[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff

[Lord Varys]

Having a soft spot for the old eunuch and his plans (damned nick, always so telling) I have to like Aegon as well. And, yeah, I think if he is not killed off in the next volume, his chances of riding a dragon and being married to Daenerys have vastly improved by his bold decision to go to Westeros. Had the Golden Company and/or only Griff and a smaller party gone to Meereen, they would have been greeted with the same cold courtesy as Quentyn was.

I'm not sure if Dany had dared to reject another Targaryen as consort (if she had believed him genuine) but she would never decided to leave Meereen just because of their arrival.

If Aegon has already secured Westeros for her, or if he is turmoil needing assistance from her, when she arrives, he would be no beggar, and they would get along much better than they would if he had ended up being Quentyn 2.0.

[Mark Antony]

idk why but i think he is the real aegon.

[corbaekin]

HowlingNorth, that's a brilliant take on it! I really like that, it plays so much how VIserys was "no dragon" because he had weakened himself to the point the molten gold hurt him. I love the idea that dragons must make themselves or be only paper dragons.

[mashiara]

I finished the book yesterday and I just hadn't made up my mind whether Young Griff is truly Aegon or not. Having slept on it and having given it some more thought, I'll have to say I now believe he's a fake. We're told in this book that his hair and eye color isn't as rare as we were led to believe in the previous books. We do have the Mummer's Dragon reference to go by. And I just don't trust Varys to be truthful, even to a dying man.

[Howling North]

See, my previous post on my theory debunking the prophecy about the Mummer's Dragon.

[mashiara]

I saw it. It's a good post. Does it mean I'm not entitled to my own opinion?

[Howling North]

Just making my own point that it isn't something necessarily to be relied upon now. Prophecy is, if we've learned anything about it, a fickle thing.

[Jon AS]

The thing is, can't Aegon be a subversion of the "magical bloodline" trope the Targaryens live and breathe? I.e. in the end he is just some random kid with the right looks, but through his actions proves himself more worthy of being king than many true descendants of Aegon the Conqueror?

I'd find that a lot more appealing a story than him simply being the long-hidden heir to the kingdom. Might be just my 21st century sensibilities that make me reject the concept of monarchy as a whole, so on a meta-level I don't give a damn who is the "rightful king" as long as he does a decent job, if we have to have kings at all.

[Sword of the Morning]

AHA! I have a theory now that covers and satisfies the one conclusive point of contention thus far, the damn prophecy, while still leaving Aegon legitimate!!! Please pay attention

My theory revolves around 3 key points.

1. The point that I believe was made by our admin Ran, that prophecy and destiny can be CHANGED, as was the case concerning the intervention of Tyrion in what is believed to be Aegon's foretold arrival to Dany.

2. The running theme words of the book,Words are Wind

3. And finally, the failure of self-proclaimed dragons like Viserys and now Qunetyn, despite the lineage of their bloodline being of proven Targaryean descent.

Now examine first the conversation and influence Tyrion had on young Aegon, making insightful and telling deductions about what Aegon was expecting and what he was likely going to receive if he HAD reached Dany. After all, what did Aegon have to show for all the effort put into raising him at that point? In his presumption, naivety, and arrogance he thought he could just suddenly show up out of the blue, after being declared dead, and come begging to Dany, who had basically done all the hard work up to this point gathering an army and hatching Dragons, to give these things to him and take a back seat to her own claim, along with giving him her hand in marriage to solidify his rule to boot! Where exactly have we seen this before? Ah yes, another beggar, another FALSE dragon, Dany's sweet older brother and the former Beggar King Viserys Targaryean. A self-entitled prick whose only real action was constantly telling people they were obligated to do things for him when he did absolutely nothing to earn it. Despite being of pure Targaryean descent we know from others comments that Viserys was no real dragon in the end, but a lowly snake scuttling about, preying on the accomplishments and abilities of others, utterly unworthy of his name and a falser dragon if there ever was one.

But perhaps I'm being a bit too extreme in such a comparison? Aegon hasn't displayed anywhere near Viserys cruelty or volatility thus far. So why don't we come to a more recent entry. Good old Quentyn Martell, a naive, energetic young prince, with dreams of adventure and glory, from a proper lineage with its own descent from the Targaryean Dynasty. Sounds much like Aegon doesn't he? Acts much like Aegon too, insisting on Dany to honor commitments made by others on her behalf and making promises of armies and allegiance. But Words are Wind and Quentyn came late to the party, with little and less to really help Dany resolve her immediate crisis, to give up the position she wields now and be dependent on another power, and to act on behalf of someonelses obvious agenda. You cannot MAKE Dany do anything, she has pride now, belief in her own worth unlike when she was with Viserys, and she will not bow so easily, especially to some green boy from a world away without the ability or experience to demonstrate his worth before her, this is why Dany goes for rugged bad-boys and proven warriors like Khal Drogo and Darrio. In the end Quentyn's own overvaluation of himself proves to be his undoing, trying to take what he did not earn, and getting burned in the process, literally! How easily could that have been poor Aegon if he had presented himself instead and tried to claim his dragon you think? Perhaps closer then we might have assumed. With Aegon nowhere in sight, it seems to me Quentyn had to endure Young Griff's fate for him instead.

Now we get to the crux of my argument, the sudden shift and change brought in Danys vision, that the false dragon was coming. And yet, that did not happen, it changed and said 'false dragon' has instead headed in the completely opposite direction, thanks in large part to Tyrion's sage counsel to young Aegon. But what if that isn't the ONLY thing that's changed. Look back at his conversation with Young Griff, how he points out the folly of Aegon's assumptions, of his own sense of entitlement and expectations that everything should just fall in his lap, how he follows the lead and promises of others instead of acting for himself. In that sense, Aegon truly is a cloth dragon, more garnish then anything else, to be paraded before others, and following along the same self-inflated folly that other false dragons tread before him, Viserys and later Quentyn. George has said before that you don't need to be a Targ in order to ride a dragon, so what feature does a Dragon judge the worth of a potential rider then? Perhaps its not so much Targaryean blood, but what kind of person their blood can potentially MAKE them, their legendary strength of character and prodigal ability that has become famous throughout the land. In that instant, something clicks in Aegon's head. Words are Wind , what is needed to prove oneself is action, like going to Westeros on his own with his own strength, not more wasted words or begging and pleading like Viserys whining about his crown or Quentyn's half-assessed attempts at wooing! No, Tyrion puts it best in these lines

And so Aegon ponders on Tyrions words, takes command for the first time since we've met him in overturning the board upon Tyrions deceit, and taking the first step in embracing his heritage, in becoming a real dragon. And so Young Griff flies to Westeros, against what would seem insurmountable odds, tearing down the plans and strings of the puppet-masters Illyrio and Varys and taking the initiative himself for once! Tyrions words may not have just changed Aegon's direction, but instead serve as the catalyst for Aegon to shed the image of the false dragon in Dany's prophecy, to become one in his own right now, on his own ability, and prove himself truly worthy of his name.

How's THAT for inference, deduction, and prophecy reading?

Nicely thought out and written.

Knowing Martin, he'll probably open Winds of Winter by having Aegon speared through the chest while leading the assault on Storm's End though . . .

[bmulls]

I posted this once before but it never showed up.

Can someone explain to me how Aegon has a better claim than Viserys? Or Dany for that matter?

Rhaegar never became king. Had Aerys died before Rhaegar, Rhaegars children would be heirs to the kingdom, but Robert kills Rhaegar on the Trident before Kings Landing is taken. In fact, after Rhaegar died, Viserys was heir for a short while before he and Dany fled.

I think Tyrion mentions the same thing on the pole boat, which is why Aegon decides to sail for Westeros instead of meeting up with Dany in Meereen. He didn't want to show up with a smaller army, a worse claim, no dragons and just *expect* to be wed to Dany. He wanted Dany to meet him on his own terms in Westeros after he'd already won some victories.

In this light, Viserys/Dany was Varys' main project and Aegon was the contingency plan.

[Basileus777]

Rhaegar never became king.

This is irrelevant. His children still get priority over his siblings regardless of whether or not he sat on the Iron Thrones.

Even beyond that, Dany's claim is weaker because the Targs placed females behind any male in the line of succession.

So during the rebelion the succesion line would be

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

4. Rhaenys

5. Viserys

6. Daenerys

7. Rhaella

Based on Targ history, Viserys would come before Rhaenys or any other female.

[Joanna vander Poele]

Hmmm. Not gonna lie, this was a pretty cheesy plot twist in my opinion, kind of eyebrow-raising. I mean, it would be cool and sick as hell if Baby Griff actually turned out to be a pretender. I mean, you can't even foreshadow this kind of event, can you? It pretty much has to come out of left field... and yet I'm still going hmmmm. Not my favourite move by GRRM. Especially since Dany's still in friggin' Slaver's Bay for R'hllor's sake...

[Ferrous]

I posted this once before but it never showed up.

Can someone explain to me how Aegon has a better claim than Viserys? Or Dany for that matter?

Rhaegar never became king. Had Aerys died before Rhaegar, Rhaegars children would be heirs to the kingdom, but Robert kills Rhaegar on the Trident before Kings Landing is taken. In fact, after Rhaegar died, Viserys was heir for a short while before he and Dany fled.

I think Tyrion mentions the same thing on the pole boat, which is why Aegon decides to sail for Westeros instead of meeting up with Dany in Meereen. He didn't want to show up with a smaller army, a worse claim, no dragons and just *expect* to be wed to Dany. He wanted Dany to meet him on his own terms in Westeros after he'd already won some victories.

In this light, Viserys/Dany was Varys' main project and Aegon was the contingency plan.

Based on Eurpean monarchies and primogeniture, the monarch's eldest son (Rhaegar) and his desendants take precedence over his next eldest son.

So during the rebelion the succesion line would be

1. Aerys

2. Rhaegar

3. Aegon

4. Rhaenys

5. Viserys

6. Daenerys

7. Rhaella

and whoever of the Baratheons and Martells that takes precedence

[bmulls]

Thanks guys, I also looked it up in the book and Tyrion confirms that Aegon's claim is stronger than Dany's.

My opinion is Aegon was GRRM's solution to having written himself into a corner; there's not a single hint of him before ADWD, very unlike GRRM. Kind of cheap, but hopefully he's got it figured and we don't have to wait 6 damn years for the next book.

It will be very interesting to see how Dany deals with him, I think her kneeling days are behind her. And if Aegon is fake, he's going to be exposed the first time he gets toasted by a dragon lol.

[Ser Daven Lannister]

Why would Varys even bother to tell Kevan Lannister the truth? That makes no sense to me. Telling Kevan that Aegon is not real would be boasting, and Varys has never struck me as a braggart. Littlefinger, yes; Varys, no.

Also, I think Jon Connington's #1 priority at this juncture is to get Griffin's Roost back. I think that has been his #1 goal all along, and if a Fake Aegon can get him that... I don't think he cares one way or another who the kid actually is. Of course, that little theory of mine predicates, first and foremost, on how long he has had the greyscale. If he contracted it recently... that would invalidate my Connington doesn't care theory altogether.

All in all, I think Aegon is a fake. But in the end, it doesn't matter if he's fake or not. All that matters is that a) he wins and B) people believe he is Aegon. In my mind, a is the bigger if.

[Jon AS]

Of course, that little theory of mine predicates, first and foremost, on how long he has had the greyscale. If he contracted it recently... that would invalidate my Connington doesn't care theory altogether.

His thoughts about how it was stupid to rescue Tyrion from the river make me think that that was when he contracted it.

[Maia]

My opinion is Aegon was GRRM's solution to having written himself into a corner; there's not a single hint of him before ADWD, very unlike GRRM.

Not true. Some of us came up with exactly this theory after ASOS and were much maligned for it ;). The thing is, Varys'/Illyrio's treatment of Viserys and Dany never made any sense if they were supposed to be Targ claimants for whose benefit decade-long plots were being spun.

Add to that that infants are not very distinguishable, lil' Aegon's smashed head, the fact that Varys was able to appear and disappear in the royal castle at will, "there must be _one more_" and the fact that murder of Aegon was a certainty after the Trident... Again, if Varys was a Targ sympathizer, as he seemed to be, it made zero sense for him _not_ to save Aegon, given the ease with which he could accomplish it.

Re: Aegon being a fake - it is true enough that people with Valyrian features seem to be relatively common in the Free Cities. However, even among Valyrians only a few families were dragonriders and those practiced incest, presumably to retain whatever made dragonriding possible in the bloodline.

Given that Aegon and Co. weren't given any magical artifacts to tame dragons and yet Varys and Illyrio expected him to join Dany and get one of them... I'd say that the boy _must_ have Targ blood as all the other dragonriding families seem to have perished in the Doom.

Anyway, I have to gloat that I have totally called this storyline 2 books ago. Even if it turns out that Aegon is a fake, the fact that Viserys and Dany were decoys/pawns and that Varys was laboring in the cause of a hidden heir would still stand and that's what I have been saying until I was (metaphorically) hoarse.

So hear me, I gloat!

[cteresa]

hey, Maia, nice to "see" you again.

bmulls, seriously the Aegon thing has IMO been obvious for a very long time. GRRM has been evading questions about if Aegon was alive way back in another century. There was a FAQ on potential candidates (my own pet theory not proved nor disproved now two years later) oh, by 2002 or something. It´s all planned.

[Maia]

Nice to be back and see you, Cteresa and the other fellow stalwarts . I wasn't completely gone - I did lurk and occasionally post, mostly in Misc, but of course it didn't really compare to the real stuff :P. And it is sooo enjoyable to be vindicated on some of my theories, too...

[urizen]

Also, I think Jon Connington's #1 priority at this juncture is to get Griffin's Roost back. I think that has been his #1 goal all along, and if a Fake Aegon can get him that... I don't think he cares one way or another who the kid actually is. Of course, that little theory of mine predicates, first and foremost, on how long he has had the greyscale. If he contracted it recently... that would invalidate my Connington doesn't care theory altogether.

Personally, I feel that Connington's PoV makes it clear that he believes Aegon to the real deal. His thoughts about how he failed Rhaegar but won't fail his son etc.

As a side note. Am I alone thinking that Jon Connington might be gay?