Beyond the vale: Littlefingers next step

[astarkchoice]

Soo we know the vale is littlefingers home ground. He had it set up in such a way that only  his having to kill lysa quickly made the vale lords any kind of threat!

Lets review:

We know he began his career in gulltown and has both minor lords, various tax and tariff collecting officals are all his men and good relations with the merchants there.

His own holdings are meagre , barely around a landed knight(and im sure a reach or westerlands one would be insulted by such a holding). 

We know his time in kingslanding has him a network of brothels and taverns earning him cash and information, has his own right hand merc the highly capable  'appleeater' (whos in love with sansas pal mya stone) and others are gathering.

In his corner  we know the kettlebacks adore him hes pretty much got them paid double  for merc work minus any real fighting and ina place to get  a few sleeping with the queen and ladies at court etc. Now their own issues with the faith my expose him or leave them in his debt further if he can extract them for their elderly father

The corbrays he already had one of the vales.most dangrous swordsmen in lyn in his pocket and has gotten the poor house a huge dowry by using his connections to get the lord a new wife with a rich family!

The lesser royces hes bought with thr gates of the moon, plus myranda seems fond of him althrough she could still be an ally to sansa

House templeton attend corbrays wedding so may or may not be onside for lf

House sunderlands lord has 7 sons so is reportedly hard up for gold..something lf can help with

House redfords lord was against LF and has married his daughter to bronze royce..probably the last powerful lord thatl put honour before money etc and potentialy lfs most dangerouse foe as hes seen sansa and is personaly very capable in combat on top of his houses strength! Note redfords son was linked to mya stone so that may be a line of communication sansa can exploit!!!.

 

House lynderlys lord is apparently peterd old friend

House hunter is mid civil strife with lf somehow aware the late lord hunter died at the youngest sons hand and the heir and eldest isnt long to go vs the 2 younger brotherd either!

 

Lord grafton of gulltown is anothe rof lfs buddies prbably from his days of being in charge of the harbour

House belmore petyr says is corrupt

A few others will attend and be part of sweetrobins knock off kingsguard and we knoe hes possibly familiar with the arryns of gulltown whonare rich but ignored bybthe various other major and  minor noble arryns! 

Finaly lady waynwood is the key , not only a powerful house in her own right but she has harry the heir as her ward  whos not only likely to rule  but could bring the minor hardyn house too. She has 3 unmarried knight sons to secure  herself over the vale  like the queen of thorns has done for the tyrells over the reach. To this end he.has sent sansa to win him over which as someome the lords clearly know is  really a  stark/tully they are happy to have their sons chase!

Now we know lf has been given a short time in charge of the vale, has some sneakly economic dealings eith the crown finances which may tie into his plot to use the vales untouched food produce as winter approaches by waiting to prices skyrocket. Hes also brought rich tapestries to placate nestor and possibly show the valement their bonds to the arryns (or remind them of being a free kingom? Or maybe they show the lannister-baratheon hair thing?)

Finaly hes got a  clear tullylooking sansa in a riverlands thatd abput to explode in carnage thar he has overlordship.of (im titlw if not by actual power) and  the ruinousharrenhall!..all this and for the 1st time in years both cersei and varys are largely out of his way! Hes got a devastating  secret  for the tyrell-lannister alliance should he chose to drop that bombshell too

 

So what will happen next for the little sneak do we think? Hes gotten into an excellent postion...what will go wrong for him?

Edited February 15 by astarkchoice

[Aebram]

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

My personal hunch is that Littlefinger wants Sansa for himself, but he's going to get her in stages. First, he'll arrange her marriage to Harry the Heir. Then he'll arrange Sweetrobin's death (as he already seems to be doing), making Harry the Lord of the Vale, and Sansa the Lady. Then he'll arrange Harry's death, and marry Sansa himself, making himself effectively the new Lord of the Vale. Then he'll announce her true identity, giving them the North as well.

But that all seems too obvious. It may be what Littlefinger wants, but the George will throw a couple of surprises in to interrupt his plan; and I have no idea what those will be.

[astarkchoice]

@Aebram

I think while hes obsessed with sansa and wants to bed  her he wont risk his plan but his lust is gonna end up blindsiding him to sansas eventual moves.

I think he now thinks of himself as a ladys man so might try with the seemingly willing town bike myranda royce too.

Its all comming together for him so in grmm fashion hel slip up at the last min.loyalty and compassion are factors he barely understands so possibly sansas friendship with mya or myranda will help her blindside him!

Bronze royce and the redfords may be the key , or lady waynwood may work out that once she has harry+ sansa together she doesnt really need lf as much anymore!

A wildcard is mychel redfort..one of the vales vest swordsmen and pissed that he has to marry his new royce bride and possibly may be told to let harry win the upcomming melees etc to cover the future vale ruler in glory! Hes connected to sansa by her friend mya

Another wildcard is the appleeater may turn on LF  for mya  

Or even more out there the hilltribes may return if i recall some of them where used to keep sansa safe by tyrion (her husband legaly) so she may exploit that!!

Finaly theres just the chance that lil sweetrobin who sansa has built an ever closer bond to has heard/seen something or just turns on LF for sansa.

 

Or worse feeling given its grmm all thisnmay happen AFTER sansa has given her virginity to LF/harry out of wedlock and/or she ends up with him and he NEVER gets his commupance! Grmm does say if we think this story has a happy ending you havent been paying attention!  Maybe LF as scummy as he seems and as unhaply irl make us readers will be remembed as a vale version of westerlands  lann the clever!!!

Edited February 16 by astarkchoice

[Loose Bolt]

Sansa has minor claims to North, Riverlands and Westernlands. (After all she is legal wife of Tyrion.) So if all those who have stronger claims to those kingdoms are either MIA or KIA and she somehow gains enough military support to enforce those claims Sansa could take over 3 kingdoms :lol

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Sansa has minor claims to North, Riverlands and Westernlands. (After all she is legal wife of Tyrion.) So if all those who have stronger claims to those kingdoms are either MIA or KIA and she somehow gains enough military support to enforce those claims Sansa could take over 3 kingdoms :lol

It all depends claims  alone are no use without power, its as varys said its all down to interpretation.

Now she has a claim to winterfell and we know there are 2 forces(manderly and stannis) who could put her there for their own ends.

The riverlands are well tied up as frey- lannister BUT if the freys of the twins get.a. red wedding 2.0 and blackfish can sneak a force into riverrun or save edmure then the extra political weight of a tully stark could swing that region...esp if backed by the overlord of the riverlands and lorf of harrenhall AND/OR  backed by the valelords!

The westerlands her claim is so weak as to virtualy not exist ..she is considered complicit in the murder of joff and tywin with tyrion , no f-ing way the lords of westerlands let her ever take casterly rock esp when lannisport is infested with lannisters

[Angel Eyes]

8 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

It all depends claims  alone are no use without power, its as varys said its all down to interpretation.

Now she has a claim to winterfell and we know there are 2 forces(manderly and stannis) who could put her there for their own ends.

The riverlands are well tied up as frey- lannister BUT if the freys of the twins get.a. red wedding 2.0 and blackfish can sneak a force into riverrun or save edmure then the extra political weight of a tully stark could swing that region...esp if backed by the overlord of the riverlands and lorf of harrenhall AND/OR  backed by the valelords!

The westerlands her claim is so weak as to virtualy not exist ..she is considered complicit in the murder of joff and tywin with tyrion , no f-ing way the lords of westerlands let her ever take casterly rock esp when lannisport is infested with lannisters

Would Winterfell want her? Several of the lords know Robb wrote her off.

[astarkchoice]

6 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Would Winterfell want her? Several of the lords know Robb wrote her off.

He wrote her off as females arent anywhere near as valuable as male hostages (esp a jamie lannister). 

But yeah as we see theres some loyalty from the minor vassals  such as the north clansmen willing to die for 'neds little girl' and manderly wanting a stark boy as a rallying cry for his own little revolution so the stark  name  has some pull.

Oaths wore to families , tradition,  bitterness at how the wot5k ended and of course ned being smart enough to build personal relations with his vassals all help to add to it.

[Nevets]

It should be remembered that Littlefinger is not the main character of the Vale story; Sansa is.  The Vale is a good place to hide out, learn a few things, and then make her mark when she's ready.  Littlefinger is there to be her mentor, likely antagonist, and general foil.  I suspect she will figure out his true nature and take him down.

At this point, Baelish appears well situated, but appearances can be deceiving.  He has at least one powerful enemy, Yohn Royce, and many of his allies I suspect are the type to jump ship at the earliest opportunity.  I don't think he's well liked.

I don't think he has any real interest in the Riverlands, especially so long as there is still fighting.  Lord of Harrenhal is a nice title, but I think that is all it is for him.  I don't see Sansa as having any interest there either.  I think her story is a Northern one.

I think Baelish's weakness is Sansa.  He's obsessed with her.  I think his plan is to have her marry Harry and have his child.  Then get rid of Harry, and marry Sansa, and become guardian of her child.  Then get rid of Sweetrobin and rule the Vale through Sansa's child, and possibly advance from there.  This would require Sansa's cooperation, which he probably won't get.

[Castellan]

I think Petyr hides his cards and its hard to know if he even likes Sansa. He might be aiming to ultimately marry her but the Tyrells and Tywin were also keen to capture her as a political tool.

[astarkchoice]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

It should be remembered that Littlefinger is not the main character of the Vale story; Sansa is.  The Vale is a good place to hide out, learn a few things, and then make her mark when she's ready.  Littlefinger is there to be her mentor, likely antagonist, and general foil.  I suspect she will figure out his true nature and take him down.

At this point, Baelish appears well situated, but appearances can be deceiving.  He has at least one powerful enemy, Yohn Royce, and many of his allies I suspect are the type to jump ship at the earliest opportunity.  I don't think he's well liked.

I don't think he has any real interest in the Riverlands, especially so long as there is still fighting.  Lord of Harrenhal is a nice title, but I think that is all it is for him.  I don't see Sansa as having any interest there either.  I think her story is a Northern one.

I think Baelish's weakness is Sansa.  He's obsessed with her.  I think his plan is to have her marry Harry and have his child.  Then get rid of Harry, and marry Sansa, and become guardian of her child.  Then get rid of Sweetrobin and rule the Vale through Sansa's child, and possibly advance from there.  This would require Sansa's cooperation, which he probably won't get.

Yeah it would be like grmm to have us swallow a bitter pill and have LF get away consequence free ..but so far hes played a nearly flawless game so in true grmm fashion hes set to fall!

 

Bronze royce seems like the most dangerous LF opp there. He commands a strong house now tied to the redforts house who have mychel whos description as one of the best swordsmen in the vale cant be there for nothing! Bronze royce himself is a top 10-20 warrior in westeros so if it comes down to a brief scuffle rather than open war  thats 2 elite fighters on the anti littlefinger side! 

Note mychel.is also lyn corbrays squire thus is in a position to essentialy neutralize one if littlefingers most ardent and lethal supporters!!! Hes also mya stones lover thus sansa has another backdoor route of communication to him through a friend!

Add in sansa may win over harry and thus take lady waynwood and her house against littlefinger!

Then there os the true lord of the vale...sweetrobin! Hes cowed by LF at the min but he does adore sansa thus again she has a lot of 'soft power' in the vale already

The my stone connection also has the interesting love triangle where lfs normaly quiet and lethal  right hand lothor brune is smitten with mya.  Hes already intervened to stop sansa being raped and may grow fond of her...its possible she and/or mya may turn or neutralize him at a time lf needs him ina crunch situation....the idea of a sellsword rejecting money and choosing something honourable would be a well written way to wrongfoot a man like littlefinger as he could never  fully understand such motives!

 

Myranda royce of course is another avenue for sansa being close fast friends. Her influence over her father may be key or maybe info she knows seemingly being a gossip hub , plus she has joked in the wowinter  extract about littlefingers 'littlefinger' .....now its unlikely (but who knows she seems a 'friendly lass' )   if she becomes his lover she may gain more info and accidently feed it back to sansa

Then there is the kettlebacks! We know the head of the house is with lf in the vale. Previously happy with serving LF hes managed to get his 3 sons double pay as mercs (from cersei and bronn) and cosy positions at court including bedding various women....but now its all gone wrong and he may lose all 3 sons!!! Oswell kettleback has been in lfs service for some time but may now be desperate enough to jump ship.

Theres the 3 hedge knights who join LFs service BUT the kettleblacks actions in kingslanding  may be foreshadowing their betrayal...if sellswords can take pay from 2 masters and be double agents once   they can do it again !!!  We know theres a bag kf gold on offer for sansa and mad mouse at least has worked out who she actualy is , we know  LF  is a loose end for the queen of thorns over the purple wedding and of course varys may have always had an endgame plan set  in place for his old rival (and vice versa)

 

All in all there multiple possible interweavimg strands for sansa to take down lf   his obsession with her also means hel never see it comming!

[Nevets]

On 2/18/2024 at 12:54 AM, astarkchoice said:

Yeah it would be like grmm to have us swallow a bitter pill and have LF get away consequence free ..but so far hes played a nearly flawless game so in true grmm fashion hes set to fall!

 

Bronze royce seems like the most dangerous LF opp there. He commands a strong house now tied to the redforts house who have mychel whos description as one of the best swordsmen in the vale cant be there for nothing! Bronze royce himself is a top 10-20 warrior in westeros so if it comes down to a brief scuffle rather than open war  thats 2 elite fighters on the anti littlefinger side! 

Note mychel.is also lyn corbrays squire thus is in a position to essentialy neutralize one if littlefingers most ardent and lethal supporters!!! Hes also mya stones lover thus sansa has another backdoor route of communication to him through a friend!

Add in sansa may win over harry and thus take lady waynwood and her house against littlefinger!

Then there os the true lord of the vale...sweetrobin! Hes cowed by LF at the min but he does adore sansa thus again she has a lot of 'soft power' in the vale already

The my stone connection also has the interesting love triangle where lfs normaly quiet and lethal  right hand lothor brune is smitten with mya.  Hes already intervened to stop sansa being raped and may grow fond of her...its possible she and/or mya may turn or neutralize him at a time lf needs him ina crunch situation....the idea of a sellsword rejecting money and choosing something honourable would be a well written way to wrongfoot a man like littlefinger as he could never  fully understand such motives!

 

Myranda royce of course is another avenue for sansa being close fast friends. Her influence over her father may be key or maybe info she knows seemingly being a gossip hub , plus she has joked in the wowinter  extract about littlefingers 'littlefinger' .....now its unlikely (but who knows she seems a 'friendly lass' )   if she becomes his lover she may gain more info and accidently feed it back to sansa

Then there is the kettlebacks! We know the head of the house is with lf in the vale. Previously happy with serving LF hes managed to get his 3 sons double pay as mercs (from cersei and bronn) and cosy positions at court including bedding various women....but now its all gone wrong and he may lose all 3 sons!!! Oswell kettleback has been in lfs service for some time but may now be desperate enough to jump ship.

Theres the 3 hedge knights who join LFs service BUT the kettleblacks actions in kingslanding  may be foreshadowing their betrayal...if sellswords can take pay from 2 masters and be double agents once   they can do it again !!!  We know theres a bag kf gold on offer for sansa and mad mouse at least has worked out who she actualy is , we know  LF  is a loose end for the queen of thorns over the purple wedding and of course varys may have always had an endgame plan set  in place for his old rival (and vice versa)

 

All in all there multiple possible interweavimg strands for sansa to take down lf   his obsession with her also means hel never see it comming!

I doubt it will come down to a physical confrontation.  If it does, Littlefinger is probably doomed anyway.  More likely we will see intrigue, influence and political machinations.  There is plenty to work with; the guy's got more skeletons in his closet than a small cemetery.  Something is bound to come tumbling out (for instance, GRRM didn't put whip marks on Jeyne Poole's back for kicks; something is going on).  And when they do, I expect he will find out he has fewer friends than he thought.

Myranda Royce is a bit of a wild card.  She's interested in Harry, so may regard Sansa as a possible rival or threat.  However, I don't think Sansa is really that interested so they could become friends as well.  She could also tell Sansa interesting news.  Imagine if Sansa finds out Arya is married to Ramsay.  She might wonder what else she isn't being told, and why.

Shadrick is also a bit of a mystery.  I'm not convinced he knows Alayne is really Sansa.  I think he is a red herring meant to distract us.

There is also the possibility of visitors.  Brianne (with Podrick, who knows Sansa) and Arya are both possibilities, especially if they have figured out she is hiding there.

Another question to ponder is when, how, and why Sansa's identity is revealed.  If Cersei is still around, any bridges LF has will be thoroughly burned.

[astarkchoice]

49 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I doubt it will come down to a physical confrontation.  If it does, Littlefinger is probably doomed anyway.  More likely we will see intrigue, influence and political machinations.  There is plenty to work with; the guy's got more skeletons in his closet than a small cemetery.  Something is bound to come tumbling out (for instance, GRRM didn't put whip marks on Jeyne Poole's back for kicks; something is going on).  And when they do, I expect he will find out he has fewer friends than he thought.

Myranda Royce is a bit of a wild card.  She's interested in Harry, so may regard Sansa as a possible rival or threat.  However, I don't think Sansa is really that interested so they could become friends as well.  She could also tell Sansa interesting news.  Imagine if Sansa finds out Arya is married to Ramsay.  She might wonder what else she isn't being told, and why.

Shadrick is also a bit of a mystery.  I'm not convinced he knows Alayne is really Sansa.  I think he is a red herring meant to distract us.

There is also the possibility of visitors.  Brianne (with Podrick, who knows Sansa) and Arya are both possibilities, especially if they have figured out she is hiding there.

Another question to ponder is when, how, and why Sansa's identity is revealed.  If Cersei is still around, any bridges LF has will be thoroughly burned.

Yeah but when hes outplayes at the game there will be a physical confrontation of some kind hes got a very skilles merc shadowing him , other mercs comming and lyn corbrays one of the best swords in the vale.

Shadrick i think does know ...he seemed to be pretty sarcastic of briennes story of ana being her sister.

If cersei is angry thats dangerous but shes too dumb to be a player  ..lf can also drop ghe bomb about the tyrell connection to the purple wedding to make cersei engage in more self destructive anti tyrell bitchiness!