made it clear that for Varys Aegon is a means to an end, not the end as such. If he turned into another Maegor the Cruel or Aegon the Unworthy (or only Robert the Sot) he is not going to insist he has to remain king against all odds. Especially not if there were a viable alternative in Daenerys.

I think there may be a time when Varys/Illyrio will be so happy with Aegon that they try to remove Dany from the game, but if Varys later realizes that this was a mistake and that Aegon turns out to be a failure or a bad apple, then he wouldn't go down with him ... especially not if his end of a lasting peace could be accomplished with another pretender.

Hodor the Articulate · June 10, 2020

@Lord Varys I see Aegon as another Robb. He's charismatic and handsome and has easy victories at first. But his naivety will lose him the war, and probably his life. Young Wolf, Young Dragon... Young Griff.

I agree that Varys is using Aegon as a means to an end, but I think that end is power, and "for the realm" is secondary to that, despite what he says. I think he's invested too much in this Aegon plot to ditch him if he turns out to be Bobby B 2.0, but I agree he's not the type to go down with a burning ship.

Aldarion · June 10, 2020

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is chance that Dany's other two dragons will end up in the hands of ambitious people, but chances that those people will then side with Aegon of all people are very slim. It is more likely they are going to try to seize the Iron Throne for themselves - or prior to that, take over Dany's movement in Essos while she is in Vaes Dothrak, and set themselves up as kings in Slaver's Bay or Volantis or Qarth or the Basilisk Isles or wherever else they might want to take their armies.

If they were only to betray Dany in Westeros chances are not very good that they would defect and defer to a dragonless Aegon if they are the ones who have the ultimate power.

That depends on a lot of factors. Aegon likely has some connection to Targaryens (both Blackfyre and Brightflame are cadet houses of Targaryens) so he is actually most likely to become a dragon rider. "Everybody's A Targaryen LOL" which is the basis of these theories simply doesn't pass the smell test.

And ultimate power is not enough to rule, as Daenerys has discovered. Even if somebody else becomes a dragon rider, if they have any brain at all, best course of action would be defecting to Aegon and then trying to become the power behind the throne.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron's plan is to use his Ironborn to gain more men ... and chances are that he is going to be successful at this. He is exploiting them and intends to leave them to their pitiful small lives as soon as he has the Iron Throne.

Oh, it would depend how George writes that, no? If he wanted Sunspear to resist a surprise attack, it will ... if not, then it won't. And my guess he is going to write the latter scenario. Euron could repeat Theon's scenario, perhaps, have the Ironborn attack other castles along the coast first, Starfall, say, or Salt Shore, and whatever else is close to the coast. And then attack Sunspear when Doran has weakened his own garrison sufficiently.

Which is a shitty plan, because if he does not care about his Ironborn, why would he care about anyone else? And if he doesn't care about anyone else, why would anyone support him?

RE: Second paragraph, addressed below.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

All one needs to do is to crack open the gates or get over the walls. And the Ironborn can build siege engines and stuff on the Arbor, assuming they don't have any yet - which they must have, or else they wouldn't have been able to take the castles on the Shields.

And that is where you are wrong. It seems to me that most readers do not understand how difficult it really is to take a castle (though to be fair, it does not seem Martin understands it either). First, "cracking open the gates" and "getting over the walls" is hellishly difficult unless castle is nearly-unmanned (and you'd be surprised how small castle garrisons could be and still resist successfully - in pre-gunpowder era, twenty men could hold up an army of hundreds, even thousands. Hell, it could happen in gunpowder era as well - at Siget, <3 000 defenders held up an army of 100 000 for months). Second, even if it does happen, it is not a guarantee of success - most castles, even those that are not concentric, still have layered defenses, both without and within the castle itself. There were many cases where attackers siezed the walls and/or the gates and were still thrown back. Even if Doran weakens the garrison at Sunspear, there is still no guarantee that Ironborn will be able to take the castle.

That being said, I am not saying it could not happen. After all, most powerful weapon in A Song of Ice and Fire is not dragons, but plot convenience.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't see much difference there, and Dany will get more information from Tyrion and Marwyn long before she even arrives in Westeros. The Westerosi should show much more deference to a Targaryen than the Meereenese ever showed to Dany. The Targaryens are their rightful rulers, after all, she will have less problems with them than the Ghiscari whose lives and culture she tried to change.

Tyrion is hardly a reliable source himself, especially considering his current mental state, and Marwyn is an archmaester.

I do agree that she will have less problems with Westerosi, but that depends on how she presents herself and what her first actions upon coming to Westeros are. Both Aerys and Rhaegar are well remembered in Westeros, after all.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Or he may already have lost that support again. Aegon will never control more than a fraction of the south of Westeros.

He may have. Or he may have increased it. Personally, I believe the latter is much more likely - I do not think he will be (or should be) walkover for Daenerys, as you seem to think.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Westeros is a very peaceful and quiet continent. Even the real wars like the Dance only affected tiny fractions of the entire continent. Moving an army around destroys stuff, but it only gets really problematic if the same place is crossed by an army again and again. Renly giant army was effectively a progress, and nobody seemed to complain about that at all. If the resources are there - and they are there in the south, especially - then this isn't much of an issue. But it happens perhaps a couple of times each century.

It is always an issue, but especially so in a feudal society. Renly's army should have starved the countryside around it, and that is with fleet support.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron's plan is to use his Ironborn to gain more men ... and chances are that he is going to be successful at this. He is exploiting them and intends to leave them to their pitiful small lives as soon as he has the Iron Throne.

Oh, it would depend how George writes that, no? If he wanted Sunspear to resist a surprise attack, it will ... if not, then it won't. And my guess he is going to write the latter scenario. Euron could repeat Theon's scenario, perhaps, have the Ironborn attack other castles along the coast first, Starfall, say, or Salt Shore, and whatever else is close to the coast. And then attack Sunspear when Doran has weakened his own garrison sufficiently.

Dany's army is a joke; the real problems are the dragons. As for popularity, she is not going to be popular in Westeros.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany will always have the advantage of having the big dragon and being the one who birthed them. Even if Aegon were to become a dragonrider, it wouldn't make him the Father of Dragons.

If Aegon were to resolve all the problems Westeros has right now and restored peace and prosperity by the time Dany showed up then he could expect to create a united front against him. But that's not going to happen.

As for your discussions about Cersei - she is out of the game. She is never going to rule as regent nor in her own right. She still is Lady of Casterly Rock and likely Euron's future queen and will be able work great havoc that way, but her days as a power player in KL under Tommen or Myrcella are over.

She didn't birth dragons, she hatched them. And whether that will truly be an advantage for her depends on rest of the context - specifically, her behaviour. And at best it will be able to balance out the fact that she will be coming with a bunch of barbarians and (former) slaves, both things which Westerosi hate.

I am not expecting an entirely unified front behind him, but frankly, just Daenerys appearing will likely increase support for Aegon (see above).

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany will always have the advantage of having the big dragon and being the one who birthed them. Even if Aegon were to become a dragonrider, it wouldn't make him the Father of Dragons.

If Aegon were to resolve all the problems Westeros has right now and restored peace and prosperity by the time Dany showed up then he could expect to create a united front against him. But that's not going to happen.

As for your discussions about Cersei - she is out of the game. She is never going to rule as regent nor in her own right. She still is Lady of Casterly Rock and likely Euron's future queen and will be able work great havoc that way, but her days as a power player in KL under Tommen or Myrcella are over.

That is true. But that does not necessarily mean his advice will be forgotten, and it definitely disproves what Hodor said about Aegon's "rash and alienating" retinue.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin Lannister was the heir of and eventually the greatest lord of the Realm, a man who had very close ties to the royal court throughout most of his life. Connington is a mid-tier lord who will never have the means nor the patience and connections of Tywin to accomplish his goals. He is an outsider who comes in and tries to push aside establish power structures and bring in his own people. That is difficult in any scenario, but especially hard when it is done with force and violence.

Aegon cannot rise to the Iron Throne without making quite a few people angry.

True, but that does not mean he cannot secure widespread support.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She has no visions about burning cities, she simply finally admits to herself that she doesn't belong in Slaver's Bay. 'A dragon plants no trees' doesn't mean 'A dragon burns cities to the ground (for no good reason).'

Now, I certainly agree that while reports about Dany's deeds back in Essos reach Westeros Aegon and his cronies will use that paint her as a mad tyrant and stuff, but that was never in doubt. The question is whether those slanders are going to continue to have much weight once Dany finally arrives and approaches the lords of the Realm offering them her own terms, etc.

And there it is quite clear that literal dragons beat fake dragons twofold - both in the sense that Dany does have dragons and Aegon doesn't, and in the sense that Aegon is likely not a Targaryen whereas Dany most definitely is one.

Actually, that is pretty much what her vision means.

“I will never have a little girl. I was the Mother of Dragons.”

Aye, the grass said, but you turned against your children.

...

“I am the blood of the dragon,” she told the grass, aloud.

Once, the grass whispered back, until you chained your dragons in the dark.

...

No. You are the blood of the dragon. The whispering was growing fainter, as if Ser Jorah were falling farther behind. Dragons plant no trees. Remember that. Remember who you are, what you were made to be. Remember your words.
“Fire and Blood,” Daenerys told the swaying grass.

What these visions mean is that she has turned her back on her family's history of brutality, and doing so was a mistake. And she is going to rectify that mistake. She is going to burn everyone she sees as an enemy. And that means "campaign of liberation" across Slaver's bay. So those "reports" that "Aegon and his cronies will use that paint her as a mad tyrant and stuff" will actually be quite true.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis wouldn't last five minutes against Daenerys or any Targaryen pretender, because he himself is a complete outsider now. Not only did he turn against the two majority religions in Westeros, he also started to persecute their followers.

And even Euron would look as a better alternative than Stannis because, unlike Stannis, Euron Greyjoy is charismatic and a capable diplomat. He is a psychopath who can pretend to be a nice guy. Stannis cannot even bring himself to try to pretend that he likes other people, much fool anyone into believing that he does.

That the man still has any followers left is very odd - Theon 1 is a huge eye-opener in this regard. Stannis treats his own loyal knights and lieutenants little better than servants. In fact, if he isn't slain in battle or eventually kills himself, my expectation for the death of Stannis is that his 'loyal men' end up killing him, possibly burning him as a sacrifice to R'hllor when all seems truly lost.

It is not odd, actually. Stannis was willing to starve alongside his own men during the siege of Storm's End. When we see him during march, he is just as starved as his men are. Soldiers will do wonders for a commander who is willing to go to hell with them, regardless of his other flaws.

4 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

The point is not that ambition and vengeance are bad per se - after all, this is what any challenger to the throne is going to be driven by, at least in part - the point is that JonCon and Arianne seem consumed by these desires. Combined with their hot-headedness, mistakes will be made, as will enemies. They have Tywin's ruthlessness but none of his self-control, and they are no way near as wise.

But JonCon and Arianne are more like symptoms. The real problem is Aegon's naivety. He's going to be surrounded by opportunists, all fighting to sway Aegon, and he's going to fall for a lot of it.

The importance of a "known entity" was your argument. But it's clearly more complex than that, isn't it? Aegon will not be able to keep his seat "with this one weird trick!" any more than anyone else can.

This I actually agree with. But on the flip side, Aegon himself is lot more independent than he used to be, and does not care much for past wrongs and titles.

Sign In

The Latest News

Notable Releases

Aegon as a king

Recommended Posts

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Archived