Jeyne Westerling

[Elrick]

I'm just curious though what would happen say if Jeyne Westerling turned out to be barren after all of those tonics her mother gave her... Wouldn't that hurt her family in some way? I mean Sybil lost a son, etc so she can't have had a lot of heirs.

[Aegon VI Blackfyre]

1. There is absolutely no reason Sybell would decide to turn against the Lannisters after having conspired with Tywin. She got her reward, and now she risks everything for the minuscule chance that her grandchild might one day rule the North? Jaime is not Tywin, but if he should find out that Sybell betrayed him and hid Jeyne away, she is s good as dead.

This is the main point against the switch theory: absolutely no reason why Sybell should go along and risk everything she just gained.

If that is the main point against the switch, then I'm not ready to abandon the theory. If Jeyne had become pregnant (either by thwarting Sybell or by Sybell double crossing Tywin) then she would not have gained anything. She had one task, and that was to keep Jeyne from getting pregnant. If she has failed in that there would be no castles and marriages. In that case, helping her daughter and unborn grandchild escape doesn't seem so crazy. Sure, the hammer will fall later, but maybe Jeyne survives.

2. The whole switch scenario would only make sense if Jeyne is pregnant. Robb and Jeyne were last time together about 2 weeks before the Red Wedding. It is hard to say how much time passes between major events in the books, but there is ca. 5-6 months between Robb and Jeyne's last meeting and the end of AFFC. This means that unless Jeyne was deliberatly hidden away from the Riverrun household, everybody should have seen that she was pregnant. Someone would tell the Lannisters.

I find this argument more convincing. Still, in the confusion of the takeover, this information could plausibly be delayed long enough to help Jeyne gain a few more miles on her followers. If I understand correctly, the Blackfish (and maybe Jeyne) slip away during the night. Then Edmure waits most of the next day before opening the gates, and the events of the last Jaime chapter happen the next morning after a confused night. Would someone tell the Lannisters soon? Sure, but not necessarily by the end of AFFC.

3. Where did they find another girl in a besieged castle, who does not only look like Jeyne, but is of the same age and can behave like a highborn girl? We don't meet Jeyne's younger sister in the Jaime chapter, but she is only 12 according to the AFFC appendix, and Jaime thinks that the Jeyne he sees is 15-16. That's a 3-4 year difference, easy to spot.

Riverrun is a big castle, and there could certainly be a fair share of high born civilians. If I recall correctly it is mentioned that they made sure they didn't have to feed unnecessary mouthes, but the wives, sisters and daughters of minor lords, knights, stewards and the like has to have been stashed away somewhere. It would certainly take some luck to find a suitable double, but nothing unbelievable.

4. Sybell didn't know about the Red Wedding (she makes this clear to Jaime), but she knew that Robb was destined to die. She says that Tywin promised lords or heirs as husbands for Jeyne and her sister. ("Lords or heirs, he swore to me, not younger sons or household knights.") The only way this promise made sense was if it was clear from the beginning that Jeyne would soon be a widow. I am pretty sure that even Jeyne knew that Robb was to die sooner or later, and that's why she ran after Robb when he left Riverrun for the Twins. (I am sure that Jeyne was told by Sybell to seduce Robb, so she was to some degree involved in the conspiracy from the begining.)

Of course she would have known that Tywin wanted Robb dead. He was a traitor. Was she supposed to have agreed to keep Jeyne from having a child until Robb died from old age? Any deal with Tywin would have been made with an understanding that the Lannisters would somehow win the war within a reasonable amount of time, and that it would result in Robbs death, but not necessarily that they were about to assassinate him. Also she might have made the deal with Tywin thinking she would keep it but changed her mind later.

[morbiczer]

If that is the main point against the switch, then I'm not ready to abandon the theory. If Jeyne had become pregnant (either by thwarting Sybell or by Sybell double crossing Tywin) then she would not have gained anything. She had one task, and that was to keep Jeyne from getting pregnant. If she has failed in that there would be no castles and marriages. In that case, helping her daughter and unborn grandchild escape doesn't seem so crazy. Sure, the hammer will fall later, but maybe Jeyne survives.

Sybell's task was not only to make sure Jeyne didn't get pregnant. Your brother isn't raised to Lord of Castamere simply because you give moon tea to your daughter. (And note that the Westerlings get their royal pardon and Rolph Spicer his castle and lordship well before the Lannisters can make sure Jeyne is not pregnant.)

The entire conspiracy started well before Robb took the Crag. Sybell's job was to make sure Robb married Jaime, because Tywin thought that this would turn the Freys against him. Making sure she didn't get pregnant was only the icing on the cake. So even if Jeyne would have become accidentaly pregnant, Sybell would have fulfilled her main task.

And by the way, if Sybell knew how to brew moon tea to keep Jeyne from getting pregnant, it is safe to assume that she also knew how to use tansy for an abortion in case the moon tea failed to work.

[dcon]

Considering the Westerlings get gifts from the Lannisters, including marriage into the Lannister Family and Castamere, yes, I'm afraid it's very visible.

I had assumed that was to get them back into the Lannister fold, though they are pretty lavish. It makes sense, although is that the only indication we have that they may have participated?

edit: I suppose grey wind freaking out about one of the westerlings is another indication.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

The entire conspiracy started well before Robb took the Crag.

I see this put forth as fact all the time but I have a hard time believing it. For this to be the case, Tywin would have had to predict that Robb would find a goat path around the Golden Tooth that nobody knew about and that once in the Westerlands Robb would assault the Crag. Unless Tywin could see the future or control Robb's mind, these events were impossible to predict. In fact, it comes as a great shock to the Lannisters when this occurs.

Sybell's job was to make sure Robb married Jaime, because Tywin thought that this would turn the Freys against him.

Through this marriage they could have united the houses of Lannister & Stark AND supplanted Renly & Loras as the preeminent gay couple in Westeros! :P

Seriously though, the whole situation reads to me more like Sybell decided that once the Starks had forcibly occupied her home the best thing to do would be to play both sides. So, she tries to get Jeyne and Robb to hook up and probably gets a message to Tywin as soon as possible to let him know what she is doing. This way, no matter who wins the war she can claim that the Westerlings were on their side the whole time. Again, there is absolutely know way Tywin could have planned for Robb to bypass the Golden Tooth, assault the Crag, and get injured during the assault.

Making sure she didn't get pregnant was only the icing on the cake. So even if Jeyne would have become accidentaly pregnant, Sybell would have fulfilled her main task.

I disagree. Sybell promised to make sure Jeyne didn't get pregnant because that is very important. It's the same reason Robert wants Dany & Viserys dead, it is a really bad idea to leave rival claimants to the throne running around. Everyone knows how important Jeyne becoming pregnant with Robb's heir is and Tywin would be very invested in making sure this didn't happen. Since it wasn't possible for Tywin to orchestrate Robb's marriage, I'd say preventing a pregnancy was indeed Sybell's main task.

And by the way, if Sybell knew how to brew moon tea to keep Jeyne from getting pregnant, it is safe to assume that she also knew how to use tansy for an abortion in case the moon tea failed to work.

I agree that this is safe to assume. What I don't think is safe to assume is that if Jeyne got pregnant despite Sybell's best efforts that she would then abort the pregnancy against Jeyne's will. In my mind, there is a world of difference between forced contraception and forced abortion. In fact, I think one of the few motivations for Sybell to engage in a Jeyne switch (if there indeed was a switch) is that Jeyne somehow became pregnant and that Sybell had a things I do for love moment and decided that she would risk everything to try to save her daughter and her unborn grandchild.

[Elrick]

Sybell's task was not only to make sure Jeyne didn't get pregnant. Your brother isn't raised to Lord of Castamere simply because you give moon tea to your daughter. (And note that the Westerlings get their royal pardon and Rolph Spicer his castle and lordship well before the Lannisters can make sure Jeyne is not pregnant.)

The entire conspiracy started well before Robb took the Crag. Sybell's job was to make sure Robb married Jaime, because Tywin thought that this would turn the Freys against him. Making sure she didn't get pregnant was only the icing on the cake. So even if Jeyne would have become accidentaly pregnant, Sybell would have fulfilled her main task.

And by the way, if Sybell knew how to brew moon tea to keep Jeyne from getting pregnant, it is safe to assume that she also knew how to use tansy for an abortion in case the moon tea failed to work.

Hmm I wonder if anyone like Uncat or brotherhood without banners will ever find out the truth about this conspiracy. Who knows really though.

[mcbigski]

The discrepency between Jaime and Catelyn's description is just proof that Cersei has a lot of junk in the trunk and Jamie likes back.

[Aegon VI Blackfyre]

edit: I suppose grey wind freaking out about one of the westerlings is another indication.

It is certainly an indication, but the direwolves were freaking out about Tyrion as well after he passed by Winterfell when returning from the Wall, and he hadn't actually done anything, so the wolves aren't 100% failsafe schemer detectors. Sybell dealing with Tywin could be enough to make it wary, even if she didn't plan to keep her promises.

[Valmy]

Other arguments against a switch:

Since we are not having a strategic discussion I find these unconvincing. Just because it may be a bad idea does not mean it did not happen.

I am going solely by textual evidence for my suspicion. GRRM tends to work with subtle clues while distracting you with bigger events. That is his style and that fits the idea that Jeyne was switched so I think she was. If for some reason you want to convince me otherwise you have to convince me he presented this subtle clue for some other reason than to indicate these are different girls.

I do not buy it was just a mistake at all.

[dcon]

It is certainly an indication, but the direwolves were freaking out about Tyrion as well after he passed by Winterfell when returning from the Wall, and he hadn't actually done anything, so the wolves aren't 100% failsafe schemer detectors. Sybell dealing with Tywin could be enough to make it wary, even if she didn't plan to keep her promises.

This is true.

It really had not crossed my mind that the westerlings were in on it from the beginning. I just assumed they jumped back on the lannister bandwagon once things started to go bad for Robb

[morbiczer]

If for some reason you want to convince me otherwise you have to convince me he presented this subtle clue for some other reason than to indicate these are different girls.

Why would I want to convince you or anybody else about anything?

I am just saying what I think, that if it turns out that Sybell switching out Jeyne does nt make any sense at all.

[The King's Foot]

As was posted a few above here, there is no way Tywin planned the seduction (due to the manner of how Robb ends up at the Crag, injured, needing some convalesence time), unless you want to believe he contacted every Lady in the west and said "Hey, just in case Robb Stark comes your way, be sure to throw your daughters at him".

So, that leaves the following conclusion: Sybell Spicer is one hell of an opportunistic gal. Which is also supported in the text descriptions of her and her family - very conniving and ambitious. Undoubtedly, what happened is she saw a golden opporunity to advance her family and took it. To anyone living in the West, it was probably a no-brainer that eventually Tywin Lannister would prevail over this punk kid from the North. No question, all of Tywin's life has been an uncompromising message of "He gets what he wants".

She threw Jeyne at Robb, maybe got them a bit drunk, who knows (we don't have any evidence of Jeyne's complicity really, so let's assume she wasn't "in" on Mom's plan) then forced the marriage (maybe catching them in the act, making a big scene, etc etc). She then crowed Tywin asap, basically saying "look what I did for you, I can make sure she never delivers a baby, what's in it for me to do that?". Tywin then offers the lords/heirs/castamere etc.

So to me that's it for Sybell's role in the RW. She set the events in motion to curry favor with Tywin, who then took the ball and ran with it by convincing the Freys to pull it off.

Given all that we therefore know about Sybell, here's the big "what if" - What if the potions don't work on Jeyne? Evidence that she's preggers probably start to show right around the time Tywin croaks. So, our super-ambitious, very clever Sybell decides to keep her options open. If Tywin's alive the girl gets the tansy tea. He's dead, and suddenly Sybell is very nervous about the promises that were made, and what is going to happen to the West now that Tywin's effed up kids and brothers are in charge.

She's not cold enough to kill her daughter, and can't return to the West with a pregnant Jeyne in tow, so she switches the girls, sending Jeyne off with the Blackfish.

Maybe flimsy, but Sybell has already shown herself to be quite able to think on her feet and seize opportunity.

[Valmy]

Why would I want to convince you or anybody else about anything?

I am just saying what I think, that if it turns out that Sybell switching out Jeyne does nt make any sense at all.

Sorry when you said these were the arguments for accepting your point of view I thought you were making arguments for it.

It makes no sense why Cersei would not just suck it up and have Roberts kids because they would enable House Lannister to win unopposed. But she risks everything because she hates Robert so much. Likewise maybe Sybell is doing it because despite everything she does care for her daughter...or something. It is not like anybody outside of Stark loyalists or the Westerling family and retainers have ever seen Jeyne in person.

[Noroldis]

Count me in among those who believe the hips discrepancy is an unintentional mistake on GRRM's part, like the color of Renly's eyes. And as others have mentioned, with Robb dead and the North in disarray, Sybell and the Westerlings have nothing to gain and everything to lose by switching Jeyne for another girl. IMO if Jeyne had somehow gotten pregnant despite the moon tea, Sybell would have forced larger doses on her until Jeyne had an abortion.

[Desch]

Count me in among those who believe the hips discrepancy is an unintentional mistake on GRRM's part, like the color of Renly's eyes. And as others have mentioned, with Robb dead and the North in disarray, Sybell and the Westerlings have nothing to gain and everything to lose by switching Jeyne for another girl. IMO if Jeyne had somehow gotten pregnant despite the moon tea, Sybell would have forced larger doses on her until Jeyne had an abortion.

We don't know how the abortion drink works. Maybe if a certain time has passed, it is not possible to abort without harming, or endangering the mother. And as we see, she cares about her family, that means she should care even more about her daughter. We are not in 21st century medical treatment, where abortion is as easy as getting knocked up <_< .

If Jeyne is pregnant, it changes everything in perspective to Jeyne without baby.

[Elrick]

Count me in among those who believe the hips discrepancy is an unintentional mistake on GRRM's part, like the color of Renly's eyes. And as others have mentioned, with Robb dead and the North in disarray, Sybell and the Westerlings have nothing to gain and everything to lose by switching Jeyne for another girl. IMO if Jeyne had somehow gotten pregnant despite the moon tea, Sybell would have forced larger doses on her until Jeyne had an abortion.

I think maybe Catelyn was fooling herself in hoping that Jeyne could be fertile. BTW its obvious that hips have nothing to do with fertility and that this is an old wives tale. Also Sybell's just as doomed as the Frey's with Tywin gone and the Lannisters surely doomed. She might as well be a walking corpse at this point.

[Capt'n Asha]

I don't think there's anything random about the Westerlings, even more after repeating so many time The Rains of Castamere all through the book. There's some point in the book, (I think earlier than the Rob&Jeyne encounter, but can't be sure) when Lord Tywin states that some wars are won with letters rather than with swords. Hence, I think he is the mind behind everything since the very beginning. This leaves only two possible scenarios for me:

-Either Sybell writes to him when the castle is taken to tell about the situation and he straightly asks her to put her daughter into Rob's bed (we all know that, after such a thing, a Stark would ask for marriage and, hence, offend the Freys)

-or -and that's my bet- Lord Tywin purposefully drives the battle in the correct direction so that Rob is forced to take the Crag (Rob also directed a battle to suit his purposes and good strategists did that all the time, from Julius Caesar to Alexander or Napoleon. Just think of the Termopilae or BoaDicea battle at London hills. Chess is pretty much about figuring out how to force your opponent to move into a position you control, not about mind reading or wild guessing) and had told Sybell in advance what to do when Rob took shelter in the castle. I don't think that some Lannisters' servants -much less the Westerlings- would dare to be friendly to their lord's enemy unless the war was completely won.

In this case, the proper order would be: i) ask the Westerlings to put their girl in bed with Rob when he takes shelter in their property; ii) move your armies so that battles are fought in the proper places and Rob gets the hint to take shelter on the Crag -him being hurt was nothing but a plus-; iii) get the kids married and tell cranky Lord Frey; iv) propose a Frey alliance and betray your guests (no memory of the Rat Cook by the Trident, one would say); and v) prevent Rob from having a son before his early demise. All this sounds very much like a Tywin's plan and I think the old guy is a ruthless thinker.

As was posted a few above here, there is no way Tywin planned the seduction (due to the manner of how Robb ends up at the Crag, injured, needing some convalesence time), unless you want to believe he contacted every Lady in the west and said "Hey, just in case Robb Stark comes your way, be sure to throw your daughters at him".

So, that leaves the following conclusion: Sybell Spicer is one hell of an opportunistic gal. Which is also supported in the text descriptions of her and her family - very conniving and ambitious. Undoubtedly, what happened is she saw a golden opporunity to advance her family and took it. To anyone living in the West, it was probably a no-brainer that eventually Tywin Lannister would prevail over this punk kid from the North. No question, all of Tywin's life has been an uncompromising message of "He gets what he wants".

She threw Jeyne at Robb, maybe got them a bit drunk, who knows (we don't have any evidence of Jeyne's complicity really, so let's assume she wasn't "in" on Mom's plan) then forced the marriage (maybe catching them in the act, making a big scene, etc etc). She then crowed Tywin asap, basically saying "look what I did for you, I can make sure she never delivers a baby, what's in it for me to do that?". Tywin then offers the lords/heirs/castamere etc.

So to me that's it for Sybell's role in the RW. She set the events in motion to curry favor with Tywin, who then took the ball and ran with it by convincing the Freys to pull it off.

Given all that we therefore know about Sybell, here's the big "what if" - What if the potions don't work on Jeyne? Evidence that she's preggers probably start to show right around the time Tywin croaks. So, our super-ambitious, very clever Sybell decides to keep her options open. If Tywin's alive the girl gets the tansy tea. He's dead, and suddenly Sybell is very nervous about the promises that were made, and what is going to happen to the West now that Tywin's effed up kids and brothers are in charge.

She's not cold enough to kill her daughter, and can't return to the West with a pregnant Jeyne in tow, so she switches the girls, sending Jeyne off with the Blackfish.

Maybe flimsy, but Sybell has already shown herself to be quite able to think on her feet and seize opportunity.

[Lord Godric]

This leaves only two possible scenarios for me:

Hmm...I'm not sure either of these scenarios seems likely. For a few reasons.

-Either Sybell writes to him when the castle is taken to tell about the situation and he straightly asks her to put her daughter into Rob's bed (we all know that, after such a thing, a Stark would ask for marriage and, hence, offend the Freys)

This would require things to happen very quickly. Robb was wounded while storming the castle and Jeyne began nursing him back to health. Unless Sybell could guess that Tywin would want, the fact that Jeyne was the one to begin nursing Robb was only a coincidence that would later work into Tywin's plans. And even if Sybell had the time to write to Tywin before Robb got the news of Bran and Rickon's "death" there was no way they could ensure that Robb would sleep with her and then demand they marry the very next day. That would take a ridiculous amount of luck on Tywin's part predicting correctly every move on Robb's part, something he had never been able to do before.

-or -and that's my bet- Lord Tywin purposefully drives the battle in the correct direction so that Rob is forced to take the Crag (Rob also directed a battle to suit his purposes and good strategists did that all the time, from Julius Caesar to Alexander or Napoleon. Just think of the Termopilae or BoaDicea battle at London hills. Chess is pretty much about figuring out how to force your opponent to move into a position you control, not about mind reading or wild guessing) and had told Sybell in advance what to do when Rob took shelter in the castle. I don't think that some Lannisters' servants -much less the Westerlings- would dare to be friendly to their lord's enemy unless the war was completely won.

Again, this doesn't seem accurate because no one knew that Grey Wind would find this goat path that would allow Robb to go around the Goldentooth and bring his forces to the Crag. Also we have Robb's word that Tywin apparently never knew Robb was in the Westerlands lying in wait to trap his army until one of his vassals was able to notify him. That was when Tywin decided to abandoned his attempt to cross the Trident and headed towards King's Landing.

In this case, the proper order would be: i) ask the Westerlings to put their girl in bed with Rob when he takes shelter in their property; ii) move your armies so that battles are fought in the proper places and Rob gets the hint to take shelter on the Crag -him being hurt was nothing but a plus-; iii) get the kids married and tell cranky Lord Frey; iv) propose a Frey alliance and betray your guests (no memory of the Rat Cook by the Trident, one would say); and v) prevent Rob from having a son before his early demise. All this sounds very much like a Tywin's plan and I think the old guy is a ruthless thinker.

Again, that requires an awful lot of luck on Tywin's part. It seems much more likely that Sybell was communicating with Tywin and his plans were formed around what happened. When Robb arrived at the Crag, took an injury, was healed by Jeyne, and then married her, that is more than likely when Tywin started formulating a plan. He saw the insult to the Frey's, was able to bribe Roose Bolton, and the plan then took shape.

The only problem I see with any scenario in which Sybell and Tywin were communicating is how were they able to keep in contact during the Westerling's stay at Riverrun. Sending and receiving ravens would not be so easy while at Riverrun.

[morbiczer]

I see this put forth as fact all the time but I have a hard time believing it. For this to be the case, Tywin would have had to predict that Robb would find a goat path around the Golden Tooth that nobody knew about and that once in the Westerlands Robb would assault the Crag. Unless Tywin could see the future or control Robb's mind, these events were impossible to predict. In fact, it comes as a great shock to the Lannisters when this occurs.

I should have fomrulated my post a little more carefully. It is certainly not a fact that the consiparcy started before the fall of the Crag, but it is what I think.

As I said, I don't think Tywin - who we know loves nothing more than to punish bannermen who turns against him - doesn't hand out lordships, castles and good marriages as a reward for betrayal. If there was no agreement between Sybell and Tywin before the fall of the Crag, then all Sybell did was feed Jeyne moon tea - after her family joined a rebellion against king and lord. A simple pardon would have been reward enough for that given what we know how Tywin deals with rebellious bannermen.

And no, it wouldn't have started before the Golden Tooth, but after, when Robb and Co. were capturing one castle after the other in the Westerlands. We don't know much about the geography, maybe it was pretty clear that they sooner or later would turn up at the Crag, especially if the rumour was put out that it was lightly defended.

We know Sybell negotiated with Tywin ("lords and heirs, he swore"), and it is unlikely that Sybell had chances to communicate with the enemy in secret once her castle had fallen.

Unless Tywin could see the future or control Robb's mind, these events were impossible to predict. In fact, it comes as a great shock to the Lannisters when this occurs.

It comes as a great shock to Tyrion, who clearly thinks that the Westerlings went crazy. At the same time he is very surprised that Tywin doesn't seem bothered. Tywin is clearly not in shock when he tells Tyrion about Robb's and Jeyne's marriage.

And yes, it would have been hard to predict that Robb would actually marry Jeyne, and I don't think all this is the best example of GRRM's writing. But this is not the only time in the series when things fall together just as GRRM wants to advance the story.

[morbiczer]

Also we have Robb's word that Tywin apparently never knew Robb was in the Westerlands lying in wait to trap his army until one of his vassals was able to notify him. That was when Tywin decided to abandoned his attempt to cross the Trident and headed towards King's Landing.

Tywin knew very well that Robb and his army were running around unnopposed in the Westerlands after the Golden Tooth. This is the reason why he left Harrenhal and wanted to cross the Red Fork to march west. He stopped trying to cross the river when he heard that Renly had died, Stannis had taken over (part of) his army and was marching on King's Landing.