Varys has brought Shae to Tywin via the secret passageways!

[AvengingAryaFan]

I may have misremembered exactly what Tyrion said to Shae - a review of the scene would reveal whether a clever, skeptical listener could likely have deduced the truth from Tyrion's Tysha story.

But even if the truth wasn't readily deduced, how is Varys, of all people, not capable of tracking down the truth? How is he going to pass up this opportunity for leverage - a story that obviously carries extraordinary emotional weight with Tyrion - if he is constantly angling to have a lever to manipulate Tyrion, as HE says explains his interest in Shae?

HE, I've set forth perfectly good circumstantial evidence that Varys would want to, and could have, set up Jaime to drop that bomb on Tyrion.

That's a possibility that would render versions of your theory incorporating it less reliant on chance/coincidence.

Moreover, you've postulated more subtle machinations by Varys for less significant aspects of your theory (slipping Shae's blindfold, lighting the particular brazier, Shae wearing the Hand's cloak, etc.).

Given all that, why in the world are you relying exclusively on blind coincidence for Jaime telling Tyrion a story that couldn't be better designed to put Tyrion into a murderous rage against Tywin, just at the exact moment when Varys strongly desires Tyrion to be in a murderous rage against Tywin???

You may have stared at your theory so long you can no longer look at it fresh, or see anything that isn't already in your mental model. I guess it's nothing to me (shrugs wryly).

[Nukelavee]

Damnit.

I has a present for the EnT!

Much as I don't like how complicated your theory is, Ent...

When Tywin refuses Tyrion Casterly Rock, in Tyrion's first real chapter in SoS, he also says... "the next whore I find in your bed, I hang"

Doesn't fit with what ended up happening, does it?

[Happy Ent]

HE, I've set forth perfectly good circumstantial evidence that Varys would want to, and could have, set up Jaime to drop that bomb on Tyrion.

Oh, and you’ve done so lucidly and clearly. Reading your and Datepalm’s ideas I become increasingly convinced that Varys even knew about the Tysha story (and indeed the full version, the one unknown even to Tyrion). It‘s very cool, thanks for taking the time to give such a detailed account of it.

To me, it just doesn’t make the underlying Varys-planted-Shae theory any less or more likely. Much like the debate about whether the guards did or did not see Shae being brought into the room.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Thanks for the acknowledgment.

I guess you're right that it doesn't affect the likelihood that Varys planted Shae; on the one hand it would seem to make it less necessary, and on the other hand it makes it more probable that Varys could manipulate Tyrion into wanting to kill Tywin enough to at least go up to the room, where she would predictably fuel his rage (not to mention feel his rage).

It sort of reduces planting Shae to sort of belt-and-suspenders backup or reinforcement.

But it enhances the plausibility of your overall theory that the parricide was plotted with great care by Varys. That Shae was planted would be a sign that he was really covering all the bases.

A backup plan, in case Jaime got cold feet about the revelation and Varys had to (less effectively) tell Tyrion that truth, in which case more motivation might well be needed.

[Datepalm]

I think Varys planted Shae is essential to the theory, and I think Varys knowing about Tysha (in some version, dosen't really matter which) is essential. The combination of factors lets Varys set up a situation that is...psychologically predictable. Failing that its too up in the air.

Also, that Varys was in support of the Tyrion breakout and the Tywin murder is not a theory, its pure canonical fact. He absoloutely could have not cooperated with Jaime, and he could have prevented Tyrion from getting anywhere near Tywin, this is all trivial. For whatever reasons - short or long term political, immediate whim, personal sympathy - Varys is on Tyrions side in this instance. The theory is in how much was planned ahead, and how much he actively had to manipulate the situation, so it falls apart a bit in terms of being at all conspiratorial if Varys didn't at a minimum plant Shae and/or poison Tywin.

[Dragonfish]

I appreciate your efforts to educate me, but I wasn't presenting questions as to what "apparently" happened. I've read the books, and I'm aware that everything seemed ... sort of reasonable when it happened. What I'm saying is that "sort of reasonable" is "sort of unreasonable" (like "mostly dead" means "partly alive").

I wasn't trying to educate you, I was trying to provide context for the argument. And my point was that Jaime telling Tyrion was perfectly reasonable in context, not "sort of reasonable."

We are allowed to see that Varys is near when Tyrion tells Shae his version of the Tysha tale. We see that Jaime is now, after 16(?) years, admitting this fact that he has never before been inclined to admit, a truth so awful it scares even him. But Jaime hasn't been motivated to think about and pay that debt for 16(?) years - why now?

I've already addressed this: Tyrion badgered Jaime into telling him, IIRC (again, I don't have the book handy so I can't directly quote). Also, Jaime didn't know if he'd ever see his brother again, so this may have been the last chance he had to tell him. This is a perfectly reasonable explanation. The situation does not suggest that there must have been some sort of manipulation going on.

So Varys arranged for somebody (possibly himself) to plant the idea in Jaime's mind of what a debt he owes to Tyrion in view of that appalling lie, and how springing him would be a good repayment, and (at some point, possibly later) oh by the way he'd feel so much better just getting the lie off his conscience by telling Tyrion the truth.

Ok, so your explanation for why Jaime revealed the info when he did is that he got it in his head that he had a debt toward Tyrion, and the reason he got it in his head is that Varys planted it there? Well, that means you and I fundamentally agree that Jaime told Tyrion when he did because he got an idea in his head, but we disagree about how that idea got in his head. I for one think it's pretty clear that the Tysha incident has haunted Jaime for quite some time, and that he already thought he owed Tyrion a debt even before he arrived in King's Landing. In other words, Jaime got it in his head that he owed a debt to Tyrion, not because Varys planted it there, but because Jaime thought of it on his own. Again, this situation doesn't require Varys' manipulation in order to make sense.

We have no reason to suspect that Varys - Varys! - knows the details of an extremely juicy story regarding one of the most important people in KL (for purposes of his goals)?

Yes, we have no reason to think that Varys knows. The only other people who know about the truth for sure are Tywin and Jaime, and we've no reason to suspect that they told anyone. Varys doesn't know everything, folks.

Lucky coincidence that Jaime felt sufficiently indebted to Tyrion for some unknown reason to treasonously spring him, after deciding to act honorably henceforth? Not very likely, is it?

If you're theory rests on someone known as "Kingslayer" and "Oathbreaker" being incapable of doing something dishonorable, then you're on shaky ground.

Sure, Jaime had at that point resolved to be more honorable, but that doesn't mean he would always succeed when necessity and/or the safety of the people he loves require otherwise. Remember, in AFFC Jaime resigns himself to the idea that he will have to take up arms against the Tullys after all, in violation of his oath to Catelyn. Did he decide to do that because Varys manipulated him? No, he decided to do that because circumstances forced him to. Similarly, Jaime decided to free Tyrion because the man is his brother, he loves him, and he owes him a "debt." It's not as if Jaime is incapable of doing dishonorable things unless Varys pushes him to do so, which is essentially what you're arguing here.

And just on general principles, assuming coincidence in a Martin book probably means you're missing something.

Ok, then you must believe that Catelyn and Tyrion met each other on the road because they were manipulated into doing so, right? And you must also believe that Arya and the Hound met those Lannister men at the inn because someone manipulated them into doing that as well, right? After all, if you're assuming coincidence, then you must be missing something (thanks for the education, by the way).

Coincidences happen all the time in these books, and they usually occur for the purposes of dramatic expediency. And when Jaime's confession to Tyrion is compared to all the other coincidences in the book, it actually isn't that much of a coincidence. Jaime frees Tyrion because otherwise he will die, and he confesses to Tyrion because this might be the last chance he gets to tell Tyrion the truth that has been weighing him down. No manipulation is required to make sense of this.

...But resolving those minor logistics issues is well within Varys's ability.

This touches on my biggest problem with the whole theory: it posits that Varys can see into people's heads and know exactly what to do in order to make them do what he wants. Varys hatches this scheme because he knows that Tyrion isn't yet in the right state of mind yet to side with Dany, and the success of his plan hinges on him knowing that the Tysha story is not the whole truth and that Jaime will reveal the truth to Tyrion at just the right time. I don't see how this plan isn't convoluted, or at the very least unlikely.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Ok, then you must believe that Catelyn and Tyrion met each other on the road because they were manipulated into doing so, right? And you must also believe that Arya and the Hound met those Lannister men at the inn because someone manipulated them into doing that as well, right? After all, if you're assuming coincidence, then you must be missing something (thanks for the education, by the way).

Coincidences happen all the time in these books, and they usually occur for the purposes of dramatic expediency. And when Jaime's confession to Tyrion is compared to all the other coincidences in the book, it actually isn't that much of a coincidence. Jaime frees Tyrion because otherwise he will die, and he confesses to Tyrion because this might be the last chance he gets to tell Tyrion the truth that has been weighing him down. No manipulation is required to make sense of this.

Please note I didn't say "must be missing something" but "are probably missing something." I grant your rebuttal addresses even my less absolute form, but you overstate my ... overstatement.

Granted, numerous things happen more or less at random, as you said, and they are selected by Martin to affect the plot and/or character(s). Chance meetings at an inn are classic in this respect. Bran climbing so as to hear Jaime and Cersei is in this category - crucial to the narrative, and the only motivation Martin seemed to provide was establishing that Bran is very fond of climbing.

In view of your point, I don't know quite how to say when I - and some others - believe you should be suspicious. Perhaps it's when a situation creates a windfall for one or more people, plus some curious things happen that could be coincidence or could have been manipulated, or when coincidences pile up. If you're disinclined to see conspiracies or manipulation, Martin usually provides at least a superficial explanation for whatever happens. For example, Robb getting lightly wounded attacking the Crag is perfectly reasonable by itself, and the Crag surrendering is perfectly reasonable, but the sudden surrender immediately after he was wounded is odd. Given that the situation eventually leads to an extremely important windfall for the Lannisters, I'm quite suspicious, and start looking for other "coincidences" (for example, Black Walder is first over the Crag's wall; the castellan Rolph Spicer gets a huge reward for doing nothing but losing a castle and defecting to the other side; Grey Wind is extremely hostile to Rolph Spicer and Black Walder; etc.) All of these can be understood as minor, coincidental matters, but they pile up.

Similarly here. Cheerful Ent has already made a pretty strong case that Tyrion killing Tywin seems to have been something he desired and in fact planned carefully to cause to happen. I'm merely building on that conspiracy. If HE is correct then Varys is extremely interested in manipulating Tyrion for his own purposes. Consequently, something that seemingly just "happens" at a highly serendipitous moment to strongly manipulate Tyrion's emotions in just the way Varys wants, given that Varys had the opportunity and the ability to actively encourage it to happen, makes me extremely suspicious.

You, not so much. That's fine. I didn't bother to quote all the points on which we disagree, as those are apparently unlikely to change. With Martin's writing I'm sort of paranoid: it takes very few odd or surprising coincidences leading up to an important event to make me suspicious that there is more going on than meets the eye. I fully understand the attitude that Martin has a book to write and needs things to happen, so he can just make it happen by coincidence (authorial fiat): move along, nothing to see here. I don't think he does it as often as you think he does, and I don't think your credulity is as much fun as being suspicious, but I realize that you think I'm just, well, too paranoid. Fair enough.

[Dragonfish]

Please note I didn't say "must be missing something" but "are probably missing something." I grant your rebuttal addresses even my less absolute form, but you overstate my ... overstatement.

Fair enough, that was a bit of an exaggeration on my part. In my defense, though, you have claimed or implied at various points that the only reasonable explanation for Jaime's confession is that he was manipulated by Varys. I was just trying to point out why that wasn't true. I guess my impression that your overall argument was absolute also led me to think, incorrectly, that your point about coincidences was also absolute. So apologies for that.

Similarly here. Cheerful Ent has already made a pretty strong case that Tyrion killing Tywin seems to have been something he desired and in fact planned carefully to cause to happen. I'm merely building on that conspiracy. If HE is correct then Varys is extremely interested in manipulating Tyrion for his own purposes. Consequently, something that seemingly just "happens" at a highly serendipitous moment to strongly manipulate Tyrion's emotions in just the way Varys wants, given that Varys had the opportunity and the ability to actively encourage it to happen, makes me extremely suspicious.

It seems to me that you're sneaking in your conclusion here. In other words, you seem to be saying, "Varys probably planned for Tyrion to kill Tywin, therefore Jaime's confession, which is what motivated Tyrion to go to the Hand's room, may have been part of Varys' plan." But in order to accept that rationale, I would have to concede the entire argument that Varys planned for Tyrion to kill Tywin, and I'm obviously not willing to do that.

The fact that the entire plan relies on Jaime's confession to Tyrion is part of what makes the whole thing unlikely. You have clearly recognized this, which is why you're trying to incorporate the confession into Varys' plans. But your effort at incorporating the confession relies on Varys seeing into people's heads and knowing exactly how they'll behave. That just makes the whole thing even more unlikely. So really, whether you incorporate or not Jaime's confession into Varys' plans, the whole exercise just seems unlikely to me.

You, not so much. That's fine. I didn't bother to quote all the points on which we disagree, as those are apparently unlikely to change. With Martin's writing I'm sort of paranoid: it takes very few odd or surprising coincidences leading up to an important event to make me suspicious that there is more going on than meets the eye. I fully understand the attitude that Martin has a book to write and needs things to happen, so he can just make it happen by coincidence (authorial fiat): move along, nothing to see here. I don't think he does it as often as you think he does, and I don't think your credulity is as much fun as being suspicious, but I realize that you think I'm just, well, too paranoid. Fair enough.

Yes, I've pretty much said all I have to say now, so let's just agree to disagree.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Also, that Varys was in support of the Tyrion breakout and the Tywin murder is not a theory, its pure canonical fact. He absoloutely could have not cooperated with Jaime, and he could have prevented Tyrion from getting anywhere near Tywin, this is all trivial. For whatever reasons - short or long term political, immediate whim, personal sympathy - Varys is on Tyrions side in this instance. The theory is in how much was planned ahead, and how much he actively had to manipulate the situation, so it falls apart a bit in terms of being at all conspiratorial if Varys didn't at a minimum plant Shae and/or poison Tywin.

Repeating this as a final rejoinder to Dragonfish.

You don't have to buy that Varys actively schemed to get Tyrion to commit patricide, Tywin dead, and Tyrion free, but you're already halfway there because you can't really doubt Varys is an active participant in shepherding the realm wherever it is he wants it to go, and you can't really doubt that he consciously allowed those specific events Datepalm pointed out to transpire. If Varys was entirely willing to permit those drastic events to occur, it's difficult to doubt that he was in favor of them. For a resourceful, active actor like Varys to be in favor of events of great consequence, but to NOT take active steps to ensure they transpire, is contrary to his demonstrated effectiveness.

Thus, if you're fair you can't even argue that Varys didn't actively promote the events that he clearly allowed. You can argue that he probably didn't engage in the specific preparations that HE, Datepalm and I have suggested, things for which he had opportunity and motivation, but that's about as skeptical as logic permits.

[Dragonfish]

Thus, if you're fair you can't even argue that Varys didn't actively promote the events that he clearly allowed. You can argue that he probably didn't engage in the specific preparations that HE, Datepalm and I have suggested, things for which he had opportunity and motivation, but that's about as skeptical as logic permits.

If I can argue that he probably didn't engage in the specific preparations that HE, Datepalm, and you have suggested, then isn't that the same as arguing that he didn't actively promote the events that he clearly allowed? Or do you mean something else when you say that Varys actively promoted the outcome?

[Datepalm]

If I can argue that he probably didn't engage in the specific preparations that HE, Datepalm, and you have suggested, then isn't that the same as arguing that he didn't actively promote the events that he clearly allowed? Or do you mean something else when you say that Varys actively promoted the outcome?

The point is, I think, that Varys' desires are not in question: he wants Tyrion free, he wants a confrontation between Tywin and Tyrion (probably so Tywin ends up dead, this however isn't fact.) The argument therefore goes, since Varys want's these things, it extremely unlikely that they have evolved entirely over the course of a single evening, so it is likely Varys was in fact planning for them, since Varys is a long term type.

(although, I think its possible to have many of the sore thumbs - Shae, the poison, the furniture - explained away with spontaneous action by Varys between Jaime cornering him and freeing Tyrion too, if you're into that sort of thing.)

[lexxxy52]

I was always under the impression that Tywin had been the hand that had the whores passage created in the first place. I think people over estimate the schemers in asoif, Tywin loved his whores plain and simple and he took Shae through the secret passage so people didn't know he was up too.

[Sega AM2]

I was always under the impression that Tywin had been the hand that had the whores passage created in the first place. I think people over estimate the schemers in asoif, Tywin loved his whores plain and simple and he took Shae through the secret passage so people didn't know he was up too.

I just reread the chapter where Varys tells Tyrion that a previous Hand was using this brothel in secret so that his use of whores wouldn't become public and dishonor him. Who else would Varys be referring to?

Tyrion expresses his surprise that a brothel would have a secret passage, and Varys replies that it was made for another Hand of the King whose honor would not allow him to enter a brothel openly.

Looking the at the timeline for Hands of the King it unquestionably has to be Tywin who was using that brothel.

[Nukelavee]

This is one of those topics that is totally unprovable, until GRRM proves it.

It relies on connecting so many dots, and the more dots you notice, the easier it is to form whatever picture you want it to form.

It also ignores that "writer as gardener" comment I've seen attributed to GRRM, which was an explanation, in part, to why it takes him so long to write these books; in that he isn't certain of the specifics of teh story at all times, that certain things occur to him, and he revises based upon that.

Certainly, things don't usually happen without reasons in this story, but i wonder how many details that now clearly indicate certain events, had those specific outcomes added after Martin realized the options he had.

Now, part of the issue I have with Ent's overall theory, as I've said, is it's SO complicated, and goes back SO far, that the sheer number of things that have to go right for it to work as stated, seems so unlikely. (And I say this aware that I have been finding bits and peices to support Ent's idea's, too. damnit.) Central to this, is the superhuman qualities Varys is starting to collect in people's minds. Spymaster, the stuff from the preview chapters, actor..even mage; Varys is the next Hannibal character, a veritable Swiss Army knife of a man.

Personally, it strikes me now that, because we know Varys wants the Targs back, everything that seems to connect to Dany's return must be planned by Varys, it's all intentially part of a long term master plan. Which ignores Littlefinger, and his plans, and how he doesn't seem to be working with Varys at all.

As I've said before, I can accept that Varys set Tywin up for Tyrion, I just don't accept the long timeline/sequence of events Ent gives us. On the other hand, I totally can see Varys improvising things once Tyrion is in the cells to salvage his master goal, and going from there.

I also accept that, sure, GRRM could later tell us that Ent had it perfectly, but, honestly, if it was a set up, I think we'll discover it was a far simpler and more desperate plan than Ent's.

BTW - 300 years of Hands, and people are certain the tunnel is, what, 30 years old?

[Night's Scotch]

Now we are discussing the effects of a fictional poison! I promised myself to be strong this time!

But then, men ever make follies out of their principles when they stand on the precipice of desire. For what is discourse, if not the violation of another mind's protections? Only after the silken shift is rent, and the last cry has become a whimper, can the sound of wisdom be heard again. Only when it is too late. — Mogawemba, Third Argument

Speculation: Widow's Blood stops working at the time of death. The effect is to make it physically impossible to release (by cramping the necessary muscles) while making it psychologically impossible to leave the toilet because release seems imminent. Any. Second. Now.

As I've said, I have experienced very similar effects after something mundane as binge drinking. (Cheap fertiliser, if you must know.)

When Tywin dies, the nerves finally allow his muscles to release, and the described effect comes to pass.

Without something like that you have to explain why Tywin, obviously in the need of release, had not yet shat. What was he doing on the loo?

I've enjoyed reading all of this and just have a few points to interject. If they've been covered already, please forgive the interruption.

1. If I wanted to keep someone occupied in the privy such as Tyrion did with Cersei, I'd be more apt to choose something to loosen their bowels, not stop them up. Yes, constipation is unpleasant, but which makes you take a day off from work: not being able to unload, or being glued to the throne while your bowels run like a faucet?

2. Why is Tywin using the facilities at that time of night when he has a young woman waiting in his bed? How about simple age? While he's fit, Tywin is no longer a young man and it's common enough for older folks to be in and out of the bathroom all night and to have to work a little harder for the payoff at times.

3. Funeral Stench: I don't remember if it was this thread or the previous one that mentioned Westersosi embalming techniques not being up to snuff, but there's some truth in that. A crossbow quarrel to the gut is going to make it that much harder. Gastrointestinal bleeds and perforated bowels (such as you'd get with a crossbow quarrel through them) have their own unique stench that most medical personnel learn quickly and don't ever forget. It's pungent enough you can easily pick it out in a nursing home full of dirty Depends or a hospital's medical floor.

4. Tywin's final salute: When folks die or even injuries to the head or spine, it's pretty common to void. The urethral and anal sphincters lose their muscle tone and anything they've been holding back is free to escape. If they're sitting upright it's aided by gravity, so of course Tyrion had a rather shitty climb.

This has to be the crappiest first post I've ever made on a forum.

[Chirios]

Regarding the first point, I do not see how having mistress after the wife dies can shame her memory.

You're ignoring the possibility that Tywin simply loved Joanna, and didn't want to insult her memory (publicly at least). There's also the possibility that he didn't want to look like he was letting her go, especially to his family.

Regarding the second point, people are not impressed by avoiding difficulties. You overcome them, not avoid them. Being defeated is bad, avoiding fighting is also bad, best is winning fights. Avoiding sex is not impressive in a fighter and ruler. It may be for a holy man in some religions (as is poverty and pacifism) but not for a manly man who needs to impress his followers and enemies. A manly man is not celibate. Obviously, at same time he keeps his whores and mistresses on a firm, short leash and in their places.

Tywin is the exception. He is exceptional. You cannot send whores to spy on him, he does not sleep with whores. You cannot bribe him with wine, he has no appetite for it, nor food. And gold? He is the richest man in the seven Kingdoms. Tywin is a glacier, implacable, unavoidable. The only thing you can do is move out of his way or treat with him honestly, and hope to gain his favour.

Or at least that's how Tywin wants to appear to the world.

Why did Tywin never marry again? He must have been relatively young when his wife died. Marriages are serious affair among the nobility. They create by far the strongest alliances. As such it is almost his duty to marry again in order to secure an alliance with some other house. This suggests that he was emotionally incapable to be with a new woman after the death of his wife. Including also whores ans mistresses.

That's one reason. The other is that he couldn't. He had three children, two boys and one girl, one heir and one spare, and one for marriages. Marrying again would endanger his children's lives, as his new wife would be eager to have her children ruling the Westerlands. If he was unwilling to set his first set of children aside, marrying him is pointless, as it gains other families nothing.

[Lommy got the shaft]

Why didn't Tywin hear Tyrion killing Shae? IIRC he strangles her but surely he's not strong enought to crush her windpipe or otherwise muffle her screams. Even if I were on the crapper I'd probably at least stand up and peak out the door if I heard someone being strangled in my bed in the middle of the night.

[Dragonfish]

Why didn't Tywin hear Tyrion killing Shae? IIRC he strangles her but surely he's not strong enought to crush her windpipe or otherwise muffle her screams. Even if I were on the crapper I'd probably at least stand up and peak out the door if I heard someone being strangled in my bed in the middle of the night.

I don't think the privy adjoined the room they were in, I think it was across the hall.

[Lord Varys]

The maps of the Tower of the Hand are confused. Back in ACoK it's stated that Tyrion had a privy integrated into his own solar/bedchamber complex, i.e. the Hand had private privy which would make sense.

And I'm pretty sure the guards where not directly outside the bedchamber, but outside the apartment complex of the Hand of King.

But the privy Tywin was killed as was an open privy which was used by other guys as well, as AFfC confirms that Tywin's man Lum found him when he felt a call of nature and visited the privy.

This confuses things even more. My guess is that Tywin was not on his private privy because he fucked Shae, but could not sleep (maybe because of this issue with the son he was about the execute), rose, tried to do something, and ended up on the privy. The fact that Shae wakes from sleep when Tyrion enters the bedchamber indicates that Tywin and Shae had finished their sexual activities for quite some time. Else she would not have been asleep.

Tywin could have easily remarried. And Tywin would have had no problems with a his new wife pressing him to disinherit Tyrion or Cersei to get her children rule the Westerlands, as he never intended for Cersei or Tyrion to rule them.

But it's obvious that he did not want to remarry. He did not even choose a proper wife when he married the first time. Instead of marrying the daughter of another great house, he married his own cousin because he actually loved that woman. It had no political significance whatsoever. And I'm pretty sure his father was quite happy to make Tywin and Joanna happy.

He himself did what he want, but he did never allow his own children to do the same.

And we should keep in mind that this also indicates that Tywin himself was not that far-removed from Cersei's and Jaime's incestuous relationship. Joanna was his close kin, and I'm pretty sure he was secretly proud of Jaime's and Cersei's relationship and his royal pure-blooded Lannister grandsons. He calls both Joffrey and Tommen 'Lannisters' and 'lions' in more than one occasion. But he surely is not happy with continuing this folly now where it is threatening Joff's/Tommen's claim to throne. That's why Cersei is supposed to remarry. There was no real need for that, nor was there any for Cersei to give birth to more children.

And Jaime is supposed to marry to continue the main branch of House Lannister as Tywin's chosen heir to Casterly Rock.

[Marcus of the South]

Could Shae actually scream or make any noise at all if her windpipe is forced closed? She's not going to get any air out of her lungs for a shout or scream.