Craving Peaches Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 55 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: The idea that usurpation and civil war is the only way to stay safe... Idk how Renly fans do it. It is because it gets him a much larger army to fight the Lannisters with...And there was a civil war happening already...and there was usurpation happening already... 56 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: He could just go to Storms End and have a sleepover with Loras if Mace says he can't have any friends over at Highgarden tonight. And then he'd be left with only ~25,000 troops to fight the Lannisters with, rather than the ~100,000 he actually gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Occam might offer a simpler explanation for the only-man-who-knows-he-is-next-in-line-for-the-throne-he-craves-and-the-current-occupant-is-surrounded-by-deadly-enemies-he-doesn’t-know-about and with an established record of end justifies means and a fully functioning messiah complex holing up on a magic island with a murderous witch who can kill in various ways…until, gasp, that occupant dies mysteriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alester Florent Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said: He could just go to Storms End and have a sleepover with Loras if Mace says he can't have any friends over at Highgarden tonight. The idea that usurpation and civil war is the only way to stay safe... Idk how Renly fans do it. This topic has been discussed to death, but I'm always up for a Renly defence. Renly leaves King's Landing because he's recognised Ned's plan is suicidal, and he heads to his own powerbase to the south, rather than anywhere else, because that's the obvious place to go. Then he sees Cersei trample over the law to execute Ned, who he knows to be innocent, and immediately afterwards he is summoned back to King's Landing. He knows Cersei considers him a threat, he knows Joffrey is a little shit, and he knows that neither of them care about the legalities, so walking back into King's Landing on their terms is pretty much committing suicide on the same terms as Ned. So he has a chat with his mates the Tyrells to decide what they should do. The clock is ticking because the longer Joff is in power the longer he has to build up his powerbase. Renly knows that the problem is Joff just as much as it is Cersei, so they can't really take up arms on the basis of "evil councillors" or the like, or even if they do they know that the plan ends with Joff's elimination either way. They need a plan for their endgame, which really means an alternative candidate as king. Maybe Stannis is suggested, on the basis they can somehow get Robert's marriage to Cersei thrown out, but this idea will falter quickly once discussed: Stannis isn't answering his mail, it seems unlikely that Stannis would take up arms against the apparently lawful king, and Renly's allies make it clear Stannis would be an unnaceptable king anyway. So the next obvious candidate is Renly himself, and that idea seems like a goer. Now, there might have been some better options for Renly. Perhaps a straight up rebellion against Joffrey and allying with Robb to that end - but that still leaves the question of what their endgame is. But sitting around doing nothing is not an option, and he can't wait for Stannis to declare a hand he doesn't know Stannis has before he makes his move. If Stannis declares first, and I still don't really know why he doesn't since he has had the opportunity to plan for this, then that changes the board, and makes it conceivably possible to thrash out a deal where Stannis provides the legitimacy and Renly provides the charisma. But Stannis doesn't declare until after Renly by which stage it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said: And then he'd be left with only ~25,000 troops to fight the Lannisters with, rather than the ~100,000 he actually gets. Hed still be pretty safe man hes got ome of westeros stupidly almost unsiegable castles(stormsend) the stormlamds 30k men and stannis dragomstone with his 7k or so and 100 ships or so fleet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: Hed still be pretty safe man hes got ome of westeros stupidly almost unsiegable castles(stormsend) the stormlamds 30k men and stannis dragomstone with his 7k or so and 100 ships or so fleet!!! Yes but if your life was on the line you would want to be more than pretty safe, you would want to be as safe as possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said: Yes but if your life was on the line you would want to be more than pretty safe, you would want to be as safe as possible... I know your a renly fan based on username and agree he had got a hard.choice id still say hed be safe enough in stormsend backed by almost the full stormlanders might and if asked the extra might of stannis dragonstone forces ,mercs and the part of the royal fleet that stayed with him! The issue is renly also wanted to be king, years of sitting watching his incompetent drunk brother probably convinced him (probably rightly) hed do a far better job ruling, now to his credit he offered the job to ned who he thought was clearly competent enough for the job (probably right) but he was in the end too honourable. His earlier plans to slip.margery into roberts bed probably stem from both his desire to get the cold lannister harpy away from his brother but also clearly the tyrells influence too....we mustnt discount the influence of his long time 'in laws' who clearly have been angling to climb higher for some time esp now that tyrell intermarriages have sewn up the reach for them!!! The thorn being they cant have a stannis king with florents insisting the reach lordship should be theirs ..so a factor there is poor renly is being offered the unquestioned superpower of the 7 kingdoms might but at a price that he cannot back his brother! Then of course at the same time tyrion sends mycella to dorne in exchnage for the dornish to send forces into the passes , the pro stannis marcher lords must hold.their forces in response thus robbing stannis of any potential backing in his hometurf...this of course helps renly with his other quandry..stannis is breathtakingly stubborn but is also a man with exact measures of military might in renlys mind (or anyone with an ounce of reason) his big brother must surely see sense in backing down thus avoiding kinslaying! Shit when stannis defies all military logic and still goes to war renly goes to personaly offer him the best deal he could possibly give (literalty a peach of a deal) whichis seemingly suicidaly rejected by the vastly outnumbered stannis troops! Renlys end could not have logicaly been predicted , he made seemingly all the right moves but death by shadow assasin isnt something a reasoned mind plans for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: id still say hed be safe enough in stormsend backed by almost the full stormlanders might and if asked the extra might of stannis dragonstone forces ,mercs and the part of the royal fleet that stayed with him! It's possible. But I think most people in that situation would take 100K troops over 25K. And the Reach's food supplies as well. Also at the beginning I think people might have expected Tywin to make short work of Robb in terms of him being young, inexperienced etc. meaning that then Tywin would have maybe 30-40K troops left to fight the 25K. You have to remember Stannis and the ships likely do not factor into Renly's planning at all because he's heard nothing from Stannis for around a year, for all he knows Stannis is backing Joffrey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said: It's possible. But I think most people in that situation would take 100K troops over 25K. And the Reach's food supplies as well. Also at the beginning I think people might have expected Tywin to make short work of Robb in terms of him being young, inexperienced etc. meaning that then Tywin would have maybe 30-40K troops left to fight the 25K. You have to remember Stannis and the ships likely do not factor into Renly's planning at all because he's heard nothing from Stannis for around a year, for all he knows Stannis is backing Joffrey. Maybe hed probably have thought as most would that robbs forces would include the vale as well as riverlands thus theyd be led by say hoster , the blackfish or more likely a council with prominant north lords and robb just as figurehead......plus even with robb in charge those look like steep odds numbers wide for tywins forces to overcome!!! Side note/what if : itd have been interesting to see how tywin could have dealt with that scenario, hed have had to bring his forces out of harenhal to engage the valemen marching past harrnehall from the eyrie in open battle, hope to win then charge like a maniac over to riverrunnto stop jamies forced being wiped out by the northern forces!! His only real hope to pull that off would be engaging walder frey earlier (through his sister) and offering him a prize so juicy he has to use the twins to block the northerners!! Hed probably have had to every spare lanister marry a frey , cersei included !! As for stannistheres plenty of ravens in stormlands if renly had decided not to become king he could have simply asked to stand beside his brother vs their enemies. Thats 30k stormlanders , 7kish dragonstome forces stannis raised himself and the fleet!!! More then sufficent esp given the general in charge. so yeah id say a desire to have the kinfgdom ruled well after so much misrule probably played a part too not just his personal safety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: As for stannistheres plenty of ravens in stormlands if renly had decided not to become king he could have simply asked to stand beside his brother vs their enemies. But Renly has no idea whom Stannis' enemies are. If Stannis wants to side with the Lannisters that's no good for Renly. Also, Dragonstone has nowhere near 7K even with sellswords. 19 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: so yeah id say a desire to have the kinfgdom ruled well after so much misrule probably played a part too not just his personal safety Yeah personal safety is not the only factor but it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alester Florent Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: As for stannistheres plenty of ravens in stormlands if renly had decided not to become king he could have simply asked to stand beside his brother vs their enemies. Thats 30k stormlanders , 7kish dragonstome forces stannis raised himself and the fleet!!! More then sufficent esp given the general in charge. Stannis isn't answering ravens. He pointedly doesn't inform anyone of his plans, or even acknowledge any enquiries, until the fallout from Robert's death is well underway, then gets annoyed that other people made plans without him. I also think the fandom (or wt least his fans) overrate Stannis as a general. He's fine, but I don't think he's any better than Tywin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 29 minutes ago, Alester Florent said: I also think the fandom (or wt least his fans) overrate Stannis as a general. One could make the case he is a good admiral since he beat Victarion commanding the Iron Fleet (though we don't really know that much about what happened there), however he has a mixed track record on land at best. He loses the decisive battle he needs to win, I don't count him assassinating Renly as any 'battle', and I think his victory over the Wildlings could have been accomplished by anyone. So when people say he is 'the best military mind in Westeros' I really doubt it. I mean as of now his army is starving in the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Fossoway Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I can't catch the relation between the milk of the poppy and these proposed actions as Hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Alester Florent said: Stannis isn't answering ravens. He pointedly doesn't inform anyone of his plans, or even acknowledge any enquiries, until the fallout from Robert's death is well underway, then gets annoyed that other people made plans without him. I also think the fandom (or wt least his fans) overrate Stannis as a general. He's fine, but I don't think he's any better than Tywin. Do we know if renly even tried outside of kl? where we know all messages to stannis that 'good old neutral pycelle' sends just somehow wont get there ...must be a hawk or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 49 minutes ago, Jon Fossoway said: I can't catch the relation between the milk of the poppy and these proposed actions as Hand. Ie him being a bit loopier (or more coherent) and doing something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: Do we know if renly even tried outside of kl? where we know all messages to stannis that 'good old neutral pycelle' sends just somehow wont get there Did anyone send anything to Stannis not via Pycelle? Pycelle is the only one who knows how to send a text at least in KL, I guess it's possible for Robert to have sent a message on the way north, but why would he do that? Like why Renly would ever hit up Stannis when we know he frustrates him so. 7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: must be a hawk or something A red one? Stannis is all about the post office at the start of Clash, so he's probably been staring at his inbox since JonA passed. And while it remained empty it probably did a number on Stannis' confidence or his team building mindset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said: But Renly has no idea whom Stannis' enemies are. If Stannis wants to side with the Lannisters that's no good for Renly. Also, Dragonstone has nowhere near 7K even with sellswords. Yeah personal safety is not the only factor but it is there. Yeah he knows its the lannisters , he literaly says as much to ned begging him to take the reigns Sorry the 7k number was a miscount stannis has 5k frkm dragonstone and the surrounding isles..the extra 2k i included were florents who dont fully jump.ship til renly dies Yeah its a pity , to be fair renly seems sharp enough to see the potential brewing conflict between his family and stannis snd his florent wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: Did anyone send anything to Stannis not via Pycelle? Pycelle is the only one who knows how to send a text at least in KL, I guess it's possible for Robert to have sent a message on the way north, but why would he do that? Like why Renly would ever hit up Stannis when we know he frustrates him so. A red one? Stannis is all about the post office at the start of Clash, so he's probably been staring at his inbox since JonA passed. And while it remained empty it probably did a number on Stannis' confidence or his team building mindset Yeah ned gets fustrated and sends a human messager....who meets with an 'accident' Edit yes its tommard ' fat tom' Yeah i wonder how many letters went missing along the lines of ' look i know we dont get along.but we gotta talk about jon arryns death ' etc with pycelle simply shrugging his shoulders ' ooh that stubborn stannis he wont reply the rascal' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: Yeah ned gets fustrated and sends a human messager... Huh, I don't remember that. One northman? Citation please? 8 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: who meets with an 'accident' Well that doesn't sound like Pycelle. I suppose Cersei but that seems a bit much for her too. Perhaps Renly? Lol Or perhaps it was just an accident 11 minutes ago, astarkchoice said: Yeah i wonder how many letters went missing along the lines of ' look i know we dont get along.but we gotta talk about jon arryns death ' etc with pycelle simply shrugging his shoulders ' ooh that stubborn stannis he wont reply the rascal' Lol, classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alester Florent Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Ned told Fat Tom to deliver a message to Stannis personally on his way home with Sansa and Arya. But of course that ship never leaves, and Tom is killed in the throne room during Cersei's coup. It might have been sensible for Ned to send that ship before confronting Cersei in the throne room, of course... but since Sansa told Cersei his plan anyway, it would probably have failed either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 29 minutes ago, Alester Florent said: Ned told Fat Tom to deliver a message to Stannis personally on his way home with Sansa and Arya. But of course that ship never leaves, and Tom is killed in the throne room during Cersei's coup. It might have been sensible for Ned to send that ship before confronting Cersei in the throne room, of course... but since Sansa told Cersei his plan anyway, it would probably have failed either way. Right right, that sounds kinda familiar. Interesting what if scenario here, if the daughters escaped would Stannis keep them as a hostage? How would uncrowned Robb respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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