Should Daenerys have assisted Cleon?

[Alester Florent]

There are two elements to this question: the moral/ethical dimension, and the practical/strategic one. Morally speaking, was Daenerys duty-bound to defend or assist free Astapor against the slaver coalition? Cleon, of course, is not a particularly attractive individual, and that may influence our reasoning (it almost certainly did hers). But in any such siege or attack, it's the common people who will suffer, and in particular the free slaves. After dramatically freeing the slaves, was Daenerys right to leave them to their fate when the slavers come looking for revenge?

I am perhaps more interested in the practical side of things. On the face of it, Cleon made a foolish decision to confront Yunkai, Daenerys couldn't risk leaving Meereen, and therefore her hands were tied. But I wonder if that is too pat an approach. Yunkai clearly has no intention of honouring the implied terms of the peace with Daenerys, and is looking to reinstate slavery as quickly and comprehensively as possible. Unlike at Astapor and even Meereen, there has been no purge or collective cowing of the Masters at Yunkai, with the traditional social structures very much remaining in place. When Cleon first suggests an alliance, it's clear that Yunkai is rearming and re-slaving. At that point it may not be clear what their first target will be, but given that Daenerys is the major power in the region it seems likely they would strike at Astapor first. By rejecting an alliance with Astapor, Dany is effectively inviting Yunkai to attack, whereas a publicly-declared alliance might have given Yunkai pause: if they march on Astapor, Dany will march on Yunkai.

The threat of Dany's involvement might in some ways be more potent than the reality: her army is largely untested in battle under her command, with only Yunkai putting up a proper fight and their army disintegrating on contact. But she has the Unsullied, who command a fearsome reputation, and the threat of 10,000 of them would surely give any opponent pause. There is also the factor that Yunkai's army is once again made up of slave levies which are inherently unreliable: mere confirmation that Mhysa is coming might result in mass mutiny or an uprising within the city.

Not marching to the aid of Astapor doesn't seem to be driven, in a practical sense, by any concerns about the ability of Dany's army to defeat the slaver's coalition, but rather concern about what will happen in Meereen in her troops' absence. But perhaps there is some middle ground where Dany can retain functional troops in Meereen while dispatching an expeditionary force to assist Astapor. It would of course help if she had accelerated the development of a native Meereenese military or paramilitary force loyal to her (i.e. the Brazen Beasts) rather than relying on her Unsullied. And there is also a question-mark over the size of the New Ghis legions, which if they're several thousand strong could present a challenge to anything less than Dany's full Unsullied contingent. But, again, the mere fact of the alliance might be enough to change the slavers' calculation, or at least buy Cleon (and indeed Dany) time to rearm.

There is a psychological aspect to it too. Astapor was where Dany's vision of a free Ghis began. It's therefore a symbol of her campaign and by brutalising it, the slavers are demonstrating that her dream can be killed. This will embolden other vacillating members of the putative slavers' coalition to join with Yunkai and New Ghis. If however their punitive attack on Astapor can be defeated, New Ghis might abandon the endeavour, or at least retreat to lick its wounds, and Yunkai can be neutralised completely and turned into another productive member of what would now be a tripartite alliance. Instead, within a short time a much larger slaver coalition, headed by Yunkai, is at Dany's gates.

What do we reckon? Was it a mistake? Or just something that was beyond Dany's reasonable control?

[Aebram]

It does seem likely that the mere declaration of an alliance would have made the other slaver cities think twice about attacking. The size of their armies might not matter because, let's remember, Daenerys took Astapor by using one of her dragons as a weapon. It was the first time anyone in the Known World had done that in a century or more. And she has three of them.

But as Daenerys often tells us, she is only a young girl, and knows little of such things.  And to be fair, from what we know of Cleon, he was not the most meritorious of leaders. 

[SeanF]

Sometimes you face only bad options.

Cleon is a shit, but the Yunkish masters are worse.

She ought to have allied with him.  In fact, she ought to have attacked Yunkai, the moment it was clear they were breaking the treaty.

Marching to Astapor would have been logistically difficult, but ravaging the Yunkish hinterland would be entirely possible.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

10 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

There are two elements to this question: the moral/ethical dimension, and the practical/strategic one. Morally speaking, was Daenerys duty-bound to defend or assist free Astapor against the slaver coalition? Cleon, of course, is not a particularly attractive individual, and that may influence our reasoning (it almost certainly did hers). But in any such siege or attack, it's the common people who will suffer, and in particular the free slaves. After dramatically freeing the slaves, was Daenerys right to leave them to their fate when the slavers come looking for revenge?

I am perhaps more interested in the practical side of things. On the face of it, Cleon made a foolish decision to confront Yunkai, Daenerys couldn't risk leaving Meereen, and therefore her hands were tied. But I wonder if that is too pat an approach. Yunkai clearly has no intention of honouring the implied terms of the peace with Daenerys, and is looking to reinstate slavery as quickly and comprehensively as possible. Unlike at Astapor and even Meereen, there has been no purge or collective cowing of the Masters at Yunkai, with the traditional social structures very much remaining in place. When Cleon first suggests an alliance, it's clear that Yunkai is rearming and re-slaving. At that point it may not be clear what their first target will be, but given that Daenerys is the major power in the region it seems likely they would strike at Astapor first. By rejecting an alliance with Astapor, Dany is effectively inviting Yunkai to attack, whereas a publicly-declared alliance might have given Yunkai pause: if they march on Astapor, Dany will march on Yunkai.

The threat of Dany's involvement might in some ways be more potent than the reality: her army is largely untested in battle under her command, with only Yunkai putting up a proper fight and their army disintegrating on contact. But she has the Unsullied, who command a fearsome reputation, and the threat of 10,000 of them would surely give any opponent pause. There is also the factor that Yunkai's army is once again made up of slave levies which are inherently unreliable: mere confirmation that Mhysa is coming might result in mass mutiny or an uprising within the city.

Not marching to the aid of Astapor doesn't seem to be driven, in a practical sense, by any concerns about the ability of Dany's army to defeat the slaver's coalition, but rather concern about what will happen in Meereen in her troops' absence. But perhaps there is some middle ground where Dany can retain functional troops in Meereen while dispatching an expeditionary force to assist Astapor. It would of course help if she had accelerated the development of a native Meereenese military or paramilitary force loyal to her (i.e. the Brazen Beasts) rather than relying on her Unsullied. And there is also a question-mark over the size of the New Ghis legions, which if they're several thousand strong could present a challenge to anything less than Dany's full Unsullied contingent. But, again, the mere fact of the alliance might be enough to change the slavers' calculation, or at least buy Cleon (and indeed Dany) time to rearm.

There is a psychological aspect to it too. Astapor was where Dany's vision of a free Ghis began. It's therefore a symbol of her campaign and by brutalising it, the slavers are demonstrating that her dream can be killed. This will embolden other vacillating members of the putative slavers' coalition to join with Yunkai and New Ghis. If however their punitive attack on Astapor can be defeated, New Ghis might abandon the endeavour, or at least retreat to lick its wounds, and Yunkai can be neutralised completely and turned into another productive member of what would now be a tripartite alliance. Instead, within a short time a much larger slaver coalition, headed by Yunkai, is at Dany's gates.

What do we reckon? Was it a mistake? Or just something that was beyond Dany's reasonable control?

I think she should have gone to Astapor and left several Freedmen companies as well as the Brazen Beats to hold down the fort in Meereen. Although I can understand her fear, I also think the Meereenese are fearful, too. Daenerys is likely to win the battle I think, and if she leaves the Shavepate in charge, he’ll start executing hostages left and right if the Sons of the Harpy do anything lol. Okay I shouldn’t laugh at that, but…I think the Green Grace knows that it will be easier to work with Daenerys then Skahaz. 

I always thiught abandoning Astapor was a mistake if she truly planned to rule in Meereen. Having an ally in the region was a must. 

 

[sifth]

For sure, Astapor was destroyed ten time over. She need not even go herself. Just send Ser Barristan with some of her forces; the guy is a legendary commander. Though I honestly think Dany went too easy on the slavers of Meereen as well. Allowing them to keep their wealth and pyramids was a mistake.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 11/20/2023 at 8:05 PM, sifth said:

Allowing them to keep their wealth and pyramids was a mistake.

I think we've agreed on this elsewhere, but...just agreeing again, lol. It honestly makes no sense. She should have been handing out pyramids to her supporters and removing the Great Masters, in particular the ones she doesn't trust/were involved the most in slaving. Obviously the Shavepates (I don't know..what percent of the former Great Masters are Shavepates?) could keep their pyramids. 

[Northern Sword]

To send any troops to Astapor would be a tactical mistake at this point, as her hold on Meereen is not consolidated. It could leave her weakened in the field, with the potential of losing her base of power in Meereen. Unless she splits her forces, which has its own dangers. I guess a token force with a dragon could keep Yunkai in line, but that would be a huge gamble, with little payoff. If the dragon was full grown that would be a different story.

He biggest mistake imo was in not sacking Yunkai and installing a friendly regime before she went north to Meereen. This would have provided wealth and food for her army.

Strategically speaking, her fight is in Westeros not Slavers Bay. Wasting her power in the east to help Cleon is going backwards.

[Alester Florent]

On 11/21/2023 at 4:48 PM, Northern Sword said:

To send any troops to Astapor would be a tactical mistake at this point, as her hold on Meereen is not consolidated. It could leave her weakened in the field, with the potential of losing her base of power in Meereen. Unless she splits her forces, which has its own dangers. I guess a token force with a dragon could keep Yunkai in line, but that would be a huge gamble, with little payoff. If the dragon was full grown that would be a different story.

I wonder to what extent she would actually have endangered her powerbase in Meereen, though. I do think she could have made more of an effort to cultivate loyalist armed support in Meereen earlier (the Unsullied are never going to be an optimal police force: she should have established the Brazen Beasts immediately). Leaving a holding force in Meereen and smashing the nascent slaver coalition in the field might be a better option for long-term control of Meereen than holing up in the city and letting the slavers have the run of the rest of the Bay.

Quote

 

Strategically speaking, her fight is in Westeros not Slavers Bay. Wasting her power in the east to help Cleon is going backwards.

 

I wonder though whether Dany's story is a "bird in the hand" parable. What is actually for her in Westeros? She's never set foot there. She doesn't know the people. She's spent her whole life in Essos. She cares a whole lot more about Essosi slavery than she does anything in Westeros. But rather than sticking around to accomplish the worthwhile goal of a free Ghis properly, she's half-assing it and racing to get out of there to head to Westeros, because it's her birthright or something?

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

6 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I wonder though whether Dany's story is a "bird in the hand" parable. What is actually for her in Westeros? She's never set foot there. She doesn't know the people. She's spent her whole life in Essos. She cares a whole lot more about Essosi slavery than she does anything in Westeros. But rather than sticking around to accomplish the worthwhile goal of a free Ghis properly, she's half-assing it and racing to get out of there to head to Westeros, because it's her birthright or something?

I’ve thought this for awhile and been too afraid to say it due to lack of popularity. You’ve given me bravery @Alester Florent : Dany should stay in Meereen. I’ve said it. She should make a home there, and she shouldn’t go to a continent that holds nothing for her.

Many seem to hold a concept that Daenerys is essentially Westerosi…but is she? Although she was born in Westeros, she spent all of…what a month there? She lived her entire life in Essos, she I would regard her cultural background as basically Free Cities-an, ahe grew up with the Dothraki, and she has now kind of created a giant family with the Freedmen (who are mostly of mixed Essosi background, I guess some are mixed with Westerosi as well).

I know this isn’t how Daenerys’s story will play out, but I honestly think it could be a happier ending for her. If she could see the Freedmen as a valid people, she could begin training, educational programs, various guilds, etc to start creating a new multicultural culture in Meereen. Plant her olive trees (and other trees aside, and build a fleet of trade vessels). Create a system of irrigation and start planting more. Also, go smash Yunkai and install a regime friendly t you, but this time with a backbone. For example, choose educated Freedmen and leave a Freedmen company with them to hold power. Be selective and careful in your choice. 

I know this will be unpopular, but what I want for Daenerys is to find her red door, and I don’t think it is in Westeros. It’s in finding herself, and the best version of herself, and I think best version of Daenerys is the one who wants to protect her “children” (is the Freedmen). And to abandon her Westerosi identity instead for a mixed Essosi one (which is honestly more accurate to her upbringing). It will not be easy. Instilling a post-slavery government never would be. However, I think it is the road that leads to the red door. 

Unpopular take finished. I know she won’t stay in Meereen. Anyways, I said it, it’s over. 

[Northern Sword]

17 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I wonder to what extent she would actually have endangered her powerbase in Meereen, though. I do think she could have made more of an effort to cultivate loyalist armed support in Meereen earlier (the Unsullied are never going to be an optimal police force: she should have established the Brazen Beasts immediately). Leaving a holding force in Meereen and smashing the nascent slaver coalition in the field might be a better option for long-term control of Meereen than holing up in the city and letting the slavers have the run of the rest of the Bay.

I wonder though whether Dany's story is a "bird in the hand" parable. What is actually for her in Westeros? She's never set foot there. She doesn't know the people. She's spent her whole life in Essos. She cares a whole lot more about Essosi slavery than she does anything in Westeros. But rather than sticking around to accomplish the worthwhile goal of a free Ghis properly, she's half-assing it and racing to get out of there to head to Westeros, because it's her birthright or something?

The problem in Meereen is still the Harpy. Skahaz was probably the person she should have listened to right off the bat and cut the head off the Harpy immediately. I just think everything would have been easier going forward if she started with that. She started it by nailing them to crosses, but it was a half measure. Now they are gaining strength again. One issue is how strong is the Harpy at this point? does she even know ? With an enemy inside her city(of unknown strength), if a large number of troops leave to deal with an external threat, the threat in the city grows even more dangerous.  If she loses her base of power she is finished. The time to smash Yunkai easily is gone. Now the slaver coalition is much stronger then it otherwise have been. If she divides her forces now, will it even be enough to deal with the external threat ?

A loyalist home guard sort of thing is a given, that's what the brazen beast are supposed to be. Will they be enough is the question .

She does seem torn. Barristan was saying, lets go. I think she knows she should go, but she decided not to, out of guilt more than anything else I think(trying to not be a dragon). Yet, her future isn't really in doubt, we know she will go west at some point. What is in Westeros ? other than her family legacy, the Iron Throne and the Battle for the Dawn ? lol.

No matter what she does, a lot of people will die. The question I have is how does she extract herself and her troops with the least amount of cost. 

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Northern Sword said:

The problem in Meereen is still the Harpy. Skahaz was probably the person she should have listened to right off the bat and cut the head off the Harpy immediately. I just think everything would have been easier going forward if she started with that. She started it by nailing them to crosses, but it was a half measure. Now they are gaining strength again. One issue is how strong is the Harpy at this point? does she even know ? With an enemy inside her city(of unknown strength), if a large number of troops leave to deal with an external threat, the threat in the city grows even more dangerous.  If she loses her base of power she is finished. The time to smash Yunkai easily is gone. Now the slaver coalition is much stronger then it otherwise have been. If she divides her forces now, will it even be enough to deal with the external threat ?

A loyalist home guard sort of thing is a given, that's what the brazen beast are supposed to be. Will they be enough is the question .

She does seem torn. Barristan was saying, lets go. I think she knows she should go, but she decided not to, out of guilt more than anything else I think(trying to not be a dragon). Yet, her future isn't really in doubt, we know she will go west at some point. What is in Westeros ? other than her family legacy, the Iron Throne and the Battle for the Dawn ? lol.

No matter what she does, a lot of people will die. The question I have is how does she extract herself and her troops with the least amount of cost. 

80% or so of her people are freedmen.  She should arm them, and turn them loose on the Masters, and their followers.

Assuming the slaver coalition is defeated, and the Volantenes rebel, there won’t be much left to threaten a free Meereen, which has both a standing army, and a gendarmerie.

After that, it’s up to the Meereenese to govern themselves.

The route West goes through Volantis, I think.

[Northern Sword]

31 minutes ago, SeanF said:

80% or so of her people are freedmen.  She should arm them, and turn them loose on the Masters, and their followers.

Assuming the slaver coalition is defeated, and the Volantenes rebel, there won’t be much left to threaten a free Meereen, which has both a standing army, and a gendarmerie.

After that, it’s up to the Meereenese to govern themselves.

The route West goes through Volantis, I think.

That would be the simplest answer.

Yet Dany is resisting those Fire and Blood genes. So, wholesale slaughter is probably off the table for the moment.  Once she is on the way west, it wont matter anyway. But, if Yunkai is still intact, and the Harpy is still around, slavery will make a comeback quick. Unless while Dany is gone and Sir Barristan leads the army out of town to defeat the slavers,  Skahaz mo Kandaq and his Brazen Beasts take it on themselves to purge the city. 

Agreed on the Volantis route. That slave to slave owner ratio will make things interesting. Once she gets there, I cant see that city surviving her.

[SeanF]

7 minutes ago, Northern Sword said:

That would be the simplest answer.

Yet Dany is resisting those Fire and Blood genes. So, wholesale slaughter is probably off the table for the moment.  Once she is on the way west, it wont matter anyway. But, if Yunkai is still intact, and the Harpy is still around, slavery will make a comeback quick. Unless while Dany is gone and Sir Barristan leads the army out of town to defeat the slavers,  Skahaz mo Kandaq and his Brazen Beasts take it on themselves to purge the city. 

Agreed on the Volantis route. That slave to slave owner ratio will make things interesting. Once she gets there, I cant see that city surviving her.

The safest course to protect Meereen is to massacre the surviving Yunkish masters.  They were offered a generous peace, and they proved incorrigible.

[Darzin]

On 11/22/2023 at 12:48 AM, Northern Sword said:

To send any troops to Astapor would be a tactical mistake at this point, as her hold on Meereen is not consolidated. It could leave her weakened in the field, with the potential of losing her base of power in Meereen. Unless she splits her forces, which has its own dangers. I guess a token force with a dragon could keep Yunkai in line, but that would be a huge gamble, with little payoff. If the dragon was full grown that would be a different story.

 

I agree with this but Yunkai is in-between Astapor and Mereen. So if she allies with Cleon, she can move on Yunkai if they send their army towards him. I agree she can't send her army to Astapor, but sending half her Unullied + some Freedmen under Barristan shoud be enough to seriously hurt Yunkai's war effort. Before the other slavers arrive Yunkai are not that strong and they likely can't fight both Dany and Astapor.  

[Northern Sword]

3 hours ago, Darzin said:

I agree with this but Yunkai is in-between Astapor and Mereen. So if she allies with Cleon, she can move on Yunkai if they send their army towards him. I agree she can't send her army to Astapor, but sending half her Unullied + some Freedmen under Barristan shoud be enough to seriously hurt Yunkai's war effort. Before the other slavers arrive Yunkai are not that strong and they likely can't fight both Dany and Astapor.  

The big question in this scenario is, what would Cleon bring to the table as an ally against Yunkai ?

Astapor is a ruin, its soldiers or slaves have already been routed once(correct me if I am wrong) and the city is starving, burning and there is plague. Who ever Cleon scrapes together to help Dany, probably wont be too reliable imo. So how much help would Cleon be against Yunkai ? I think at best, he would be a distraction from Dany's Forces. 

Hurting Yunkai is not enough, it would need to be taken out entirely. Can that even happen before all those other armies show up. 

Either way, big gamble ahead. 

Alea iacta est.

 

[Darzin]

12 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

The big question in this scenario is, what would Cleon bring to the table as an ally against Yunkai ?

Astapor is a ruin, its soldiers or slaves have already been routed once(correct me if I am wrong) and the city is starving, burning and there is plague. Who ever Cleon scrapes together to help Dany, probably wont be too reliable imo. So how much help would Cleon be against Yunkai ? I think at best, he would be a distraction from Dany's Forces. 

Hurting Yunkai is not enough, it would need to be taken out entirely. Can that even happen before all those other armies show up. 

Either way, big gamble ahead. 

Alea iacta est.

 

When he first offers an alliance things are not quite so bad. I don't think Cleon would be  much of a help offensively but rather a force in being. Yunkai still had to send a significant force to take the city and with Dany on the other side. If they moved on Astapor. Daenerys may well have been able to take Yunkai. As this was before the other members of the slaver coalition had arrived. 

[astarkchoice]

Seems too little too late

 

1) she should have been sending threats the 2nd her council were in any sort of danger, to say  that if they were betraying the people to slavers shed kill them slow and likewise to anyone trying to overhthrow them. She should have left a firm promise of blood and  fire for vs sort of uprising that brings back slavery! 

 

2) she never should have left astopor without a fixed society but also one that could properly defend itself. She should have let the unsullied and freed slaves fix astopors crumbling walls maybe even build some moats,trenches etc. Had the freedmen armed(produces unsullied so should have blacksmiths ) and begun a regular training regime ....turned the entire freedmen population into a part time milita , one that would defend their own city and freedoms!.

 

3)if she cant topple yunkais masters impose on them harsher terms. Send half the freedmen who leave yunkai back to astopor but all armed and given enough money to buy food to feed the extra mouths for a few months + enough roughly to  say hire  4 sellsword companies  if they choose to boost their milita!

 

4) new ghis is the real muscle in slaver bay she should have not only rooted out the harpies but been prepping a counter force to the slavers full might! If the clanker lords had been remotely competent or not cocky due to  an upcomming  seeming easy victory  then shed have been in deep dee p doo doo ! She should have been  building an army...the extra manpower onnthe streets and cost (from the wise masters pockets) probably would have weakened the harpies reistance too!