AFTER Harry: Vale Line of Succession?

[Nevets]

On 3/22/2024 at 10:24 AM, Hippocras said:

So what are your theories on who comes after Harry in the Vale succession then?

My guess is that Harry won't die, if at all, until he is married, and at least has a child on the way.  Then the child would be heir.  If he dies childless, it probably means Sweetrobin is safe.  Possibly LF could work something out with his bastard's mother and arrange for legitimation, under LF's control of course. 

That Harry currently has no heir suggests that it won't matter as far as the story is concerned.  Sorry to go meta, but sometimes you have to.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

My guess is that Harry won't die, if at all, until he is married, and at least has a child on the way.  Then the child would be heir.  If he dies childless, it probably means Sweetrobin is safe.  Possibly LF could work something out with his bastard's mother and arrange for legitimation, under LF's control of course. 

That Harry currently has no heir suggests that it won't matter as far as the story is concerned.  Sorry to go meta, but sometimes you have to.

I see your thinking, but I don't think it is so much that Harry has no heir, but rather that GRRM has not told us yet who it is. The reason he has not told us yet is that it is very much tied up with Littlefinger's scheming, so we would be able to predict some important surprises if we had all the info. He is deliberately concealing.

But this does not mean he has not given us any clues that we will be able to see clearly enough in retrospect, once we know. I think:

1. Both Ned and Robert were Arryn wards in the Vale in part because they were, by some degree, relatives of Jon Arryn. Yes, Jon's alliance with both families was born during the Ninepenny Kings conflict of 260 and could on the surface be unrelated to blood ties. Except not really. Not when you take in all the family tree hints spread here and there, and all the little hints dropped in the histories.

2. House Tully, meanwhile, was an important alliance for Jon because of how many Vale Houses have become inter-twined with Riverlands ones, affecting the internal dynamics of both regions. House Tully is the glue that suppresses the Bracken-Blackwood dynamics wherever they spread.

3. While the Arryn tree is very much incomplete, we know, for example, that Jon Arryn had cousins. Which means, even though we have absolutely no information on the subject in an actual family tree, that his father Jasper Arryn had so-far unmentioned brothers and sisters. So the question is simple: Which families contain their descendants? Jon was born 218-220 AC. So Jasper was born in 206 AC at the absolute latest, an probably quite a bit earlier than that. He may have already born in the year of the First Blackfyre rebellion 10 years before that. Which means that Jasper's lifetime, and the alliances his father made on behalf of him and his siblings were very much tied up with the Blackfyre era.

4. The late arrival of Corbray reinforcements at the Redgrass Field may indicate that House Corbray was on the fence during the first Blackfyre rebellion. They may have had ties to House Bracken. It is a reasonable hypothesis based on this that Lord Donnel Arryn bought the Corbray support for the loyalist cause by betrothing his heir (Jasper or Japer's father) to a Corbray daughter. 

5. Another tid-bit we have that is of possible relevance is the tournament at Maidenpool in 208. I have, frankly, no idea WHY we have this information unless it is meant as an oblique clue. It is odd. The main thing that stands out of course is that even though Maidenpool is not in the Vale, almost all of the participants mentioned WERE from the Vale. Was this a wedding tournament? Someone connected to Houses Arryn, Royce and Hardyng in the year 208 married a Mooton?

Edited March 24 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Continued.

6. Since we know so little about Jasper Arryn's father, mother, brothers or sisters, or his wife, we can at least look at his name and see if that gives any plausible ideas. There are very few Jaspers in this series and of those, most are found in the Vale and were clearly named AFTER Jasper Arryn - so they are not his ancestors. The first known Jasper chronologically is Jasper Wylde. A Stormlander, and an early supporter of the Greens before it was even known if his liege Borros Baratheon would support the Greens. Interestingly this man who died in the Dance had 29 children born between about 80 AC and 130 AC.

Let's assume that at least 6 of them were daughters who grew to adulthood and had children born to different families. One or two of them would have found matches in the Stormlands (probably House Swann), but the others would have married into different regions because of alliances JW made as a member of the Small Council. All prominent Greens supporters are suspects, but for the sake of this discussion we should probably consider House Bracken as part of the path that most likely leads to Jasper Arryn because this House connects the most logically to the other Houses we suspect of having connections to House Wylde.

Wylde + Bracken = Wilde/Bracken son or daughter born around the time of the Dance.

He/she married a Corbray as a peace-making alliance after the Dance (House Wylde also may have made a direct match in this period with House Corbray). House Corbray also has other (Blacks, loyalists) alliances in the Vale. Corbrays are descended from a Tarth tripplet, and Tarths would also likely have some links to House Wylde.

This Wylde(Bracken)Corbray descendant is betrothed to an Arryn to secure Corbray help for Daeron II during the First Blackfyre rebellion. They have at least one child, but there is evidence for more because Jon had cousins. One son is Jasper Arryn. Jasper's children are then married to Corbray rival Houses in the Vale - Royce, Belmore, Waynwood.

Tracing the name Jasper raises the possibility that Jasper Redfort's mother was another one of Jon Arryn's cousins or that or Jasper Redfort descended from Jasper Wylde by a different path. It could also have been just a case of naming in honour of Jasper Arryn of course. Still, as none of Jasper's children made an alliance with House Redfort, it stands to reason that maybe he had a sister or aunt who did marry into that family. A question of balancing rivalries.

 

Still, there is the possibility that Jasper Redfort is next in line after Harry because of this.

 

Edited March 25 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Tully-Arryn

Unlike with the Baratheons and Stark there is no specific reason given yet (if only partially) for the association of Houses Tully and Arryn that led to Jon and Lysa's marriage. But I am convinced, as I said above, that Littlefinger's interest in Cat and then Sansa is related to ambition. People don't need to agree with me: It remains possible that Littlefinger could see that Sansa has a claim to the Vale regardless. He could always have loved Cat AND have recognized that she potentially had an important claim.

If Cat had a claim then she got it either via Minisa Whent or via Hoster Tully's mother. This second and more direct scenario would of course mean that the Blackfish also has an even better claim, and Edmure would be ahead in line as well.

Hoster Tully was born in 238-240 AC. His mother could have been a sister or a niece of Jasper Arryn, whose own mother as we already saw may have been a Bracken-Corbray. Jasper Arryn was born at the very latest in 206 and might not have been the eldest. His brothers and/or sisters would have been born somewhere between 190 AC and 220 AC.

Minisa Whent was born in or before 248 AC. If she descended from a brother or sister of Jasper Arryn then likely two generations passed between. ie. Jasper's younger brother or sister wed some Blackwood ally somewhere (because: peace and balance and influence in the time of Bloodraven) around 222, and THEIR daughter married Lord Whent around 238 AC.

 

[Nevets]

On 3/24/2024 at 10:08 AM, Hippocras said:

I see your thinking, but I don't think it is so much that Harry has no heir, but rather that GRRM has not told us yet who it is. The reason he has not told us yet is that it is very much tied up with Littlefinger's scheming, so we would be able to predict some important surprises if we had all the info. He is deliberately concealing.

But this does not mean he has not given us any clues that we will be able to see clearly enough in retrospect, once we know. I think:

1. Both Ned and Robert were Arryn wards in the Vale in part because they were, by some degree, relatives of Jon Arryn. Yes, Jon's alliance with both families was born during the Ninepenny Kings conflict of 260 and could on the surface be unrelated to blood ties. Except not really. Not when you take in all the family tree hints spread here and there, and all the little hints dropped in the histories.

2. House Tully, meanwhile, was an important alliance for Jon because of how many Vale Houses have become inter-twined with Riverlands ones, affecting the internal dynamics of both regions. House Tully is the glue that suppresses the Bracken-Blackwood dynamics wherever they spread.

3. While the Arryn tree is very much incomplete, we know, for example, that Jon Arryn had cousins. Which means, even though we have absolutely no information on the subject in an actual family tree, that his father Jasper Arryn had so-far unmentioned brothers and sisters. So the question is simple: Which families contain their descendants? Jon was born 218-220 AC. So Jasper was born in 206 AC at the absolute latest, an probably quite a bit earlier than that. He may have already born in the year of the First Blackfyre rebellion 10 years before that. Which means that Jasper's lifetime, and the alliances his father made on behalf of him and his siblings were very much tied up with the Blackfyre era.

4. The late arrival of Corbray reinforcements at the Redgrass Field may indicate that House Corbray was on the fence during the first Blackfyre rebellion. They may have had ties to House Bracken. It is a reasonable hypothesis based on this that Lord Donnel Arryn bought the Corbray support for the loyalist cause by betrothing his heir (Jasper or Japer's father) to a Corbray daughter. 

5. Another tid-bit we have that is of possible relevance is the tournament at Maidenpool in 208. I have, frankly, no idea WHY we have this information unless it is meant as an oblique clue. It is odd. The main thing that stands out of course is that even though Maidenpool is not in the Vale, almost all of the participants mentioned WERE from the Vale. Was this a wedding tournament? Someone connected to Houses Arryn, Royce and Hardyng in the year 208 married a Mooton?

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story.  It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. 

She will have to make do with her already known connection to Sweetrobin, combined with her newly acquired talents.  I see no indication that GRRM is setting up anything else unless it is to fall under LF's thrall.  And that doesn't require a newfound heir either.  Harry has no heir not because GRRM is hiding something, but because it really doesn't matter for the story.

[Loose Bolt]

We know that Harry has some bastards. So if one of them is a boy and he survives long enough to grow old enough to make a claim and somehow gains enough political and military support to enforce that claim then that male bastard could inherit the Vale. But chances of that happening are very low.

[Hippocras]

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story.  It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. 

She will have to make do with her already known connection to Sweetrobin, combined with her newly acquired talents.  I see no indication that GRRM is setting up anything else unless it is to fall under LF's thrall.  And that doesn't require a newfound heir either.  Harry has no heir not because GRRM is hiding something, but because it really doesn't matter for the story.

I think you not giving me enough credit. There is rich and layered thinking that has gone into my lineage investigations, and it is ALWAYS ulitimately about the main story, and the main characters. It is not an irrelevant digression on an irrelevant region.

This is not really all that much about the Vale, except in the sense that the Vale offers a power base with one of the only armies that remains strong after the rest were decimated by the earlier conflicts. Who controls that army and to what ends is significant.

Harry is an irrelevant and peripheral character. The ONLY thing he contributes ultimately is a red flag that we should dive in to the relevance of lineages and family alliances in the upcoming main events of the series. It is a red flag that the Waynwoods are so connected with Houses Frey and Crakehall. Another that the Redforts are connected to Houses Bolton and Ryswell.

I think anyone who believes that LF actually intends for Sansa to marry Harry is being quite blind. No, Littlefinger is planning for what comes AFTER Harry. So we should be trying to decipher that as well.

Edited March 27 by Hippocras

[House Cambodia]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story.  It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. 

I'm with Hippocras here. In addition to the LF/Sansa intrigue, The Vale is the Westerosi equivalent of today's Sweden - it has a formidable army that's done naff all for decades, but given that the others are all decimated, it will have a major role to play.

[Vaegon the dragonless]

The problem with the Vale sucession line is that we simply have not enough information, and that is true about quite a few of the main house but yeah we just dont know. Your Theory @Hippocras is as good as any other, I would say it relies too much on conjecture, for exemple the arrival of the Knigth of the Vale (not just the Corbray's) a little late to the Redgrass field could be because of a big number of reason outside of the Corbray being on the fence, actually the Vale forces where commanded by the Lord Arryn, but the Corbray's mentionned was on the kingsguard so most likely the Corbray were strongly on the Targaryen side wich would be confirmed by the Corbray's still being somewhat loyal to the Targaryen in the early moments of Robert Rebellion before changing sides. And for the Arryn-Tully alliances we know why it happened, Jon was getting old, he had just lost one of is heirs and needed a son ASAP, Lysa was damaged goods in Hoster eyes and he wanted her married ASAP too. So Jon getting a wife that he know is fertile and could be popping baby Arryns very soon is good for him since he does not know how long he still has, and Hoster is getting is daugther married to one of the greatest lord of the realm even after the Littlefinger affair wich would have been a relief for him. There is no need for a stronger connection other then a match was possible there and then and each party wanted it to happen quickly. So to go back to the Vale sucession, we only here about Harry the Heir quite late, in fact Sansa had never heard of him even tho he should be one of the more important person in the realm, being 3rd in line for one of the Kingdom behind a very old man (who ends up dying at the begining of the books) and a very sickly child who most people would not see living very long. Harry seems to be barely know of outside of the Vale, so in all likelyhood Harry's own heir could litteraly be anyone in the Vale, it could be one of Dolorous Edd brothers for all we know, or it could be a very distant cousin that will just appear from the mountains if Sweet Robin and Harry both die.

[Hippocras]

32 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

The problem with the Vale sucession line is that we simply have not enough information, and that is true about quite a few of the main house but yeah we just dont know. Your Theory @Hippocras is as good as any other, I would say it relies too much on conjecture, for exemple the arrival of the Knigth of the Vale (not just the Corbray's) a little late to the Redgrass field could be because of a big number of reason outside of the Corbray being on the fence, actually the Vale forces where commanded by the Lord Arryn, but the Corbray's mentionned was on the kingsguard so most likely the Corbray were strongly on the Targaryen side wich would be confirmed by the Corbray's still being somewhat loyal to the Targaryen in the early moments of Robert Rebellion before changing sides. And for the Arryn-Tully alliances we know why it happened, Jon was getting old, he had just lost one of is heirs and needed a son ASAP, Lysa was damaged goods in Hoster eyes and he wanted her married ASAP too. So Jon getting a wife that he know is fertile and could be popping baby Arryns very soon is good for him since he does not know how long he still has, and Hoster is getting is daugther married to one of the greatest lord of the realm even after the Littlefinger affair wich would have been a relief for him. There is no need for a stronger connection other then a match was possible there and then and each party wanted it to happen quickly. So to go back to the Vale sucession, we only here about Harry the Heir quite late, in fact Sansa had never heard of him even tho he should be one of the more important person in the realm, being 3rd in line for one of the Kingdom behind a very old man (who ends up dying at the begining of the books) and a very sickly child who most people would not see living very long. Harry seems to be barely know of outside of the Vale, so in all likelyhood Harry's own heir could litteraly be anyone in the Vale, it could be one of Dolorous Edd brothers for all we know, or it could be a very distant cousin that will just appear from the mountains if Sweet Robin and Harry both die.

Sure, it COULD be anything.

The main point is this: Yes, Harry WAS introduced very late. IMO that means his time in this story is short. His real purpose is not to marry Sansa and live happily ever after. Rather, his real purpose is that there is an issue of succession we should be looking into, and which no doubt Pertyr Baelish HAS been looking into at great length since before the Rebellion.

And when we do eventually find out who is next in line after Harry, it will, I am VERY certain, be someone we already know.

 

Also, please note, the Redgraass Field battle, where the Corbrays were late, was not in Robert's Rebellion. It was the First Blackfyre Rebellion. And yes, the reinforcements arrived with a Corbray Kingsguard, but Ser Gwayne of the Kingsguard was not Lord Corbray at the time. It would not be the first time a Kingsguard's loyalties might have been at odds with the choices of their family of origin. Lord Corbray may have needed his relative's persuasion.

 

Edited April 19 by Hippocras

[Vaegon the dragonless]

20 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Sure, it COULD be anything.

The main point is this: Yes, Harry WAS introduced very late. IMO that means his time in this story is short. His real purpose is not to marry Sansa and live happily ever after. Rather, his real purpose is that there is an issue of succession we should be looking into, and which no doubt Pertyr Baelish HAS been looking into at great length since before the Rebellion.

And when we do eventually find out who is next in line after Harry, it will, I am VERY certain, be someone we already know.

 

Also, please note, the Redgraass Field battle, where the Corbrays were late, was not in Robert's Rebellion. It was the First Blackfyre Rebellion. And yes, the reinforcements arrived with a Corbray Kingsguard, but Ser Gwayne of the Kingsguard was not Lord Corbray at the time. It would not be the first time a Kingsguard's loyalties might have been at odds with the choices of their family of origin.

 

Well on the reason I believe Harry came so late in the story is the same one for why the Stark are reduced to one family at the time of the books, GRRM is a "gardener" not a "planner" so he dint think about the Vale succession at the start of the books, then when the Vale became more important then he needed someone in the Vale to be a Arryn other then Sweet Robin, so the son of the sister of the previous heir before Sweet Robin being born comes in, it is quite a far connection when you think about it and to me it is a good excuse for not learning about him before (but the reality is that GRRM just did not think about that when he introduced the Arryn's). And I doubt it will be someone we already know because other wise why was that not mentioned before hand ? Being 3rd in line to the Arryn throne is not like inheriting a small cabin from a far removed cousin or uncle it is the sort of thing you would know about, especially in the feudal context. After all Harry seems to have been at least partially groomed to be a lord, the next guy might not be but he would certainly know is place in the succession and so would we. But again the lack of information of the Arryn family tree means that either of us are equally correct.

 

And yes I am very aware that the Redgrass field was long before Roberts rebellion but like I said it was not a Corbray that was leading them it was Donnel Arryn, a Arryn not a Corbray, in fact I cant find anything indicating that the Corbray's were late, the Knights of the Vale were in the Vanguard were Lord Donnel died as well as a Templeton and Waynwood, and Gwayne Corbray was part of that Van, other then him I cant find any mention of other Corbray's at the Redgrass Field, so I would assume that if there where more then they would with the rest of the Vale in the Targaryen Vanguard, and not late to the battle.

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

Well on the reason I believe Harry came so late in the story is the same one for why the Stark are reduced to one family at the time of the books, GRRM is a "gardener" not a "planner" so he dint think about the Vale succession at the start of the books

Seriously doubt this.

The second GRRM made SR a character that was weak and sickly, he also had a story in mind for the Vale's inheritance. His "gardening" is too often used as an excuse to argue that GRRM does not know where things are going, broadly. I don't buy it.

Littlefinger's entire scheme is, at its core, based on messing with lines of inheritance to his own advantage. And he is from the Vale. So that is where his schemes began. GRRM has been therefore planning for succession to become an issue in the Vale since the very first book.

[Vaegon the dragonless]

1 minute ago, Hippocras said:

Seriously doubt this.

The second GRRM made SR a character that was weak and sickly, he also had a story in mind for the Vale's inheritance. His "gardening" is too often used as an excuse to argue that GRRM does not know where things are going, broadly. I don't buy it.

Littlefinger's entire scheme is, at its core, based on messing with lines of inheritance to his own advantage. And he is from the Vale. So that is where his schemes began. GRRM has been therefore planning for succession to become an issue in the Vale since the very first book.

I mean yeah it is possible but Littlefinger's scheme are not always has good as he want to make us think they are, Littlefinger thrives in chaos he is not a long term planner he is more of a opportunist then anything so him having a back up to a back up to control the Vale is not really likely, at least to me. 

And the thing is GRRM as not giving us alot to go on as far as family trees go, for exemple we have no idea who would inherit the North should Ned and all is children die who is the true heir to the North ? I mean a northern Harry the heir should be somewhere and could and should be a rallying call to the Anti-Bolton North but it just does not happen, same with the Stormlands, with Roberts children illegitimate, Stannis only having one daughter and Renly having no heir, who will inherit the Stormlands, we have some indication that it could be a Estremont but that is not clear, so it seems to me that GRRM most likely did not put as much thoughts on the succession lines of the great houses as we the readers on this forum put it to it.

[Hippocras]

24 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

And the thing is GRRM as not giving us alot to go on as far as family trees go, for exemple we have no idea who would inherit the North should Ned and all is children die who is the true heir to the North ? I mean a northern Harry the heir should be somewhere and could and should be a rallying call to the Anti-Bolton North but it just does not happen, same with the Stormlands, with Roberts children illegitimate, Stannis only having one daughter and Renly having no heir, who will inherit the Stormlands, we have some indication that it could be a Estremont but that is not clear, so it seems to me that GRRM most likely did not put as much thoughts on the succession lines of the great houses as we the readers on this forum put it to it.

I think in general when it comes to the family trees, we should consider it likely that some information is known by GRRM to the extent that it needs to be but has not been released. He hides stuff that matters so that he can tell the story his way in his own time.

As for the North, I actually think there too the line of succession after Ned's kids is about to become relevant. I think it is very likely one of the considerations determining how various families are aligning themselves at this stage of the game.

We KNOW that the Frey family is about to descend into infighting. But IMO that is actually a bit of a metaphor for the dynamics of most of the regions of Westeros in Winds.

Edited April 19 by Hippocras

[Vaegon the dragonless]

3 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I think in general when it comes to the family trees, we should consider it likely that some information is known by GRRM to the extent that it needs to be but has not been released. He hides stuff that matters so that he can tell the story his way in his own time.

As for the North, I actually think there too the line of succession after Ned's kids is about to become relevant. I think it is very likely one of the considerations determining how various families are aligning themselves at this stage of the game.

We KNOW that the Frey family is about to descend into infighting. But IMO that is actually a bit of a metaphor for the dynamics of most of the regions of Westeros in Winds.

I dont think we are going to agree on that, I just dont think that GRRM actually thinks that much about all the lines of succession, other wise we would have family's around since thousands of years, I also remember that GRRM stated that at the start of the series he made a few of mistakes and mix ups that the founder of the site helped to correct in the world book, so if the information is not important to the main story then it most likely just does not exist, and the person third in line to the Arryn throne is really not important as long has one and two survive and have heirs. Futhermore if Harry and Robert both die the chance that it happens in the chaos of the long night and potential second dance of the dragons would mean that the new ruler of Westeros could put who he would want. For all we know Bronn could end up in the Eyries by the end of the books.

[Hippocras]

7 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

I dont think we are going to agree on that, I just dont think that GRRM actually thinks that much about all the lines of succession, other wise we would have family's around since thousands of years, I also remember that GRRM stated that at the start of the series he made a few of mistakes and mix ups that the founder of the site helped to correct in the world book, so if the information is not important to the main story then it most likely just does not exist, and the person third in line to the Arryn throne is really not important as long has one and two survive and have heirs. Futhermore if Harry and Robert both die the chance that it happens in the chaos of the long night and potential second dance of the dragons would mean that the new ruler of Westeros could put who he would want. For all we know Bronn could end up in the Eyries by the end of the books.

But it does exist. It is in the histories.

Think of it this way: he wants a family to be allied with another family at a certain point in time. He doe NOT want to invent full names, descriptions and birthdates for every single person in Westeros. So instead of providing a complete tree, he “gardens” by picking first names that hint at connections, as well as little historical annecdotes. This way we know that the relationships exist but he does not need to precisely define, immediately, the details of them.

[Vaegon the dragonless]

36 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

But it does exist. It is in the histories.

Think of it this way: he wants a family to be allied with another family at a certain point in time. He doe NOT want to invent full names, descriptions and birthdates for every single person in Westeros. So instead of providing a complete tree, he “gardens” by picking first names that hint at connections, as well as little historical annecdotes. This way we know that the relationships exist but he does not need to precisely define, immediately, the details of them.

Yes but only to a extent, and we dont have complete history's so sure we can find some clues but realistically the fact that the Mooton married the Moore at the time of Jahaerys does not mean anything to the story now. And like I said earlier part of your theories are too much conjecture, you talked of a link between Brackens and Corbray because the Corbray arrived late at the Redgrass field, but they most likely didnt and even if they did why would they have a family connection to the Brackens and not to one or the others Blackfyre associated house like the Strikeland or Sunderland ? 

But I dont think we will convince each other so lets agree to disagree

[Hippocras]

3 minutes ago, Vaegon the dragonless said:

Yes but only to a extent, and we dont have complete history's so sure we can find some clues but realistically the fact that the Mooton married the Moore at the time of Jahaerys does not mean anything to the story now. And like I said earlier part of your theories are too much conjecture, you talked of a link between Brackens and Corbray because the Corbray arrived late at the Redgrass field, but they most likely didnt and even if they did why would they have a family connection to the Brackens and not to one or the others Blackfyre associated house like the Strikeland or Sunderland ? 

But I dont think we will convince each other so lets agree to disagree

The Corbray connection could easily be to another Blackfyre supporting house to the same effect, yes.

But certain things are clear:

1. The Brackens and Blackwood have been at each other’s throats for 1000 years.

2. The Royces have very very frequently been in conflict with the Corbrays. This goes back to the coming of the Andals. It is almost on the same level as the Blackwood/Bracken mess but not quite.

3. The Royces have several alliances with the Blackwoods.

4. So of the Brackens were themselves looking for allies in the Vale, a traditional Royce rival would be an attractive notion.

5. The current events of ASOIF show very very deep integration between the Riverlands and the Vale. Yet somehow the Brackens are missing in what has been revealed so far. It is unlikely that they are absent in spite of that lack of information if we know that the Blackwoods, Freys, Tullys and more have married with Vale families.

 

[Vaegon the dragonless]

36 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

The Corbray connection could easily be to another Blackfyre supporting house to the same effect, yes.

But certain things are clear:

1. The Brackens and Blackwood have been at each other’s throats for 1000 years.

2. The Royces have very very frequently been in conflict with the Corbrays. This goes back to the coming of the Andals. It is almost on the same level as the Blackwood/Bracken mess but not quite.

3. The Royces have several alliances with the Blackwoods.

4. So of the Brackens were themselves looking for allies in the Vale, a traditional Royce rival would be an attractive notion.

5. The current events of ASOIF show very very deep integration between the Riverlands and the Vale. Yet somehow the Brackens are missing in what has been revealed so far. It is unlikely that they are absent in spite of that lack of information if we know that the Blackwoods, Freys, Tullys and more have married with Vale families.

 

1. Yeah I agree with that part.

2. Well not really, they were in conflict before the Vale was united but since then with exception of the 134 AC succession dispute they seem like they were on the same side more then against, both where Blacks, then Targaryen loyalist and eventually both would support Robert (the Corbray's might have tried to play both sides but its not sure), would not call them natural ennemies like the Brackens and Blackwoods, or the Yronwoods and Martells.

3. Yes, but to me it is more to do with the fact that the Royce and Blackwoods have strong first men connection and are both in the South, after all both house also intermarried with the North, so rather then a Corbray/Bracken vs Royce/Blackwood we have a Royce/Blackwood/Stark connection because of First men blood. Also important to note that the Corbray fit into the that since a Corbray married the daughter of a Royce/Stark match, so that supposed Royce Corbray seems quite slime.

4. Like I said the Corbray/Royce rivalry does not seem to hold up to me, so the Brackens trying to find allies in the Vale would not automatically mean a Corbray connection, furthermore we actually dont know any of the Bracken marriages so they could be from any number of origin, and since most of the blacks seem to come from the Reach, this is were I would guess the Brackens would try to find matchs, that is after looking around them, after all why would the Brackens care that the Blackwoods are allied to the ROyce on the other side of the mountains if the Brackens are allied with the Vance or Mallisters on the good side of the Moon mountains to help them straight away.

5. Like I said just above we have no information about Bracken mariages, but the fact that we know about so much Blackwood mariages seems to me that GRRM has a bias for the Blackwoods (I made a thread about that a while back asking about that) but I dont believe that it is because like that GRRM can pull out connections between houses 6 books in from nowhere and them having a big impact on the overarching story. 

[Hippocras]

Royce Corbray Conflicts:

Qyle Corbray killed by Robar Royce, Lady Forlorn taken.
Jaime (interesting) Corbray one of possible killers of Robar in turn, reclaiming of Lady Forlorn as evidence.

In 37 AC Jonos Arryn killed his brother in an attempt to claim the Vale and reject the Targaryens. His supporters in this have not yet been named but the name Jonos appears subsequently in only the Bracken and Frey families, and Allard Royce led the fight against Jonos Arryn. Ronnel was married to a Stark, possibly had living female descendants but no male heir. Jonos was married to….don’t know, and descendants also unknown. At this point the Corbrays had recently benefited from a Tarth (Targ descent) match so were probably not allied with Jonos against the crown. But Jonos’s allies would have been from zealously Andal families as this was likely a major part of the reason why the rebelled against Ronnel and his Stark wife, as well as the reason for Allard’s defense of Ronnel. 

Gunthor Royce killed Cowyn Corbray in 134
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Arryn_succession_conflict_(134_AC)

 

to be continued tomorrow. Good night.