[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff

[Geddus]

Certainly, the rebels or Tywin and his minions couldn't really tell one way or another, as they have never seen him. And Aerys didn't seem like a doting gramps who'd check on the kid often, either.

No, Tywin's men wouldn't know what Aegon looked like, no doubt about that. But there had to be someone at court who did, other than Elia... the Kingsguard and Elia's maids and servants, for example.

[Maia]

No, Tywin's men wouldn't know what Aegon looked like, no doubt about that. But there had to be someone at court who did, other than Elia... the Kingsguard and Elia's maids and servants, for example.

What Kingsguard? Only Jaime was there and Aerys kept him close. As to Elia's maids and servants, it would not be difficult to limit the number of those who'd interact with the baby to a few loyal souls, as certified by Varys, for a couple of weeks. Which was all they had after the Trident.

[Wouter]

It doesn't seem a complication for me, at least as far as moving the tale forward is concerned. Dany sucks as a ruler but her dragons are war machines. We are going to have a male and capable Targ in the throne probably as early as next book, freeing up way for Dany to fight against the impeding threat of the Others. There's the added drama of Dany being not anymore the legitimate Targ heir after all she did to get the throne, but she seems pretty OK with bloodlines and stuff since the first book, not to mention her low morale after completely failing Mereen.

People really are falling for Varys' ploy, are they? Dany may have done badly in ADWD, but IMO she will return to almost-Mary Sue status once Tyrion gets to be among her trusted advisors. I wonder if Aegon will be able to do all that much in Westeros - will Dorne support him? The Tyrells and the Lannisters both have reasons to fight him, even though they really distrust each other now, and the Tyrells alone have considerably more swords than the Golden Company. He has no dragons, not until Dany arrives and then - will the 'mummer's dragon' survive the 'slaying of lies'? Aegon is not meant to prosper in this story, I'm pretty sure of that. GRRM has pretty much telegraphed it in.

I'm predicting that if Dany really continues to feel she is not able to rule (and it is not just a phase of depression), she will hand power either to Jon or Tyrion at the end. Not to "Aegon".

I mean, if Jon were to discover who he was, so what? He doesn't have any power base for others to rally behind him at this point.

No? IMO, the north was pretty much eating out of his hand by the end of ADWD. If he gets resurrected quickly in TWOW, even with Stannis alive he will be de-facto king of the north IMO.

[TrackerNeil]

Here's what I don't get about the idea that Dany and Viserys were simply diversions to protect Aegon. Drogo knew who Daenerys was when he wed her, and I don't think he would have cared how much Targaryen blood Aegon had. Drogo was not going to let this boy from the Free Cities usurp the claim of the Stallion Who Mounts the World, which would set up a nice little war between Drogo's khalasar and the Golden Company before the Iron Throne has even had to call the banners in defense. That's one hell of a diversion.

[Geddus]

What Kingsguard? Only Jaime was there and Aerys kept him close. As to Elia's maids and servants, it would not be difficult to limit the number of those who'd interact with the baby to a few loyal souls, as certified by Varys, for a couple of weeks. Which was all they had after the Trident.

I'm not arguing about the possibility of swapping the babies, that could have been done easily enough; my point was that keeping Aegon's existence a secret would have been impossible because someone would have noticed that the dead baby wasn't him, had Clegane not been the horrible monster he was.

Of course it's possible that Varys only planned to smuggle the baby out and the secrecy was just an added bonus.

[cteresa]

Here's what I don't get about the idea that Dany and Viserys were simply diversions to protect Aegon.

This. Everything so far seems to lead to me that plan A was Viserys (with Dany´s only worth as a bargaining piece). And then there are the dragon eggs. Why were they given to Dany and whose idea was it? Were they predicting the dragons in the plan?

And keep in mind one thing, "Aegon" is a plan for at least 14 years, maybe more if he really is Aegon or the idea to switch the children came right from the first. At that time there were no dragons, no magic in the world, Targaryen blood was just a way to claim a throne, not connect with a dragon for some purpose. If Aegon is Aegon and they were sure of it, why not send him the dragon eggs before, why not tutoring him on how to claim a dragon, instead of just courting a queen? Aegon is getting tutored for a secular king´s road - not for the dragons.

[Coals]

Drogo never had any intention of personally crossing the narrow sea and claiming Dany's throne until the poisoned wine. He was just going to give Viserys an army. Illyrio and Varys had no way of knowing how Drogo would react to that, no way of knowing that the Stallion Who Mounts the World prophesy would be made.

my pennys worth = From their viewpoint no doubt Viserys was going to show up with a bunch of Dothraki screamers, cause merry hell, make Robert's rule implode with paranoia and his bloodhungry nature and then Aegon shows up the white haired knight in shining armour and saves the day.

[Ferrous]

Here's what I don't get about the idea that Dany and Viserys were simply diversions to protect Aegon. Drogo knew who Daenerys was when he wed her, and I don't think he would have cared how much Targaryen blood Aegon had. Drogo was not going to let this boy from the Free Cities usurp the claim of the Stallion Who Mounts the World, which would set up a nice little war between Drogo's khalasar and the Golden Company before the Iron Throne has even had to call the banners in defense. That's one hell of a diversion.

Drogo was never going to be able to conquer and hold Westeros.

The idea would be that Robert and Drogo kill each other, with the winner being Robert.

Robert would have lost his popularity and Aegon comes in to pick up the pieces.

[Ygritte]

Drogo never had any intention of personally crossing the narrow sea and claiming Dany's throne until the poisoned wine. He was just going to give Viserys an army. Illyrio and Varys had no way of knowing how Drogo would react to that, no way of knowing that the Stallion Who Mounts the World prophesy would be made.

my pennys worth = From their viewpoint no doubt Viserys was going to show up with a bunch of Dothraki screamers, cause merry hell, make Robert's rule implode with paranoia and his bloodhungry nature and then Aegon shows up the white haired knight in shining armour and saves the day.

Yup. Drogo and the two siblings were supposed to do all the heavy lifting and then Aegon would come home to an utterly trashed kingdom; he'd swoop in by right of his superior claim, and Dany, Viserys, and Drogo would probably be assassinated anyway.

[Coals]

possible also that the smuggling was originally a plan to save Aegon if Aerys succeeded in burning Kings Landing to the ground with the wildfire. Varys may not have anticipated Roberts murderous hatered toward "dragonspawn". Original plan to hide Aegon till it all calms down needs to quickly change become more permanent so he seeks out Connington.

[Ferrous]

This. Everything so far seems to lead to me that plan A was Viserys (with Dany´s only worth as a bargaining piece). And then there are the dragon eggs. Why were they given to Dany and whose idea was it? Were they predicting the dragons in the plan?

And keep in mind one thing, "Aegon" is a plan for at least 14 years, maybe more if he really is Aegon or the idea to switch the children came right from the first. At that time there were no dragons, no magic in the world, Targaryen blood was just a way to claim a throne, not connect with a dragon for some purpose. If Aegon is Aegon and they were sure of it, why not send him the dragon eggs before, why not tutoring him on how to claim a dragon, instead of just courting a queen? Aegon is getting tutored for a secular king´s road - not for the dragons.

I think the dragon eggs are exactly what it says on the tin, a wedding gift. Illyrio can afford to give Daenerys a few stones. The Targaryen's had being attempting to hatch dragons up until at least Summerhall, which was during the lifetime of both Varys and Illyrio. The Targaryen's had failed every time. It's impossible for Varys to know how to hatch the eggs or that Daenerys would be able to hatch the eggs.

Daenerys' only purpose was to get Drogo's army.

[TrackerNeil]

Drogo was never going to be able to conquer and hold Westeros.

The idea would be that Robert and Drogo kill each other, with the winner being Robert.

Robert would have lost his popularity and Aegon comes in to pick up the pieces.

You're sure about that? Ser Jorah wasn't; in fact, he told Daenerys that Robert Baratheon was not a man to sit behind stone walls while the enemy had its way with his kingdom. It's possible Ned Stark might have been able to talk him around, but maybe not; in King's Landing we saw that when Robert got his mind set on something he was stubborn as stone.

Also, never forget that, if Queen Daenerys showed up in Westeros with a Dothraki horde at her disposal, a number of former Targaryen loyalists - the Tyrells, the Darrys, the Martells - might have decided to join her. In no case was a Baratheon victory a foregone conclusion.

[cteresa]

Daenerys Targaryen, whose birth matches a lot of prophecies which had been around for a while (Such that her older brother was aware of it, dragon has 3 heads and so on), gets given dragon eggs has a wedding present precisely when magic seems to be awakening in the world? I know she is just a young girl who knows nothing of such matters, BUT not a bit too much coincidence?

My point, and I should have made it clearer anyway, is that we do not know quite if Varys objectives and methods are all political. I will try to post about it more clearly soon.

[Ygritte]

I think the dragon eggs are exactly what it says on the tin, a wedding gift. Illyrio can afford to give Daenerys a few stones. The Targaryen's had being attempting to hatch dragons up until at least Summerhall, which was during the lifetime of both Varys and Illyrio. The Targaryen's had failed every time. It's impossible for Varys to know how to hatch the eggs or that Daenerys would be able to hatch the eggs.

Daenerys' only purpose was to get Drogo's army.

Yup. Nobody thought the eggs could hatch.

[Ferrous]

You're sure about that? Ser Jorah wasn't; in fact, he told Daenerys that Robert Baratheon was not a man to sit behind stone walls while the enemy had its way with his kingdom. It's possible Ned Stark might have been able to talk him around, but maybe not; in King's Landing we saw that when Robert got his mind set on something he was stubborn as stone.

Also, never forget that, if Queen Daenerys showed up in Westeros with a Dothraki horde at her disposal, a number of former Targaryen loyalists - the Tyrells, the Darrys, the Martells - might have decided to join her. In no case was a Baratheon victory a foregone conclusion.

Even in Essos, the Dothraki never captured and held cities. Most of the time they went to cities, they were just paid off.

The Dothraki do not know how to capture fortications, especially not the likes of Storm's End, Dragonstone and the Eyrie.

Scorched earth tactics would kill all their horses. Robert may be defeated but Tywin, Ned and Stannis would eventually win.

As for the Targ loyalists, the Tyrells have no chance of joining Daenerys. My reading of the text, is that the Tyrells only supported Aerys because he was King, not because of any affection for the Targaryen family. It would also be hard to advocated, fighting alongside a barbarian horde.

The Martells may join with Daenerys, but would be limited in the aid they can provide, due to the Tyrells. If Varys revealed Aegon to Doran and Oberyn, then they would stay out of the fight.

[Ferrous]

Daenerys Targaryen, whose birth matches a lot of prophecies which had been around for a while (Such that her older brother was aware of it, dragon has 3 heads and so on), gets given dragon eggs has a wedding present precisely when magic seems to be awakening in the world? I know she is just a young girl who knows nothing of such matters, BUT not a bit too much coincidence?

My point, and I should have made it clearer anyway, is that we do not know quite if Varys objectives and methods are all political. I will try to post about it more clearly soon.

Rhaegar could have being mad for all we know.

He wasn't mad in the Aerys/Ramsay, raving psycopath mould, but he could easily have been viewed to be mad in the 'delusions of grandeur' mode.

As readers of the book, we know that Rhaegar was most probably correct, but maybe everyone else just looked at Rhaegar, and were relieved that he his madness was relatively harmless.

Dragon eggs would be a very fitting wedding gift to Daenerys, due to the family connection with dragons.

Most importantly, if Varys knew that Daenerys could somehow hatch the eggs, when the Targs had failed for 100 years, he wouldn't have sent her to Drogo.

[Wouter]

For all we know, Illyrio always counted on Viserys dieing among the Dothraki - he didn't try very hard to stop him from going with them. Maybe the plan was for Drogo to be provoked into crossing the narrow sea (either by killing Dany for real or at least produce a failed attempt, by Robert's orders), then for "Aegon" to be produced after heavy fighting had exhausted both sides. With a better claim than Dany (in theory) and with the public not fond of the barbarians she brought with her, he could fill the gap and take the crown after defeating the remnants of Robert's forces.

[Ran]

Varys has danced the dance before. Drogo was a goner once he achieved whatever it was that they wanted and started to become a complication.

[Maia]

Of course it's possible that Varys only planned to smuggle the baby out and the secrecy was just an added bonus.

Indeed. That's what happened, IMHO. With a couple of weeks headstart and Varys's careful selection of people transporting Aegon, it wouldn't have really mattered.

Heck, Aerys could have blown up KL and/or it was in the rebel's interest to publicly claim that Aegon was dead even if somebody told them that baby was a fake.

Everything so far seems to lead to me that plan A was Viserys

Sorry, no plotter worth his salt would have _ever_ made Viserys his plan A, leave alone without even trying to teach him requisite skills first. Reconquering a kingdom a decade and half after becoming disposessed is very difficult as it is and requires high level of competence/charisma.

For me, this dissonance between Varys's/Illyrio's ostensible plotting skills and this completely hairbrained venture always stuck out like a sore tooth and made me suspect that there was more to it than meets the eye.

And then there are the dragon eggs. Why were they given to Dany and whose idea was it? Were they predicting the dragons in the plan?

No, of course not, IMHO. It was just to shore up Dany's value as a trophy wife. For all we know, Aegon may have some eggs too, or maybe they know where some are hidden in Westeros, if they wanted to add some symbolism. Wouldn't do much now, of course, when Dany has actual dragons.

As has been already noted, nobody expected Drogo to come himself or predicted that the Stallion who Mounts the World prophecy and Dany's almost-poisoning would make him want to claim the Iron Throne for his son.

No doubt, Varys intended to reveal the bastardy of Cersei'd children in completely irrefutable manner (catching them in flagranti, with Robert himself as a witness) just in time to throw the realm in enough chaos that Viserys's Dothraki could do a good deal of damage, etc.

Anyway, of course, the problem with multi-decade plots is that things change, unexpectedly, so...

[cteresa]

Dany is dreaming of waking dragons before she is given the eggs

Yet that night she dreamt of one. Viserys was hitting her, hurting her. She was naked, clumsy with fear. She ran from him, but her body seemed thick and ungainly. He struck her again. She stumbled and fell. “You woke the dragon,” he screamed as he kicked her. “You woke the dragon, you woke the dragon.” Her thighs were slick with blood. She closed her eyes and whimpered. As if in answer, there was a hideous ripping sound and the crackling of some great fire. When she looked again, Viserys was gone, great columns of flame rose all around, and in the midst of them was the dragon. It turned its great head slowly. When its molten eyes found hers, she woke, shaking and covered with a fine sheen of sweat. She had never been so afraid …

… until the day of her wedding came at last.

So, no I do not think it is a coincidence that she was given the dragon eggs. I think it *might* be just a political ostentatious present from Illyrio, and Illyrio itself might be just a tool of something or someone else. But in a world full of magic and seers and prophets, this present is the catalyst for everything. Dismissing it at face value, in a series full of woven threads of plot and layers of magic, well, just look.