The Logic Chain of Theories

[Hippocras]

This topic could easily be retitled "the reasons fans have heated debates".

It has to do with the fact that no theory about these books can exist in a vacuum, and each depends on a chain of other theories that each reader holds to be true. It can be an interesting exercise to map out your own chains. What do you believe to be true even though it is not yet confirmed? Which other ideas do you therefore tend to rule out because of this belief?

For me, some of my basic assumptions are as follows:

1. I believe that blood magic is tied to bloodlines, and so who is related to who and to what matters. I do NOT however believe that bloodlines and family names are the same thing.
      - Because of this, I do not believe that just anyone can ride or control dragons, though the Targaryen name is not the part that matters.
      - Because of this, I suspect that blood ties to Valyrian steel exist and that ownership of VS is not simply a matter of buying or finding it.
      - Because of this, I believe strongly in the importance of the female line. We need to know who the mothers are and where the daughters and sisters  and bastards went.
      - Because of this, I think it doesn't matter if Young Griff is really Aegon or if he is a Blackfyre. He is, by some route, a "dragon".

2. Jon is the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar.
     - Jon is therefore, IMO, NOT the son of Brandon and Ashara, or Wylla and Ned, etc.
     - Jon is therefore neutral in the great contrast of Ice and Fire. He fights the extremes, not one side or the other.

3. Ashara is, herself, important. She is not just a side story to mislead us about who Jon's mother was. I think she, and her generation of Daynes, descended from a Targaryen.
      - Because of the belief she is important, I consider it possible that Ashara and/or her child may still be alive.
      - Because of this belief, I remain intrigued by a series of other theories regarding baby swaps etc. though some are better than others.
      - Because of this belief, I consider Darkstar to be dangerous in part because he has a claim to the throne, though distant. 
      - Because of this belief, I I think that Aerys felt threatened by the Daynes, though not only the Daynes.

4. I believe that Littlefinger is a sociopath and love has never been his main motivation.
      - Because of this, I believe it is Catelyn Tully's (and so Sansa's) ancestry that excites him really, not love. Love is a cover story to conceal what he is really doing.
      - Because of this, I believe that Catelyn's and Sansa's association with stories about Duncan the Small and Jenny are meant as some sort of clue.
      - Because of this, I believe that all of the Stark children in fact have a distant claim to the Iron Throne.

5. I believe that the Lightbringer myth is not the distant past but rather a hint of something that will be part of the current story. Furthermore, I believe that Lightbringer is GRRM's version of Anduril from LOTR, and so it is actually a sword.
       - Because of this, I do NOT believe that Lightbringer is Dany, or dragons, or Jon etc. Azor Ahai was the Hero. Lightbringer was his sword. There is no point swapping the two.
       - Because of this, I believe that an undercurrent of the story that needs to be considered is how and why this magical flaming sword will re-occur; not just who might wield it.

 

 

What is your chain of assumptions?

[SaffronLady]

35 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Azor Ahai was the Hero.

Small thing. I follow LML in believing Azor Ahai was no hero.

[Hippocras]

43 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Small thing. I follow LML in believing Azor Ahai was no hero.

Fair enough. My point has more to do with him being the human, or SUBJECT of the story and lightbringer being the thing, or OBJECT of the story than any actual heroism. 

[Aebram]

Yes, separating assumptions from facts is important for clear thinking and effective debate.  Thanks for pointing this out.

That being said, I will respectfully disagree with you on one point:

Quote

I believe that Littlefinger is a sociopath and love has never been his main motivation. Because of this, I believe it is Catelyn Tully's (and so Sansa's) ancestry that excites him really, not love. Love is a cover story to conceal what he is really doing.

We know that Littlefinger's interest in Catelyn started in his early teens.  He was, what, 15 years old? -- when he challenged the bigger, older Brandon Stark to a duel for her hand.  That seems more like love than some sort of political ambition. But you've studied this more than I.  Can you fill in some details? What do you think he was "really doing?"

 

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, Aebram said:

Yes, separating assumptions from facts is important for clear thinking and effective debate.  Thanks for pointing this out.

That being said, I will respectfully disagree with you on one point:

We know that Littlefinger's interest in Catelyn started in his early teens.  He was, what, 15 years old? -- when he challenged the bigger, older Brandon Stark to a duel for her hand.  That seems more like love than some sort of political ambition. But you've studied this more than I.  Can you fill in some details? What do you think he was "really doing?"

 

That is fine. It is one of my underlying beliefs but does not need to be yours.

 

I think a 15 year old who is clever can still study books and family trees and formulate a plan. I don't think his desire for climbing via chaos was somehow not present in his teenaged self. He would have been, mentally a bit like Theon. Part of the family but also not and often being put in his place. I think he did not just have a crush, but also had resentments.

The duel put his own person in danger in a way he never would now. But it served his purpose of challenging the supreme rights of great families, and he thinks he got Catelyn's virginity from it. He is trying to bring the Tullys down by telling of it.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

16 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I believe it is Catelyn Tully's (and so Sansa's) ancestry that excites him really, not love.

Why ancestry specifically though? Both Cat and Sansa are members of Lord P Houses. Would that not be enough for LF to climb?

Braavos doesn't seem a very ancestry-heavy place of origin, unlike say Volantis, either.

The possible Lothston-Whent-Tully-Stark maternal line of descent may prove interesting, it's just LF never seemed like the sort to care.

[Hippocras]

27 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Why ancestry specifically though? Both Cat and Sansa are members of Lord P Houses. Would that not be enough for LF to climb?

Braavos doesn't seem a very ancestry-heavy place of origin, unlike say Volantis, either.

The possible Lothston-Whent-Tully-Stark maternal line of descent may prove interesting, it's just LF never seemed like the sort to care.

It is frustrating because we don't have trees for Houses Tully or Whent.

We do have a Targaryen betrothal for Celia Tully that was broken. This suggests Celia may have been some degree of cousin, whose side branch of the royal lineage required containment.

We also have the prominent place of house Whent during Aerys II's reign. Prior to Aerys there are several branches of the Targ family, mostly daughters, that are not yet accounted for, though some possibilities are the Whents descended from Mya or Gwenys Rivers, or Jeyne Longwaters, or even Duncan and Jenny if they had any children who did not die at Summerhall.

 

LF wants to climb all the way. I am sure he accepts it may not happen, but he is still aiming for the very top. His own ancestry is likely nothing. The Tully's may have royal links but they are far enough back that his interest did not raise suspicions as they would have if he had actually aimed for a princess or direct royal cousin.

From there his MO has always been to find ways for those in front of him (or rather his wife) in line to die.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

57 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

We do have a Targaryen betrothal for Celia Tully that was broken. This suggests Celia may have been some degree of cousin, whose side branch of the royal lineage required containment.

With the context of the Eggian Reforms, Celia Tully's betrothal was probably a convenient ally-making move on part of the royals. The chances that Houses Tully, Baratheon, Tyrell and Redwyne were all royal cousins on top of the Penroses and Velaryons just as there was a major reform going on ... exists. Just unlikely.

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

We also have the prominent place of house Whent during Aerys II's reign. Prior to Aerys there are several branches of the Targ family, mostly daughters

I get what you're trying to say, but the annoying thing about Harrenhal is the castle is important enough that keeping it in check already warrants great honor ... as the Whents did when they ended the Mad Lothston. Royal blood could increase the standing of the family, but it isn't necessary.

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

LF wants to climb all the way.

There are many ways to do that - a coup d'etat, for instance. Just because LF aims for the top doesn't mean he hunts Targ blood. It's not like there was such a thing as the cheat option called dragons back in his youth...

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

The chances that Houses Tully, Baratheon, Tyrell and Redwyne were all royal cousins on top of the Penroses and Velaryons just as there was a major reform going on ... exists. Just unlikely.

I don't think it is all that unlikely. Rhaena Hightower had 6 daughters who had to go somewhere. Baela had at least 2 children and probably more, Elaena had several children also unaccounted for, and Egg had 2 sisters we know had children we just don't know who with. Daenora Targaryen may have remarried after Aerion died, etc. etc. So there are definitely some offshoots that remain to be clarified, and Blackfyres etc. were still causing problems in those times, meaning that a sprawling family tree was a problem.

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Royal blood could increase the standing of the family, but it isn't necessary.

No it is not, I agree. House Whent is just one possibility. But in the absence of a complete accounting for where all these loose end Targaryens ended up, the next best clue we have is details such as who was suddenly given a prominent castle, or a betrothal, and who had positions of importance that contained any threat of conflicting claims to the throne. We know House Whent was given Harrenhal because of their role in bringing down the Lothstons, but that does not mean they did not also have a degree of royal family connections by blood. It would not have been the first time a slightly problematic royal relative was given Harrenhal. 

I think King Aerys's Kingsguard was made up almost entirely of loose end Targaryen ancestry males, in very large part because of his paranoia. We know that he used Jaimie's appointment to contain a rival so it is not past him to have done the same to other Houses.

Arthur Dayne was probably one, Darry was probably another, Gerold Hightower even more likely because we have a sense of what route he came by it, and we of course have full confirmation that Llewyn Martell was of royal descent. Whent also fits this list, and even, given the geographic proximity, the Whent connection to House Targaryen may have stemmed from the same source as the Darry connection.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

20 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Small thing. I follow LML in believing Azor Ahai was no hero.

Gotta side with SaffronLady on this one.

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Fair enough. My point has more to do with him being the human, or SUBJECT of the story and lightbringer being the thing, or OBJECT of the story than any actual heroism. 

The OBJECT of the story is Nissa Nissa, and by extension, Shireen, Edric Storm, Hazzea, and god-knows who else.  The object is murder.  Lightbringer is merely a false promise from a demon god.  A devil's trick to get humans to murder each other.

[SaffronLady]

27 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Rhaena Hightower had 6 daughters who had to go somewhere.

Well what do you know, maybe the motherhouses and Silent Sisters received them with open arms...

[Hippocras]

32 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Well what do you know, maybe the motherhouses and Silent Sisters received them with open arms...

Possibly one or even two went that direction but not all. Especially not in a time when the peace was tenuous and heirs were scarce, as was true in the early part of Aegon III's reign. The queen was still a child, Viserys's wife was not trusted and Rhaena and Baela were needed to produce heirs and grandchildren.

[SaffronLady]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Possibly one or even two went that direction but not all. Especially not in a time when the peace was tenuous and heirs were scarce, as was true in the early part of Aegon III's reign. The queen was still a child, Viserys's wife was not trusted and Rhaena and Baela were needed to produce heirs and grandchildren.

I understand why you think the way you do, BUT we have no idea if GRRM thinks the necessity of spawning overrides that of pruning branches.

[Hippocras]

26 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

I understand why you think the way you do, BUT we have no idea if GRRM thinks the necessity of spawning overrides that of pruning branches.

I guess I think it would explain everything. It would explain, most of all, why Aerys felt threatened and paranoid, and why the rebellion happened.

[SaffronLady]

5 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I guess I think it would explain everything. It would explain, most of all, why Aerys felt threatened and paranoid, and why the rebellion happened.

Aerys is clinically insane. By giving him reasons, you're destroying his character.

On 12/18/2023 at 10:03 PM, Hippocras said:

I believe that blood magic is tied to bloodlines, and so who is related to who and to what matters.

I believe GRRM wants us to think all magic is tied to bloodlines. First Men in general have the potential to produce greenseers ... which has interesting implications for a certain river called the Greenblood. Why is it in Dorne of all places?

On 12/18/2023 at 10:03 PM, Hippocras said:

- Because of this, I think it doesn't matter if Young Griff is really Aegon or if he is a Blackfyre. He is, by some route, a "dragon".

I think this would matter, following your previous chain, only when YG claims a VS sword or a dragon.

On 12/18/2023 at 10:03 PM, Hippocras said:

I believe that the Lightbringer myth is not the distant past but rather a hint of something that will be part of the current story.

Given how an aspect of the truth of the Azor Ahai myth is already part of the story (Renly's death at the command of "Azor Ahai"), I agree - at the most, I disagree to the extent that it already is part of the current story.

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, SaffronLady said:

Aerys is clinically insane. By giving him reasons, you're destroying his character.

I believe GRRM wants us to think all magic is tied to bloodlines. First Men in general have the potential to produce greenseers ... which has interesting implications for a certain river called the Greenblood. Why is it in Dorne of all places?

I think this would matter, following your previous chain, only when YG claims a VS sword or a dragon.

Given how an aspect of the truth of the Azor Ahai myth is already part of the story (Renly's death at the command of "Azor Ahai"), I agree - at the most, I disagree to the extent that it already is part of the current story.

This is all a discussion of underlying assumptions, so it is fine that my perspective differs. Really I just think that people should map out their own assumptions to figure out where their key points of disagreement are and why. This, I guess you could say, is mine.

Aerys BECAME insane from paranoia well into his reign. It was a slide that was in large part provoked by the deaths of multiple heirs, and then a rebellion at Duskendale. So I firmly disagree that his insanity was independent of his fears for the security of his reign and his line. The two things were in fact intimately connected. So it bears some investigation to consider where he felt threats might be coming from and why.

As for Azor Ahai, fragments of the story are already there I agree, but they are more hints and feints than the real thing. Stannis was not actually Azor Ahai, no matter what Mel believes, and Beric Dondarrion could light swords on fire with his blood but he died his final death. It hints that his blood matters to the outcome and the flaming sword, but not himself as a person. He can't be all that central because he is gone. So there will be a real flaming sword, and there will be a real Azor Ahai reborn, but that person is neither Stannis, nor Beric.

[SaffronLady]

56 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

provoked by the deaths of multiple heirs

Sons. He had only two heir-designates, at least according to the wiki.

57 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

So I firmly disagree that his insanity was independent of his fears

To clarify my own position, I too agree his insanity is intwined with his fears. It's just that I don't think that means every fear for his reign is caused by some distant cousin arriving within his field of concern.

He is clinically insane - his own imprisonment and son conspiring against him was enough.

59 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

So it bears some investigation to consider where he felt threats might be coming from and why.

Agreed. Now, however, is it coming from the Iron Bank bankrolling people because Aerys threatened them, and/or Varys stoking his madness? Bloodlines don't necessarily mean power, after all.

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Stannis was not actually Azor Ahai

We don't need Stannis to actually be the hero who saves the world. He is what I term a "myth-actor", like the character of Hugor - he is a stand-in for a legend to be refreshed in living history, like the tellings of Hugor as a stand-in for Night's King.

What we could currently work with is Azor Ahai was the one who came to Westeros, killed the 'King of Summer' with a cold shadow, and created an army of cold with his army of summer.

To hazard a risky guess, that means, essentially, the Others are corrupted ("ice-ified", drained) disembodied spirits of greenseers, and Azor Ahai did this to them. Which is why Azor Ahai would be no hero - he could be the Great Other for all we know, and the founder of the entire discipline of 'ice necromancy'.

[Willam Stark]

On 12/18/2023 at 3:03 PM, Hippocras said:

I think she, and her generation of Daynes, descended from a Targaryen.

I think they come from Rhaena's bloodline. As you said, she had 6 daughters and I believe that the eldest one married lord Hightower and became lady Hightower. This lady Hightower married lord Dayne and had at least 2 children: lady Dyanna Dayne who married Prince Maekar and a son who perpetuated the Dayne's line to this day (in the saga).

8 hours ago, Hippocras said:

We do have a Targaryen betrothal for Celia Tully that was broken. This suggests Celia may have been some degree of cousin, whose side branch of the royal lineage required containment.

Not necessarily, House Tully is a lord paramount house thus Celia Tully was a good match for a Targaryen prince simply as a Tully. Besides, Aegon V didn't like the traditions of his family, I don't think he would care whether Celia was a close kin or not, he was building alliances before anything else. This is why I don't believe she had Targaryen ancestry at all, same goes for the modern Tully.

 

[Hippocras]

8 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Not necessarily, House Tully is a lord paramount house thus Celia Tully was a good match for a Targaryen prince simply as a Tully. Besides, Aegon V didn't like the traditions of his family, I don't think he would care whether Celia was a close kin or not, he was building alliances before anything else. This is why I don't believe she had Targaryen ancestry at all, same goes for the modern Tully.

Agreed, not necessarily. But as I said here and elsewhere, these were dangerous times. Aegon V did not like the sibling marriage thing but people take that too far, when in fact cousin marriage was common and indeed often needed to contain or prevent conflicts throughout Westeros. Tywin married his cousin, Starks married cousins, etc.

The entire period from Aegon IV's death when he legitimized his bastards up until the death of Maelys in about 260 AC was an extremely dangerous period for the Targaryen dynasty. At any moment they were dealing with the threat of Blackfyres gaining allies in Westeros via marriage to other Houses with strong claims. So if there were offshoots by the female line, as there almost certainly were, they did absolutely need to be secured to the Iron Throne via marriage alliances. Otherwise the Targaryens risked the loss of the Kingdoms.

[SaffronLady]

28 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

At any moment they were dealing with the threat of Blackfyres gaining allies in Westeros via marriage to other Houses with strong claims.

Wouldn't the Blackfyres want allies with strong power but weak claims, since they have the reverse?