What was Stannis Supposed to do if his Assassination of Renly Failed?

[Stenkarazine]

7 hours ago, Frances Bean Corbray said:

Without the success of the shadowbaby, Stannis dies in battle, Renly's Stormland/Reach coalition remains together and largely intact and besieges the capital.  Tywin has no choice but to surrender to save Cersei and Tommen's (and Tyrion's and Jaime's) lives [Joffrey's goose is probably cooked regardless].  He could maybe beg Balon to save his ass, but Balon would only (correctly) read that as a sign of weakness and start raiding the Westerland Coast instead of/in addition to the North.

If Cersei doesn't do anything stupid with Sansa's life while besieged it might even work.  But she might.  And losing Arya might screw her anyway.  House Lannister gets ground to dust between Robb & Renly with Tyrion probably being the only survivor.  Bolton and Frey don't dare double cross Robb without Tywin providing insurance, thus a Northern reconquest of Winterfell and re-expulsion of the Ironborn becomes inevitable

And then it's just Robb and Renly haggling over how independent the North gets to be.

Exactly. The war is over in an instant.

I guess Joffrey could maybe save his head, if Tywin folds quick enough and Cersei's children are very publicly denounced as bastards: then they would pose no threat whatsoever and can be sent to live their lives in seclusion and indignity somewhere in the Westerlands. I actually think saving Jaime's life would be trickier, especially since he is Robb's captive (or is he already on the loose at the time ?).

Once firmly on his throne, I suppose Renly would eventually be able to bring the North to submission (ie. get Robb to renounce his title of king and swear fealty as Warden of the North). Invade the Riverlands, send the Royal/Reach Fleet to blockade White Harbor, and let the Ironborn loose on the other side. That, plus the growing threat of the Wildlings in the north, should be enough to convince Robb to renounce his crown.

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

50 minutes ago, Stenkarazine said:

Once firmly on his throne, I suppose Renly would eventually be able to bring the North to submission (ie. get Robb to renounce his title of king and swear fealty as Warden of the North). Invade the Riverlands, send the Royal/Reach Fleet to blockade White Harbor, and let the Ironborn loose on the other side. That, plus the growing threat of the Wildlings in the north, should be enough to convince Robb to renounce his crown.

This is a good plan. There is no point in sending loads of troops into the North. Blockade from afar. Aside from the Wildling problem the North doesn't have a great food supply due to people not setting aside a lot of their harvest and fewer men there because of the war.

[Tyrosh Lannister]

He'd fight to his death 

[Corvo the Crow]

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[Craving Peaches]

21 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Ummm... Stannis didn't assasinate Renly nor did he order the assassination, he didn't even know Renly was going to be assassinated, he only knew that he was goinf to die. Remember that there were two visions, one with Renly dying beneath SE (or something like that, can't recall details) and the other Renly defeating Stannis beneath the walls of KL. It turned out both of those visions were true as Loras in Renly's armor defeated Stannis. Stannis isn't stupid, he obviously knows that it was Mel who killed Renly, but he didn't know it beforehand, he just knew Renly's going to die and made sure he was in the right place at the right time for the prophecy to be fulfilled and collect Renly's army.

I think we are going to have to agree or disagree on this point because I really feel that Stannis knew exactly what he was doing when Renly died which is why he is in denial about it. Cressen mentioned Fratricide in the opening of ACoK, which I believe is the only time that term is used in the series. So I really don't think it's a case of just Stannis being in the right place at the right time. He had an active role in his brother's death.

[Corvo the Crow]

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[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Corvo the Crow said:

 I don't think so. As you can see Stannis has no cule at this point, he even talks about Renly being helpful. It is the visions they trust.

 

I would also like to get your attention on the bolded part.

The issue I have is his reaction after Renly dies. He really sounds like he's in denial over killing him. He goes on about the how the blood is not on his hands. Davos thinks something's suspicious.

Quote

"And for Renly?" The words were out before Davos could stop to consider them.

For a long time the king did not speak. Then, very softly, he said, "I dream of it sometimes. Of Renly's dying. A green tent, candles, a woman screaming. And blood." Stannis looked down at his hands. "I was still abed when he died. Your Devan will tell you. He tried to wake me. Dawn was nigh and my lords were waiting, fretting. I should have been ahorse, armoured. I knew Renly would attack at break of day. Devan says I thrashed and cried out, but what does it matter? It was a dream. I was in my tent when Renly died, and when I woke my hands were clean."

Ser Davos Seaworth could feel his phantom fingertips start to itch. Something is wrong here, the onetime smuggler thought. Yet he nodded and said, "I see."

If Stannis believed Renly's death was pre-ordained/all Melisandre's work and he didn't order him dead or have anything to do with it (which I highly doubt because Stannis is not the type to let his superiors run around doing things and not know about it) then why react like this? 

Also for your first quote I don't get the sense Stannis thinks Renly's helpful at all, he is annoyed at his good qualities because it has given him more soldiers and he thinks he's a traitor. And if Stannis has no clue at the point when both his wife and Maester Cressen are spelling out kill Renly to him then he's an idiot.

[Corvo the Crow]

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[Universal Sword Donor]

12 hours ago, Minsc said:

In terms of succession, both should have supported Joffrey.

Renly was fine with Joffrey as king as long as he was away from Cersei, whom he thought wanted him dead. It was only when he knew that Cersei would remain in power with Joff as king did he crown himself.

[Craving Peaches]

44 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I am saying he didn't know BEFOREHAND, obviously after it happened he is aware that it has something to do with him but he didn't know before, he didn't plan on being a shadow assassin. 

I really don't see how Stannis could not have known or at least strongly suspected that Renly was going to die based on his actions. Selyse's suggestion is that if Renly dies Stannis would get his army. Cressen is horrified by it. How else did Stannis think he would get the army? That Renly would just give it to him?

47 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Healthy. Autocorrect did helpful for some reason. He thinks Renly is healthy so unlikely to die all of a sudden.

Stannis says Renly is healthy. This means he is unlikely to die all of a sudden, as you say e.g. die of natural causes. Which means if that Stannis can only get Renly's army through his death, it involves him killing Renly. Stannis would have to be really stupid to not take the hint here.

[Corvo the Crow]

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[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

All of it is irrelevant. He didn't know Renly was going to die of a shadow assassin that Melisandre brought into world using Stannis' life force. Only that matters.

Well that is entirely dependant on how the life essence was transferred. If it involved some voluntary act on Stannis' part then I can't see any way he wouldn't have know what was going on. And he is unlikely to just let his subordinates no whatever they want without permission.

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also his actions is a very broad term. Perhaps during his charge, a bird comes shitting at Renly's visor, he reflexively tries to wipe it and drops his lance, his horse stumbles and Renly breaks his neck in the fall. This can be considered based on Stannis' action as well since it was Stannis that caused Renly to be there in the first place or perhaps Renly ate a dirty peach a few days back, even before knowing Stannis landed near SE, he gets WTEC(Westerotoxigenic E.Coli) and dies, no involvement of Stannis because he didn't know it yet or during their nightly jousts Renly's lance gets stuck in Loras' helm and he dies bleeding, no involvement of Stannis or perhaps involvement of Stannis because it happened after they marched on him? There are a million ways that Renly can die without Stannis being the shadow assassin these may or may not involve Stannis. All Stannis knew was Renly was going to die, whether through his actions or not, he didn't know how he was going to die. Did he not suscpect that Renlys prophesied death would be in battle? I doubt it, but it doesn't mean that Stannis killed him.

If he wasn't killing him by his own hands then he's still actively pursuing the scenario where Renly dies. Renly doesn't die unless Stannis sails to Storm's End to attack him.

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Read the quote above again. Stannis didn't appreciate that suggestion one bit. He literally gives Selyse the same reaction as he give Janos later on.

But after Cressen tells him not to, he turns back to his wife to continue hearing her council. So clearly he wasn't that put off by the suggestion - because it would get him an army.

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, it doesn't involve him killing Renly. It just involves Renly's death. The two are entirely different.  Which was, again, prophesied. Renly was prophesied to die but how of it isn't given, just the death. 

They are different but in terms of the prophecy Renly dying is still contingent on Stannis sailing to Storm's End, so either way, Stannis is choosing for his brother to die.

As I said before, I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this point. For me Stannis being so unaware that he was responsible for Renly's death requires a huge amount of failure to connect the dots, stupidity or just obliviousness from him.

[Corvo the Crow]

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[Craving Peaches]

31 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Renly is literally marching on his brother with a far superior force, does that mean he's out for his brother's blood and is intent on being a kinslayer? None of his lords seemed to think so.

No, and I'm not sure if this really works as a comparison because Stannis attacked Renly first. Renly was coming to defend his lands. Stannis was sailing there so Renly would die as the prophecy said. Renly left Stannis alone until he was attacked by him.

33 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Because Selyse says Renly is prophesied to die. It is prophesied, it will happen.

It happening is contingent on Stannis sailing to Storm's End, his active participation is required for Renly to die. If Stannis doesn't sail Renly doesn't die per the prophecy. Whereas with Renly coming with his army to defend his lands and people, Stannis' death is likely but not guaranteed, and since Renly cares about his image he would have as little to do with Stannis' death as possible. If Stannis believed in the prophecy then him sailing was him guarantying that Renly would die.

34 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Stannis is unaware of Renly dying by assassin, oh btw, if sailing to SE means choosing Renly to die, what does parlaying with him mean? He parlayed with him and even gave him till dawn.

Melisandre was the one who wanted and suggested the parley. Stannis was seemingly fine with not having one. She wanted it so she would see her target. Same thing with Courtnay Penrose, she needs to see them. Also Renly died before dawn so he didn't give him until dawn.

37 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Do you think Stannis this shows that Stannis was aware that Renly was going to be shadow assassinated or the opposite? Plan was to face him in battle, up until Renly died.

It shows he wasn't aware of the effects on himself but it doesn't show much else. Also Davos thinks something is off with what Stannis is saying, probably because he's lying/in denial.

41 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

The one thing that is hugely problematic here is a man as cynical and distrusting as Stannis following this prophesy. Even if Melisandre has told of shadow assassination, which she obviously didn't, he should've been skeptical about such a thing, so out of character for him to go relying on visions and promises of magical assassinations at this point in the story. Later on, not so since Melisandre has made such a display of her powers with visions, shadow assassinations and what not but not at this point in the story.

This is one of the reasons why I can't see how Stannis didn't know what was going on.

[sifth]

Retreat

I honestly don’t see any other option for him.

[Craving Peaches]

22 minutes ago, sifth said:

Retreat

I honestly don’t see any other option for him.

How successful do you think the retreat would be?

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

How successful do you think the retreat would be?

Not sure, Renly didn’t have any ships however. So he had an advantage on that front.

[Craving Peaches]

2 hours ago, sifth said:

Not sure, Renly didn’t have any ships however. So he had an advantage on that front.

I think he could make a quick getaway to Dragonstone, but I imagine he wouldn't manage to get all his forces with him. He could stay on Dragonstone for a while, but when Renly takes the capital and the Redwyne twin hostage situation with Cersei is resolved, Renly would have the Redwyne fleet so might try to attack.

Kind of a separate issue but I think Stannis would have issues paying his sellswords and sellsails at this point.

[Craving Peaches]

On 10/5/2022 at 4:53 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Renly was fine with Joffrey as king as long as he was away from Cersei, whom he thought wanted him dead. It was only when he knew that Cersei would remain in power with Joff as king did he crown himself.

People often overlook this when going on about how 'power-hungry' Renly was. But him deciding to be king is almost like a last resort. Twice before he tries alternative methods to reduce Lannister/Cersei's influence and it's only after everything's going wrong that he claims the crown.

[Ring3r]

On 10/4/2022 at 2:45 AM, Craving Peaches said:

So imagine for whatever reason the Shadow Assassin doesn't work. Either it fails to materialise, kills the wrong target etc.

What is Stannis supposed to do now? He was not in a great position - in fact he was in a very bad one. He was outnumbered 4-1, his opponent had better quality troops, he had a hostile fortress to his back, a large portion of his army was composed of fickle sellswords, he had limited options to retreat...There is also no mention of Stannis having any defensive fieldworks set up (looks like he was really banking on that assassination...)

And what was he supposed to do other than retreat? People bring up comparisons to battles like Cannae and Austerlitz but apart from being in different time periods with different technology, strategy etc. the terrains and other aspects of these battles were quite different, so I really don't think they are comparable. I don't see how Stannis could win at all. It seems to be set up to be a battle impossible for him to 'win' conventionally. At best I can see him retreating with a much diminished portion of his army like after the Blackwater...

The only advantage Stannis has is the sun which really isn't that good when you think about it, because apart from being rendered instantly useless if there are any clouds, it also makes Renly's job of a cavalry charge easier, because the horses are less likely to shy away from charging.

I'm pretty sure he drank the Koolaid and had no back-up plan.  He never thought that far - Mel is whispering in his ear and she has real power. The second she realizes her mistake, she will abandon him, and he will whither and die.  IMO.