Varys has brought Shae to Tywin via the secret passageways!

[Datepalm]

Wait, now you believe Varys?

Varys's motivation is to plant a seed in Tyrion's mind. He knows that he will make Tyrion kill his father in a crime of passion. That's why Varys works so hard to keep the Tyrion–Shae relationship alive in the first place. Why else would he do that? It's the very first thing he learns about Tyrion, his leverage.

He can keep that alive just to have a card up his sleeve, he dosen't need to be planning that exact scenario all the way back on day 1. For all he knows, Tyrion is exactly the incompetent nutter Cercei turns out to be. Maybe he's the Lannister he wants. :dunno: Personally, I got the impression was much older - a hundred years or more. Its just a bit of worldbuilding, rather than something connected to a familiar character.

[mormont]

If Tywin didn't construct it, then who did? Merryweather? Connington? Chelsted? Rossart? Which one of these men had the most time to construct the tunnel, and would also be the most likely to be ashamed enough of his whoring to want to keep it secret?

Even if Varys is telling the truth, he says nothing about when the tunnel was built. We've no particular reason to suspect it was during Aerys' reign.

And I'm not sure you're really getting my point, in any case. I'm not saying Tywin couldn't have built the tunnel. I'm saying it's hard to credit that he both built the tunnel and has Shae brought to his chambers in the Tower of the Hand. On the one hand an extreme avoidance of risk, on the other running an apparently unnecessary risk. It's difficult to reconcile. Not impossible, but difficult.

[Dragonfish]

Wait, now you believe Varys?

Varys’s motivation is to plant a seed in Tyrion’s mind. He knows that he will make Tyrion kill his father in a crime of passion. That’s why Varys works so hard to keep the Tyrion–Shae relationship alive in the first place. Why else would he do that? It’s the very first thing he learns about Tyrion, his leverage.

So for some reason it's farfetched that Tywin would simply have Shae brought to his room, but it's not farfetched that Varys would see all of this coming and plant seeds this early on? Come on, this plan is getting more convoluted by the minute.

Wait, somehow? He lit the brazier in that room himself! He himself put the blindfold on Shae that conveniently “slipped” in just that room.

He’s a master thief and schemer who has negotiated the seediest districts of KL for decades but he can’t blindfold a teenager? He can navigate the entire tunnel system in pitch black but needs this very room illuminated? Twice?

And as I and others have asked before, why would Varys go to the trouble to hatch such a convoluted scheme when he can simply kill Tywin and make it look like Tyrion did it?

[Happy Ent]

So then why doesn't he simply kill Tywin and then make it look like Tyrion did it?

Because Tyrion needs to know that he killed his father.

Remember, in the eyes of everybody else, Tyrion is already guilty of regicide. But he still kept his loyalty to his house. Heaping a patricide on that doesn’t change much.

Varys has no reason to pin a crime that he did on Tyrion. He’d be fine with everybody believing Varys killed Tywin. But Tyrion needs to have actually done it.

If Shae was drugged and brought to Tywin's room against her will,

Who says that? She was brought to the room exactly like the first time.

Varys brought her there, fully conscious, through the secret entrance. She undressed, got in the bed, even put the chain on. Varys and Shae have done exactly this on the eve of the Blackwater. Then, she was visiting Tyrion. Now Varys has told her that she is to pleasure Tywin.

He then gives her a glass of wine, to relax. (She is, as she admits, frightened of Tywin.) He tells her that Tywin will be back soon. Then she falls asleep. Varys arranges the dagger, chest, crossbow, and leaves. (All this time, Tywin is probably already on the loo.)

[Datepalm]

I don't think it's farfetched, it's probable that Varys always made sure he had a ship on standby in case he ever needed to make a quick getaway.

Its possible, but its also not a mark against the theory.

So then why doesn't he simply kill Tywin and then make it look like Tyrion did it?

Lol, most disingeneous bit of quoting ever. Because Tyrion is a loose cannon of uncertain loyalties with an unhealthy attachment to his Lannister family, as it stands. Tyrion the Parricide? Despised pariah. No one is taking this guy back, not Jaime, not Kevan, no one, And he knows it, which is maybe more important in terms of assuring his loyalty to Dany.

If Shae was drugged and brought to Tywin's room against her will, then why does she smile and say "milord" when Tyrion wakes her, almost as if she's expecting someone? And when she wakes up fully, why isn't her first reaction to say, "Where am I?" or "How did you get in my room?"

Shae was brought in and told to please sleep with the gentleman who'll be arriving, usual fee. Then she waits and sips some (drugged) wine, and falls asleep for a while, to take her out of the equation.

[Dragonfish]

Even if Varys is telling the truth, he says nothing about when the tunnel was built. We've no particular reason to suspect it was during Aerys' reign.

Varys didn't come to Westeros until Aerys' reign. It's doubtful, to my mind, that his knowledge of Westerosi history would be so intimate as to know which Hand secretively built the tunnel before he ever arrived. But admittedly, that's all just my opinion.

And I'm not sure you're really getting my point, in any case. I'm not saying Tywin couldn't have built the tunnel.

Wait, so are you willing to admit that Tywin may have built the tunnel? If so, then that gets rid of some important supporting evidence for the theory, namely, that it's not in Tywin's character to sleep with whores.

I'm saying it's hard to credit that he both built the tunnel and has Shae brought to his chambers in the Tower of the Hand. On the one hand an extreme avoidance of risk, on the other running an apparently unnecessary risk. It's difficult to reconcile. Not impossible, but difficult.

I've already attempted to reconcile that (which is why I was focusing on your point about Tywin building the tunnel, and not your overall point about his behavior seeming inconsistent). We already have the example of Tyrion going to great lengths to keep Shae secretive, only one day to dispense with all the secrecy in a fit of impatience. Perhaps Tywin did the same thing.

[Lord Varys]

Tywin was a perverse shit. How do we know? Tyrion is, as well. And Tywin is very much a larger version of Tyrion.

You can't possibly believe Shae awoke from being drugged from the noise Tyrion made when entering the bedchamber. You can't possibly believe that Shae's words after she's awoken beginning with 'M'lord' while wearing a pretty sleepy smile do not incline that she was awaiting Tywin's return. And you can't possibly believe that she would know about Tywin's immediate return, if she had no sex with him before, and knew exactly what she was doing here.

Thinking that Tywin's public appearance was really the person is stupid, as you let yourself being deceived by the perception of the POV characters, especially Tyrion. Tywin could and did laugh and smile. He had emotions, fears, desires, and stuff. We learn that to a degree in AFfC, and it would not be out of character for 'Tall-Tyrion' to behave like the original Tyrion in private. Tywin had as much an issue with whores as Tyrion, due to his experience with Tytos. He appears strong in public - as does Tyrion, for instance, when he threatens Cersei's life in ACoK - but I'm pretty sure he was not that strong in truth. GRRM does make a lot subtle jokes about him and his public persona to point out that this is just appearance, not the actual man - 'dancing with unsmiling grace', if that's not funny, I don't know what is.

Oh, and by the way, I do not expect this issue to be discussed in ADwD at all. Varys is most likely not going to show up in that book, and even if he should (which would be greatly appreciated by me) then I think he will not discuss Tywin Lannister's death. As far as we know he is still in KL. And we won't spend a lot of time in KL in ADwD. And Tyrion is not going to find knowledge about Varys' manipulations wherever he is headed.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Right, exactly! The theory goes that(and someone can correct me if I get details wrong):

Thank you, Datepalm. The theory seems a bit too convoluted and dependent on unpredictable variables to me, but it's not like the unlikely doesn't happen a lot in this series.

[Dragonfish]

Its possible, but its also not a mark against the theory.

You were using the fact that Varys had a ship ready as a mark against the theory I favor. I was simply showing that it wasn't a mark against it.

Lol, most disingeneous bit of quoting ever.

I assume you're talking about my leaving out the part where you said, "Varys also wants Tyrion to be in a place where theres no way anyone in Westeros is ever taking him back and Dany is his only option. Parricide covers that." Or do I have that wrong? Whatever the case, apologies if I misquoted you somehow. But the reason I left that part out was because all of that can also be achieved by Varys simply killing Tywin and making it look like Tyrion did it.

Shae was brought in and told to please sleep with the gentleman who'll be arriving, usual fee. Then she waits and sips some (drugged) wine, and falls asleep for a while, to take her out of the equation.

First of all, coming out of a drug-induced stupor is not the same as simply waking up. It's likely she would have had a pounding headache of some sort, and that she'd be confused about where she was even if she was brought there willingly.

Second of all, Tyrion happens to come to her just as she's waking up from her drugging? Once again, too coincidental.

[Happy Ent]

You can't possibly believe Shae awoke from being drugged from the noise Tyrion made when entering the bedchamber. You can't possibly believe that Shae's words after she's awoken beginning with 'M'lord' while wearing a pretty sleepy smile do not incline that she was awaiting Tywin's return. And you can't possibly believe that she would know about Tywin's immediate return, if she had no sex with him before, and knew exactly what she was doing here.

Not clear whom you are adressing, but let me try.

1. Shae woke up because the drug had worn off and Tyrion made some noise.

2. Shae was indeed awaiting Tywin’s arrival. (Not his return. She hasn’t yet met him in the bedroom, and Tywin has no idea she’s there.)

3. She knows about Tywin’s immediate “return” because Varys told her that Tywin would indeed soon arrive.

[Lord Varys]

Oh, and I've reread AGoT-ASoS in the last months really, really carefully, and there is no indication that Tywin had a complicated/strained working relationship with Varys. He speaks not that highly of him and Littlefinger and Pycelle when he sends Tyrion to KL. But that's all. There is no line dropped that Tywin intended to kill off Varys, did not trust him, or something like that. And that he concluded Varys had to be responsible for Tyrion's escape is no sign of his deep mistrust of the eunuch, but merely showing that he is not entirely stupid. Everybody would conclude that Varys was responsible in Tywin's situation, as only Varys had the necessary knowledge to enable Tyrion to slip unnoticed into Tywin's bedchamber.

So I really do see Tywin using Varys exactly the same way as Tyrion did. To hide his shameful little secrets, and to get whores right up into his bed whenever he desired them. Tywin would not be afraid of Varys knowing the secret entrance to his bedchamber, as I don't see him fearing the likes of Varys at all.

[mormont]

Varys didn't come to Westeros until Aerys' reign. It's doubtful, to my mind, that his knowledge of Westerosi history would be so intimate as to know which Hand secretively built the tunnel before he ever arrived. But admittedly, that's all just my opinion.

For Varys to know about the tunnel, all that's necessary is for someone to know about it. Little birds...

Wait, so are you willing to admit that Tywin may have built the tunnel? If so, then that gets rid of some important supporting evidence for the theory, namely, that it's not in Tywin's character to sleep with whores.

I must admit, I'm ambivalent about the theory: I see strong arguments both for and against. But whether or not Tywin built the tunnel isn't crucial so far as I can see, though I know HE differs. As I say, if he was the Hand Varys is talking about, then we still have to explain why he suddenly departs from an established MO.

I've already attempted to reconcile that (which is why I was focusing on your point about Tywin building the tunnel, and not your overall point about his behavior seeming inconsistent). We already have the example of Tyrion going to great lengths to keep Shae secretive, only one day to dispense with all the secrecy in a fit of impatience. Perhaps Tywin did the same thing.

And this, I'm afraid, simply won't do it. It's just restating the problem, not answering it. Tywin is not Tyrion. It makes sense that Tyrion lost patience: it was out of character for him to be as patient as he was, and he was emotionally entangled with Shae in particular. It makes no sense that Tywin would do the same. He is not generally given to fits of impatience, and if he did build that tunnel, that's evidence that he wasn't given to fits of impatience in this aspect of his life in particular. So why would he suddenly become so? And on that particular night? With that particular woman?

[Lord Varys]

HE,

well, Shae lying around in Tywin's bed for hours and hours works because Tywin is glued to the privy, then. For hourse as well, as Varys would have had to pull this off hours ago, as he hanged around with the Lannister boys for at least some time.

But we already know that Tywin was not on the privy for long, as he had not yet taken his shit when Tyrion killed him. And we also know that the privy was part of the bedchamber quarters of the apartment of the Hand in the Tower of the Hand. Meaning you could reach it from the bedchamber, but most likely not from some place else. Meaning Tywin had to go through his bedchamber to reach it, meaning that he would have seen Shae in his bed. Meaning that this is simply not possible. Also, how should Varys/Shae could lay their hands of the Chain of the Hand, if Tywin had not given it to her? He would not have left it for them to play with, if he had not wanted them to play with it.

Lastly, Tywin wore his bedrobe while sitting on the privy. Why would he be dressed for bed if he did not rise from bed to go to the privy.

[Morrigan]

It's fun to see plots and schemings all over the place, but sometimes, a spade is a spade and Occam's Razor works best. Tywin being an hypocrite should be no surprise, really.

[Nukelavee]

Alas, Lord Varys... what ifthe REAL Varys (srry), had jiggered the menu to feature a flaming cheese appetizer, cheese and turnips, cheese stuffed quail, with cheesecake for dessert.

I think it might take hours to pass a meal like that. Nay - I KNOW that much cheese might require a long visit...

[Happy Ent]

well, Shae lying around in Tywin's bed for hours and hours works because Tywin is glued to the privy, then. For hourse as well, as Varys would have had to pull this off hours ago, as he hanged around with the Lannister boys for at least some time.

It’s hard to say. We’ve tried to reconstruct timelines for this a few times during the years. If you don’t like the idea that Shae is drugged longer than, say, the guards outside of Tyrion’s cell (who also got a dose of Sweetsleep) then you can pretend that Varys had somebody else do the drugging. Servants. Little birds. I don’t much care.

But I find it useless to debate the effects of a fictional poison. It does exactly what that author requires it to do. We know already that there is a poison that glues you to the privy shaft for hours. We also know of Sweetsleep. If GRRM needs them to work in a specific way for this scene, he can just make it so.

But we already know that Tywin was not on the privy for long, as he had not yet taken his shit when Tyrion killed him.

No. This is a problem for your theory, not mine.

Tywin is severely constipated. (Widow’s Blood is not a laxative.) When he dies, the poison-induced physiological WhateverItIs stops, and he can finally release.

In your theory, Tywin has been on the privy for a while at least. Shae fell asleep. Tyrion appears. He strangles her, arms himself. That’s 5 minutes, possibly much, much longer.

What on Earth was Tywin doing on the loo? Certainly not shitting. And he also certainly was not masturbating according to the theory that he just had sex, or was going to have sex, with Shae. So what was he doing? His bowels are clearly full, since he releases them immediately at the time of death.

And we also know that the privy was part of the bedchamber quarters of the apartment of the Hand in the Tower of the Hand. Meaning you could reach it from the bedchamber, but most likely not from some place else. Meaning Tywin had to go through his bedchamber to reach it, meaning that he would have seen Shae in his bed. Meaning that this is simply not possible.

Tywin’s been on the loo long before Shae arrived. No problem at all.

And he of course has no idea she’s there. Under your theory it’s much harder to explain why he wants to talk Tyrion down by suggesting to go back to the bedroom, where Shae is! Their entire conversation makes perfect sense if you posit Tywin has no idea she’s there. Otherwise it’s a very, very strange conversation. About whores. While Tywin knows that Tyrion just saw Shae in the bedroom?

Also, how should Varys/Shae could lay their hands of the Chain of the Hand, if Tywin had not given it to her? He would not have left it for them to play with, if he had not wanted them to play with it.

He keeps the chain in the bedroom. Just as Tyrion did in the exact same scene in Clash. No mystery at all.

Lastly, Tywin wore his bedrobe while sitting on the privy. Why would he be dressed for bed if he did not rise from bed to go to the privy.

I have no idea why this should be a problem. It’s the middle of the night. What else should he be wearing?

[mormont]

Lord Varys: I'm afraid you might need to read a little closer. ;) Remember, Varys and Tywin have history - when Pycelle urged Aerys to open the gates of King's Landing to Tywin, who was it that told him not to? The very first time Tywin mentions Varys, he calls him a 'jackanapes' and 'that cockless wonder'. Now, to be fair the first term is applied to all three of them - LF, Varys, and Pycelle - but the other two get 'our friend Petyr' and 'the venerable Grand Maester', sarcasm rather than outright abuse.

And besides, do you think Tywin would trust either LF or Pycelle with procuring his whores either - let alone with a secret door into his bedchamber? Is there anyone in Westeros that Tywin would trust with a secret door into his bedchamber?

[Happy Ent]

Tywin being an hypocrite should be no surprise, really.

How about Varys being incompetent, then?

1. Varys cannot negotiate rooms with dragon mosaics in perfect dark. (All other room and tunnels are fine. But dragon mosaics for some reason nullify his night vision.) That is why he needs that single room illuminated at all times. Or he just really likes the motif.

2. Varys is unable to blindfold Shae.

3. Varys thinks it’s a good idea to tip his hand to Tyrion: Varys controls a secret entrance to the Hand’s quarters. He reveals this major, huge, fricking thing only to facilitate a night of hot love-making with Shae. Even though we later learn that Varys can arrange these kings of rendevouz in several other locations (his own quarters included.) But no, on this single night (when conveniently Tyrion will leave the quarters the next night no matter the outcome of the battle), it has to be the Hand’s bedroom, with the secret passage.

4. Varys lets himself be ambushed by a one-handed Jaime who makes noise while waiting in ambush (and the reader is even told about this). In order to let himself be ambushed he enters his own quarters through the front door (rather than use one of his secret passages). Lucky Varys isn’t a master spy, a master of whisperers, a major player in the underworld of KL, because he’d be dead by now.

5. Varys, having been bullied against his will to free Tyrion (and luckily being able to conjure ships out of nothing into the ruined harbour of KL) by the mighty Jaime then forgets that there is no longer a threat when he tells Jaime that he can’t tag along through the tunnels under the Red Keep! Imagine that! Jaime’s presence is so powerful that Varys steel feels bound to release Tyrion even after Jaime is no longer threatening him! The idea to re-imprison Tyrion, or just leave him in the dungeons never appears to him! Poor, poor Varys, to have been forced into the treason.

6. Varys is talked into revealing the exact route to the Hand’s quarters from the dragon mosaic room by Tyrion. Oh, how he tries to resist the cunning linguistic programming by the dwarf! But Tyrion is just too powerful. Ah, the threats! Oh, the verbal traps.

7. At no time did Varys plan how to kill Tywin.

8. At no time did Varys he ponder how to attract Tyrion. It all just falls into his lap! Serendipity!

[Dragonfish]

I must admit, I'm ambivalent about the theory: I see strong arguments both for and against. But whether or not Tywin built the tunnel isn't crucial so far as I can see, though I know HE differs. As I say, if he was the Hand Varys is talking about, then we still have to explain why he suddenly departs from an established MO.

As I said before, if Tywin did build the tunnel, then it shoots down one of the supporting pillars of the theory: that Tywin is not the kind of person to sleep with whores. If you're willing to accept this sort of thing is in his character, then it's not so farfetched to suppose he slept with Shae.

And this, I'm afraid, simply won't do it. It's just restating the problem, not answering it.

The point was to show how a person can go to so much trouble to keep something secret, then nearly ruin that secrecy in a moment of weakness.

Tywin is not Tyrion.

Except that if Tywin sleeps with whores, then he's a lot like Tyrion in a number of ways.

It makes sense that Tyrion lost patience: it was out of character for him to be as patient as he was, and he was emotionally entangled with Shae in particular. It makes no sense that Tywin would do the same. He is not generally given to fits of impatience, and if he did build that tunnel, that's evidence that he wasn't given to fits of impatience in this aspect of his life in particular. So why would he suddenly become so? And on that particular night? With that particular woman?

I think it's a lot easier to explain this apparent inconsistency by simply saying Tywin was impatient in a moment of weakness, rather than saying Varys hatched a convoluted plot to have him killed. Tywin wasn't perfect, and if he did sleep with whores, contrary to his public image, then it's not so difficult to suppose that he could sometimes be impatient, also contrary to his public image.

[Morrigan]

How about Varys being incompetent, then?

1. Varys cannot negotiate rooms with dragon mosaics in perfect dark. (All other room and tunnels are fine. But dragon mosaics for some reason nullify his night vision.) That is why he needs that single room illuminated at all times. Or he just really likes the motif.

2. Varys is unable to blindfold Shae.

3. Varys thinks it’s a good idea to tip his hand to Tyrion: Varys controls a secret entrance to the Hand’s quarters. He reveals this major, huge, fricking thing only to facilitate a night of hot love-making with Shae. Even though we later learn that Varys can arrange these kings of rendevouz in several other locations (his own quarters included.) But no, on this single night (when conveniently Tyrion will leave the quarters the next night no matter the outcome of the battle), it has to be the Hand’s bedroom, with the secret passage.

4. Varys lets himself be ambushed by a one-handed Jaime who makes noise while waiting in ambush (and the reader is even told about this). In order to let himself be ambushed he enters his own quarters through the front door (rather than use one of his secret passages). Lucky Varys isn’t a master spy, a master of whisperers, a major player in the underworld of KL, because he’d be dead by now.

5. Varys, having been bullied against his will to free Tyrion (and luckily being able to conjure ships out of nothing into the ruined harbour of KL) by the mighty Jaime then forgets that there is no longer a threat when he tells Jaime that he can’t tag along through the tunnels under the Red Keep! Imagine that! Jaime’s presence is so powerful that Varys steel feels bound to release Tyrion even after Jaime is no longer threatening him! The idea to re-imprison Tyrion, or just leave him in the dungeons never appears to him! Poor, poor Varys, to have been forced into the treason.

6. Varys is talked into revealing the exact route to the Hand’s quarters from the dragon mosaic room by Tyrion. Oh, how he tries to resist the cunning linguistic programming by the dwarf! But Tyrion is just too powerful. Ah, the threats! Oh, the verbal traps.

7. At no time did Varys plan how to kill Tywin.

8. At no time did Varys he ponder how to attract Tyrion. It all just falls into his lap! Serendipity!

Clearly Varys did plan on Tyrion escaping, but it does not follow that he planted Shae and poisoned Tywin to get him on the privy. If Varys's plan was to get Tyrion to kill Tywin, he went at it the wrong way, because there are just too many variables for that plan to work. Not to mention, Tyrion's primary motive at that time is Jaime having revealed the truth about Tysha, which Varys could not possibly have known nor counted on.