The Three I'd Question II: The Shadowcatspaw

[Frey family reunion]

delete, this new format keeps screwing me up.

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

Why do you think this? Honest question. I tried to briefly make the case why I think he's exactly the type that would do this.

Mance is a lot of things, ruthless amongst them, but he has a sense of honor. As I said, I feel he is the one true king we've seen in the series. I don't see anything like this in his playbook. I don't think he'd kill an innocent boy, but if for reason he did feel he had to do it for the greater good or whatever, then I think he'd do it himself, not pay a catspaw. It just doesn't feel in character, no more than Jon sending a catspaw to kill Janos Slynt in his sleep. That's not how Jon and Mance operate as far as I can see.

Littlefinger however, it is in his playbook, just ask Sweetrobin. We might argue about whether the action is good or bad for Mance and if it fits his motive, but we know it fits Littlefinger's motive. We know Littlefinger wanted to promote a war, he probably had more access to the dagger than Mance, and we know that bags of silver are as common as sharp looks.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

  Littlefinger wouldn't have used a blade that could be traced back to him. 

Traced back to Robert, and by extension Cersei and kids. Littlefinger lost the knife publicly to Robert at the tourney. Jaime remembers it changing hands, so do many others most likely. Of all the knives in King's Landing that was the one people knew no longer belonged to Littlefinger. It was Robert's from that day.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

In the same way that Aegon the Conqueror was a peacemaker... he killed those would be kings that did not submit.

Ask yourself this though... would Mance have been able to unite the North without the threat of the White Walkers?

Aegon used Dragons to enforce peace by superior firepower, Mance took any challengers one-on-one, no catspaw, no champion but himself. He earned his kingship through merit not birth.

I presume you mean unite the free folk? The answer is probably no. The threat of the Others was central to his efforts. In fact it's the main motive too. But the threat was present, it is real, and he used it. It remains though, and it is a threat to the North even if they don't yet know it, so he can use it again, but only when the North accepts the threat is clear and present.

[Mourning Star]

36 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Mance is a lot of things, ruthless amongst them, but he has a sense of honor. As I said, I feel he is the one true king we've seen in the series. I don't see anything like this in his playbook. I don't think he'd kill an innocent boy, but if for reason he did feel he had to do it for the greater good or whatever, then I think he'd do it himself, not pay a catspaw. It just doesn't feel in character, no more than Jon sending a catspaw to kill Janos Slynt in his sleep. That's not how Jon and Mance operate as far as I can see.

I don't think I can fully agree with you here, but I can understand this perspective.

Unfortunately, because I do want to like Mance, I think this is how he fails Ned's basic test of decency...

Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"
"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. 

36 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Littlefinger however, it is in his playbook, just ask Sweetrobin. We might argue about whether the action is good or bad for Mance and if it fits his motive, but we know it fits Littlefinger's motive. We know Littlefinger wanted to promote a war, he probably had more access to the dagger than Mance, and we know that bags of silver are as common as sharp looks.

I don't think anyone doubts that Littlefinger wouldn't do such a thing for moral reasons, but for practical reasons I think he isn't a real suspect. He wasn't even there, and despite some people's creative theories, I think this fact alone would rule him out, although there are other reasons as well.

36 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Aegon used Dragons to enforce peace by superior firepower, Mance took any challengers one-on-one, no catspaw, no champion but himself. He earned his kingship through merit not birth.

The scale is certainly different. And I do find a man who builds his own power (I hesitate to say through merit) more admirable than one born into it. But at the end of the day it is still power through the threat of death. Mance can forgo the crown and throne, and talk about not kneeling, but his ultimatum is still submit or die.

36 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I presume you mean unite the free folk? The answer is probably no. The threat of the Others was central to his efforts. In fact it's the main motive too. But the threat was present, it is real, and he used it. It remains though, and it is a threat to the North even if they don't yet know it, so he can use it again, but only when the North accepts the threat is clear and present.

I have to wonder if the person who benefits most from a threat might have had a part in causing it.

[three-eyed monkey]

13 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think I can fully agree with you here, but I can understand this perspective.

Unfortunately, because I do want to like Mance, I think he this is how he fails Ned's basic test of decency...

Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"
"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. 

I'm happy with my position that Mance is more akin to Jon or Ned than Cersei or Littlefinger.

15 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think anyone doubts that Littlefinger would do such a thing for moral reasons, but for practical reasons I think he isn't a real suspect. He wasn't even there, and despite some people's creative theories, I think this fact alone would rule him out, although there are other reasons as well.

Not being there is a good reason for using a catspaw. But seriously, if Littlefinger had been there I imagine he'd be more of a suspect, amongst the readership if nothing else.

At least we agree that he'd have no qualms doing it.

20 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

The scale is certainly different. And I do find a man who builds his own power (I hesitate to say through merit) more admirable than one born into it. But at the end of the day it is still power through the threat of death. Mance can forgo the crown and throne, and talk about not kneeling, but his ultimatum is still submit or die.

This touches on a very strong theme in the book around personal responsibility for your actions. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. Let's put another of Ned's tests to Mance and Aegon.

Bran had no answer for that. "King Robert has a headsman," he said, uncertainly.

"He does," his father admitted. "As did the Targaryen kings before him. Yet our way is the older way. The blood of the First Men still flows in the veins of the Starks, and we hold to the belief that the man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. If you would take a man's life, you owe it to him to look into his eyes and hear his final words. And if you cannot bear to do that, then perhaps the man does not deserve to die.

Did Aegon look into his enemies eyes and hear their final words from the back of Balerion? Mance went face to face with his opponents, one-on-one. The free folk followed Mance willingly as a result, because he earned it and only the challengers died. He put his own life on the line for his beliefs. That's merit. The Seven Kingdoms knelt unwillingly to Aegon's dragons. Tens of thousands had to burn first. Of course strength and power rule in Westeros, but strength and power can be wielded in different ways. That's the difference between Mance and Aegon.

 

[Mourning Star]

1 minute ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This touches on a very strong theme in the book around personal responsibility for your actions. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. Let's put another of Ned's tests to Mance and Aegon.

Bran had no answer for that. "King Robert has a headsman," he said, uncertainly.

"He does," his father admitted. "As did the Targaryen kings before him. Yet our way is the older way. The blood of the First Men still flows in the veins of the Starks, and we hold to the belief that the man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. If you would take a man's life, you owe it to him to look into his eyes and hear his final words. And if you cannot bear to do that, then perhaps the man does not deserve to die.

Did Aegon look into his enemies eyes and hear their final words from the back of Balerion? Mance went face to face with his opponents, one-on-one. The free folk followed Mance willingly as a result, because he earned it and only the challengers died. He put his own life on the line for his beliefs. That's merit. The Seven Kingdoms knelt unwillingly to Aegon's dragons. Tens of thousands had to burn first. Of course strength and power rule in Westeros, but strength and power can be wielded in different ways. That's the difference between Mance and Aegon.

Funnily enough, I think this absolutely applies but not in the way you imply. Rather, along with being willing to kill children, sending a catspaw is also not "honorable" because it is sending another to do your killing.

I don't think this distinction applies to battles, or if it does, Mance is equally guilty. He didn't scale the Wall or storm the gate, he sent minions to do it, and they died in droves, which is how you fight a war if we're being honest. An argument can be made that Aegon saved lives, at least of his own men, by winning decisively with dragons (although I don't know I love this perspective).

Anyway good stuff to consider! Thanks

[Makk]

This was another really well argued theory that I enjoyed a lot. I never liked the idea that Joffery started all this, it seemed like arguably the weakest part of the entire story.

But breaking the 4th wall here, I have been under the impression for a long, long time that GRRM pretty much confirmed it was Joffery? After a quick net search all the way back in April 2000 I found...

Quote

You should know that even after all this time, we're still debating things like who was behind the assassination attempt on Bran. Not to mention trying to figure out the four weddings, four trials, and two funeral.

The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal 'em... and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project.

I will tell you that ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger, and also that of Jon Arryn's killer. Some other questions will =not= be resolved... and hopefully I will give you a few new puzzles to worry at.

I should caution that the four trials aren't necessarily the sort of thing a 20th century American would call a trial. Don't expect Perry of House Mason to be showing up to argue fine points of law.

  He also even earlier said that there might be enough clues in books 1 and 2 to figure it out.

Fwiw I like your idea more. But based on this and also the way it was written that both Tyrion and Jaime independently arrived at Joffery, I think that was the case. 

 

[Mourning Star]

14 minutes ago, Makk said:

This was another really well argued theory that I enjoyed a lot. I never liked the idea that Joffery started all this, it seemed like arguably the weakest part of the entire story.

But breaking the 4th wall here, I have been under the impression for a long, long time that GRRM pretty much confirmed it was Joffery? After a quick net search all the way back in April 2000 I found...

  He also even earlier said that there might be enough clues in books 1 and 2 to figure it out.

Fwiw I like your idea more. But based on this and also the way it was written that both Tyrion and Jaime independently arrived at Joffery, I think that was the case. 

 

I have never seen GRRM confirm it was Joffery.

I think the crucial piece of evidence readers get in Storm which tells us it was Mance is when he admits to being in Winterfell at the time, with a bag of silver:

The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver -A Storm of Swords - Jon I

And while I think there might be enough clues in books 1 &2, it isn't until we hear about the bag of silver that we get any hard evidence. At no point is any hard evidence presented to readers that points to Joffery.

I think the theory that Mance sent the Catspaw assassin to kill Bran is supported by the GRRM quote you sited.

Not to mention that Storm was published after this quote, and lord knows GRRM has been known to change his plans. If someone has a more recent quote or actual confirmation from the man himself, obviously I would welcome learning about it.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Mance is a lot of things, ruthless amongst them, but he has a sense of honor.

Does he?  Why do we think that?  Can we believe anything he says?  He sure didn’t have a problem in letting Rattleshirt die in his place.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't see anything like this in his playbook. I don't think he'd kill an innocent boy, but if for reason he did feel he had to do it for the greater good or whatever, then I think he'd do it himself, not pay a catspaw.

No, if his purpose was to sow division, he absolutely wouldn’t do it himself.  After all the goal really isn’t to kill Bran.  The only ones who had a motive to silence Bran were Jaime and Cersei.  And it appears that they weren’t involved.

If his goal was to kill Bran then he would have done the deed himself.  But that’s not his desired goal.  He profits more from a botched attempt that can be then blamed on Robert.  The assassin and specifically his blade need to be caught and discovered.  

(And you can make the same argument for Littlefinger if that’s your desired boogeyman. )

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

Funnily enough, I think this absolutely applies but not in the way you imply. Rather, along with being willing to kill children, sending a catspaw is also not "honorable" because it is sending another to do your killing.

That's exactly what I mean. I relate it back to what I said about a true king.

A true king is a concept that is explored all through the series from several perspectives. From a story-telling point of view a true king, not necessarily a king on the Iron Throne, but a true king or queen will emerge at the climax of the story. There are a number of themes in the novels that actually define the qualities of a true king, in GRRM's eyes at least. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword encapsulates one such quality. These qualities will be important in resolving the central conflict. When the characters display these qualities, then and only then will they resolve the plot, and in doing so prove the themes to be true and make the story's point.

Mance has many of these qualities, so that's why I don't think this is his style.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think this distinction applies to battles, or if it does, Mance is equally guilty. He didn't scale the Wall or storm the gate, he sent minions to do it, and they died in droves, which is how you fight a war if we're being honest. An argument can be made that Aegon saved lives, at least of his own men, by winning decisively with dragons (although I don't know I love this perspective).

Mance is not afraid to lead from the front, we see that when he's taken by Stannis. Of course there are also times he commands and delegates, that's his role as their leader. But the important distinction here is that because Mance earned the respect of his people and the right to lead, his army follows him willingly. They share in his goals because his goals have their best interest at heart. They choose to follow him and as such they fight of their own free will and for the betterment of their own interest. It's quite a contrast from the high lords who play their game of thrones while the realm bleeds.

 

[asongofheresy]

This is a great follow up to Bloodraven not being TEC, and although I have a soft spot for Mance I do have to agree with him sending the catspaw, however I do not see him as a dragon seed just I didn't see Old Nan as one, if Mance is a bastard his cloak of red on black should be inverted, black on red with three scorpions(slashes) is the Qorgyle arms so Mace's father could be the Dornish Lord Commander of the Wall. 

[three-eyed monkey]

20 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Does he?  Why do we think that?  Can we believe anything he says?  He sure didn’t have a problem in letting Rattleshirt die in his place.

I did say ruthless. I don't think we can believe much of what he says but we should look at what he's trying to do, how he's trying to do it and what it is likely to cost him, other than his life of course which is constantly at risk it seems.

So given the choice between escaping south and having a relatively good life as a wandering bard, which is the life he seems to crave, he has decided to act to try and save the free folk from their doom, putting his own life on the line in the process. That's quite honorable.

Ah, you might say, but he's gained kinghood. True. But logic dictates that getting south to survive is only part of the goal, staying south in an environment in which you can survive must be part of the goal. Peace with the Northmen must be the ultimate aim. That's the best way of staying south. That means the Northmen and free folk living under one ruler. Mance knows the North will never accept him as a king but they will accept Jon, as will the free folk. So the best chance for integration is into a north ruled by Jon, which will cost Mance his own kingship, which is the price he will have to pay if he is to achieve his goal and save his subjects. That's quite honorable, if indeed it transpires.

As Dany would say, "A queen belongs not to herself but to her people." This is another quality of a true king or queen. It's one thing to say it, but Mance is doing it.

[Frey family reunion]

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I did say ruthless. I don't think we can believe much of what he says but we should look at what he's trying to do, how he's trying to do it and what it is likely to cost him, other than his life of course which is constantly at risk it seems.

Even if what you believe of Mance is true, that doesn't disqualify him for being the person behind the assassin.  In fact just the opposite, Mance is willing to be ruthless and deceptive to help save his people.  If he feels putting Bran's life in danger would help turn Winterfell's attention away from him and his army and towards the South, then he'd do it in a heartbeat.

But the issue, is whether or not Mance is honorable, not whether Mance wants to help "his people".  Those two are not necessarily the same.  So, no, in my belief Mance is not honorable.  

[Mourning Star]

8 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

That's exactly what I mean. I relate it back to what I said about a true king.

A true king is a concept that is explored all through the series from several perspectives. From a story-telling point of view a true king, not necessarily a king on the Iron Throne, but a true king or queen will emerge at the climax of the story. There are a number of themes in the novels that actually define the qualities of a true king, in GRRM's eyes at least. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword encapsulates one such quality. These qualities will be important in resolving the central conflict. When the characters display these qualities, then and only then will they resolve the plot, and in doing so prove the themes to be true and make the story's point.

I think we have very similar grand views of "kingship" here, but just think our viewpoints of how they apply to the story are slightly different.

8 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Mance has many of these qualities, so that's why I don't think this is his style.

I agree that Mance has some of these kingly qualities, but he, like many of the kings in the story, does not have all the desired traits a "true king" should have. I suspect that in the conclusion we will see a king who fills all of these characteristics.

[Mourning Star]

41 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

This is a great follow up to Bloodraven not being TEC, and although I have a soft spot for Mance I do have to agree with him sending the catspaw, however I do not see him as a dragon seed just I didn't see Old Nan as one, if Mance is a bastard his cloak of red on black should be inverted, black on red with three scorpions(slashes) is the Qorgyle arms so Mace's father could be the Dornish Lord Commander of the Wall. 

Thank you!

I have mixed feelings about Mance being a dragonseed myself.

As for the colors, Bloodraven's sigil was a white dragon breathing red fire on a field of black, inverted maybe this gets you back to red on black? With some white hair and white bearskin tents for show? I don't know, I kinda like the whole idea sometimes, and kinda hate it other times.

If I'm being honest the comments about sharing blood that surround Jon and Mance are maybe the most intriguing part for me. 

So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me.

-

"The wildling blood is the blood of the First Men, the same blood that flows in the veins of the Starks. As to a crown, do you see one?"

-

For eight thousand years the men of House Stark had lived and died to protect their people against such ravagers and reavers . . . and bastard-born or no, the same blood ran in his veins. Bran and Rickon are still at Winterfell besides. Maester Luwin, Ser Rodrik, Old Nan, Farlen the kennelmaster, Mikken at his forge and Gage by his ovens . . . everyone I ever knew, everyone I ever loved. If Jon must slay a man he half admired and almost liked to save them from the mercies of Rattleshirt and Harma Dogshead and the earless Magnar of Thenn, that was what he meant to do.

I don't know.

The idea that Mance is Qorgyle's son is interesting, but I don't know if I really see it, just to be honest.

[three-eyed monkey]

13 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Even if what you believe of Mance is true, that doesn't disqualify him for being the person behind the assassin.  In fact just the opposite, Mance is willing to be ruthless and deceptive to help save his people.  If he feels putting Bran's life in danger would help turn Winterfell's attention away from him and his army and towards the South, then he'd do it in a heartbeat.

Yes, he's ruthless, if he felt he had to do it to save his people then he might make that choice, but even then I don't think he'd use a catspaw. But I don't think a war between Robert and Ned serves him in the long term. One potential outcome is Robert coming down with all his force, winning, and appointing someone like Stannis as Warden of the North.

 

22 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But the issue, is whether or not Mance is honorable, not whether Mance wants to help "his people".  Those two are not necessarily the same. 

Is putting your life on the line to help better the lives of others not an honorable act? An act worthy of respect? I guess it depends on your definition.

38 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I agree that Mance has some of these kingly qualities, but he, like many of the kings in the story, does not have all the desired traits a "true king" should have. I suspect that in the conclusion we will see a king who fills all of these characteristics.

I'm not saying Mance will be the true king, his main role is more of a mentor to Jon as I see it. If Mance succeeds he will forfeit his kingship. Stannis, Aegon, Euron, Cesei, and other all other potential kings or queens will all be tested for these qualities by the plot and when they fail they will perish. For example, Dany will ultimately face the test of putting the realm's needs ahead of her own ambition to take back what is hers, which is why we find the quote about belonging to her people and not herself repeated through her arc. Talk is cheap, she needs to do it if she's going to have a positive arc. Jon will have to pass all the same tests. While someone like Stannis will fail when he sacrifices his daughter for victory because will not have understood that the only true sacrifice is self-sacrifice. A true king should know that.

[Nevets]

Mance, if he has any sense at all, doesn't want the Starks and Lannisters at each other's throats.  He wants the Starks fat, happy, and complacent, with their leader far away, busy doing other stuff, like running the kingdom. 

He certainly doesn't want Ned leaving Kings Landing in a huff, returning to Winterfell, and building up an army to defend against Lannister incursions or threats.  An army that could be pointed at wildlings just as easily.

[asongofheresy]

9 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Thank you!

I have mixed feelings about Mance being a dragonseed myself.

As for the colors, Bloodraven's sigil was a white dragon breathing red fire on a field of black, inverted maybe this gets you back to red on black? With some white hair and white bearskin tents for show? I don't know, I kinda like the whole idea sometimes, and kinda hate it other times.

If I'm being honest the comments about sharing blood that surround Jon and Mance are maybe the most intriguing part for me. 

So there it is—you have Bael's blood in you, same as me.

-

"The wildling blood is the blood of the First Men, the same blood that flows in the veins of the Starks. As to a crown, do you see one?"

-

For eight thousand years the men of House Stark had lived and died to protect their people against such ravagers and reavers . . . and bastard-born or no, the same blood ran in his veins. Bran and Rickon are still at Winterfell besides. Maester Luwin, Ser Rodrik, Old Nan, Farlen the kennelmaster, Mikken at his forge and Gage by his ovens . . . everyone I ever knew, everyone I ever loved. If Jon must slay a man he half admired and almost liked to save them from the mercies of Rattleshirt and Harma Dogshead and the earless Magnar of Thenn, that was what he meant to do.

I don't know.

The idea that Mance is Qorgyle's son is interesting, but I don't know if I really see it, just to be honest.

I brought up Mance and Qorgyle connection because I have a slightly unorthodox opinion of who Mance could really be, though as for the dragonseed angle last night I have realised if three slashes are three dragons then Mace's inverted colors could be a nod to Blackfyre as well as crackpot as it sounds this morning.