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Prediction: Jaime's fate


Angel Eyes
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What strikes me about Lady SH is how merciless and implacable she was towards Brienne, who was even up to that point still trying to fulfill her promise to Catelyn Stark.

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A Feast for Crows - Brienne I

Only the soldier pines and sentinels still showed green; the broadleaf trees had donned mantles of russet and gold, or else uncloaked themselves to scratch against the sky with branches brown and bare. Every gust of wind drove swirling clouds of dead leaves across the rutted road. They made a rustling sound as they scuttled past the hooves of the big bay mare that Jaime Lannister had bestowed on her. As easy to find one leaf in the wind as one girl lost in Westeros. She found herself wondering whether Jaime had given her this task as some cruel jape. Perhaps Sansa Stark was dead, beheaded for her part in King Joffrey's death, buried in some unmarked grave. How better to conceal her murder than by sending some big stupid wench from Tarth to find her?

Jaime would not do that. He was sincere. He gave me the sword, and called it Oathkeeper. Anyway, it made no matter. She had promised Lady Catelyn that she would bring back her daughters, and no promise was as solemn as one sworn to the dead. The younger girl was long dead, Jaime claimed; the Arya the Lannisters sent north to marry Roose Bolton's bastard was a fraud. That left only Sansa. Brienne had to find her.

Ironically, Lady Stark is dead and Brienne's solemn promise to the dead still applies.  Catelyn's promised not to ask Brienne to do anything that would dishonor her.  I'm not sure if that still applies.  Jaime will have to answer for his part in that promise and taking up arms against the Tully's.  The BwB know that Arya still lives and so will Lady SH.  I expect Brienne will have to continue the search.  Jaime will have to do some fast talking if he is to avoid execution.  Brienne may have to defend him in a trial by champion. 

With rumors of Arya marrying Ramsey Bolton and taking Winterfell;  what are the chances that LSH will compel Jaime to abandon Cersei and take his army to Winterfell?

Edited by LynnS
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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

With rumors of Arya marrying Ramsey Bolton and taking Winterfell;  what are the chances that LSH will compel Jaime to abandon Cersei and take his army to Winterfell?

zero because the BwB would probably know that the lannister story is a lie because of the timeline and because LSH would never trust jaime. She thinks that after he released him he was involved in the RW and even threatned to launch edmure's kid over the walls of riverrun. There is nothing jaime can say to convince LSH that he is inocent.

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

What strikes me about Lady SH is how merciless and implacable she was towards Brienne, who was even up to that point still trying to fulfill her promise to Catelyn Stark.

Because she looks like a traitor that is now serving the lannisters. Why would LSH think she is still trying to fullfil her oath?

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

Catelyn's promised not to ask Brienne to do anything that would dishonor her.  I'm not sure if that still applies.

Why is ordering brienne to kill jaime dishonorable? 

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3 minutes ago, divica said:

zero because the BwB would probably know that the lannister story is a lie because of the timeline and because LSH would never trust jaime. She thinks that after he released him he was involved in the RW and even threatned to launch edmure's kid over the walls of riverrun. There is nothing jaime can say to convince LSH that he is inocent.

If he is absolved by the gods in a trial by champion, she will not have a choice.  I think it's the only way Jaime will get out of it with his life.  LSH also has a score to settle with Boltons.  

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6 minutes ago, divica said:

Why is ordering brienne to kill jaime dishonorable? 

Brienne knows the truth about Jaime and taking him to LSH with subterfuge and killing a man who can't defend himself would be dishonorable in Brienne's eyes.  

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1 minute ago, LynnS said:

If he is absolved by the gods in a trial by champion, she will not have a choice.  I think it's the only way Jaime will get out of it with his life.  LSH also has a score to settle with Boltons.  

But both LSH and the BwB have lost trials by combat that they didn't want to lose so I doubt they will accept to have such a trial. In adition, do you really think LSH would really let jaime go if she thinks he broke his promise to her and has been fighting against tully soldiers and treathning edmure's baby? If she thinks he was involved in the RW? Given what we know of LSH she would just find another way of killing jaime.

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2 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Brienne knows the truth about Jaime and taking him to LSH with subterfuge and killing a man who can't defend himself would be dishonorable in Brienne's eyes.

All prisoners are incapable of defending themselves and killing them isn't dishonorable.

And LSH doesn't know the truth about jaime. In adition, it is pretty hard to argue that jaime hasn't broken his promise to not take arms against the tullys when members of the BwB heard him threatning edmure to launch his baby over the walls or riverrun. And after being public knowledge that he has been leading the lannister army against the ramaining tully forces.  Even brieene can't say anything to refute that. And she can't refute that while they were with roose jaime didn't have some private conversation with him where he convinced roose to go ahead with the RW.

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13 minutes ago, divica said:

But both LSH and the BwB have lost trials by combat that they didn't want to lose so I doubt they will accept to have such a trial.

They have a precedent for trial by combat with Beric and the Hound.  So I can see this coming into play with Jaime.  You can't deny someone a judgement by the gods because you think you will lose.  I would expect Brienne to go up against the most vile and dangerous character in the BwB.  Thoros may also intervene and support trial by combat.

Jaime doesn't have a sword hand and that won't sit well with her.  He can chose a champion.

He can only redeem himself for taking up arms against the Tully's by putting his army into LSH service in removing the Bolton's from Winterfell.  With the added complication that he would run into Stannis.  

This looks like it could end up with Jaime going to the Wall. 

 

 

Edited by LynnS
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2 minutes ago, LynnS said:

They have a precedent for trial by combat with Beric and the Hound.  So I can see this coming into play with Jaime.  You can't deny someone a judgement by the gods because you think you will lose.  I would expect Brienne to go up against the most vile and dangerous character in the BwB.  Thoros may also intervene and support trial by combat.

I agree that they have a precedent for trial by combat. But punishing jaime is their second chance. And I am talking for both the BwB and LSH. Them agreeing to a trial by combat feels like they didn't learn anything with their past experiences. 

And look at this and tell me how this aplies to the current BwB and LSH.

Quote

Beric Dondarrion turned back to the Hound. "You stand accused of murder, but no one here knows the truth or falsehood of the charge, so it is not for us to judge you. Only the Lord of Light may do that now. I sentence you to trial by battle."

In jaime's case I don't see how the BWB could have any doubt that he has been fighting against the tullys and that he threatned edmure's kid. And LSH should also be pretty sure he was involved in the RW. IF they are convinced he is guilty I don't know if a trial by combat would be accepted. I can be wrong but that is something that is used when there is some doubt about the veracity of the charges.

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3 hours ago, divica said:

I can be wrong but that is something that is used when there is some doubt about the veracity of the charges.

Brienne will call into question the veracity of the charges concerning the Stark girls.  She is a reliable and truthful witness.  This should be enough to make a summary judgement questionable.  Not everyone in the BwB will be bloodthirsty.  Thoros certainly not. Jaime has the authority to call off the siege at Riverrun and send that army to Winterfell.  It means breaking with Cersei and potentially aligning with Stannis and the Night Watch. Not to mention revenging herself on the Boltons. 

As for what LSH knows about Arya; she only knows she is alive, not what happened to her after she left the BwB. 

Of course, we are only talking about possibilities.  I don't have a clue what will really happen. 

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16 minutes ago, LynnS said:

As for what LSH knows about Arya; she only knows she is alive, not what happened to her after she left the BwB. 

 

They kind of do...remember when they ask Merret if they saw a scrawny boyish looking girl with the Hound? And they found the farmer that the Hound stole the pig's feet (How anybody could eat feet from an animal is beyond me). 

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12 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

They kind of do...remember when they ask Merret if they saw a scrawny boyish looking girl with the Hound? And they found the farmer that the Hound stole the pig's feet (How anybody could eat feet from an animal is beyond me). 

Can't say I've ever had pig's feet, but apparently it's pretty good.

They still don't know what happened to Arya or where she is.  If there is word of Arya marrying Ramsey Bolton, with Winterfell in Bolton hands;  I think that would be enough for LSH to pursue.  She has as big an axe to grind with the Boltons as she does with the Freys.  She just doesn't have an army to take it back.... Yet.  It could be a moot point though, depending on what happens with Stannis and the wildlings.  Still, could LSH use an army?  Or will Jaime disband his army and go with Brienne in pursuit of the Stark girls.  That's still unfinished business. 

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30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Brienne will call into question the veracity of the charges concerning the Stark girls.  She is a reliable and truthful witness.  This should be enough to make a summary judgement questionable.  Not everyone in the BwB will be bloodthirsty.  Thoros certainly not. Jaime has the authority to call off the siege at Riverrun and send that army to Winterfell.  It means breaking with Cersei and potentially aligning with Stannis and the Night Watch. Not to mention revenging herself on the Boltons. 

The problem is that brienne isn't trustworthy. That is the sole reason why they want to kill her and probably use pod as a hostage to make sure she kills/delivers jaime.

But the biggest problem is that brienne can't bring doubt about jaime leading the lannister army against the tullys and threatning to kill edmure's baby. And I don't see what she can do or say to make LSH doubt jaime's involvement in the RW. How can she prove that jaime didn't talk alone with roose and convinced him to participate in the RW? Don't forget that brienne wasn't with jaime 100% of the time.

41 minutes ago, LynnS said:

As for what LSH knows about Arya; she only knows she is alive, not what happened to her after she left the BwB.

But if the lannister's story contradicts the story from the BWB then she would know that farya is a fake.

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15 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is that brienne isn't trustworthy. That is the sole reason why they want to kill her and probably use pod as a hostage to make sure she kills/delivers jaime.

But the biggest problem is that brienne can't bring doubt about jaime leading the lannister army against the tullys and threatning to kill edmure's baby. And I don't see what she can do or say to make LSH doubt jaime's involvement in the RW. How can she prove that jaime didn't talk alone with roose and convinced him to participate in the RW? Don't forget that brienne wasn't with jaime 100% of the time.

It's a predicament alright and heavily weighed against Jaime.  That's why the only way out of it is a trial by combat and a cessation of conflict at Riverrun.   LSH won't be swayed by anything other than a judgement by the gods.

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16 minutes ago, LynnS said:

It's a predicament alright and heavily weighed against Jaime.  That's why the only way out of it is a trial by combat and a cessation of conflict at Riverrun.   LSH won't be swayed by anything other than a judgement by the gods.

She might not be swayed against even that. She's killing every Lannister or Frey she can get her hands on, why won't she try to do the same with Jaime?

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1 minute ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

She might not be swayed against even that. She's killing every Lannister or Frey she can get her hands on, why won't she try to do the same with Jaime?

She isn't exactly rational or merciful.  The BwB will uphold a judgement in Jaime's favor.  So will Thoros and Brienne.  LSH may not like it but she wouldn't have a choice.

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Just now, Jaenara Belarys said:

She might not be swayed against even that. She's killing every Lannister or Frey she can get her hands on, why won't she try to do the same with Jaime?

That is my point. And LSH has a personal history with jaime that she didn't have with all those lannisters and freys. 

With her thinking he was involved in the RW and knowing he has been leading men against the tullys and threatning to kill edmure's son I just don't see how LSH can let jaime go without punishing him.

Even worse. Given her history of kidnaping lannisters and loosing them I don't think she will wait to pass her judgement. And we haven't even talked about how LSH and the BWB lost trials by combat to lannister people and should be less inclined to grant them to jaime.

21 minutes ago, LynnS said:

It's a predicament alright and heavily weighed against Jaime.  That's why the only way out of it is a trial by combat and a cessation of conflict at Riverrun.   LSH won't be swayed by anything other than a judgement by the gods.

But you are looking for a way to jaime to take a lannister army to winterfell and looking for excuses that could lead to that. However we have no reason to believe that jaime should lead such an army to the north.

If you want jaime to survive I only see 2 likely scenarios.

1) brienne convinces him to participate in a plan to rescue pod so that the 3 of them can escape from the BwB and jaime has been running and hiding from them the last couple of weeks.

2) brienne said he would take the black to avoid death. And this would create a paralel between ned's situation and jaime's. This is the only senario that I can see LSH letting jaime live.

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4 minutes ago, LynnS said:

She isn't exactly rational or merciful.  The BwB will uphold a judgement in Jaime's favor.  So will Thoros and Brienne.  LSH may not like it but she wouldn't have a choice.

But how can anyone judge in jaime's favor? How can there be a doubt that he is guilty of a lot of things he is being acused of?

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2 minutes ago, divica said:

But you are looking for a way to jaime to take a lannister army to winterfell and looking for excuses that could lead to that. However we have no reason to believe that jaime should lead such an army to the north.

I'm not looking for excuses to have my way Divica.  I'm suggesting a possibility.  We have no reason to believe anything until we see it on the page.   To me a trial by combat has a certain logic.  You have rejected everything I've said. So we will have to leave it at that.

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