[ADwD Spoilers] Is the letter real?

[Bobbity]

I don't think that Jon is going to stay dead, so yes, let's talk about the letter.

I think that it's truthful, but to a point. There are too many unanswered questions still about that battle - did Theon's warning achieve anything, did the Seal lord's soldiers aid Stannis, how did Theon escape, etc. - too have it already over and done with by the time Jon gets down there. Admittedly, Stannis was defeated, and perhaps imprisoned, because the truth would be too bloody easy to discover, but I think that there are areas in which Bolton was not entirely truthful, or in which he at least held back the whole truth.

[Lyri]

First, I agree with those who think that Ramsey's letter reeks of desperation. If the letter is true, you don't send it by raven. You send it with an armed envoy along with Stannis' head (or maybe just his flayed face considering Ramsey is a Bolton), thereby proving you actually killed Stannis and are in enough control of the land to send out the envoy. An unsubstantiated claim sent by raven that you've killed the opposing leader along with strident demands for hostages would only get you laughed at and thought a fool. I think you'd only try that gambit if you had no other play.

Also, regarding the timing of Manderly's betrayal. Wyman was kissing up to the Bolton's and Frey's while waiting for his OWN son to be returned to him, not Rickon. He used Davos to "prove" his loyalty to the Iron Throne and then quietly sent Davos out to find Rickon, but once his son was safely home, Freys started getting baked into Traitor's Pies :) And of course Wyman only did it after the Freys were no longer guests.

Finally, there absolutely HAS to be a battle for Winterfell. Although Stannis has the fake Arya, the army is bogged down in deep snow, they have poor shelter, they are out of supplies and have eaten their horses and fished out the lake. There is no way they can march back to Torrhen's Square or anywhere else. If they don't take Winterfell, winter will defeat Stannis's army more thoroughly than Bolton ever could. So this confrontation must happen.

[Autumn Wind]

I think Stannis' host did lose in spectacular fashion in the battle for Winterfell.

1.

Much of them were weak (no food and no horse left)and the army at rest did not even have a proper palisade or sentry to screen (else Asha's men could not have been upon the middle of the camp unnoticed).

2.

Each side has a faction willing to defect. However, the Kastarks were in a better position to backstab since they were not suspected (Unlike Manderly who the Bolton and the Frey's were closely watching). They were also the best men left to Stannis since they had their own provisions so they can insist to be placed in key positions during battle: The easier to betray and cause confusion during the inevitable backstab.

On the other hand,

Manderly is bent on revenge for the North and the restoration of his liege. He cannot do so if he is dead. Kastark will have the chance to betray first and it will go downhill for Stannis from there. Manderly will not switch sides to help a King he has not allied with, especially when he sees the sorry state of Stannis' army. He will bid his time, continue to help Bolton and wait for a better opportunity.

I

Asha, Theon, Jeyne and the Banker: the warning is given but it is too little to late and the battle starts soon after. Sometime during the week-long battle they escape for Torrhen Square so Ramsey did not get them.

Mance Rayder: The squirrel or one of the spear wives was likely captured and tortured for the information about their mission. Rayder may have broken but he is alive and as Ramsey claimed.

Stannis: Is likely on the retreat with few remaining soldiers. (Experiencing the same march that LC Mormont and the surviving black brothers had to do after the fight with the Others. )

On the letter itself: All previous Bolton letters had the seal and approval of other northern lords. This one only had Ramsey's.

[alguien]

I think Jon getting stabbed may have saved him from falling into Ramsay's trap.

[illuminatia]

I think it's interesting that the letter asks Jon to "return my bride". Because Ramsay knew Arya was fake, but he also would know that Jon wouldn't know this. But if Jon actually had "Arya", he (and then the rest of the Wall and in time everybody) would know instantly she was fake. So why would Ramsay want her back then, if the lie was exposed? A Poole won't help any claim to Winterfell. He would have to pretend he didn't know about the switch just to keep his face. So why not write "Arya", "your sister" etc? By saying he wants his bride back, he's telling Jon he does not have his "sister", so why would Jon go to face Ramsay in Winterfell instead of first looking for "Arya"?

[Flou]

I think the letter is fake. Bolton's most likely lost the Karstarks before the battle even began because Stannis was told about their plans to deceive him. Manderlys and Freys were ordered to attack, I would imagine Manderlys turned on the Freys as soon as their host engaged Stannis's forces slaughtering them to the last man "the north remembers". How many men would Bolton have without the Umbers (I guess they will just watch), Karstarks, Manderlys and Freys? Cerwyn's, Tallhart's etc. aren't really all that loyal to him either. So Roose might have decided to just sit in Winterfell or fall back to Dreadfort with his men and most of the food leaving Ramsay in Winterfell. Or Roose might be lying in a pool of blood after Ramsay killed him as well...

Anyways, I don't think Martin would kill Stannis without actually showing us what happened through one of the two POV chars at his camp. So yeah, fake letter by very desperate and rapid Ramsay Bolton.

[bmulls]

The letter is Ramsay's last desperate ploy.

The Karstarks are literally toast, sacrificed to R'hollor. The Iron Banker remarks that he and his host reached Winterfell first, and they picked up Theon/Jeyne from the Umbers camped outside before finally finding Stannis. So we know that the Manderly/Frey expedition hadn't left Winterfell at this point, else they would have had to contend with the Umbers. We also know that Stannis was camped 3 days from Winterfell, so Stannis had at least 3 days between finding out about Karstark from Theon and the arrival of any Bolton force.

We also know that Stannis is not laying seige to Winterfell. Why would Ramsay demand hostages if he knew Jon would just find Stannis camped outside when he got there?

I think its most likely that Theon tells Stannis everything. Manderly orders the betrayal and the Frey army is smashed and the Frey lords are taken captive. Theon also confesses to Manderly/Stannis that Bran and Rickon are still alive, Manderly (and possibly Umber, depending on what happened outside of Winterfell) offer fealty to Stannis if he agrees to put a Stark back in Winterfell. The northmen Stannis picked up to free Arya stay on, agreeing to help Stannis until a Stark is back in Winterfell.

At this point, Stannis is sitting pretty. He doesn't need to assault Winterfell, he can retreat to Torrhens Square or Deepwood Motte and starve them out. Manderly tells Davos that he's been massing warships up the White Knife, which could be used to cut Winterfell off from everything.

The Bolton's are screwed. A good chunk of their army is gone in Manderly/Frey and the rest of the northmen left at Winterfell hate them. Stannis could easily march on the Dreadfort. The only help the Boltons might expect would be from the Lannisters in the Riverlands, but with Jaime MIA, Kevan remarks that that army is falling apart. The Iron Throne's fleet is on the other side of the continent dealing with the Greyjoys and the Tyrells and Tarlys refuse to leave Kings Landing.

Stannis could easily take Karhold as well and install the girl that Jon helped (forget her name atm).

I think a Jon+Wildings/Stannis/Manderly+Umber+Northmen alliance is shaping up.

[Slick Mongoose]

First, I agree with those who think that Ramsey's letter reeks of desperation.

Arf arf.

[nategator]

The letter is Ramsay's last desperate ploy.

The Karstarks are literally toast, sacrificed to R'hollor. The Iron Banker remarks that he and his host reached Winterfell first, and they picked up Theon/Jeyne from the Umbers camped outside before finally finding Stannis. So we know that the Manderly/Frey expedition hadn't left Winterfell at this point, else they would have had to contend with the Umbers. We also know that Stannis was camped 3 days from Winterfell, so Stannis had at least 3 days between finding out about Karstark from Theon and the arrival of any Bolton force.

We also know that Stannis is not laying seige to Winterfell. Why would Ramsay demand hostages if he knew Jon would just find Stannis camped outside when he got there?

I think its most likely that Theon tells Stannis everything. Manderly orders the betrayal and the Frey army is smashed and the Frey lords are taken captive. Theon also confesses to Manderly/Stannis that Bran and Rickon are still alive, Manderly (and possibly Umber, depending on what happened outside of Winterfell) offer fealty to Stannis if he agrees to put a Stark back in Winterfell. The northmen Stannis picked up to free Arya stay on, agreeing to help Stannis until a Stark is back in Winterfell.

At this point, Stannis is sitting pretty. He doesn't need to assault Winterfell, he can retreat to Torrhens Square or Deepwood Motte and starve them out. Manderly tells Davos that he's been massing warships up the White Knife, which could be used to cut Winterfell off from everything.

The Bolton's are screwed. A good chunk of their army is gone in Manderly/Frey and the rest of the northmen left at Winterfell hate them. Stannis could easily march on the Dreadfort. The only help the Boltons might expect would be from the Lannisters in the Riverlands, but with Jaime MIA, Kevan remarks that that army is falling apart. The Iron Throne's fleet is on the other side of the continent dealing with the Greyjoys and the Tyrells and Tarlys refuse to leave Kings Landing.

Stannis could easily take Karhold as well and install the girl that Jon helped (forget her name atm).

I think a Jon+Wildings/Stannis/Manderly+Umber+Northmen alliance is shaping up.

I agree the letter is bullshit mixed with truth but I think we're missing the purpose behind it. Remember, Ramsay manipulated his position from being caught literally with his pants down raping an innocent to the "trueborn" Lord of Winterfall. Although Theon was not the sharpest tool in the tool shed he was completely outwitted by Ramsay. This side of Ramsay Bolton has been less in play because Ramsay also in a compulsive sadist when he has the upper hand, but has enough "low cunning" to be a successful player when the chips are down.

So what's going on? Jon admits that part of the letter are probably true relating to Mance. Thus, the most likely circumstance is Mance talked, probably (although not necessarily) after some torture. So everything Mance knows Ramsay knows -- including that Jon is repopulating the Wall with wildings, the glowing sword, Jon's love for Arya, etc. Ramsay may even have insight into how Jon "ticks" as Jon has spent considerable time with Mance. This is especially because the only way Ramsay would know Jon actually gives a shit about Arya is because of Mance. After all, conventional norther wisdom (especially from a Bolton) would be that a base born Lord Commander of the Night's Watch would not violate tradition and oath over a true born half-sister.

Let's say that things have not been going well for Ramsay -- his father is dead and his allies do not want to follow the Bastard of Bolton so they're ready to give in to Stannis (Manderly has probably split with the Boltons at this point) Food stores are non-existent for Winterfell and winter has just hit, which makes supply lines next to impossible. What Ramsay needs is a reason to keep his Northern forces together or he is going to die. Even is Roose is alive and just wants to sue for peace with Stannis, Ramsay still dies since there is 0 chance Stannis would suffer a Ramsay to live. Also, Ramsay's trueborn status would be in question as, in Stannis's eyes, Ramsay Bolton was not raised by a true king and remains a bastard.

There are only two things presented that unite the North. The first is House Stark and the Boltons are fresh out of fake and real Starks. The second is hatred of the wildings. If Jon could have been induced to raise an army of wildings (especially since none of the Nights watch would have entered the field on such a political matter) then Ramsay could have hoped to keep the North together against this common foe. It would have also severly undermined Stannis and his allies politically. Unfortunately for Ramsay, there is another group of people who hate the wildings more than the Northern lords -- the Night's Watch -- and so the Watch will inadvertently doom House Bolton by their soft coup preventing Jon and the wilding army from entering the field.

So, to sum, Bolton having Mance is probably true (the letter is too detailed and well-directed to piss Jon off enough to do something stupid to be just from the spearwives). The rest are calculated lies designed to induce Jon to take the field with a bunch of wildings to help Ramsay and/or House Bolton politically because either his father's dead or is probably going to bend the knee to Stannis.

[Kaitscralt]

The letter is Ramsay's last desperate ploy.

The Karstarks are literally toast, sacrificed to R'hollor. The Iron Banker remarks that he and his host reached Winterfell first, and they picked up Theon/Jeyne from the Umbers camped outside before finally finding Stannis. So we know that the Manderly/Frey expedition hadn't left Winterfell at this point, else they would have had to contend with the Umbers. We also know that Stannis was camped 3 days from Winterfell, so Stannis had at least 3 days between finding out about Karstark from Theon and the arrival of any Bolton force.

We also know that Stannis is not laying seige to Winterfell. Why would Ramsay demand hostages if he knew Jon would just find Stannis camped outside when he got there?

I think its most likely that Theon tells Stannis everything. Manderly orders the betrayal and the Frey army is smashed and the Frey lords are taken captive. Theon also confesses to Manderly/Stannis that Bran and Rickon are still alive, Manderly (and possibly Umber, depending on what happened outside of Winterfell) offer fealty to Stannis if he agrees to put a Stark back in Winterfell. The northmen Stannis picked up to free Arya stay on, agreeing to help Stannis until a Stark is back in Winterfell.

At this point, Stannis is sitting pretty. He doesn't need to assault Winterfell, he can retreat to Torrhens Square or Deepwood Motte and starve them out. Manderly tells Davos that he's been massing warships up the White Knife, which could be used to cut Winterfell off from everything.

The Bolton's are screwed. A good chunk of their army is gone in Manderly/Frey and the rest of the northmen left at Winterfell hate them. Stannis could easily march on the Dreadfort. The only help the Boltons might expect would be from the Lannisters in the Riverlands, but with Jaime MIA, Kevan remarks that that army is falling apart. The Iron Throne's fleet is on the other side of the continent dealing with the Greyjoys and the Tyrells and Tarlys refuse to leave Kings Landing.

Stannis could easily take Karhold as well and install the girl that Jon helped (forget her name atm).

I think a Jon+Wildings/Stannis/Manderly+Umber+Northmen alliance is shaping up.

Why would Ramsay write a letter if things were going so perfectly for Stannis? There has to be some chance it will be believed, some nugget of truth in it even if the majority of it is untrue, otherwise why write it at all?

[Vikingkingq]

I think the deception is evident in the text if you think about it logically:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore. Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell. I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it. It was signed, Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

1. If Ramsay won, how did Theon and Jayne make their escape? They weren't in a fit state to escape an army in pursuit and Ramsay has to keep "Arya" near him to keep the Umbers and the other Northern Houses loyal. If Ramsay could find her, he would.

2. If Ramsay won, why send a letter that dares Jon to come south? Why not use "Arya" as a hostage to keep John at the Wall?

I think the more logical explanation is this: firstly, either Ramsay has a spy on the Wall or he put Rayder to the question. He revealed way too much - not just about the sword, and the red priestess, but the wildling princess and the child and the wife and daughter? That's too detailed for word to have spread so quickly.

Secondly, the purpose of the letter is to get Jon to come South - which would only make sense from Bolton's point of view if doing so might cause the Wall to break down into Southern/Night's Watch/Wildling fighting and provide a motive for Stannis to retreat from Winterfell.

[Kaitscralt]

Perhaps Ramsay is trying to instigate Jon into sending forces to rescue Mance, which would be a breach of the Night's Watch vows (well, so is helping Stannis, but this would be more literal). This way the head honchos of Westeros could legally take apart Jon's regime and put whoever they want in charge.

[nategator]

Why would Ramsay write a letter if things were going so perfectly for Stannis? There has to be some chance it will be believed, some nugget of truth in it even if the majority of it is untrue, otherwise why write it at all?

Because Stannis's biggest weakness in Northern politics is that he is a wilding apologist. The best way to freak the North out about Stannis's rule is to have an army of wildings marching into Northern territory.

95% of Westeros conflicts are decided politically, 5% through battles. Robb's failure shows that if you lose politically it doesn't matter what happens in the field.

[bens]

George just fixed the timeline, why would he do something like that? It makes no sense chronologically. Whatever Ramsay did, true or false, I think we won't see it now that we've read the letter.

The timelines have never lined up perfectly. The problem before was that different storylines were off by over a year from one another. Showing the battle or the immediate aftermath (more likely, IMO, since I doubt Asha in her chains or Theon participates in the battle, and it doesn't seem likely that we will get yet another new POV just to see the battle in TWOW) would only mean being off by a week or two at most.

I'm not sure the letter served any purpose. Everyone is acting as if Ramsay is plotting something. Why should we think that? He may well simply be desperate (following the loss of Jeyne and the likely Manderly betrayal) and decide to send a taunting letter because he is cruel and will soon die.

[Vikingkingq]

Perhaps Ramsay is trying to instigate Jon into sending forces to rescue Mance, which would be a breach of the Night's Watch vows (well, so is helping Stannis, but this would be more literal). This way the head honchos of Westeros could legally take apart Jon's regime and put whoever they want in charge.

Why would Ramsay care about the Wall?

And why would it be in Ramsay's interests to potentially have thousands of wildlings heading South after him unless getting Jon off the Wall sets the Wall to fighting and makes Stannis have to retreat to restore order?

[Galen M]

Perhaps Ramsay is trying to instigate Jon into sending forces to rescue Mance, which would be a breach of the Night's Watch vows (well, so is helping Stannis, but this would be more literal). This way the head honchos of Westeros could legally take apart Jon's regime and put whoever they want in charge.

yeah, but once Ramsay threatened to kill Jon, they were well within their rights to defend their LC in any way necessary.

[Jane Doe]

Is there any confirmation that Ramsay actually knew that Arya was fake? I doubt if Roose would tell him that.

[Kaitscralt]

Why would Ramsay care about the Wall?

And why would it be in Ramsay's interests to potentially have thousands of wildlings heading South after him unless getting Jon off the Wall sets the Wall to fighting and makes Stannis have to retreat to restore order?

Ramsay wouldn't, but I assume he occasionally takes orders from his pops, who takes orders from KL.

[Galen M]

Is there any confirmation that Ramsay actually knew that Arya was fake? I doubt if Roose would tell him that.

Well he had to know Theon would figure it out, and he had Theon "take care" of her plenty. I seem to also remember Ramsay silencing Theon when he was going to say something about her identity.

[Crow's Eye]

I tend to think the letter is at least some part BS. The fact that Reek demands Theon and Arya (by raven, immediately after the battle) calls into question why he thinks they could have already made it all the way back to the Wall. It's not like they escaped weeks before the alleged battle, right?

A more crackpot theory: Bowen Marsh and the other "senators" engineering the murder of their Ceasar probably needed something more than bad decisions to get other brothers to agree to it all. Letting the wildlings through wasn't a popular decision, but it was working out relatively well so far. What if Marsh and the others were involved somehow? After all, we didn't see the raven arrive, just that it was delivered to Jon by a brother. And it gives Marsh and the Senators the perfect reason to take Jon down - he is leading an army of wildlings south to attack Winterfell. What worse treason could a lord commander commit, absent conspiring with the Others? And they were SO ready to do it too - the decision was clearly made, and the correct brothers ready to go, when Jon stepped out of the hall.

How would Marsh & co know about Mance, Reek, et al? Who knows what Selyse knew at this point, and it could be that some brothers knew something was iffy. Why didn't anyone say "Whoa, Mance isn't dead?" when Jon read the letter? Unless they knew somehow already. Or Stannis could have sent a raven (maybe brought to him by the Banker) to the Wall to inform Mel, et. al. of certain happenings, which could have included info on Reek, Arya, etc. All the conspiring brothers had to do was forge a letter and present it to Jon.

Totally crackpot, I know. But something about the whole chapter just doesn't feel right.