[ADWD spoilers] More military blunders from Stannis?

[Hambone]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was Mors Umber's party that Bolton fought and that he, as of the writing of the letter, had not encountered Stanis yet. We still have not figured out what the full fallout is in Winterfell after the Manderly/Frey fight. Also somewhat suspicious was that the letter was written my Ramsay and not Roose.

Just supposition.... but my guess is that the Manderly party killed a number of Freys and Boltons (possibly even Roose) before being put down. They did this thinking that Mors Umber was actually Stanis starting his assault. Ramsay then went out to meet Ubmer's force and defeated them, but not before Theon and Jayne got away with the Bavosi banker. Ramsay may be dumb enough and unhinged enough to think that Umber's force was all that was left of Stanis after the storm.

[GoodKingAlf]

Has anyone mentioned this...

There's a very convenient river that runs into the Wolfswood all the way from White Harbour...

We know the manderly's have ships secreted up there. We know the Manderly's are planning - actively planning - to betray Bolton. To do this they'd need men, horses, and supplies at the ready.

They no longer have to worry about Frey spies.

I'd suggest Glover is still in White Harbour preparing and ready to lead Manderly's troops into battle. He would have heard that Stannis has marched from Deepwood Motte.

Boom.

[Podrick + Arya = Win]

It's not really a blunder because Stannis hasn't lost, yet. Besides, no one can defeat a snowstorm.

Anyway, it's an imaginary battle painted to make us hope Stannis wins it. Of course he's going to make silly mistakes along the way.

[mnemosyne]

Only slightly less known than the saying "Never fight a land war in Essos" is the maxim: "Always beware the Northern winter".

I hope Stannis's attempt to take the north doesn't become his Operation Barbarossa ....with Winterfell being his Leningrad.

Heh. Always beware the Northern autumn, in this case, since winter arrives in the epilogue with the white raven who witnesses Varys' murders.

But one note, off topic, I don't believe that the Germans ever intended to take Leningrad. The 900-day siege was a deliberate strategy to starve the inhabitants. The Germans did not want to be responsible for feeding so many people and decided, instead, to starve the city.

Has anyone mentioned this...

There's a very convenient river that runs into the Wolfswood all the way from White Harbour...

We know the manderly's have ships secreted up there. We know the Manderly's are planning - actively planning - to betray Bolton. To do this they'd need men, horses, and supplies at the ready.

They no longer have to worry about Frey spies.

I'd suggest Glover is still in White Harbour preparing and ready to lead Manderly's troops into battle. He would have heard that Stannis has marched from Deepwood Motte.

Boom.

Now that is optimistic. I like it. It's hard for me to imagine that the White Knife (is that the river?) is navigable all the way to Winterfell, but you're right - Manderly makes a point that he's going by barge and litter, and doesn't want the Freys coming with him upriver. And we haven't seen Robett Glover in Winterfell.

[chris.t.]

Here's what I think happened:

The Manderlys and Freys fall on one another the moment they're out of sight of Winterfell. They probably annihilate one another, but if any Freys survive the Umbers in the area take care of them. If any Manderlys survive, they join the Umbers surrounding the castle.

The Umbers (and Manderlys) catch Theon and "Arya" and become VERY interested in the things Theon and "Arya" have to say.

Jon's raven beats the banker to Deepwood Motte. The banker and Iron Men head to Winterfell and meet up with the Umbers and their very interesting captives. They take Theon and "Arya" to Stannis.

There is no way Stannis doesn't know about the Karstark betrayal. Too many other people know about it at that point... Theon, the banker, the other Iron Men, any surviving Manderlys. Karstark is thus roasted on an open fire.

Meanwhile, back in Winterfell, upon discovering the loss of his two favorite toys, Ramsay "Bolton" blows a gasket and loses what little tenuous grasp of sanity he had. He starts killing and torturing people even more randomly than he had before. I think it's VERY telling that the letter to Jon came from Ramsay instead of Roose. I don't think things are being very pleasant for the inhabitants of Winterfell.

What I think will happen:

Eventually the snow storm lets up. Stannis (minus a few Karstarks) meets up with the Umbers and the remaining Manderlys at Winterfell. A force of Wildings and Queens Men come down from Castle Black. All told, they don't have enough to take Winterfell, but can lay siege. They dig in and prepare for a long, hard winter, but Winterfell is fairly quickly opened from the inside as Ramsay is betrayed by some of the lords he hadn't gotten around to killing yet.

Upon taking Winterfell, Stannis announces that Rickon is still alive and that a Stark will once again sit in Winterfell. The North is united again and ready to kick ass.

When the host storms the Twins, who is going to be the one to scream, "No quarter?" Do you think Stannis will let Theon prove his loyalty by being the first into the breach? Will Lady Stoneheart and Nymeria's pack be hiding in the woods on the other side of the river, killing any Freys attempting to flee?

[awesome possum]

I fail to see military blunders. How was Stannis to know that the snowstorm would last more than a month? There's no way to prepare for something like that.

And as has been said, Stannis had to move or else the clans would have left to go back home. His options were to 1) stay at Deepwood Motte and face the possibility of the majority of his army leaving while the rest begin to starve 2) Retreat back to the wall and along the way lose the majority of his army 3) Go to Winterfell

I would say his biggest blunder was letting that Florent fool have command of his navy during the Battle of the Blackwater. There's no way he could have known the Tyrell's would make an alliance with the Lannisters, thus destroying his army.

Every other campaign he's been part of has been successful.

[Were-Human]

Pulling a Young Wolf on Roose would be great, but unlikely, as Roose was there when that ploy was applied and he'd be on the lookout for that.

A more flexible military commander should probably have gone on to Torrhen Square and taken Dagmar Cleftjaw. With Asha's help, he could've gotten Dagmar to kneel perhaps. Then circle to Moat Cailin, initially to cut off resupply for the Freys. Although he doesn't know it, by then Galbert Glover and Maege Mormont could've joined up with his cause, strengthening his position with the Northmen. He could march north on the Kingsroad, and Robett at White Harbour would surely hear of it. Roose would know he cannot hold Winterfell, specially with names such as the Glovers and Maege Mormont flying around. Like people said before me, all he has is a shoddy castle and numbers, and that too based on the tenuous loyalty of the Northern Lords. And the Bolton, even if they decide to retreat from the incoming assault, can only fall back to Dreadfort where they will be surrounded and Stannis would have all the resources of the North to sustain him.

[EDIT: I think I got a little carried away. For all he knows, White Harbour supports Bolton and he'd be caught with no place to run. My bad.]

Before you point out the snowstorm, even if it hit while he was at Torrhen Square, he'd be better off. Moat Cailin, still better off. Middle of nowhere with no food whatsoever. Very, very bad.

But yeah, that didn't happen. At this point, what he should've done, while snowed in, is get up some sort of defense. They should've prepared themselves for a winter march with help from the Northmen, though I'll grant you, no Southron could ever imagine such a storm.

At this point, despite Lord Manderly and Theon's knowledge of the Karstarks, he should be massacred. His army is in shambles. Though who knows what George will pull.

As for the letter, the way stories have been told of Stannis, the tale of the magic sword may have been heard by many and doesn't signify anything.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

The southron soldiers in Stannis' army are in bad shape, but his clansmen are still doing okay, and they make up most of his forces now.

Plus, when Stannis finds out about the Karstarks betraying him he'll probably take their food and gear for his own troops.

[Reyne]

It's not like the Bolton army is in much better shape either. With the situation at the end of the last Asha chapter, I'd give Stannis excellent odds.

Besides, only the Freys are really loyal to Bolton, especially now that he's lost 'Arya.'

[Lord of the Rainwood]

What makes you think that Karstark's won't go over to Stannis once they hear of Alyn's marriage and escape, as they did in Karhold ?

[Davos' Middle Finger]

What makes you think that Karstark's won't go over to Stannis once they hear of Alyn's marriage and escape, as they did in Karhold ?

Arnolf is in the field and thus can't receive ravens, so he has no way of knowing about Alys' marriage. And why would the marriage of Alys and Sigorn make Arnolf want to go over? He won't be pleased that Jon, who he probably assumes is Stannis allied, ruined his plans to take over as Lord of Karhold and essentially gave the castle he coveted for himself to the Thenns.

[mcb]

Interestingly enough people see references to Iraq/A'stan with Dany but here a clear reference is staring at them and they ignore it. :huh:

What Stannis faces is what Germans faced in September 1941. They saw a clear objective (Moscow) that would (probably) win the war if taken.

I don't see why. Napoleon took Moscow and lost the war, why should it work better for Hitler?

[Rockroi]

Stannis is a tremendous military battle commander. Every notable personality in the books- from Ned Stark to Cersei; from Varys to Tywin Lannister all agree: Stannis Baratheon is a fearsome, dangerous man who is implacable on the field of battle. He also has a proven and detailed track record:

1. Held Storm's End by siege on both land and by sea; held together a sparse fighting force against a very large and well-lead army and navy. Potentially saved Robert at the Trident by occupying huge tracts of loyalist forces.

2. Defeated the last Targaryen forces on Dragonstone

3. Against a far more battle-tested Navy, annihilated the Ironfleet to put an end to the Greyjoy Rebellion. Without their fleet, the Greyjoys had no hope of success.

4. After being narrowly defeated on the Blackwater (by the combined might of KIng's Landing, Highgarden and Casterly Rock), was somehow able to lead his forces North beyond the Wall and defeat a gigantic wilding Army.

5. Liberated Deepwood Motte by allying himself to Northern clans, by augmenting them to his fighting forces, and defeating Iron troops within.

None of these maneuvers were easy; they all involved sensational logistical planning over very, very long distances; they involved the coalition of disparate fighting forces to gel and coalesce under Stannis' leadership. And ultimately they involved holding together against long odds- not just on the field of battle.

Let's also discuss what somebody else has stated, namely, that unlike many other military and political leaders in Westeroes (Robert, Cersei, Ned, etc) Stannis actually LISTENS to the advice people give him and he is able to (somehow- its actually NOT an easy skill to master) take that information and challenge his own hypothesis: Stannis takes information and decides if the NEW information is better than the plans he had already looked at. He takes seriously the advice of of Jon Snow, of Davos Seaworth, of Mel, etc and he is able to work out what the best plan is.

Now, with this in mid Stannis finds himself deep in Northern Territory away from his base of operations- the Wall. He has thousands of men under his command; Winter is setting in and Roose and Ramsey Bolton hold the center of the North - Winterfell. What is Stannis to do? He makes a calculated risk and marches on WF- that plan is developed by having won to him the Umbers and the Karstarks. He id facing a very unproven fighting force made up of mis-matched parts: the Freys, the Manderlys and other houses sworn to Bolton. They may be inside WF, but WF has already fallen and has no support structures; no infrastructure; no supply lines. Will it be easy: FUCK NO!

But winning wars, winning crowns, winning battles and the hearts and minds of men is NEVER EASY! Stannis has to roll the dice and take some risks or he will be stuck on the Wall forever, not King. Marching on WF was a calculated risk taken by a man who knows what's at stake. He knows he cannot outlast or outspend or simply annihilate his enemies; he has to outsmart them and out tough them.

And he's just the man to do it.

As Stannis' character has developed, its amazing how the universe around him ... takes him at face value; he ISN'T loved; the people who fight for him don't also want to fuck him; he doesn't have supernatural animals who will do his bidding; he doesn't have scores of men like the Lannisters or the Starks. And he's kind of a jerk.

But with Stannis- you know what you get. He is dependable, dutiful, reliable, stoic, just, fair and hard on his enemies. He listens to men and he keeps what they say in mind when he makes decisions. He's not duplicitous; he's not a hypocrite; he's not arbitrary or capricious.

In other words, he acts and sounds a lot.... like a King.

[aktarian]

I don't see why. Napoleon took Moscow and lost the war, why should it work better for Hitler?

1. Moscow wasn't Russian capital in 1812, St. Petersburg was

2. Soviet Union was far more centralised state than Russian empire was, loss of Moscow would mean loss of significant part of state aparatus, possibly even Stalin who refused to leave

3. In 1941 Moscow was a railroad hub (unlike 1812 since there were no railroads yet), loss of it would be a blow to their strategic mobility, Leningrad couldn't be supported etc

4. In modern history few countries were able to fight on after loss of capital, it's too big of a moral blow.

All that influenced German war strategy and this is why in late september they decided to go for it, despite being weakened. Hoping that one more push will do it, SU will collapse and war will be won. Something Stannis decided to do as well, risk a battle despite being far from sure thing because it was the least bad option.

[Leold]

Stannis is a tremendous military battle commander. Every notable personality in the books- from Ned Stark to Cersei; from Varys to Tywin Lannister all agree: Stannis Baratheon is a fearsome, dangerous man who is implacable on the field of battle. He also has a proven and detailed track record:

1. Held Storm's End by siege on both land and by sea; held together a sparse fighting force against a very large and well-lead army and navy. Potentially saved Robert at the Trident by occupying huge tracts of loyalist forces.

2. Defeated the last Targaryen forces on Dragonstone

3. Against a far more battle-tested Navy, annihilated the Ironfleet to put an end to the Greyjoy Rebellion. Without their fleet, the Greyjoys had no hope of success.

4. After being narrowly defeated on the Blackwater (by the combined might of KIng's Landing, Highgarden and Casterly Rock), was somehow able to lead his forces North beyond the Wall and defeat a gigantic wilding Army.

5. Liberated Deepwood Motte by allying himself to Northern clans, by augmenting them to his fighting forces, and defeating Iron troops within.

None of these maneuvers were easy; they all involved sensational logistical planning over very, very long distances; they involved the coalition of disparate fighting forces to gel and coalesce under Stannis' leadership. And ultimately they involved holding together against long odds- not just on the field of battle.

Let's also discuss what somebody else has stated, namely, that unlike many other military and political leaders in Westeroes (Robert, Cersei, Ned, etc) Stannis actually LISTENS to the advice people give him and he is able to (somehow- its actually NOT an easy skill to master) take that information and challenge his own hypothesis: Stannis takes information and decides if the NEW information is better than the plans he had already looked at. He takes seriously the advice of of Jon Snow, of Davos Seaworth, of Mel, etc and he is able to work out what the best plan is.

Now, with this in mid Stannis finds himself deep in Northern Territory away from his base of operations- the Wall. He has thousands of men under his command; Winter is setting in and Roose and Ramsey Bolton hold the center of the North - Winterfell. What is Stannis to do? He makes a calculated risk and marches on WF- that plan is developed by having won to him the Umbers and the Karstarks. He id facing a very unproven fighting force made up of mis-matched parts: the Freys, the Manderlys and other houses sworn to Bolton. They may be inside WF, but WF has already fallen and has no support structures; no infrastructure; no supply lines. Will it be easy: FUCK NO!

But winning wars, winning crowns, winning battles and the hearts and minds of men is NEVER EASY! Stannis has to roll the dice and take some risks or he will be stuck on the Wall forever, not King. Marching on WF was a calculated risk taken by a man who knows what's at stake. He knows he cannot outlast or outspend or simply annihilate his enemies; he has to outsmart them and out tough them.

And he's just the man to do it.

As Stannis' character has developed, its amazing how the universe around him ... takes him at face value; he ISN'T loved; the people who fight for him don't also want to fuck him; he doesn't have supernatural animals who will do his bidding; he doesn't have scores of men like the Lannisters or the Starks. And he's kind of a jerk.

But with Stannis- you know what you get. He is dependable, dutiful, reliable, stoic, just, fair and hard on his enemies. He listens to men and he keeps what they say in mind when he makes decisions. He's not duplicitous; he's not a hypocrite; he's not arbitrary or capricious.

In other words, he acts and sounds a lot.... like a King.

Well said.

As the middle brother of the charismatic Renly and the highly successful Robert, Stannis had to EARN many things most nobles could simply inherit. Even his holding on Dragonstone was "given" to him by Robert after he'd taken it through conquest against the Targaryens. And any commander who can best the Iron Fleet on their home turf is aces in my book.

[Markus]

It should be noted that when Stannis took Deepwood Motte Bolton didn't yet hold Winterfell. It seems that Stannis lingering at Deepwood Motte for weeks at least allowed Bolton to take and fortify Winterfell before Stannis could take it.

Jon, at least, is quite clear that he thinks Stannis is a more deliberate than bold commander but that the correct course of action here would require Robert's boldness.

ETA: On another note, we've learned another of Stannis' military accomplishments: He is said to have subdued Great Wyk in Greyjoy's Rebellion.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

Stannis is a good commander, but that doesn't mean he hasn't made mistakes. His biggest mistake was putting Imry Florent in command of the fleet at the Blackwater instead of Davos or someone else competent, but he probably would have lost the battle anyway. Also, not taking Melisandre with him.

And he does learn from his mistakes, as shown by his making Davos Hand and by listening to Jon's advice in A Dance With Dragons.

Stannis and Jon strategizing was one of my favorite scenes in the book actually.

[Chalky]

Stannis is a tremendous military battle commander. Every notable personality in the books- from Ned Stark to Cersei; from Varys to Tywin Lannister all agree: Stannis Baratheon is a fearsome, dangerous man who is implacable on the field of battle. He also has a proven and detailed track record:

1. Held Storm's End by siege on both land and by sea; held together a sparse fighting force against a very large and well-lead army and navy. Potentially saved Robert at the Trident by occupying huge tracts of loyalist forces.

2. Defeated the last Targaryen forces on Dragonstone

3. Against a far more battle-tested Navy, annihilated the Ironfleet to put an end to the Greyjoy Rebellion. Without their fleet, the Greyjoys had no hope of success.

4. After being narrowly defeated on the Blackwater (by the combined might of KIng's Landing, Highgarden and Casterly Rock), was somehow able to lead his forces North beyond the Wall and defeat a gigantic wilding Army.

5. Liberated Deepwood Motte by allying himself to Northern clans, by augmenting them to his fighting forces, and defeating Iron troops within.

None of these maneuvers were easy; they all involved sensational logistical planning over very, very long distances; they involved the coalition of disparate fighting forces to gel and coalesce under Stannis' leadership. And ultimately they involved holding together against long odds- not just on the field of battle.

Let's also discuss what somebody else has stated, namely, that unlike many other military and political leaders in Westeroes (Robert, Cersei, Ned, etc) Stannis actually LISTENS to the advice people give him and he is able to (somehow- its actually NOT an easy skill to master) take that information and challenge his own hypothesis: Stannis takes information and decides if the NEW information is better than the plans he had already looked at. He takes seriously the advice of of Jon Snow, of Davos Seaworth, of Mel, etc and he is able to work out what the best plan is.

Now, with this in mid Stannis finds himself deep in Northern Territory away from his base of operations- the Wall. He has thousands of men under his command; Winter is setting in and Roose and Ramsey Bolton hold the center of the North - Winterfell. What is Stannis to do? He makes a calculated risk and marches on WF- that plan is developed by having won to him the Umbers and the Karstarks. He id facing a very unproven fighting force made up of mis-matched parts: the Freys, the Manderlys and other houses sworn to Bolton. They may be inside WF, but WF has already fallen and has no support structures; no infrastructure; no supply lines. Will it be easy: FUCK NO!

But winning wars, winning crowns, winning battles and the hearts and minds of men is NEVER EASY! Stannis has to roll the dice and take some risks or he will be stuck on the Wall forever, not King. Marching on WF was a calculated risk taken by a man who knows what's at stake. He knows he cannot outlast or outspend or simply annihilate his enemies; he has to outsmart them and out tough them.

And he's just the man to do it.

As Stannis' character has developed, its amazing how the universe around him ... takes him at face value; he ISN'T loved; the people who fight for him don't also want to fuck him; he doesn't have supernatural animals who will do his bidding; he doesn't have scores of men like the Lannisters or the Starks. And he's kind of a jerk.

But with Stannis- you know what you get. He is dependable, dutiful, reliable, stoic, just, fair and hard on his enemies. He listens to men and he keeps what they say in mind when he makes decisions. He's not duplicitous; he's not a hypocrite; he's not arbitrary or capricious.

In other words, he acts and sounds a lot.... like a King.

This post is full of win

[Doughbelly]

all commanders make mistakes. victory goes to the one who makes the least mistakes. and it's easy to avoid mistakes when the grass is green, the skys are blue and you have all the advantages. the great commanders are the ones who avoid the big mistakes when the chips are down, when factors beyond their control are conspiring against them.

that's why Stannis so often comes out on top. he isn't flashy, but he doesn't make many mistakes, regardless of circumstances.

You only have to make one mistake that really matters. History is replete with commanders who have failed upwards and/or through a stroke of luck and circumstance, ended up on top. Putting aside some alternative interpretations, the South in the American Civil War was consistently better lead and by most definitions, generally much more successful in individual engagements than the North. Critical Southern mistakes came when the stakes were higher. We all know the result.

There's that old saying, attributed to everyone between Napoloean and Omar Bradley, "Amateurs study strategy. Professionals study logistics.

Stannis has consistently failed at logistics. His is a beggar army, more so than the others.

Also, what other commander has essentially lost two entire armies over the course of the book? Stannis lead his forces into two massive blunders.

Every Davos chapter I read, I feel sorry for the Onion Knight for being attached to this loser of a king. :-P

[El Pinko Grande]

Given the distances involved, it does seem like Winterfell is Stannis' best choice of target. Torrhen's Square and the Dreadfort both appear to be farther, quite a bit farther in the Dreadfort's case. And, while Stannis obviously can't predict the weather, he is probably aware that the amount of time he has for campaigning is limited with winter about to set in. He knows he probably has enough time to hit one target, but after that the weather becomes very iffy. Further, given the attitudes of his Northern allies, he needs to strike some kind of blow against the Boltons before settling down and regrouping.

Given all that, I think heading for Winterfell is the correct course of action. If he did indeed spend a few weeks lingering at Deepwood Motte, though, that was a massive blunder. The only way that extra time will work out for him is if it allows Davos to miraculously produce Rickon and thereby win over the entire non-Bolton North.