MMA 11 - Beatdown after the BELL!

[Analu]

don't understand US odds, what does jones -230, rua +180 mean in terms of how much of a favorite Jones is?

It means that you have to bet $230 on Jones to win $100 if he wins. Or $23 to win $10, etc. Shogun at +180 means if you bet $100 and he wins, then you win $180.

Shogun was my favorite Pride fighter, but I don't like his chances against Jones, who has fought very good, if not elite, fighters in his short career and destroyed them. He was towering over Shogun in the post-fight handshake too. I'm actually a little scared for Shogun.

I can understand why Rampage turned down the shot if he's 50lbs over, but it's kinda his own fault for being that overweight. I've met him before (last year at a 4th of July BBQ), and he's not really a huge LHW at all. He's just lazy and hates to train, by his own admission. I'd think most fighters with the inside track at getting a title shot would keep themselves in better shape, but Rampage is Rampage, and he'll do whatever the fuck he wants to do. Always has

[Ser Barry]

Rua has not got a great chance in the fight. Get on the inside and catch Jones and test that chin. I am not saying it can not be done but it sure as hell hasn't been close yet. I am looking forward to the fight because I want to see Jones tested but he seems to me to have a lot more paths to victory.

Evans vs Silva while we wait for GSP to bulk up?

[Stego]

I think Evans needs a warm-up fight or two before we throw him to Silva, don't you?

[Ken Stone]

Rua has not got a great chance in the fight. Get on the inside and catch Jones and test that chin. I am not saying it can not be done but it sure as hell hasn't been close yet. I am looking forward to the fight because I want to see Jones tested but he seems to me to have a lot more paths to victory.

Evans vs Silva while we wait for GSP to bulk up?

I like Evans in that fight, assuming the weight cut doesn't fuck with him. Unfortunately it also has the potential to be the dancingist fight in UFC history, with more fakes than punches thrown.

[Stego]

I like Evans in that fight, assuming the weight cut doesn't fuck with him. Unfortunately it also has the potential to be the dancingist fight in UFC history, with more fakes than punches thrown.

Evans lost to Machida, there is no reason to think he could beat Silva.

[Ken Stone]

Evans lost to Machida, there is no reason to think he could beat Silva.

Did Silva beat Machida when I wasn't looking? Rampage did, and Evans beat Rampage.

ETA: Evans is bigger, stronger, more explosive, and has better wrestling than Silva. He is pretty much a nightmare opponent for him.

[Horus Ex Machina]

apparently jones is the favorite against rua, how the fuck can that be, he has beat nobody of note. Rua has had wars and destroyed the previously untouchable Machida.

don't understand US odds, what does jones -230, rua +180 mean in terms of how much of a favorite Jones is?

Betting lines aren't drawn as a reward for beating notable fighters. Betting lines are made in order to maximize opportunity for the bookmakers to make money. This is not like ranking fighters. Their job is to stay ahead of the betting. Had they in any way opened up with Rua as a favorite, they would have had a run of gamblers looking to jump on those odds and they would have been setting themselves up to get taken to the cleaners. Why? Because first off Jones has fought more recently so they set the line artificially high in anticipation of enthusiasm for a victory that is more fresh in the minds of gamblers. You're not as likely to run to your bookmaker and bet on Jones if you aren't going to make as much off of your bet? At the momoment more ppl are high on Jones than Rua.

Second, his size height-wise is comparable to Forrest Griffins, and he's a far superior athlete, and a more diversely skilled and dynamic fighter. Granted I think that a Rua not coming off a long lay-off beats Griffin, there are specific aspects of Griffin's stature that would have given Rua difficulty regardless. For one thing, Rua's hands aren't very effective either way against Griffin's reach. He could run into similar problems against Jones, and isn't as likely to be able to take Jones down as easily as he did Griffin early. He's more likely to spend alot of time on his back.

You don't need to see him fight ppl who Rua has fought to imagine how a certain fight might go. All you have to do is watch the way Jones beats the ppl that he does, and watch the way Rua beats the ppl that he fights. What are their strengths? What are their weaknesses? It's all about matchups. These bookmakers know what they're doing on this line. They don't have the luxery of setting lines based off of a particular fighter's breadth of accomplishments. That's well and good when you're handing out awards or making your p4p rankings. But it isn't so much when you're deciding where to place the betting lines or make a bet on your own.

I can understand why Rampage turned down the shot if he's 50lbs over, but it's kinda his own fault for being that overweight. I've met him before (last year at a 4th of July BBQ), and he's not really a huge LHW at all. He's just lazy and hates to train, by his own admission. I'd think most fighters with the inside track at getting a title shot would keep themselves in better shape, but Rampage is Rampage, and he'll do whatever the fuck he wants to do. Always has

I was listening to Jordan Breen and he made a nice point concerning what DW and Joe Rogan are actually addressing when they comment on how a guy like say Forrest Griffin walks at 240 lbs and is a HUGE lhw.

Basically he was responding to a guy who noted that GSP doesn't walk around at much heavier than his fighting weight and therefore assumed that this meant that he wasn't really a big welterweight. Breen made the point that this only meant that GSP keeps himself in better shape between fights. He noted that Griffin at 240 lbs was fat, no way around it.

I guess I brought it up bc your question about why Rampage doesn't stay in shape year-round, but really he isn't the only one. How many guys do we hear Rogan talk about having ridiculous walk weights that would require sometimes 40+ lb weight cuts. Truthfully when cut to lean muscle at around 11-15% bodyfat, you cannot be over 15 or some odd lbs above your fight weight. Those guys are all fat between fights. Not many GSPs out there.

He also noted that Anderson Silva was a different specimen entirely. Anderson apparently cuts weight very easily, and often weighs in below 185. This is probably bc he doesn't really carry a huge amount of muscle on him. He probably just goes on a normal weight-cutting diet. Cool point you made, and I don't disagree. I just thought it tied into what I heard on Breen.

[GSP]

I imagine that Silva, as with GSP, simply doesn't let himself fall out of shape the way a lot of guys do. I doubt either of those guys has it in him to not train, and train hard, for too many days in a row. I know GSP typically is back in the gymn and hard at it in a notoriously short time after a fight.

Rampage on the other hand, spent the holidays eatin it up and relaxing a storm over in Japan. I don't blame him, and until the day I've done a killer training camp for a tough fight, won't judge a guy for needing to indulge a little bit after having been denied most things for 12 weeks.

[Analu]

Betting lines aren't drawn as a reward for beating notable fighters. Betting lines are made in order to maximize opportunity for the bookmakers to make money. This is not like ranking fighters. Their job is to stay ahead of the betting. Had they in any way opened up with Rua as a favorite, they would have had a run of gamblers looking to jump on those odds and they would have been setting themselves up to get taken to the cleaners. Why? Because first off Jones has fought more recently so they set the line artificially high in anticipation of enthusiasm for a victory that is more fresh in the minds of gamblers. You're not as likely to run to your bookmaker and bet on Jones if you aren't going to make as much off of your bet? At the momoment more ppl are high on Jones than Rua.

Agree with all this. When the lines came out, Jones was only -140 or something, which I thought was great value and so I placed a bet down. But with everyone else jumping on that line, the bookies have been steadily changing that line, because in a perfect world for them, they'd get equal money on both sides and so guarantee a profit just from the vig.

I love Shogun, but the NSAC rules here really don't benefit him in any way. If this was the Shogun 5 years ago under Pride rules (soccer kicks and foot stomps), then it might be a different story. IMO, Shogun and Wanderlei really haven't been the same since they took those weapons out of their arsenal.

I guess I brought it up bc your question about why Rampage doesn't stay in shape year-round, but really he isn't the only one. How many guys do we hear Rogan talk about having ridiculous walk weights that would require sometimes 40+ lb weight cuts. Truthfully when cut to lean muscle at around 11-15% bodyfat, you cannot be over 15 or some odd lbs above your fight weight. Those guys are all fat between fights. Not many GSPs out there.

Oh I totally get that it's not just Rampage. MMA is a grind and really wears down on your body. I know how exhausted I am, just training in it casually for fun. I've started picking up all kinds of nagging injuries the last year or two that I never have before. I think I've cracked/bruised/broken my ribs at least four times in the last two years. I broke my finger last month, and didn't realize it was broken so kept training. Now my doctor said it set all wrong and will never be quite the same.

But my main point was that he's not really a huge LHW (I had a good two inches on him) and so 240-250 is really letting himself go. He has to spend a large portion of his 12-week training camp worrying about losing all that weight, instead of already being in decent shape and concentrating on more important aspects of training and improving as a fighter. But as you said, not everyone can be a GSP.

[Stego]

Did Silva beat Machida when I wasn't looking? Rampage did, and Evans beat Rampage.

ETA: Evans is bigger, stronger, more explosive, and has better wrestling than Silva. He is pretty much a nightmare opponent for him.

A couple of points:

-Silva and Machida are similar fighters, except that Silva is better.

-Rampage did not beat Machida. Cecil Peoples beat Machida. Rampage is a joke. Can we just forget the title fight ducking fat titty has-been, please?

-Evans is not bigger than Silva. He weighs more at the moment, but is shorter with less reach.

-At 185, I doubt he is stronger.

-Evans isn't even the best fighter at 205 in his own camp. I'm a fan of him, but let's keep this in perspective.

-Silva could win the 205lb championship if he wanted it. No problem.

[Ken Stone]

A couple of points:

-Silva and Machida are similar fighters, except that Silva is better.

??? Have you been watching the same fights I have? On the feet Machida is karate point fighter. Grappling Machida uses foot trips to take down opponents and G&P. Defensively he uses feints and footwork to avoid damage on the feet, and excellent balance and foot speed to avoid takedowns.

Silva is a MT specalist who prefers counter striking. He never takes opponents down, and if taken down uses BJJ to fight off his back. Defensively he uses head movement and his long reach to avoid damage and set up his own strikes.

There fighting styles are not similar at all.

-At 185, I doubt he is stronger.

Where do you get this idea that Silva is super strong? He's fast and accurate but I highly doubt he is stronger than a guy with a background in wrestling who used to throw around heavy weights much bigger than himself.

[Ser Barry]

Silva beats Jones no problem? I'll buy it for now because Jones' BJJ is rudimentary and so I don't think he keeps Silva down but that advantage is on a countdown.

[Stego]

Silva beats Jones no problem? I'll buy it for now because Jones' BJJ is rudimentary and so I don't think he keeps Silva down but that advantage is on a countdown.

I think he has head movement that Jones can't prepare for. Belfort has hands just as quick as Jones, and it did him no good.

[Stego]

There fighting styles are not similar at all.

They are both lunging counter strikers.

[Ken Stone]

They are both lunging counter strikers.

Machida is the furthest thing from a counter striker. If someone throws a strike at him he backs away, he doesn't catch and swing. Machida uses his feints and footwork to stick and move. Silva is a counter striker, and that's my point. Their fighting styles are more opposite than similar.

[Commodore]

Strikeforce Grand Prix starts this weekend with Fedor vs. Bigfoot and Arlovski vs. Kharitonov

Fedor looks so much smaller than the rest of the field, and Bigfoot looks like a cartoon character.

Overeem doesn't look as imposing as he usually does...

[Stego]

Machida is the furthest thing from a counter striker.

You're clueless.

[Analu]

I'm puzzled at the Machida is not a counterpuncher argument. All his slips and feints and so forth are predicated exactly by his opponent coming forward and punching/kicking. He's timing them and setting them up. That's counterstriking. I'm interested to hear what else it would be called.

I used to think Machida was just a potshotter (which actually served him well though it led to decisions), but then he got more aggressive, which worked fine against Rashad, but not so much against Shogun. Machida's awesome, but he needs to learn the fine line between when to go for the kill and when to slip and bump out, which Anderson seems to have a preternatural instinct for.

Personally, I think Anderson would destroy Rashad. Hendo has way better wrestling creds than Rashad and a thunderous right hand, and we all saw what happened there.

Not to belabor the point, but it's all about distance, which Anderson is a master of. Can Rashad/GSP find the right distance to close in on Silva? To me, that's essential to beating someone like the Spider. Sonnen found it, but Silva claimed he had a rib injury, which I absolutely believe. Nobody has a better feel for distance in the sport than Silva. It's not even close.

[GSP]

Freddy Roach agrees with you Analu. He stated that distance will be the key to the potential gsp/silva superfight.

He has trained both guys and also states that GSP is the stronger of the two and should be able to rough Anderson up on the inside. Interesting. Still not going to bet the house on my boy, but interesting.

[Ken Stone]

I'm puzzled at the Machida is not a counterpuncher argument. All his slips and feints and so forth are predicated exactly by his opponent coming forward and punching/kicking. He's timing them and setting them up. That's counterstriking. I'm interested to hear what else it would be called.

Maybe it is just a difference in terminology. To me counter striking the idea behind counter striking is that the time a fighter is most vulnerable is after he has thrown a strike. In that split second that he makes the attack he is off balance and not defending. Hence a counter striker looks to wait for an opponent to throw a strike, and then ducks or catches the attack while staying in range, and strikes back catching their opponent when they are weakest.

Machida doesn't do this. Machida floats around outside the opponents range throwing faints to knock them off balance. His strategy is to step into range with a flurry of strikes and circle away before the opponent can recover. If an opponent steps in and throws a strike he circles away and resets. In the fight with Rua, Rua used a counter striker strategy against him. Machida stepped in with a flurry of strikes and as he circled away Rua would catch him with a big body kick. In his fight with Tito it was the same thing, except Tito wasn't quick enough to catch him on the way out. When he KO'd Rashad it was on a flurry where Rashad had has mouth open talking shit, not a counter punch to something Rashaad threw.

Compare that to Silva, who almost never throws the first strike in an exchange, unless he gets fed up with his opponent not striking him first.

It's important to note, before you find that one example of Machida employing a counter striking strategy, is that I'm refering to there primary mode of fighting. Sometimes Machida will counter strike, but it isn't his primary strategy. It's very similar to the way we still consider Silva a counter striker, even though the kick that KO'd Belfort wasn't on a counter.

Personally, I think Anderson would destroy Rashad. Hendo has way better wrestling creds than Rashad and a thunderous right hand, and we all saw what happened there.

Who do you think would win a fight between Hendo and Rashad? Rashad is quicker, more explosive, and has better boxing. It's funny that you use the Hendo/Silva fight to show that Rashad would lose to Silva. To me that fight shows that Rashad could beat Silva. Hendo, a fighter who isn't as good as Rashad, was able to take Silva down and maul him for a round. Are we assuming that since Silva caught Hendo that means he would catch Rashad, who is quicker and has better defense and head movement?