Aegon as a king

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

@Lord Varys I see Aegon as another Robb. He's charismatic and handsome and has easy victories at first. But his naivety will lose him the war, and probably his life. Young Wolf, Young Dragon... Young Griff.

The parallel with the Young Dragon is the one that's the most striking. George even had him use the same words as Daeron I when he addressed the Golden Company. And that's not an accident. I don't think Aegon will make the same type of mistakes as Robb does.

8 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I agree that Varys is using Aegon as a means to an end, but I think that end is power, and "for the realm" is secondary to that, despite what he says. I think he's invested too much in this Aegon plot to ditch him if he turns out to be Bobby B 2.0, but I agree he's not the type to go down with a burning ship.

Oh, no, that's really his ultimate goal. We are not likely to see Varys' true face the way we saw it in the Epilogue (unless George gives us Varys' own POV or Illyrio's). He is one of the most misunderstood characters which only makes sense if he really cares about peace and the children and stuff, and uses this Aegon fellow just as a means to an end. A rather complicated plot, to be sure, but one imagines that Aegon is simply Varys' answer to his own riddle.

Who does Varys think the Westerosi people will follow? Their rightful king, of course, who will be able to ensure he has religious support as well as enough money to prevent other rich men to outbuy him.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That depends on a lot of factors. Aegon likely has some connection to Targaryens (both Blackfyre and Brightflame are cadet houses of Targaryens) so he is actually most likely to become a dragon rider. "Everybody's A Targaryen LOL" which is the basis of these theories simply doesn't pass the smell test.

Everybody doesn't have to be a Targaryen for Rhaegal and Viserion to have riders long before said dragons even get to Westeros. He will look bad simply by that. If he were to ever employ another dragonrider in some capacity he would undermine himself.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And ultimate power is not enough to rule, as Daenerys has discovered. Even if somebody else becomes a dragon rider, if they have any brain at all, best course of action would be defecting to Aegon and then trying to become the power behind the throne.

This is not what men like Hugh and Ulf tried to do, is it?

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Which is a shitty plan, because if he does not care about his Ironborn, why would he care about anyone else? And if he doesn't care about anyone else, why would anyone support him?

Because they don't know who and what he actually is. They are fooled by him - his own people already are, and other Westerosi will be, too.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And that is where you are wrong. It seems to me that most readers do not understand how difficult it really is to take a castle (though to be fair, it does not seem Martin understands it either). First, "cracking open the gates" and "getting over the walls" is hellishly difficult unless castle is nearly-unmanned (and you'd be surprised how small castle garrisons could be and still resist successfully - in pre-gunpowder era, twenty men could hold up an army of hundreds, even thousands. Hell, it could happen in gunpowder era as well - at Siget, <3 000 defenders held up an army of 100 000 for months). Second, even if it does happen, it is not a guarantee of success - most castles, even those that are not concentric, still have layered defenses, both without and within the castle itself. There were many cases where attackers siezed the walls and/or the gates and were still thrown back. Even if Doran weakens the garrison at Sunspear, there is still no guarantee that Ironborn will be able to take the castle.

That being said, I am not saying it could not happen. After all, most powerful weapon in A Song of Ice and Fire is not dragons, but plot convenience.

Exactly, neither I nor George care about the kind of realism you talk about. If this was realistic then Winterfell wouldn't have fallen in ACoK.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Tyrion is hardly a reliable source himself, especially considering his current mental state, and Marwyn is an archmaester.

 

I do agree that she will have less problems with Westerosi, but that depends on how she presents herself and what her first actions upon coming to Westeros are. Both Aerys and Rhaegar are well remembered in Westeros, after all.

 

He may have. Or he may have increased it. Personally, I believe the latter is much more likely - I do not think he will be (or should be) walkover for Daenerys, as you seem to think.

 

It is always an issue, but especially so in a feudal society. Renly's army should have starved the countryside around it, and that is with fleet support.

Tyrion and Marwyn are ideal sources to inform Daenerys about Westerosi society. They are both learned men who know a lot about the lords and knights of Westeros.

Daenerys is Rhaegar's sister, she should have no problem with people remembering her brother.

Aegon certainly should have more men when Dany comes than he has now - else he won't even be able to offer any resistance at all - but the very existence of Euron and Cersei and the Lannisters and Vale men (if they don't join him) and the Tyrells is going to prevent him from having access to all the south.

And the people at the place where Dany lands are not going to remain loyal to Aegon - or whoever else holds that territory now. They just won't.

But it didn't starve it - which in turn means that the countryside isn't starved in this world just because an army marches through. And in fact, people only got in really dire situations during, say, the Thirty Years' War when the armies and sellswords came again and again to certain villages and towns to forage for food. That's when they were butchered and that's when the people started to starve.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Dany's army is a joke; the real problems are the dragons. As for popularity, she is not going to be popular in Westeros.

Dany's army won't be a joke when she comes. She will have all the Dothraki, the bulk of the Volantene tiger soldiers - a professional standing army - her Unsullied, various professional sellswords, and, presumably, also quite a few companies of freedmen, and Victarion's Ironborn.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

She didn't birth dragons, she hatched them. And whether that will truly be an advantage for her depends on rest of the context - specifically, her behaviour. And at best it will be able to balance out the fact that she will be coming with a bunch of barbarians and (former) slaves, both things which Westerosi hate.

On what do you base the idea that the Westerosi hate former slaves? Barbarians might be despised, but the crucial thing all of that will inspire is fear and respect - and with those things come deference and submission, not resistance. Especially not with the lords who do not only want to keep their heads but also their property.

If Daenerys has the means to crush any resistance and truly annihilate any resistance to her person whatsoever then this is not going to cause the people to fight back, it will motivate them to abandon Aegon and join her. Especially since they would have joined that guy mostly out of opportunism anyway.

In addition, Daenerys' power will offer them support and help in winter and against their own wolves which should plague them by now - Euron and Cersei foremost among them. It should even be more easy if the stories about the Others have reached the people by then.

If Dany emulates Aegon the Conqueror she will win the hearts and minds of people, not their hate.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I am not expecting an entirely unified front behind him, but frankly, just Daenerys appearing will likely increase support for Aegon (see above).

Not really. Only if he were successful as king - which he cannot really be. Not with Euron Greyjoy out there.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

What these visions mean is that she has turned her back on her family's history of brutality, and doing so was a mistake. And she is going to rectify that mistake. She is going to burn everyone she sees as an enemy. And that means "campaign of liberation" across Slaver's bay. So those "reports" that "Aegon and his cronies will use that paint her as a mad tyrant and stuff" will actually be quite true.

Her family's history isn't a history of brutality, but of power state-building and unification. Westeros was a backwater continent of barbarians living in constant war prior to the Aegon I and Jaehaerys I. It was a mistake to try to live in peace with men who hate her, but this doesn't mean she is going to burn people now and ask questions later. That was never the Targaryen way. And chances that she will be able to burn Slaver's Bay are not that high - her people in Meereen will have to deal with the Meereenese and the Yunkai'i while she is stuck with the Dothraki. Yunkai's fate will be decided long before she returns, as will the fate of Hizdahr and the Green Grace and the Sons fo the Harpy.

I don't expect Dany to be more tyrannical than Aegon the Conqueror. There is nothing wrong within the logic of this world to burn thousands of people to get a crucial point across.

On the other side, though, it is quite clear that Aegon is not the guy who will ever be able to be particularly lenient with people opposing him. He has no true legitimacy as a Targaryen and king - no dragons, and no parentage that can be proved. When people don't buy his story the first time and continue to resist him he will have to crush them. That means he is going to be the guy who cuts out tongues, attaints entire houses, executes entire families, etc. - because he will have no other means to exert his authority. He cannot point to the dragons or his vast army both of which make resistance madness.

The way to have authority in this world is to show what you can do ... but refrain from doing it.

Dany's problem in Meereen was that she wasn't willing to do what it took. She couldn't see the hostages as hostages, she couldn't bring herself to consider to murder all the Meereenese elite (which would be just a couple of hundred people, all things considered, nothing worse than what Aegon I did to Harrenhal). But she has to do that to be successful. But this doesn't mean to turn into Maegor.

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

It is not odd, actually. Stannis was willing to starve alongside his own men during the siege of Storm's End. When we see him during march, he is just as starved as his men are. Soldiers will do wonders for a commander who is willing to go to hell with them, regardless of his other flaws.

He still doesn't reward them properly for their service. Just look how he talks with Massey and Horpe. And they are the good apples in his basket, but it is men like Suggs he should be worried about - and the other fanatics in his retinue.

And Stannis isn't a commander who shares everything with his men. He has the tower, not a common tent. And at Storm's End he likely also ate better than the common men and got more rations. Stannis is also a commander who leads from the rear, not the front, his men die for him, not he (possibly) for them.

[Morte]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin Lannister was the heir of and eventually the greatest lord of the Realm, a man who had very close ties to the royal court throughout most of his life. Connington is a mid-tier lord who will never have the means nor the patience and connections of Tywin to accomplish his goals. He is an outsider who comes in and tries to push aside establish power structures and bring in his own people. That is difficult in any scenario, but especially hard when it is done with force and violence.

Aegon cannot rise to the Iron Throne without making quite a few people angry.

And we should also note that even Tywin did make more than just a few people angry, and himself despised with many of his actions. But contrary to Aegon he was already in a position where this did not matter that much, being Lord Lannister and first a long-time friend to a king, later the good father to another king.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd agree, but I think George might really need/want another POV in KL for things unfolding there. Especially if Cersei were to flee before Aegon comes knocking at the door. She would just be a spectator up until then.

Well, than I have to hope for Cersei to stay long enough to make it count, because I don't know if I can stand another POV from a high-born lady playing silly games.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

She didn't birth dragons, she hatched them. And whether that will truly be an advantage for her depends on rest of the context - specifically, her behaviour. And at best it will be able to balance out the fact that she will be coming with a bunch of barbarians and (former) slaves, both things which Westerosi hate.

On what do you base the idea that the Westerosi hate former slaves? Barbarians might be despised, but the crucial thing all of that will inspire is fear and respect - and with those things come deference and submission, not resistance. Especially not with the lords who do not only want to keep their heads but also their property.

Actually, concerning the former slaves, it's the other way around. While the propaganda against Dany will work pretty well as long as she is in Essos, it would soon start to crumble when the people coming with her start telling their tales about how she freed them, stopped slavery and got the Dothraki to abandon it, too.

And when the "savages" start distributing food even the Dothraki will no longer be (that) feared and hated.

11 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I agree that Varys is using Aegon as a means to an end, but I think that end is power, and "for the realm" is secondary to that, despite what he says. I think he's invested too much in this Aegon plot to ditch him if he turns out to be Bobby B 2.0, but I agree he's not the type to go down with a burning ship.

I agree with @Lord Varys here. Imho Varys really isn't interested in power, but in breeding the perfect king to rule wisely and just and in favour of the people. His and Illyrio's interests might collide somewhere, if Aegon is truly Ilyrio's son and turns out to not meet Varys' exceptions, because I agree with both of you, he will ditch him, if Aegon isn't what he expects him to be and can't be influenced by him toward doing the right thing.

If Aegon would just be another King Bob, but with a good and able Small Council set with wise people interested in the common good, I, too, don't think Varys would ditch him. But that ship has imho sailed with Arianne and JonCon. And the other flocking to him will be much worse. Except for maybe Edmure, but I don't really see him coming into action as a Lord that soon to land on Aegon's side (and also because I see Aegon as Jaime's failed attempt at redemption, and I don't see Edmure and Jaime being on the same side that early, in the end, yes, but not yet). Of course there are the wild cards of Willas and the Hightowers in the South, who also might end in Aegon's camp, but I don't know how influential they could be if Arianne does wrap the boy around her finger.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

It is not odd, actually. Stannis was willing to starve alongside his own men during the siege of Storm's End. When we see him during march, he is just as starved as his men are. Soldiers will do wonders for a commander who is willing to go to hell with them, regardless of his other flaws.

He still doesn't reward them properly for their service. Just look how he talks with Massey and Horpe. And they are the good apples in his basket, but it is men like Suggs he should be worried about - and the other fanatics in his retinue.

And Stannis isn't a commander who shares everything with his men. He has the tower, not a common tent. And at Storm's End he likely also ate better than the common men and got more rations. Stannis is also a commander who leads from the rear, not the front, his men die for him, not he (possibly) for them.

Exactly. This is _not_ "prince mulled wine", aka Tiberius; Stannis might be inspired by a caricature of the man, but he has none of his redeeming qualities nor his habit to reward loyal and good service (and don't mention Davos, as this one seems to be an exception than you look how Stannis handles his men).

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Everybody doesn't have to be a Targaryen for Rhaegal and Viserion to have riders long before said dragons even get to Westeros. He will look bad simply by that. If he were to ever employ another dragonrider in some capacity he would undermine himself.

 

Dragons are connected to magic, and whole point of Targaryen interbreeding was to prevent them from losing their ability to ride dragons.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because they don't know who and what he actually is. They are fooled by him - his own people already are, and other Westerosi will be, too.

 

With other Westerosi, there is more than a bit of a problem in the simple fact that he is an Ironborn. Which most of the Westerosi likely know as raiders and pillagers.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion and Marwyn are ideal sources to inform Daenerys about Westerosi society. They are both learned men who know a lot about the lords and knights of Westeros.

Daenerys is Rhaegar's sister, she should have no problem with people remembering her brother.

Aegon certainly should have more men when Dany comes than he has now - else he won't even be able to offer any resistance at all - but the very existence of Euron and Cersei and the Lannisters and Vale men (if they don't join him) and the Tyrells is going to prevent him from having access to all the south.

And the people at the place where Dany lands are not going to remain loyal to Aegon - or whoever else holds that territory now. They just won't.

But it didn't starve it - which in turn means that the countryside isn't starved in this world just because an army marches through. And in fact, people only got in really dire situations during, say, the Thirty Years' War when the armies and sellswords came again and again to certain villages and towns to forage for food. That's when they were butchered and that's when the people started to starve.

And both of them have their own goals; Tyrion is consumed by hate and revenge while Marwyn is a Maester. In other words, if we exclude Ser Barristan, both Aegon and Daenerys will have advisors of the same calibre - people who at best care about idea of them, and at worst do not care about them at all.

As I said, depends on how she presents herself. She is Rhaegar's sister, yes, but she is also Aerys' daughter. People will remember both, and eventually one of those two will dominate the other.

Euron and Cersei will take Lannisters and Ironborn away from Aegon, true. But he may well be able to gain much if not most of the Reach, at least at first, and Vale may also join him.

People complained about burden induced by Byzantine armies - which were typically in 10 000 - 30 000 range - despite the Empire having much better logistical support system than any feudal society should be capable of. In fact, moving armies was such a problem that Byzantine military manuals warn generals against damaging the countryside too much. And as for Thirty Years War, what you wrote is only true if under "dire straits" you mean "exterminated"; areas where armies came through again and again ended up completely depopulated.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion and Marwyn are ideal sources to inform Daenerys about Westerosi society. They are both learned men who know a lot about the lords and knights of Westeros.

Daenerys is Rhaegar's sister, she should have no problem with people remembering her brother.

Aegon certainly should have more men when Dany comes than he has now - else he won't even be able to offer any resistance at all - but the very existence of Euron and Cersei and the Lannisters and Vale men (if they don't join him) and the Tyrells is going to prevent him from having access to all the south.

And the people at the place where Dany lands are not going to remain loyal to Aegon - or whoever else holds that territory now. They just won't.

But it didn't starve it - which in turn means that the countryside isn't starved in this world just because an army marches through. And in fact, people only got in really dire situations during, say, the Thirty Years' War when the armies and sellswords came again and again to certain villages and towns to forage for food. That's when they were butchered and that's when the people started to starve.

1. Dothraki are a joke, and even actual historical Mongols would not be much of a threat to a 15th-century army such as fielded by... everyone in Westeros but the Starks and the Ironborn, apparently. First Mongol invasion of Hungary faced a kingdom which fielded an army that was predominantly light cavalry, had not fought any serious enemy in quite a while (due to being a local military superpower) and had almost no stone fortifications north of Sava. Westerosi invasion is similar to this situation... except Mongols are Westerosi. They use actual tactics while Dothraki repertoire is rather limited (Mongols used tactics, Hungarians mostly didn't), they have heavy cavalry (Mongols had heavy cavalry, Hungarians mostly didn't), they have stone castles (Hungarians didn't have them). In second invasion, when Hungarians actually had heavy cavalry, used proper battlefield tactics and had stone castles - in other words, when Hungarians acted like Westerosi - Mongols were defeated in short order.

2. Volantene tiger soldiers are a city guard, which in Westeros are (or should be) dime-a-dozen. And they are Slaver's Bay city guard. In other words, another army of paper tigers.

3. Unsullied are a joke, tactically and in terms of equipment both. I wrote about it in more detail elsewhere, but to sum up, a) Unsullied which Daenerys brings to Westeros will have lost much of their original discipline and fearlessness due to her being too lax with them, b) even original Unsullied were nothing like what they were cracked up to be. They use outdated equipment, outdated tactics which require them to be professors of war to manage even a simple lateral movement, and were treated like vermin until Daenerys bought them, which was not good for their discipline and effectiveness either. And historically speaking, extreme Unsullied-style training did not create uncommonly good soldiers - so Unsullied are likely to be inferior to Westerosi infantry, let alone Westerosi knights, on individual and group basis alike.

4. Ironborn are only dangerous at sea, and even that is... rather questionable... when facing against the warships rest of Westeros fields. On land, they have no successes to speak of, and they use equipment and tactics which should leave them helpless against Westerosi armies. Their only hope is raiding, and while that can cause some damage, it also can be countered.

Again, I am aware that Martin can write whatever the hell he wants... but if he knows anything about medieval warfare at all, in a clash between Aegon and Daenerys, Daenerys' conventional forces should prove completely useless. The only path to military victory she has are dragons. And that is where we may see "unlimited dragon warfare" employed. Not because she will go mad (as show did), but because she will have no other options left.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

On what do you base the idea that the Westerosi hate former slaves? Barbarians might be despised, but the crucial thing all of that will inspire is fear and respect - and with those things come deference and submission, not resistance. Especially not with the lords who do not only want to keep their heads but also their property.

If Daenerys has the means to crush any resistance and truly annihilate any resistance to her person whatsoever then this is not going to cause the people to fight back, it will motivate them to abandon Aegon and join her. Especially since they would have joined that guy mostly out of opportunism anyway.

In addition, Daenerys' power will offer them support and help in winter and against their own wolves which should plague them by now - Euron and Cersei foremost among them. It should even be more easy if the stories about the Others have reached the people by then.

If Dany emulates Aegon the Conqueror she will win the hearts and minds of people, not their hate.

Westerosi hate slaves and slavery. Daenerys is using slave soldiers. Do you really think average Westerosi will make a distinction of "oh, she liberated them"? To Westerosi, it will look like she massacred the "Good Masters" and then pressed their army into her service. Making her, in essence, just another in long line of slavers.

No, she will not inspire fear and respect. Fear, maybe, but fear often only inspires further resistance. Especially since she will - with actions she will have taken by that point - look like another mad dictator.

Daenerys will have Victarion in tow. To everybody, asking her to help against Euron will look like merely exchanging one Ironborn raider for another.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not really. Only if he were successful as king - which he cannot really be. Not with Euron Greyjoy out there.

 

And why not?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Her family's history isn't a history of brutality, but of power state-building and unification. Westeros was a backwater continent of barbarians living in constant war prior to the Aegon I and Jaehaerys I. It was a mistake to try to live in peace with men who hate her, but this doesn't mean she is going to burn people now and ask questions later. That was never the Targaryen way. And chances that she will be able to burn Slaver's Bay are not that high - her people in Meereen will have to deal with the Meereenese and the Yunkai'i while she is stuck with the Dothraki. Yunkai's fate will be decided long before she returns, as will the fate of Hizdahr and the Green Grace and the Sons fo the Harpy.

I don't expect Dany to be more tyrannical than Aegon the Conqueror. There is nothing wrong within the logic of this world to burn thousands of people to get a crucial point across.

On the other side, though, it is quite clear that Aegon is not the guy who will ever be able to be particularly lenient with people opposing him. He has no true legitimacy as a Targaryen and king - no dragons, and no parentage that can be proved. When people don't buy his story the first time and continue to resist him he will have to crush them. That means he is going to be the guy who cuts out tongues, attaints entire houses, executes entire families, etc. - because he will have no other means to exert his authority. He cannot point to the dragons or his vast army both of which make resistance madness.

The way to have authority in this world is to show what you can do ... but refrain from doing it.

Dany's problem in Meereen was that she wasn't willing to do what it took. She couldn't see the hostages as hostages, she couldn't bring herself to consider to murder all the Meereenese elite (which would be just a couple of hundred people, all things considered, nothing worse than what Aegon I did to Harrenhal). But she has to do that to be successful. But this doesn't mean to turn into Maegor.

And it was a backward continent of barbarians in slightly-less-than-perpetual civil war under Targaryens. Not that Essos is much better... or any better, if we disregard Free Cities such as Braavos.

Now, cynicism aside, Targaryen way heavily depended on a specific Targaryen. Some tried to be idealists - but these mostly got disappointed - while others turned into tyrants. And Daenerys is an idealist with dragons, which is a recipe for mass murder.

Daenerys will be a disappointed idealist. Aegon the Conqueror was not a disappointed idealist, he was merely a conqueror. That is a major difference right there, and good part of a reason why I expect Daenerys might become a tyrant.

Whether Aegon will have to do that will depend - I fully expect some families (such as Lannisters) may end up receiving such a treatment. But keep in mind that many regions - Riverlands, Stormlands, Crownlands, even North - have lost their lords in the war. For them, Aegon will represent hope.

Your last two paragraphs in the quote contradict each other. Anyway, problem with Daenerys is not so much what would have taken for her to be successful, but rather, what not being successful will lead her to. She may well end up a pendulum, from extreme benevolence (which, frankly, she did show at Mereen) to extreme cruelty (again, her vision in the desert, which points to exactly that outcome).

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He still doesn't reward them properly for their service. Just look how he talks with Massey and Horpe. And they are the good apples in his basket, but it is men like Suggs he should be worried about - and the other fanatics in his retinue.

And Stannis isn't a commander who shares everything with his men. He has the tower, not a common tent. And at Storm's End he likely also ate better than the common men and got more rations. Stannis is also a commander who leads from the rear, not the front, his men die for him, not he (possibly) for them.

True. But question isn't whether he is ideal, question is where he stands relative to other Westerosi lords. Do you see Mace Tyrell or Tywin Lannister doing half of what Stannis did?

And "not leading from the front" is not actually a flaw in a commander; it might cause trouble for a Reachman, but fact that Crownlands and Stormlands both appear to be mostly infantry and some light cavalry means that Stannis likely does not have nobles' stupidity code of chivalry to worry about. Ottoman sultans stayed not only in the rear, but in a position which was secured by elite troops and field fortifications. And it worked.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

And we should also note that even Tywin did make more than just a few people angry, and himself despised with many of his actions. But contrary to Aegon he was already in a position where this did not matter that much, being Lord Lannister and first a long-time friend to a king, later the good father to another king.

Yeah, but this kind of thing is something every Hand has to deal with. The other courtiers and the Realm at large seem to start to loathe men who raise to high office and cling it no matter what with regularity because they are preventing them from rising to the top.

But as Lord of Casterly Rock that's not much of an issue, it is, though, if you don't have the wealth and power that comes with being as established as the Lannisters are.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Well, than I have to hope for Cersei to stay long enough to make it count, because I don't know if I can stand another POV from a high-born lady playing silly games.

It doesn't have to be Margaery. Could also be Loras who returns to court in his first or second chapter, or, perhaps more likely, Lady Nym or Tyene Sand. Mace himself could be a great POV, too, since it would be great to see why he is as ambitious as he clearly is, and he doesn't seem to know everything his family is doing to protect him from his follies/help him to get what he wants.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Actually, concerning the former slaves, it's the other way around. While the propaganda against Dany will work pretty well as long as she is in Essos, it would soon start to crumble when the people coming with her start telling their tales about how she freed them, stopped slavery and got the Dothraki to abandon it, too.

And when the "savages" start distributing food even the Dothraki will no longer be (that) feared and hated.

Yeah, with the wealth and food of a good chunk of Essos Dany could easily enough buy herself the crown. She might not even have to fight for it all that much.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

I agree with @Lord Varys here. Imho Varys really isn't interested in power, but in breeding the perfect king to rule wisely and just and in favour of the people. His and Illyrio's interests might collide somewhere, if Aegon is truly Ilyrio's son and turns out to not meet Varys' exceptions, because I agree with both of you, he will ditch him, if Aegon isn't what he expects him to be and can't be influenced by him toward doing the right thing.

I'd only expect that to happen if Aegon is really losing it and making matters worse in his prolonged but inevitable downfall ... and if it becomes clear that Dany is the one to back.

Because, frankly, chances are pretty high that the abomination story of Daenerys Targaryen is, if it is inspired by stuff from the books, mostly Aegon's story, not her own. He is the magical golden boy who is supposed to be the great king who is then going to be cast down. That's not her story in the books, it is his. And just like we won't get two mad queens in Cersei and Dany, we won't get two rulers looking promising only to go down in fire and blood.

Dany won't go to Westeros with the primary desire to conquer, but Aegon already is. He wants the Iron Throne and nothing else. Dany might want to do something else when she finally decides to care about this Westeros.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

If Aegon would just be another King Bob, but with a good and able Small Council set with wise people interested in the common good, I, too, don't think Varys would ditch him. But that ship has imho sailed with Arianne and JonCon. And the other flocking to him will be much worse. Except for maybe Edmure, but I don't really see him coming into action as a Lord that soon to land on Aegon's side (and also because I see Aegon as Jaime's failed attempt at redemption, and I don't see Edmure and Jaime being on the same side that early, in the end, yes, but not yet). Of course there are the wild cards of Willas and the Hightowers in the South, who also might end in Aegon's camp, but I don't know how influential they could be if Arianne does wrap the boy around her finger.

The question of Edmure is interesting, especially since we don't know whether he is going to survive the Prologue and is going to be freed. If he is, then he should play a prominent role in future events.

And, yes, if Jaime ends up in team Aegon as I, too, think he will, then this is not going to help Aegon to gain the allegiance of the Tullys or those Riverlords who continue to stand with them - which certainly won't be all.

But this is an exemplatory scenario how to consider how Aegon might undermine himself - not so much in the battlefield but dealing out rewards after he has taken the Iron Throne. If he were to make Harry Strickland the new Lord of Storm's End (the Baratheons are effectively extinct, so chances are good that he will create a new lordly house for that seat) then this is not going to make him popular with Westerosi nobility, especially in the Stormlands. Marrying Ermesande to one of his followers should work, but if he were to decide to name one of his own men from the Golden Company the new Lord of Rosby, discarding the claims of the men and women who have a right to succeed Lord Gyles, this would not exactly help his popularity all that much.

But the Riverlands are a really interesting scenario in this regard. If the Vale were to declare for him with Littlefinger's support then Aegon likely won't be able to name a new Lord Paramout of the Trident - which is going to be a huge issue with the other Riverlords. Even if Littlefinger were to remain in the Vale, if his castellan, Ser Bonifer Hasty and the Holy Hundred, were to join Aegon, he could not actually punish the Lord of Harrenhal for that, either (despite the fact that Littlefinger never actually appointed Hasty castellan). Then there is the case of Darry - if Aegon confirmed Amerei Frey and Harwyn Plumm as the rulers of Darry because they joined him, then this is not going to make him popular with the Riverlords hating the Freys and Westermen.

And then there is the fact that the Riverlands slowly but surely turn into R'hllor country, with Thoras spreading the faith in the Red God among the smallfolk who support the Brotherhood without Banners. That is eventually going to rise the ire of the Faith, meaning the Faith Militant and Aegon's knights might be dispatched to the Riverlands to 'pacify the region and restore the worship of the Seven'.

Finally, there is the huge question mark of Lady Stoneheart. The revelation that Catelyn Stark is actually alive again although she is dead is going to have a devastating impact on the people of Westeros. She could become an object of divine worship or simply 'the corpse queen of the Riverlands'. If you can survive death people will worship you and follow you no questions asked.

If Aegon were to make an enemy out of Catelyn and her followers it could go very bad for him once all of Westeros knows she is *still alive* - which should take place, I think, when she retakes Riverrun from Emmon and Genna.

There are other blunders imaginable - Aegon giving Starpike to one of his Peakes rather than allowing Lord Titus' sons or other heirs to take it (an interesting scenario if Lord Titus were to die in battle or old age).

As for Arianne, I'd not be surprised if she forces him to agree that they are going to rule jointly  - like Jaehaerys and Alysanne, or better still like the Conqueror and his sister-wives. That is something he might promise if he really falls in love with her and really needs those Dornishmen she is able to bring to him. And as the sample chapters confirm - it will be her decision. She is going to write the letters to the armies which will decide whether Dorne is going to join with this Aegon pretender or not. Her father left that decision to her.

If Aegon were to promise something like that behind closed doors and later had to sell it to his followers it is not going to make him popular. Nobody would want a queen consort who is actually more than just a queen consort.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Exactly. This is _not_ "prince mulled wine", aka Tiberius; Stannis might be inspired by a caricature of the man, but he has none of his redeeming qualities nor his habit to reward loyal and good service (and don't mention Davos, as this one seems to be an exception than you look how Stannis handles his men).

Yes, Stannis has no nice words for any of the men who serve him which, in the end, is going to mean trouble for him when things start to break down and men no longer see any hope in his cause. They won't chain him up and deliver him naked into the enemy camp like they did with Argella, but that's only because the Others don't have any camps. Instead, they might sacrifice him or simply abandon him.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Dragons are connected to magic, and whole point of Targaryen interbreeding was to prevent them from losing their ability to ride dragons.

 

With other Westerosi, there is more than a bit of a problem in the simple fact that he is an Ironborn. Which most of the Westerosi likely know as raiders and pillagers.

And both of them have their own goals; Tyrion is consumed by hate and revenge while Marwyn is a Maester. In other words, if we exclude Ser Barristan, both Aegon and Daenerys will have advisors of the same calibre - people who at best care about idea of them, and at worst do not care about them at all.

As I said, depends on how she presents herself. She is Rhaegar's sister, yes, but she is also Aerys' daughter. People will remember both, and eventually one of those two will dominate the other.

We see how dragons change the way people are seen - during the Dance Daeron was a prince not worthy of being a king because his dragon was too small. If Aegon doesn't have a dragon at all nor a proven Targaryen ancestry than other dragonriders might actually look much more royal than he does - even if they don't have prominent Targaryen looks.

Tyrion as a dragonrider would never bow to Aegon. Especially if he were - or believed he were - the son of the Mad King.

Euron is the Ironborn king who can expect to win other people to his cause because he is actually a capable diplomat when he wants to. Of course he'll do it the American way - speak softly and carry a big club - but that is a voice the Reach lords and others will understand, especially since they have no other option.

Tyrion should be a capable advisor while his and Dany's goals align - and that's going to be the case for most of their time together in Essos, and perhaps even later on. And Marwyn will simple inform Daenerys about her destiny and the true danger Westeros and the world face.

I'd not be surprised at all if Aegon ended up being Aerys' grandson, not Rhaegar's son, whereas Dany turns out to be Rhaegar's sister.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Euron and Cersei will take Lannisters and Ironborn away from Aegon, true. But he may well be able to gain much if not most of the Reach, at least at first, and Vale may also join him.

Even if they do - those are the lords which will first defect to Daenerys because they won't join Aegon because they believe in him at all.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

People complained about burden induced by Byzantine armies - which were typically in 10 000 - 30 000 range - despite the Empire having much better logistical support system than any feudal society should be capable of. In fact, moving armies was such a problem that Byzantine military manuals warn generals against damaging the countryside too much. And as for Thirty Years War, what you wrote is only true if under "dire straits" you mean "exterminated"; areas where armies came through again and again ended up completely depopulated.

The fact just is that Renly's army didn't bother the Reach at all - they could later afford to throw a lot of food at the Kingslanders. Meaning this army cannot have destroyed the countryside nor crippled the food production in the Reach.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

1. Dothraki are a joke, and even actual historical Mongols would not be much of a threat to a 15th-century army such as fielded by... everyone in Westeros but the Starks and the Ironborn, apparently. First Mongol invasion of Hungary faced a kingdom which fielded an army that was predominantly light cavalry, had not fought any serious enemy in quite a while (due to being a local military superpower) and had almost no stone fortifications north of Sava. Westerosi invasion is similar to this situation... except Mongols are Westerosi. They use actual tactics while Dothraki repertoire is rather limited (Mongols used tactics, Hungarians mostly didn't), they have heavy cavalry (Mongols had heavy cavalry, Hungarians mostly didn't), they have stone castles (Hungarians didn't have them). In second invasion, when Hungarians actually had heavy cavalry, used proper battlefield tactics and had stone castles - in other words, when Hungarians acted like Westerosi - Mongols were defeated in short order.

The point is not what in the real world happened, but what the Dothraki are, can do, and historically did in Martinworld. And there they destroyed many of the greatest city states in the world, and continue to threaten the Free Cities of Essos. They are the most powerful military force west of the Bones.

It might not be realistic that they, but that doesn't change what they are.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

2. Volantene tiger soldiers are a city guard, which in Westeros are (or should be) dime-a-dozen. And they are Slaver's Bay city guard. In other words, another army of paper tigers.

What are you talking about? Volantis isn't in Slaver's Bay, it is the First Daughter of Valyria, the greatest Free City and the second most powerful after Braavos. The Volantene tiger soldiers are no city watch, they are a professional standing army and navy under the command of the triarchs and the men the Volantenes of old used to try to conquer the Free Cities as well as the men they use to protect their borders and keep order in their state.

I mean, you do realize that the Volantenes weren't particularly concerned when the Golden Company showed up in their lands, nor were they forced to call on their own ships to get them to Westeros. They had others do that while they prepared for their war in the east.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

3. Unsullied are a joke, tactically and in terms of equipment both. I wrote about it in more detail elsewhere, but to sum up, a) Unsullied which Daenerys brings to Westeros will have lost much of their original discipline and fearlessness due to her being too lax with them, b) even original Unsullied were nothing like what they were cracked up to be. They use outdated equipment, outdated tactics which require them to be professors of war to manage even a simple lateral movement, and were treated like vermin until Daenerys bought them, which was not good for their discipline and effectiveness either. And historically speaking, extreme Unsullied-style training did not create uncommonly good soldiers - so Unsullied are likely to be inferior to Westerosi infantry, let alone Westerosi knights, on individual and group basis alike.

Not sure how any of this is relevant in a discussion about fantasy troops. It is fine of you to know military history, but that doesn't change how George wants his Unsullied to be. The idea that their discipline is going to lessen is something I don't buy for a second, for instance. Instead I expect their belief in Dany's cause is going to increase their fanaticism and their willingness to kill and die in her name. They have found something worth fighting and killing for.

The idea that things are outdated in this world which is chronologically inconsistent insofar as warfare is concerned is also a huge stretch on your part. George's ships work his way, not your way or the real world way.

Aside from general discipline, iron vs. bronze and bows made of special material there is not going to be much difference in warfare.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

4. Ironborn are only dangerous at sea, and even that is... rather questionable... when facing against the warships rest of Westeros fields. On land, they have no successes to speak of, and they use equipment and tactics which should leave them helpless against Westerosi armies. Their only hope is raiding, and while that can cause some damage, it also can be countered.

It won't be countered this time. Once the Redwynes are destroyed the Westerosi coasts will belong to the Ironborn again. The author has made it very clear that only the Redwynes have the strength at sea to challenge them. With them gone, nobody will have the strength to challenge Euron ... while he will kill the economy of the Reach - which the lords and merchants and traders growing rich on international trade won't suffer for a long period of time.

And of course the Ironborn had great successes on land. They conquered all the Riverlands, for instance.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Again, I am aware that Martin can write whatever the hell he wants... but if he knows anything about medieval warfare at all, in a clash between Aegon and Daenerys, Daenerys' conventional forces should prove completely useless. The only path to military victory she has are dragons. And that is where we may see "unlimited dragon warfare" employed. Not because she will go mad (as show did), but because she will have no other options left.

The dragons won't do much damage in winter. Castles and houses caked in snow won't burn. Also, Dany's dragons won't be Aegon's beasts. They won't be able to melt stone or burn down entire castles even in summer. Any of Dany's dragons trying to attack/incinerate a city is very likely to be killed by professional archers - because their armor is not thick enough yet to withstand such attacks.

The idea that the dragons will play a great part in the warfare game is very unlikely at this point. Don't take me wrong, they will look impressive, and their riders will scout and intimidate and threaten people, but we are not going to get a second Harrenhal, much less a dragonfire holocaust of a major city. That won't fly in winter.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Westerosi hate slaves and slavery. Daenerys is using slave soldiers. Do you really think average Westerosi will make a distinction of "oh, she liberated them"? To Westerosi, it will look like she massacred the "Good Masters" and then pressed their army into her service. Making her, in essence, just another in long line of slavers.

That would be a travesty version of what actually happened - could be Aegon is trying to paint it that way, but once the people are there this story is going to evaporate. Even before that this might evaporate because ships will go back and forth between Essos and Westeros long before that

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

No, she will not inspire fear and respect. Fear, maybe, but fear often only inspires further resistance. Especially since she will - with actions she will have taken by that point - look like another mad dictator.

But certainly not worse than Euron or Cersei or Stannis or Aegon - who are all going to look exactly the same way since they will be the people who actually drown Westeros in blood, not the woman who isn't even there yet.

Aegon the Conqueror was also a foreigner but he wasn't vilified for that as far as we know - or if he was tales about that don't survive. He won the hearts and love and respect of his people because he was both stern and lenient.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Daenerys will have Victarion in tow. To everybody, asking her to help against Euron will look like merely exchanging one Ironborn raider for another.

Vic is the main suspect for the first POV death in TWoW - but even if he were to live, chances are about zero that anyone is going to pay him much mind. Her having Tyrion at her side might be a much bigger concern considering what he did/is accused of. Victarion is an obscure younger son from a backwater island.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And why not?

And it was a backward continent of barbarians in slightly-less-than-perpetual civil war under Targaryens. Not that Essos is much better... or any better, if we disregard Free Cities such as Braavos.

There was no 'slightly-less-than-perpetual civil war' under the Targaryens - even the reall big wars only affected a few regions of the united Realm. The Dornish Wars shouldn't have troubled the Westerlands or the Vale in the slightest, just as Ironborn raids in the West or the Reach or the North didn't trouble most of those regions, either (i.e. the people ten leagues or more away from the coastlines). The North and the Vale continued to have trouble with the wildlings and clansmen, but that was so before the Conquest.

What they no longer had were constant major wars among the Seven Kingdoms and constant quarrels between warring lords within those kingdoms.

All things considered Westeros is pretty much a medieval paradise if you ignore the freak seasons. Wars are all very short and only affect the morons who want to fight in them - or the poor people who live near the places where battles take place.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Now, cynicism aside, Targaryen way heavily depended on a specific Targaryen. Some tried to be idealists - but these mostly got disappointed - while others turned into tyrants. And Daenerys is an idealist with dragons, which is a recipe for mass murder.

Maegor and Aegon II were the only tyrants Westeros ever had. Most Targaryens were good or adequate kings, and even many of those who were bad didn't actually rule bad due to their good Hands/council.

Dany is no idealist by Westerosi standards - she just does away with a practice that's seen as barbaric in Westeros. And there is no indication she is going to expect the Westerosi to abandon feudalism or any of that. She knows how the Westerosi system works and never questioned that.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Daenerys will be a disappointed idealist. Aegon the Conqueror was not a disappointed idealist, he was merely a conqueror. That is a major difference right there, and good part of a reason why I expect Daenerys might become a tyrant.

Aegon the Conqueror wasn't just 'a conqueror' - he conquered seven kingdoms (minus Dorne), made them into one, and ruled them justly to the benefit of all.

The person pampered with a special sense of destiny and the delusion he will be praised and cheered as king is Aegon. Dany has no illusion that the Westerosi will welcome her with cheers and all that crap - if her time in Meereen taught her anything than that people who have to be conquered do not necessarily like you.

If she were rejected by some people in Westeros she might punish them harshly, but she won't feel personally insulted by that nor is it going to drive her nuts.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Whether Aegon will have to do that will depend - I fully expect some families (such as Lannisters) may end up receiving such a treatment. But keep in mind that many regions - Riverlands, Stormlands, Crownlands, even North - have lost their lords in the war. For them, Aegon will represent hope.

Yes, but, again - Aegon is going to have to go to war with the rest of Westeros before Dany arrives. She is not going to be the one who destroys this hope - Aegon himself will do that by failing his people.

And the chance that Aegon is actually going to be in charge of things when Dany arrives even in a nominal fashion are not that high. Euron wants the Iron Throne, and he will take it eventually. Aegon won't be able to stop him.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

True. But question isn't whether he is ideal, question is where he stands relative to other Westerosi lords. Do you see Mace Tyrell or Tywin Lannister doing half of what Stannis did?

Neither of them pretend to be a king nor the savior of mankind. But of course both of them are much more popular than Stannis ever was. If they had tried to set themselves up as kings against Stannis then they would have likely gotten more support than Stannis - they wouldn't have gotten as much as Renly, but definitely more than Stannis.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And "not leading from the front" is not actually a flaw in a commander; it might cause trouble for a Reachman, but fact that Crownlands and Stormlands both appear to be mostly infantry and some light cavalry means that Stannis likely does not have nobles' stupidity code of chivalry to worry about. Ottoman sultans stayed not only in the rear, but in a position which was secured by elite troops and field fortifications. And it worked.

Again, we talk in-universe, and there Robert's fame is based in no small part in the fact that he led from the front - as is the fame of Edward IV who is one of the main inspirations for Robert. Stannis is not loved by his men, nor does he love them. He is cold and curt and doesn't have a nice word for any of them, ever. The big eye-opener there is the Theon 1 chapter where Stannis cannot even bring himself to pretend to consider rewarding Justin Massey for his leal service. That is not the way how you bind your men to yourself or your cause.

And this is what you don't seem to get about Euron - he is the exact opposite. He is a raider who takes nothing for himself and gives everything to his people, the men who bleed for him. If he were to take the Arbor, treat the women and children gently, and used the captured wealth to throw gifts and the men of the Reach, offering generous terms in exchange for their submission, and granting them the protection of his long ships for their trade missions then they would likely kiss his feet.

It isn't going to be enough to win the Iron Throne, but he certainly would gain a foothold on the mainland.

[Hodor the Articulate]

15 hours ago, Morte said:

Except for maybe Edmure, but I don't really see him coming into action as a Lord that soon to land on Aegon's side (and also because I see Aegon as Jaime's failed attempt at redemption, and I don't see Edmure and Jaime being on the same side that early, in the end, yes, but not yet). Of course there are the wild cards of Willas and the Hightowers in the South, who also might end in Aegon's camp, but I don't know how influential they could be if Arianne does wrap the boy around her finger.

Willas... interesting. I predict Highgarden won't go for Aegon so long as Mace is alive, because of his beef with the Martells. I don't have a good enough read on Willas to say what he'd do. It could be they'll be too busy dealing with the IB invasion to help out any side.

I'm not sure Edmure will be in a position to do anything. Hasn't he been taken hostage?

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The parallel with the Young Dragon is the one that's the most striking. George even had him use the same words as Daeron I when he addressed the Golden Company. And that's not an accident. I don't think Aegon will make the same type of mistakes as Robb does.

Not the exact same, no, but I expect the basic outline of their journeys to be similar. Early victories, warrior worship, political mistakes, marrying the wrong woman... maybe some internal conflicts in his camp, too. Robb, Ofc Daeron and Robb share plenty of similarities too - the goat paths tactic jumped right out at me when I was working through AWOIAF. Robb, Daeron, and Aegon are clearly cut from the same cloth.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, no, that's really his ultimate goal. We are not likely to see Varys' true face the way we saw it in the Epilogue (unless George gives us Varys' own POV or Illyrio's). He is one of the most misunderstood characters which only makes sense if he really cares about peace and the children and stuff, and uses this Aegon fellow just as a means to an end. A rather complicated plot, to be sure, but one imagines that Aegon is simply Varys' answer to his own riddle.

Hmm... I'm still not convinced. I don't doubt he wants a peaceful realm, but I think he wants it on his terms.

In any case, it will be interesting what happens when Dany discovers the mummer behind the "mummer's dragon".

On 6/10/2020 at 8:25 PM, Aldarion said:

This I actually agree with. But on the flip side, Aegon himself is lot more independent than he used to be, and does not care much for past wrongs and titles.

Independence from whom... Jon? Let's not forget the reason he ignored Jon's advice is because he was manipulated by Tyrion. He's the "mummer's dragon".

I don't know if Aegon cares about past wrongs, but the people around him sure do.

[Aldarion]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We see how dragons change the way people are seen - during the Dance Daeron was a prince not worthy of being a king because his dragon was too small. If Aegon doesn't have a dragon at all nor a proven Targaryen ancestry than other dragonriders might actually look much more royal than he does - even if they don't have prominent Targaryen looks.

Tyrion as a dragonrider would never bow to Aegon. Especially if he were - or believed he were - the son of the Mad King.

First, I do not see why Aegon shouldn't be able to get the dragon, except for not having opportunity to do so.

According to that, he would not bow to Daenerys either. But Tyrion himself would never be accepted as a king, and his first appearance mentions "shadow as large as a king", which I take to mean that he will become a power behind the throne.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron is the Ironborn king who can expect to win other people to his cause because he is actually a capable diplomat when he wants to. Of course he'll do it the American way - speak softly and carry a big club - but that is a voice the Reach lords and others will understand, especially since they have no other option.

They have other option. Ironborn are raiders. They can raid and pillage, but if they try to conquer, that will require fighting on land - and in such conditions, Ironborn will get crushed.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion should be a capable advisor while his and Dany's goals align - and that's going to be the case for most of their time together in Essos, and perhaps even later on. And Marwyn will simple inform Daenerys about her destiny and the true danger Westeros and the world face.

Marwyn is a Red Priest. At best, he will give her unintentional bad advice. At worst, he will try to manipulate her for his own goals.

As for Tyrion, his goal is revenge. He doesn't care about anyone else, and will definitely not be a good advisor to Daenerys.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd not be surprised at all if Aegon ended up being Aerys' grandson, not Rhaegar's son, whereas Dany turns out to be Rhaegar's sister.

 

It is unlikely either one of them will turn out to be good, but frankly, Aegon has less likelyhood of turning violent mass murderer. Daenerys' thoughts in her last chapters clearly point to that direction, whereas all Aegon has displayed so far are naivety and momentary anger. Of course, he is also not so far along, so it could happen; but if it does happen, then you will have two monsters going at each other.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion should be a capable advisor while his and Dany's goals align - and that's going to be the case for most of their time together in Essos, and perhaps even later on. And Marwyn will simple inform Daenerys about her destiny and the true danger Westeros and the world face.

That is theoretically possible if Renly had massive fleet train with him; but I do not recall any mention of such a fleet. Though it is concievable he left it behind when he rode to confront Stannis.

Fact is, army has limited area it can forage from. Animals are used to transport food, and animals also eat food. As a general rule, field army can number 10 000 - 20 000 before it has to either break up, rely on a fleet train, or rely on depots secured far in advance.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Strategic_Situation_of_Europe_1805.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Ulm_campaign_-_Invasion_of_Bavaria_and_French_assembly_on_the_Rhine%2C_2-25_September_1805.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Ulm_campaign_-_French_strategic_envelopment%2C_26_September-9_October_1805.jpg

Last option is possible, if Renly knew for some months already that he will be marching. I am not entirely clear on timeframe there.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is not what in the real world happened, but what the Dothraki are, can do, and historically did in Martinworld. And there they destroyed many of the greatest city states in the world, and continue to threaten the Free Cities of Essos. They are the most powerful military force west of the Bones.

It might not be realistic that they, but that doesn't change what they are.

Or they might be red herring. While Martin's understanding of medieval warfare does leave a lot to be desired, he is not completely clueless (...or so I hope). But even regardless of Martin's military (in)competence, I would not put it past him to build up apparent threat (Unsullied! Dothraki!) only for said threat to turn out to be not so threatening after all.

And he even has some foreshadowing about it: 

After the beast fights came a mock battle, pitting six men on foot against six horsemen, the former armed with shields and longswords, the latter with Dothraki arakhs. The mock knights were clad in mail hauberks, whilst the mock Dothraki wore no armor. At first the riders seemed to have the advantage, riding down two of their foes and slashing the ear from a third, but then the surviving knights began to attack the horses, and one by one the riders were unmounted and slain, to Jhiqui’s great disgust. “That was no true khalasar,” she said.

This may be setting up a retcon of Dothraki, true, but it might also indicate that they truly are not what they are held up to be. "That was no true khalasar" has simply too much of a "No True Scotsman" ring to it.

I guess we will just have to wait and see. As for what Dothraki historically did in Martinworld... they lost against Unsullied because they underestimated infantry. Against Sarnor... well:

- Sarnori had 6 000 chariots, 10 000 heavy cavalry, 10 000 light cavalry and 100 000 infantry against 80 000 Dothraki cavalry. This means that Dothraki actually had military superiority as a force of 80 000 cavalry is much more powerful than 100 000 infantry, especially 100 000 light infantry (slings are not often used by heavy infantry, unless you are Byzantine), and Sarnori had insufficient cavalry of their own

- battle was fought in open, flat plain, making infantry even more useless

- whatever Sarnori cavalry was, it was not comparable to Westerosi cavalry. Historically, war chariots stopped being used when horses became big enough to ride. Fact that Sarnor had war chariots means that their horses were likely too small and cavalry too lightly equipped to be useful in shock combat role. Which means that their "heavy" cavalry could not have been all that heavy - spears and shields maybe, while light cavalry used javelins or bows, but that is all.

Overall, Dothraki claim to military superiority rests on bullying a bunch of Bronze Age city-states. These may have advantage over Westeros in terms of political unity (slavery vs feudalism), but little else. I do see possibility of Dothraki winning against Westerosi, but that depends on a) Dothraki being able to separate Westerosi heavy cavalry from their infantry (likely) and b) Dothraki being able to face Westerosi heavy cavalry in combat (unlikely).

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What are you talking about? Volantis isn't in Slaver's Bay, it is the First Daughter of Valyria, the greatest Free City and the second most powerful after Braavos. The Volantene tiger soldiers are no city watch, they are a professional standing army and navy under the command of the triarchs and the men the Volantenes of old used to try to conquer the Free Cities as well as the men they use to protect their borders and keep order in their state.

I mean, you do realize that the Volantenes weren't particularly concerned when the Golden Company showed up in their lands, nor were they forced to call on their own ships to get them to Westeros. They had others do that while they prepared for their war in the east.

I got confused there because right now Volantene participation in anti-Daenerys coalition is on my mind. But from Tyrion's thoughts, it appears that tiger cloaks as well are slave soldiers.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure how any of this is relevant in a discussion about fantasy troops. It is fine of you to know military history, but that doesn't change how George wants his Unsullied to be. The idea that their discipline is going to lessen is something I don't buy for a second, for instance. Instead I expect their belief in Dany's cause is going to increase their fanaticism and their willingness to kill and die in her name. They have found something worth fighting and killing for.

The idea that things are outdated in this world which is chronologically inconsistent insofar as warfare is concerned is also a huge stretch on your part. George's ships work his way, not your way or the real world way.

Aside from general discipline, iron vs. bronze and bows made of special material there is not going to be much difference in warfare.

The idea that their discipline is already lessening is one George has already introduced in the books. It might not be a major plot point right now, but I do not see it being abandoned either.

And fanaticism =/= discipline. If discipline slackens, Unsullied willingness to kill and die for Daenerys can easily be used against them. While Westerosi may be too stupid honourable to do something like that, Golden Company (which, at 10 000 strong, appears to be intended as a direct counterpart to Daenerys' Unsullied) should be able to exploit it. And even if it doesn't, they will walk straight over Unsullied.

Consider this:

"Eight thousand fully trained and available at present. We sell them only by the unit, she should know. By the thousand or the century. Once we sold by the ten, as household guards, but that proved unsound. Ten is too few. They mingle with other slaves, even freemen, and forget who and what they are." - ASOS, Chapter 23

And we see this process happening:
“… drawn in blood.” Daenerys knew the way of it by now. The Sons of the Harpy did their
butchery by night, and over each kill they left their mark. “Grey Worm, why was this man alone? Had he
no partner?” By her command, when the Unsullied walked the streets of Meereen by night they always
walked in pairs.
“My queen,” replied the captain, “your servant Stalwart Shield had no duty last night. He had
gone to a … a certain place … to drink, and have companionship.”
“A certain place? What do you mean?”
“A house of pleasure, Your Grace.”
A brothel. Half of her freedmen were from Yunkai, where the Wise Masters had been famed for
training bedslaves. The way of the seven sighs. Brothels had sprouted up like mushrooms all over
Meereen. It is all they know. They need to survive. Food was more costly every day, whilst the price of
flesh grew cheaper. In the poorer districts between the stepped pyramids of Meereen’s slaver nobility,
there were brothels catering to every conceivable erotic taste, she knew. Even so … “What could a
eunuch hope to find in a brothel?”
“Even those who lack a man’s parts may still have a man’s heart, Your Grace,” said Grey Worm.
“This one has been told that your servant Stalwart Shield sometimes gave coin to the women of the
brothels to lie with him and hold him.”
The blood of the dragon does not weep. “Stalwart Shield,” she said, dry-eyed. “That was his
name?”
- ADWD, Chapter 2

This goes directly against what salesmen told Daenerys:

Not so our Unsullied. They are wed to their swords in a way that your Sworn Brothers cannot hope to match. No woman can ever tempt them, nor any man.

Militaries all through time and all over the world have noticed that troops which are used constantly in low-intensity operations (security, patrol, COIN) gradually lose their effectiveness in a battlefield clash, as their training changes, their methods change and their mentality changes as well. And that is precisely what Unsullied had been, and are, going through. Moreover, name of that Unsullied is by itself indicative: Stalwart Shield; Unsullied are no longer stalwart.

I can easily see Unsullied going against the Golden Company and being not defeated, not slaughtered, but broken. Running away, as Unsullied never did in history. Fact is, they are losing their discipline - which is their one, only, advantage over Westerosi infantry. (And forgetting discipline, and on meta level, Unsullied are based on a combination of Sumeran and Greek phalanx, while Golden Company is based on Macedonian phalanx of Alexander the Great - which was also utilized by Hannibal Barca. You know how contests between the two went - not good for the Greeks).

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It won't be countered this time. Once the Redwynes are destroyed the Westerosi coasts will belong to the Ironborn again. The author has made it very clear that only the Redwynes have the strength at sea to challenge them. With them gone, nobody will have the strength to challenge Euron ... while he will kill the economy of the Reach - which the lords and merchants and traders growing rich on international trade won't suffer for a long period of time.

And of course the Ironborn had great successes on land. They conquered all the Riverlands, for instance.

Once Redwynes are destroyed, Ironborn will be able to raid at will. But Muslim navies and corsairs had raided European shores at will from 7th to 16th centuries, and during some periods raiding was so intense that it led to near-permanent depopulation of coasts. Yet they never made any lasting conquests - all conquests they did make were done by land-based armies, sometimes transported by fleet but always fighting on land.

And do we know how Ironborn conquered Riverlands? I can easily see it being a combination of raiding and diplomacy.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragons won't do much damage in winter. Castles and houses caked in snow won't burn. Also, Dany's dragons won't be Aegon's beasts. They won't be able to melt stone or burn down entire castles even in summer. Any of Dany's dragons trying to attack/incinerate a city is very likely to be killed by professional archers - because their armor is not thick enough yet to withstand such attacks.

The idea that the dragons will play a great part in the warfare game is very unlikely at this point. Don't take me wrong, they will look impressive, and their riders will scout and intimidate and threaten people, but we are not going to get a second Harrenhal, much less a dragonfire holocaust of a major city. That won't fly in winter.

Which would leave it to conventional forces, where Daenerys should - unless she manages to get Westerosi support nearly equal to Aegon's - be completely helpless.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragons won't do much damage in winter. Castles and houses caked in snow won't burn. Also, Dany's dragons won't be Aegon's beasts. They won't be able to melt stone or burn down entire castles even in summer. Any of Dany's dragons trying to attack/incinerate a city is very likely to be killed by professional archers - because their armor is not thick enough yet to withstand such attacks.

The idea that the dragons will play a great part in the warfare game is very unlikely at this point. Don't take me wrong, they will look impressive, and their riders will scout and intimidate and threaten people, but we are not going to get a second Harrenhal, much less a dragonfire holocaust of a major city. That won't fly in winter.

"Travesty version of what actuall happened" is par for the course, in both real life and Westeros. Aegon most likely won't have to do any "painting" himself. And it might well turn out to not be that incorrect, depending on how Daenerys develops further.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But certainly not worse than Euron or Cersei or Stannis or Aegon - who are all going to look exactly the same way since they will be the people who actually drown Westeros in blood, not the woman who isn't even there yet.

Aegon the Conqueror was also a foreigner but he wasn't vilified for that as far as we know - or if he was tales about that don't survive. He won the hearts and love and respect of his people because he was both stern and lenient.

Daenerys' character development in last chapters means that "stern and lenient" is a far-off hope with her in the future. Stern, definitely, but not lenient. And yes, she likely will be worse than at least latter two of the people you listed.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What they no longer had were constant major wars among the Seven Kingdoms and constant quarrels between warring lords within those kingdoms.

All things considered Westeros is pretty much a medieval paradise if you ignore the freak seasons. Wars are all very short and only affect the morons who want to fight in them - or the poor people who live near the places where battles take place.

Actually, wars in Westeros may be rarer, but they are also much more massive and more damaging than was the case in actual Middle Ages. It is less that Westeros is a "medieval paradise" and more that "Middle Ages were a paradise compared to Westeros". And Westeros is a paradise compared to much of Essos...

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Maegor and Aegon II were the only tyrants Westeros ever had. Most Targaryens were good or adequate kings, and even many of those who were bad didn't actually rule bad due to their good Hands/council.

Dany is no idealist by Westerosi standards - she just does away with a practice that's seen as barbaric in Westeros. And there is no indication she is going to expect the Westerosi to abandon feudalism or any of that. She knows how the Westerosi system works and never questioned that.

She tried to do away with barbaric practice, but we see that she is too impatient to do it properly. She already has managed to make massive improvements in situation, yet she doesn't see it as such because she thinks it is not enough. I don't feel like typing it all out - there are many supporting citations I would have to search for - but there is a good analysis here which luckily makes all my points for me:

https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/10/05/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-iv-a-darker-daenerys/

But in short, Daenerys ends up despising peace and the compromises she was forced to make because changes do not come quickly enough. And this despite the fact that they are happening much more quickly than one could reasonably expect. She is also becoming mistrustful, paranoid and hateful.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon the Conqueror wasn't just 'a conqueror' - he conquered seven kingdoms (minus Dorne), made them into one, and ruled them justly to the benefit of all.

The person pampered with a special sense of destiny and the delusion he will be praised and cheered as king is Aegon. Dany has no illusion that the Westerosi will welcome her with cheers and all that crap - if her time in Meereen taught her anything than that people who have to be conquered do not necessarily like you.

If she were rejected by some people in Westeros she might punish them harshly, but she won't feel personally insulted by that nor is it going to drive her nuts.

Actually, that is pretty much what she expects. Or at least, expected. It is entirely likely that her Meereen experience will have taught her that the only way to rule is with "fire and blood", as her hallucinations indicate. She will have swung like a pendulum, and her campaign in Westeros will be nowhere as humane as you think it will be.

It won't drive her nuts, because her experiences in Mereen and in the grassland will have driven her nuts long before she came to Westeros. Dragons plant no trees.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but, again - Aegon is going to have to go to war with the rest of Westeros before Dany arrives. She is not going to be the one who destroys this hope - Aegon himself will do that by failing his people.

And the chance that Aegon is actually going to be in charge of things when Dany arrives even in a nominal fashion are not that high. Euron wants the Iron Throne, and he will take it eventually. Aegon won't be able to stop him.

Maybe, maybe not. We will see; but his campaigns need not be extraordinarily bloody.

Euron is an overrated idiot, most likely.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, we talk in-universe, and there Robert's fame is based in no small part in the fact that he led from the front - as is the fame of Edward IV who is one of the main inspirations for Robert. Stannis is not loved by his men, nor does he love them. He is cold and curt and doesn't have a nice word for any of them, ever. The big eye-opener there is the Theon 1 chapter where Stannis cannot even bring himself to pretend to consider rewarding Justin Massey for his leal service. That is not the way how you bind your men to yourself or your cause.

And this is what you don't seem to get about Euron - he is the exact opposite. He is a raider who takes nothing for himself and gives everything to his people, the men who bleed for him. If he were to take the Arbor, treat the women and children gently, and used the captured wealth to throw gifts and the men of the Reach, offering generous terms in exchange for their submission, and granting them the protection of his long ships for their trade missions then they would likely kiss his feet.

It isn't going to be enough to win the Iron Throne, but he certainly would gain a foothold on the mainland.

I never doubted that Euron is good towards his men, but I simply do not see him treating mainlanders in such a way. And even if he did, he is still Ironborn - nobody would take easily to his rule.

7 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Independence from whom... Jon? Let's not forget the reason he ignored Jon's advice is because he was manipulated by Tyrion. He's the "mummer's dragon".

I don't know if Aegon cares about past wrongs, but the people around him sure do.

I'm not sure he was manipulated by Tyrion, at least not to the extent that most people think. Fact is, he said nothing until it became obvious that eastern road is closed to Golden Company - and then he used Tyrion's advice to turn them west. It might be that he truly bought Tyrion's advice, but it might also be that he simply used it to prevent losing Golden Company alltogether - it was rather obvious that both officers and rank-and-file of Golden Company were already sick of waiting for Daenerys. If he had not acted then, he might not have had army at all soon. It might also be a combination of those two scenarios.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Morte]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mace himself could be a great POV, too, since it would be great to see why he is as ambitious as he clearly is, and he doesn't seem to know everything his family is doing to protect him from his follies/help him to get what he wants.

I agree. Mace would make a great POV, too. Essentially I hope that a Tyrell-POV would also sheet some light on who truly hatched the plan to crown Renly, as I still think he did need more than just a little push to get the notion to do this (but I know we might disagree here ).

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because, frankly, chances are pretty high that the abomination story of Daenerys Targaryen is, if it is inspired by stuff from the books, mostly Aegon's story, not her own. He is the magical golden boy who is supposed to be the great king who is then going to be cast down. That's not her story in the books, it is his. And just like we won't get two mad queens in Cersei and Dany, we won't get two rulers looking promising only to go down in fire and blood.

Dany won't go to Westeros with the primary desire to conquer, but Aegon already is. He wants the Iron Throne and nothing else. Dany might want to do something else when she finally decides to care about this Westeros.

Agree. It would also fit quite well as deconstruction of Aragon, as the rightful, wise and just king, raised and educated in secrecy.

Martin could of course still go the route of the abomination with Dany, but then his work would just be a very misogynous and cliché standard fantasy work we shouldn't have invested in. Still might happen, but I hope not.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure how any of this is relevant in a discussion about fantasy troops. It is fine of you to know military history, but that doesn't change how George wants his Unsullied to be. The idea that their discipline is going to lessen is something I don't buy for a second, for instance. Instead I expect their belief in Dany's cause is going to increase their fanaticism and their willingness to kill and die in her name. They have found something worth fighting and killing for.

Agree. For the Unsullied being freed by Dany is like if their goddess had come to their rescue herself.

In fact, I wonder whether the Unsullied arrival in Westeros might change the way the Maid (or the Mother) is seen in the long run (if Bonifer and his holy hundred might end up with Dany in the long run, for example), as till now the Warrior is holding all of military proneness within the Seven, but the Lady of Spears seems to be something between Athena and Ishtar.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragons won't do much damage in winter. Castles and houses caked in snow won't burn. Also, Dany's dragons won't be Aegon's beasts. They won't be able to melt stone or burn down entire castles even in summer. Any of Dany's dragons trying to attack/incinerate a city is very likely to be killed by professional archers - because their armor is not thick enough yet to withstand such attacks.

The idea that the dragons will play a great part in the warfare game is very unlikely at this point. Don't take me wrong, they will look impressive, and their riders will scout and intimidate and threaten people, but we are not going to get a second Harrenhal, much less a dragonfire holocaust of a major city. That won't fly in winter.

Agree. They are juvenile now, just big enough to be ridden by someone as light and small as Dany. Even Drogon might not be able to carry a big person on his back (not talking about carrying prey in his claws, that's something entirely different; but he doesn't carry that horse to his nest either).

They might be crucial against things very vulnerable to fire, like the ice-zombies and their masters, but not against frozen and snow-covered structures. And I think even against the Others the other magic-users and the armies will be needed because the dragons aren't that strong now. We aren't talking about Balerion here, who would have made the entire Others-problem a joke just by himself.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But this is an exemplatory scenario how to consider how Aegon might undermine himself - not so much in the battlefield but dealing out rewards after he has taken the Iron Throne. If he were to make Harry Strickland the new Lord of Storm's End (the Baratheons are effectively extinct, so chances are good that he will create a new lordly house for that seat) then this is not going to make him popular with Westerosi nobility, especially in the Stormlands. Marrying Ermesande to one of his followers should work, but if he were to decide to name one of his own men from the Golden Company the new Lord of Rosby, discarding the claims of the men and women who have a right to succeed Lord Gyles, this would not exactly help his popularity all that much.

Essentially, Aegon can't do anything regarding giving lands and rights without also antagonizing someone. And while this is also true for Dany, she will be so late to the party, that the people coming to her first will be the one who have been already antagonized by Aegon, so she will not have (and will not be able) to choose.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As for Arianne, I'd not be surprised if she forces him to agree that they are going to rule jointly  - like Jaehaerys and Alysanne, or better still like the Conqueror and his sister-wives. That is something he might promise if he really falls in love with her and really needs those Dornishmen she is able to bring to him. And as the sample chapters confirm - it will be her decision. She is going to write the letters to the armies which will decide whether Dorne is going to join with this Aegon pretender or not. Her father left that decision to her.

If Aegon were to promise something like that behind closed doors and later had to sell it to his followers it is not going to make him popular. Nobody would want a queen consort who is actually more than just a queen consort.

I don't see the more-than-just-a-consort-thing being the problem, but more the facts of a) the position itself (Strickland is already not convinced about Aegon, if the boy blows the idea of marriage to Dany, he might think even further - especially if Aegon would start strange rumours about Dany the GC knows not being true...), b) her being Dornish (for many of the Reach- and Marcher-Lords), and c) how she got into that position (the whole misogynistic crap about the boy being ruled by his cock).

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Then there is the case of Darry - if Aegon confirmed Amerei Frey and Harwyn Plumm as the rulers of Darry because they joined him, then this is not going to make him popular with the Riverlords hating the Freys and Westermen.

This would also gain Dany some allies in the West, as there is another Darry-daughter who would have liked her daddy's seat for herself and her sons.

1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I'm not sure Edmure will be in a position to do anything. Hasn't he been taken hostage?

He was, and he's on his way to the Rock, whether he does survive a rescue-attempt or arrives there, we hopefully will see in TWoW... But I too don't see him in action that soon; I think he might end in Dany's camp though some detours, but even that would be a looong way to go from where we left him.

58 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Marwyn is a Red Priest. At best, he will give her unintentional bad advice. At worst, he will try to manipulate her for his own goals.

Hu? Where did you get that from? Benerro is the Red Priest on his way to Dany, and she has been warned against him by Quaite, so she will be caution about him.

Marwyn is "just" the Archmaester for Arcane studies; his motives to go to Dany are imho a) curiosity and b) doing Aemon's binding and c) making sure the dragons don't fall victim to the Citadel on arrival in Westeros.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Or they might be red herring.

So all of Dany's forces are red herrings, so she will be easily beaten and turned mad and a conveniently easy opponent for Aegon...

While Aegon's GC is of course just super-realistic and will have an realistic(!) easy stand against a 20-50.000 man host of what you think is an early-modern army. Okay.

Aren't you doing the same thing, the people who think Aegon will be an easy match for Dany are doing, here?

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

I can easily see Unsullied going against the Golden Company and being not defeated, not slaughtered, but broken. Running away, as Unsullied never did in history. Fact is, they are losing their discipline - which is their one, only, advantage over Westerosi infantry. (And forgetting discipline, and on meta level, Unsullied are based on a combination of Sumeran and Greek phalanx, while Golden Company is based on Macedonian phalanx of Alexander the Great - which was also utilized by Hannibal Barca. You know how contests between the two went - not good for the Greeks).

One can just as easily see the battle between the GC and the Unsullied ending like Zama, because as I thought we have already agreed on, Martin will make the Unsullied what he wants them to be.

If we wants the Unsullied to act and work like the Legions, they will. If he wants to show Mohi or Liegnitz, we will see them. Just as we will see a combination of Trebia and Azincourt with the GC and Mace in TWoW, or Euron defeating the Redwynes with his longships, or Aurane's dromons making a difference against carracks... Martin doesn't care, but at least he doesn't care either way, not only in the direction of his favourite pets - something one can't say about the majority of the community, sadly.

[frenin]

50 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

And do we know how Ironborn conquered Riverlands? I can easily see it being a combination of raiding and diplomacy.

They conquered the Riverlands due to.

1.  Harwyn Hoare NOT being your average Ironborn, Hoare actually knew how to fight and lead on land since he  spent a good deal of his life being a sellsword. Euron, for all he claims to be, has never fought on land.

 

Quote

His son Harwyn had no use for peace, but much and more for the arms and armor that his father forged. A belligerent boy by all accounts, and third in the succession, Harwyn Hoare was sent to sea at an early age. He sailed with a succession of reavers in the Stepstones, visited Volantis, Tyrosh, and Braavos, became a man in the pleasure gardens of Lys, spent two years in the Basilisk Isles as a captive of a pirate king, sold his sword to a free company in the Disputed Lands, and fought in several battles as a Second Son.

 

In those days, the ironborn were thought to be savage fighters at sea but easily put to rout on land. But Harwyn Hoare was not like other ironborn. Tempered in the Disputed Lands, he proved to be as fierce afoot as he was at sea, routing every foe. After he dealt the Blackwoods a crushing defeat, many lords of the Trident declared for him.

 

2. And arguably the most important.   The total disloyalty and desunity of the Riverlords and Riverlanders,

 

Quote

When the new king visited his father’s shipyards, he declared that “longships are meant to be sailed.” When he inspected the royal armories, he announced that, “swords are made to be blooded.” King Qhorwyn had oft said that weakness invites attack. When his son gazed across Ironman’s Bay, he saw only weakness and confusion in the riverlands, where the lords of the Trident chafed restlessly beneath the heel of the Storm King, Arrec Durrandon, in distant Storm’s End.

Harwyn assembled a host and led it across the bay on a hundred of his father’s longships. Landing unchallenged north of Seagard, they carried their ships overland to the Blue Fork of the Trident, then swept downstream with fire and sword. A few of the river lords took up arms against them; most did not, for they had little love and less loyalty for their liege lord in the stormlands.

As the ironborn moved up and down the rivers, reaving and raiding as they pleased, the riverlords fell back before them or took shelter in their castles, unwilling to risk battle in the name of a king many of them reviled.

As he[King Arrec] fled south, the smallfolk of the riverlands rose up, and his garrisons were driven out or slaughtered. The broad, fertile riverlands and all their wealth passed from the hands of Storm’s End to those of the ironmen.

 

Lord Tully abandoned Riverrun without a fight, fleeing with all his strength to join the host gathering at Raventree Hall under Lady Agnes Blackwood and her sons. But when Lady Agnes advanced upon the ironborn, her belligerent neighbor Lord Lothar Bracken fell upon her rear with all his strength and put her men to flight. [...] The rout of Lady Blackwood’s host spelled the end of the riverlords’ resistance to the ironborn

 

So eager was this young king to come to grips with the ironmen that he soon outpaced his own baggage train—a grievous mistake, as Arrec learned when he crossed the Blackwater and found every castle shut against him and neither food nor fodder to be found, only burning towns and blackened fields.
Many of the riverlords had joined the ironmen by then. Under the command of the Lords Goodbrook, Paege, and Vypren, they slipped across the Blackwater and fell upon the slow-moving baggage train before it reached the river, putting King Arrec’s rear guard to flight and seizing his supplies.

 

3. The Stormlords were ill led, ill fed and overall ill.

 

Quote

So eager was this young king to come to grips with the ironmen that he soon outpaced his own baggage train—a grievous mistake, as Arrec learned when he crossed the Blackwater and found every castle shut against him and neither food nor fodder to be found, only burning towns and blackened fields.
Many of the riverlords had joined the ironmen by then. Under the command of the Lords Goodbrook, Paege, and Vypren, they slipped across the Blackwater and fell upon the slow-moving baggage train before it reached the river, putting King Arrec’s rear guard to flight and seizing his supplies.

 

Thus it was a stumbling, starving host of stormlanders who finally faced Harwyn Hardhand at Fairmarket, where Lothar Bracken, Theo Charlton, and a score of other riverlords had joined him. King Arrec had half again as many fighters as his foes, but his men were weary from days of marching, confused and dispirited, and their king soon showed himself to be both headstrong and indecisive. When battle was joined, the result was a shattering defeat for the stormlanders. Arrec himself escaped the carnage, but two of his brothers died in the fighting, and the rule of Storm’s End over the lands of the Trident came to a sudden, bloody end

 

 

4. The Riverlands give the Ironmen an incredible advantage

 

Quote

The importance of the Trident to the region was never made clearer then when King Harwyn Hoare, the grandfather of Harren the Black, fought over the riverlands with the Storm King Arrec. The ironborn reavers were able to achieve dominance on the rivers and use them as a means to transport forces swiftly between far-flung strongholds and battlefields. The Storm King suffered his worst defeat at the crossing of the Blue Fork near Fairmarket, where the longships proved decisive in allowing the ironborn to seize the crossing despite Arrec’s superior numbers.

 

The Ironmen conquest was rare and something that will not happen again unless all those circumstances somehow met again. The Reach even now should have at least twice the Ironborn forces, they are fighting in their turfand they are led by Garlan.

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

But in short, Daenerys ends up despising peace and the compromises she was forced to make because changes do not come quickly enough. And this despite the fact that they are happening much more quickly than one could reasonably expect. She is also becoming mistrustful, paranoid and hateful.

Don't really think so, the peace was a farse and her poisonig proves it.

 

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

I never doubted that Euron is good towards his men, but I simply do not see him treating mainlanders in such a way. And even if he did, he is still Ironborn - nobody would take easily to his rule.

Ditto.

 

 

20 minutes ago, Morte said:

The importance of the Trident to the region was never made clearer then when King Harwyn Hoare, the grandfather of Harren the Black, fought over the riverlands with the Storm King Arrec. The ironborn reavers were able to achieve dominance on the rivers and use them as a means to transport forces swiftly between far-flung strongholds and battlefields. The Storm King suffered his worst defeat at the crossing of the Blue Fork near Fairmarket, where the longships proved decisive in allowing the ironborn to seize the crossing despite Arrec’s superior numbers.

Because...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Morte]

51 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

1 hour ago, Morte said:

The importance of the Trident to the region was never made clearer then when King Harwyn Hoare, the grandfather of Harren the Black, fought over the riverlands with the Storm King Arrec. The ironborn reavers were able to achieve dominance on the rivers and use them as a means to transport forces swiftly between far-flung strongholds and battlefields. The Storm King suffered his worst defeat at the crossing of the Blue Fork near Fairmarket, where the longships proved decisive in allowing the ironborn to seize the crossing despite Arrec’s superior numbers.

Because...

Hu? Sorry, but I don't understand to which part of my posting you do answer here, as I did not write this *confused*

[Aldarion]

5 hours ago, Morte said:

Hu? Where did you get that from? Benerro is the Red Priest on his way to Dany, and she has been warned against him by Quaite, so she will be caution about him.

Marwyn is "just" the Archmaester for Arcane studies; his motives to go to Dany are imho a) curiosity and b) doing Aemon's binding and c) making sure the dragons don't fall victim to the Citadel on arrival in Westeros.

Right.

5 hours ago, Morte said:

So all of Dany's forces are red herrings, so she will be easily beaten and turned mad and a conveniently easy opponent for Aegon...

Not all. Presumably she will be able to gain support in Westeros. But both Dothraki and Unsullied had been praised as some of best troops in the world, but longer one looks, less sense that makes.

5 hours ago, Morte said:

While Aegon's GC is of course just super-realistic and will have an realistic(!) easy stand against a 20-50.000 man host of what you think is an early-modern army. Okay.

Aren't you doing the same thing, the people who think Aegon will be an easy match for Dany are doing, here?

Thing with Golden Company is that in their first field battle (if that is what you are referring to) they will be facing Tyrell army... under Mace Tyrell. If this were literally any other setup, I would argue that Golden Company will likely get wiped out in the field, or, at best, face a hard-fought battle. But this is actually perfect for them.

1) Tyrell kingdom - Reach - is noted to be birthplace of chivalry (which is, in essence, codified stupidity). We see this confirmed in the fact that they rely on heavy cavalry charge as their primary tool. It often works, true - as it did against Stannis - but it is indicative of lack of tactical flexibility. Their tactical approach is the same idiocy which caused Franco-Burgundian blunder at Nicopolis. Literally only group with less flexibility are the Unsullied - even Dothraki are more flexible than what we have seen from Tyrell forces (though Reach could, in theory, be more flexible - they just choose not to). On the opposite side, Golden Company is a combined-arms outfit which has pikemen, archers and elephants - essentially a perfect counter for heavy-cavalry-dominated Tyrell host. It would be different if Tyrells had Hungarian-style army combining heavy cavalry, mounted crossbowmen and light cavalry (light lancers, mounted archers and hussars), but they don't. Or at least we have seen no evidence of it existing.

2) Tyrell army is likely to be commanded by Mace Tyrell - there is a reason why he was given a) overinflated opinion of himself as a military commander and b) is present at that council when Cersei seeks someone to take care of the Golden Company. He was being set up for defeat from the very beginning.

6 hours ago, Morte said:

One can just as easily see the battle between the GC and the Unsullied ending like Zama, because as I thought we have already agreed on, Martin will make the Unsullied what he wants them to be.

If we wants the Unsullied to act and work like the Legions, they will. If he wants to show Mohi or Liegnitz, we will see them. Just as we will see a combination of Trebia and Azincourt with the GC and Mace in TWoW, or Euron defeating the Redwynes with his longships, or Aurane's dromons making a difference against carracks... Martin doesn't care, but at least he doesn't care either way, not only in the direction of his favourite pets - something one can't say about the majority of the community, sadly.

He could. But he will have to make some rather large logical jumps to do so - Unsullied have all the flexibility of a Greek phalanx, whereas Golden Company appears to be based on Macedonian phalanx. Specifically, on phalanx of Hannibal Barca.

BTW, at Mohi, Hungarians nearly won. And this was despite having a) very small proportion of heavy cavalry in their army compared to Western European forces and b) Mongols themselves having very good heavy cavalry. Comparing them to forces at Mohi, Westerosi would be significantly improved version of Hungarians (greater proportion of heavy cavalry, actually useful infantry, crossbows, plate armour), while Dothraki are significantly handicapped version of Mongols (no heavy cavalry ever mentioned, likewise no capability for military engineering - though latter may not be true). Any such situation will end up in Dothraki being slaughtered.

6 hours ago, frenin said:

They conquered the Riverlands due to.

 

Thanks.

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Don't really think so, the peace was a farse and her poisonig proves it.

Not really. We do not even know who poisoned her. What we do know is that there were people unhappy with peace - such as Shavepate. He is the one who had the motive. By that point, Hizdahr and his faction had gotten most of what they had wanted, and poisoning would have only set them back as Dany's supporters are much stronger. 

So no, I do not think the peace was a farse. The poisoning, however, was.

[frenin]

6 hours ago, Morte said:

Hu? Sorry, but I don't understand to which part of my posting you do answer here, as I did not write this *confused*

Sorry lately the forum is going wrong. I was referring to the if Dany goes mad is a bad story.

 

 

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Not really. We do not even know who poisoned her. What we do know is that there were people unhappy with peace - such as Shavepate. He is the one who had the motive. By that point, Hizdahr and his faction had gotten most of what they had wanted, and poisoning would have only set them back as Dany's supporters are much stronger. 

So no, I do not think the peace was a farse. The poisoning, however, was.

And yet they were attacking her and so were the slave league too.

[Morte]

7 minutes ago, frenin said:

Sorry lately the forum is going wrong. I was referring to the if Dany goes mad is a bad story.

Thanks for the clarification.

As I said, first it would be a fantasy cliché troupe, second, as @Lord Varys pointed out, we already have a mad queen, having two would be a little too much, and third it is something everyone is expecting her to do in-world because of her father.

[frenin]

45 minutes ago, Morte said:

Thanks for the clarification.

As I said, first it would be a fantasy cliché troupe, second, as @Lord Varys pointed out, we already have a mad queen, having two would be a little too much, and third it is something everyone is expecting her to do in-world because of her father.

Why?? Dany's journey is unique and so far she'd be the only crazy female Targ,  Cersei is paranoid not so much crazy.

And the third... Is the subversion meme...

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Willas... interesting. I predict Highgarden won't go for Aegon so long as Mace is alive, because of his beef with the Martells. I don't have a good enough read on Willas to say what he'd do. It could be they'll be too busy dealing with the IB invasion to help out any side.

Willas got along with Oberyn Martell splendidly, according to Oberyn himself, at least, so unless the Dornish don't attack the Reach for some reason, we can be reasonably sure that a Lord Willas would not want to attack the Dornishmen. But I see Willas more in camp Daenerys eventually than in camp Aegon, to be honest. He is an unmarried so far, and could eventually offer his own hand to Daenerys if she were to come as a widow to Westeros - or if she were to mimic Aegon and Maegor in the sense that she is taking multiple consorts.

Mace's own take in the Aegon thing will depend on how long Tommen/Myrcella are going to work as figureheads for him to cling to power. If they would lose legitimacy very fast - say, by being declared bastards by the Faith or via a public confession of Jaime Lannister or both - then he might have no other choice but to join Aegon. The same would be true if he were defeated in battle and subsequently captured.

However, the animosity between the Reach and the Dornishmen - as well as the animosity between the Stormlanders and the Dornishmen - certainly could help destabilize Aegon's reign if he were to marry Arianne Martell. Aegon's Stormlanders, Reach men, and Dornishmen might have a common cause in overthrowing the Lannister regime, but their alliance might quickly fray once they realize that they have nothing in common besides that - and don't like *their Targaryen king* to shower the other factions with favors they think they are deserving themselves.

Keep in mind that Aegon is also Elia Martell's son - even if it turned out that he is not going to marry Arianne (which is very unlikely) - he is half-Dornish himself and would likely want to favor them even if he wasn't also marrying a Dornish princess. But if he marries Arianne we can expect that he is going to staff his new council and court with a lot of Dornishmen, especially since Doran's two armies will make up the bulk of his strength.

This could easily cause Aegon to be seen as another Daeron II with Daenerys providing providing the much desired 'Daemon Blackfyre antidote' - successful this time.

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I'm not sure Edmure will be in a position to do anything. Hasn't he been taken hostage?

George has let it slip that Jeyne Westerling is going to feature in the TWoW Prologue. We have no idea who the POV will be, but we do know that Edmure is part of Jeyne's group of hostages/Westermen that are being escorted to Casterly Rock by Ser Forley Prester.

Since the Prologue/Epilogue characters usually die, it stands to reason that this Prologue is going to feature an attack of the Brotherhood without Banners and/or allied Riverlords on Presters host to free the hostages during which said Prologue POV is going to die (if I had to guess I'd say Forley Prester will be the POV). If Edmure is freed during this attempt he could become a rather important player in TWoW.

But we should not get our hopes up since Jaime has commanded Prester to station archers around Jeyne and Edmure both and kill them if there is going to be a rescue attempt rather than allowing them to flee. So both of them could be killed rather than freed - and in case of Jeyne Westerling and her mother chances are also not that bad that Lady Stoneheart would want to put them down, too, rather than save them, considering she must have figured out by now that the Westerlings were conspiring with the Lannisters against the Starks.

Her own brother the zombie Catelyn is likely not going to try to kill - at least I think she won't.

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Not the exact same, no, but I expect the basic outline of their journeys to be similar. Early victories, warrior worship, political mistakes, marrying the wrong woman... maybe some internal conflicts in his camp, too. Robb, Ofc Daeron and Robb share plenty of similarities too - the goat paths tactic jumped right out at me when I was working through AWOIAF. Robb, Daeron, and Aegon are clearly cut from the same cloth.

Yeah, Robb certainly modelled himself on and was seen as a king like Daeron I, which is seen in the name the people gave him, the Young Wolf and all that. And it seems that both Jon Snow and Robb Stark really admired the Young Dragon, etc.

But Aegon's story is going to be much different than Robb's or Daeron's. Robb isn't much like the Young Dragon in the sense that he never actually conquered anything, he actually lost his homeland (or huge portions of it), he is that way in the sense that he won all the battles he fought in at a very early age. But he was a much worse politician than Daeron I ever was. Daeron I made crucial mistakes in his management of Dorne after his conquest, but he never antagonized his own people. His crucial error was to misjudge the Dornishmen - both at the end of his conquest and later still when they lured him into a trap. Whereas Robb failed not only because he underestimated his enemies but also because he antagonized and betrayed his own supporters.

And Aegon is going to be different from Daeron I in the sense that he won't conquer anything, either. He is rather going to restore the Targaryen dynasty and then fail as a politician/ruler. I expect him to be a capable general in the beginning, but unlike Robb and Daeron I I expect him to fail in his later campaigns rather spectacularly or win very bloody, pyrrhic victories - not only when he faces Daenerys in battle, but when he tries to pacify the Realm after he has won the Iron Throne.

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Hmm... I'm still not convinced. I don't doubt he wants a peaceful realm, but I think he wants it on his terms.

Of course, there is another point behind the Aegon plot connected to the question who Aegon actually is if he isn't Rhaegar's son. But if you were to push Varys to decide between his ultimate goal of lasting peace for the Realm and his loyalty to this Aegon of his own making if that guy turned out to be a disappointment, then the answer is clear.

Varys' own answer to his riddle is twofold - the people of Westeros believe true power resides with the Targaryens. They are the ones everybody can agree to bow to if they are pushed. And that is true, they are the only family who can do this. But the second part is that Varys wants that Targaryen to be a special person, trained to rule justly and effectively to the benefit of all.

His speech to Kevan doesn't revolve around bloodlines or magical qualities of king's blood or the golden blood of Old Valyria - instead, he talks about Aegon's upbringing and education, the way he was prepared to be a king which Varys thinks will shape him into a good monarch.

If Varys were doing what he did for 'the Blackfyre cause' or for some other passed over cadet branch of House Targaryen then he could have told that to a dying Kevan and the readership then and there. George could even have had him choose words that make it about 'the dragon's revenge' and 'fire and blood coming to Westeros to cleanse it' to make it ambiguous whether he was backing a Red or a Black Dragon (if that is supposed to be a big revelation for a later book) while making it quite clear that the point there was about Aegon himself, and not what Aegon is supposed to accomplish. But instead we got a talk about the latter.

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

In any case, it will be interesting what happens when Dany discovers the mummer behind the "mummer's dragon".

Of course. There is a lot of interesting potential for conflict there, but I'm inclined to believe that Varys ends up in camp Dany in the end. He is not going to go down with Aegon. Unlike Illyrio, perhaps.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

First, I do not see why Aegon shouldn't be able to get the dragon, except for not having opportunity to do so.

Well, aside from not having the opportunity he might also lack the potential to do so. If he isn't Rhaegar's son then he might have as much of a chance at mounting a dragon as Quentyn Martell or Alyn of Hull. Daemon Blackfyre had Targaryen parents on both sides, but we don't know how many generations are between Aegon and Daemon I if he is descended from him. Looking Valyrian doesn't make you a dragonrider.

Not to mention that Aegon could still be a complete fraud - with neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre ancestors, but simply the get of a Lysene whore trained to pretend he is royalty. That would fit more with Varys' belief that power is a shadow at the wall - what better way to illustrate or proof that idea than by creating a king from dirt?

The idea that Varys/Illyrio included the possibility that their lad would one day have to mount a living dragon into their plans is not very likely all things considered - and even if such thoughts crossed their mind, neither of them is a dragonlore expert. They may have thought it would be enough of the lad befriended a young dragon.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

According to that, he would not bow to Daenerys either. But Tyrion himself would never be accepted as a king, and his first appearance mentions "shadow as large as a king", which I take to mean that he will become a power behind the throne.

It could also mean he will aspire and sit the throne and wear a crown. Tyrion certainly would be a hated king, but with a dragon and his wits he would have the means to force people to accept him. And of course Tyrion would be willing to bow down to Dany and accept her, for the time being, if he were to fall in love with her - and even marry her. Remember, George established that Dany believes those other dragon heads will be the riders of her dragons and men she could trust. Whoever ends up a rider of Dany's other two dragons will have a great chance to win her hand - especially a guy who might also be her half-brother.

Sure, Dany is never going to love Tyrion romantically nor desire him sexually, but until the whole Dany-Jon thing starts Tyrion is likely going to be able to ignore that. They will have their own bedchambers, and their own affairs - but a strong sibling bond shaped by the fact that they were always alone in the world and finally found each other against all odds. But that's all going to change when Jon Snow comes along and wins Dany body and mind and heart. That is going to destroy Tyrion.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

They have other option. Ironborn are raiders. They can raid and pillage, but if they try to conquer, that will require fighting on land - and in such conditions, Ironborn will get crushed.

I'm not expecting Euron to be all that dependent on Ironborn on the land.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Marwyn is a Red Priest. At best, he will give her unintentional bad advice. At worst, he will try to manipulate her for his own goals.

See above, he is the archmaester, not the Red Priest, but Moqorro, too, will give Dany sound advice on quite a few things.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

As for Tyrion, his goal is revenge. He doesn't care about anyone else, and will definitely not be a good advisor to Daenerys.

I think he will certainly care about her more than revenge once he finally meets her. He will never forget his revenge but it is going to be less important to him. Not to mention that he is smart enough to understand that the Others are a more important thing than his revenge. Cersei and Jaime and all of KL and the West might be full of wights before they even return to Westeros.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

It is unlikely either one of them will turn out to be good, but frankly, Aegon has less likelyhood of turning violent mass murderer. Daenerys' thoughts in her last chapters clearly point to that direction, whereas all Aegon has displayed so far are naivety and momentary anger. Of course, he is also not so far along, so it could happen; but if it does happen, then you will have two monsters going at each other.

Nothing indicates Daenerys is going to slaughter any innocents, not that anybody is going to be able to anger her so much that she would turn all Maegor on Westeros in the middle of winter. That just doesn't work. If she is going to burn all of Slaver's Bay and has all the slavers from Qarth to Pentos crucified I won't complain. That would be a drastic way to end things, but certainly nothing that's deserving of moral outrage in this world.

I'd also not shed any tears if she were to destroy all of the Westerosi nobility to establish some sort of enlightened absolutist regime working for the betterment of the commoners than to placate and pamper the noble oppressors of the smallfolk - but unfortunately she doesn't seem to have any plans in this regard at this point (nor is it very likely she is going to develop them in the future).

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That is theoretically possible if Renly had massive fleet train with him; but I do not recall any mention of such a fleet. Though it is concievable he left it behind when he rode to confront Stannis.

Nah, Renly hadn't the support of the Redwynes because Renly and Loras themselves left the Redwyne twins in KL where they became Cersei's hostages. Paxter only bestirred himself after the Lannisters arranged the Joff-Margaery betrothal.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Fact is, army has limited area it can forage from. Animals are used to transport food, and animals also eat food. As a general rule, field army can number 10 000 - 20 000 before it has to either break up, rely on a fleet train, or rely on depots secured far in advance.

That is good to know if you are interested in real world logistics, but again - this is a fantasy novel.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Or they might be red herring. While Martin's understanding of medieval warfare does leave a lot to be desired, he is not completely clueless (...or so I hope). But even regardless of Martin's military (in)competence, I would not put it past him to build up apparent threat (Unsullied! Dothraki!) only for said threat to turn out to be not so threatening after all.

It seems you would like to read something like that, but if this were actually the case then ASoIaF would completely suck as a series of novels because the author would have wasted hundreds of pages to develop something that went literally nowhere.

Why don't you expect the Others to just melt in the sun once they step five yards south of the Wall? That would be even worse, of course, but you get the meaning there.

Up until ADwD I did not really expect the Dothraki were to come back in a meaningful way much less join Dany on her way to Westeros - but with them coming way big time in TWoW they will have to have a major impact or else their inclusion into the plot makes no sense at all.

If George wanted Dany to fail as a conqueror or warlord in Westeros the best way to accomplish that would be to give her no troops. To put her completely at the mercy of potential allies in Westeros. But that isn't the plan.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

This may be setting up a retcon of Dothraki, true, but it might also indicate that they truly are not what they are held up to be. "That was no true khalasar" has simply too much of a "No True Scotsman" ring to it.

Well, no. That has the ring of staged shithow to it. A staged arena fight isn't a real fight, especially not when arranged by a culture who has little to no clue about proper warfare.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I guess we will just have to wait and see. As for what Dothraki historically did in Martinworld... they lost against Unsullied because they underestimated infantry.

They lost to the Unsullied because their code of honor prevented them from attacking in a different manner - they were behaving stupidly because of a weird pride, something that's not going to happen to them if they are led by less conventional generals. We can be pretty sure that the khals crushing the Sarnori wouldn't have made such stupid mistakes - and neither would Khal Drogo, who was rather unconventional in the sense that he married Daenerys Targaryen and considered invading Westeros.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Against Sarnor... well:

- Sarnori had 6 000 chariots, 10 000 heavy cavalry, 10 000 light cavalry and 100 000 infantry against 80 000 Dothraki cavalry. This means that Dothraki actually had military superiority as a force of 80 000 cavalry is much more powerful than 100 000 infantry, especially 100 000 light infantry (slings are not often used by heavy infantry, unless you are Byzantine), and Sarnori had insufficient cavalry of their own

- battle was fought in open, flat plain, making infantry even more useless

- whatever Sarnori cavalry was, it was not comparable to Westerosi cavalry. Historically, war chariots stopped being used when horses became big enough to ride. Fact that Sarnor had war chariots means that their horses were likely too small and cavalry too lightly equipped to be useful in shock combat role. Which means that their "heavy" cavalry could not have been all that heavy - spears and shields maybe, while light cavalry used javelins or bows, but that is all.

We don't know anything about the quality of Sarnori cavalry, nor their chariots in comparison to real world or Westerosi cavalry, but overall it is quite clear that Essos developed high cultures - the Valyrians and Rhoynar and YiTish clearly are the greatest civilizations in Martinworld, with the Summer Islanders coming next.

Westeros is backwater nonsense, for the most part. I mean you are aware that the Andals were the ones who conquered Westeros for the most part ... after they were drawn from Essos by the Valyrians and their allies.

The Dothraki didn't defeat the Sarnori in just one battle, they took out city after city - sure, the Sarnori were stupid, but the people in every city that was targeted would have realized that they were about to be crushed now, and they couldn't fight back or defeat them.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Overall, Dothraki claim to military superiority rests on bullying a bunch of Bronze Age city-states. These may have advantage over Westeros in terms of political unity (slavery vs feudalism), but little else. I do see possibility of Dothraki winning against Westerosi, but that depends on a) Dothraki being able to separate Westerosi heavy cavalry from their infantry (likely) and b) Dothraki being able to face Westerosi heavy cavalry in combat (unlikely).

The Free Cities are not living in the bronze age! The Rhoynar discovered iron first, made it into steel, and taught the art to the Valyrians (who became the greatest smiths of all time) and the Andals, who brought it to Westeros.

Iron and (Valyrian) steel are as prominent in the Free Cities than they are in Westeros (and Valyrian steel would be much more common in the Free Cities than in Westeros).

I get it that you want to see the Westerosi knights as great warriors for some reason, but I don't think that's true - and even if it were, it is no longer going to be true when Dany comes knocking at the door.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I got confused there because right now Volantene participation in anti-Daenerys coalition is on my mind. But from Tyrion's thoughts, it appears that tiger cloaks as well are slave soldiers.

They are slave soldiers, but professional slave soldiers in service to a city-state which conquered quite a few of the other Free Cities and was about the become a second Valyria (sans dragons). If you go back to ADwD then everybody knowing that the Volantenes are coming to Slaver's Bay is pissing their pants - Vic is afraid he won't reach Dany in time, and the Yunkish allies insist on escalating things with Meereen after Yurzhak's death because they, too, know the Volantenes are on their way and once they are there they will take all the spoils. If they want to get something out of their war they will have to move against Meereen before the Volantenes are there.

In Slaver's Bay slaves are bred and trained and sold. These people don't have any martial culture because they have no outside enemies - the people going to Slaver's Bay either want to sell or buy slaves.

But this isn't the case with Volantis or the Three Daughters. All those cities do have professional armies and navies in addition to having the coin to hire sellswords and sellsails who are, for the most part, run by their own peers.

How powerful the Free Cities are can also be seen by the talk between Barth and the Sealord in FaB - it is acknowledged that the Braavosi navy could take out all the Westerosi fleets ... for a time, at least. Jaehaerys I has the resources of an entire continent at his disposal, so he certainly could build up a navy strong enough to crush the Braavosi eventually, even more so if he were to simply moves troops to Essos to attack Braavos overland, cut it off from its hinterlands, etc.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

The idea that their discipline is already lessening is one George has already introduced in the books. It might not be a major plot point right now, but I do not see it being abandoned either.

Oh, I know that, but that's just a sign of general laziness and decadence, reflected on the individual. Dany is lingering where she doesn't belong, it affects herself and her people.

But last time I looked knights and lords and sellswords also take their time off - perhaps the Unsullied might no longer feel as little pain as they did when they were still taking their drugs and all, but that is not going to mean they are turning into little cry babies who no longer know how to use their shields and spears. Or do you expect a knight taking off a night is going to forget how to ride in battle?

In fact, I'd argue that them wanting to fight and die for a good cause is going to strengthen their resolve when push comes to shove, not weaken it.

What the hell do the Westerosi knights fight for? Their lords? The prospect of rewards and spoils? Honor? A king they never knew? All that pales in comparison to what Dany's Unsullied are fighting for.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And fanaticism =/= discipline. If discipline slackens, Unsullied willingness to kill and die for Daenerys can easily be used against them. While Westerosi may be too stupid honourable to do something like that, Golden Company (which, at 10 000 strong, appears to be intended as a direct counterpart to Daenerys' Unsullied) should be able to exploit it. And even if it doesn't, they will walk straight over Unsullied.

The Golden Company will be pretty much spent when Daenerys arrives. They are Aegon's core army, he will use them in all the battles that are coming, and they will suffer many losses.

And unlike Aegon Dany will have the coin to pay them off if she has to. The Iron Throne is pretty much broke, but Dany will have the wealth of most of the Free Cities and those of Slaver's Bay in her pockets, and those of the Dothraki and perhaps Qarth as well.

I'd be surprised if any sellsword would die for Aegon if he knew his death was effectively certain...

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Once Redwynes are destroyed, Ironborn will be able to raid at will. But Muslim navies and corsairs had raided European shores at will from 7th to 16th centuries, and during some periods raiding was so intense that it led to near-permanent depopulation of coasts. Yet they never made any lasting conquests - all conquests they did make were done by land-based armies, sometimes transported by fleet but always fighting on land.

But Euron doesn't want to raid, he wants to conquer, which means he is going to behave like a conqueror and not a raider. He will pretend to be Aegon the Conqueror - stern to your enemies, monstrous even if resistance is offered (as he will show when dealing with the Redwynes) - but openhanded with everybody who bends the knee.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And do we know how Ironborn conquered Riverlands? I can easily see it being a combination of raiding and diplomacy.

The way it is presented it was by winning battles and crushing knights. They had the advantage of the river, of course, but they still had to kill the enemy, no?

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Which would leave it to conventional forces, where Daenerys should - unless she manages to get Westerosi support nearly equal to Aegon's - be completely helpless.

Which is why she won't be completely helpless to begin with.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Actually, wars in Westeros may be rarer, but they are also much more massive and more damaging than was the case in actual Middle Ages. It is less that Westeros is a "medieval paradise" and more that "Middle Ages were a paradise compared to Westeros". And Westeros is a paradise compared to much of Essos...

Westeros had not to deal with an outside invader/conqueror since Aegon the Conqueror. Even Iron Throne vs. Dorne was internal Westeros affair. That is a fucking paradise. Point me to a medieval nation which wasn't constantly under threat from their own neighbors, or to a medieval monarch who hadn't always take the field against his own lords.

The former never happened in Westeros during the Targaryen reign - and likely only rarely before that - and the latter was very rare.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

She tried to do away with barbaric practice, but we see that she is too impatient to do it properly. She already has managed to make massive improvements in situation, yet she doesn't see it as such because she thinks it is not enough. I don't feel like typing it all out - there are many supporting citations I would have to search for - but there is a good analysis here which luckily makes all my points for me:

https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/10/05/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-iv-a-darker-daenerys/

But in short, Daenerys ends up despising peace and the compromises she was forced to make because changes do not come quickly enough. And this despite the fact that they are happening much more quickly than one could reasonably expect. She is also becoming mistrustful, paranoid and hateful.

That is a faulty analysis based on very weird ideas like that the slavers didn't want to poison Dany.

Dany is not too impatient, she is too lenient, too compromising, too forgiving. She started as Aegon the Conqueror and turned herself into King Aenys, always playing nice, always wearing the floppy ears, imprisoning her own dragons (like Aenys refused to fly his own dragon into battle two times).

She is eaten alive by her cunning enemies who smell her weakness on every turn. Daario gave her the right counsel with his Red Wedding idea. That was the way to end this, not soft words and compromise and marriage alliances.

This is symbolized perfectly when the Yunkai'i feast her and present that cake to her which has a Ghiscari Harpy on top of it with Dany's own likeness. They turned her into a toy, a dessert they are going to gorge themselves onto. The only way to free the slaves is to kill the masters and destroy their culture.

This whole thing is getting her back on track, it is not taking her on the wrong track.

This kind of dichotomy - foreign invader wanting to abolish traditional culture - is not going to work with Westeros the way it did with Meereen and the Ghiscari. Dany was working with people who had every reason to hate and loathe her because of what she did to them and their culture - which won't be the case for Westeros.

Aegon nor any of the other pretenders there is never going to be for the Westerosi the same thing which slavery and their way of life was for the Meereenese. He is just going to be another Targaryen - like Daenerys herself. And unlike him, she is going to be a real one with dragons, while he is a fake one with elephants (who are going to die in winter).

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Actually, that is pretty much what she expects. Or at least, expected. It is entirely likely that her Meereen experience will have taught her that the only way to rule is with "fire and blood", as her hallucinations indicate. She will have swung like a pendulum, and her campaign in Westeros will be nowhere as humane as you think it will be.

I don't think it will be humane when she deals with her enemies - I just think she won't have that enemies there. I don't think she should compromise with the Westerosi the way she tried with the Meereenese - offer them a chance to bend the knee. If they reject, fire and blood. If they survive a battle, another chance, and if that's rejected the wall or death.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe, maybe not. We will see; but his campaigns need not be extraordinarily bloody.

If he is going to fight actually battles, they will be bloody.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Euron is an overrated idiot, most likely.

LOL, no. He is the biggest mortal threat to Westeros besides the Others. The most powerful and most dangerous antagonist of them all.

If there is an overrated idiot it is 'the lad'. He allowed a dwarf to lead him around by the nose in one conversation.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I never doubted that Euron is good towards his men, but I simply do not see him treating mainlanders in such a way. And even if he did, he is still Ironborn - nobody would take easily to his rule.

I don't think Euron will succeed and rule happily ever after ... but he will have considerable success by playing his cards right. Which will be a carrot-and-stick policy. He used the same thing on the Iron Islands, too. When he murdered Balon he seized Pyke and drowned Sawane Botley who challenged his claim - but when Aeron called his Kingsmoot he didn't take the Urron Redhand approach but used this stage to make himself the chosen king of the Ironborn, strengthening his position even more.

He is going to repeat that with in the Reach - first he crushes all the Redwyne ships and thus sends the message that he is powerful and monstrous, especially since he will use magic to do that, but afterwards he will offer generous terms and support to anyone willing to bend the knee to him.

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I'm not sure he was manipulated by Tyrion, at least not to the extent that most people think. Fact is, he said nothing until it became obvious that eastern road is closed to Golden Company - and then he used Tyrion's advice to turn them west. It might be that he truly bought Tyrion's advice, but it might also be that he simply used it to prevent losing Golden Company alltogether - it was rather obvious that both officers and rank-and-file of Golden Company were already sick of waiting for Daenerys. If he had not acted then, he might not have had army at all soon. It might also be a combination of those two scenarios.

No, Strickland wanted to wait. He knows that his dragon is no good and lacks the dragons to prove who he is. Aegon bought the idea that Dany would come to him now to help him, etc.

But, to be sure, the Aegon-Tyrion scene is one of the bits that make no sense whatsoever at the point where they are in the book. Aegon has no intention to 'go east' at that point, since the Shy Maid has no idea yet that Dany is going to remain in Meereen (that they only learn in the city where Tyrion gets abducted by Jorah). Instead, they were intending to wait from Daenerys in Volantis - which they expected she would reach on her journey from Slaver's Bay east either by land or sea.

Aegon should have stopped Tyrion when he was starting his 'west or east crap', saying 'What are you moron talking about? We are going to Volantis to wait for my aunt. She will come to me like a homeless beggar on the street, and I will offer her the help and support of the Golden Company!'

Nobody wanted to go to Dany in Meereen while they had no clue yet that she was setting herself up as a queen there.

This is a conversation George originally had in a Tyrion chapter after they had learned that Dany wasn't coming, but he stupidly moved it into a chapter where they didn't know that yet.

The talk should have been rewritten into a hypothetical scenario - 'What would you do if Daenerys wouldn't come west right now?' - as well as stressing the fact that Aegon being male and Rhaegar's son, etc. had 'the better claim'. That way Aegon would also not be just be Tyrion's glaring mouthpiece during the conversation with the Golden Company.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

I agree. Mace would make a great POV, too. Essentially I hope that a Tyrell-POV would also sheet some light on who truly hatched the plan to crown Renly, as I still think he did need more than just a little push to get the notion to do this (but I know we might disagree here ).

For things like that such a POV would be great, too.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

Agree. For the Unsullied being freed by Dany is like if their goddess had come to their rescue herself.

In fact, I wonder whether the Unsullied arrival in Westeros might change the way the Maid (or the Mother) is seen in the long run (if Bonifer and his holy hundred might end up with Dany in the long run, for example), as till now the Warrior is holding all of military proneness within the Seven, but the Lady of Spears seems to be something between Athena and Ishtar.

That is certainly an interesting idea - Dany could also use her image as 'Mother' to portray herself as the Faith's Mother. Could certainly work with the commons.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

Agree. They are juvenile now, just big enough to be ridden by someone as light and small as Dany. Even Drogon might not be able to carry a big person on his back (not talking about carrying prey in his claws, that's something entirely different; but he doesn't carry that horse to his nest either).

I think he will grow large enough to do that, but the main reason I don't see Vic becoming a dragonrider is that he is not going to be able to ride one due to his size - especially not if he is armored.

I think the dragons could be grow as large as the dragons of Rhaenyra's older sons and Drogo perhaps reaching the size of Tessarion and Sunfyre, but certainly not the size of Syrax or Caraxes.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

They might be crucial against things very vulnerable to fire, like the ice-zombies and their masters, but not against frozen and snow-covered structures. And I think even against the Others the other magic-users and the armies will be needed because the dragons aren't that strong now. We aren't talking about Balerion here, who would have made the entire Others-problem a joke just by himself.

Yeah, I expect the Red Priests and Marwyn and Quaithe to play a considerable role there, and Bran, too, of course - and on 'the evil side' both Euron and Qyburn, who could be great and terrible things together if they ever teamed up.

I also think we are going to see Targaryen descendants being able to turn Valyrian steel swords into Lightbringers the way Beric is being able to ignite his sword with his blood. The idea there is that a I think the R'hllor thing only worked on Beric because he has some dragonlord blood, and Brienne will later be a key champion on humanity because she, as a more recent Targaryen descendant, will be able to ignite her Oathkeeper with her own blood (possibly only after she is also resurrected by Thoros the Beric and Catelyn way - but perhaps also just because she has magical blood).

The biggest impact this kind of thing will have on Jon Snow's sword, of course - who should also have such abilities after his body is resurrected the R'hllor way.

But I think the way to end the Others threat for good is to have somebody go/fly to the Heart of Winter to do something there - talk/reason with the entity there, destroy it, etc. - and that is something only a person imbued with magical fire might be able to pull off - i.e. Melisandre and Jon, after his death and resurrection. Anybody else might literally freeze to death this far in the Land of Always Winter. And a dragon might come in handy to get there in time, since chances are that a walk there would take months or years under the present circumstances, not to mention that Others and wights would kill anyone trying to walk there long before such a person could get even close.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

Essentially, Aegon can't do anything regarding giving lands and rights without also antagonizing someone. And while this is also true for Dany, she will be so late to the party, that the people coming to her first will be the one who have been already antagonized by Aegon, so she will not have (and will not be able) to choose.

Yes, and unlike Aegon Dany is also going to have rewards for loyal people in Essos. She would not be restricted to reward her followers by giving them Westerosi castles. Aegon has no such luxury.

9 hours ago, Morte said:

I don't see the more-than-just-a-consort-thing being the problem, but more the facts of a) the position itself (Strickland is already not convinced about Aegon, if the boy blows the idea of marriage to Dany, he might think even further - especially if Aegon would start strange rumours about Dany the GC knows not being true...), b) her being Dornish (for many of the Reach- and Marcher-Lords), and c) how she got into that position (the whole misogynistic crap about the boy being ruled by his cock).

Strickland was amazed how well the Stormlands campaign worked so far, he is likely to come around and become a great Aegon fanboy, if he not already is, but he is also going to be the first to question him if things start to go wrong. That's just how his character is set up. In fact, he could be one of the first men Aegon has arrested and executed for questioning him.

I think the end of the 'Dany betrothal' thing is going to raise not much problems at first since they will first learn she married Hizdahr (interpreted as her kissing Westeros goodbye) - that could actually cause a panic among the Aegonites since they might fear that without Dany and her dragons they won't prevail in the end even if they can take the Iron Throne for a time - and then that she is allegedly dead. They cannot wait for a Daenerys who might never come nor for one who may be dead.

That will mark the moment where nobody is going to object to Aegon taking another bride - but the question remains whether Aegon will make that decision when he knows those things about Dany or before he knows them. If the latter where the case this could cause a rift that's not going to close because people later learn that Aegon may have done the right thing there (which will eventually turn out to be a very wrong thing).

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Thanks for the clarification.

As I said, first it would be a fantasy cliché troupe, second, as @Lord Varys pointed out, we already have a mad queen, having two would be a little too much, and third it is something everyone is expecting her to do in-world because of her father.

That is why I really would like to see Aegon turn out to be 'Aerys' grandson', because that's something not many people seem to expect - and he could snap regardless who his parents and ancestors are.

It is also part of the reason I'd like to see Jon Snow take a dark road after his return from the dead, inspired both by the fact that he was stuck in Ghost for too long a time while having essentially no skinchanger training as well as by the fact that he was betrayed and brutally murdered by men he trusted. Seeing him as a mild version of Aerys II after Duskendale could be a really great plot - with the wolf-thing causing him to behave 'less than human' (which his granddad also did when he refused to have his nails and hair cut) as well as the betrayal thing causing him to be very suspicious and afraid of other people, refusing to see them, not allowing anyone to touch or approach him, that sort of thing.

Of course those things would have to become manageable eventually for him to function as a proper character in the future, but I think a cruel streak should remain - better to kill first, and ask questions later to prevent that he is going to be stabbed and gutted a second time.

[Hodor the Articulate]

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I'm not sure he was manipulated by Tyrion, at least not to the extent that most people think. Fact is, he said nothing until it became obvious that eastern road is closed to Golden Company - and then he used Tyrion's advice to turn them west. It might be that he truly bought Tyrion's advice, but it might also be that he simply used it to prevent losing Golden Company alltogether - it was rather obvious that both officers and rank-and-file of Golden Company were already sick of waiting for Daenerys. If he had not acted then, he might not have had army at all soon. It might also be a combination of those two scenarios.

The whole chapter, he's parroting Tyrion's words, even before meeting the GC. It's pretty clear he thoroughly bought into Tyrion's manipulations, and all it took was some ego stroking.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mace's own take in the Aegon thing will depend on how long Tommen/Myrcella are going to work as figureheads for him to cling to power. If they would lose legitimacy very fast - say, by being declared bastards by the Faith or via a public confession of Jaime Lannister or both - then he might have no other choice but to join Aegon. The same would be true if he were defeated in battle and subsequently captured.

However, the animosity between the Reach and the Dornishmen - as well as the animosity between the Stormlanders and the Dornishmen - certainly could help destabilize Aegon's reign if he were to marry Arianne Martell. Aegon's Stormlanders, Reach men, and Dornishmen might have a common cause in overthrowing the Lannister regime, but their alliance might quickly fray once they realize that they have nothing in common besides that - and don't like *their Targaryen king* to shower the other factions with favors they think they are deserving themselves.

A few Reach houses will quickly declare for Aegon, as was hinted at in the meeting with the CG. I can't see Mace joining him with any enthusiasm and will be one of the least loyal allies. Maybe if Margaery dies? But then Mace will have beef with the HS, who is in turn likely to ally with Aegon. Hmm...

I think he will be captured or dead though, so where the Tyrells go will probably depend more on Willas, anyway.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course. There is a lot of interesting potential for conflict there, but I'm inclined to believe that Varys ends up in camp Dany in the end. He is not going to go down with Aegon. Unlike Illyrio, perhaps.

I can't see Varys lasting far past Dance 2.0, whomever he chooses to align with. He has no place in the more mystical storylines.

[Aldarion]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, aside from not having the opportunity he might also lack the potential to do so. If he isn't Rhaegar's son then he might have as much of a chance at mounting a dragon as Quentyn Martell or Alyn of Hull. Daemon Blackfyre had Targaryen parents on both sides, but we don't know how many generations are between Aegon and Daemon I if he is descended from him. Looking Valyrian doesn't make you a dragonrider.

Not to mention that Aegon could still be a complete fraud - with neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre ancestors, but simply the get of a Lysene whore trained to pretend he is royalty. That would fit more with Varys' belief that power is a shadow at the wall - what better way to illustrate or proof that idea than by creating a king from dirt?

The idea that Varys/Illyrio included the possibility that their lad would one day have to mount a living dragon into their plans is not very likely all things considered - and even if such thoughts crossed their mind, neither of them is a dragonlore expert. They may have thought it would be enough of the lad befriended a young dragon.

At any rate, such speculation is meaningless unless we know exactly how far dragonriding traits extend. It might be something that was preserved for nobility of Valyria only, or something that was present in whole population - in which case looking Valyrian might be enough. Or it might be something you just need to befriend a dragon for.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not expecting Euron to be all that dependent on Ironborn on the land.

 

What is he going to depend on, then? Unless he is actually agent of the Others and has ability to raise the dead - which is a possibility - he will not have effective land army. He cannot really look for alliances.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, aside from not having the opportunity he might also lack the potential to do so. If he isn't Rhaegar's son then he might have as much of a chance at mounting a dragon as Quentyn Martell or Alyn of Hull. Daemon Blackfyre had Targaryen parents on both sides, but we don't know how many generations are between Aegon and Daemon I if he is descended from him. Looking Valyrian doesn't make you a dragonrider.

Not to mention that Aegon could still be a complete fraud - with neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre ancestors, but simply the get of a Lysene whore trained to pretend he is royalty. That would fit more with Varys' belief that power is a shadow at the wall - what better way to illustrate or proof that idea than by creating a king from dirt?

The idea that Varys/Illyrio included the possibility that their lad would one day have to mount a living dragon into their plans is not very likely all things considered - and even if such thoughts crossed their mind, neither of them is a dragonlore expert. They may have thought it would be enough of the lad befriended a young dragon.

Either is possible, depending on whether he gets his head out of gutter by then. As for Others, that depends on whether invasion starts by the time they arrive to Westeros. Do not forget that it was Tyrion who effectively destroyed evidence about the Others and, if memory serves me, went on to mock Alliser then. Guy is intelligent, but when it comes to things which are not screwing people over in political arena, he is an idiot.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nothing indicates Daenerys is going to slaughter any innocents, not that anybody is going to be able to anger her so much that she would turn all Maegor on Westeros in the middle of winter. That just doesn't work. If she is going to burn all of Slaver's Bay and has all the slavers from Qarth to Pentos crucified I won't complain. That would be a drastic way to end things, but certainly nothing that's deserving of moral outrage in this world.

I'd also not shed any tears if she were to destroy all of the Westerosi nobility to establish some sort of enlightened absolutist regime working for the betterment of the commoners than to placate and pamper the noble oppressors of the smallfolk - but unfortunately she doesn't seem to have any plans in this regard at this point (nor is it very likely she is going to develop them in the future).

Actually, it is entirely possible for her to turn all Maegor. If it turns out that Aegon has basically stolen away support she was counting on in Westeros, and Tyrion convinces her ahead of term that he is a Blackfyre who is knowingly out to steal her crown, she might well choose that path.

And "enlightened absolutist regime" rarely actually stays enlightened. That is simply too much power concentrated in hands of one person, regardless of how good their intentions were. Feudalism is on average better than such a regime - even Westerosi shittier-than-historical version of feudalism is likely better - simply because it spreads power. The only way absolutist regime would actually work and not be a tyranny is if people (e.g. independent cities etc.) were able to oppose it enough to constrain "absolute" ruler's powers enough for ruler to not be absolute. And as you noted, she doesn't even have any plans, let alone workable plans.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It seems you would like to read something like that, but if this were actually the case then ASoIaF would completely suck as a series of novels because the author would have wasted hundreds of pages to develop something that went literally nowhere.

Why don't you expect the Others to just melt in the sun once they step five yards south of the Wall? That would be even worse, of course, but you get the meaning there.

Up until ADwD I did not really expect the Dothraki were to come back in a meaningful way much less join Dany on her way to Westeros - but with them coming way big time in TWoW they will have to have a major impact or else their inclusion into the plot makes no sense at all.

If George wanted Dany to fail as a conqueror or warlord in Westeros the best way to accomplish that would be to give her no troops. To put her completely at the mercy of potential allies in Westeros. But that isn't the plan.

They will have major impact in that Daenerys will be bringing with her a horde of bedtime monster stories, which will remove much of her support. Bringing Dothraki with her is, to Westerosi, not that much different from bringing the Others and wights. And if they start burning and raiding - as they are wont to do - that will reduce her support even more.

So Dothraki will definitely have major plot impact - but said impact does not necessarily require them to be militarily effective.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It seems you would like to read something like that, but if this were actually the case then ASoIaF would completely suck as a series of novels because the author would have wasted hundreds of pages to develop something that went literally nowhere.

Why don't you expect the Others to just melt in the sun once they step five yards south of the Wall? That would be even worse, of course, but you get the meaning there.

Up until ADwD I did not really expect the Dothraki were to come back in a meaningful way much less join Dany on her way to Westeros - but with them coming way big time in TWoW they will have to have a major impact or else their inclusion into the plot makes no sense at all.

If George wanted Dany to fail as a conqueror or warlord in Westeros the best way to accomplish that would be to give her no troops. To put her completely at the mercy of potential allies in Westeros. But that isn't the plan.

Or it could be that it was the first time they faced actual heavy infantry. I didn't think of it before, but now that I did, whole situation reminds me of when Turks fought Western Crusaders for the first time. They attacked, but because they did not know how to deal with such heavily armoured troops - and heavy shock cavalry in particular - they got wiped out. Description of Sarnori makes me think their infantry was predominantly light infantry.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Free Cities are not living in the bronze age! The Rhoynar discovered iron first, made it into steel, and taught the art to the Valyrians (who became the greatest smiths of all time) and the Andals, who brought it to Westeros.

Iron and (Valyrian) steel are as prominent in the Free Cities than they are in Westeros (and Valyrian steel would be much more common in the Free Cities than in Westeros).

I was not talking about Free Cities, I was talking about cities Dothraki actually destroyed. Particularly Field of Crows, where usage of chariots makes me think that Tall Men had not discovered saddle and stirrup yet.

And regardless of that, you could concievably have bronze-age civilization despite having iron. I was talking about cultural and military practices, not materials used to make equipment.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Free Cities are not living in the bronze age! The Rhoynar discovered iron first, made it into steel, and taught the art to the Valyrians (who became the greatest smiths of all time) and the Andals, who brought it to Westeros.

Iron and (Valyrian) steel are as prominent in the Free Cities than they are in Westeros (and Valyrian steel would be much more common in the Free Cities than in Westeros).

I want the books to make sense. But that would require Daenerys obtaining entire Ottoman Army from real world's history for her to achieve conventional military superiority in Westeros.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I know that, but that's just a sign of general laziness and decadence, reflected on the individual. Dany is lingering where she doesn't belong, it affects herself and her people.

But last time I looked knights and lords and sellswords also take their time off - perhaps the Unsullied might no longer feel as little pain as they did when they were still taking their drugs and all, but that is not going to mean they are turning into little cry babies who no longer know how to use their shields and spears. Or do you expect a knight taking off a night is going to forget how to ride in battle?

In fact, I'd argue that them wanting to fight and die for a good cause is going to strengthen their resolve when push comes to shove, not weaken it.

What the hell do the Westerosi knights fight for? Their lords? The prospect of rewards and spoils? Honor? A king they never knew? All that pales in comparison to what Dany's Unsullied are fighting for.

You are comparing apples and oranges here. Knights and sellswords take their time off, but they are not deindividualized murder machines. The whole claim to fame by Unsullied rests on not having a life. Their tactics are average, their equipment average - for Essos, in Westeros both are subpar. What makes them unique is that they are highly disciplined and cannot be routed - and both depend on them not having anything to live for. If you lose that characteristic of Unsullied, they will be just another army, and not very good one at that. Better motivated than Westerosi armies, as you point out; but still not what they were. And fact is that Westerosi have advantage in everything else: they have advantage in equipment, tactics, and fighting on home soil. The only advantage Unsullied will have is their dedication to Daenerys - but dedication alone is not enough. This is not manga where main character simply wins due to resolve and batting his head against the wall long enough.

If you are incapable of achieving your goals, your resolve can easily get you killed.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Golden Company will be pretty much spent when Daenerys arrives. They are Aegon's core army, he will use them in all the battles that are coming, and they will suffer many losses.

And unlike Aegon Dany will have the coin to pay them off if she has to. The Iron Throne is pretty much broke, but Dany will have the wealth of most of the Free Cities and those of Slaver's Bay in her pockets, and those of the Dothraki and perhaps Qarth as well.

I'd be surprised if any sellsword would die for Aegon if he knew his death was effectively certain...

Golden Company can be replenished with Westerosi recruits. Considering how Unsullied will have had losses and will be relying a lot on "new meat" - untrained boys Daenerys took with her - it means that both armies will have a mix of veterans and new troops.

Aegon's death is by no means certain (it may be obvious to a reader, but do not confuse reader's view with that of a character). You yourself stated that Daenerys' dragons are not that dangerous just yet, and her army as it is now is garbage (when Unsullied and Dothraki are your elite troops, you are in trouble). Golden Company is not necessary to defeat the Unsullied, I just pointed out that two appear to be direct counterparts for each other. But logically, any Westerosi army can wipe them out.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Euron doesn't want to raid, he wants to conquer, which means he is going to behave like a conqueror and not a raider. He will pretend to be Aegon the Conqueror - stern to your enemies, monstrous even if resistance is offered (as he will show when dealing with the Redwynes) - but openhanded with everybody who bends the knee.

 

If he starts behaving as a conqueror, he will get his army destroyed. Fantasy Vikings are not that good against 15th century armies and castles.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Golden Company will be pretty much spent when Daenerys arrives. They are Aegon's core army, he will use them in all the battles that are coming, and they will suffer many losses.

And unlike Aegon Dany will have the coin to pay them off if she has to. The Iron Throne is pretty much broke, but Dany will have the wealth of most of the Free Cities and those of Slaver's Bay in her pockets, and those of the Dothraki and perhaps Qarth as well.

I'd be surprised if any sellsword would die for Aegon if he knew his death was effectively certain...

I would really have liked to see that depicted...

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Westeros had not to deal with an outside invader/conqueror since Aegon the Conqueror. Even Iron Throne vs. Dorne was internal Westeros affair. That is a fucking paradise. Point me to a medieval nation which wasn't constantly under threat from their own neighbors, or to a medieval monarch who hadn't always take the field against his own lords.

The former never happened in Westeros during the Targaryen reign - and likely only rarely before that - and the latter was very rare.

And why do you think that is a paradise? Foreign invaders are usually much worse than civil wars because they do not think much about killing and plundering. But considering how Martin went Grimdark to the point that even Westerosi in a civil war apparently think nothing about "burn, pillage and plunder", I do not think "not having external invaders" makes much of a difference. Especially considering how many of civil wars involved dragons.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think it will be humane when she deals with her enemies - I just think she won't have that enemies there. I don't think she should compromise with the Westerosi the way she tried with the Meereenese - offer them a chance to bend the knee. If they reject, fire and blood. If they survive a battle, another chance, and if that's rejected the wall or death.

 

She will have enemies, that much is clear. Question is only a balance of enemies vs support. Because without extensive support... well, forces she will bring with herself are (or at least logically should be) kinda useless.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Westeros had not to deal with an outside invader/conqueror since Aegon the Conqueror. Even Iron Throne vs. Dorne was internal Westeros affair. That is a fucking paradise. Point me to a medieval nation which wasn't constantly under threat from their own neighbors, or to a medieval monarch who hadn't always take the field against his own lords.

The former never happened in Westeros during the Targaryen reign - and likely only rarely before that - and the latter was very rare.

Extraordinarily so, not necessarily.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, no. He is the biggest mortal threat to Westeros besides the Others. The most powerful and most dangerous antagonist of them all.

And what has he shown so far to indicate that? Everything you have said about Aegon, you can also apply to Euron for the most part. Guy started a war in Westeros while still not having an access to the very things he is basing his strategy on.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, Strickland wanted to wait. He knows that his dragon is no good and lacks the dragons to prove who he is. Aegon bought the idea that Dany would come to him now to help him, etc.

 

Strickland was the only one who wanted to wait. Yes, it was likely smartest option, but fact is, most of the rest of commanders - as well as rank-and-file - wanted to get moving. Lysono Maar, and evene Strickland himself realized Daenerys is not coming west. By the time Aegon spoke up, they had basically discarded as unrealistic option to either join Daenerys or to wait on her. It was either abandon any idea of conquest at all, or go to Westeros alone. Maar, Rivers, Peake, Mandrake, Flowers - they all decided on western course. You are acting as it was Aegon alone who decided on going to Westeros, but that is just not so.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But, to be sure, the Aegon-Tyrion scene is one of the bits that make no sense whatsoever at the point where they are in the book. Aegon has no intention to 'go east' at that point, since the Shy Maid has no idea yet that Dany is going to remain in Meereen (that they only learn in the city where Tyrion gets abducted by Jorah). Instead, they were intending to wait from Daenerys in Volantis - which they expected she would reach on her journey from Slaver's Bay east either by land or sea.

Aegon should have stopped Tyrion when he was starting his 'west or east crap', saying 'What are you moron talking about? We are going to Volantis to wait for my aunt. She will come to me like a homeless beggar on the street, and I will offer her the help and support of the Golden Company!'

Nobody wanted to go to Dany in Meereen while they had no clue yet that she was setting herself up as a queen there.

This is a conversation George originally had in a Tyrion chapter after they had learned that Dany wasn't coming, but he stupidly moved it into a chapter where they didn't know that yet.

The talk should have been rewritten into a hypothetical scenario - 'What would you do if Daenerys wouldn't come west right now?' - as well as stressing the fact that Aegon being male and Rhaegar's son, etc. had 'the better claim'. That way Aegon would also not be just be Tyrion's glaring mouthpiece during the conversation with the Golden Company.

That is true.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

A few Reach houses will quickly declare for Aegon, as was hinted at in the meeting with the CG. I can't see Mace joining him with any enthusiasm and will be one of the least loyal allies. Maybe if Margaery dies? But then Mace will have beef with the HS, who is in turn likely to ally with Aegon. Hmm...

There are a number of ways how the Tyrells could be forced to end their ties with Tommen/Myrcella - one would be Margaery being convicted, another would be Tommen dying, a third them being declared bastards born of incest and adultery by the Faith, a fourth a defeat in battle at Storm's End, resulting in Mace himself doubting he could stop Aegon's rise or in him ending up Aegon's prisoner.

There are also scenarios imaginable where Mace stands with his King Tommen till the bitter end, of course, but I don't think they are very likely.

The Reach lord who is definitely going to join Aegon is Mathis Rowan, who right now commands the token siege force Mace left at Storm's End when he returned to KL. He has pretty much gone on record as being a real Targaryen loyalist back in ASoS when he nearly exploded when the council discussed the murder of Elia and the children. He and his men will join Aegon when they take Storm's End.

Another good candidate are the Merryweathers who I think were originally Golden Company allies due to the fact Orton was in exile in Essos once, and his father and grandfather apparently died there - they could have all served with the Golden Company before Robert allowed Orton to come back home. Not to mention that Taena's actions make no sense if she is not working for a third party - she should have chosen either the Tyrells or Cersei for a benefactor, but instead she played them against each other. Even if that all were nonsense having made both the Lannisters and the Tyrells her enemies now, the Merryweathers only way to escape the wrath of House Tyrell would be to join with Aegon.

The next suspect is Titus Peake with his Lannister wife who might be the present Lord of Starpike - with there being other Peakes in the Golden Company the Westerosi Peakes are the obvious potential allies the Golden Company expects to have in Westeros.

With the Merryweathers and the Peakes George also has the advantage that neither of those houses showed up with a powerful force or men-at-arms in war so far, meaning that they could provide Aegon with fresh troops none of which are already bound in the Tyrell army at court or with Garlan on their way to the Shield Islands. Orton definitely would have raised his own men by now to defend his castle against the wrath of the Tyrells.

How many other Reach lords are going to side with Aegon remains to be seen - but I imagine that Mathis Rowan's decision to stand with Aegon will have a tremendous effect on many Reach lords - and the Realm at large - since he is well-liked and respected man.

He could also cause (some) of Mace's own men to refuse to fight against Aegon, especially if they were believing this Aegon truly is Rhaegar's son.

12 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I think he will be captured or dead though, so where the Tyrells go will probably depend more on Willas, anyway.

If he dies early, then we can expect the Tyrells to behave more like they did during the Dance - to allow their bannermen their own will and lead from the rear, if they lead at all. After all, those men siding with Aegon won't attack Highgarden, they would flock to Aegon at Storm's End or KL to help him win his throne.

Instead, Willas and Garlan are likely going to focus on the Ironborn threat instead and thus ensuring that their own bannermen do not turn against them even if they are not on the same page insofar as who should be king (for a while, at least). By showing they do their best to defend their homeland they will prevent their bannermen and vassals from turning against them.

12 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I can't see Varys lasting far past Dance 2.0, whomever he chooses to align with. He has no place in the more mystical storylines.

Oh, but he is one of the few people who actually understand and care about magic. He is the one who figured out that Stannis is using sorcery to murder people. If Euron or Cersei and others start to do that, too, he might be useful there as well.

Although I certainly agree that the plotters don't necessarily will have that big of a role when fighting mostly involves zombie armies you cannot manipulate.

[Morte]

20 hours ago, Aldarion said:

But he will have to make some rather large logical jumps to do so

Martin doesn't have to make any logical jumps concerning ground troupes, because he did not make the mistake he made with the ships and had given us no true informations on how they work and what they are capable of in the field. We only get glimpses and tales of victories and defeats.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think he will grow large enough to do that, but the main reason I don't see Vic becoming a dragonrider is that he is not going to be able to ride one due to his size - especially not if he is armored.

I think the dragons could be grow as large as the dragons of Rhaenyra's older sons and Drogo perhaps reaching the size of Tessarion and Sunfyre, but certainly not the size of Syrax or Caraxes.

Agree.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, I expect the Red Priests and Marwyn and Quaithe to play a considerable role there, and Bran, too, of course - and on 'the evil side' both Euron and Qyburn, who could be great and terrible things together if they ever teamed up.

I also think we are going to see Targaryen descendants being able to turn Valyrian steel swords into Lightbringers the way Beric is being able to ignite his sword with his blood. The idea there is that a I think the R'hllor thing only worked on Beric because he has some dragonlord blood, and Brienne will later be a key champion on humanity because she, as a more recent Targaryen descendant, will be able to ignite her Oathkeeper with her own blood (possibly only after she is also resurrected by Thoros the Beric and Catelyn way - but perhaps also just because she has magical blood).

The mages will certainly be more important than in the abomination.

Your take on Beric is indeed interesting and would explain why it went so horribly wrong with Cat. Well, I always thought that the "blood" in "Fire and Blood" had more than just the meaning of being needed to ride a dragon, first hint we get are the secret passages in Dragonstone, which might only open if someone with the right blood and the right magic comes along. But I don't see Brienne die and come back a fire-zombie (or Jon, while we are at it - imho he will chill a little in Ghost while his body is in a coma, but he is not dead).

My theory is that the Valyrians actually did make themselves into what they were, which would also explain the strange genetics, the Dragon Dreams as well as their dependence on dragons for more stability as well as the affinity to fire.

And there is no R'hllor, imho, it's just fire magic the people have given a name.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, and unlike Aegon Dany is also going to have rewards for loyal people in Essos. She would not be restricted to reward her followers by giving them Westerosi castles. Aegon has no such luxury.

She also has the luxury of having a lot of people with her who will not really want anything special: The Dothraki will want to go home, after they have ridden to the end of the world with their "Stallion"; the Unsullied, if they survive, would go there Dany goes, doing what good soldiers always did in peace times - building streets, for example.

We don't know what her sell-swords will want in the end, but a lot of the people from Slaver Bay will want to go home or simply settle down.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Strickland was amazed how well the Stormlands campaign worked so far, he is likely to come around and become a great Aegon fanboy, if he not already is, but he is also going to be the first to question him if things start to go wrong. That's just how his character is set up. In fact, he could be one of the first men Aegon has arrested and executed for questioning him.

Yes, this could happen and be the beginning of a drift within the Company. Some of them aren't happy with Strickland already, but he wouldn't be their commander if there wouldn't also be officers who do trust him and consider his judgement prudent.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think the end of the 'Dany betrothal' thing is going to raise not much problems at first since they will first learn she married Hizdahr (interpreted as her kissing Westeros goodbye) - that could actually cause a panic among the Aegonites since they might fear that without Dany and her dragons they won't prevail in the end even if they can take the Iron Throne for a time - and then that she is allegedly dead. They cannot wait for a Daenerys who might never come nor for one who may be dead.

That will mark the moment where nobody is going to object to Aegon taking another bride - but the question remains whether Aegon will make that decision when he knows those things about Dany or before he knows them. If the latter where the case this could cause a rift that's not going to close because people later learn that Aegon may have done the right thing there (which will eventually turn out to be a very wrong thing).

The idea will start to look a lot less intelligent the moment Dany will land. But I imagine Aegon will already have problems by then, maybe some of his advisers will propose that he contacts Dany asap, but I don't think they will be heard, or it will somehow don't work out.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is also part of the reason I'd like to see Jon Snow take a dark road after his return from the dead, inspired both by the fact that he was stuck in Ghost for too long a time while having essentially no skinchanger training as well as by the fact that he was betrayed and brutally murdered by men he trusted. Seeing him as a mild version of Aerys II after Duskendale could be a really great plot - with the wolf-thing causing him to behave 'less than human' (which his granddad also did when he refused to have his nails and hair cut) as well as the betrayal thing causing him to be very suspicious and afraid of other people, refusing to see them, not allowing anyone to touch or approach him, that sort of thing.

Of course those things would have to become manageable eventually for him to function as a proper character in the future, but I think a cruel streak should remain - better to kill first, and ask questions later to prevent that he is going to be stabbed and gutted a second time.

I don't think Jon (or Dany) will really take "a dark road", it's more like they will have learned that it takes more than just good intentions to get shit done and people following your orders, and that "asking nicely" only works with people who are, well, nice and open to arguments.

What I can see happening to Jon is actually him becoming more instinct-driven or vary of people, if he really spends a lot of time in Ghost.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

Marwyn is a Red Priest. At best, he will give her unintentional bad advice. At worst, he will try to manipulate her for his own goals.

See above, he is the archmaester, not the Red Priest, but Moqorro, too, will give Dany sound advice on quite a few things.

Bye the bye, thanks - somehow the part of my sentence about Benarro sending Moqorro, was only thought, but not written...

[BlackLightning]

On 6/6/2020 at 6:21 PM, Lord Varys said:

Nothing of that convinces me. Sansa is learning how to play the game of thrones - and you can't play that all that well in the North in the middle of snow and a land without a proper army. At court you could. And while I agree that she certainly wants Winterfell, the road to Winterfell goes by way of King's Landing - because the Lannisters and Tyrells have to be destroyed/ousted from power for Sansa to be safe again. It wouldn't do if she became Lady of Winterfell and still ends being executed a kingslayer some years later by Tommen's or Myrcella's people.

And the overall plot really doesn't need Sansa in the North. There is Jon there and Stannis and perhaps Rickon soon, too.

Umm...have you met Wyman Manderly? Barbrey Dustin? The Lords Bolton? The entire Karstark family? 

There is definitely a game of thrones to be played in the North. Especially with characters like Mance, Stannis, Selyse and Melisandre still around and with Maege Mormont, Howland Reed and Galbart Glover preparing to make their grand reentrance with Robb's will. Oh and let's not forget Littlefinger who has designs on the North.

When the Wall falls and the North becomes overrun with Others and wights, do you really think that the entire northern storyline will be consumed with ONLY fighting (or being trashed) the Others. There will still be games played and moves to be made.

Even if that's all that there is, the northmen still need to eat. They still need to have a place to gather and sleep. They still need clothing. And they need love and inspiration otherwise they won't want to keep living and fighting.

Winterfell has its own heating system and it is a strong, gigantic castle that can house many, many people. Sansa is the POV to do just that. She's always been attributed to womanly things such as being a lady of a castle and she was able to do what queens and other female leaders are supposed to do back in A Clash of Kings during the Battle of the Blackwater. Several characters have said that she would make a great queen and Sansa knows how to run a household. Sansa also is pretty good at sewing and embroidery (which means winter clothing)

There is literally no other character who can do what Sansa can at Winterfell.

A Dream of Spring will be Sansa's time to shine and she will do most of that shining in Winterfell.