The Alyn Velaryon + Samantha Tarly network

[Hippocras]

  

On 11/1/2023 at 9:06 AM, Hippocras said:

This comment got me thinking a bit. I think it is a strong point. During the reign of Aegon III the Faith was still based at Oldtown. While a very very large number of powerful Houses lost a great deal of money from the fall of the Rogare Bank (text based fact, trigger Lord Varys's objections) the Hightowers led by Sam Tarly founded a bank, invested whatever they had left wisely and became financiers for a subset of families in Westeros. So while their influence over the church waned, their financial influence grew.

Something probably to examine in another thread is the nature and extent of this influence network. We know, for example, that Alyn Velaryon and Sam Tarly became friends. We also know that even though Alyn subdued Isembard Arryn's attempt to rule the Vale, he also recommended him as Master of Coin and worked with him to reform taxes and repair some of the damage done to various families by the collapse of the Rogare bank. So Sam Tarly controlled a Bank. She was connected potentially via Alyn Velaryon to Isembard Arryn, Master of Coin. She had a House Rowan mother, possibly the sister of Thaddeus Rowan. She was married to a Hightower, and Lyonel had an unspecified close family connection to House Redwyne. 

I think if we looked a the list of maidens from the Reach that she cheekily recommended to wed Aegon, we could see it as a glimpse of which families in the Reach that she had favourable connections to. A list of families NOT listed would therefore be interesting to see.

The secret siege resulted in the absolute shattering of Thaddeus Rowan due to his torture. As he was likely Sam Tarly's uncle, I doubt that went over well with her. So Peake and his gang made Sam Tarly, with all of her connections, into a bitter enemy I would say. The plot thickens!

One of the maidens that Sam recommended Aegon III marry was her sister Sansara. In another thread I mentioned a possible connection between the name Sansara and the name Sansa (speculative). Given that Thaddeus Rowan and Torrhen Manderly were both prominent players in the early reign of Aegon III, and given that both of their Houses were looking for advantageous matches at the time, the speculation that Sansara Tarly soon married Torrhen Manderly is not without basis. What is certain, regardless of whether Sansara was the mother, is that Jeyne Manderly, probably one of Torrhen's daughters, married Cregan Stark's son Rickon. Jeyne was the name of Sam and Sansara's Rowan mother, and Jeyne and Rickon then had a daughter they named Sansa. Families do tend to repeat names.

Manderly is connected to the new financial network by the fact that it was him who took Alyn's advice and appointed Isembard Arryn as Master of Coin. House Manderly also has a vague connection to silver, apparently with the ability to mint it. I don't know if they can actually mine it in the North or if their source is elsewhere, but having House Manderly, as a source of coin for an emerging financial network is another argument for why Sansara might have been matched with House Manderly at that point in time.

We know that Sansara was clever and very well-read. A true ancestor of Samwell. If my speculation is correct we are starting to see the general shape of a broad network of families during the reign of Aegon III that was centered around Sam's financial network on the one hand, Alyn Velaryon's voyages and exploits, and his resulting friendships on the other, and also based to a large degree on formative alliances built as the Kingdoms attempted to heal from the Dance.

 

I wanted to pull out this post from a different thread, in hope of starting a discussion of the shape of loyalties and alliances in the period immediately following Aegon III's regency up until the end of his reign.

[SaffronLady]

I sort of want to think about just how Unwin Peake, a not cunning lord of a diminished House, managed have enough backing to rise to and cling on to the Handship. Who were his connections, and who even gave him the guts to break Lord Rowan? The Tyrells?

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I sort of want to think about just how Unwin Peake, a not cunning lord of a diminished House, managed have enough backing to rise to and cling on to the Handship. Who were his connections, and who even gave him the guts to break Lord Rowan? The Tyrells?

I know right? This whole period in history sets up the Blackfyre era, and yet is a bit of a black hole. Still the broad outline has something to do with these players:

Sam Tarly
Various other widows who were left running things
Unwin Peake + various other disgruntled/ambitious Greens
Alyn Velaryon and friends (including Benjicot Blackwood)
Baela Targaryen
Rhaena Targaryen
Aliandra Martell + Stormlands families she antagonized
Child of Aemond and Alys
Daeron pretenders
Dragon Killers

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I sort of want to think about just how Unwin Peake, a not cunning lord of a diminished House, managed have enough backing to rise to and cling on to the Handship. Who were his connections, and who even gave him the guts to break Lord Rowan? The Tyrells?

Munkun's support was probably important in establishing his power, but he was also arguably the de facto leader of the Greens at the end of the war, and probably had at least tacit support from his former allies in getting himself set up. Outwardly, he likely seemed like a fairly competent and effective Hand, too, especially if Munkun was in charge of the correspondence. Then he got his placemen into the Kingsguard and other key positions, and his own brute squad to keep the rest of the inner court quiet... it would have been increasingly difficult to stop him without resorting to a violent (and not necessarily successful) coup: only after the Secret Siege was his system dismantled. Of course, Unwin was already gone by then, having overplayed his hand by resigning, but that was probably the only way to get rid of him short of something like the Siege.

He was most likely a charismatic and forceful individual and as we see from real life, it's not uncommon for such people to reach high office if they keep pushing and nobody feels confident enough to stop them - limited intelligence or not.

[Hippocras]

13 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

He was most likely a charismatic and forceful individual and as we see from real life, it's not uncommon for such people to reach high office if they keep pushing and nobody feels confident enough to stop them - limited intelligence or not.

Har!

[SaffronLady]

11 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Munkun's support was probably important in establishing his power, but he was also arguably the de facto leader of the Greens at the end of the war, and probably had at least tacit support from his former allies in getting himself set up. Outwardly, he likely seemed like a fairly competent and effective Hand, too, especially if Munkun was in charge of the correspondence. Then he got his placemen into the Kingsguard and other key positions, and his own brute squad to keep the rest of the inner court quiet... it would have been increasingly difficult to stop him without resorting to a violent (and not necessarily successful) coup: only after the Secret Siege was his system dismantled. Of course, Unwin was already gone by then, having overplayed his hand by resigning, but that was probably the only way to get rid of him short of something like the Siege.

He was most likely a charismatic and forceful individual and as we see from real life, it's not uncommon for such people to reach high office if they keep pushing and nobody feels confident enough to stop them - limited intelligence or not.

Interesting angle. But I find it hard to process that, despite the deaths of prominent lords such as Borros Baratheon, Unwin of all people rose to the top. Or was it that Lyonel HT wasn't all lovey-dovey with his stepmom as we are lead to believe?

48 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Aliandra Martell + Stormlands families she antagonized

The Martells always like nothing better than a good fuck don't they….

49 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Child of Aemond and Alys
Daeron pretenders
Dragon Killers

And the dragon relations! I ran with the theory that Aemond didn't actually have a kid born and that was just a trick played by Alys, but if it turns out there really was such a child, it would be interesting.

Mortal men who raise their weapons against dragons still get me cheering them on even though I like dragons.

[Hippocras]

I want to come back to this topic because I remain perplexed by this period in history. We can't come to any firm conclusions but there are so many details that are STRANGE in a way that is probably deliberate on the part of GRRM but leaves us scratching our heads.

Why, for example, did the small council consider Thaddeus Rowan, 40 years Baela's senior, to be suitable to wed her while ruling out Kermit Tully and Benjicot Blackwood? Irrelevant in a way because she did not marry any of them. But there is no clear reason at all why Benjicot and Kermit were unsuitable. Was that just pure residual resentment on the part of a bunch of Greens or did something else happen to annoy them?

Edited January 8 by Hippocras

[James Steller]

40 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I want to come back to this topic because I remain perplexed by this period in history. We can't come to any firm conclusions but there are so many details that are STRANGE in a way that is probably deliberate on the part of GRRM but leaves us scratching our heads.

Why, for example, did the small council consider Thaddeus Rowan, 40 years Baela's senior, to be suitable to wed her while ruling out Kermit Tully and Benjicot Blackwood? Irrelevant in a way because she did not marry any of them. But there is no clear reason at all why Benjicot and Kermit were unsuitable. Was that just pure residual resentment on the part of a bunch of Greens or did something else happen to annoy them?

Baela is the wild twin, and a potential heir to the throne. Kermit and Oscar Tully are young hotheads who have ambition for days. The council wanted to contain Baela, to quench the flame, so to speak. Marrying her to either of the Tully boys would have been like pouring gasoline on the flame.

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, James Steller said:

Baela is the wild twin, and a potential heir to the throne. Kermit and Oscar Tully are young hotheads who have ambition for days. The council wanted to contain Baela, to quench the flame, so to speak. Marrying her to either of the Tully boys would have been like pouring gasoline on the flame.

I am not really certain we know enough about KT or BB to say that. They were young. But both proved their leadership, and any initial hot-headedness was not a factor by the time they had led several battles and both had chosen more diplomatic approaches to ending the war.

Anyway, there is no question that Kermit and Benjicot were in a similar situation as Alyn and were his friends and allies.

[Hippocras]

Kermit Tully was described as a major leader who brought his house to greater influence than it had ever previously enjoyed. How and why? We already know he was denied a key marriage. He was denied a place on the Council, he was not leading the Vale expedition as Benjicot was. So what form did this influence take?

[Thomaerys Velaryon]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

So what form did this influence take?

I can see two options:

• Political: Kermit might somehow have managed to boost the Tully influence and power within the riverlands and improve the image of House Tully in general. I'm guessing he might be a proto-Hoster Tully in the sense that we know Hoster was politically savvy and very busy always visiting his vassals, settling feuds, etc.
• Martial: Kermit was only 19 when the Dance ended and he will be 45 when Daeron I launch his Conquest of Dorne. Kermit might have proven a good commander during that war as well.

[Hippocras]

Alyn's Friends and Allies:

1. From the Dance
- Benjicot Blackwood
- Kermit Tully
- Cregan Stark and Alysanne Blackwood?
- Other?
 

2. From the Ironborn Campaign
- Samantha Tarly and Lyonel Hightower
-Racallio Ryndoon (sort-of)
- Aliandra Martell (sort-of)
- Johanna (Westerling) Lannister
- House Costayne
- House Rogare
- Thaddeus Rowan (Regent in 134, honours for returning Viserys)
- Corwyn Corbray (Regent in 134, honours for returning Viserys)
 

3. From the Vale Campaign
- Isembard Arryn (enemy turned ally, recommended for small council)
- Joffrey Arryn
- Benjicot Blackwood again, deeper
- Vale Houses won over with diplomacy?
 

4. From the Financial Fallout of the Rogare Bank Collapse
- Samantha Tarly and the Bank of Oldtown
- New trade friends on route to Volantis, second voyage
 

5. Other Voyages
- ?
 

6. Conquest of Dorne
- ?

 

 

Edited January 13 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

wrong thread

Edited January 14 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

  

On 1/19/2024 at 10:49 PM, Landis said:

Ooookay, Miss Samantha Tarly's ally block: 

• House Hightower, of course
• Rhaena Targaryen
  • marries Garmund Hightower, have a bunch of kids; theoretically in case Sam can't get her own kids by Lyonel legitimized
• Alyn Velaryon & Baela Targaryen
• Daenaera Velaryon
  • Unclear if this is direct, or just through Rhaena and Baela
• Torrhen Manderly
  • longstanding supporter of the Velaryons/Princess Rhaenys;
  • longstanding enmity with Peake family, which drove the Manderlys out of the Reach prior to the Conquest
• Rogare Family
  • Lotho Rogare
    • Torrhen Manderly provides him with a choice to take the black or lose his right hand; decides to lose his right hand
    • Proceeds to go immediately to Oldtown, where he is protected by Lady Sam
    • Theory: Lotho Rogare ends up being married to one of the many women Sam previously suggested as candidates for Aegon; he has at least one daughter, who is then married to a brother of Ronnel Penrose; daughter of Lotho Rogare + brother of Ronnel Penrose = Aelinor Penrose, who is married to Aerys I Targaryen (we've had lots of confusion over how Aelinor could have been Aerys' cousin while not being descended from Elaena Targaryen, and there being a lack of clarity on when/whether there was a match between a Penrose and a Martell daughter of Aerys' aunt Daenerys, and the timelines never match up; this is resolved by Aerys' relation to Aelinor having nothing at all to do with being a Targaryen cousin, instead being a cousin through the fact that his grandmother Larra Rogare was the sister of Aelinor's grandfather, Lotho Rogare)
  • Roggerio Rogare: names his Kings Landing brothel the Mermaid, and then his subsequent ship-bourne brothel the Mermaid's Daughter: potential reference to Manderly patronage, perhaps? (this may be a prelude to a later question about the Manderlys, their relationship to ships like the Merling King, and the evidence of a relationship with Braavos)
• House Penrose
  • Lucinda Penrose is made Daenaera's lady-in-waiting after she fails to catch Aegon III's eye herself after the dastardly Peakes appear to destroy her candidacy by physically maiming her
    • This appears to have been intended by the alliance as a way to provide Daenaera with support in Kings Landing against the Peakes and their faction
    • It was a miscalculation, however, as Lucinda wanted to marry Aegon for her own purposes, and seemingly gets roped into a plot to murder Aegon III and Daenaera, motivated (on Lucinda's side, at least) as a means of revenge against Daenaera for ~stealing her man
    • Despite participating in an assassination attempt (!!!) against the King, Torrhen Manderly is lenient with Lucinda and doesn't have her killed: like Lotho Rogare, she is allowed to lose a body part (her already-maimed nose, parallel to Lotho losing what is actually his lesser right hand) and become a septa instead of being executed
  • Theoretical marriage of a daughter of Lotho Rogare to a brother of Ronnel Penrose mentioned above
  • Despite Lucinda Penrose trying to murder Daenaera and Aegon III, they inexplicably decide to marry their daughter, Elaena Targaryen, to Ronnel Penrose (possibly Lucinda's nephew?)
    • Elaena is very clearly immersed in Velaryonisms, with her alleged relationship with Alyn (seemingly after Baela dies early, possibly in childbirth?), but the decision to name two of her daughters in reference to Baela and Rhaena's mother and grandmother long after Alyn is dead (Alyn, who wouldn't have had any relationship with either Laena or Jocelyn; it makes no sense for Elaena to refer to them as a way to honour Alyn, who similarly has no way of being the girls' father)
    • Elaena is effectively Daeron II's master of coin through her husband; she is also known to being in direct communication with the Iron Bank later on, which is another possible correlation with the Manderlys, as suggested above
    • It appears to be the result of Elaena's influence in her cousin Daeron II's court that allows for the arrangement of a marriage between Daeron II's son Aerys to her niece, Aelinor Penrose
  • House Penrose is later treated to an apparent extermination campaign during the First Blackfyre Rebellion, with Quentyn Ball killing all the sons of a "Lady Penrose" with the exception of the youngest boy as a favour to Lady Penrose
    • It is unclear who this Lady Penrose is, but I would suggest that the most reasonable one would be Aelinor Penrose's mother (i.e., the daughter of Lotho Rogare)
    • Elaena herself is expected to still be the Lady Penrose at this time, being only 46 years old, and none of her daughters would be old enough in 196 to have had at least three sons
    • Either way, this is an indication that House Penrose is, like Elaena, associated with support of Daeron II instead of Daemon Blackfyre, despite Daemon being Elaena's nephew
    • This also opens up a question about the nature of the relationship between this bloc and Dorne (especially when we consider that Aliandra Martell--grandmother or great aunt of Daeron II's wife Myriah Martell--was rumoured to have had an affair with Alyn Velaryon, and had also married Drazenko Rogare--Lotho and Roggerio's uncle--who was allegedly assassinated by the Faceless Men of Braavos)

Transfering this conversation. Original post,

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

@Landis

House Mandery

Great point about the Peakes vs. Manderlys. I had not really factored that in to the post-dance era but you are probably right. Also great point about how frequently the Manderlys had been alligned with Velaryons. Some detective work needed on the details of that connection still.

I think ultimately you might be on to something on a Manderly link to the Rogares for yet one more reason: the name Lysara. It appears only twice. One Lysara is Lara Rogare's older sister. The other was born a Karstark in the North. Weird! My guess is that Torrhen Manderly is the reason, by some circuitous route, why a descendant of House Rogare ended up born into House Karstark. The downfall of House Rogare was quick and brutal but by 139 they must have turned things around significantly since we know that Larra was able to return to Lys and live there until 145 AC without being treated as her siblings had been a few years earlier.

 

House Penrose

Regarding Aelinor Penrose: She certainly descended from either Rhaena or Baela. Of that we can be confident. But since she is indicated as her husband Aerys I's cousin, and since Baela and Rhaena's descendants would have by then been too far removed in the family tree to really qualify as cousins, I think it is a strong possibility that Aelinor's mother was a younger sister of Myriah Martell making Aelinor Aerys's maternal first cousin. My logic is that there were a great number of marriages arranged during and after Baelor's reign between Dornish houses and their traditional enemies in the Reach and Stormlands. Penroses were a Marcher House from the Stormlands, so definitely prime candidates. I am therefore not very convinced of your Rogare theory. I think Aelinor being a maternal cousin is the most logical explanation. Of course, Aelinor could have been BOTH a Rogare descendant AND a maternal first cousin via Aliandra Martell and Drazenko Rogare.

So, a daughter of Baela or Rhaena married Lord Penrose and had a son in 148-158 AC. Their son married Myriah Martell's sister somewhere during the reign of Baelor or Viserys, so in or before 172 AC. Their granddaughter Aelinor was born in or after 172 AC. Ronnel was possibly Aelinor's uncle, so descended from Rhaena or Baela but not from a Martell mother as Aelinor was.

 

And reply.

 

@Landis

I also wanted to add that I wonder if the relationship between Manderlys and Rogares was more antagonistic than that. Remember, Torrhen Manderly was the one who sentenced Larra's brothers. Roggerio naming a floating brothel the Mermaid's Daughter may well be a reference to Manderly, but not the complimentary kind. In which case the Karstarks may have allied with the Rogares in or around that generation because they disliked the Manderlys and wanted to spite them. Maybe the antagonism with the Manderlys was even older than the sentencing. Maybe the Manderlys were connected to a rival faction in Lys or Tyrosh, and so bad blood from the Daughters' War as well as simply the internal rivalries of the Free Cities.

  

On 11/2/2023 at 2:35 PM, SaffronLady said:

I sort of want to think about just how Unwin Peake, a not cunning lord of a diminished House, managed have enough backing to rise to and cling on to the Handship. Who were his connections, and who even gave him the guts to break Lord Rowan? The Tyrells?

I get the sense the rivalries of this time are extremely complex and interesting. As Landis pointed out above, the Manderly-Peake resentment was old and bitter. So Unwin Peake and Torrhen Manderly were unlikely to have been allies. On the other hand a certain amount of bitterness may have existed between the Manderlys and the Rogares, at least after 135, but perhaps before as well. So the position of House Manderly from 132 to 136 is not at all clear. It is, in this sense notable that Torrhen Manderly was the one to appoint Gedmund Peake as master of ships (and former rebel Isembard Arryn as master of coin by Alyn's recommendation).

Also, even though there is a vague sense that some sort of relationship exists between Houses Velaryon and Manderly, it was maybe not entirely collaborative. Torrhen is specifically said to have been the one to object the the idea of Baela as Aegon III's heir. He was also the one to break the deal with Lys for Viserys's ransom, and had a very resentful relationship with Aegon III from 136 onward. In short, it is hard to pin down where the Manderlys' allegiance stood during the reign of Aegon III.

 

Edited January 21 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

On 1/21/2024 at 6:05 PM, Hippocras said:

In short, it is hard to pin down where the Manderlys' allegiance stood during the reign of Aegon III.

Fishy. But then, House Manderly is the mermaid house, after all.

[Hippocras]

3 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Fishy. But then, House Manderly is the mermaid house, after all.

Yes. And Mermen is a remarkably close word to Myrmen.

[SaffronLady]

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Yes. And Mermen is a remarkably close word to Myrmen.

Now that you mention it, the Starks prob welcomed the Manderlys to employ their merchant marine as the de facto Navy of the North, in which capacity Torrhen Manderly made ties with the Myrish to mess up plans of Lys.

[Hippocras]

Coming back to this topic because I have had some new thoughts.

We already know that the Lannisters and Hightowers were connected at the time of the Dance. Unclear if it was actual relatives, or just as allies. There is no particular reason to believe this alliance ended in the following generation; we have only been assuming that based on Rhaena's marriage and Alyn Velaryon's friendship. And Sam's own personal allegiances and influence may have not extended that far over the Hightower family.

We only know that Lotho founded the Bank of Oldtown, in which the Lannisters may have had a stake.

Meanwhile we have the curious incidents surrounding House Rogare, whose downfall came during Aegon's regency and long before Larra's husband and then son claimed the Throne. However Viserys did have influence even then. So even though House Rogare lost a great deal in Lys, they may still have had allies beyond Sam in Westeros.

An alternate version of Sam's network then involves the Bank of Oldtown, House Lannister, possibly House Manderly, possibly Isembard Arryn.

Tracing first names has led to suspected ties between Westerlands Houses and free cities ones. The appearance of the name "Shiera" in the Westerlands as well as multiple "ei" suffix names raises suspicions. I am beginning to suspect a few things.

1. Larra Rogare and her siblings may have descended from Saera Targaryen via their mother.

2. Jon Hightower was likely the son of Lyonel and Sam, and possibly married to a Rogare. These families ran the Bank of Oldtown. Lotho Rogare may be an ancestor by some path of several characters in the Westerlands.

3. One of Larra's older siblings (Moredo?) was the parent of Serenei of Lys. Jon Hightower brought her over for Aegon IV.

4. A Rogare descendant, brother or sister, niece or nephew of Larra ended up in the North, and Lysara Karstark was their daughter or granddaughter. This connection may have resulted from the activities of Westerosi sellsword companies in Essos founded after the Dance, who were likely embroiled in the conflicts between Lys, Myr and Tyrosh during that time. This would have put Northerners in contact with Moredo Rogare who fought to reclaim his home.

Edited April 3 by Hippocras