Will House Martell Ultimately Win the Game of Thrones?

[Catarina Vale]

Good, There are no winners in this game. There will only be survivors. And I don't believe Doran will be one of them. I think your plans are reasonable, the issue of marriage ties is something very traditional. But his big problem is his daughter. She is extremely immature and vain. I still can't believe he was able to send her to that devastated region of Westeros. Complete madness. But having incompetent children is not a gift that only Doran has. Tywin says so.

[Angel Eyes]

On 5/7/2024 at 1:26 PM, BlackLightning said:

Yeah, maybe against the Lannisters.

But ultimately? No.

I think it's pretty well established that Prince Doran has missed multiple opportunities. At least four. But even if he had caught ahold of one opportunity, he has not even prepared his family for said opportunities

• Ellaria and Mellario have both opted out, with Mellario saying that she'd rather be on the other side of the world than deal with him.
• Oberyn's lack of self-control not only destroyed himself, but it also destroyed some of the best advantages and tools that the Martells had
• Arianne and Quentyn are completely out of their league. They weren't raised right.
• The Sand Snakes are ticking time bombs, all parts worse than their father. They also weren't raised right.
• Trystane is even less prepared than Arianne and Quentyn...and that's saying something.
• Manfrey and his side of the family are glorified butlers.

Even if everything went Doran's way, things would have still backfired and gone sideways because he would've been the only one who was ready.

I understand the need for secrecy, but Doran is a terrible communicator.

Doran didn't even need secrecy, at least for the first leg of the journey (and in fact the attempts at secrecy gave the game away right off the bat). He could have just announced that Quentyn was going on a tour of Essos as Tyrion tried to do and Quentyn would have had more opportunity than most Westerosi elite to visit Essos since his mother was in Norvos.

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/the-windblown-grass-doran-martell/

[Protagoras]

Doran is by far the worst player among the great houses. At least Mace Tyrell doesn't actively try to sabotage for his own familiy members and at least Balon had a decent plan, that he puts into work terrible. Doran however has incredibly bad plans that usually means that he does nothing - he strikes a marriage alliance and does nothing to make sure Viserys actually has a decent standard of living - something he can easily do. I think he is GRRMs subversion of the wise old man with the "master plan" - what if the plan actually suck?

He has no idea on how to use his resources, sending Quentin to a place he wasn't ready for (in the dumbest way possible) while sending his hot-headed brother to King's Landing. Even a complete fool would have switched their assignments and then we havn't even talked about the idiocy to try to keep it secret instead of actually declaring "my son will tour the free cities and visit his mother". But he likes to be careful and hedges everything - to the point that he can't make his moves. Doran is the player that in a board game would refuse to commit to a strategy and then lose because of that. 

He also have no idea how to apply his plans and who to trust with what information. He fails to understand that he could fall down dead and then someone needs to continue his work. all his "plans" are non-commits that more or less hopes that things will work in his favour while giving nothing. Honestly I prefer Arianne immensly - at least she does shit, and while her death seems likely she will at least succeed for a time in her marriage with Aegon. That's more success than Doran ever had.

Dorne is better off without him. Honestly, I might even prefer the sandsnakes in charge. 

[BlackLightning]

5 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Doran is by far the worst player among the great houses. At least Mace Tyrell doesn't actively try to sabotage his own family members and at least Balon had a decent plan, that he puts into work terrible. Doran however has incredibly bad plans that usually means that he does nothing - he strikes a marriage alliance and does nothing to make sure Viserys actually has a decent standard of living - something he can easily do. I think he is GRRMs subversion of the wise old man with the "master plan" - what if the plan actually suck?

He has no idea on how to use his resources, sending Quentin to a place he wasn't ready for (in the dumbest way possible) while sending his hot-headed brother to King's Landing. Even a complete fool would have switched their assignments and then we haven't even talked about the idiocy to try to keep it secret instead of actually declaring "my son will tour the free cities and visit his mother". But he likes to be careful and hedges everything - to the point that he can't make his moves. Doran is the player that in a board game would refuse to commit to a strategy and then lose because of that. 

He also has no idea how to apply his plans and who to trust with what information. He fails to understand that he could fall down dead and then someone needs to continue his work. all his "plans" are non-commits that more or less hopes that things will work in his favour while giving nothing. Honestly, I prefer Arianne immensely - at least she does shit, and while her death seems likely she will at least succeed for a time in her marriage with Aegon. That's more success than Doran ever had.

Dorne is better off without him. Honestly, I might even prefer the sandsnakes in charge. 

Well said

I highlighted all the major reasons why he is a terrible player.

But I think Arianne and the Sand Snakes have a bigger part to play in the upcoming shenanigans that will cripple or destroy House Martell.

Simply put I think Arianne and/or the Sand Snakes will think antagonizing both Euron and Dany is good idea.

[Protagoras]

8 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

But I think Arianne and the Sand Snakes have a bigger part to play in the upcoming shenanigans that will cripple or destroy House Martell.

Oh, Arianne and the sand snakes will die for sure, but at least they do shit.They will die because they made a decent move and lost. 

What most likely happens is - Arianne and Dorne joins and marry Aegon and they take King's Landing, so initially much success. Then they die when Daenerys comes. But they at least will get some sort of vengeance. Cersei will see her childen die - maybe even directly by Lady Nyms hand and Margaery Tyrell will lose her trial, with Tyene representing the maiden. And for a moment Arianne will be queen. If not for Daenerys this is an excellent outcome.

Whereas everything Doran touches withers. 

[Angel Eyes]

6 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Whereas everything Doran touches withers. 

He doesn't need to touch it to wither, i.e. Viserys.

Or is that when he doesn't touch something it withers?...

Edited May 15, 2024 by Angel Eyes

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

He doesn't need to touch it to wither, i.e. Viserys.

Or is that when he doesn't touch something it withers?...

All dogs are animals, but not all animals are dogs.

[sifth]

I would love for them to win, simply by doing nothing. It would be rather fun.

[Angel Eyes]

A couple things I was contemplating with Doran: has he thrown his hat in with Varys and Illyrio? That could provide an in-universe reason he leaves Viserys out to dry despite tying his daughter in a secret pact.

The other is: was the Viserys marriage retconned in? There's no mention of it in earlier parts of the books and the placement of the match is rather odd.

[Ring3r]

I think no.

We have the symbolism of the overripe oranges - Doran always waits too long.

All his previous plans have failed and his whole family thinks he's weak.

If I had to guess at what will happen to him - I think he'll likely be assassinated by Gerold Dayne (Darkstar) in a coup d'etat.  He's currently being hunted by Balon Swan and Obara Sand.  We know that Obara Sand despises Doran's weakness and wants revenge for the death of her father.  I expect she'll lead Swan to Darkstar, Darkstar will kill him (perhaps with Dawn if he steals it), and Obara will join him...and probably enlist all the other Sand Snakes besides Salara.  And they'll target Doran.

According to Doran, Darkstar is the most dangerous man in Dorne. I know the fandom loves to hate him (the line "I am of the night" really is ridiculous) but he's being set-up as extremely skilled and dangerous.

[chrisdaw]

For the folly of seeking revenge and risking his children to do so Doran is destined to receive the punishment he had planned for Tywin, to see everything he loves taken from him before he dies. Doran will outlive Trystane, Arianne and probably all the Sand Snakes, then he will die or be killed.

[Angel Eyes]

On 5/21/2024 at 9:14 PM, Ring3r said:

According to Doran, Darkstar is the most dangerous man in Dorne. I know the fandom loves to hate him (the line "I am of the night" really is ridiculous) but he's being set-up as extremely skilled and dangerous.

Like Daario?

[Ring3r]

3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Like Daario?

Eh, I'd say Gerold is significantly more dangerous. He's probably at least as good of a swordsman...the people around him certainly appear to fear him....but he's also very politically dangerous.  Out of everyone, he appears to desire open war with the Lannisters the most...and he's almost certainly going to go after Dawn.  Basically the only reason he was added to the story is that when GRRM scrapped the 5 year gap, he was left without Dayne old enough to weild Dawn.

Daario is undoubtedly extremely dangerous in a fight, but he doesn't wield any political power.  Even Dany, as much as she likes him, knows to trust her other advisors more.  He's a sellsword.

[Angel Eyes]

On 5/23/2024 at 7:50 PM, Ring3r said:

Eh, I'd say Gerold is significantly more dangerous. He's probably at least as good of a swordsman...the people around him certainly appear to fear him....but he's also very politically dangerous.  Out of everyone, he appears to desire open war with the Lannisters the most...and he's almost certainly going to go after Dawn.  Basically the only reason he was added to the story is that when GRRM scrapped the 5 year gap, he was left without Dayne old enough to weild Dawn.

Daario is undoubtedly extremely dangerous in a fight, but he doesn't wield any political power.  Even Dany, as much as she likes him, knows to trust her other advisors more.  He's a sellsword.

Is he that good? The only thing he's done is botch an attack on a child.

[Ring3r]

12 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Is he that good? The only thing he's done is botch an attack on a child.

He's pretty universally feared among the other Dornish.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Ring3r said:

He's pretty universally feared among the other Dornish.

Yea, but a theme of this series is, "words are wind".

[Ring3r]

On 6/14/2024 at 8:36 PM, sifth said:

Yea, but a theme of this series is, "words are wind".

we'll have to wait to see if he can back up his reputation, that's true.  Bit of a Checkov's Gun though, putting him into the story.  The best argument against that....given his reputation....is that he only wounded the princess.

What if that was exactly what he wanted?  to further boil the pot....make the Lannisters look like the aggressors.

We obviously do not have enough information yet.  I think it remains an open question.

[astarkchoice]

On 6/14/2024 at 12:04 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Is he that good? The only thing he's done is botch an attack on a child.

The princess seemed to think hes a match for a kingsguard.

Its a martial culture too no one is feared on rep alone as we see sparring is common among nobles,  if darkstar was cocky and had nothing to back it up itd have been knocked out of him in his youth by other knights etc.

[astarkchoice]

On 5/22/2024 at 2:14 AM, Ring3r said:

I think no.

We have the symbolism of the overripe oranges - Doran always waits too long.

All his previous plans have failed and his whole family thinks he's weak.

If I had to guess at what will happen to him - I think he'll likely be assassinated by Gerold Dayne (Darkstar) in a coup d'etat.  He's currently being hunted by Balon Swan and Obara Sand.  We know that Obara Sand despises Doran's weakness and wants revenge for the death of her father.  I expect she'll lead Swan to Darkstar, Darkstar will kill him (perhaps with Dawn if he steals it), and Obara will join him...and probably enlist all the other Sand Snakes besides Salara.  And they'll target Doran.

According to Doran, Darkstar is the most dangerous man in Dorne. I know the fandom loves to hate him (the line "I am of the night" really is ridiculous) but he's being set-up as extremely skilled and dangerous.

Agree with the rest but obara wont betray him!  remember after a brief imprisoning doran took the sand snakes and the princess into his confidence to reveal hes not the pushover they thought and revenge was always his goal..the sand snakes arent just in on it now they are the instruments of his latest [sure to fail] scheme

[astarkchoice]

On 5/15/2024 at 5:51 PM, Protagoras said:

Doran is by far the worst player among the great houses. At least Mace Tyrell doesn't actively try to sabotage for his own familiy members and at least Balon had a decent plan, that he puts into work terrible. Doran however has incredibly bad plans that usually means that he does nothing - he strikes a marriage alliance and does nothing to make sure Viserys actually has a decent standard of living - something he can easily do. I think he is GRRMs subversion of the wise old man with the "master plan" - what if the plan actually suck?

He has no idea on how to use his resources, sending Quentin to a place he wasn't ready for (in the dumbest way possible) while sending his hot-headed brother to King's Landing. Even a complete fool would have switched their assignments and then we havn't even talked about the idiocy to try to keep it secret instead of actually declaring "my son will tour the free cities and visit his mother". But he likes to be careful and hedges everything - to the point that he can't make his moves. Doran is the player that in a board game would refuse to commit to a strategy and then lose because of that. 

He also have no idea how to apply his plans and who to trust with what information. He fails to understand that he could fall down dead and then someone needs to continue his work. all his "plans" are non-commits that more or less hopes that things will work in his favour while giving nothing. Honestly I prefer Arianne immensly - at least she does shit, and while her death seems likely she will at least succeed for a time in her marriage with Aegon. That's more success than Doran ever had.

Dorne is better off without him. Honestly, I might even prefer the sandsnakes in charge. 

Id say his problem is he waits too long and his plans have to change as circumstances change too but the plans seem to have been solid enough.

 

The viserys plan was clearly when he was still enraged over his sister and nephews/nieces. We know he and oberyn tried to raise dorne right after the rebellion only for jon arryn to travel and calm them down. The new regime although victorious wasnt secure (hence roberts paranoia) 

He did plan to marry his daughter to viserys and yes he could have finaced the exile but as we saw things changed!  His wife refused to let  his daughter be sent to essos to be linked to publicly  to the kid tjus keeping his claim alive and the boy himself was apparently unlikeable and  weak hence lukewarm reception/mockery   to him.

 

add in The targ fleet was destroyed in a storm, the yornwoods still were on bad terms with the martells leaving the dornish passes vunerable , stannis rooted out pro targs on dragonstone and surrounding islands, the viper at some stage crippled willas tyrell thus alienating their most valuable possible ally in a pro targ rebelloon, the greyjoy rebellion focused the kingdom and displayed the regimes martial prowess, stannis married a florent to threaten the tyrells to obey but at the same time  young renly not only flourished as the   normaly fractious stormlands master but  apparently developed a strong bond with one of the tyrells. Each of the original roberts rebel allaince looked increasingly stable  masters of their realms with growing broods to intermarry...all in all the viserys marriage pact looked more foolish with each passing year

 

As for the rest i believe in the red viper posion tywin theory so hes the pererct choice now the martell aims have altered.

Qyenten for all the mishaps of his voyage didnt have to fuck it up with his dragon theft idea