Varys has brought Shae to Tywin via the secret passageways!

[Nukelavee]

Actually, Mormont, my bit about the guards was less about the theory, and more, seriously, WTF?!?! Those guys had balls to mouth off like that, with the chance that Tywin could, possibly, hear them. Sure, people mock Tywin, but not where he can catch them at it.

Strike the chest off being a plotting device - he's a dwarf, not a furbie, he could grab a chair and move it pretty quick.

Strike the visit before the Blackwater off, too - Varys couldn't have known how the battle was going to end, Tyrion's fate, any of it.

Now - I posit that the dragon room was meant by Varys to give an obvious point during Tyrion's escape to bring up teh subject of Dany, and going to her. He mentioned Tywin's chambers simply to PREVENT Tyrion from wandering, relying on his fear of his father (well, the intimidation factor), to reinforce the need to leave.

The crossbow - I'm amzed the halfman could even cock the damn thing, those things take serious strength and leverage to load, so, yeah, it's a gimme, but not in the way "it was left for Tyrion by Varys", but in a "No way halfpint is taking his dad in a fight" way.

Oh, as an aside - If I were Tywin - I'd drop the occasional nugget of goldinto my chamberpots, just to fuck with people.

[starki]

The "Varys planned it all" theory requires a lot to make it work...

- the guards making jokes about Shae. I do not believe they did not see Shae at one point or another.

- Varys has no idea Jamie is about to divulge the Tysha-bomb to Tyrion.

- How does Varys know Tyrion will kill Shae and Tywinn ? Tyrion goes up the chamber because Jamie talked about Tysha, originally only to talk with Tywinn.

- Varys just happens to have a ship ready...no. Jaime tells him to get a ship ready for his brother.

- any Lannister, even as smart as Tyrion, won't last 5 seconds in Dany's presence. The family betrayed and murdered the Targaryen heirs.

- exactly when did Varys plan all this ? And keep in mind Tyrion going postal means he has to disappear from the cozy world of KL...

Tywinn was having fun with Shae theory makes plenty of sense:

- interrogating the whore - she might know about Tyrion/Sansa dealings re: Joffrey's murder

- it would be typical for Tywinn if he was to take over his son's woman as the ultimate humiliation, after Shae buries Tyrion at the trial

- all Lannister men have female issues; why not Tywinn ?

- Shae's smile and "milord?" when she wakes up. That doesn't sound like "I was drugged and I have no idea what I'm doing here" does it ?

- even Cersei didn't know she was in the room. Tywinn likes to keep his secrets.

[Nukelavee]

She doesn't just wake up and say "M'Lord?", she immediately fakes tears to manipulate Tyrion.

Personally, I myself can barely focus my eyes when waking after a drug induced stupor.

[Bastard of Godsgrace]

Anyway, we will probably never know the truth. Tywin and Shae are unable to say anything, and Varys probably won't brag about it to anybody.

[starki]

She doesn't just wake up and say "M'Lord?", she immediately fakes tears to manipulate Tyrion.

Personally, I myself can barely focus my eyes when waking after a drug induced stupor.

Yes, she does.

The tears come immediately afterwards when she sees that Tyrion, and not Tywinn, is there.

[Happy Ent]

- the guards making jokes about Shae. I do not believe they did not see Shae at one point or another.

Then have Varys get her in through the front door, in plain sight of the guards. No skin off my back. It’s a decision that has little impact on the claim that Varys planned this, drugged Shae, and poisoned Tywin. In the 2009 discussion (linked early in this thread) that is the version I defend.

- Varys has no idea Jamie is about to divulge the Tysha-bomb to Tyrion.

Please read teh thread. I have explicitly claimed several times that Varys does indeed have no such idea, and the theory doesn’t need it.

- How does Varys know Tyrion will kill Shae and Tywinn ? Tyrion goes up the chamber because Jamie talked about Tysha, originally only to talk with Tywinn.

And yet it worked. He could have concocted a thousand other ruses.

- Varys just happens to have a ship ready...no. Jaime tells him to get a ship ready for his brother

And he forces Varys to do that how? On a few hours notice? In a ruined harbour? Did Jaime walk Varys down there, at sword point? I cannot picture that part of the explanation at all.

- any Lannister, even as smart as Tyrion, won't last 5 seconds in Dany's presence. The family betrayed and murdered the Targaryen heirs.

The theory indeed crucially posits that Tyrion will become Dany’s advisor, a board theory that is many, many years old. If you don’t buy that, the theory is indeed difficult to accept.

- exactly when did Varys plan all this ? And keep in mind Tyrion going postal means he has to disappear from the cozy world of KL...

From the moment Tyrion set foot in Kings Landing in the beginning of Clash. Two book’s time. Tyrion going postal does indeed terminate Varys’s time at King’s Landing. Your explanation needs to argue why Varys – provided he didn’t want this – agreed with Jaime’s plan. As soon as Jaime left Varys and Tyrion in the tunnels (which makes no sense at all under your theory) Varys could have just killed Tyrion (or left him to rot in the cellars), or re-imprisoned him, and told Tywin all about it, securing eternal fame and glory in the Red Keep. Pray, why didn’t he do that? There was certainly no threat from Jaime anymore?

(Answer: because this was Varys’s plan all along. Jaime has nothing to do with it. Varys wants Tyrion to go postal. It’s the whole point of the exercise.)

[Nukelavee]

Ent - I really don't think you can point to Tyrion killing his dad and going to Pentos as being Varys' plan, and then backwards construct the sequence of events all the way to, oh, before Stannis attacked, and then posit THAT as a workable sequence, and then saw, well, the proof of the plan's existance is that Varys achieved his plan.

The points where the plan can be totally shitcanned by somebody else, or certain events that were beyond Varys' control, makes it a totally ludicrous concept.

Shae seeing the mosaic? she was blindfolded, but peeked out the bottom, how could Varys know she would both peek, and remember? Her being taken on the route a way to clue Tyrion in for an event that is months later? More likely a way to prove he had done what Tyrion asked.

The "one lit room has the mosaic"? No, only the actual section of teh route thru the black cells is unlit, the rest of the route has torches, so, not really unusual or bizzare. The brazier, etc? It's a hub for the tunnels and passages, it links to the cells, the Tower of the Hand, and an exit from the keep. Varys likely uses it as a little base during his spying.

Plus - a huge part of Tyrion's problem (the execution and the events leading up to it" are that he is powerless, because he got injured during the battle, and his family removed all his security. For Varys to plan for THAT, hehad to know that the Hound would break, that Tyrion would lead the charge, that the KG dude, would try and fail at killing him, and that Pod would be there to save Tyrion.

The killing of Joff seems to be a Tyrell/LF plot, not Varys', so, again, Varys had to know about LF and Sansa, and count on Sansa getting away to keep Tyrion trapped. Further, it also means he somehow long ago made Tyrion steal the right poison from Pycell, so that it could be used against him.

It relies on Oberon being cocky and losing.

There are FAR too many impossible points on that chain for it to be as long asyou seem to like it to be. Now, if you simply said "Varys improvised when Jaimie showed up, and took a super long shot", I could see it being a possiblity.

[mormont]

Actually, Mormont, my bit about the guards was less about the theory, and more, seriously, WTF?!?! Those guys had balls to mouth off like that, with the chance that Tywin could, possibly, hear them. Sure, people mock Tywin, but not where he can catch them at it.

We don't really know they were mocking Tywin, to be fair. I decided to go look up the relevant bit for below, so here's the passage where the guards talk:

Soon he began to hear voices, muffled and indistinct at first, then clearer. He listened more closely. Two of his father's guardsmen were joking about the Imp's whore, saying how sweet it would be to fuck her, and how bad she must want a real cock instead of the Imp's stunted little thing. "Most like it's got a crook in it," said Lum. That led him into a discussion of how Tyrion would die on the morrow.

This is an unspecified distance from the door into the bedchamber. So, even if we assume that Shae was brought in by the front door, they may be some distance from where Tywin is. And if she wasn't, and the conversation's just a coincidence (plausible, I think) they're not even talking about Tywin.

Now - I posit that the dragon room was meant by Varys to give an obvious point during Tyrion's escape to bring up teh subject of Dany, and going to her. He mentioned Tywin's chambers simply to PREVENT Tyrion from wandering, relying on his fear of his father (well, the intimidation factor), to reinforce the need to leave.

I'm going to quote again: the whole section is too long, but do reread it. There's a description of the room, with mosaic and brazier and doors and all, and then Tyrion realises that:

This is the place Shae told me of, when Varys first led her to my bed. "We are below the Tower of the Hand."

"Yes." Frozen hinges screamed in protest as Varys pulled open a long-closed door. Flakes of rust drifted to the floor. "This will take us out to the river."

Tyrion walked slowly to the ladder, ran his hand across the lowest rung. "This will take me up to my bedchamber."

"Your lord father's bedchamber now."

He looked up the shaft. "How far must I climb?"

"My lord, you are too weak for such follies, and there is besides no time. We must go."

"I have business above. How far?"

"Two hundred and thirty rungs, but whatever you intend - "

"Two hundred and thirty rungs, and then?"

"The tunnel to the left, but hear me - "

"How far along to the bedchamber?" Tyrion lifted a foot to the lowest rung of the ladder.

"No more than sixty feet. Keep one hand on the wall as you go. You will feel the doors. The bedchamber is the third." He sighed. "This is folly, my lord. Your brother has given you your life back. Would you cast it away, and mine with it?"

"Varys, the only thing I value less than my life at just now is yours. Wait here."

And he does.

Does that mention of 'your lord father's bedchamber' really read like a warning? It comes before Tyrion's intent is clear. The explicit warnings Varys does give are interesting. He makes it very clear that the most likely outcome of Tyrion going up that ladder is that both of them will die. But if he's really worried about that, why doesn't he simply refuse to give the directions? They're quite detailed: there's no way Tyrion could have found his way without them. Tyrion clearly doesn't threaten him physically: and besides, only a page earlier, Varys had noted that "If you slay me here, I fear for you, my lord. You may never find your way back to daylight."

So Varys isn't afraid of what Tyrion might do if he refuses to give the directions, but he is claiming to be afraid of what might happen if he does give out the directions. Yet, he coughs them out - under protest, maybe, but it's not really the strongest protest I've ever read. And why protest when you can refuse?

It's not conclusive - I've said that already - but the conversation seems a bit off to me.

The "Varys planned it all" theory requires a lot to make it work...

- the guards making jokes about Shae. I do not believe they did not see Shae at one point or another.

If Shae was brought in the front way, then of course they did. But with the trial, it's at least plausible that they just happened to be talking about her.

I'd have to say, though, that if she was brought in the front way, it's interesting that they don't seem surprised. Even if Tywin was widely known to be a hypocrite about whoring (and we really only have one other hint of this), this would seem to be a big change from his usual MO, as I noted above. But then, maybe they've discussed that already.

- Varys has no idea Jamie is about to divulge the Tysha-bomb to Tyrion.

True.

- How does Varys know Tyrion will kill Shae and Tywinn ? Tyrion goes up the chamber because Jamie talked about Tysha, originally only to talk with Tywinn.

Uh, what do you suppose Tywin was going to do after this father-son chat? Wish Tyrion good luck with the escape?

One thing we can say with certainty either way: the moment Tyrion decided to go up that ladder, the die was cast. Either he was going to die, or Tywin was.

- Varys just happens to have a ship ready...no. Jaime tells him to get a ship ready for his brother.

Yes, and Varys just happens to have one handy.

- any Lannister, even as smart as Tyrion, won't last 5 seconds in Dany's presence. The family betrayed and murdered the Targaryen heirs.

Jorah Mormont fought for Ned in the Rebellion, and Barristan served Robert faithfully for fifteen years. Meanwhile, Tyrion was only a child when this betrayal and murder took place. If she can forgive Barristan, she can forgive Tyrion, I think. (It might not be easy, I grant.)

- exactly when did Varys plan all this ? And keep in mind Tyrion going postal means he has to disappear from the cozy world of KL...

He has to anyway. Tywin's very first reaction on seeing Tyrion is "Who released you from your cell?" and he answers his own question with his next breath: "The eunuch. I'll have his head for this." Once Varys agreed to help Tyrion escape, his fate was inevitable. But I think it was anyway, with Tywin in charge.

Tywinn was having fun with Shae theory makes plenty of sense:

- interrogating the whore - she might know about Tyrion/Sansa dealings re: Joffrey's murder

They just had a trial about that. She already gave her testimony. Interrogating someone after the trial, in your bedroom, in your bedclothes? That makes sense?

- it would be typical for Tywinn if he was to take over his son's woman as the ultimate humiliation, after Shae buries Tyrion at the trial

Doesn't seem typical to me. How is he going to humiliate Tyrion without humiliating himself, by revealing that he's a giant hypocrite? Is that typical of Tywin?

- all Lannister men have female issues; why not Tywinn ?

Well, he was totally in love with Joanna and has never remarried, to begin with. So in this, he's already quite like Jaime. (Luckily Joanna wasn't like Cersei.)

- Shae's smile and "milord?" when she wakes up. That doesn't sound like "I was drugged and I have no idea what I'm doing here" does it ?

The theory doesn't really require her to be drugged, though.

- even Cersei didn't know she was in the room. Tywinn likes to keep his secrets.

Yes, but this is again begging the question. It makes sense either way that Cersei wouldn't know this.

[starki]

Then have Varys get her in through the front door, in plain sight of the guards. No skin off my back. It’s a decision that has little impact on the claim that Varys planned this, drugged Shae, and poisoned Tywin. In the 2009 discussion (linked early in this thread) that is the version I defend.

Please read teh thread. I have explicitly claimed several times that Varys does indeed have no such idea, and the theory doesn’t need it.

And yet it worked. He could have concocted a thousand other ruses.

And he forces Varys to do that how? On a few hours notice? In a ruined harbour? Did Jaime walk Varys down there, at sword point? I cannot picture that part of the explanation at all.

The theory indeed crucially posits that Tyrion will become Dany’s advisor, a board theory that is many, many years old. If you don’t buy that, the theory is indeed difficult to accept.

From the moment Tyrion set foot in Kings Landing in the beginning of Clash. Two book’s time. Tyrion going postal does indeed terminate Varys’s time at King’s Landing. Your explanation needs to argue why Varys – provided he didn’t want this – agreed with Jaime’s plan. As soon as Jaime left Varys and Tyrion in the tunnels (which makes no sense at all under your theory) Varys could have just killed Tyrion (or left him to rot in the cellars), or re-imprisoned him, and told Tywin all about it, securing eternal fame and glory in the Red Keep. Pray, why didn’t he do that? There was certainly no threat from Jaime anymore?

(Answer: because this was Varys’s plan all along. Jaime has nothing to do with it. Varys wants Tyrion to go postal. It’s the whole point of the exercise.)

I can't imagine Varys not having a ship or two ready to sail at any notice, if not when Joffrey was killed, maybe since when KL was attacked in CoK ?

That's right, I don't buy Tyrion will be her advisor. Not when Barristan Selmy or anyone else points out to Daeny: "Khaleesi ? Er, this is a Lannister. They sold out your family, and killed your father. They helped to virtually wipe out the Targaryens."

No. If - and that's a big if - Varys did plan this, it would be since Joffrey's wedding. Since Tyrion until then is in no danger to be executed and thusly is in no need of Varys' assistance to flee. And that's precious little time to have 1) Shae in Tywinn's bed at the perfect time and place for Tyrion to see, 2) to be "caught" by Jamie at the perfect timing, 3) making sure Tyrion gets up the ladder, 4) counting on sheer luck Jammie mentions Tysha thus ensuring no. 3 5) poison Tywinn so he is on the toilet that very night and less able to defend himself/call for aid etc.

Why would Varys kill Tyrion, or re-imprison him, and tell Tywinn ? That makes no sense at all. And there's plenty of a threat since Jamie knows all about this plan...Varys may be a lot of things but a double murderer isn't one of them. Jamie has plenty to do with it since his Tysha bomb puts Tyrion on the ladder in the first place.

If Varys wants Tyrion dead and stay in KL, the easiest choice of action would be to lay low until the verdict comes and Tyrion goes on the Wall (provided of course Cersei goes along with Tywinn's plan). No need for elaborate schemes, and putting his neck on the line.

[Little Grandfather]

If the room with the Dragon Mosaic was the only one illuminated by a Torch and the others were all in darkness... why would Varys need to blindfold Shae? No point blindfolding someone if there's nothing to see.

It would seem that quite a few of the tunnels were lit.

[starki]

We don't really know they were mocking Tywin, to be fair. I decided to go look up the relevant bit for below, so here's the passage where the guards talk:

This is an unspecified distance from the door into the bedchamber. So, even if we assume that Shae was brought in by the front door, they may be some distance from where Tywin is. And if she wasn't, and the conversation's just a coincidence (plausible, I think) they're not even talking about Tywin.

I'm going to quote again: the whole section is too long, but do reread it. There's a description of the room, with mosaic and brazier and doors and all, and then Tyrion realises that:

And he does.

Does that mention of 'your lord father's bedchamber' really read like a warning? It comes before Tyrion's intent is clear. The explicit warnings Varys does give are interesting. He makes it very clear that the most likely outcome of Tyrion going up that ladder is that both of them will die. But if he's really worried about that, why doesn't he simply refuse to give the directions? They're quite detailed: there's no way Tyrion could have found his way without them. Tyrion clearly doesn't threaten him physically: and besides, only a page earlier, Varys had noted that "If you slay me here, I fear for you, my lord. You may never find your way back to daylight."

So Varys isn't afraid of what Tyrion might do if he refuses to give the directions, but he is claiming to be afraid of what might happen if he does give out the directions. Yet, he coughs them out - under protest, maybe, but it's not really the strongest protest I've ever read. And why protest when you can refuse?

It's not conclusive - I've said that already - but the conversation seems a bit off to me.

If Shae was brought in the front way, then of course they did. But with the trial, it's at least plausible that they just happened to be talking about her.

I'd have to say, though, that if she was brought in the front way, it's interesting that they don't seem surprised. Even if Tywin was widely known to be a hypocrite about whoring (and we really only have one other hint of this), this would seem to be a big change from his usual MO, as I noted above. But then, maybe they've discussed that already.

True.

Uh, what do you suppose Tywin was going to do after this father-son chat? Wish Tyrion good luck with the escape?

One thing we can say with certainty either way: the moment Tyrion decided to go up that ladder, the die was cast. Either he was going to die, or Tywin was.

Yes, and Varys just happens to have one handy.

Jorah Mormont fought for Ned in the Rebellion, and Barristan served Robert faithfully for fifteen years. Meanwhile, Tyrion was only a child when this betrayal and murder took place. If she can forgive Barristan, she can forgive Tyrion, I think. (It might not be easy, I grant.)

He has to anyway. Tywin's very first reaction on seeing Tyrion is "Who released you from your cell?" and he answers his own question with his next breath: "The eunuch. I'll have his head for this." Once Varys agreed to help Tyrion escape, his fate was inevitable. But I think it was anyway, with Tywin in charge.

They just had a trial about that. She already gave her testimony. Interrogating someone after the trial, in your bedroom, in your bedclothes? That makes sense?

Doesn't seem typical to me. How is he going to humiliate Tyrion without humiliating himself, by revealing that he's a giant hypocrite? Is that typical of Tywin?

Well, he was totally in love with Joanna and has never remarried, to begin with. So in this, he's already quite like Jaime. (Luckily Joanna wasn't like Cersei.)

The theory doesn't really require her to be drugged, though.

Yes, but this is again begging the question. It makes sense either way that Cersei wouldn't know this.

Tywinn would probably call for help but it's doubtful he knows of the ladder. And if Tyrion wounds him and disappears, he probably won't be busy looking at the fireplace...since he clearly has no idea where Tyrion came from.

Extra "interrogation". Shae's reaction does seem to indicate Tywinn did bed her. He obviously won't know Tyrion is about to find out, but I'd say one of the absolute largest humiliation of a man is to take his woman. And Tywinn is all about humiliating Tyrion.

I don't deny he loved his wife. I am saying with his cruel behaviour with Tysha, and Shae (a whore, and he allegedly hates them) being in.his.bed, yes, he has some issues. Just like Jaime or Tyrion.

True. Then again I never believed Shae is drugged, since her reaction doesn't support it.

[Datepalm]

If the room with the Dragon Mosaic was the only one illuminated by a Torch and the others were all in darkness... why would Varys need to blindfold Shae? No point blindfolding someone if there's nothing to see.

It would seem that quite a few of the tunnels were lit.

The blidfold slip could have been accidental, and then Varys works back from it to decide where exactly to leave lit when he's breaking Tyrion out. Really, I think its almost possible to put the beginning of the plan, from Varys POV, wherever you like - he could be planning it since the first time he laid eyes on Shae, he could have cobbled it together that afternoon when Tywin asks him to deliver Shae and Jaime jumps him - in this case all he does is poison Tywin (and possibly Shae) and move a box.

[Dragonfish]

Tyrion is not yet sundered from his family completely. Remember, after Joffrey's death, Tommen is on the throne. And Tyrion loves Tommen. For that matter, Tommen loves Tyrion, and there's genuine love between Myrcella and her uncle as well. To break those bonds, and have Tyrion act against Tommen's interests, it's necessary to have him do something unforgivable - actually do it, not be framed for it. I can't see that any amount of public condemnation would achieve that.

I don't see why liking Tommen and Myrcella would have prevented Tyrion from siding with Dany. Does he like Tommen and Myrcella any less after killing his father?

I think the events of the trial were enough to make him join Dany. The whole affair just embittered him even further, because the entire realm, whom Tyrion believes he saved during the Battle of the Blackwater, scorned and mocked him. The woman he naively thought had feelings for him turned against him, and provided new fodder for the realm to mock him. He was even shunned by practically everyone in his family, including Kevan, whom he actually liked. And the only other person who was on his side during the whole affar, Jaime, essentially twisted the knife by telling him about Tysha, and by asking Tyrion if he actually killed Joff (which, IIRC, hurts Tyrion, because his brother doesn't necessarily believe he's innocent). All of these things were sufficient to make Tyrion want to turn against his family, in my view, and none of them occurred because of Varys.

But we don't assume it. If we believe he's the Hand that built the tunnel, then that demonstrates it. In fact that piece of information serves no other purpose.

We have no reason whatsoever to think that he might behave this way - except that it makes the 'anti-theory' about him being a hypocrite work. But that's begging the question.

And if all you saw were Tyrion's actions with regard to his hiding Shae, you'd assume that he was always careful about this sort of thing. Then you'd be proved wrong when he decided to screw all the secrecy and ride right to Shae's manse. Now, we of course know that this sort of "screw the secrecy" thing is totally in Tyrion's character, because we see inside his head. But we never see inside Tywin's head; indeed, we only ever see him from Tyrion's and Jaime's perspectives. So it's possible, to my mind, that he would act this way if he had just spent two years in the field, especially if it was this specific whore that he wanted.

Now, is any of this proof that he would act this way? Of course not. I've never claimed it was. All I've ever said is that Tyrion's actions are an example, an illustration, of how people are not always consistent in their actions. We really know very little about Tywin, other than what others think about him. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Tywin saw Shae, decided he wanted her, then went about getting her in some ill-advised manner (either by getting Varys to bring her through the secret passage, or getting his guards to bring her through the front door). It certainly wouldn't be the first example of someone doing stupid things out of love (or in this case, lust).

What if Tywin was replaced by a Faceless Man, and isn't actually dead now? So long as we're playing 'what-if'.

Wow, this is snippy. I'm trying to argue in good faith, but I guess it's easier for you to be patronizing.

HE has done a list above of the coincidences and unlikely occurrences. To recap:

1. Varys decides to reveal the existence of the secret entrance to Tyrion.

2. When he does so, Shae's blindfold just happens to slip in a lit room with a distinctive mosaic.

3. Varys happens to get caught cold by Jaime on the night that Tyrion is to die. Handily, he has a ship ready. He co-operates despite knowing that this will mean the loss of his position at court and perhaps his life. He continues to co-operate even after the threat of violence is lifted.

4. Tyrion's route out of the Red Keep happens to pass through that very identifiable room, which is again lit. (Remember, no-one goes down there but Varys.)

5. Varys reminds Tyrion that his father is up the ladder. ('Your father's bedchamber, now.')

6. Varys tells Tyrion the exact route from the mosiac room to the bedchamber, after not-exactly-intense questioning and a token protest.

7. There's a chest under the exact weapon Tyrion needs to even the odds against his father.

8. Tywin is not in his bedchamber, so Tyrion has a chance to arm himself and catch his father helpless.

Some are more unlikely than others - I have a particular problem with 3. and 6. Taken together, they're not conclusive - but not easy to dismiss, I'd suggest.

1. I forget, how did this happen again? I don't have my copy of ACOK handy. Did Varys place Shae in the bedchamber without Tyrion asking?

2, 4, 7, and 8 I chalk up to plot convenience.

5. I don't see this as a coincidence. Tyrion refers to it as his bedchamber, but it's not. Varys reminds him of this.

3. As I've said before, Varys probably always had a ship ready in case he needed to make a quick getaway. If you were a member of the Small Council planning on usurping the current people in power with another monarch, wouldn't you make sure you had a quick getaway in case you were found out? As for why he cooperates after Jaime is gone, it's because it's in his interest: he wants Tyrion to go to Dany.

6. This one is admittedly hard to reconcile. I was tempted to chalk it up to plot convenience, but decided against it for some reason. The only thing I can think of is that Varys doesn't want to do anything to poison Tyrion against him, because he wants Tyrion to take his offer to go to Dany. Yes, it's a bit feeble, but no more feeble than Varys' plan relying on Jaime telling Tyrion about Tysha, which you've admitted is a weak point in the theory.

[Nukelavee]

I still think the "your father's bedchamber" is as possibly a cautionary statement, rather than a goad.

It could be either, it depends on whether you support the "plan" or not.

Like I said - it's not so much that Varys didn't have a plan with the goals Ent treasures...it's that I think Ent's construction is too elaborate and stretches back too far.

Start with Varys having to make a fast choice and improvise after Oberon's death...drop the drugging of Shae/Tywin (haemeroids or cheese, my favourite possibilities, :) ), ignore some ofthe other "cute" details, and, sure, I can see it.

Starki- srry, I meant "not only" does she say m'lord, she also fakes tears right away, not really the kind of thing a stupour leaves you capable of thinking of. A good hangover might result in waking up crying, but...:)

[Datepalm]

I still think the "your father's bedchamber" is as possibly a cautionary statement, rather than a goad.

It could be either, it depends on whether you support the "plan" or not.

Like I said - it's not so much that Varys didn't have a plan with the goals Ent treasures...it's that I think Ent's construction is too elaborate and stretches back too far.

Start with Varys having to make a fast choice and improvise after Oberon's death...drop the drugging of Shae/Tywin (haemeroids or cheese, my favourite possibilities, :) ), ignore some ofthe other "cute" details, and, sure, I can see it.

Well, the idea is still that Varys manipulates the situation, or theres no theory. I mean, its possible that everything was coincidence - Tywin is on the loo cause of cheese, Shae is in there becuase thats how Tywin likes it, theres a box under the crossbow becuase thats medieval interior decorating for you, and Varys knows all of this and overhearing Jaimes Tysha story it suddenly occurs to him, hey, stick Tyrion into that room and someone is ending up dead, and so he makes a point of leading Tyrion past a spot he knows he'll recognize and helps trip off the chain of thought that leads him up there.

If thats what happens though, why include it at all? Lets look at it from a narrative/story telling sort of perspective a sec, becuase I think we may have exhausted the possible plot permutations - GRRM needs Tyrion to kill Tywin, both as a character thing and for plot purposes to get him to Dany. He could do this without Varys involvement - everything goes down as it does, except Tyrion genuinely overpowers Varys or something. But lets assume that Varys really did do it, to some significant extent - planted Shae, poisoned Tywin, etc. Why? What does this add to the story? It dosen't exculpate Tyrion, the character arc is still what it is, it dosen't do very much to the Varys/Tyrion relashionship. The only purpose I can think of is that Tyrion eventually finds out Shae was a plant and that changes...something, purely internally. All of the plot purposes of the scheme can be achieved without their being a scheme.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

Why? What does this add to the story? It dosen't exculpate Tyrion, the character arc is still what it is, it dosen't do very much to the Varys/Tyrion relashionship.

Yes. That.

[Datepalm]

Yes. That.

But...but...I do think there is a scheme. It is suspicious. A book or two down the line, Tyrion/someone else/we readers discover Varys had a hand in creating the whole situation that led him to kill Tywin. What is this development good for?

[Dragonfish]

I posit that Varys can kill anyone he wants. He is the master of spies. He has tunnels in the entire castle. Even if Tywin found the entrance to the bedchamber (remember that Tyrion didn't, after the existence of some secret entrance was revealed to him), and vacated the premises, possibly burning down the Tower of the Hand. Varys controls little birds, possibly servants, guardsmen.

But, yes, it's a risk. Varys severely reduces his chances for killing Tywin. From absolute certainty (by visiting him in the night and slitting his throat, which he could have done anytime) to difficult but doable (using any other assassination scheme, such as death by lemoncake or whatever strikes GRRM's fancy). He accepts this risk for the unique chance of having Tyrion kill Tywin.

Remember, this is not a needlessly convoluted plot to kill Tywin. It's a minimally convoluted plot to make Tyrion sever his ties to House Lannister.

I think you're exaggerating Varys' ability to kill Tywin once Tyrion is (hypothetically) overcome by Tywin and recaptured. Tywin would have had the entire castle locked down, posted guards in his own chambers from then on, and would probably have gotten taste-testers as well (because if Varys was behind Tyrion's escape, then he may very well have been behind Tyrion's poisoning of Joffrey). Varys would also have been declared a traitor, and a reward for his capture may have been sent out. This would make any attempt on his part to get someone else to kill Tywin difficult, because anyone he tries to hire might betray him instead, in hopes of getting a reward. In short, the night Tyrion escapes is probably Varys' last shot to kill Tywin.

Now, why would he risk blowing his last chance to kill Tywin, all so he can make sure that it's Tyrion who does the deed? The only added benefit, according to you, is that it makes Tyrion want to betray his family and side with Dany. But here's the thing: how does Varys know that Tyrion isn't in the right mind yet to join Dany? How does he know that Tyrion still needs to have killed his father in order to be willing to fully break with his family? As far as Varys knows, Tyrion's already prepared to turn on his family due to the events of the trial. And even if he's not fully there, he could potentially be coaxed into that state of mind. In other words, even if Tyrion himself doesn't kill his father, there's still a chance that he could be convinced to join with Dany, as far as Varys is concerned.

So, to recap, Varys has two goals, according to your argument: kill Tywin, and get Tyrion in a state of mind in which he'd be willing to side with Dany. According to you, he achieves both by manipulating Tyrion into killing Tywin. But the thing is, by going for such a plan, Varys risks losing both goals. With Tyrion captured he can't join Dany, and with Tywin alert to Varys' betrayal he won't likely get another shot at Tywin. He risks losing all of this, just so he can put Tyrion in a state of mind in which he'd be willing to side with Dany, even though, as far as Varys is concerned, Tyrion might already be in that state of mind? It just strikes me as an incredibly risky plot, with very little benefit.

[Datepalm]

So, to recap, Varys has two goals, according to your argument: kill Tywin, and get Tyrion in a state of mind in which he'd be willing to side with Dany. According to you, he achieves both by manipulating Tyrion into killing Tywin. But the thing is, by going for such a plan, Varys risks losing both goals.

Hardly. All Varys needs to do is be right behind Tyrion, which I have no doubt he was, listening in. If Tyrion chickens out or misses the shot or whatever, Varys needs exactly half a minute to step out and do the deed himself. No risk, really. (and if Tyrion does flub it, he learns that he's not all that useful to him, maybe, and can make the decision then whether to kill him on the spot or let him get lost in the tunnels or whatever.)

ETA - hell, Tywin might be walking dead already. All Varys needed to do was give him some slow acting poison that takes a few days. Even if Tyrion gets himself dramatically killed trying to do Tywin in, Tywin would still die a bit later. (Though admittedly that dosen't fit with the fact we have already seen an appropriate poison and it dosen't seem to be fatal, but as HE is fond of pointing out, chemistry and biology in Westeros do exactly what GRRM wants them to do.)

[Morrigan]

I don't understand why Tyrion needed to kill Tywin in order for him to want to go to Dany. Why wouldn't the fact that he's been accused of regicide and kinslaying, and thus shunned by the entire kingdom, be reason enough?

No kidding, it's a complete non-sequitur.

The point is that Tyrion's motivation for going up to Tywin's room is to ask him about Tysha. Had Jaime not confessed what really happened, then Tyrion may not have gone up there. Thus, Varys' plan possibly falls apart unless he somehow knows that Jaime will reveal the truth about Tysha.

Exactly. Not only he "may" not have gone up there, in fact, he really has NO reason to climb up the ladder.

There are FAR too many impossible points on that chain for it to be as long asyou seem to like it to be. Now, if you simply said "Varys improvised when Jaimie showed up, and took a super long shot", I could see it being a possiblity.

Agreed. He didn't plan for this. But perhaps he overheard the conversation with Jaime, and when he realized Tyrion really wanted to go see his father above, he figured it was to kill him and gambled by helping him with that by giving the directions. That, I could accept, though it's a risky gamble.

But the fact remains that without Jaime revealing the truth about Tysha, Tyrion has NO motive to climb the ladder, and so the whole "Varys planned the whole thing" theory crumbles to pieces.

And if the theory suggests that not only Varys planned everything, but he planned it from long ago, that's even more ridiculous, sorry.