[ADWD spoilers] More military blunders from Stannis?

[Lord of the Rainwood]

Arnolf is in the field and thus can't receive ravens, so he has no way of knowing about Alys' marriage. And why would the marriage of Alys and Sigorn make Arnolf want to go over? He won't be pleased that Jon, who he probably assumes is Stannis allied, ruined his plans to take over as Lord of Karhold and essentially gave the castle he coveted for himself to the Thenns.

I was speaking of the Karstark men, after Arnolf is dead. There is no reason to slaughter the rest of them.

[Lord of the Rainwood]

Also, what other commander has essentially lost two entire armies over the course of the book? Stannis lead his forces into two massive blunders.

What other commander created practically three armies and a massive fleet over the course of the story?

And "losing" command (nor "gaining") of treacherous Tyrells really counts one way or the other, I'd say.

[FYATroll]

I'll just say I think the letter is a fake. We already have precedent for people lying about killing this person or that person on multiple occassions. I'm thinking BOlton is simply hoping Stannis has frozen to death out there so he can get away with saying he's killed Stannis and get the Wall to believe it.

[Eddard Stark]

Stannis is a good general, certainly up there with Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, Robb Stark, Brynden Tully, Randyll Tarly or Tywin Lannister. Honestly, Robert was never a general - he was a commander. He inspired loyalty, but it's also clear from the books that he was a fighter, not a thinker and that Ned, Jon Arryn and the Tully brothers were the brains behind the rebellion.

Anyway, everything Stannis did in the North is pretty reasonable from a strategic perspective.

[YouKnowNothingJonSnow]

Can't comment until we know the truth of the Pink Letter, but I'll say:

1) It is telling it comes from Ramsay. To me, this implies Roose is dead. Do you think Roose would let his dimwitted bastard write such a letter if he was still alive? I don't. This augurs well for Stannis, but not really well. Because if Stannis had taken Winterfell, he'd have access to the ravens himself, and Jon would be getting happy news.

2) The fact that Jeyne and Theon fall into his lap could have dire consequences for the army. If there is no Stark to free, why assault Winterfell at all? Of course, the only reason may be because they are starving and have no shelter. But the fact that Arya is a fake could enrage the Northmen inside Winterfell as well.

3) When the Freys ride out with the Manderly's, they are in trouble. The only friends they have out there are the Karstarks, and Stannis should know of them by this time. I think the Frey's get wiped out. At this point, Stannis will have the "Stark" girl, the info from the Bank of Braavos, two Greyjoys with a claim to the Iron Throne (one who is willing to settle for peace and land), and a bunch of Stark loyalists around Winterfell.

If Davos has succeeded, he may also have Rickon. If not, he may still have had resupplies sailing up from White Harbor. Surely, he has planned for this eventuality. The North remembers, and I think Lord Manderly has the Bolton's to take revenge upon, not just the Freys.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

Would Manderly be able to get extra supplies up the river in winter?

Won't it freeze over?

[Corvinus85]

The thing that worries me is that it's all a game of "I know that you know that I know..." so it comes to who makes the first blow.

Manderly has been plotting his revenge against the Freys and the Boltons. But he knows that alone he cannot succeed, though at least the Glovers are with him. He probably counts on the whole "the North remembers" thing to have other northmen join him. Then Davos shows up and he offers him a deal. It seems to me that Manderly wasn't willing to openly declare for Stannis until Davos delivered Rickon.

Then you have Roose Bolton who knows that Manderly is plotting against him, but he doesn't seem to know the details, so he still thinks he has the advantage over him. He also has the secret deal with Karstark, which it seems only he knows about.

Meanwhile, the most confusing part for me is that the Umbers seem to be double-dealing, but I think they are against Bolton as well. And then there's Lady Dustin who definitely seems to know more than she shows, but whose side is she truly on? Well that remains to be seen.

So when battle started (or will start), Karstark intended to strike against Stannis.

Unless Stannis received the warning ahead of time, and struck first.

Then Bolton's forces attack Stannis. What will the Umbers, Manderly, and Dustin do?

Manderly might decide to strike at Bolton at that moment. But he only brought 300 knights with him. Is that enough to turn a battle? Maybe

But what if Bolton anticipates Manderly, and strikes first?

But what if it turns out that Manderly had secretly ferried many more troops up the White Knife (like somebody before suggested) and they arrive at the place of battle just in time?

You see, it's all a major clusterf***

[Corvinus85]

Would Manderly be able to get extra supplies up the river in winter?

Won't it freeze over?

If the ice is thick enough, he can trade the barges for sleds.

[Auska]

If the ice is thick enough, he can trade the barges for sleds.

This is a good point. Even today, and certainly in the past, many areas are actually more accessible in the winter; lakes that would be tens or possibly hundreds of miles to go around in the summer can simply be crossed over and, unlike cramped boats, you can use regular equipment (though sleds &c. certainly make things easier). Of course you have to have something to transport to begin with for it to be of any use.

…

Destroying the winter garden in Winterfell was probably one of the dumbest decisions made in the war for the North.

[Demonblade]

First off, how is it a blunder on Stannis's part for waiting at Deepwood Motte for a month (assuming that it was, indeed a month)? Is there a Westerosi calendar that indicates when autumn ends and winter begins? Because unless the Citadel sent a white raven to Deepwood Motte, all Stannis knows is that it is snowing as they left, this in an area where it snows in summer, and the last summer lasted, what, ten years? I mean, we're not dealing with a seasonal cycle comparable to ours where waiting in September for a month to march in October, reaching their destination by the second/third week of October and thereby risking being caught in an early winter storm. For all we know, autumn could last years, as well, and certainly for longer than the standard three months. I really don't see how this counts as a blunder on Stannis's part.

Second, were it not for Tywin and Mace joining forces, Stannis would have sacked King's Landing, regardless of whoever is in charge of the fleet.

As for Ramsay's letter, I was not in the slightest bit worried about Stannis's fate, as this is Ramsay we are talking about here. He's not the most reliable of sources of information. I wouldn't be surprised if he wrote that letter out of frustration over losing 'Arya' and Reek. I mean, think about it, who is chasing after Stannis the last time we have a look at Winterfell? Freys, Manderleys, and most likely the bulk of Roose's forces. With the Umbers and Manderleys poised to switch sides, along with the presumption that the Karstarks' deception will have been exposed, Roose is basically fucked.

Again, assuming that the Karstarks are neutralized as a threat, Stannis is actually in a pretty good position. The Bravosi banker seems willing to give Stannis whatever terms he wants in order to have the Iron Throne pay back its debts, which, I assume includes loaning more gold to buy supplies like food and arms. After Winterfell is taken, it looks like Stannis is in a good position to hold what he has and rebuild the North throughout the winter. Plus, as it was said earlier, Roose is planning on meeting Stannis on the battlefield, which plays directly into his hands, because; i) Stannis simply cannot take Winterfell via siege alone, and ii) Roose has no idea how many numbers Stannis actually has. In other words, Roose is marching into a disaster, and since we have ample evidence of Stannis's battle prowess and precious little evidence of Roose's, I'd say that Roose's days are numbered.

[MadMage]

Given the distances involved, it does seem like Winterfell is Stannis' best choice of target. Torrhen's Square and the Dreadfort both appear to be farther, quite a bit farther in the Dreadfort's case. And, while Stannis obviously can't predict the weather, he is probably aware that the amount of time he has for campaigning is limited with winter about to set in. He knows he probably has enough time to hit one target, but after that the weather becomes very iffy. Further, given the attitudes of his Northern allies, he needs to strike some kind of blow against the Boltons before settling down and regrouping.

Given all that, I think heading for Winterfell is the correct course of action. If he did indeed spend a few weeks lingering at Deepwood Motte, though, that was a massive blunder. The only way that extra time will work out for him is if it allows Davos to miraculously produce Rickon and thereby win over the entire non-Bolton North.

This is all the explanation needed. IF Stannis did not strike before Winter, he'd have lost all his momentum, allowed his enemies to further regroup, and likely his armies would have been snowed in at Deepwood Motte which would have been a marginally better situation as there's no indication that he'd have enough food to feed his men. Striking Bolton in the proverbial viper's pit was the ideal scenario. The situation is growing tense on both sides with Roose's men being killed from within and holed up with nowhere to run and Stannis out in the proverbial open. The sounding of the drums by the Umbers to scare those inside is a great psychological tactic. It reminds me of what the Russians would do during the Battle of Stalingrad. Things like have large speakers alarm out with the message "Every 8 seconds, a german soldier dies in Stalingrad" followed by a countdown. As it stands, it's whomever "breaks" first. Stannis has shown he doesn't break easily (Storm's End), while we see Roose was already showing signs of losing his composure as he raised his voice in the Frey and Manderly dispute.

[Martin Alvito]

But one note, off topic, I don't believe that the Germans ever intended to take Leningrad. The 900-day siege was a deliberate strategy to starve the inhabitants. The Germans did not want to be responsible for feeding so many people and decided, instead, to starve the city.

I think the Germans would have preferred to take it, but that was secondary to the strategic objectives of negating Leningrad's capabilities as a producer of materiel, naval base and potential point of resupply for the Russians.

Once Stannis moved to pick up the northern clansmen and take Deepwood Motte, his hand was forced and he had to march on Winterfell. His choices were between bad and worse. Stay put, lose your newfound allies, become hopelessly outnumbered and starve, or gamble on a march on Winterfell and hope you can break the defenders before you freeze or starve. Neither is an appealing option, but the latter is at least a gamble for resurrection rather than a certain defeat.

Losing on the Blackwater pretty much ended the hopes of Stannis, but I don't know what else he could have done. Once Tyrell joined his forces to Lannister, Stannis was toast. A defensive war was a losing bet with certainty. All he could do was toss the dice at King's Landing and hope they didn't come up snake eyes.

After that, bending the knee wasn't an option either. The removal of Ned Stark's head removed any possibility of bending the knee; Joffrey "Baratheon" could not be trusted to honor deals with those who put themselves into his power. That turned the competition into a winner-take-all game that would be fought to the bitter end by all parties. That, in turn, has significantly weakened Westeros to the point that an outside force could potentially conquer with some local assistance - a laughable notion during Robert Baratheon's reign.

[PetrusOctavianus]

Why didn't Stannis learn from his defeat at Blackwater Bay? If he had Melisandre with him he could have won there. So why didn't he bring her with him to Winterfell? She may not have been able to do something with the weather, but she should be able to see that Arnolf Stark was a traitor. And Asha being the Kraken's daughter would have made a fine sacrifice to R'hollor.

[Howdyphillip]

Also, what other commander has essentially lost two entire armies over the course of the book? Stannis lead his forces into two massive blunders.

The Lannisters lost an entire army to the war with Robb. They then had to retrain men for the defense of King's landing, and lost the majority of their men there. They are at the present on their third army.

The Tyrells lost most of their army in the above mentioned defense of King's landing and had to train more men. They are on their second Army.

The Starks keep getting their head removed, and Robb lost an army after the Red Wedding. We are still waiting to see if the North can be unified to raise another force. Stannis is probably the best hope for this.

The Tullys have been decimated by the Lannisters, and it doesn't look like they will get a chance to raise a second army.

As a matter of fact, everyone who has fought has lost armies in Westeros. The only peoples who haven't are the Dorne and the Vale. Stannis has at least won major military victories and seems to be increasing his power at every turn. Whether you like the character or not does not mean that he isn't written to be an excellent commander.

Oh... and I still do not count the holding of Storm's End a victory for Stannis. That was all about Ned getting there in the nick of time.

[Markus]

First off, how is it a blunder on Stannis's part for waiting at Deepwood Motte for a month (assuming that it was, indeed a month)? ... Stannis simply cannot take Winterfell via siege alone,

I don't think we know how long exactly Stannis stayed at Deepwood Motte. At least some days from his letter to Jon and perhaps a few weeks if Lord Fell is to be believed.

In any case, these are Jon's thoughts after Stannis informs him that he has taken Deepwood Motte and has heard Bolton is marching to Winterfell:

Even ruined, Winterfell itself would confer a considerable advantage on whoever held it. Robert Baratheon would have seen that at once and moved swiftly to secure the castle, with the forced marches and midnight rides for which he had been famous. Would his brother be as bold? Not likely. Stannis was a deliberate commander, and his host was a half-digested stew of clansmen, southron knights, king’s men and queen’s men, salted with a few northern lords. He should move on Winterfell swiftly, or not at all, Jon thought. ...

On the march to Winterfell we get these comments in Asha's chapter:

Between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell lay one hundred leagues of forest. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. “Fifteen days,” the knights told each other.

“Robert would have done it in ten,” Asha heard Lord Fell boasting. His grandsire had been slain by Robert at Summerhall; somehow this had elevated his slayer to godlike prowess in the grandson’s eyes. “Robert would have been inside Winterfell a fortnight ago, thumbing his nose at Bolton from the battlements.”

I think GRRM presents the suggestion -- via Jon and Lord Fell -- that Stannis should and could have secured Winterfell before Bolton reached it. Granted, Lord Fell may exaggerate since he idolizes Robert, but we also know that Stannis didn't immediately march on Winterfell after he took Deepwood Motte but lingered some time in Deepwood Motte. He said as much in his letter to Jon.

You've said yourself that Stannis besieging Bolton in Winterfell -- with winter approaching -- might not be the best idea in the world. Neither would trying to take Winterfell by storm with at best similar numbers to Bolton's have been a great idea. Which is probably why Jon thinks that Stannis should have been bolder than he was to gain the advantage of Winterfell for himself and to deny it to Bolton.

Instead, Stannis seems to have chosen to swell his numbers with northmen who joined him after he took Deepwood Motte, to consolidate his army and not to risk tiring out his men on the march. In itself these were not mistakes. Increasing his numbers increased his chances. Consolidating his mis-matched army served a purpose too and having a rested army is preferable to having an exhausted one. However, these decisions may have allowed Bolton to gain the advantage of Winterfell and its' shelter and walls.

Stannis is by no means a blunderer in general or incompetent. There is ample proof of this in his generally successful military record. But I think what we're seeing here is a continuation of Stannis being a methodical, deliberate commander who prefers to prepare as best as possible before seeking battle but not a daring one. Which isn't a bad trait to have in general. But sometimes a more daring approach can be more rewarding.

That seems to have been how Robert prevented his foes in the Stormlands from joining forces against him at Summerhall. When Robert learned of their plans he seems to have force-marched on them to ambush them and won three battles when his rebellion might otherwise have been stalled or even been stopped if he would have waited to strengthen his forces.

It's not the first time that Stannis chose to be methodical rather than daring either. One wonders what would have happened if Stannis would have chosen to attack the lightly held King's Landing rather than Storm's End when he sailed from Dragonstone in ACoK. Or if he could have taken King's Landing before Tywin could've caught him at the walls if he would have left Storm's End untaken in his rear risking to be seen as "defeated" and immediately force-marched on King's Landing as soon as Tywin marched west from Harrenhal. Stannis had arguable reasons for his actual decisions but a more daring commander might perhaps have been more successful than Stannis turned out to be.

[Frey Pie]

Well this may be out of character for Stannis but could Ramsays letter have been forged by Stannis as a way of getting Jon Snow to break his vows after finding out Arya was a fake?Bit of a long shot but i really dont think Stannis is dead.

On what i think Stannis should have done i would say he should have taken a leaf out of the young wolfs book and split his forces.He didnt need all his men or even close to that number to take Deepwood so if he sent the larger part of his foot to hold Winterfell and then took Deepwood quickly while gaining allies in the clansmen i feel he would have been in a far better position.Using the previously mentioned one man on a wall is worth ten under it i think his split forces would have been able to hold off any force Roose could bolster while Stannis may have been able to be the hammer to winterfells anvil.

First post so go easy on me!

[Demonblade]

I think GRRM presents the suggestion -- via Jon and Lord Fell -- that Stannis should and could have secured Winterfell before Bolton reached it. Granted, Lord Fell may exaggerate since he idolizes Robert, but we also know that Stannis didn't immediately march on Winterfell after he took Deepwood Motte but lingered some time in Deepwood Motte. He said as much in his letter to Jon.

If Stannis had marched as soon as Deepwood Motte was taken, there is no guarantee that he would have reached Winterfell before Roose. The only evidence that we have that might have made the journey down to Winterfell are the musings of a few Southron knights who made some unsubstantiated claims that Robert would have gotten there sooner, despite what Northerners said about how long it would take to get there. I'll take the word of the people who actually live in the terrain over a few Southron braggarts. But let's say for a second that it's true, and that Stannis could have reached Winterfell in double the time, just like Robert would have done. That means that his cavalry rides ahead, hoping to reach the gates before Bolton's men get there. With relatively small numbers of troops at his disposal, dividing the army is a huge risk. Plus, you still have a huge snowstorm to deal with, leaving the foot behind to eventually eat each other, and Stannis with a few hundred cavalry slowing to a crawl and eventually eating their own horses.

You've said yourself that Stannis besieging Bolton in Winterfell -- with winter approaching -- might not be the best idea in the world. Neither would trying to take Winterfell by storm with at best similar numbers to Bolton's have been a great idea. Which is probably why Jon thinks that Stannis should have been bolder than he was to gain the advantage of Winterfell for himself and to deny it to Bolton.

Well that wasn't what I said. Stannis besieging Bolton in Winterfell in the situation that they were in (namely in a month-long snowstorm with no provisions and with men resorting to cannibalism) was a bad idea. Had Stannis reached Winterfell with his full numbers and well-stocked, a siege would likely have been possible, but even then, having Bolton come out and fight would play into Stannis's hands. But had Stannis reached Winterfell before Roose, then Stannis would be besieged in a ruin of a castle with very little provisions to withstand a prolonged siege. Either way, boldness is not always the best idea. I mean, there were a number of comparisons to Robert, but Robert had the Starks, the Arryns and the Tullys on his side. Stannis has precious few of men loyal to him, but has many men who, until just recently, swore allegiance to a different king. Essentially, the army that he has with him is all that he has.

Instead, Stannis seems to have chosen to swell his numbers with northmen who joined him after he took Deepwood Motte, to consolidate his army and not to risk tiring out his men on the march. In itself these were not mistakes. Increasing his numbers increased his chances. Consolidating his mis-matched army served a purpose too and having a rested army is preferable to having an exhausted one. However, these decisions may have allowed Bolton to gain the advantage of Winterfell and its' shelter and walls.

I'm not sure if you are taking into consideration the fact that the snowstorm slowed the march to a crawl. They should have reached Winterfell either just before or just after Roose arrived, but the snowstorm put that notion to bed.

Stannis is by no means a blunderer in general or incompetent. There is ample proof of this in his generally successful military record. But I think what we're seeing here is a continuation of Stannis being a methodical, deliberate commander who prefers to prepare as best as possible before seeking battle but not a daring one. Which isn't a bad trait to have in general. But sometimes a more daring approach can be more rewarding.

That seems to have been how Robert prevented his foes in the Stormlands from joining forces against him at Summerhall. When Robert learned of their plans he seems to have force-marched on them to ambush them and won three battles when his rebellion might otherwise have been stalled or even been stopped if he would have waited to strengthen his forces.

Robert was bold, but he was also foolish. Things worked out well for him, but that was as much due to the incompetence of his opponents as well as his battle prowess. Connington said as much in his chapter when he muses that had he been more of a ruthless prick like Tywin, Stony Sept would have been burned to the ground, along with Robert and all the hopes for the rebellion. Plus, we know that Aerys's madness made things worse for him, and better for Robert. And given how much we know of Robert's reign as king, what GRRM is showing us is that Stannis is unlike Robert, and depending on one's opinion of him, that could be either a good or a bad thing.

It's not the first time that Stannis chose to be methodical rather than daring either. One wonders what would have happened if Stannis would have chosen to attack the lightly held King's Landing rather than Storm's End when he sailed from Dragonstone in ACoK. Or if he could have taken King's Landing before Tywin could've caught him at the walls if he would have left Storm's End untaken in his rear risking to be seen as "defeated" and immediately force-marched on King's Landing as soon as Tywin marched west from Harrenhal. Stannis had arguable reasons for his actual decisions but a more daring commander might perhaps have been more successful than Stannis turned out to be.

What would have happened would have been disaster, as there is no chance that Stannis holds King's Landing with his feeble Dragonstone force against the combined might of Highgarden and the Stormlands. He would have taken the city, sure, but he would not have been able to hold it, what with Renly prancing his way to King's Landing. Unless there is some scenario out there that would have allowed Renly to bend the knee to Stannis and keep Highgarden, taking King's Landing would have been at the height of stupidity on Stannis's part.

[Markus]

demonblade,

It weren't the northmen who suggested 15 days of march but Stannis' own men, and others' of his men who said Robert would have done it faster. Moreover, you seem to forget Jon echoing these same thoughts, suggesting that Jon, a northman, thought Stannis could have secured Winterfell if he would've moved as boldly as Robert was famous for.

Stannis marching faster and/or moving earlier from Deepwood Motte would not necessarily have split his force either. Infantry can move pretty fast over longer distances compared to cavalry in woods which has to be supplied too. Crucially, the snow storm might well have been avoided altogether if Stannis would have moved more quickly. If Stannis could and would moved earlier from DM he could have secured Winterfell and left Bolton in the snowstorm.

Granted, until we take a very close look at the timeline we've no real guarantee that Jon and Lord Fell are right, but I think GRRM had a good reason to contrast Robert's and Stannis' approach and then let Stannis end in a snow storm because he didn't do what Jon and Robert would have done.

Had Stannis reached Winterfell with his full numbers and well-stocked, a siege would likely have been possible, but even then, having Bolton come out and fight would play into Stannis's hands.

A siege in winter is seldom a good idea if it can be avoided.

But had Stannis reached Winterfell before Roose, then Stannis would be besieged in a ruin of a castle with very little provisions to withstand a prolonged siege.

Winterfell isn't really a ruin. While the wooden parts were burned they could've been restored just like Roose did. Mance made it also clear that it's still a very formidable castle. And if Bolton would neither have been defeated by the winter nor by his own supplies running out before Stannis' supplies came to an end then Stannis would still have had the option to give battle without Bolton having the advantage of Winterfell.

Furthermore, with Bolton thinking Stannis has only a small force which is besieging the Dreadfort Stannis might even have surprised the Boltons in a surprise attack and crushed them. At the least, Stannis could have tried to destroy their supplies in a surprise attack before the Boltons realized where Stannis was. This would have made a successful siege even more unlikely.

Either way, boldness is not always the best idea.

I never said it is. But here we've Jon -- a guy who was taught by Ned and who has shown to understand the North much better than Stannis -- arguing that boldness was _necessary_ when Jon had earlier advised against boldness and gave Stannis most of his army thereby.

I'm not sure if you are taking into consideration the fact that the snowstorm slowed the march to a crawl. They should have reached Winterfell either just before or just after Roose arrived, but the snowstorm put that notion to bed.

The snowstorm is part of my argument. It's very well possible that if Stannis would have moved earlier and quicker that he would have avoided being caught in the open by the snowstorm. You might then say it was authorial punishment for being not daring enough. Though I also think Stannis might well have arrived later than Bolton even without the snowstorm whereas he could have arrived much earlier than Bolton if he would have moved earlier and quicker. If he would have made securing Winterfell as fast as possible his absolute priority.

Robert was bold, but he was also foolish. Things worked out well for him, but that was as much due to the incompetence of his opponents as well as his battle prowess. ... GRRM is showing us is that Stannis is unlike Robert, and depending on one's opinion of him, that could be either a good or a bad thing.

I didn't want to suggest that Robert was necessarily a better commander than Stannis. They each have/had their strengths and weaknesses. Robert had the good fortune that he had Ned, Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn on his side who may have tempered his own boldness with caution, thereby making Robert's boldness into an asset when appropriate and less of a problem when it was tempered by the others.

As to taking King's Landing before investing SE and trying to win the stormlords and the Reach, Stannis wouldn't have had to hold it if he were threatened by Renly ... or he could have done the same he planned to do when he actually confronted Renly in ACoK.

I mean, Stannis wasn't exactly in a great position when he was caught by Renly in ACoK, or? I fail to see how trying to take a formidable castle like SE was so much better than having taken the Iron Throne. This would have improved his political position because the guy who holds the Iron Throne seems more powerful and legitimate and he could also have struck a blow against important assets of the Lannisters in the bargain.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Has anyone mentioned this...

There's a very convenient river that runs into the Wolfswood all the way from White Harbour...

We know the manderly's have ships secreted up there. We know the Manderly's are planning - actively planning - to betray Bolton. To do this they'd need men, horses, and supplies at the ready.

They no longer have to worry about Frey spies.

I'd suggest Glover is still in White Harbour preparing and ready to lead Manderly's troops into battle. He would have heard that Stannis has marched from Deepwood Motte.

Boom.

That's a good thought. It was strange when Manderly was talking about his fleet, and basically telling Davos that they're no good on the open sea. That's kind of odd, isn't it? Why build ships that aren't really seaworthy? But the river theory answers that question very well. Nice.

[Lord of War]

I would just like to point out to the people who say that Stannis didn't "win" at Storms End, that he did. His job was to hold onto the fortress at all costs until help came to tie up forces and he did that. Robert's Rebellion would have been real short if Stannis had been a weaker man and surrendered, thus allowing Mace Tyrell to join his huge army with Rhaegar's and smash Robert on the Trident.