Varys has brought Shae to Tywin via the secret passageways!

[Happy Ent]

Btw - Dunno about that Widow's Blood toxin...I mean, his bowels DID release, no?

Now we are discussing the effects of a fictional poison! I promised myself to be strong this time!

But then, men ever make follies out of their principles when they stand on the precipice of desire. For what is discourse, if not the violation of another mind's protections? Only after the silken shift is rent, and the last cry has become a whimper, can the sound of wisdom be heard again. Only when it is too late. — Mogawemba, Third Argument

Speculation: Widow's Blood stops working at the time of death. The effect is to make it physically impossible to release (by cramping the necessary muscles) while making it psychologically impossible to leave the toilet because release seems imminent. Any. Second. Now.

As I've said, I have experienced very similar effects after something mundane as binge drinking. (Cheap fertiliser, if you must know.)

When Tywin dies, the nerves finally allow his muscles to release, and the described effect comes to pass.

Without something like that you have to explain why Tywin, obviously in the need of release, had not yet shat. What was he doing on the loo?

[Dragonfish]

No. But is he now irrevocably sundered from them? Yes.

Before, he could have denied, quite truthfully, that he had killed Joff: and they despised Joff, so they might have been willing to listen, if Tyrion could find some evidence. Could he have done this? Maybe not, but he would have at least had that hope.

Now, Tyrion knows that he is a patricide. He will never even try to return to his family, because he feels - he is - genuinely guilty.

Ok, I get where you're coming from. But what I still don't get is how Varys would understand Tyrion's state of mind so well that he would hatch a scheme like this just to push Tyrion a little more firmly into betray-my-family territory. We the readers might say that Tyrion wasn't ready to side with Dany until he knew he was actually guilty of patricide, but we the readers can see directly into Tyrion's head. How exactly does Varys know, without seeing inside Tyrion's head?

Why on earth would it be this specific whore that he wanted?

Again, you could say the same of Tyrion. He went to so much trouble to hide one specific whore, when he had a whole secret tunnel leading to a brothel at his disposal. Why would he go to so much trouble for one whore? Because she was the whore he wanted.

No, this isn't evidence of anything but what Tyrion would do. But again, I'm just using him as an illustration, not proof. I guess all I'm trying to do is explain why the apparent inconsistencies in Tywin's behavior don't really bother me, because I can conceive a scenario in which he'd act that way. But you're right, I have nothing from the books that demonstrates this, so there's no way left to argue this point.

Sorry. It was meant to be funny, rather than snippy. The point is, if we're at the stage of involving characters that have no textual connection with the events to explain things, we're not far off crackpot territory.

Well, it was mostly the dismissiveness of the comment that bothered me. I don't think my Ser Ilyn proposal is comparable to a random Faceless Man theory. Ser Ilyn is not only in Lannister employ, but is also the perfect go-to for tasks requiring discretion (and is indeed used for just such a purpose in AFFC), while we have literally no reason to suspect any Faceless Men are in King's Landing. But yes, there's no textual evidence for this either, so once again there's little to argue.

Why did Tywin never marry again? He must have been relatively young when his wife died. Marriages are serious affair among the nobility. They create by far the strongest alliances. As such it is almost his duty to marry again in order to secure an alliance with some other house. This suggests that he was emotionally incapable to be with a new woman after the death of his wife. Including also whores ans mistresses.

I could see Tywin never remarrying because he could never have an emotional connection to another woman like he did with his wife ("when the sun has set, no candle can replace it"). But I don't see how this scenario precludes him satisfying his sexual needs with whores. Those two things are reconcilable, methinks.

[mormont]

Ok, I get where you're coming from. But what I still don't get is how Varys would understand Tyrion's state of mind so well that he would hatch a scheme like this just to push Tyrion a little more firmly into betray-my-family territory. We the readers might say that Tyrion wasn't ready to side with Dany until he knew he was actually guilty of patricide, but we the readers can see directly into Tyrion's head. How exactly does Varys know, without seeing inside Tyrion's head?

This is a reasonable point. The only answer is the same one that HE gives for the effects of the poison: authorial fiat. He had Varys surmise, and surmise correctly.

Again, you could say the same of Tyrion.

You could, and if you did, you would have large chunks of Tyrion's POV chapters going right back to AGOT to answer it. We know that Tyrion often finds that even whores are repulsed by him. We know that Shae is unusual in that she is not, or is able to hide it sufficiently well to make him believe she is not. We know Tyrion uses whores for emotional comfort as much as physical relief, and that he has from the start demanded such comfort (as well as exclusivity) from Shae. We know that he has gradually developed feelings for her and started to hope that those feelings are genuinely reciprocated, against his better judgment. It makes sense, in the light of all these factors, that he'd do stupid things for Shae.

We know nothing like this about Tywin - in fact we can say with confidence that many of these things don't apply in his case. Tywin could have any whore he wanted, if he chose. He doesn't have an emotional dependence on Shae. He has had no opportunity to develop one. We have no reason to suspect that there's any other motivation that draws him specifically to Shae, so strongly that he would actually have her brought to his bedchamber in the Red Keep, which we agree is a very out-of-character thing for Tywin to do on any analysis of his character. Without a reason to believe this, can we really credit arguments based on the assumption that it's true?

[Xenophon]

We know nothing like this about Tywin - in fact we can say with confidence that many of these things don't apply in his case. Tywin could have any whore he wanted, if he chose. He doesn't have an emotional dependence on Shae. He has had no opportunity to develop one. We have no reason to suspect that there's any other motivation that draws him specifically to Shae, so strongly that he would actually have her brought to his bedchamber in the Red Keep, which we agree is a very out-of-character thing for Tywin to do on any analysis of his character. Without a reason to believe this, can we really credit arguments based on the assumption that it's true?

Can we really say that it's very out of character for him to want to sleep with Shae? We don't really know all that much about his private life. I agree there don't seem to be many hints that he would want to do so, but I don't think we know enough to say the opposite is true either, that is, that it clearly goes against his character to bring Shae to his room, as you seem to be suggesting.

If I understand your argument correctly, the main hints that it is out of character for him to have Shae in his bedchamber are 1) he seems to despise whoring, and 2) he has no particular reason to desire Shae out of all the whores in KL. Am I missing something?

Neither of those seem decisive to me. It seems plausible that he is somewhat hypocritical about whores, and that he wants to sleep with Shae as a final triumph over his son. On this reading, it wouldn't matter if Tyrion never found out. Tywin would just be proving to himself how utterly he's defeated his son, as the woman Tyrion let himself believe loved him shows herself to be nothing more than a common whore. Note: I'm not saying this is the most likely account, just that I don't see how you can dismiss it as out of character. Given the sadistic sexual punishment he inflicted on Tysha, it doesn't seem wildly out of character for him to want to create sort of perverse conclusion to Tyrion and Shae's relationship too. It could be that he's somehow jealous of even the false happiness Tyrion achieved with Shae, or perhaps he wanted to show her that a real Lannister man treats whores like objects, paying double and kicking them to the curb afterwards.

[Happy Ent]

If I understand your argument correctly, the main hints that it is out of character for him to have Shae in his bedchamber are 1) he seems to despise whoring, and 2) he has no particular reason to desire Shae out of all the whores in KL. Am I missing something?

1. He loved his wife.

2. He did not believe in half-measures. When his hairline began to recede, he shaved his scalp.

3. He exercises iron self-discipline.

These are among the first things we’re told about him.

[mormont]

Can we really say that it's very out of character for him to want to sleep with Shae?

We can certainly say that it's out of character for Tywin to have any whore brought to his bedchamber in the Tower of the Hand. Whether or not he uses whores, it's not contested that he is extremely concerned with both his personal dignity and the dignity of the office of the Hand of the King (at least so long as a Lannister holds it). Having assignations with whores in the Red Keep appears to me to be indisputably inconsistent with that.

Neither of those seem decisive to me. It seems plausible that he is somewhat hypocritical about whores, and that he wants to sleep with Shae as a final triumph over his son.

The former, maybe. The latter, I find incredible. For one thing, I can't seriously believe that Tywin would admit to himself that he was in any way in competition with Tyrion, in any way that mattered. Particularly in conjunction with the hypocrisy: there's a limit to how many unexpected twists in Tywin's character I can accept.

[Xenophon]

1. He loved his wife.

2. He did not believe in half-measures. When his hairline began to recede, he shaved his scalp.

3. He exercises iron self-discipline.

These are among the first things we’re told about him.

True, but a twist that he's also something of a hypocrite wouldn't be too shocking, IMO. He certainly seems to have been selectively blind when it comes to Jaime/Cersei. Also, when it comes to whoring, he seems far more concerned about the honor of his house than the actual activity itself. He's afraid Tyrion's whoring will be seen as ridiculous and pathetic; I wonder if he would care as much if, say, Jaime occasionally visited whores, since he wouldn't generally be seen as as pathetic (needing to pay for sex/affection).

We can certainly say that it's out of character for Tywin to have any whore brought to his bedchamber in the Tower of the Hand. Whether or not he uses whores, it's not contested that he is extremely concerned with both his personal dignity and the dignity of the office of the Hand of the King (at least so long as a Lannister holds it). Having assignations with whores in the Red Keep appears to me to be indisputably inconsistent with that.

I'm not so sure about that. If he used the secret passages, it might be safer to bring whores to him, rather than risk being seen going into a whorehouse.

The former, maybe. The latter, I find incredible. For one thing, I can't seriously believe that Tywin would admit to himself that he was in any way in competition with Tyrion, in any way that mattered. Particularly in conjunction with the hypocrisy: there's a limit to how many unexpected twists in Tywin's character I can accept.

I agree a genuine competition with Tyrion would probably be inconceivable to him. But some sort of twisted "I'm going to show this whore how a real Lannister man acts" motive doesn't seem crazy to me. Shae had taken advantage of Tyrion's emotions, and I could see Tywin viewing that as some sort of slight on his house than needed to be corrected.

Again, to be clear, I don't think there's much support for any of these theories. I just don't find them so implausible that a Varys conspiracy is more likely than the apparently straightforward interpretation that Tywin himself had Shae brought to his bedchamber.

[mormont]

Also, when it comes to whoring, he seems far more concerned about the honor of his house than the actual activity itself. He's afraid Tyrion's whoring will be seen as ridiculous and pathetic; I wonder if he would care as much if, say, Jaime occasionally visited whores, since he wouldn't generally be seen as as pathetic (needing to pay for sex/affection).

I totally agree that Tywin's not against whoring in general: he's only concerned about the honour of his House, it seems to me. So, I think it follows that he would indeed worry about Jaime visiting whores, if he was indiscreet about it.

I'm not so sure about that. If he used the secret passages, it might be safer to bring whores to him, rather than risk being seen going into a whorehouse.

We have no reason to think he even knows about the secret passage into his bedchamber, and I think there's quite a compelling reason to think that he doesn't - Tywin Lannister doesn't seem like the sort of guy who would trust anyone with a secret entrance to the place where he sleeps. Certainly not Varys, whose loyalties are not to House Lannister.

Besides, if we are to rely on the tunnel as evidence that he uses whores, then he should surely be using that?

In any case, it still doesn't work, for me. If Tywin is concerned with his honour, the honour of his House and the honour of his office, he should surely not be running any risk of being found with a whore in the Tower of the Hand. Remember, this is the Red Keep. Everyone knows that in the Red Keep, the walls have ears! And it's not as if Tywin would have had any trouble arranging a discreet assignation elsewhere.

I agree a genuine competition with Tyrion would probably be inconceivable to him. But some sort of twisted "I'm going to show this whore how a real Lannister man acts" motive doesn't seem crazy to me. Shae had taken advantage of Tyrion's emotions, and I could see Tywin viewing that as some sort of slight on his house than needed to be corrected.

Hmm... seems kinda stretchy to me. I still don't see any credible basis for psychological competition, and Tywin's 'lessons' are usually quite brutal. Shae shows no signs of fear. Are we to assume she was brought to his bed secretly, led to believe it would be for a professional assignation, and hasn't actually seen him yet? This is just what the 'planted Shae' theory suggests happened.

Again, to be clear, I don't think there's much support for any of these theories. I just don't find them so implausible that a Varys conspiracy is more likely than the apparently straightforward interpretation that Tywin himself had Shae brought to his bedchamber.

I'm not sold myself. But I do think that the 'apparently straightforward' interpretation becomes less so the closer you look at it.

[The Adventures of Bronn]

Didn't read all 7 pages so sorry if anything is repeated.

I always thought the Tywin-Shae scene was primarily to show that what Genna Lannister had said was always 100% true. Tyrion was Tywin's son. This was more punctuated by when Tyrion shoots his father and he is surprised and Tyrion uses the "I'm your writ made small line". They both have the same taste in women so it wouldn't be a surprise that Tywin would pick Shae. They of course had a chance to commiserate during the trial and surely private arrangements could have been made their without Cersei's knowledge.

I don't see how people could not think that they were not having sex. It seemed like he had just finished with her and she had drifted off to sleep while he went to use the privy. Remember being older, it takes a lot longer to get everything out so he was probably on there for a good 30 mins to 1 hour or more.

I mean Shae was naked and had Tywin's Hand necklace around, so obviously something had went on. Be kind of hard to smuggle someone in without Tywon noticing if it was all supposed to be a giant ruse.

As for Varys, I think he wasn't against the though of Tyrion going up there to confront his father. I remember the "No my Lord we have to leave, oh yes 53 rungs up and to your left" so on some level Varys didn't mind it happening. Then again could he have fortold Jaime would risk everything to come grab him and help set Tyrion free? He has birds but I don't think they are good enough to read someone's inner thoughts as I'm sure Jaime told noone else.

So could Varys have seen that all and had time to perfectly set up the chance for Tyrion to run into his father and Shae together? Were they together every night. You figure someone would have sold them out by then. It could be said Varys had some of the guards on payroll and knew but still it seems like a "perfect storm" scenario. He is one of the top 3 most clever men in all of KL but I just don't really know how much he could have had to do with this. Tywin mentioned several times he did not trust Varys one bit and had the "heads on spikes" commentary with his son that Varys would be top among them. Could you see him trsuting Varys with a secret that could undermine his honor and standing?

I am more inclined to believe the other theories that were suggested. Tywin used his personal household guards and noone else to smuggle Shae in and out of of the Tower of the Hand. Cersei was preoccupied with other affairs and would not notice something like this. Besides she would never think something like this of her father anyways.

[Happy Ent]

Didn't read all 7 pages so sorry if anything is repeated.

It is. I won’t do that as well, except for this:

I mean Shae was naked and had Tywin's Hand necklace around, so obviously something had went on. Be kind of hard to smuggle someone in without Tywon noticing if it was all supposed to be a giant ruse.

The opposite is true.

Shae had been naked, wearing the same outfit, and in the exact same bed before. Nothing had went on then; she had been smuggled there without Tyrion noticing. This is the last Tyrion chapter in Clash before the battle of the Blackwater. Varys had arranged her then, why shouldn’t GRRM use the symmetry of the scene to tell us that Varys has also arranged her now?

[AvengingAryaFan]

HE,

I've skipped from page 4, but at that point you assumed that Varys did not know about Tysha.

I think you've overlooked some further details. Datepalm mentioned, and it agrees with my recollection, that Varys was nearby (that sneak!) when Tyrion told Shae about Tysha.

Resourceful Varys is always on the lookout for manipulative levers. He had ample time to inquire of Jaime about the incident, knowing it to be a serious trauma for Tyrion, and lo, it's better than he could have hoped - HERE's the way to get Tyrion murderously furious at Tywin! So at a suitable time he strongly urges Jaime to tell Tyrion the truth. He's an accomplished liar and manipulator, and Jaime is pretty much an innocent in that respect, putty in Varys's hands.

Recall that Tyrion explicitly noticed that Jaime was telling him about Tysha reluctantly - that he was afraid? Jaime is busting his lil bro outa prison, and that should be reward enough, don't you think? In the face of his fear, what possessed Jaime to nonetheless open up a further can of worms by admitting his part in a brutal gang rape of the innocent girl that Tyrion loved and married? He must have been manipulated into making that revelation.

Also, IIRC Varys was quite close by while Jaime was telling Tyrion the truth, and Tyrion was fulminating afterwards. Minor point, but he established that things were going according to plan.

So I think your theory should prominently include the significant possibility that Varys actually engineered the devastating revelation of the truth of Tysha's gangrape by Tywin, rather than timidly attributing this to dumb luck. Like other aspects it isn't certain, but I think it has pretty good support - the unlikely coincidences that Martin allowed us to know that Varys was in a position where the spy could hear Tyrion's story to Shae, then Jaime inexplicably revealing the truth of that very matter to Tyrion at the precise moment it would do the most good - just before he was about to wander under the Tower of the Hand, and that Varys would have gone to the trouble of getting Shae into Tywin's bed.

After Shae publicly humiliated Tyrion it's unlikely that Tyrion still cares so much about her that her presence in his father's quarters would drive him to a killing frenzy; moreover, if Tyrion hasn't already made the effort to climb to the apartment then Shae can provide no motivation at all. Thus, Varys needed earlier motivation - and stronger, as well - to set Tyrion onto the path of the parricide. The Tysha story is too perfect, and too unlikely in the absence of manipulation, to have been delivered coincidentally. You of all people should have been skeptical that it was coincidence, given that your entire theory is based on showing that apparent coincidences in fact tell a coherent story.

So Shae's purpose was probably "belt and suspenders", a further lash to infuriate Tyrion and help push him over the edge. She doesn't seem a sufficiently powerful motivator to be the one Varys primarily relies upon. Shae was his best leverage at first - until she led him to the much more powerful leverage of the Tysha story.

Geez, I hope I remember correctly that Varys was at Shae's house just before Tyrion snapped and told her that story, but sorry, no time to look it up now.

[Datepalm]

Tyrion is at Shaes, being emo, then Varys shows up with bad news and its decided to move Shae into the castle, she gets all sulky and Tyrion hits her, and then he apologizes by way of telling her how he participated in the gang rape of his ex, so its ok. Varys waits about round the corner.

But...How does Varys know the real version of the Tysha story? Varys knows the version Tyrion knows - that she was a hooker. Jaimes story is a revelation to everyone, including the reader.

[Winterbane]

Whoa....

I just realized I think the timing works out for Alayaya to be Tywin's daughter by Chataya. I don't have time to explore that, but wanted to post it!

[mormont]

I'm not sure it does. Remember, Tywin resigned as Hand and left KL when Jaime was raised to the KG. That was at the time of the tournament at Harrenhal. Alayaya was born at least eighteen months later, if my rough calculation is correct.

[ishmael]

There's never any place at all in the novels where a man is judged unmanly if he doesn't sleep around. Robert is generally mocked as a whoremonger, and he's the king! Rather than a sign of masculinity, bedding whores and keeping mistresses on a string suggest you lack self-discipline and self-control. It's seen as a weakness in King Robert, it's seen as a weakness in Tyrion, it's a weakness in Walder Frey that makes people like him less -- no one goes on about how very manly and masculine the man is or was.

Tywin is extremely concerned with appearances. Having a mistress? It does nothing positive for him, and probably does the opposite especially as it'd invite comparisons to his weak father. So if he has an itch he needs to scratch, he does it, but he does it discreetly. No one says he denies himself things... but he's a man of iron discipline, and he indulges only as much as he needs, and no more.

Note that his big complaint, re: Tyrion, is actually not so much focused on Tyrion having appetites... but that he flaunts them, making a show of visiting brothels and paying for whores, etc.

It's all about appearances.

Robert, Tyrion, and Walder Fey are seen as being weak, but they are weak for more than just them liking sex. This is one of many vices of Robert that make it clear that he truely is not cut out to be the ruler. Fey is disliked for his treatemnt of everyone around him. This is not limited to the other Lords and Ladies, but is most striking in his treatemnt of his rather large family. Tyrion is really wrapped-up in the girlfriend experience since he lost his first love. His father is who gives him the most grief about his choices, and his response is to be somewhat more blatant with his actions, which in turn does cause some "quiet" laughing behind his back. But really, what more does everyone expect of him? Noone is really going to offer thier daughter as Tyrion's wife. Everybody looks the other way, because they don't expect him to be in a real relationship, nor do they really want thier daughter to be the object of his affection.

Tywin is concerned with appearances, but him being involved with someone following his wife's death would not be looked on as being a weakness. His father was involved with someone (maybe even multiple someones) while his wife was still alive. His father even went so far as to give all of his wife's possessions to his mistress when she died and allowed her to flaunt that he did.

Tywin would go to any length to avoid being viewed as a hypocrite. He would not want anyone to know or suspect that he was visiting whores after he has gives Tyrion such a hard time for the exact same thing. Having needs is not a weakness, but being a hypocrite would definately be a weakness.

[Dragonfish]

Recall that Tyrion explicitly noticed that Jaime was telling him about Tysha reluctantly - that he was afraid?

He was afraid because it's a horrible thing to have to admit to your brother that you were complicit in his wife's gang rape. Why do you think he was afraid?

Jaime is busting his lil bro outa prison, and that should be reward enough, don't you think? In the face of his fear, what possessed Jaime to nonetheless open up a further can of worms by admitting his part in a brutal gang rape of the innocent girl that Tyrion loved and married? He must have been manipulated into making that revelation.

IIRC, Tyrion first asks Jaime why he chose to bust him out, or something like that. Jaime then responds, somewhat cryptically, that there was a "debt" he owed him. Tyrion asks what this debt was, then Jaime reluctantly tells him. Most likely Jaime had wanted to tell him all these years, but the intimidation from his father and the fear of alienating his brother probably kept him from doing so. Long story short, this revelation makes perfect sense in context. I don't see how it requires Varys' manipulation in order to make sense.

Resourceful Varys is always on the lookout for manipulative levers. He had ample time to inquire of Jaime about the incident, knowing it to be a serious trauma for Tyrion, and lo, it's better than he could have hoped - HERE's the way to get Tyrion murderously furious at Tywin! So at a suitable time he strongly urges Jaime to tell Tyrion the truth. He's an accomplished liar and manipulator, and Jaime is pretty much an innocent in that respect, putty in Varys's hands.

This is the weakest part of your theory, IMO. In order for all of this to work, Varys has to know the true story of Tysha, yet we have no reason to suspect he does. Why would Jaime ever tell him the truth about the incident? We don't know that he's ever told anyone else about it, and I don't see why he'd think of Varys as the perfect confidant. Also, when would he have told Varys about the incident? Didn't Jaime arrive soon after Tyrion had been convicted? Or did he arrive soon after Joffrey's death? (can't remember, don't have my copy of ASoS with me). Either way, Jaime hasn't been in King's Landing for very long, yet somehow Varys manages to pry this super-important secret out of him that, for all we know, Jaime has never told anyone else about? Just doesn't seem plausible, IMO.

[metr0man]

Tywin sleeping with Shae seems perfectly in character. The most self-righteous (about sex, amongst other things) powerful men are ALWAYS hypocrites when it comes to sex. Almost always. The fact that he loudly denounces whores as beneath a Lannister... then snatching Shae up for himself, seems entirely completely realistic to me. That is how powerful people act in the real world.

[ishmael]

Clearly Varys did plan on Tyrion escaping, but it does not follow that he planted Shae and poisoned Tywin to get him on the privy. If Varys's plan was to get Tyrion to kill Tywin, he went at it the wrong way, because there are just too many variables for that plan to work. Not to mention, Tyrion's primary motive at that time is Jaime having revealed the truth about Tysha, which Varys could not possibly have known nor counted on.

I've always thought the whole scene was a little too convenient, but I never pictured it as being a very convoluted plan. Ent brings up a good point with the way Shae is found in this scene and how Tyrion found her in his room the night before the Blackwater battle. I see as Varys using the situations to his advantage and stacking the deck in his favor to get the best possible outcome. I'm betting he knew Shae was there and maybe even facilitated her being there and the outfit (Tywin new she was there and wanted her there. Why? I don't know, Tyrion is Tywin's true son as we heard from someone before). He released Tyrion and lead him through the hiden passages that would give Tyrion a choice: A) He could seek out his father and have a confrontation and Tyrion would be angrier when he found Shae in the bed or B) Tyrion wants to leave a quickly as possible. He then gets very lucky, and Tyrion and Jaime have their discussion about Tysha, and Varys thinks to himself that he has hit the jackpot. He then manipulates Tyrion just a little to steer him toward option A. He maybe could not have controlled all the variables present in some theories, but he only needed to control a few and let the chips fall where they will. No matter what happens, the Lannisters are even more destabilized.

[AvengingAryaFan]

He was afraid because it's a horrible thing to have to admit to your brother that you were complicit in his wife's gang rape. Why do you think he was afraid?

IIRC, Tyrion first asks Jaime why he chose to bust him out, or something like that. Jaime then responds, somewhat cryptically, that there was a "debt" he owed him. Tyrion asks what this debt was, then Jaime reluctantly tells him. Most likely Jaime had wanted to tell him all these years, but the intimidation from his father and the fear of alienating his brother probably kept him from doing so. Long story short, this revelation makes perfect sense in context. I don't see how it requires Varys' manipulation in order to make sense.

I appreciate your efforts to educate me, but I wasn't presenting questions as to what "apparently" happened. I've read the books, and I'm aware that everything seemed ... sort of reasonable when it happened. What I'm saying is that "sort of reasonable" is "sort of unreasonable" (like "mostly dead" means "partly alive"). That Jaime isn't likely to say - if he even realizes - that Varys manipulated him into telling Tyrion about Tysha. Why did Jaime decide to acknowledge and deal with this "debt" now, 16(?) years after the incident? Varys planting the idea in Jaime's mind that "I've felt guilty for years and now would be a great time to pay back for it" is manipulation, and a 'reason behind the reason', but it wouldn't make Jaime's stated reason untrue.

If Varys heard about this fraught issue of Tyrion's, he'd investigate. He might have gone to Jaime, he might have dug up some grizzled old veteran of the Lannister guard, but what I think is most likely is that he realized the truth from Tyrion's own description. Tyrion believed the lie because his trusty brother Jaime told it, but Varys is unlikely to draw the same rash conclusion. And the actual facts were right in Tyrion's story to Shae, albeit presented as "what I had been fooled into believing." However Varys uncovered the truth (deduction, investigation, confirmation, or some combination), it was then only a matter of deciding how and when to employ this nuclear bomb to drive Tyrion into a lethal killing rage.

We are allowed to see that Varys is near when Tyrion tells Shae his version of the Tysha tale. We see that Jaime is now, after 16(?) years, admitting this fact that he has never before been inclined to admit, a truth so awful it scares even him. But Jaime hasn't been motivated to think about and pay that debt for 16(?) years - why now?

Because Varys needed Jaime to tell Tyrion the truth just when it would do the most good. (If Jaime didn't cooperate Varys would have somebody else tell Tyrion, but it would be by far the most effective coming from Jaime himself.) So Varys arranged for somebody (possibly himself) to plant the idea in Jaime's mind of what a debt he owes to Tyrion in view of that appalling lie, and how springing him would be a good repayment, and (at some point, possibly later) oh by the way he'd feel so much better just getting the lie off his conscience by telling Tyrion the truth. Getting Jaime to insist that Varys spring Tyrion is a bonus.

Not only is this a LOT less convoluted, it resolves some motivational problems with the rest of the theory by which Varys-set-up-Tywin-on-the-shitter-then-Shae-in-the-bed-then-dwarf-suitable-weapons-in-dwarf-range-then ... and this is where it falls apart ... relies on Tyrion being sufficiently angry about having been wrongly convicted of regicide to go visit his father. Because until Tyrion went into the apartment, Shae was no motivation at all. No, Varys needed more certain fury so woozy Tyrion is likely to care sufficiently to risk his own escape just to go visit - kill - his father.

This is the weakest part of your theory, IMO. In order for all of this to work, Varys has to know the true story of Tysha, yet we have no reason to suspect he does. Why would Jaime ever tell him the truth about the incident? We don't know that he's ever told anyone else about it, and I don't see why he'd think of Varys as the perfect confidant. Also, when would he have told Varys about the incident? Didn't Jaime arrive soon after Tyrion had been convicted? Or did he arrive soon after Joffrey's death? (can't remember, don't have my copy of ASoS with me). Either way, Jaime hasn't been in King's Landing for very long, yet somehow Varys manages to pry this super-important secret out of him that, for all we know, Jaime has never told anyone else about? Just doesn't seem plausible, IMO.

We have no reason to suspect that Varys - Varys! - knows the details of an extremely juicy story regarding one of the most important people in KL (for purposes of his goals)? We have motivation: as HE says, Varys has been nurturing the Shae relationship for quite some time merely due to the leverage it might ultimately provide over Tyrion - how assiduously, then, would he pursue an even more powerful lever when it appears under his nose? We have opportunity: we know Varys, sneak that he is, probably heard about how upset Tyrion was about Tysha. We have the means: Varys has more methods of finding the truth than anybody in Westeros. In fact, we have specific interaction between Varys, a master manipulator, and the person most knowledgeable of the truth of the background on that matter (though I suspect he found out earlier, deducing it from the story itself or getting confirmation from some grizzled old Lannister guard - Varys is resourceful).

And he's smart: the most likely way Varys obtained the truth is by deduction from Tyrion's own story, as I explained above. He'd have confirmed it at least when using it to manipulate Jaime to take action.

Varys manipulating Jaime to feel he had a debt that should be repaid by springing Tyrion has two added advantages: first, it matches Jaime's story to Tyrion of why he's springing him; and second, it takes yet another aspect of the parricide out of the realm of "lucky coincidence" and puts it into the category of yet another satisfying aspect of the One True Theory. Lucky coincidence that Jaime felt sufficiently indebted to Tyrion for some unknown reason to treasonously spring him, after deciding to act honorably henceforth? Not very likely, is it? And just on general principles, assuming coincidence in a Martin book probably means you're missing something.

Having manipulated Jaime to intervene also explains why Varys was entirely prepared - when he heard Jaime scitching away he must have thought "Yes, I've got him!" It's hard to say who might have planted the idea in Jaime's mind that he owed a debt to Tyrion, a debt best repaid by letting him live (since he probably didn't kill Joffrey anyway!) Maybe Varys, more likely a proxy, in view of Jaime "forcing" Varys to help. It's also hard to say when Jaime was manipulated to tell Tyrion the truth about Tysha; it could have been before Jaime went to "force" Varys to help spring Tyrion, or during Jaime's visit, or afterwards. While Varys was bemoaning the awful blood from Jaime pricking his throat would have been a great opportunity to let Jaime feel guilty, hinting how much better he'd feel if he just got that whole Tysha lie to Tyrion off his chest, and what better time than when Tyrion would be deliriously grateful for being sprung? But resolving those minor logistics issues is well within Varys's ability.

[Happy Ent]

But...How does Varys know the real version of the Tysha story? Varys knows the version Tyrion knows - that she was a hooker. Jaimes story is a revelation to everyone, including the reader.

So then Varys planned to bring up the Tysha story (in the “old” version) while walking through the tunnels, mumble something about “Curious behaviour from your father. With him using hookers himself and all.”

“My father? Never.”

“Well, it so happens that he has one up his room right now!”

“Get out of here! How would you know that.?”

Varys crossed his arms under his bosom.

“The walls have ears, you know?”

–

Or a million other ways. My point is: it’s not important! At this point of the plot, Varys just needs to get Tyrion up to the room. He could tell him to fetch the car keys. It turned out that something better came along in the form of Jaime. But Varys cannot and need not have known. All we need to consider is if Varys’s behaviour so far has been consistent with him having a plan to make Tyrion kill Tywin. And I claim that there is strong evidence for that.